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[Captain Zyrain]

Whats with the triggered reactions? Am i colorblind and posted on the wrong forum again?

Another cruise ship? Man, i'll run out of ship based horror titles in a minute...

Since there isn't a dislike button or whatever, people usually use Triggered for that.

 

[VertigoOA]

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Thank you EviLore for the title update!

Here is a walk through of the new "hospital" they built in a couple of days. They do not seem particularly impressed.

Wonder if they'll use it to keep dissidents locked up after this has passed?

 

[EviLore]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

 

[Kadayi]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

Pretty sobering tbh.

 

[Croatoan]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

I think an economic downturn is a given if even one city has an outbreak. The panic will be real, and it will show in the markets.

The real question is what companies will do? I am weighing the cost of losing my job vs losing my life right now. At what % chance of contracting this thing does going to work no longer matter?

For those wondering why, I have elevated blood pressure right now that I am trying to get under control with lifestyle changes. One of the things that leads to death with nCOv is high blood pressure.

Also, as of today, the chance of me contracting it is basically 0% but that will skyrocket if containment fails over the next two weeks.

 

[Liberty4all]

Dang I think Liberty4all mentioned they work in this industry?

Best of luck to you dude!

Yeah I sell cruises for a living. Luckily though we specialize in Alaska. So far Americans are still booking but our clients trend older and I don't think are as clued in on how bad this could get.

 

[BlackOlivesMatter]

The solution is simple. Identify who patient zero was, then build a time machine and send Michael Rooker back to eliminate the target.

 

[keraj37]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

Dr. Gregory Poland - well that is the surname I love - lets hear what Poland has to say, shall we!

 

[Newly Vacant]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

It's posts like this that make me wish there was a vomit emoji reaction on GAF. This disease is scary.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Yeah I sell cruises for a living. Luckily though we specialize in Alaska. So far Americans are still booking but our clients trend older and I don't think are as clued in on how bad this could get.

We had a 7-day booked for Alaska on NCL this Summer and we canceled it last week. Not 100% due to this, but when weighing the pro's and con's, it definitely factored in.



2 more in Germany, MAN that lady from China was a serious SuperSpreader.

Edit: Here is a look behind the curtain... damn.

Authorities 'overwhelmed' and people 'piling into hospitals', says Brit in Wuhan | ITV News

Christopher Hill, who has stayed with his family in Wuhan, says six of his neighbours in Wuhan have all fallen ill. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

 

[10000]

I think an economic downturn is a given if even one city has an outbreak. The panic will be real, and it will show in the markets.

The real question is what companies will do? I am weighing the cost of losing my job vs losing my life right now. At what % chance of contracting this thing does going to work no longer matter?

For those wondering why, I have elevated blood pressure right now that I am trying to get under control with lifestyle changes. One of the things that leads to death with nCOv is high blood pressure.

Also, as of today, the chance of me contracting it is basically 0% but that will skyrocket if containment fails over the next two weeks.

nooooo, I dont want you to die

 

[Croatoan]

nooooo, I dont want you to die

I mean, I am 35 and I haven't had the problem for long, so its possible I would be just fine .

Weird fact, I have only had the flu once in my life and after graduating from college I think I have been sick twice (once flu, the second was bronchitis). Hopefully that means I have a good immune system and not that I am just really lucky.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Audio from the CDC briefing from this morning:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0203-novel-coronavirus.mp3

It's about 28 minutes long.

They say they do not expect any of their measures to stop the novel coronavirus from hitting the United States, only to slow it down enough to be able to develop vaccines/treatments.

 

[Liberty4all]

We had a 7-day booked for Alaska on NCL this Summer and we canceled it last week. Not 100% due to this, but when weighing the pro's and con's, it definitely factored in.



2 more in Germany, MAN that lady from China was a serious SuperSpreader.

Edit: Here is a look behind the curtain... damn.

Authorities 'overwhelmed' and people 'piling into hospitals', says Brit in Wuhan | ITV News

Christopher Hill, who has stayed with his family in Wuhan, says six of his neighbours in Wuhan have all fallen ill. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

Yeah I’ve been following the virus news closely given my livelihood. So far Americans are still booking Alaska ... I expect that will change if/when the virus starts to pick up in North America. I’ve had a few not book due to fears of the virus but no cancellations ... yet.

