March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

Reading about 100 $ pricecuts for PS4 is crazy. Expecting 50 $/€ is reasonable in this holiday season to fight Halo/bundles and pricecuts from MS but 100 $ is like a desperate measure to fight hard times. Doesn't seem like Sony is in this (desperate) postion, even if MS "wins" two" months in US in the holiday season.

50 $/€ + a good game bundle is going to boost PS4 enough to keep MS at bay.

Is there a list of console pricecuts for the big three (N,MS, Sony) over the times?
 
Donos said:
Reading about 100 $ pricecuts for PS4 is crazy. Expecting 50 $/€ is reasonable in this holiday season to fight Halo/bundles and pricecuts from MS but 100 $ is like a desperate measure to fight hard times. Doesn't seem like Sony is in this postion, even if MS "wins" two" months in US in the holiday season.

50 $/€ + a good game bundle is going to boost PS4 enough to keep MS at bay.

Is there a list of console pricecuts for the big three (N,MS, Sony) over the times?
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100$ would not be desperation. It would be a statement.
 
ZhugeEX said:
Exactly just like it was in the PS1 / PS2 era.

I'm still undecided on how much they'll knock off $399
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Yeah, it's like people have forgotten that PlayStation has a history of $100 price cuts. Whether it will get one this year is debatable obviously, but it isn't ridiculous to think that it might. I wish we knew what the profit margins were on the PS4 hardware, that would make it a whole lot easier to guess if they are going to cut $50 or $100, either way I think it's very likely they will drop the price this year before the holiday.
 
slavesnyder said:
100$ would not be desperation. It would be a statement.
Click to expand...

What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
 
Donos said:
What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
Click to expand...

Well, it's about selling more consoles --> more $$$ from software / licenses / PS+, etc.
It's not about making money from hardware alone.
 
Donos said:
What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
Click to expand...
Maybe it was in the business plan already from the beginning. Since now you could get the impression that Sony knows exactly what to do. So, the usual shareholder argument we hear about Xbox is not as hard. Also, I guess if one division of Sony gained confidence of the shareholders it would be PS.
Maybe it would be wise to lower the price and broaden the audience even more, as now should be the time to expand onto households with kids and lower income. And it is sometimes smart to change into the next gear before the motor starts to make strange noises.
Always keep in mind that this gen a huge percentage of consoles will get a subscription. So more consoles means more subscriptions means more money.
Maybe I am wrong and Sony prefer the 100 extra bucks. I could understand that. We will see.
 
Donos said:
What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
Click to expand...

PS4 is 399$ with one game and it had plenty of other offers lately (PS camera, Bloodborne, free game of 3 choices, etc). I bought a PS4 with GTAV and Watch Dogs for 399€ last year in Europe.

Selling the standalone version for 299$ wouldn't be that big of a drop. And entering at year three it would be sensible thing to do to keep increasing the sales. Actual shipments are great for year one and two, but to reach the heights of the PS2 they need to drop the price.
 
Donos said:
What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
Click to expand...

That is exactly why you do it.
 
Donos said:
What do you think Shareholders would think about such a statement? Cut 1/4 of the price from a console which is selling good (even with no gamezzz)?
MS so rich, they could buy Take2 and Rockstar to make a statement... why they don't do it? (weak analogy, i know)

A 299 $ PS4, this year, would set new sales records and shatter retail no doubt but i really don't see any chance for it.
Click to expand...
Whether the bolded statement is a joke or not, I can't take this post seriously because of it. Or any other posts with the same statement. The PS4 just got a critically acclaimed game last month and some people still think the PS4 has no games? What would they call the XB1's library then?
 
Also the PS4 isnt on track to sell in the same capacity as the PS1 or PS2 at the moment. A price drop will potentially increase sales to that point.
 
ZhugeEX said:
Also the PS4 isnt on track to sell in the same capacity as the PS1 or PS2 at the moment. A price drop will potentially increase sales to that point.
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Huh? Isn't the PS4 selling better than the PS1 by quite a large margin? Didn't the PS1 take more than 9 years to reach 100 million? I'm quite confident the PS4 can reach that in six years or less.
 
Javin98 said:
Huh? Isn't the PS4 selling better than the PS1 by quite a large margin? Didn't the PS1 take more than 9 years to reach 100 million? I'm quite confident the PS4 can reach that in six years or less.
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My point is that it wont have the capacity to sell that by staying at $399 for the next few years.
 
Super_Cobra said:
Hasn't Sony stated many times that the ps4 is their best selling console of all time?
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Yes, but Xbone will sell more than Xbox1 + Gamecube, home console space has shrank a bit after so many alternative ways of accessing casual gaming, majority of games are multiplatforms, and finally PC has become more streamlined and friendlier to newcomers.

IMO, PS4 does not have chance of surpassing PS2. That system was defacto ruler from the moment it appeared, with so many developers created games only for that system and no other. 100M is realistic target for PS4 if it's successor comes in 2020. 120M is possible, and over 120M... only if things like VR get very popular on PS4.
 
