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[Birgitte2004-2]

Could things have been worse if nothing had been done? Undoubtedly there'd be more COVID cases and deaths. But nobody anywhere is paying attention to the societal problems and deaths which have been directly caused by the response. Nor will they, in general, because nobody in power actually wants to know those answers.

 

[A.Romero]

Enough to worry about in my own neck of the woods.



Well, you can pose this question with, you know, every other virus that has ever existed. People can understand the nature of the risk and take precautions as necessary. If I am under the weather I am not out there coughing on my 89 year old grandma. If I am out there being told I may be making other people sick without me knowing it (btw the evidence of this is not really there) I will take extra precautions.

But the fact is, that "people of low risk of dead carrying the virus around and infecting people with high risk unknowingly" is probably ALL that happened during the lockdown, as everybody was, you know, forced inside under the same roof indefinitely. A survey came out in May or so in New York that said most new cases were from people who were supposed to be locked down. Hence, spreading was a "family thing."



Read 1984 man. Sometimes power is attractive for power's sake. Like I said rich and connected people have benefited greatly as small businesses die. I do think that certain elements of the government and media had an interest in destroying the economy and keeping Trump from running a proper re-election campaign, as well as installing Dementia Joe.



Like I said, governments responded to a hysterical, laughably bad model by a moron named Neil Ferguson who has made a career of selling these hysterical models to dumb people running governments. Yes a good chunk of it was CYA, but again, that is mass hysteria for you.

Define "worse outcome". As many have said, the official numbers floated around are fictitious. The case numbers have absolutely no basis in reality and the death counts are greased up due to the official policy of not making the distinction between dying "of COVID" and "with COVID" (except for one case, George Floyd). So that said, we have a destroyed economy, ruined cities, rioters burning down legitimate businesses, mass mental health problems, exploding crime, etc. How could the outcome have been worse?

I understand your POV. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Joe T.]

"...could prompt another lockdown, if Quebecers don't behave." Not if the hospitals see an uptick in cases, but if we don't behave.

Threatening a second round of extremely damaging lockdowns because some people are "not behaving" even though hospitalizations/deaths flatlined months ago and about 85% of them came from long term care facilities... This is rage-inducing.

 

[FireFly]

You need to do the cost-analysis, immediately, at the very beginning, and continue to do it. We have destroyed a generation of people with this lockdown, and we have ruined cities for potentially decades. You may think this sounds hysterical? Well, studies have shown that the earning power of people *over their whole lives* is strongly associated with the time they entered the market. For millenials, who already got their financial futures upended in 2008, it is happening again, and now it is happening to zoomers.

In your own words, we need to look at it with a years-long view in mind.

Here's what we need to know at least, to do a cost benefit analysis:

1.) The reproductive rate of the virus in various conditions, with a 100% susceptible population (i.e the R0 number)
2.) The existing immunity in the population, if any exists. This with 1.) allows us to calculate the proportion of the population that will be infected before herd immunity is achieved. (This is 1 - 1/R0, in a 100% suceptible population, so this would be 64% with the estimated median R0 of 2.79)
3.) The true hospitalisation rate. Even if the virus doesn't kill anyone when treated, if 2% of infected people require hospitalisation, then with 3 beds per 1000 people, or 0.3 per 100, only 15% of the population needs to be infected at once for the health care system to become overwhelmed. And if 0.3% of an infected population require critical care, then with 30 ICU beds per 100,000 people only 10% of the population need to be infected.
4.) The number of life years that victims of the virus lose on average.
5.) Given 1.)-5.) the total loss of life, if we allowed the virus to spread.

6.) Given the above, the economic costs of allowing the virus to spread freely, including:

i.) The additional healthcare costs
ii.) The costs of a "voluntary" lockdown; since individuals will try to avoid catching the virus anyway.
iii) The total "value of life" lost, measured in QALYs and including deaths due to "collateral damage"
iv.) Any lost productive output due to deaths

Can you give me any of these figures? Because as far I can see, it is impossible to know for sure the true virus incidence or the existing population immunity. And without that, none of the other calculations are possible.

That's why we should follow your earlier advice and keep an open mind.

So my first thought, as someone who is quite familiar with these matters, is what are we doing this for? A sick 80 year old, in a nursing home, consuming massive amounts of health care resources, and not contributing anything economically, does not have a QALY price tag of $50,000. He just doesn't. In fact, I would say he has a QALY tag of $0, because he doesn't have any more "healthy life years."

