Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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i have two questions that i am hoping someone can help me with ..

1) For the US - shouldn't we be on the tail end of Flu season? once flu season is over, shouldn't this help ease hospital capacity

and more importantly..

2) we talk about pre-existing conditions and how those with pre-existing conditions are more susceptible.. but is it the actual condition or the meds that person may be on that is contributing to them being more susceptible ?
It will ease up capacity somewhat sure, but still hardly enough. I believe there are only 100,000 ICU beds in the US. Even if we assume only 2% of cases will need ICU, if just 5 million people had the illness that would be 100,000 beds right there. And then keep in mind these beds aren't all empty even if flu season is over, and the distribution of beds varies by location.

It is the condition of course. Obesity for example is a pre-existing condition that would increase chance of death/severe case, but people obviously aren't taking obesity medication.
 
Smart move.


I expect that will be one end result of the Wuhan pandemic.

I've been saying for awhile that internet is The Great Decentralizer in numerous ways. Businesses are getting wise to it and building facilities in Nowhere, Flyover USA for insane cuts to their overhead with virtually no loss to productivity or connectivity.

Add in the fear of catching it from the 15,000 residents who live within a square mile of yourself and the fear of your local hospital being too strained to provide lifesaving services and suddenly the burbs don't look so bad.


Small towns are going to get fucked by this just as bad, if not worse, it's just going to take longer. We at least have qualified Doctors, and we have more beds per capita than the woods. If you get sick there, you're fucked.
The people who live in these cities do not want to move to the sticks. We want to be with other intelligent, cultured and diverse people.
They will never move to fly-over en-mass unless we're creating a new city, or fully taking one over.
 
Small towns are going to get fucked by this just as bad, if not worse, it's just going to take longer. We at least have qualified Doctors, and we have more beds per capita than the woods. If you get sick there, you're fucked.
The people who live in these cities do not want to move to the sticks. We want to be with other intelligent, cultured and diverse people.
They will never move to fly-over en-mass unless we're creating a new city, or fully taking one over.
I couldn't have written a better parody of a city-slicker if I tried. :goog_rofl:
 


So you think there are more asymptomatic people or less?

If for now we are testing only sick people I wonder if more people don't get sick enough to get tested, or if testers are doing a good job in hunting down the virus.
Some preliminary studies from Iceland and Italy suggest that the incidence of asymptomatic patients is around 50%, however they have quite small sample sizes and maybe those people will develop symptoms later.
 
Small towns are going to get fucked by this just as bad, if not worse, it's just going to take longer. We at least have qualified Doctors, and we have more beds per capita than the woods. If you get sick there, you're fucked.
The people who live in these cities do not want to move to the sticks. We want to be with other intelligent, cultured and diverse people.
They will never move to fly-over en-mass unless we're creating a new city, or fully taking one over.

I think the C stands for Cunt.
 
Gorgeous day in NYC, and the city seems far more alive than when I was here during a drab day last week. My cab driver actually hit some traffic on the way in, and the park near my house was far from desolate.

There's something kind of refreshing in seeing that life hasn't come to a complete stand still, but you can definitely see why our numbers are so high. I'm not seeing much in the way in people congregating in groups but then again, I didn't pass through Crown Heights.
 
Personally I'd be okay if the end result of the virus is to encourage a lot of people to leave mega cities and move elsewhere.

I can't help but think most of today's ills are caused by the idiocy of mega cities.

San Francisco, Seattle, Portland, NYC, Toronto all have some seriously fucked up notions of how the world should work (and are very leftist, imagine that)


Probably not going to happen. Also, traffic is horrendous everywhere as it is. How will it be when everybody moves to the suburbs?

As far as cities being the epicenter of it....well duh. You have huge populations in a small area, of course that is where the hotspots will be. Reminds me of that Bill Burr bit "90% of shark attacks happen in 2 feet of water.....no shit, thats where the people are!"
 
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I couldn't have written a better parody of a city-slicker if I tried. :goog_rofl:
I could have pushed it further, but was satisfied. :)
That said, the first sentence is the absolute truth. It is going to hit smaller towns, and they just don't have the means to provide proper care unless it is after the bigger hospitals have got it under control and can send staff/equipment.
 
Damn. Nearly 1,000 deaths in the last 24 hours in Italy.



EDIT: This Twitter account just takes the news as they come in on Bloomberg Terminal. That's why its/his posts are in all-caps.
 
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Damn. Nearly 1,000 deaths in the last 24 hours in Italy.




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Shouldnt we be seeing the gains from the lockdown by now? I know the gains by percentage have been dropping but this shits all over that. Hopefully this is a blip in the data and not a trend.
 
