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[Jezbollah]

That in itself is reason to feel good.

Tories have thrown the entire kitchen sink at this one and nothing has budged.

To be honest, after 5 years of austerity, Labour should be at the very least 7 percentage points in front of the Tories. Scotland aside, it shouldn't be this close..

 

[King_Moc]

It annoys me that a 5% of the vote party may potentially have a significant input to the government.
Whole system needs an overhaul.

Surely with Proportional representation nothing would get done? Everything would just be getting voted down as no one in government would have a strong enough voice. Especially with the polls as they are at the moment.

To be honest, after 5 years of austerity, Labour should be at the very least 7 percentage points in front of the Tories. Scotland aside, it shouldn't be this close..

You'd be surprised how many people really believe that the economic collapse was Labour's fault, and that the Conservatives wouldn't have done it. Cameron has spent 5 years hammering that point home, and it's partially worked.

 

[kitch9]

Survation have made their Final Call in the MoS:

HEADLINE VI Survation/MoS LAB 34%; CON 31%; UKIP 17%; LD 8%; SNP 5%; GRE 4%; OTH 1%

They also did an interesting poll alongside this, with each respondent shown the actual ballot paper from their actual constituency, rather than a generic voting question:

BALLOT VI Survation/MoS: LAB 33%; CON 29%; LD 9%; UKIP 16%; GRE 6%; SNP 4%; PC 1%; OTH 2%

The figures are so similar that it's hard to draw any firm conclusions considering the margin of error. Safe to say that if either of these are close to the result, we're looking at a Labour led government.


When it comes down to it, immigration has been a massive benefit to this country historically, and continues to be so today. Cowardly politicians, wankers looking to sell newspapers, and a small core of racists have poisoned the public discourse on the subject.

We would be fucked beyond belief if immigration was curbed in the way that UKIP want it to be, that the Tories lie about wanting it to be, or that Labour coyly pretends it wants it to be. And they all know that we'd be fucked. UKIP are racist or deluded enough not to care. The Tories know they can get away with lying about it and not actually doing anything. Labour just wants the entire issue to fuck off into space.

Of course immigration is essential to a strong economy, any country who runs isolationist
immigration policies favoring people from one part of the world over another is doomed to long term problems.

Unfortunately, that is currently what we are doing.... Our politicians even make out that they will do more of it and it's going to be great!

 

[chancellor]

Surely with Proportional representation nothing would get done? Everything would just be getting voted down as no one in government would have a strong enough voice. Especially with the polls as they are at the moment.

The parties overlap on a lot of policy and where there is disagreement the parties would eventually come to a consensus since they would know that they would need to co-operate eventually. Decision making would be slower than the current system though since government would be under larger scrutiny. The only thing's that would never happen would be things on the extreme edge of the spectrum like getting rid of the Human Rights Act.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

I honestly don't know who to vote for. My local choices:

UKIP

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Seems to me on the issues I'm interested in they are all very similar looking at the party manifestos.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Lib Dem looks like the sort of guy whose house gets raided and they find bags of dead cats in his attic.

 

[Billy_Pilgrim]

Tory coup has already begun.

I think someone linked to a Vice article in this thread not long ago and it would appear that it's pretty much bang on.

Tim Shipman has been on twitter saying that senior Tories have told him that if Cameron gets the most seats, he's going to declare victory regardless.

I also have read information from connected sources who believe that on the friday after the election the Sun will have a yougov poll that shows that a certain number believe that Labour shouldn't govern, and they will try to battle on as is.

In this scenario another election is probable. Tories holding a gun to the head of parliament.

 

[Gurgelhals]

Surely with Proportional representation nothing would get done? Everything would just be getting voted down as no one in government would have a strong enough voice. Especially with the polls as they are at the moment.

Well, you'd probably have a system like in most other democracies, i.e. coalition governments among two, three or even more paties as the norm. This is standard procedure in Germany, for example, where, after the elections, the parties that intend to form a coalition usually negotiate a so-called coalition treaty that outlines the major policy goals of the government they're going to form. IIRC, there has only be a brief period in the early 1960s where Germany was governed by a single party and not a coalition.

