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[sinnergy]

First case in a neighboring town to me here in Germany. Press release by the district. This will get messy.
But factoring in all the huge crowds and parties around carneval, the infection rate seems kind of low.

Undetected is a better word, if we have bad luck in 2 - 3 weeks when the incubation period of the first ends we are gonna see a spike. And so on.. that’s what you get with a long incubation period.

And because there are lots of mild cases, there are lots of people that shrug it off in Europe as a cold, and go to work contaminate the rest, on so on and so on.

Only thing that seems to help mass quarantine like China and Italy, but that’s what EU leaders don’t want ...

So we wait till they see it’s necessary.

If I was I the government zo would panic and do everything, most of them are in the 50s, 60s and 70s.

 

[sinnergy]

French region closes more than 100 schools for 2 weeks

A regional administration in France has announced the closure of more than 100 schools in the Oise region, affecting more than 28,000 students, the Academie d’Amiens said.

www.cnn.com

told y'all kids are going to remember these times fondly
14 days off might even get an extension

Why would you do this for a flu? /sarcasm

 

[Rentahamster]

Why would you do this for a flu? /sarcasm

Because the flu has a vaccine? /scarjogasm

 

[PistolGrip]

First case in a neighboring town to me here in Germany. Press release by the district. This will get messy.
But factoring in all the huge crowds and parties around carneval, the infection rate seems kind of low.

We are seeing mostly critical patient numbers. People infected with mild symptoms are not showing up. I suspect the numbers being an order of magnitude higher. The high number of tests in South Korea gives you a sense of where other countries are headed once they start really testing.

 

[10000]

is it really true that the virus has been slowing down in chinam

 

[Smiles and Cries]

We are seeing mostly critical patient numbers. People infected with mild symptoms are not showing up. I suspect the numbers being an order of magnitude higher. The high number of tests in South Korea gives you a sense of where other countries are headed once they start really testing.

I don't think any other country will test as agressively as South Korea but I truly believe we would see SK levels in some other areas if they did test like that.

 

[bRacing]

I wish there was an explanation.

Cause it's either there are way more cases than what's being reported (for the 1-2% death rate to be applicable).

Or they have a more aggressive mutated strain of the virus.

Or the way their government is choosing to deal with the virus is to shoot anyone with it.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

is it really true that the virus has been slowing down in chinam

As far as what China has been sharing Yes. They seem to have slowed things down. Still getting 400+ cases per day but much better than what it was peaking at.

this was the last report down to 200


if they keep this up it will be a great thing

 

[Catphish]

Just learned that there's a confirmed case near my job. Less than 3 miles from where I'm presently sitting.

Fucking splendid.

 

[DonJorginho]

Welp, the Corona Virus has been officially confirmed in Kent, in a town just 45 minutes away from me.

 

[DonJorginho]

Just learned that there's a confirmed case near my job. Less than 3 miles from where I'm presently sitting.

Fucking splendid.

Not the Maidstone case by any chance?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

this morning's update

 

[Catphish]

Not the Maidstone case by any chance?

Arlington Heights, IL

 

[DonJorginho]

Arlington Heights, IL

Oh bad luck man, either way I think we are both screwed.

 

[Sakura]

I don't see any downplaying here.
Like @Tesseract wrote, we just look at the charts, and by those this thing is not that much different from a typical flu.
The hysterical reaction by mass media might really endanger more people than this sickness itself does.

People keep saying this. But again, where is the data to support this? You say "we just look at the charts", what charts?
You mean the chart someone posted a couple pages ago, showing it had a case fatality rate of 0.2% for ages 10 to 39? In order for you to say, going by that data, that it is not much different from a typical flu, then you must have some flu charts you are comparing it against, right? No?
Here is some random flu data I got just from googling:

Age- and Sex-related Risk Factors for Influenza-associated Mortality in the United States Between 1997–2007

Limited information on age- and sex-specific estimates of influenza-associated death with different underlying causes is currently available. We regressed weekly age- and sex-specific US mortality outcomes underlying several causes between 1997 and 2007 ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

US Influenza (Flu) & Pneumonia Death Statistics | LiveStories

See data on flu and pneumonia deaths from the CDC, visualized as interactive charts and maps.

www.livestories.com

The data varies slightly for each flu season, but overall, we can see the mortality rate, for that similar age group (20s, 30s, etc), is around 1 to 2 per 100,000 people.
In other words, 0.001 to 0.002%. You think 0.2% and 0.002% are the same? That's a factor of 100. How could anyone honestly think it's the same as the flu?