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Also, traffic is horrendous everywhere as it is. How will it be when everybody moves to the suburbs?
There will always be people who love the big city life (and are perfectly acceptable to the risks of living that way entails)
The problem is that for whatever reason the big city life also has some pretty messed up ways of thinking and with luck some more moderate people will see the virus as the last straw in regards to living in such an unstable environment.
I'm not suggesting everyone should live in butt fuck nowhere but smaller more reasonably sized cities seem to be faring pretty well in comparison
 
I presume you've never heard of genetics. Diseases are more prevalent in some races than others for instance. I suggest googling Sickle Cell Anemia for an easy starter.

They are prevalent on people sharing some specific genes, yes. And we can call people sharing some genes a "race", but that´s just we pattern seeking mammals using genetic traits that are easy to tell, on the other hand, if every gene was easily visible to Us, we would notice that in reality, they are more different between them than their whole race group is different from ours. Sickle Cell is more prevalent in Africa, yet Africa has the most gene diversity, the ones with the better chances to not be wiped off by viruses. But maybe you have some clue of some genes and/or enviromental conditions that make the Chinese elders more resilient to respiratory viruses?. I mean, they have been struggling with these type of viruses for some time, if they were to weaponize one maybe use another type of virus?, one that´s not gonna spread like wildfire on the massive conglomerations of people you see in Asia?.
 
I could have pushed it further, but was satisfied. :)
That said, the first sentence is the absolute truth. It is going to hit smaller towns, and they just don't have the means to provide proper care unless it is after the bigger hospitals have got it under control and can send staff/equipment.
But it's already hitting smaller towns across the country and has been for months.

tenor.gif



Shouldnt we be seeing the gains from the lockdown by now? I know the gains by percentage have been dropping but this shits all over that. Hopefully this is a blip in the data and not a trend.
Lockdown only works on the premise that we caught it in time.

How do you lockdown against a virus that is dormant and contagious for ~6 days and has been in the wild since at least November 2019?
 
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But it's already hitting smaller towns across the country and has been for months.


Lockdown only works on the premise that we caught it in time.

How do you lockdown against a virus that is dormant and contagious for ~6 days and has been in the wild since at least November 2019?

Wait another month, wait till shit gets opened back up in Easter. It will be tragic.

You're completely wrong about the 2nd part.

Lockdown is necessary only after you've fucked up the initial plan, which is contact tracing. You must lockdown once you can no longer contact trace effectively.
Like Gates said yesterday, we need a 8-10 week lockdown of the country to stop this disease.
If we get a shorter one, we'll be left with needing contact tracing to stop it from getting out of hand again, and it's very clear that parts of this country don't have the ability to do that.
 
How far behind Italy is the USA on the timeline? They were pretty close to the UK right? Fatality numbers are going to explode over the next week.
 
Wait another month, wait till shit gets opened back up in Easter. It will be tragic.

You're completely wrong about the 2nd part.

Lockdown is necessary only after you've fucked up the initial plan, which is contact tracing. You must lockdown once you can no longer contact trace effectively.
Like Gates said yesterday, we need a 8-10 week lockdown of the country to stop this disease.
If we get a shorter one, we'll be left with needing contact tracing to stop it from getting out of hand again, and it's very clear that parts of this country don't have the ability to do that.
I have no choice, of course I'll wait another month to see what happens. I'm sure you will reflect on your scaremongering when we all get over this together.

Are S. Korea and Japan still on lockdown? Does USA still have one of the lowest cases/deaths per 1m population?

Things to ponder in between deep breaths...
 
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Wait another month, wait till shit gets opened back up in Easter. It will be tragic.

You're completely wrong about the 2nd part.

Lockdown is necessary only after you've fucked up the initial plan, which is contact tracing. You must lockdown once you can no longer contact trace effectively.
Like Gates said yesterday, we need a 8-10 week lockdown of the country to stop this disease.
If we get a shorter one, we'll be left with needing contact tracing to stop it from getting out of hand again, and it's very clear that parts of this country don't have the ability to do that.
Yup, but most fucked up, so most are in lock down in some form.

And you'll be in one for about 8 weeks to get grip back to start tracing and isolating .
 
How far behind Italy is the USA on the timeline? They were pretty close to the UK right? Fatality numbers are going to explode over the next week.
What "timeline"?

USA has gained as many/more cases per day compared to Italy for awhile now.
USA reported its first case in mid-January. Italy's first cases were two weeks later.

Is there another timeline where USA got it later / has fewer confirmed cases compared to Italy?
 
Just another Friday guys


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We will 600k today.
That is a 100k in one day.
By end of week we are close to a mill.
 
