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[Saruhashi]

Poland closes schoosl , only 25 cases.

Holland keeps them open , 300 cases.

We sacrifice, so you can learn how not to do it

#justflu #fuck #proudwarrior

I see what you are saying but there's two sides to this.

The virus will spread. Poland will have 300 cases eventually. Then 1000s. This is just the early stages.

So you decide to close schools. OK. For how long?
6 months? A year?
What are the knock on effects of closing all schools for X amount of time?
As X increases what are the further effects?

This is why some countries have decided to delay.
Basically they know there will be a window where it's reasonable for things to be shut down.
So they are trying to time that window.

Nobody will be able to stop this from spreading.
You can't keep everything shut down indefinitely.
All these measures can do is to slow down the spread for a limited period of time.

 

[sinnergy]

I see what you are saying but there's two sides to this.

The virus will spread. Poland will have 300 cases eventually. Then 1000s. This is just the early stages.

So you decide to close schools. OK. For how long?
6 months? A year?
What are the knock on effects of closing all schools for X amount of time?
As X increases what are the further effects?

This is why some countries have decided to delay.
Basically they know there will be a window where it's reasonable for things to be shut down.
So they are trying to time that window.

Nobody will be able to stop this from spreading.
You can't keep everything shut down indefinitely.
All these measures can do is to slow down the spread for a limited period of time.

As long as it takes , it’s that simple. See China / Italy .

That’s what governments do, govern. Take care of your people .

This is gonna bite us in the ass.

 

[betrayal]

I see what you are saying but there's two sides to this.

The virus will spread. Poland will have 300 cases eventually. Then 1000s. This is just the early stages.

So you decide to close schools. OK. For how long?
6 months? A year?
What are the knock on effects of closing all schools for X amount of time?
As X increases what are the further effects?

This is why some countries have decided to delay.
Basically they know there will be a window where it's reasonable for things to be shut down.
So they are trying to time that window.

Nobody will be able to stop this from spreading.
You can't keep everything shut down indefinitely.
All these measures can do is to slow down the spread for a limited period of time.

Lockdowns are there to stop the virus from spreading. If a lockdown of 2-4 weeks is maintained, then the disease will decrease sharply in the affected region within this period. You could say that you decrease the counter of active cases (because you prevent new cases), depending on the extent and length of the lockdown. Lockdowns are most effective in epicenters.

You can take China or South Korea as an example. There are currently ~19,000 active cases in China. These numbers continue to drop as active cases remain in quarantine.
The new infections are currently around 200 - 300 per week. Of course it is not possible to predict this exactly, but in the worst case scenario China starts again with a few hundred undetected infected people, which is the same like in December 2019 or January 2020. And so the whole thing repeats itself from the beginning, only that in the meantime the inhabitants are sensitized and therefore one can expect that the new spread is slower.
Of course, you still have to be much more cautious all over the country to prevent new epicenters, as might be the case in South Korea with the call center, for example.

In the end, lockdowns won't eradicate the virus (it's extremely unlikely), but they can kind of rewind the situation at the expense of the economy and gain time for new drugs, vaccinations or simply more capacity for ICU (Intensive Care Units).

 

[Saruhashi]

As long as it takes , it’s that simple. See China / Italy .

That’s what governments do, govern. Take care of your people .

This is gonna bite us in the ass.

"As long as it takes" just doesn't work.

In that case it's just going to bite us in the ass in different ways.
Lockdown too soon and for too long and you just create a whole range of other issues.

There are too many moving parts and thinking about the virus ALONE is not taking care of your people.

It's a juggling act and that's why you are seeing different countries deal with it in different ways.

Italy can't stay shut down forever.

The goal here is to slow the spread and that will, in turn, slow future outbreaks.

It's still up for debate exactly when and how restrictions should be rolled out.

 

[Chaplain]

"Giacomo Grasselli - a senior Italian government health official who is coordinating the network of intensive care units in Lombardy - explains the “critical” situation in Italy, brought about by the Covid-19 outbreak" (3/10/20)



"Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota." (3/10/20)



"In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Nicholas Christakis about the coronavirus pandemic. They discuss the likely effects on society, proactive vs reactive school closures, community transmission, false comparisons between coronavirus and flu, the imperative of social distancing, the timeline of the pandemic, Trump’s political messaging, the widespread distrust of expertise, the importance of “flattening the curve” of the epidemic, the possible failure of our healthcare system, gradations of personal response to this threat, and other topics." (3/10/20)

 

[betrayal]

Italy can't stay shut down forever.