If he has a QALY price tag of zero then quite literally each year of his life has no additional value. That means that if there was some treatment that cost $5 a year to keep him alive, we wouldn't give it him, because it would be a waste. In fact we wouldn't keep him in a care home at all. We would kick him out and leave him to die, then toss his body in dumpster somewhere.

Anyway the point is that the $50,000 figure is for a year of full health. I have a 92 year old grandmother who lives on her own and is fully independent. I think if I was in her position, an extra year might be worth $50,000 to me, paid for over the course of my entire life. So given that the first study estimates over a decade or more of years of life lost YLL (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75), 5 x 100% QALYs seems at least in the region of possibility. (And to dispute this, really feeds back into my point that we simply don't have enough information right now).

 

[diffusionx]

If he has a QALY price tag of zero then quite literally each year of his life has no additional value. That means that if there was some treatment that cost $5 a year to keep him alive, we wouldn't give it him, because it would be a waste. In fact we wouldn't keep him in a care home at all. We would kick him out and leave him to die, then toss his body in dumpster somewhere.

Well, no, it doesn't mean that, because other concerns come into play, and we don't make these decisions based on strictly economic reasons. That said, if we are doing an economic analysis, where we have to admit that these old sickly people are simply massive money pits at this point, long after their productive years.

Anyway the point is that the $50,000 figure is for a year of full health. I have a 92 year old grandmother who lives on her own and is fully independent. I think if I was in her position, an extra year might be worth $50,000 to me, paid for over the course of my entire life. So given that the first study estimates over a decade or more of years of life lost YLL (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75), 5 x 100% QALYs seems at least in the region of possibility. (And to dispute this, really feeds back into my point that we simply don't have enough information right now).

Yes obviously people would pay a lot of money to save their own grandparents, that's not the point.

 

[cryptoadam]

"...could prompt another lockdown, if Quebecers don't behave." Not if the hospitals see an uptick in cases, but if we don't behave.

Threatening a second round of extremely damaging lockdowns because some people are "not behaving" even though hospitalizations/deaths flatlined months ago and about 85% of them came from long term care facilities... This is rage-inducing.

ATF. We have had 20-50 cases a day in Montreal for months. And like 20 people under 50 have died.

 

[prag16]

"...could prompt another lockdown, if Quebecers don't behave." Not if the hospitals see an uptick in cases, but if we don't behave.

Threatening a second round of extremely damaging lockdowns because some people are "not behaving" even though hospitalizations/deaths flatlined months ago and about 85% of them came from long term care facilities... This is rage-inducing.

The governor here in CT has made, a little more indirectly, similar comments about too many people not doing the right thing, putting us all at risk etc etc. Phase 3 was supposed to happen the last week of June, but the shithead delayed it 'indefinitely', and we're still stuck in 'phase 2' with no end in sight. He just extended his "emergency powers" through February 9th.

This is CT's curve by the way, pictured below. 50 people are hospitalized for COVID currently in a state of 3.6+ million people. Who do they think they're fooling at this point. (Most people apparently, because all the fucking sheep are still out there driving their cars alone with masks, teachers refusing to go back to work because they "fear for their lives"... Our local library has not reopened yet and they're doing curbside book pickup... there's sign up by the door stating "MASK REQUIRED EVEN IF NO ONE ELSE IS PRESENT". My son's soccer league is making the kids not in the game sit six feet apart on the sideline, AND wear masks. They can take them off when they go on the field, but awesome, you'll have a bunch of sweaty filthy masks floating around which sounds extremely sanitary.

It's safe to have ten kids jostling for position in the goal box awaiting a corner kick, but unsafe to sit six feet apart outdoors without masks. It's safe to sit at an indoor restaurant table with a bunch of friends and eat a meal, but unsafe to walk 12 feet from the front door to your table without a mask. It's safe for 1000 people who file through a grungy Walmart each day but unsafe to sit at a bar for an hour after work with your buddy. It's unsafe for me to GET OUT OF MY FUCKING CAR during my son's baseball practice, but it's safe for 10000 assholes to pack shoulder to shoulder to bitch and moan about cops.

It's all a huge load of horse shit and has been since day one. They're "following the science" though. "The science, the science". "New normal". "We're al in this together". No, fuck all you shit heads go die in a fire. We're nearly six months into "15 days to flatten the curve" with no end in sight.

 

[CloudNull]

Revolver Exclusive Study: COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself - Revolver News

A groundbreaking new study commissioned by Revolver News concludes that COVID-19 lockdowns are ten times more deadly than the actual COVID-19 virus in terms of years of life lost by American citizens. Up until this point there had been no simple, rigorous analysis that accurately and...

www.revolver.news

What’s everyone opinion on the above article? Do you think there analysis is legitimate Even though they came up with there own measurable unit(life years)?