Still seems like biological warfare to me. Everything closed like this. I still think somebody fucked up at that Wuhan lab and it escaped. Shits just weird. I'll strap by foil hat on a little harder guyz.
 
We will 600k today.
That is a 100k in one day.
By end of week we are close to a mill.

I think we'll be just short at 590k which I think would be 60k for today. Weekends seem to have lower numbers in a number of territories so you may see a slowdown but certainly 700k will either be tomorrow or Sunday, and I'd expect 800k on Monday.
 
I have no choice, of course I'll wait another month to see what happens. I'm sure you will reflect on your scaremongering when we all get over this together.

Are S. Korea and Japan still on lockdown? Does USA still have one of the lowest cases/deaths per 1m population?

Things to ponder in between deep breaths...

Dude, I'm chilling. Read my posts from the last 2 months. It was clear we were going to end up in this place, and it's clear where we're going to end up if we continue in this way.
My worrying was done months ago. I made sure my family was safe, and I isolated myself while i worked. Now I'm in quarantine for another week, and if I don't get symptoms, I get to be with my family again.
Some people thought I was crazy, and now they thank me everyday.

I don't want this country to be fucked though, and unfortunately we're on our way there barring a miracle of medicine, or a drastic change of course.
Trying to speed up the opening of the country is only going to cause more harm.
Giving people false hope is only going to make things more difficult when they realize how far away the end actually is.

Yup, but most fucked up, so most are in lock down in some form.

And you'll be in one for about 8 weeks to get grip back to start tracing and isolating .

I'm ready for that. We all need to be ready for that.
Like somebody else said: Our parents and grandparents went across the globe, raised arms and died in battle. Our war will be sitting home, playing games and watching movies. Somehow, we're fucking failing at that, and that's all that so many of us do on a regular basis.
 
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What "timeline"?

USA has gained as many/more cases per day compared to Italy for awhile now.
USA reported its first case in mid-January. Italy's first cases were two weeks later.

Is there another timeline where USA got it later / has fewer confirmed cases compared to Italy?

I could have sworn the USA had its first case after both the UK and Italy. Must be misremembering.
 
Still seems like biological warfare to me. Everything closed like this. I still think somebody fucked up at that Wuhan lab and it escaped. Shits just weird. I'll strap by foil hat on a little harder guyz.

Well, just look at it like this. A biochemical weapon is designed to kill you. Flu isn't designed to kill you. Stay indoors, stay safe outdoors, if you don't won't to be killed by a military experiment.

And if it's not a weapon, then no biggie, you'll probably live anyway. I'm keeping my tinfoil hat firmly in place in order to keep me alive. Almost 1000 deaths today in Italy. We are looking at 9/11 insta-death numbers.
 
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Dude, I'm chilling. Read my posts from the last 2 months. It was clear we were going to end up in this place, and it's clear where we're going to end up if we continue in this way.
My worrying was done months ago. I made sure my family was safe, and I isolated myself while i worked. Now I'm in quarantine for another week, and if I don't get symptoms, I get to be with my family again.
Some people thought I was crazy, and now they thank me everyday.

I don't want this country to be fucked though, and unfortunately we're on our way there barring a miracle of medicine, or a drastic change of course.
Trying to speed up the opening of the country is only going to cause more harm.
Giving people false hope is only going to make things more difficult when they realize how far away the end actually is.
2 weeks is a long time from now, and is 3x the average dormancy period for Wuhan coronavirus. Glad you're keeping yourself safe. I don't expect people will be forced to get back to work any time soon, anyway.

I could have sworn the USA had its first case after both the UK and Italy. Must be misremembering.
It doesn't help that some of the initial reports of "first cases" are proving to be false.

For instance:

Well, looks like the UK is starting to ask the same questions that a handful of us have been pointing out for awhile: Wuhan coronavirus has likely been out in the wild longer than Official Reports™ are claiming.


A family from East Sussex may have been Britain's first coronavirus victims, catching the virus in mid-January after one of them visited an Austrian ski resort that is now under investigation for allegedly covering up the early outbreak.

If confirmed by official tests, it would mean the outbreak in Britain started more than a month earlier than currently thought.

As things stand, the first recorded UK case was on January 31, and the earliest documented incidence of transmission within Britain occurred on February 28.

IT consultant Daren Bland, 50, was skiing in Ischgl, Austria from January 15 to 19 with three friends, two from Denmark and one from Minnesota in America.

All three fell ill on their return with classic coronavirus symptoms, and Mr Bland passed on the infection to his wife and children in Maresfield, East Sussex.


EDIT: Austria's first case according to Official Reports™ was February 25th, from two travelers from Italy. Denmark's first case was February 27th. Minnesota's first case was March 7th. Guess all those estimates are out the window, too.

EDIT: maths.
 
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