 

[Skyfox]

I think an economic downturn is a given if even one city has an outbreak. The panic will be real, and it will show in the markets.

The real question is what companies will do? I am weighing the cost of losing my job vs losing my life right now. At what % chance of contracting this thing does going to work no longer matter?

For those wondering why, I have elevated blood pressure right now that I am trying to get under control with lifestyle changes. One of the things that leads to death with nCOv is high blood pressure.

Also, as of today, the chance of me contracting it is basically 0% but that will skyrocket if containment fails over the next two weeks.

Im the exact same. General sentiment seems to be oh if your immune system is not 100% thats your problem. Keep those airports goin!

 

[eot]

“We’re basically at a pandemic now.” -Mayo Clinic physician

20 million people got the regular flu? Damn, that's a lot

 

[Insane Metal]

 

[Liberty4all]

I use a CPAP machine so I'm definitely worried if it does end up an epidemic in North America.

 

[bitbydeath]

Producing and acting associations have co-issued a notice saying that all film and TV production companies, crews and actors are to suspend film and TV drama shoots until an unspecified time when the period of heightened virus prevention has passed.

Those who don’t stop production will be ‘held responsible’. Film industry professionals also have the right to refuse to participate in shoots during the epidemic period, and can report shoots that continue unabated to the local authorities and industry associations.

China Indefinitely Halts Film Production - Dark Horizons

China has officially ordered an indefinite halt to all film production within its borders as it seeks to stop the spread of the coronavirus. The official death toll in China stands at 361, with 17,205 confirmed cases of the disease as of Sunday – numbers that are rapidly rising. Producing and...

www.darkhorizons.com

 

[TrainedRage]

Has Corona Chan blessed this thread yet?

 

[cryptoadam]

Wuhan turns to social media to vent anger at coronavirus response

Residents of virus-hit city accuse government of withholding information and downplaying severity of viral outbreak.

www.aljazeera.com

Those goddamn westerners and their propaganda. Lots of Western propagandist in Wuhan talking to AlJazeera I guess.

 

[eot]

Most of the cases were people travelling directly from Wuhan though, it'll take a bit longer to see if secondary infections are popping up

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Wenzhou update

 

[Breakage]

Footage apparently taken from No 5 Wuhan Hospital (I got the link from the Guardian):

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Hubei update for today:



Full CHINA update in 2 hours(ish).

ASSUMING the numbers are valid, we're well below the 52,500 predicted cases and 1,082 predicted deaths from that model that floated around, but still not great.

 

[HoodWinked]

Wenzhou update

i cant imagine this being very effective, i wonder if its just for show to make the public feel like they're safer. can't blame them we did the same for zika but at least mosquito control at least would have some benefit.

 

[Rock And Roll]

Yeah I’ve been following the virus news closely given my livelihood. So far Americans are still booking Alaska ... I expect that will change if/when the virus starts to pick up in North America. I’ve had a few not book due to fears of the virus but no cancellations ... yet.

I applied with a few cruise agencies to work as a musician onboard back in November because the cost of living is getting too damn high here. I worked on cruises before and I enjoyed it but I'm worrying this will really ruin some potential gigs. I got accepted by 4 agencies so I think I should reach out to them and get a feel of what's going on.

 

[12Goblins]

Coronavirus: China admits 'shortcomings and deficiencies'

China also orders a crackdown on illegal wildlife markets, where the virus reportedly emerged.

www.bbc.com

 

[Insane Metal]

Holy shit it's bad.

Wenzhou update

That's not a good sign at all. They're hiding something (obviously).

 

[cryptoadam]

Coronavirus: China admits 'shortcomings and deficiencies'

China also orders a crackdown on illegal wildlife markets, where the virus reportedly emerged.

www.bbc.com

Sounds like Western Propaganda.

Chinese government is perfect as we have been told. They are the bigleyst government out there.

 

[demigod]

Hospital built in 10 days, I don't trust anything made by China.

 

[Ornlu]

Hospital built in 10 days, I don't trust anything made by China.