 

[MisterFalcon]

Revolver Exclusive Study: COVID-19 Lockdowns Over 10 Times More Deadly Than Pandemic Itself - Revolver News

A groundbreaking new study commissioned by Revolver News concludes that COVID-19 lockdowns are ten times more deadly than the actual COVID-19 virus in terms of years of life lost by American citizens. Up until this point there had been no simple, rigorous analysis that accurately and...

www.revolver.news

What’s everyone opinion on the above article? Do you think there analysis is legitimate Even though they came up with there own measurable unit(life years)?

The first obvious flaw is that they based their life years lost due to unemployment on a paper which looks at structural unemployment due to factories moving out of the country. Once the covid pandemic passes due to a vaccine or herd immunity most of the companies impacted will open back up and will be doing excellent business for at least 6 months.

edit: they also do not consider the possibility of people who did not immediately die of covid dying years earlier. For them it's either you die or you recover 100% as if nothing ever happened. And since most of the people who died are so old their numbers are quite low. But if 10% of people who survived of all ages die a year earlier that's tens of millions of extra life-years lost.

 

[Cracklox]

This happened in Australia today. Currently we're under a stage 4 lockdown with curfews and all kinds of stupid restrictions. There's been growing support for a protest this weekend, and the government and police are doing every thing they can to shut it down. This is despite allowing a BLM protest to go ahead a few months ago.

 

[Saruhashi]

I'm not American and it's been a while since a I came to this thread last time.

Is anyone willing to explain what is the theory behind the idea of all this being a hoax? Who is lying, why are they doing it and if they succeeded or not?

I think the use of the word "hoax" is unfortunate and implies that people think the virus is not real.
You can even see this angle of attack being taken by people like S sinnergy on this thread.
Any opposition to the decisions of government and/or media is framed as "lol I suppose you think the virus is fake".

I think at a minimum here people could agree that mainstream media is actively misinforming or poorly informing the public regarding the virus.
Governments don't actually seem to know how to deal with it and are just acting and hoping for the best.
Scientists and experts have been constantly giving contradictory information and instruction and nobody seems to agree with anyone else.

Then you've got the elements that people will disagree on.

For me, the situation with the virus is clearly being leveraged to further political grievances.
The way the entire western world was suddenly like "meh, mass gatherings are fine actually" when people wanted to have their social justice protests.
Even going as far as to use similar language such as "racism is a virus too".

So you have people being told on Friday "no weddings, no funerals, no you can't go to church, no you can't visit your friends."
Then on Saturday they turn on the TV to see THOUSANDS on the streets all crammed together at a protest with no apparent care being taken to stop the spread of the virus.

In short, if you have the correct politics then the rules don't actually apply to you.

Inside a single week in the UK the media were having a feeding frenzy because a politician went for a drive with his family. No contact with anyone else. Just his family unit. Then before the week was out they were describing a gathering of thousands to protest about an event that took place on the other side of the world complete with footage that included people chucking bicycles at police horses as "peaceful protests".

This is where the "hoax" angle is coming in.

The never ending barrage of unclear, contradictory and seemingly politically motivated messaging is leaving people thinking that there is something else to all of this.

Even something as simple as mask usage is a goddam mess.

"Wear a mask". OK. What is classified as an appropriate mask?
How often should masks be cleaned? Should they be disposed of?
What is the mask or covering actually doing?
Not everyone is well educated or well read so where is the clear and unambiguous instruction?
How come we keep seeing people in authority flaunting the mask rules?

The testing seems to be completely fucked with false positives all over the place.

People ranting on about cases when obviously the figure we need to worry about is deaths.

I've seen people online who don't seem to understand that if Country A tests 100 people and finds 1 case and Country B tests 100,000 people and finds 500 cases then Country B isn't "doing worse because they have 500 cases".

So when stuff like that is pushed it's like they are not even trying to hide the fact that they have an agenda.

Then you have the assorted other weird stuff.

Some woman get a positive test and then a few weeks later contacts the local media with "OMG I had covid and now my hair is falling out". Within hours, probably even minutes, everyone is stating that as fact. Covid can cause hair loss.

Someone will find a case where a younger person died but they have no underlying conditions. "SEE! WE SHOULDN'T EVEN GO OUTSIDE!"

There is so much manipulation and fear mongering and hysteria that you can't really blame people for feeling totally confused.

I think when you see people talking about a "hoax" or "plandemic" then it's safe to assume they aren't saying the virus is fake but rather are trying to make the point that we, the public, are being deceived or we're just not being informed and led by competent people.

