The way I see it, Sony will cut the price when the PS4 BOM significantly goes down. We know 8gbit gddr5 chips are on the way which would cut the amount of chips used in half also they may have 20nm APU this year as well (same with MS). So imo there will be a price drop at the end of this year or Q1 2016. I do expect Sony to create a 1TB sku sooner or later though.
March 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes April 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I could see them cutting price in Spring 2016 with Uncharted 4.
I mean that instead of thinking that a PS4 price cut depends on how their sales are going versus Xbox like you said here:
You should think about Sony's own goals.
Sony sold what...18m PS4 in the first year?
I think that trying to keep the business at least flat in the second year instead of deflating so soon is a big concern/goal for them and that has nothing to do with how Xbox is doing relatively to them.
If we think about how they can truly improve their profits, which is only by selling a huge amount of games and subscriptions, that can only be achieved by increasing the hardware adoption rate significantly so that all the new customers buy games, PS+ subcriptions and other contents among with their new console.
This is something they're really after and again, Xbox has nothing to do with it, they need growth for themselves.
These are the reasons that led to the PS2 price cut in 2001, 18 months after launch, they didn't care at all about the OG Xbox.
Also the price cut was announced a few days before E3, it was meant to be a E3 announcement, they did a bad trick to MS to not wait for their conference so that MS looked like they were reacting to them while MS was planning to cut the price as well.
But again those events are pointless, Sony wanted to drive their sales, sell more games and make more profits, they certainly weren't responding to a competitor which they considered in an inferior league in 2002.
On one hand, yes. They still got to sell about 1.9m consoles in NA in two months (Nov/ Dec 14).
Otoh, they were outsold by about 600k units, which is potentially 600k households that won't spend money on the PSN or get PS+, PSNow ...
(I do know that a lot of these 600k units could be multi console households, hence the "potentially").
Why do you think MS fights so hard and (likely) loses money hand over fist during that time of the year in order to get people on their ecosystem?
Whatever sales Sony lost to MS during the holidays they're getting back now. The sales gap should be back to a 1million+ soon. Summer? It's good they didn't have go to the lengths MS did all the while still selling a decent amount.
And lets not forget WW they didn't lose anything.
And lets not forget WW they didn't lose anything.
Here are my numbers (for the first time ever):
[PS4] 475K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 230K
[WIU] 88K
For all the posts above about MSFT/SONY pricecuts this holiday (even though off topic) - i will say MS has a potential wildcard of a system redesign. There were some rumors circulating about this not too long back. Not sure if true - but this can be a big change especially if they get it to look like the 360S (with another pricecut to $299). If this happens - i can see Sony drop to $329 - $349 with games bundled. I'm sure Sony is working on redesigning their system as well but I haven't read anything that would lead me to believe it's happening this year.
I don't think Sony drops by $100 - it just seems too much being that they're doing very well.
[PS4] 475K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 230K
[WIU] 88K
For all the posts above about MSFT/SONY pricecuts this holiday (even though off topic) - i will say MS has a potential wildcard of a system redesign. There were some rumors circulating about this not too long back. Not sure if true - but this can be a big change especially if they get it to look like the 360S (with another pricecut to $299). If this happens - i can see Sony drop to $329 - $349 with games bundled. I'm sure Sony is working on redesigning their system as well but I haven't read anything that would lead me to believe it's happening this year.
I don't think Sony drops by $100 - it just seems too much being that they're doing very well.
Thanks. It's telling how the Wii didn't even need to think about a price drop, yes the entry price was low but the demand was unprecedented.
I would agree. I think the only times Sony will drop the price this year is June E3, or after Gamescom in August. And I'm leaning towards after Gamescom.
Actually it was the other way around.
Sony had sold more than 30 million PS2's and decided to capitalise by dropping the price to $199. Microsoft reacted to this and also steeply dropped the price of the Xbox to $199 from $299. Bearing in mind that MS were making a loss at $299.... the loss from selling at $199 would have been catastrophic.