Javin98 said:
Oh, that makes a lot more sense. If it stays at $399 this holiday season, I'm quite sure that the XB1 will win by a landslide.
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I doubt it will be by a landslide if the xbone stays at $349. MS would have to drop the price again. Currently the $399 ps4 is outselling the $349 xbone.
 
Super_Cobra said:
Hasn't Sony stated many times that the ps4 is their best selling console of all time?
Click to expand...

It techincally is, but part of that is because the PS2 was Japan only for over half a year.
If you compare both on a November to November period it's behind. Japanese sales aren't good yet unlike PS2 so it's still very respectable.
 
Super_Cobra said:
I doubt it will be by a landslide if the xbone stays at $349. MS would have to drop the price again. Currently the $399 ps4 is outselling the $349 xbone.
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Do you really think Microsoft won't drop the price again? I'm willing to bet we'll see insane deals again this holiday season.
 
Javin98 said:
Do you really think Microsoft won't drop the price again? I'm willing to bet we'll see insane deals again this holiday season.
Click to expand...

Maybe. Cut Xbone to 299$, bundle it with free Rise Of The Tomb Raider... And i think that's a huge money loss. Especially when MS funded the development + they paid exclusivity + PC and PS4 version cancelation
 
Conduit said:
Maybe. Cut Xbone to 299$, bundle it with free Rise Of The Tomb Raider... And i think that's a huge money loss. Especially when MS funded the development + they paid exclusivity + PC and PS4 version cancelation
Click to expand...
I was thinking more like a $299 bundle with Halo 5. But if Microsoft really is desperate enough, they may actually have a Halo 5+Halo MCC bundle for $299.
 
Javin98 said:
Do you really think Microsoft won't drop the price again? I'm willing to bet we'll see insane deals again this holiday season.
Click to expand...

Oh I know they will. It's pretty much the only way they can win the holiday. But if they don't drop the price, and Sony does to $349, you can bet who will win by a landslide.
Halo 5 will sell a ton too. So maybe they won't have to cut the price when they have their biggest IP coming.
 
Super_Cobra said:
Oh I know they will. It's pretty much the only way they can win the holiday. But if they don't drop the price, and Sony does to $349, you can bet who will win by a landslide.
Halo 5 will sell a ton too. So maybe they won't have to cut the price when they have their biggest IP coming.
Click to expand...
To be honest, I don't think a price drop to $349 is enough for the PS4 to win by a landslide. Furthermore, I also don't think that it will be enough to significantly boost sales after the holiday season. And like you said, Halo 5 is coming out in October and it will move tons of XB1's. These reasons are why I think slashing the price of the PS4 to $299 is a wise choice.
And I'm getting one in December, so I would love a bigger price cut :P
.

michaelius said:
Sony can counter this with unooficial price drops and black friday deals.
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I'm expecting them to, unlike last year's November. A $349 bundle with GOW3 and the rumored Uncharted trilogy bundle will do wonders.
 
Javin98 said:
To be honest, I don't think a price drop to $349 is enough for the PS4 to win by a landslide. Furthermore, I also don't think that it will be enough to significantly boost sales after the holiday season. And like you said, Halo 5 is coming out in October and it will move tons of XB1's. These reasons are why I think slashing the price of the PS4 to $299 is a wise choice.
And I'm getting one in December, so I would love a bigger price cut :P
.


I'm expecting them to, unlike last year's November. A $349 bundle with GOW3 and the rumored Uncharted trilogy bundle will do wonders.
Click to expand...

I expect a drop to $299. Official or not.
 
Javin98 said:
Whether the bolded statement is a joke or not, I can't take this post seriously because of it. Or any other posts with the same statement. The PS4 just got a critically acclaimed game last month and some people still think the PS4 has no games? What would they call the XB1's library then?
Click to expand...

Clearly just a pun at all the "PS4 doesn't deserve the high sales because no (exclusive) games" statements from gaf. That's why i put a few more zzzzz behind it to make it clear, that i don't mean it serious :) .

If they (officially) drop PS4 to 299 $ this year, i'm going to wear a Knack avatar for all of 2016 !
 
StrongBlackVine said:
I expect a drop to $299. Official or not.
Click to expand...
So do I. A price drop to $349 is just too insignificant IMO.

Donos said:
Clearly just a pun at all the "PS4 doesn't deserve the high sales because no (exclusive) games" statements from gaf. That's why i put a few more zzzzz behind it to make it clear, that i don't mean it serious :) .

If they (officially) drop PS4 to 299 $ this year, i'm going to wear a Knack avatar for all of 2016 !
Click to expand...
Someone save this post! Another person soon to join the Knack army! Anyway, thanks for clarifying. I just wonder how people can say PS4 has no games with a straight face.
 
Donos said:
Clearly just a pun at all the "PS4 doesn't deserve the high sales because no (exclusive) games" statements from gaf. That's why i put a few more zzzzz behind it to make it clear, that i don't mean it serious :) .

