March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th

The way I see it, Sony will cut the price when the PS4 BOM significantly goes down. We know 8gbit gddr5 chips are on the way which would cut the amount of chips used in half also they may have 20nm APU this year as well (same with MS). So imo there will be a price drop at the end of this year or Q1 2016. I do expect Sony to create a 1TB sku sooner or later though.
 
The way I see it, Sony will cut the price when the PS4 BOM significantly goes down. We know 8gbit gddr5 chips are on the way which would cut the amount of chips used in half also they may have 20nm APU this year as well (same with MS). So imo there will be a price drop at the end of this year or Q1 2016. I do expect Sony to create a 1TB sku sooner or later though.

I could see them cutting price in Spring 2016 with Uncharted 4.
 
What do you mean with the bold? I stated something they did back in 2002. How am I thinking too much about them?

Also the PS2 price cut wasn't planned for E3 seeing as it was before it and it was put in "effective immediately".

And to your last statement, yeah of course? Sony 2015 is different to Sony 2002, and they know they don't have to worry about the Xbox.

I mean that instead of thinking that a PS4 price cut depends on how their sales are going versus Xbox like you said here:

Now that Sony know they will stay in first place for quite some time, they don't need a price cut yet.

You should think about Sony's own goals.
Sony sold what...18m PS4 in the first year?
I think that trying to keep the business at least flat in the second year instead of deflating so soon is a big concern/goal for them and that has nothing to do with how Xbox is doing relatively to them.
If we think about how they can truly improve their profits, which is only by selling a huge amount of games and subscriptions, that can only be achieved by increasing the hardware adoption rate significantly so that all the new customers buy games, PS+ subcriptions and other contents among with their new console.
This is something they're really after and again, Xbox has nothing to do with it, they need growth for themselves.

These are the reasons that led to the PS2 price cut in 2001, 18 months after launch, they didn't care at all about the OG Xbox.
Also the price cut was announced a few days before E3, it was meant to be a E3 announcement, they did a bad trick to MS to not wait for their conference so that MS looked like they were reacting to them while MS was planning to cut the price as well.
But again those events are pointless, Sony wanted to drive their sales, sell more games and make more profits, they certainly weren't responding to a competitor which they considered in an inferior league in 2002.
 
But the PS4 still sold a hell of a lot during those Holidays, all without resorting to mad bundling and steep price cuts.

On one hand, yes. They still got to sell about 1.9m consoles in NA in two months (Nov/ Dec 14).

Otoh, they were outsold by about 600k units, which is potentially 600k households that won't spend money on the PSN or get PS+, PSNow ...

(I do know that a lot of these 600k units could be multi console households, hence the "potentially").

Why do you think MS fights so hard and (likely) loses money hand over fist during that time of the year in order to get people on their ecosystem?
 
Something will be crushed this month for sure, it's either the XB1 or (more likely) many people's hopes.
 
Whatever sales Sony lost to MS during the holidays they're getting back now. The sales gap should be back to a 1million+ soon. Summer? It's good they didn't have go to the lengths MS did all the while still selling a decent amount.

And lets not forget WW they didn't lose anything.
 
Here are my numbers (for the first time ever):

[PS4] 475K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 230K
[WIU] 88K

For all the posts above about MSFT/SONY pricecuts this holiday (even though off topic) - i will say MS has a potential wildcard of a system redesign. There were some rumors circulating about this not too long back. Not sure if true - but this can be a big change especially if they get it to look like the 360S (with another pricecut to $299). If this happens - i can see Sony drop to $329 - $349 with games bundled. I'm sure Sony is working on redesigning their system as well but I haven't read anything that would lead me to believe it's happening this year.

I don't think Sony drops by $100 - it just seems too much being that they're doing very well.
 
oh that's a nice post, really telling.

Thanks. It's telling how the Wii didn't even need to think about a price drop, yes the entry price was low but the demand was unprecedented.


Makes total sense for Sony to announce a price cut in late august being effective since 1st September with the MGSV launch.
I don't know if the announcement will be made at Gamescom this time because this year the show happens quite early, 5th August which is still full summer and not the right time to announce a price drop.

I would agree. I think the only times Sony will drop the price this year is June E3, or after Gamescom in August. And I'm leaning towards after Gamescom.

They cut they price days before MS was going to announce a price drop for the Xbox. They didn't do it to speed up hardware adoption rates, it was a reaction to make sure the Xbox could not get any steam from a price drop.

Actually it was the other way around.