As for who and why? I honestly don't know.

The UK briefly flirted with the idea of herd immunity and immediately backtracked due to public outrage (driven by media, of course).
So maybe the politicians are just trying to cling to their power by doing what the public opinion demands.

You actually see it with Trump where a lot of people seem willing to hold him personally responsible for every US covid-19 death. That makes no sense.

Who has the most to lose?
Small businesses.
Regular people who have lost jobs and will be losing jobs well down the line as a result of this.
Like, who's to say that a business who survives the next few months won't end up folding or downsizing 2 years from now because of all this?
Elderly people and people with pre existing conditions.

Who has the most to gain?
Would you trust them to not attempt to gain from this?

 

[Saruhashi]

According to the posters here it are governments that killed all those people , there is no virus .

Which posters here have clearly stated "there is no virus"?

Sounds like bullshit to me.

 

[Saruhashi]

This thread= show us science and statistics .

Governments listen to scientists = they are wrong .

Good thing this thread has lots of scientists

Plenty of people on this thread (people much smarter than you) have shared scientific evidence and points of view from actual scientists.

Yet every few pages you need to come in like an incessantly yapping dog trying to discredit or claim that people are denying the virus even exists.

It's not our fault that you invested so heavily in your fear of the virus that you now have to defend your position at all costs.
You were on the wrong side of this one, you still are on the wrong side of this one and in time you will see that.

 

[Jezbollah]

 

[diffusionx]

Once the covid pandemic passes due to a vaccine or herd immunity most of the companies impacted will open back up and will be doing excellent business for at least 6 months.

Well, with every passing the day the likelihood of this (called a "v-shaped recovery") grows more remote. If we started reopening in late April like we should have, a v-shaped recovery was basically inevitable. Now, as places shut down, as people move out of areas, as people learn to live with less, as cities get burned down in BLM riots, the changes become more structural and the chances of a long-term depression become more likely.

Some hard evidence: here in NYC, 80% of restaurants can't pay their rent while the mayor and governor play political games to try to get a bailout. These restaurants have tried to hold out for months but as this continues to drag on, they are closing by the day. When a restaurant closes, dozens of people lose their jobs and a new one doesn't immediately come in. As the place becomes less attractive to live, productive tax-paying people leave and are not immediately replaced. So on and so forth.

It's all a huge load of horse shit and has been since day one. They're "following the science" though. "The science, the science". "New normal". "We're al in this together". No, fuck all you shit heads go die in a fire. We're nearly six months into "15 days to flatten the curve" with no end in sight.

I said months ago these crooks and scumbags found tyrant powers and are not going to give them up easily. I read in one article that our "state of emergency" is now twice as long as fucking WUHAN. The mask thing is a sign of control and compliance, we are never taking them off until there is mass civil disobediance. However, will that happen? Americans are scared sheep and we have a generation of millenials/zoomers who only know a post-9/11 world where the government "keeps us safe" by exerting more and more power.

 

[A.Romero]

I think the use of the word "hoax" is unfortunate and implies that people think the virus is not real.
You can even see this angle of attack being taken by people like S sinnergy on this thread.
Any opposition to the decisions of government and/or media is framed as "lol I suppose you think the virus is fake".

I think at a minimum here people could agree that mainstream media is actively misinforming or poorly informing the public regarding the virus.
Governments don't actually seem to know how to deal with it and are just acting and hoping for the best.
Scientists and experts have been constantly giving contradictory information and instruction and nobody seems to agree with anyone else.

Then you've got the elements that people will disagree on.

For me, the situation with the virus is clearly being leveraged to further political grievances.
The way the entire western world was suddenly like "meh, mass gatherings are fine actually" when people wanted to have their social justice protests.
Even going as far as to use similar language such as "racism is a virus too".

So you have people being told on Friday "no weddings, no funerals, no you can't go to church, no you can't visit your friends."
Then on Saturday they turn on the TV to see THOUSANDS on the streets all crammed together at a protest with no apparent care being taken to stop the spread of the virus.

In short, if you have the correct politics then the rules don't actually apply to you.

Inside a single week in the UK the media were having a feeding frenzy because a politician went for a drive with his family. No contact with anyone else. Just his family unit. Then before the week was out they were describing a gathering of thousands to protest about an event that took place on the other side of the world complete with footage that included people chucking bicycles at police horses as "peaceful protests".

This is where the "hoax" angle is coming in.

The never ending barrage of unclear, contradictory and seemingly politically motivated messaging is leaving people thinking that there is something else to all of this.

