I've been wondering a little bit...do you guys think that Nintendo has implemented a bit more behind the scenes of item probabilities beyond just your current place in the race? I've gotten the feeling that there's maybe a small sense of "escalation" in when certain powerhouse-items will appear. It's so rare to see something like a blue shell or lightning appear early in a race, but by the time you reach the third lap, all bets are off. Similarly it seems like it's easy to get a coin or similar low-level things right at the start of a race, regardless of your out-of-gate position.
I've had some other theories about item balance being swayed based on your performance within races (like, how long you're in a lead position vs. how long you're in the back of the pack), but in retrospect that's probably just some residual salt left over from my terrible performances yesterday. Think I'll spend tonight practicing time trials with a new setup, as much as I like the trolling potential of Morton in the cat cruiser, it's probably not an ideal racing combo.