That's like those shit buildings Russia put up in Sochi. Same kind of keeping up appearances bullshit.

 

[Pallas]

Hubei update for today:



Full CHINA update in 2 hours(ish).

ASSUMING the numbers are valid, we're well below the 52,500 predicted cases and 1,082 predicted deaths from that model that floated around, but still not great.

You think it’s a real possibility that it’s much worse and the Chinese government are covering up the real numbers?

 

[eot]

Wenzhou update

Wenzhou is more like 3 mil for the actual city. Not that it's small by any means, but Wuhan is ~9 mil for the urban area and is much bigger. I don't mean to be pedantic, but I've been there so it stood out to me, and those small omissions add up in this era of twitter based news. Anyway, Wenzhou is a coastal city, which is more worrying IMO.

 

[bitbydeath]

Hubei update for today:



Full CHINA update in 2 hours(ish).

ASSUMING the numbers are valid, we're well below the 52,500 predicted cases and 1,082 predicted deaths from that model that floated around, but still not great.

Still climbing, yesterday’s figures-

2,103 new infected
56 deaths

 

[Captain Zyrain]

You think it’s a real possibility that it’s much worse and the Chinese government are covering up the real numbers?

Do I think China is lying? Yes and no. I don't think the #'s tell the whole story, but I am not 100% convinced they're purposefully trying to conceal things as some have said.

I think a lot of factors are at play, which end up with lower than actual numbers. They're sending people away who are not SUPER SICK, so they're not even tested until maybe later when they do get super sick. I wouldn't be surprised if people there try to be overly optimistic with the #'s to please the higher ups either. The Hitler-type thing where they only want to hear good news.

Wenzhou is more like 3 mil for the actual city. Not that it's small by any means, but Wuhan is ~9 mil for the urban area and is much bigger. I don't mean to be pedantic, but I've been there so it stood out to me, and those small omissions add up in this era of twitter based news. Anyway, Wenzhou is a coastal city, which is more worrying IMO.

Thank you for the update. Always good to get details from people who've been there.

Still climbing, yesterday’s figures-

2,103 new infected
56 deaths

Ugh.

 

[bitbydeath]

Ugh.

That’s total numbers, I was referring to day on day numbers.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

That’s total numbers, I was referring to day on day numbers.

The "Ugh" was that the day on day numbers are still increasing.

The tweet was just so everyone could see the recap, I should have separated it better.

Hard to get a bead on this since the lag time is so long. My GUESS is that it takes people 7-10 days to die from this, after showing symptoms. Could be longer? Also, people can have it and be asymptomatic for up to 14 days as well I think, which is crazy. Lets say it takes 10 days to die from this. What were the "Confirmed case numbers" from 10 days ago? That'd be... 1/24/2020.

*checks notes*

I think on 1/24/2020 there were 1,080 confirmed cases TOTAL (but mostly Wuhan/Hubei I think back then). So from that 1,080, 64 of them died today (10 days later, guesstimate). That's about a 6% mortality rate. Again, just playing with numbers, a 6% mortality rate on all the confirmed cases (19,843) means in 10 days the death count could be 1,190. It's a crapshoot though, as we're also seeing "high" numbers of people "recovered" and released (101 in Hubei today). We don't know if those dying are just old or with pre-existing conditions. Treatment for new patients coming down with it NOW might be better OR worse than those who came down with it 10 days ago, we just don't know.

I would expect to see more deaths in the other provinces in the next couple of days, since I believe those mini-outbreaks started around 2 weeks ago. The numbers should be small though as the 2nd region (Zhejiang) only has 724 cases (6% mortality would 'only' be 43 people).

The wait and see sucks.. but it's about all we can do right now. All the sick people who traveled last week, if they infected anyone, they should be coming down with it in the next couple days, so if we don't see a big international increase, things might be OK outside of China.

 

[nush]

Has Corona Chan blessed this thread yet?

He was called out for LARPing.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

ADVChina podcast updates

 

[Captain Zyrain]

20,400+ cases nationwide.. so still not a HUGE jump in all the other provinces, but still growing.

 

[TrainedRage]

You have been visited by Corona Chan. If you give this post a like she will bless you with immunity.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

that is some update in the numbers

 

[Foamy]

So what do we think the ratio is for actual number of cases vs China's government reported numbers?