Even something as simple as mask usage is a goddam mess.

"Wear a mask". OK. What is classified as an appropriate mask?
How often should masks be cleaned? Should they be disposed of?
What is the mask or covering actually doing?
Not everyone is well educated or well read so where is the clear and unambiguous instruction?
How come we keep seeing people in authority flaunting the mask rules?

The testing seems to be completely fucked with false positives all over the place.

People ranting on about cases when obviously the figure we need to worry about is deaths.

I've seen people online who don't seem to understand that if Country A tests 100 people and finds 1 case and Country B tests 100,000 people and finds 500 cases then Country B isn't "doing worse because they have 500 cases".

So when stuff like that is pushed it's like they are not even trying to hide the fact that they have an agenda.

Then you have the assorted other weird stuff.

Some woman get a positive test and then a few weeks later contacts the local media with "OMG I had covid and now my hair is falling out". Within hours, probably even minutes, everyone is stating that as fact. Covid can cause hair loss.

Someone will find a case where a younger person died but they have no underlying conditions. "SEE! WE SHOULDN'T EVEN GO OUTSIDE!"

There is so much manipulation and fear mongering and hysteria that you can't really blame people for feeling totally confused.

I think when you see people talking about a "hoax" or "plandemic" then it's safe to assume they aren't saying the virus is fake but rather are trying to make the point that we, the public, are being deceived or we're just not being informed and led by competent people.

As for who and why? I honestly don't know.

The UK briefly flirted with the idea of herd immunity and immediately backtracked due to public outrage (driven by media, of course).
So maybe the politicians are just trying to cling to their power by doing what the public opinion demands.

You actually see it with Trump where a lot of people seem willing to hold him personally responsible for every US covid-19 death. That makes no sense.

Who has the most to lose?
Small businesses.
Regular people who have lost jobs and will be losing jobs well down the line as a result of this.
Like, who's to say that a business who survives the next few months won't end up folding or downsizing 2 years from now because of all this?
Elderly people and people with pre existing conditions.

Who has the most to gain?
Would you trust them to not attempt to gain from this?

I agree that the world has been fumbling with the response because it feels like something new.

Regarding those questions that's what I'm trying to figure out. I have a hard time coming up with reasons why a government would want to tank the economy (I mean I understand the possibility of using it as a political weapon at a country level but world wide doesn't make sense to me) given that taxes would be impacted too.

I also have a hard time thinking why someone as smart as Jeff Bezzos would be complicit in tanking the economy if it means that people won't have enough cash to keep supporting his businesses...

I'm having a hard time understanding why people is so reluctant to wear a mask. Even if it only reduces the risk in a small amount. I also don't understand the mistrust in modern medicine and science, even if the actual experts have changed their stance when new information comes along (I always thought that is something positive, not a negative).

I don't know, everything is pretty weird...

Thanks for replying.

 

[hariseldon]

I agree that the world has been fumbling with the response because it feels like something new.

Regarding those questions that's what I'm trying to figure out. I have a hard time coming up with reasons why a government would want to tank the economy (I mean I understand the possibility of using it as a political weapon at a country level but world wide doesn't make sense to me) given that taxes would be impacted too.

I also have a hard time thinking why someone as smart as Jeff Bezzos would be complicit in tanking the economy if it means that people won't have enough cash to keep supporting his businesses...

I'm having a hard time understanding why people is so reluctant to wear a mask. Even if it only reduces the risk in a small amount. I also don't understand the mistrust in modern medicine and science, even if the actual experts have changed their stance when new information comes along (I always thought that is something positive, not a negative).

I don't know, everything is pretty weird...

Thanks for replying.

I'd say it's more incompetence than conspiracy. Country x does it, country next door gets a whole lot of pressure to do it, they eventually fall like dominoes. Groupthink in action.

 

[DeepBreath87]

I agree that the world has been fumbling with the response because it feels like something new.

Regarding those questions that's what I'm trying to figure out. I have a hard time coming up with reasons why a government would want to tank the economy (I mean I understand the possibility of using it as a political weapon at a country level but world wide doesn't make sense to me) given that taxes would be impacted too.

I also have a hard time thinking why someone as smart as Jeff Bezzos would be complicit in tanking the economy if it means that people won't have enough cash to keep supporting his businesses...

I'm having a hard time understanding why people is so reluctant to wear a mask. Even if it only reduces the risk in a small amount. I also don't understand the mistrust in modern medicine and science, even if the actual experts have changed their stance when new information comes along (I always thought that is something positive, not a negative).

I don't know, everything is pretty weird...