It was Microsoft who reacted to Sony dropping the price and not Sony reacting to Microsoft.
Welfare
Member
Microsoft announced the price cut on the same week and rumours were floating around before Sony announcement.
I don't think Microsoft reacted to Sony. Maybe only in the sense of announce sooner, but they already planned to drop the price.
But my point is that Sony didn't drop the price based on these rumours. Kaz Hirai even said that himself. The PS2 price cut was always designed to happen the way it did.
It wasn't clear how much Microsoft were going to drop the price and so when they dropped it to the same price as the PS2 it makes it look very reactionary. Especially as it cost them more than $299 to build the console and they dropped the price a full $100. Microsoft even said themselves they would drop the price to stay competitive with other consoles (the PS2) so that just confirms their price drop was a result of low sales compared to the PS2 and in reaction to the PS2.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
100k difference that most have predicted seems reasonable. It was 60k or so last month and this month was much better for PS4 with games(Bloodborne, Final Fantasy), good bundles(Batman/Bloodborne) and promptions (Gamestop trade-ins).
StrongBlackVine
Banned
#26 is high?
It likely will get higher as the AC bundle is phased out, but still I wouldn't use a ranking that low as any proof that Halo is doing work. It could be any game and do those numbers. Unity was not very good and that bundle sold like crazy.
slavesnyder
Member
Console war galore.
It's not about getting crushed or losing hopes, it's only that Xbox had not much special to offer that month vs. Ps4. The wow-effect of pricedrop madness has worn off and it feels as if the One is hibernating. If those two consoles are close this month, like, less than 100k difference I would be surprised and it would be a moral win for MS.
Only really great thing about Xbox recently was Ori (your avatar), but to be honest, it's a beautiful paperweight compared to bloodborne and even to The Order.
Welfare
Member
#26 is high for where the MCC bundle was before.
Are you from the future?
Welfare
Member
Are you not?
Zhuge is from a parallel dimension where beings communicate through numbers, statistics and graphs, and where Aquamarine rules over her subjects without mercy
IAmRandom31
Banned
It is never about console hardware profits. Sony will want as many people on this console as fast as reasonably possible. They make their money from software sales and now PS+ sales. The more owners the more PS+ yearly revenue, more PS Now subs, more Music subs, more software sales. And let's not forget it will be even easier to get third party exclusives if you are at 40 million and the competition is at 18 million.
The price cut is happening this year. I have no doubt. I'm guessing they will have lika a 27m sold announcement at E3 and then announce the price drop. That gives the room to put out a standard $299 console for the holidays along with $349 bundles with games and other incentives.
I'm mostly wondering when they will start releasing larger HDD SKUs.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Did any one think that bundle would not eventually become the defacto Xbox One. I guess the trailer may have helped, but I still it could be any major AAA game in the box with the same result(not impressive thus far).
I'm surprised it is climbing on the hourly charts as well. Not sure why a bundle people had little interest in last month is suddenly gaining interest.
KillerMan91
Member
Well I agree there will be price cut but not during E3. Sony announced pretty much all PS3 price cuts at Gamescom.
Welfare
Member
theprodigy
Member
March NPD bonus: predict the sales of Bloodborne Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.
Oooo, you make me laugh.
PS2 selling well and nevertheless Sony cut off PS2 price for 100$.
tokilamockingbrd
Member
PS4- 415k
XB1- 205k
WiiU- 95k
3DS- 285k
March is traditionally lower than February(peak of tax season). PS4 will get a major boost from new releases. All console will decrease from Feb except PS4.
XB1- 205k
WiiU- 95k
3DS- 285k
March is traditionally lower than February(peak of tax season). PS4 will get a major boost from new releases. All console will decrease from Feb except PS4.
tokilamockingbrd
Member
particulary baffling because the ACU bundle has a deal going right now for a discounted COD:AW.