3:1
4:1
???

 

[Captain Zyrain]

2,825 new cases yesterday..
3,235 new cases today..

What is weird is between January 26 and 27, there was a +1000 jump in NEW cases, which is crazy, then it dips a little for a few days, and now seems to be jumping again.

I also realize I did my math wrong from before, 10 days ago (1/24/2020) there were 457 NEW cases reported that day. If those who are going to die, die 10 days later (today, 64 deaths reported) that means the mortality rate isn't 6 percent, it's 14 percent. Big yikes. So if that holds, of the 3,235 new cases today, in 10 days, the daily death total should be 453. BIGGER YIKES. Obviously a big YMMV and guesstimates.

People could be dying much quicker, or longer, I guess, it's hard to tell. We also don't know the accuracy or totality of any of these numbers, so really who the hell knows.

 

[Pallas]

20,400+ cases nationwide.. so still not a HUGE jump in all the other provinces, but still growing.

Well there is what? A 14 day incubation period at most? There may be a lot of people unaware they are even infected yet, and the numbers are steadily climbing.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Well there is what? A 14 day incubation period at most? There may be a lot of people unaware they are even infected yet, and the numbers are steadily climbing.

Yeah, we just don't really know. We can just go off of the (probably not-totally-accurate) numbers we're getting from China.



(Global Times News is a CCP mouthpiece fyi)



I wish we knew more details about the people who died. Could give some insight as to what is to come. All the case reports I've read from outside China have said people got sick, then got a little better, and then got really sick around day 7-8 of the illness. If that holds true, figure people who are going to die from it, end up dying a couple days after it gets really bad. So maybe those who died had been fighting it for 9-13 days?

That means.... the deaths we're seeing this week is from people who probably got sick when they were reporting only a couple hundred new cases a day. IF they couldn't treat these people successfully enough to save them when a couple hundred people were coming down with it, do we expect them to be taking care of the new thousands per day that are coming down with it now? It's scary to think of, but since it's so time delayed we're not really seeing how bad it is/can be. If the model holds, when we're seeing 1,000 people per day dying, it means in 10 more days it might be 10,000/day!

Bleh.. again, we don't know what we don't know.. I don't WANT an outbreak to pop up in other countries, but that might be the only way we get real detailed info on what is happening to people when they get this.

Edit: also, nice.

 

[Mikado]

I'm no epidemiologist so I don't know how any of this works. And it's likely that the posted figures are largely fictional. So consider this post to be a work co-authored by Numbers from my Ass:

Doesn't it seem a bit premature to compare total deaths vs. the total confirmed (for the so-called 2% mortaility rate) for an illness that takes at least a week or two to pass?

Ideally, when all of this blows over, shouldn't Total Deaths + Total Recovered = Total Confirmed? What I see now is 426 deaths out of 1049 "resolutions", for a kill-vs-cure ratio closer to 40%. 1049 "endings" seems to more or less match the number of Total Confirmed about 10 days ago (somewhere around 1-2K).

I'm thinking that 40% can't possibly be right either because that would be nuts, right? But for the last several days, the 40% ratio has held quite steady and has matched the total infections of 10 days previous. I'm hoping that the thing just takes a long time to recover vs how long it takes to kill and we'll see an increase in the Recovery : Resolutions ratio.

For comparison, the non-China numbers seem to be 1 death, 9 recovered with about 25 infected 10 days ago. So that's closer to 10% mortality but with such a small sample size the stats are probably meaningless.

Around 10 days ago (Jan 23-24 ish) is when things started to accelerate so I guess we'll see if there is a rapid increase in the number of Resolved cases in the next few days - and whether my layman's interpretation of the trends is BS or not.

Edit: W.r.t China's situation, there's probably also a saturation effect in play. Other countries - having been forewarned - are isolating and treating their small number of cases aggressively and safely. There's likely a tipping point where it's not possible to stay ahead of the rising cases and that's when trouble starts. I would think that spread outside of China would be considerably less and recovery rates higher, so long as numbers are under control?

 

[vpance]

Doomsday cult members itching to get infected somehow.