Now, if all goes well, cases will stay low, it will peter out, and we will have nothing to worry about. But to suggest it is the same as the flu is ridiculous.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

I'm talking about all the things. COVID is related to the flu and as such it probably can't be eradicated.

Related to the flu? Coronavirus and Influenza aren't even in the same phylum.

 

[Cunth]

I don’t want normal flu or corona flu fuck that

 

[Smiles and Cries]

again Prisons are affected this time South Korea

 

[Jtibh]

• 2nd US death reported in Washington State
• Gottlieb warns US cases likely in 'low thousands'
• BMW tells 150 to quarantine after Munich employee infected
• Jordan reports first two cases
• Death toll in France doubles
• UK total climbs to 40
• OECD warns global growth could fall by half
• Indonesia reports first cases
• "Progress is being made" toward a vaccine
• Cuomo says NY expects more cases
• India confirms 2 more cases
• 'Official' Iran death toll hits 66
• EU confirms 38 deaths across 18 members
• First cases confirmed in Fla.
• 2 Amazon employees test positive in Milan
• Virus now in 7 US states: Washington, California, Illinois, Rhode Island, New York, Florida and Oregon
• San Antonio virus patient re-hospitalized after testing positive
• China warns it could face 'locust invasion'

 

[Smiles and Cries]

WHO to go live in a few


edit:Live now

 

[Texas Pride]

Sexy, sexy virus

Shit like this is why Democracy can't make any progress in the Middle East. Good luck to those folks because stupidity has a price.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Two more schools close in Washington state due to coronavirus fears

As the number of novel coronavirus infections continue to rise in Washington, the Mukilteo School District announced the closing and cleaning of two more schools Monday morning, according to a statement on their website.

www.cnn.com

The decision to close both Mariner High School and Discovery Elementary School came after the District learned Sunday evening that a parent of a Mariner student had tested positive for COVID-19, the district said.

"The Mariner student is not showing any symptoms, but will be quarantined at home and monitored for 14 days as recommended by the Snohomish Health District," the statement says.

The Mariner student visited Discovery Elementary last week, prompting the closing of the Elementary School as well, the District said.

Snow days ain't got nothing on this

 

[betrayal]

People keep saying this. But again, where is the data to support this? You say "we just look at the charts", what charts?
You mean the chart someone posted a couple pages ago, showing it had a case fatality rate of 0.2% for ages 10 to 39? In order for you to say, going by that data, that it is not much different from a typical flu, then you must have some flu charts you are comparing it against, right? No?
Here is some random flu data I got just from googling:

Age- and Sex-related Risk Factors for Influenza-associated Mortality in the United States Between 1997–2007

Limited information on age- and sex-specific estimates of influenza-associated death with different underlying causes is currently available. We regressed weekly age- and sex-specific US mortality outcomes underlying several causes between 1997 and 2007 ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

US Influenza (Flu) & Pneumonia Death Statistics | LiveStories

See data on flu and pneumonia deaths from the CDC, visualized as interactive charts and maps.

www.livestories.com

The data varies slightly for each flu season, but overall, we can see the mortality rate, for that similar age group (20s, 30s, etc), is around 1 to 2 per 100,000 people.
In other words, 0.001 to 0.002%. You think 0.2% and 0.002% are the same? That's a factor of 100. How could anyone honestly think it's the same as the flu?

Now, if all goes well, cases will stay low, it will peter out, and we will have nothing to worry about. But to suggest it is the same as the flu is ridiculous.