Really? I don't see it on Amazon....
tokilamockingbrd
Member
your right, they just dropped it. Now it comes with a discounted XBox live card.
Yep, that's what I just saw. Discounted COD AW sounds like a better deal though.
Killerhertz
Neo Member
Bloodborne= 1,100,000 got a feeling
Yaser Tech
Member
There is absolutely no way.
tokilamockingbrd
Member
I was think 1 mil world wide was possible. Definitly not in just the US. We will have around 200k from Japan (for March, 150k week 1). I could see 400-500k in US. The question is will the rest of the world sell 300-400k we need to get over 1 mil.
Yaser Tech
Member
oh ok, worldwide. Tbh I think it will sell around 300k in the US, not really sure worldwide as I have not looked into any data yet, except for the UK.
I hope it sells extremely well, put more than 100 hours and still going.
Considering where we are right now -- strongest dollar in years, making the US market, which already was the biggest, even more important -- Sony's decision to let Microsoft come back last holiday season and even out the US market seems even more wrong.
It's hard to say without knowing the related increase in operational costs, but I wouldn't be surprised if the PS4 gets a price cut only in the US (or a bigger price cut than in the rest of the world) due to the strong dollar.
I understand it may be the historical precedent, but Sony is in a different financial situation. I hope they do shave $100 off and redesign the console. It'll move many units.
I just don't think it's going to happen especially if the XB1 can't outpace it at the current prices.
KillerMan91
Member
Financial situation of Sony has nothing to do with the decision to make $100 price cut or not. Price cuts are almost always made to make more money. Not to lose it. $100 price cut doesn't mean automatically less money for Sony. Price cut gives them greatly increased hw sales (with smaller margin but with more volume to make up for those smaller margins). It will also greatly increase sw sales and PS+ subscriptions. Sony will cut the price if they calculate they make more money from it than with current price and that time is coming.
Yes. They did it 6 months too late in the U.S. and a year too late in Japan. They were drunk on profits and got full of themselves. Their hubris went a long way to killing the Wii.
2001, but yeah. (excluding handhelds)
I don't like to include items with really low sales, as it's easy to be way off in % even though it's not *way* off in just units.
Use the format in the OP, if you want your entry counted.
$100 price cut with 3-month PS+ subscription on current model and new model at current price?
RealityPales
Member
Hoping for good Bloodborne numbers!
1.1 million definitely sounds doable. I'm predicting 350K for Bloodborne in the US in March. We know it did like 200K-250K in Japan and UK was, like, 170K, right?
theprodigy
Member
it's just a joke, you don't even take software for predictions anyway
Used to back when we could get the odd missing software total as part of the NPD agreement. When that went away, the software predictions did, too.
I don't think CNSteam is going to warm any water with its sales, though. The patch is nice, and I look forward to picking it up for $20 down the line to play with the FE amiibo! Maybe a combo pack with FE themed n3DSXL, CNSteam digital and FEIf digital... *drools* (^_^)
I don't think Sony and Microsoft will be saving all that much at 20nm with wafer costs increasing ~45% over 28nm. 20nm kinda messed with Moore's Law.
Cthulhu_Steev
Member
Zhuge is from a parallel dimension where beings communicate through numbers, statistics and graphs, and where Aquamarine rules over her subjects without mercy
It would be nice if he could pop over to the other thread and help that guy to play Interstellar on his xbone.
I doubt they will go with 20nm and it is more likely they will go straight to 14nm instead. The 20nm node is fine for low power stuff like mobile SOCs but anything bigger or more power hungry than that is a no go as it is not a high performance node.
Besides savings will tend to come from the price reduction in GDDR5 and a lower complexity motherboard once they can get the 8GB with just 8 chips instead of 16.
This year I see a drop to $299, the question is timing and that will depend on their internal targets and forecasts / predictions.
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 235k
[PS4] 320k
[WIU] 95k
[XB1] 250k
[PS4] 320k
[WIU] 95k
[XB1] 250k