If they (officially) drop PS4 to 299 $ this year, i'm going to wear a Knack avatar for all of 2016 !
Click to expand...

lol, bookmarked
 
I don't see a price drop for the holidays for PS4....when Sony does do a PS4 drop, i suspect its going to be a permanent one. They don't want to do what XB1 did and just have less demand when they increase the price again. And also, permanently loosing a hundred dollars every sale i'm assuming is not that appealing either

So they have to be absolutely ready when they plan to do that
 
Inuhanyou said:
I don't see a price drop for the holidays for PS4....when Sony does do a PS4 drop, i suspect its going to be a permanent one. They don't want to do what XB1 did and just have less demand when they increase the price again. And also, permanently loosing a hundred dollars every sale i'm assuming is not that appealing either

So they have to be absolutely ready when they plan to do that
Click to expand...

299 and a new model at E3 2015
Let's go.
 
Inuhanyou said:
I don't see a price drop for the holidays for PS4....when Sony does do a PS4 drop, i suspect its going to be a permanent one. They don't want to do what XB1 did and just have less demand when they increase the price again. And also, permanently loosing a hundred dollars every sale i'm assuming is not that appealing either

So they have to be absolutely ready when they plan to do that
Click to expand...
Which is when exactly? The PS4 has now been in the market for 17 months. The PS2, as incredible as its sales were, got a price drop in 18 months. In October 2015, the PS4 will be in the market for 23 months, which I think is perfect for a price drop. And you can't directly compare the XB1's situation to the PS4. Sony isn't dropping the price to get market share like Microsoft was.
 
Javin98 said:
Which is when exactly? The PS4 has now been in the market for 17 months. The PS2, as incredible as its sales were, got a price drop in 18 months. In October 2015, the PS4 will be in the market for 23 months, which I think is perfect for a price drop. And you can't directly compare the XB1's situation to the PS4. Sony isn't dropping the price to get market share like Microsoft was.
Click to expand...

The PS2 was in an entirely different situation, precedent isn't really all that applicable when this gen is not even close to being the same, nor the industry at large as back then.

I'm just expecting Sony to wait till they can make significant HW changes to lower the cost of the unit before passing those savings onto consumers.

Whether it be reducing their ram chips, lowering down to 16/14nm or what have you.

Until then, i only expect bundles with games and peripherals to make up for that. If i had to guess a date, maybe E3 next year with a hundred dollar price drop on top.
 
The PS1, PS2, and PS3 all had their first price drop in Q1 of thier FY. If they were planning to do a permanent one this year, I could see it coming in time for Arkham Knight.
 
stryke said:
They've already announced the price of the bundles.
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I don't think anyone will mind if the bundles end up being cheaper than originally advertised. Sony obviously cannot announce a $300-$350 price point for the bundles b/c then it gives away their price cut and you get almost 3 months of dead sales.

MS did similar last year where they announced the Assassin's Creed bundle for $400, then two weeks later announced that XB1 would be $350 for the holidays and dropped the price of the bundle.
 
First time getting into this game:

5 week of sales ( last month was 4 and PS4 outsold Xone almost 70k )
And this cycle Bloodborne was released. I would be shocked if PS4 didn't do 100k+ more than Xone this month.

[PS4] 410K
[XB1] 270K
[3DS] 280K
[WiiU] 75K

[Bloodborne] 375K
 
I think Xbox had some bundle prices announced before their 'temporary' price drop last year, right?
Example: 1tb CoD bundle announced at $499 in August, reduced to $449 in October.
 
Inuhanyou said:
The PS2 was in an entirely different situation, precedent isn't really all that applicable when this gen is not even close to being the same, nor the industry at large as back then.

I'm just expecting Sony to wait till they can make significant HW changes to lower the cost of the unit before passing those savings onto consumers.

Whether it be reducing their ram chips, lowering down to 16/14nm or what have you.

Until then, i only expect bundles with games and peripherals to make up for that. If i had to guess a date, maybe E3 next year with a hundred dollar price drop on top.
Click to expand...

Over 2.5 years with no price reduction is unheard of for any electronic device. No way to stays $399 that long.
 
KillerMan91 said:
Financial situation of Sony has nothing to do with the decision to make $100 price cut or not.
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What?? It has EVERYTHING to do with the financial situation of Sony. Atm - this is Sony's cake and one of its greatest performers and you can bet that they are exploring every avenue for gains/losses with price drops. We don't even know the profit margins of the machine. Hypothetically speaking, what If they were to drop by $100 and LOSE on every console they sell? Right now - Sony AS A WHOLE are trying to re-establish themselves and become a profitable company.
 
vin-buc said:
What?? It has EVERYTHING to do with the financial situation of Sony. Atm - this is Sony's cake and one of its greatest performers and you can bet that they are exploring every avenue for gains/losses with price drops. We don't even know the profit margins of the machine. Hypothetically speaking, what If they were to drop by $100 and LOSE on every console they sell? Right now - Sony AS A WHOLE are trying to re-establish themselves and become a profitable company.
Click to expand...

Cerny said it was designed with price cuts in mind. If they can't drop $100 without taking a loss after two years on the market then his design failed.

PlayStation should not become a loss leader again, but they absolutely should go for the maximum market saturation possible while staying profitable.
 
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