Thanks for replying.

Jeff Bezos has made an enormous mint of money. All the large corporations made out well because all their local competition was forced to close. I’m not saying they’re in on anything or it’s some conspiracy, but that is why they are not pushing back.

 

[A.Romero]

I'd say it's more incompetence than conspiracy. Country x does it, country next door gets a whole lot of pressure to do it, they eventually fall like dominoes. Groupthink in action.

I agree.

This crisis made very evident that despite cultural and political differences, people arround the world are not that different in their way of thinking.

Jeff Bezos has made an enormous mint of money. All the large corporations made out well because all their local competition was forced to close. I’m not saying they’re in on anything or it’s some conspiracy, but that is why they are not pushing back.

Yes, that's the effect but I'd think that it wouldn't benefit any business regardless of the size for the the country to go into a depression. I'm mean, you can be the number one seller of whatever but it doesn't matter if people don't have means to purchase it.

It would surprise me that someone like Bezos would just focus on the immediate gains (specially after so many years of keep pushing Amazon before it hit it's stride).

 

[cryptoadam]

Rest of the world I cannot say, but the Democrats 100% used the virus as a way to attack Trump and win the election. You will never convince me that they didn't get together and say to themselves we will do everything in our power to make this as bad as possible and tank the economy as much as possible to make Trump look bad.

They are evil people and do not believe a word they are telling you. They do not listen to the rules, go get their hair done, have giant funeral, giant gatherings, take their boat out, eat in reastuarants, don't wear masks etc... They even take HCQ while telling you it will kill you.

And they have been 100% upfront about this mentioning many many times that they can't let a crisis go to waste and its a chance to fundamentally change the USA.

These are the same evil bastards that signed orders forcing sick people into homes, and then went from going outside makes you a grandma killer to you must go outside to protest racist. They literally said that racism is more dangerous than the virus, yet they spent months forcing everyone to stay home lose their jobs and physical contact.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Rest of the world I cannot say, but the Democrats 100% used the virus as a way to attack Trump and win the election. You will never convince me that they didn't get together and say to themselves we will do everything in our power to make this as bad as possible and tank the economy as much as possible to make Trump look bad.

They are evil people and do not believe a word they are telling you. They do not listen to the rules, go get their hair done, have giant funeral, giant gatherings, take their boat out, eat in reastuarants, don't wear masks etc... They even take HCQ while telling you it will kill you.

And they have been 100% upfront about this mentioning many many times that they can't let a crisis go to waste and its a chance to fundamentally change the USA.

These are the same evil bastards that signed orders forcing sick people into homes, and then went from going outside makes you a grandma killer to you must go outside to protest racist. They literally said that racism is more dangerous than the virus, yet they spent months forcing everyone to stay home lose their jobs and physical contact.

It’s just like the riots. They were fine with things going to hell in these cities right up until they realized it was showing up negatively in the polling. They don’t give a damn if people get hurt by these riots or the lockdowns if it means they can blame Trump for them. The mask is really off now. They truly don’t care about Americans being hurt if they believe it will get them more power.

 

[CloudNull]

The first obvious flaw is that they based their life years lost due to unemployment on a paper which looks at structural unemployment due to factories moving out of the country. Once the covid pandemic passes due to a vaccine or herd immunity most of the companies impacted will open back up and will be doing excellent business for at least 6 months.

edit: they also do not consider the possibility of people who did not immediately die of covid dying years earlier. For them it's either you die or you recover 100% as if nothing ever happened. And since most of the people who died are so old their numbers are quite low. But if 10% of people who survived of all ages die a year earlier that's tens of millions of extra life-years lost.

I just want to say appreciate you. Thanks for reading the analysis and providing a counter argument. It helps me see some things that I completely overlooked during my first read through.

 

[FireFly]

Well, no, it doesn't mean that, because other concerns come into play, and we don't make these decisions based on strictly economic reasons. That said, if we are doing an economic analysis, where we have to admit that these old sickly people are simply massive money pits at this point, long after their productive years.

The point of the QALY is precisely to evaluate the worth of a year extra of life, whether or not it has any productive purpose. It's a measure of utility not productivity, and reflects, how much we collectively value each extra year of life lived measured in terms of the amount we are willing to pay (Willingness to Pay, or WTP) in insurance premiums and social contributions, to keep ourselves alive. If life served no purpose to us other than contributing to the economy, then once we could work no longer – or at least once we became sick – we could be euthanised, and the resources that would have been used to keep us alive used more efficiently elsewhere.