The goal here is to slow the spread and that will, in turn, slow future outbreaks.

A successful lockdown leads to the number of cured patients exceeding the number of newly infected patients. This in turn reduces the number of active cases. Not only do you slow down the spread of the disease, you actively reduce the number of people infected.

It is NOT like this (simplified):
Day 1: 10.000 infected
Day 2: 13.000 infected
Day 3: 15.500 infected + containment
Day 4: 17.500 infected (during containment)
Day 5: 18.000 infected (during containment)


It actually IS like this (simplified):
Day 1: 10.000 infected
Day 2: 13.000 infected.
Day 3: 15.500 infected + containment
Day 4: 16.000 infected (during containment)
Day 5: 15.000 infected (during containment)


This development is no fantasy, but is documented by many other epedemas far before Corona. Let's take Italy, for example. If the lockdown is maintained, then nothing else can happen in Italy, other than that the number of active cases will start to decrease during the next 1-2 weeks.

 

[Pagusas]

A successful lockdown leads to the number of cured patients exceeding the number of newly infected patients. This in turn reduces the number of active cases. Not only do you slow down the spread of the disease, you actively reduce the number of people infected.

But that only works if the patients build immunity from being sick once they are cured, this virus seems to be able to re-infect the same people again, right?

 

[Eiknarf]

Great time to close borders to foreigners for good!!
Thank God!

 

[betrayal]

But that only works if the patients build immunity from being sick once they are cured, this virus seems to be able to re-infect the same people again, right?

There are 3 known cases where someone has been "reinfected". All 3 cases are assumed to be due to test errors etc. and all 3 have not been tested for antibodies. It is assumed that these people were never really recovered.

66.213 cured patients have not been reinfected so far.

Besides, I wasn't talking about immunization. This is currently far too low in total numbers to at least have a noticeable effect. It is much more the behaviour and precautions in everyday life that help to prevent the virus from spreading further. There have been various studies on influenza, for example, which have shown that the total number of flu infections has fallen by up to 50% in some regions, if people were sensitized to the correct manners and hygiene measures before the flu wave.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Spain is really going in

 

[All Hail C-Webb]

Great time to close borders to foreigners for good!!
Thank God!

If you're in the US, it's far more likely that countries will close their borders to us.

We are on pace to easily have the worst outbreak in the world.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Germany

Merkel believes 60-70% of Germany's population will be infected
From CNN's Stephanie Halasz


German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that authorities believed 60-70% of the population would eventually get infected by the novel coronavirus.

Speaking at a Berlin coronavirus news conference along with Germany's Health Minister Jens Spahn, Merkel said it was important not to overburden the health system.

She noted that every European country was affected, sending special thoughts to Italy in its fight against the virus.
Merkel said countries should focus on and support research, adding that Germany would deal with the crisis in a de-centralized manner.
German lawmakers will hold a meeting Thursday to coordinate regarding the crisis.

“We are in a situation where we don’t know many things, and what we don’t know, we have to take seriously,” Merkel said.

This is about protecting vulnerable people, she added.

Merkel believes 60-70% of Germany's population will be infected

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that authorities believed 60-70% of the population would eventually get infected by the novel coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

 

[E-Cat]

Great time to close borders to foreigners for good!!
Thank God!

Buddy, your banana republic level public healthcare will make you a greater hazard to the countries that you border than vice versa.

 

[betrayal]

Germany

Merkel believes 60-70% of Germany's population will be infected
From CNN's Stephanie Halasz


German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that authorities believed 60-70% of the population would eventually get infected by the novel coronavirus.

Speaking at a Berlin coronavirus news conference along with Germany's Health Minister Jens Spahn, Merkel said it was important not to overburden the health system.

She noted that every European country was affected, sending special thoughts to Italy in its fight against the virus.
Merkel said countries should focus on and support research, adding that Germany would deal with the crisis in a de-centralized manner.
German lawmakers will hold a meeting Thursday to coordinate regarding the crisis.