You're right with everything you're saying, except the real death rate for COVID-19 is probably WAY lower than numbers seem to suggest right now, because of the high number of mild cases, which were never tested. We'll have to wait a few more weeks to get the real numbers.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

 

[Mihos]

French region closes more than 100 schools for 2 weeks

A regional administration in France has announced the closure of more than 100 schools in the Oise region, affecting more than 28,000 students, the Academie d’Amiens said.

www.cnn.com

told y'all kids are going to remember these times fondly
14 days off might even get an extension

There are a bunch of schools closed in my region of the US, but it is just for the normal flu

 

[Smiles and Cries]

There are a bunch of schools closed in my region of the US, but it is just for the normal flu

Interesting, how many snow days does the normal flu get you?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

pfft no one wants to go

 

[Deleted member 17706]

This is probably going to be a really dumb question and I am likely missing something very basic about epidemiology, but what does shutting down areas and events and getting people to stay home actually accomplish? Sure, it will reduce risk catching the Coronavirus for those people, but is that not just delaying the inevitable? Since this thing is so contagious, if even one person still carries the virus, wouldn't it just reset the whole spread of the illness once these quarantines are lifted? It all started in Wuhan with surely just a few people. What's stopping it from spreading again at the same speed?

My first thought in reaction to all of these calls to shut down schools and places of work, etc. is that the damage dealt to the economy is going to be greater than if we just proceeded in our daily lives as normal.

Am I missing something? What's the main goal of the quarantine? To ease the load on medical facilities so everyone isn't getting sick at once and needing care? To try to buy time until a vaccine is developed and tested?

 

[Stouffers]

How are the people dying? What’s taking them out and how can it be prevented or mitigated?

 

[Siri]

Has anyone seen an increase in regular hand washing? The corona-related radio adverts here in the UK encourage people to wash their hands often. Even the Prime Minister has advised people to wash their hands regularly. Whether people here actually heed this advice is another story. I can't say I'm confident that many will.

Asking people to ‘self-isolate’, or to wash their hands properly and regularly, or to cough into tissue paper, is not going to work. People just aren’t going to do any of that.

It’s incredibly disconcerting that governments around the world are so unprepared that all they can do is plead with people to wash their hands or stay at home after travelling abroad or getting sick with the virus.

We’re just not prepared for this.

 

[sinnergy]

This is probably going to be a really dumb question and I am likely missing something very basic about epidemiology, but what does shutting down areas and events and getting people to stay home actually accomplish? Sure, it will reduce risk catching the Coronavirus for those people, but is that not just delaying the inevitable? Since this thing is so contagious, if even one person still carries the virus, wouldn't it just reset the whole spread of the illness once these quarantines are lifted? It all started in Wuhan with surely just a few people. What's stopping it from spreading again at the same speed?

My first thought in reaction to all of these calls to shut down schools and places of work, etc. is that the damage dealt to the economy is going to be greater than if we just proceeded in our daily lives as normal.

Am I missing something? What's the main goal of the quarantine? To ease the load on medical facilities so everyone isn't getting sick at once and needing care? To try to buy time until a vaccine is developed and tested?

If the damage was greater to the economy they wouldn’t do it so I bet it’s not ... The Who world loves money , that’s the problem. It. Etter to contain and quarantine and have the rest work, than to have everyone sick? Who will cure you if e everybody is sick?

 

[sinnergy]

How are the people dying? What’s taking them out and how can it be prevented or mitigated?

Weak immune systems! Pneumonia, which almost everyone gets if you have it. If you are healthy you can fight it of, but if you have a chronic disease you almost always get hospitalized, severe cases as far as I understand, get HIV/ Ebola drugs. Mitigate well almost impossible imo, only staying at home , don’t see any thing else might help.

Good hygiene , wash your hands often etc.. life , be cautious of crowds, no bars or parties etc.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

Asking people to ‘self-isolate’, or to wash their hands properly and regularly, or to cough into tissue paper, is not going to work. People just aren’t going to do any of that.

It’s incredibly disconcerting that governments around the world are so unprepared that all they can do is plead with people to wash their hands or stay at home after travelling abroad or getting sick with the virus.

We’re just not prepared for this.

What do you expect governments in free democracies to be able to do?

 

[Siri]

This is probably going to be a really dumb question and I am likely missing something very basic about epidemiology, but what does shutting down areas and events and getting people to stay home actually accomplish? Sure, it will reduce risk catching the Coronavirus for those people, but is that not just delaying the inevitable? Since this thing is so contagious, if even one person still carries the virus, wouldn't it just reset the whole spread of the illness once these quarantines are lifted? It all started in Wuhan with surely just a few people. What's stopping it from spreading again at the same speed?

My first thought in reaction to all of these calls to shut down schools and places of work, etc. is that the damage dealt to the economy is going to be greater than if we just proceeded in our daily lives as normal.