The fact that not only are we not ok with this, but we are willing to pay for insurance programs that will help extend our lives, indicates that even non-productive life has inherent value. That's the value that is reflected in the $50,000 figure.

(More information/analysis here: https://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2018/06/whats-value-of-qaly.html, https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapo...-benefits-of-covid-19-lockdowns/#8cae9c6f630c)

Yes obviously people would pay a lot of money to save their own grandparents, that's not the point.

It's not about your own grandparents. It's about you in 50 years. Do you care if people take care of you, or are you ok being left to die so the economy can function more efficiently? And If you're not ok with this, would you be willing to contribute any of your lifetime earnings to live a little longer?

 

[carlosrox]

Best fucking video on the internet.

 

[Saruhashi]

I agree that the world has been fumbling with the response because it feels like something new.

Regarding those questions that's what I'm trying to figure out. I have a hard time coming up with reasons why a government would want to tank the economy (I mean I understand the possibility of using it as a political weapon at a country level but world wide doesn't make sense to me) given that taxes would be impacted too.

I also have a hard time thinking why someone as smart as Jeff Bezzos would be complicit in tanking the economy if it means that people won't have enough cash to keep supporting his businesses...

I'm having a hard time understanding why people is so reluctant to wear a mask. Even if it only reduces the risk in a small amount. I also don't understand the mistrust in modern medicine and science, even if the actual experts have changed their stance when new information comes along (I always thought that is something positive, not a negative).

I don't know, everything is pretty weird...

Thanks for replying.

My take is that they are not deliberately tanking the economy but rather are just doing whatever they can to hold on to power.
The public decided that the economy could take the hit and those in power know that they can now fall back on "you demanded that we do this to save lives".

No good solutions there. They have picked the lesser of two evils. In the long term we have to hope it was the right choice.

The problem with experts is that they are not trusted because they have proven themselves to be untrustworthy.

With masks specifically the issue I see is with really terrible communication and education.
You have the utter smugness of people online bitching about this person and that person they saw without a mask and attempts to shame people etc.
So others want to rebel against that.

The mask issue is turning people from horrible cunts online to horrible cunts in the real world.
Berating old people in the street etc.

If you remove the online aspect of it and just think about your last doctors visit.
I bet they were very professional but gentle etc.

Now imagine if the doctor was acting like you are some fucking clown because you don't understand medicine and then he tells you to do one thing but 10 minutes later tells you to do the opposite. Very quickly you are going to think "I need a second opinion". No actually you'd be thinking "fuck this doctor I don't even know if I should consider this a first opinion."

Haha. You walk into the reception area the doc comes storming out "NO SHOES TO BE WORN INSIDE THE BUILDING, ASSHOLE" so you take off your shoes and your all apologetic and willing to try then 5 minutes later the doctors friend comes clomping in through the front door and the doc is like "wow nice boots mate".

Mistrust in modern medicine and science is, in my opinion, stemming from the smug, arrogant and preachy nature of the experts.

Instead of understanding that the general public doesn't get this shit and delivering a clear and informative message they deliver partially explained and unclear information and then hide behind smug arseholes online who think that they are better than everyone else.

I honestly think that "everyone needs to wear masks" is a hard sell when the people you are selling the message to can turn on the TV and see thousands at protests without masks and not a single person gives them any criticism.

If ALL of us MUST wear masks then it's not helpful to have a protected class out there who don't get any flak for not wearing them and who are allowed to have mass gatherings etc without even a mention of Covid.

 

[Captain Zyrain]

Best fucking video on the internet.

I am surprised 'advanced age' isn't itself a comorbidity?

 

[bigsnack]

Well, I got banned at ERA for suggesting that we are nearing herd immunity in certain areas, and by posting my county's data and saying that the worst is over in Los Angeles.

 

[carlosrox]

Well, I got banned at ERA for suggesting that we are nearing herd immunity in certain areas, and by posting my county's data and saying that the worst is over in Los Angeles.

It's obvious that forum full of pussies would be COVID shills. Nothing but virtue signaling there, and of course that would carry over to Fauxvid-19.

 

[Explosive Zombie]

 

[carlosrox]

Who is this guy?

 

[Explosive Zombie]

Who is this guy?

Investigative journo

 

[Alebrije]

Test that are not based on PCR are useless , also what is the logic of doing test today if you can get the virus tomorrow, you can not be doing tests every day or week specially if you are outside home.

 

[WoJ]

Fauci has been making the rounds again talking about how a vaccine will be ready by end of year (how convenient) and how bad of an idea herd immunity is. How anyone can take him seriously at this point I have no idea.