Sony had sold more than 30 million PS2's and decided to capitalise by dropping the price to $199. Microsoft reacted to this and also steeply dropped the price of the Xbox to $199 from $299. Bearing in mind that MS were making a loss at $299.... the loss from selling at $199 would have been catastrophic.

It was Microsoft who reacted to Sony dropping the price and not Sony reacting to Microsoft.
 
It was Microsoft who reacted to Sony dropping the price and not Sony reacting to Microsoft.

Microsoft announced the price cut on the same week and rumours were floating around before Sony announcement.

I don't think Microsoft reacted to Sony. Maybe only in the sense of announce sooner, but they already planned to drop the price.
 
Microsoft announced the price cut on the same week and rumours were floating around before Sony announcement.

I don't think Microsoft reacted to Sony. Maybe only in the sense of announce sooner, but they already planned to drop the price.

But my point is that Sony didn't drop the price based on these rumours. Kaz Hirai even said that himself. The PS2 price cut was always designed to happen the way it did.

It wasn't clear how much Microsoft were going to drop the price and so when they dropped it to the same price as the PS2 it makes it look very reactionary. Especially as it cost them more than $299 to build the console and they dropped the price a full $100. Microsoft even said themselves they would drop the price to stay competitive with other consoles (the PS2) so that just confirms their price drop was a result of low sales compared to the PS2 and in reaction to the PS2.
 
Something will be crushed this month for sure, it's either the XB1 or (more likely) many people's hopes.

100k difference that most have predicted seems reasonable. It was 60k or so last month and this month was much better for PS4 with games(Bloodborne, Final Fantasy), good bundles(Batman/Bloodborne) and promptions (Gamestop trade-ins).
 
Wonder why it's so high.

People trying to #HUNTtheTRUTH?

#26 is high?

It likely will get higher as the AC bundle is phased out, but still I wouldn't use a ranking that low as any proof that Halo is doing work. It could be any game and do those numbers. Unity was not very good and that bundle sold like crazy.
 
Something will be crushed this month for sure, it's either the XB1 or (more likely) many people's hopes.
Console war galore.
It's not about getting crushed or losing hopes, it's only that Xbox had not much special to offer that month vs. Ps4. The wow-effect of pricedrop madness has worn off and it feels as if the One is hibernating. If those two consoles are close this month, like, less than 100k difference I would be surprised and it would be a moral win for MS.
Only really great thing about Xbox recently was Ori (your avatar), but to be honest, it's a beautiful paperweight compared to bloodborne and even to The Order.
 
#26 is high?

It likely will get higher as the AC bundle is phased out, but still I wouldn't use a ranking that low as any proof that Halo is doing work. It could be any game and do those numbers. Unity was not very good and that bundle sold like crazy.

#26 is high for where the MCC bundle was before.
 
But why take minor loses when you can make nearly 100$ in profits per console sold ?

With Sony selling something like 5-6 milions of consoles in Holiday season that's half a bilion of dollars of difference.

It is never about console hardware profits. Sony will want as many people on this console as fast as reasonably possible. They make their money from software sales and now PS+ sales. The more owners the more PS+ yearly revenue, more PS Now subs, more Music subs, more software sales. And let's not forget it will be even easier to get third party exclusives if you are at 40 million and the competition is at 18 million.

The price cut is happening this year. I have no doubt. I'm guessing they will have lika a 27m sold announcement at E3 and then announce the price drop. That gives the room to put out a standard $299 console for the holidays along with $349 bundles with games and other incentives.

I'm mostly wondering when they will start releasing larger HDD SKUs.
 
It is never about console hardware profits. Sony will want as many people on this console as fast as reasonably possible. They make their money from software sales and now PS+ sales. The more owners the more PS+ yearly revenue, more PS Now subs, more Music subs, more software sales. And let's not forget it will be even easier to get third party exclusives if you are at 40 million and the competition is at 18 million.

The price cut is happening this year. I have no doubt. I'm guessing they will have lika a 27m sold announcement at E3 and then announce the price drop. That gives the room to put out a standard $299 console for the holidays along with $349 bundles with games and other incentives.

I'm mostly wondering when they will start releasing larger HDD SKUs.

Well I agree there will be price cut but not during E3. Sony announced pretty much all PS3 price cuts at Gamescom.
 
PS4- 415k
XB1- 205k
WiiU- 95k
3DS- 285k

March is traditionally lower than February(peak of tax season). PS4 will get a major boost from new releases. All console will decrease from Feb except PS4.
 