This is about protecting vulnerable people, she added.

Merkel believes 60-70% of Germany's population will be infected

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that authorities believed 60-70% of the population would eventually get infected by the novel coronavirus.

www.cnn.com

It must be added that the statement with the 60 to 70% is based on a period of two or more years, assuming that there will be no vaccine and that it is the absolute worst case scenario that can happen. Merkel's statement was taken from Christian Drosten, the chief virologist of the Berlin Charité, who also advises the government on this issue. This statement has already been known in Germany for about a week and has already met with much criticism from other virologists, who believe that the figures are far too high.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

At least 10 long-term care facilities in Washington state report coronavirus cases
From CNN’s Joe Sutton and Roxanne Garcia Bell

Health officials in Washington state have announced that at least 10 long-term care facilities have reported positive COVID-19 cases.
King County Public Health Department said officials were working with the care facilities where residents and/or employees had tested positive for the novel coronavirus.

At least 10 long-term care facilities in Washington state report coronavirus cases

Health officials in Washington state have announced that at least 10 long-term care facilities have reported positive COVID-19 cases.

www.cnn.com

Coronavirus is "almost a perfect killing machine" for elderly patients, US nursing home association head says
From CNN's Madeline Holcombe

Relatives and friends should not visit patients in nursing and assisted living centers as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread, the head of the United States' largest association of long-term and post-acute care providers told CNN.

"We are encouraging all people, including family members and loved ones, to not visit nursing homes and assisted living facilities," American Health Care Association President Mark Parkinson said Tuesday.

"Until we get this under control, our new guidance, as of today, is to family members, to loved ones: Don't visit the facilities; instead, come up with an alternate way to communicate," he said, including phone, text, FaceTime or Snapchat.

"The grim reality is that, for the elderly, COVID-19 is almost a perfect killing machine," Parkinson said.

Coronavirus is "almost a perfect killing machine" for elderly patients, US nursing home association head says

Relatives and friends should not visit patients in nursing and assisted living centers as the coronavirus outbreak continues to spread, the head of the United States' largest association of long-term and post-acute care providers told CNN.

www.cnn.com

 

[Liljagare]

I see what you are saying but there's two sides to this.

The virus will spread. Poland will have 300 cases eventually. Then 1000s. This is just the early stages.

So you decide to close schools. OK. For how long?
6 months? A year?
What are the knock on effects of closing all schools for X amount of time?
As X increases what are the further effects?

This is why some countries have decided to delay.
Basically they know there will be a window where it's reasonable for things to be shut down.
So they are trying to time that window.

Nobody will be able to stop this from spreading.
You can't keep everything shut down indefinitely.
All these measures can do is to slow down the spread for a limited period of time.

The point is to delay it, so that hospitals have a better chance of keeping up, instead of getting 10000 in a week, you hopefully get 1000, but over time, all the rest will get it, but at a slower pace.

That is how it's been explained, you still get probarly the same number in the end, but you give the healthcare systems a better chance at helping, instead of being overwhelmed all at once.

Flatten the curve I think the term is.

 

[Paracelsus]

After a sudden surge in infections (+1300 (!?)) Lombardy is going for full lockdown.
Other than the most basic necessities, everything is being shut down.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

It must be added that the statement with the 60 to 70% is based on a period of two or more years, assuming that there will be no vaccine and that it is the absolute worst case scenario that can happen. Merkel's statement was taken from Christian Drosten, the chief virologist of the Berlin Charité, who also advises the government on this issue. This statement has already been known in Germany for about a week and has already met with much criticism from other virologists, who believe that the figures are far too high.

Yep good point. That is why I try to post the whole blog post although I should try not to but I don't write the titles, but thanks for pointing that key part out since the Media seems to be going for the most alarming headlines no matter what they are reporting on.

I for one hope we have a vaccine in that time frame that works.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

These 3 New York-based talk shows will tape without studio audiences
From CNN's Chloe Melas

Studio audiences for several Disney-owned talk shows will be suspended over concern for the growing number of coronavirus cases in New York, the Walt Disney Television announced today.

"LIVE with Kelly and Ryan," "The Tameron Hall Show" and "The View," — three nationally broadcast ABC shows based in New York — will no longer have studio audiences in attendance

"Given the current developing situation in New York City, we have made the decision to suspend live audiences from attending our news broadcasts and talk shows," a Walt Disney Television spokesperson told CNN.