Am I missing something? What's the main goal of the quarantine? To ease the load on medical facilities so everyone isn't getting sick at once and needing care? To try to buy time until a vaccine is developed and tested?

I don’t think you’re missing anything. As far as I can tell, we can only delay this virus and hope that a vaccine is discovered soon.

A pandemic is, by definition, a situation in which every single person on the face of the planet is exposed to a transferable disease. It seems we’re trying to slow the spread of this virus in order to wait for a vaccine in order to avoid a pandemic.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

If the damage was greater to the economy they wouldn’t do it so I bet it’s not ... The Who world loves money , that’s the problem. It. Etter to contain and quarantine and have the rest work, than to have everyone sick? Who will cure you if e everybody is sick?

But if shit really starts shutting done and resources become limited, it's only a matter of time before people without stockpiles start going out and raiding people's homes who do have stockpiles and that kind of situation can accelerate pretty quickly, I bet.

 

[Mihos]

Interesting, how many snow days does the normal flu get you?

My kids are grown and moved out, and the grandkids are too young for school so I am not sure if they even make them up. Right now, 7 are closed because of normal flu and cleaning. Last year was way worst for closures.

 

[Stouffers]

Weak immune systems! Pneumonia, which almost everyone gets if you have it. If you are healthy you can fight it of, but if you have a chronic disease you almost always get hospitalized, severe cases as far as I understand, get HIV/ Ebola drugs. Mitigate well almost impossible imo, only staying at home , don’t see any thing else might help.

Good hygiene , wash your hands often etc.. life , be cautious of crowds, no bars or parties etc.

I travel, shake hands, attend large conferences and entertain clients for a living . I’m also a big fatty with a brain aneurysm, High blood pressure, skin cancer and potential thyroid cancer. What do?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Almost 9 times more coronavirus cases were reported outside China than inside in the last 24 hours

In the past day, there have been almost 9 times more new coronavirus cases reported outside of China than inside, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said today

www.cnn.com

 

[Stiflers Mom]

People keep saying this. But again, where is the data to support this? You say "we just look at the charts", what charts?
You mean the chart someone posted a couple pages ago, showing it had a case fatality rate of 0.2% for ages 10 to 39? In order for you to say, going by that data, that it is not much different from a typical flu, then you must have some flu charts you are comparing it against, right? No?
Here is some random flu data I got just from googling:

Age- and Sex-related Risk Factors for Influenza-associated Mortality in the United States Between 1997–2007

Limited information on age- and sex-specific estimates of influenza-associated death with different underlying causes is currently available. We regressed weekly age- and sex-specific US mortality outcomes underlying several causes between 1997 and 2007 ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

US Influenza (Flu) & Pneumonia Death Statistics | LiveStories

See data on flu and pneumonia deaths from the CDC, visualized as interactive charts and maps.

www.livestories.com

The data varies slightly for each flu season, but overall, we can see the mortality rate, for that similar age group (20s, 30s, etc), is around 1 to 2 per 100,000 people.
In other words, 0.001 to 0.002%. You think 0.2% and 0.002% are the same? That's a factor of 100. How could anyone honestly think it's the same as the flu?

Now, if all goes well, cases will stay low, it will peter out, and we will have nothing to worry about. But to suggest it is the same as the flu is ridiculous.

Redirect Notice

New York Times says it's easily comparable.

 

[Stiflers Mom]

I travel, shake hands, attend large conferences and entertain clients for a living . I’m also a big fatty with a brain aneurysm, High blood pressure, skin cancer and potential thyroid cancer. What do?

Mate, wish you the best, my friend..
Stay strong and take care..

 

[Siri]

Redirect Notice

New York Times says it's easily comparable.

And the BBC, a much more reliable source, is reporting this;

Coronavirus: Global growth ‘could halve’ if outbreak intensifies

A "longer lasting and more intensive" outbreak could halve growth in 2020, says the OECD.

www.bbc.com

Normal flu doesn’t impact the world like this. We’re talking about a virus that incubates way longer than the flu and kills way more people. Honestly, denial is not the way to go here.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Italy was 566 cases for the day yesterday
today's report is about an hour away hope it is down

WHO stream had some really good info about Flu vs COVID19 for those debating it Q&A section at the end

 

[Siri]

Here in Vancouver a woman who flew in from Iran has tested positive for the virus. Iran says they have just over 500 confirmed cases.