 

[Mobile Suit Gooch]

 

[Chaplain]

Well, I got banned at ERA for suggesting that we are nearing herd immunity in certain areas, and by posting my county's data and saying that the worst is over in Los Angeles.

Well, something is going on. Grace Community Church in Sun Valley, California has met for more than 5-weeks (almost 6 now) without social distancing or masks as a requirement (the majority of the people in do not wear a mask). A total of 10,000 people have met on Sundays (not counting weekly meetings at their campus) and not a single person has gotten COVID-19. So, either we have reached herd immunity or something else is going which the medical community is not disclosing to the masses.

 

[iconmaster]

Investigative journo

Even the NYT is now saying most positives could be false positives (i.e., negligibly infected).

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)

The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.

www.nytimes.com

In three sets of testing data that include cycle thresholds, compiled by officials in Massachusetts, New York and Nevada, up to 90 percent of people testing positive carried barely any virus, a review by The Times found.

On Thursday, the United States recorded 45,604 new coronavirus cases, according to a database maintained by The Times. If the rates of contagiousness in Massachusetts and New York were to apply nationwide, then perhaps only 4,500 of those people may actually need to isolate and submit to contact tracing.

 

[DeepBreath87]

Well, something is going on. Grace Community Church in Sun Valley, California has met for more than 5-weeks (almost 6 now) without social distancing or masks as a requirement (the majority of the people in do not wear a mask). A total of 10,000 people have met on Sundays (not counting weekly meetings at their campus) and not a single person has gotten COVID-19. So, either we have reached herd immunity or something else is going which the medical community is not disclosing to the masses.

It’s the power of Jesus, I bet.

 

[Chaplain]

 

[carlosrox]

Bahahaha what a fucking sham this thing has been.

Fucking pathetic. They turned the world upside down and for what?

People will eventually start to wake the fuck up and realize this was all hype just as I knew since fucking January.

I'm probably getting laid off in 2 weeks thanks to this piece of shit joke of a "pandemic".

It feels like a TON of people suspect it's all bullshit but they're too scared to say it.

These virtue signalling days you really gotta watch what you say. Shilling for COVID is one of those things most people have to do so people don't look at them weird and label them

a cONsPirAcy ThEOriSt.

 

[carlosrox]

This is the world people wanna live in.

Stupid motherfuckers.

 

[cryptoadam]

I guess now we stop listening to the scientist right LOL.

Is twatter and YouLube gonna ban all of this too?

 

[12Goblins]

I feel bad for those willing to die on this hill.

 

[Joe T.]

I feel bad for those willing to die on this hill.

Why?

 

[SLoWMoTIoN]

Bahahaha what a fucking sham this thing has been.

Fucking pathetic. They turned the world upside down and for what?

People will eventually start to wake the fuck up and realize this was all hype just as I knew since fucking January.

I'm probably getting laid off in 2 weeks thanks to this piece of shit joke of a "pandemic".

It feels like a TON of people suspect it's all bullshit but they're too scared to say it.

These virtue signalling days you really gotta watch what you say. Shilling for COVID is one of those things most people have to do so people don't look at them weird and label them

a cONsPirAcy ThEOriSt.

You ok?

 

[Joe T.]

The propagandists are calling in the big guns now, that CDC revelation has them in panic mode:

The Rock and His Family Tested Positive for COVID-19

The Rock says he and his family tested positive for COVID-19.

www.tmz.com

 

[carlosrox]

You ok?

Perfectly okay, like 99.97% of the world. How about you?

 

[SLoWMoTIoN]

Perfectly okay, like 99.97% of the world. How about you?

Terrible as always, however still keeping cool.

 

[carlosrox]

The propagandists are calling in the big guns now, that CDC revelation has them in panic mode:

The Rock and His Family Tested Positive for COVID-19

The Rock says he and his family tested positive for COVID-19.

www.tmz.com

Nice celebrity PR.

What a fucking joke.

Here in BC they begged Ryan Reynolds and Seth Rogan to shill for COVID cuz they're celebs from here. Like, actually. Not making this up at all.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

Best fucking video on the internet.

Even the NYT is now saying most positives could be false positives (i.e., negligibly infected).

Your Coronavirus Test Is Positive. Maybe It Shouldn’t Be. (Published 2020)

The usual diagnostic tests may simply be too sensitive and too slow to contain the spread of the virus.

www.nytimes.com

ITT: People interpreting data and news stories they have no ability to interpret.

 

[prag16]

ITT: People interpreting data and news stories they have no ability to interpret.

I know, it's getting tougher and tougher for you to sell your narrative, right?