"The Wendy Williams Show" announced a similar change on Tuesday.

These 3 New York-based talk shows will tape without studio audiences

Studio audiences for several Disney-owned talk shows will be suspended over concern for the growing number of coronavirus cases in New York, the Walt Disney Television announced today.

www.cnn.com

Man I wish I still had TV I would like to see how much these shows tank without a crowd of women yelling and clapping.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

 

[Smiles and Cries]

 

[Kenpachii]

How's the US not more infected by now? With far worse healthcare then EU country's.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Buddy, your banana republic level public healthcare will make you a greater hazard to the countries that you border than vice versa.

Banana republics have better healthcare than the US does. See Cuba.

On an unrelated note, my stupid co-worker traveled yesterday with someone who flew in from San Jose Airport on Monday. Even though my company has said not to travel domestically. We are now forcing him to stay home.

 

[E-Cat]

Man I wish I still had TV I would like to see how much these shows tank without a crowd of women yelling and clapping.

Luckily, you can watch clips on Youtube.

Banana republics have better healthcare than the US does. See Cuba.

Sorry, my bad. You are of course correct. But at least you're not socialist.

 

[E-Cat]

Edit: double post

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Dr. Campbell on number data

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Luckily, you can watch clips on Youtube.

Sorry, my bad. You are of course correct. But at least you're not socialist.

They only choose the best parts for youtube clips, I want to see the booming times

 

[Saruhashi]

How's the US not more infected by now? With far worse healthcare then EU country's.

Testing.

The confirmed cases we see is probably just the tip of the iceberg.

Most people will not present serious symptoms. Some won't have symptoms at all.

There will be plenty of people who had this and recovered and never thought to go to a doctor or to get tested.

Testing in Europe was always very specific and targeted.
Did you travel to China recently AND you have any symptoms? Then get tested.
Then it was did you travel to China or Korea or Italy and have symptoms etc.
Were you in contact with someone who traveled there and has symptoms and now you have symptoms etc etc.
And so on.

You'll have LOADS of people out there who have been a bit sick, stayed home for a few days and then got back to normal.
These cases are not being recorded at all.

If I were in the US and I had this I'd be staying home, getting over it and then moving on.
Especially if it's going to cost me potentially to be tested, diagnosed and/or treated.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

How's the US not more infected by now? With far worse healthcare then EU country's.

Because the rate of testing is like 5x - 10x more in the EU right now.
We don't have worst healthcare we just have to pay for it.

 

[E-Cat]

How's the US not more infected by now? With far worse healthcare then EU country's.

The real US number is almost certainly >10,000. But they have not even conducted that many tests to date, iirc.

 

[sinnergy]

"As long as it takes" just doesn't work.

In that case it's just going to bite us in the ass in different ways.
Lockdown too soon and for too long and you just create a whole range of other issues.

There are too many moving parts and thinking about the virus ALONE is not taking care of your people.

It's a juggling act and that's why you are seeing different countries deal with it in different ways.

Italy can't stay shut down forever.

The goal here is to slow the spread and that will, in turn, slow future outbreaks.

It's still up for debate exactly when and how restrictions should be rolled out.

Talk to you in 2-3 weeks.

China proved it works. Italy will also show.

 

[WinterIsComing]

Portugal had 41 cases yesterday, 18 more today, 59 total.

 

[McHuj]

Can someone answer some questions on the tests for this thing?

Do we know how long it takes to make these test kits? And how long is the turn around time for the test? I don't believe for the flu the doctors have to send the results out to another lab, but I'm guessing with this they do?

It seems to me that the thing that will really contain this is if there are instantaneous testing kits and millions of them so that we can quickly identify the clusters and do targeted quarantines.

 

[sinnergy]

Nothing to worry !

 

[Jooxed]

How's the US not more infected by now? With far worse healthcare then EU country's.

Sending our tests to the CDC, after this week you should see a huge spike. I know for a fact there are two more confirmed cases in the hospital next to where I work that haven't been publicly reported yet because of the testing process.

 

[GaviotaGrande]

Nothing to worry !

Exactly guys. Come and visit. Birtje and bitterballen for everyone!