Late to the discussion slightly but a PS4 hardware refresh seems more likely than a straight price cut. $399 this fall with a 1TB harddrive, 2 controllers and/or camera and bundled software.
 
I was think 1 mil world wide was possible. Definitly not in just the US. We will have around 200k from Japan (for March, 150k week 1). I could see 400-500k in US. The question is will the rest of the world sell 300-400k we need to get over 1 mil.

oh ok, worldwide. Tbh I think it will sell around 300k in the US, not really sure worldwide as I have not looked into any data yet, except for the UK.
I hope it sells extremely well, put more than 100 hours and still going.
 
On one hand, yes. They still got to sell about 1.9m consoles in NA in two months (Nov/ Dec 14).

Otoh, they were outsold by about 600k units, which is potentially 600k households that won't spend money on the PSN or get PS+, PSNow ...

(I do know that a lot of these 600k units could be multi console households, hence the "potentially").

Why do you think MS fights so hard and (likely) loses money hand over fist during that time of the year in order to get people on their ecosystem?

Considering where we are right now -- strongest dollar in years, making the US market, which already was the biggest, even more important -- Sony's decision to let Microsoft come back last holiday season and even out the US market seems even more wrong.

It's hard to say without knowing the related increase in operational costs, but I wouldn't be surprised if the PS4 gets a price cut only in the US (or a bigger price cut than in the rest of the world) due to the strong dollar.
 
PS2 selling well and nevertheless Sony cut off PS2 price for 100$.

I understand it may be the historical precedent, but Sony is in a different financial situation. I hope they do shave $100 off and redesign the console. It'll move many units.

I just don't think it's going to happen especially if the XB1 can't outpace it at the current prices.
 
I understand it may be the historical precedent, but Sony is in a different financial situation. I hope they do shave $100 off and redesign the console. It'll move many units.

I just don't think it's going to happen especially if the XB1 can't outpace it at the current prices.

Financial situation of Sony has nothing to do with the decision to make $100 price cut or not. Price cuts are almost always made to make more money. Not to lose it. $100 price cut doesn't mean automatically less money for Sony. Price cut gives them greatly increased hw sales (with smaller margin but with more volume to make up for those smaller margins). It will also greatly increase sw sales and PS+ subscriptions. Sony will cut the price if they calculate they make more money from it than with current price and that time is coming.
 
Does anyone remember the Wii first official price cut?

Yes. They did it 6 months too late in the U.S. and a year too late in Japan. They were drunk on profits and got full of themselves. Their hubris went a long way to killing the Wii.

Well the Wii launched at $249 which was lower than any console launch after 2000.

2001, but yeah. (excluding handhelds)

March NPD bonus: predict the sales of Bloodborne Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.

I don't like to include items with really low sales, as it's easy to be way off in % even though it's not *way* off in just units.

PS4- 415k
XB1- 205k
WiiU- 95k
3DS- 285k

Use the format in the OP, if you want your entry counted.

It will also greatly increase sw sales and PS+ subscriptions.

$100 price cut with 3-month PS+ subscription on current model and new model at current price?
 
it's just a joke, you don't even take software for predictions anyway :P

Used to back when we could get the odd missing software total as part of the NPD agreement. When that went away, the software predictions did, too.

I don't think CNSteam is going to warm any water with its sales, though. The patch is nice, and I look forward to picking it up for $20 down the line to play with the FE amiibo! Maybe a combo pack with FE themed n3DSXL, CNSteam digital and FEIf digital... *drools* (^_^)
 
The way I see it, Sony will cut the price when the PS4 BOM significantly goes down. We know 8gbit gddr5 chips are on the way which would cut the amount of chips used in half also they may have 20nm APU this year as well (same with MS). So imo there will be a price drop at the end of this year or Q1 2016. I do expect Sony to create a 1TB sku sooner or later though.

I don't think Sony and Microsoft will be saving all that much at 20nm with wafer costs increasing ~45% over 28nm. 20nm kinda messed with Moore's Law.
 
I don't think Sony and Microsoft will be saving all that much at 20nm with wafer costs increasing ~45% over 28nm. 20nm kinda messed with Moore's Law.

I doubt they will go with 20nm and it is more likely they will go straight to 14nm instead. The 20nm node is fine for low power stuff like mobile SOCs but anything bigger or more power hungry than that is a no go as it is not a high performance node.

Besides savings will tend to come from the price reduction in GDDR5 and a lower complexity motherboard once they can get the 8GB with just 8 chips instead of 16.

This year I see a drop to $299, the question is timing and that will depend on their internal targets and forecasts / predictions.
 
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