So in a country of 80 million people this woman who flew into Vancouver just happened to come into close contact with one of those 500 people?

Bullshit.

Clearly the numbers from Iran, and elsewhere, are totally bogus.

 

[Stiflers Mom]

And the BBC, a much more reliable source, is reporting this;

Coronavirus: Global growth ‘could halve’ if outbreak intensifies

A "longer lasting and more intensive" outbreak could halve growth in 2020, says the OECD.

www.bbc.com

Normal flu doesn’t impact the world like this. We’re talking about a virus that incubates way longer than the flu and kills way more people. Honestly, denial is not the way to go here.

Am I missing something here?
My link talks about lethality, yours about the stock market being in free fall.

 

[Sakura]

You're right with everything you're saying, except the real death rate for COVID-19 is probably WAY lower than numbers seem to suggest right now, because of the high number of mild cases, which were never tested. We'll have to wait a few more weeks to get the real numbers.

It depends. In Iran for example, I do believe the death rate is probably lower than what we see right now.
However, in order to have a death rate like the flu, Italy for example would have to have like 100,000 unreported mild cases, compared to the confirmed somewhere under 2000 right now. This is extremely hard to believe.

Redirect Notice

New York Times says it's easily comparable.

No it doesn't. The article doesn't say shit all.
It says "The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu, below 1 percent". Which is based on literally no data. They link an article which just says "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%". Assumes based on what? Again, nothing is provided. We would have to have more than 10x the number of actual confirmed cases, all with mild or no symptoms, in order to even get close to the death rate of a severe flu season.

 

[betrayal]

This is probably going to be a really dumb question and I am likely missing something very basic about epidemiology, but what does shutting down areas and events and getting people to stay home actually accomplish? Sure, it will reduce risk catching the Coronavirus for those people, but is that not just delaying the inevitable? Since this thing is so contagious, if even one person still carries the virus, wouldn't it just reset the whole spread of the illness once these quarantines are lifted? It all started in Wuhan with surely just a few people. What's stopping it from spreading again at the same speed?

My first thought in reaction to all of these calls to shut down schools and places of work, etc. is that the damage dealt to the economy is going to be greater than if we just proceeded in our daily lives as normal.

Am I missing something? What's the main goal of the quarantine? To ease the load on medical facilities so everyone isn't getting sick at once and needing care? To try to buy time until a vaccine is developed and tested?

Besides the things already mentioned, such as medication, a vaccination or the weather, there is a simple reason why the measures are important: Immunity. Containment and immunity can absolutely wreck a virus.

The virus can only spread if people are susceptible to it. SARS-CoV-2 is no exception to this, although two known exceptions have been reported so far, which are with almost absolute certainty test errors or other things.
People who have already been infected with the virus and have recovered are immune for a certain period of time because they already carry the antibodies. So they can no longer pass on the virus. That's exactly the reason why the spread can still be stopped. That's why it's so important that people do simple things like washing their hands and so on, because it reduces the chance of spreading the virus extremely. You just can't stress this enough. Some people think that if someone who is infected with COVID-19 coughs in a room, everyone is infected, which is nonsense.

 

[sinnergy]

I travel, shake hands, attend large conferences and entertain clients for a living . I’m also a big fatty with a brain aneurysm, High blood pressure, skin cancer and potential thyroid cancer. What do?

Nothing just life. Take care mate!

 

[betrayal]

It depends. In Iran for example, I do believe the death rate is probably lower than what we see right now.
However, in order to have a death rate like the flu, Italy for example would have to have like 1 million unreported mild cases, compared to the confirmed somewhere under 2000 right now. This is extremely hard to believe.

I'm not saying the flu has the same death rate. The coronavirus definitely has a higher death rate, but it's certainly not even close to 2% or 0.2% for people in their thirties.

If you are a healthy person under the age of 40 and you do NOT have any chronic pre-existing conditions like diabetes, COPD or heart disease, then the death rate is probably somewhere between 0.001% - 0.01%.

 

[Cybrwzrd]

Just learned that there's a confirmed case near my job. Less than 3 miles from where I'm presently sitting.

Fucking splendid.

Welp, the Corona Virus has been officially confirmed in Kent, in a town just 45 minutes away from me.

 

[DonJorginho]

I will always remember everyone here, it was great knowing you all.