 

[E-Cat]

Portugal had 41 cases yesterday, 18 more today, 59 total.

Finland is almost the same: 40 cases yesterday, 19 more today, 59 total.

 

[DeepEnigma]

 

[Saruhashi]

Talk to you in 2-3 weeks.

China proved it works. Italy will also show.

Why?

I'd say it's pretty obvious that most countires will have closures and lockdowns at some point.
What's happening right now is governments are trying to juggle the timing to maximize the benefits and minimize the knock-on effects.

So I don't think it's going to be the "I told you so" moment that you think it is.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,897,800 Cases and 2,865,517 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Taxexemption]

Can someone answer some questions on the tests for this thing?

Do we know how long it takes to make these test kits? And how long is the turn around time for the test? I don't believe for the flu the doctors have to send the results out to another lab, but I'm guessing with this they do?

It seems to me that the thing that will really contain this is if there are instantaneous testing kits and millions of them so that we can quickly identify the clusters and do targeted quarantines.

In my limited experience in healthcare, doctors send almost everything to labs, they don't do anything themselves. However, this isn't as dramatic as it sounds, the lab is often nearby, and in the case of STDs testing for example you can get results the same day depending on what time the sample is sent over.

 

[Jtibh]

Any new italian numbers?

 

[Saruhashi]

Can someone answer some questions on the tests for this thing?

Do we know how long it takes to make these test kits? And how long is the turn around time for the test? I don't believe for the flu the doctors have to send the results out to another lab, but I'm guessing with this they do?

It seems to me that the thing that will really contain this is if there are instantaneous testing kits and millions of them so that we can quickly identify the clusters and do targeted quarantines.

Probably depends on location.

The entire Olympiacos FC team and staff were tested yesterday after their owner was confirmed to have the virus.
They announced everyone was all clear within 24 hours.

Olympiacos FC Announcement - ΟΛΥΜΠΙΑΚΟΣ - Olympiacos.org

The results of the medical tests on the COVID-19 virus.

www.olympiacos.org

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Chicago St. Patrick's Day parade canceled because of coronavirus concerns

The Chicago St. Patrick's Day Parade — one of the largest St. Patrick's Day parades in the US — has been canceled, organizers announced on their website.

The parade was slated for Saturday afternoon. Each year, Chicago's parade and river dyeing attracts hundreds of thousands of people to downtown.

Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker are expected to give updates at a novel coronavirus briefing later this morning.

Illinois has reported 19 coronavirus cases as of yesterday.

Chicago St. Patrick's Day parade canceled because of coronavirus concerns

The Chicago St. Patrick's Day Parade — one of the largest St. Patrick's Day parades in the US — has been canceled, organizers announced on their website.

www.cnn.com

 

[Paracelsus]

Any new italian numbers?

1300 new cases reported in Lombardy in a day.

 

[VertigoOA]

News from the job has been circulating that two workers from buildings at Hudson yards, buildings 10 and 50 have Corona virus. Midtown Manhattan. Locations of those contracting it are no longer being reported by the local news... I guess because Hudson yards is a huge new marketplace in the city.

I’m about to cut out for the day.... I work next door

 

[HellforLeather]

Whelp, its made its way into a retirement home in my community and has already killed an elderly lady. I only work with 2 other guys most of the time but Im seriously considering working from home here real soon.

 

[Phunkydiabetic]

Luckily, you can watch clips on Youtube.

Sorry, my bad. You are of course correct. But at least you're not socialist.

Once shit really starts poppin off in the states and people are dying like crazy I wonder now many people will be wishing they were in a socialist society for that sweet top tier healthcare?

 

[GreyHorace]

"Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota." (3/10/20)

Just watched clips of this. I think this interview has informed me more about Covid-19 than any other news report out there. What a grim picture this doctor paints. Hopefully the continued research into the virus yields something akin to a vaccine, and hopefully quarantine efforts around the world help to stop it's spread.

 

[Phase]

I really worry about not only the health of everybody, but their livelihoods with this pandemic. Most people I know don't have that much money and can't afford to take that long off even if they want to. Short of government intervention to help those who can't afford it, it's gonna suck. I just hope it dies out like the flu kind of does in the summer, but I'm not banking on it.