The other possibility is what we have here in Switzerland (which, admittedly, is a highly unusual system): A parliament where no party is even close to having a majority (currently, the two largest parties each control only about 25% of the seats in the lower house) and where, for every single vote, there has to be a consensus among at least three parties for it to pass. It's a very, very slow system (that is facilitated by several other quirks such as the fact that the executive branch consists of representatives from all the five major parties across the entire poltiical spectrum) and it takes ages for laws to pass. Still, it works pretty well (and it has the advantage that there's basically no sudden policy flip-flopping when a new government comes into power, because the system inherently prevents these sudden power shifts from happening).

 

[Tak3n]

Tory coup has already begun.

I think someone linked to a Vice article in this thread not long ago and it would appear that it's pretty much bang on.

Tim Shipman has been on twitter saying that senior Tories have told him that if Cameron gets the most seats, he's going to declare victory regardless.

I also have read information from connected sources who believe that on the friday after the election the Sun will have a yougov poll that shows that a certain number believe that Labour shouldn't govern, and they will try to battle on as is.

In this scenario another election is probable. Tories holding a gun to the head of parliament.

Declaring victory and being able to run a government is two entirely different things, however as the incumbent government has first shot at making it work, I fully expect the Tories to take every last moment to do this, and at the 11th hour if it becomes clear they can not get a queen speech past parliament then they will be forced to stand down, Cameron will resign.

 

[f0rk]

To be honest, after 5 years of austerity, Labour should be at the very least 7 percentage points in front of the Tories. Scotland aside, it shouldn't be this close..

I actually hold that more against the greens, they really haven't capitalized on austerity as much as they should have

 

[CyclopsRock]

Lol "coup". Parliament is everything. If you can't pass laws, it really doesn't matter who claims anything.

 

[RedShift]

Tory coup has already begun.

I think someone linked to a Vice article in this thread not long ago and it would appear that it's pretty much bang on.

Tim Shipman has been on twitter saying that senior Tories have told him that if Cameron gets the most seats, he's going to declare victory regardless.

I also have read information from connected sources who believe that on the friday after the election the Sun will have a yougov poll that shows that a certain number believe that Labour shouldn't govern, and they will try to battle on as is.

In this scenario another election is probable. Tories holding a gun to the head of parliament.

That'll work great until the first time they try and pass literally anything in the House.

That's not to say they won't go kicking and screaming if they can't form a government, and the right wing press won't have a wobbly.

 

[pulsemyne]

Lol "coup". Parliament is everything. If you can't pass laws, it really doesn't matter who claims anything.

Exactly. It's parliment that matters not what the sun says. The tories cannot just by pass parliment. If parliment decides it wants the tories removed then there's nothing they can do. That is part and parcel of our democracy.

 

[Oblong Schlong]

Post deleted.

 

[hohoXD123]

Tory coup has already begun.

I think someone linked to a Vice article in this thread not long ago and it would appear that it's pretty much bang on.

Tim Shipman has been on twitter saying that senior Tories have told him that if Cameron gets the most seats, he's going to declare victory regardless.

I also have read information from connected sources who believe that on the friday after the election the Sun will have a yougov poll that shows that a certain number believe that Labour shouldn't govern, and they will try to battle on as is.

In this scenario another election is probable. Tories holding a gun to the head of parliament.

What can he realistically do if he can't get a Queen's Speech through? No party is going to risk another election aside from the conservatives. He dug his own grave with electoral reforms, mainly lack thereof.

 

[Tak3n]

Just have to read between the lines....

It will go.... The British people have said they want a conservative goverment, however we are short of a majority, we won the election and it is our responsibility in light of our victory to try form a government. Please bear with us, and we will try as hard as possible to make sure the British people get what they voted for

And then if they can't, they will say labour and the snp are are effectively going against the will of the people etc etc

 

[hohoXD123]

Just have to read between the lines....

It will go.... The British people have said they want a conservative goverment, however we are short of a majority, we won the election and it is our responsibility in light of our victory to try form a government. Please bear with us, and we will try as hard as possible to make sure the British people get what they voted for

And then if they can't, they will say labour and the snp are are effectively going against the will of the people etc etc

Sure, but complaining is about as much as he will be able to do in that situation, that's not going to trigger a re-election or allow him into government.

 

[King_Moc]

Just have to read between the lines....

It will go.... The British people have said they want a conservative goverment, however we are short of a majority, we won the election and it is our responsibility in light of our victory to try form a government. Please bear with us, and we will try as hard as possible to make sure the British people get what they voted for

And then if they can't, they will say labour and the snp are are effectively going against the will of the people etc etc

They can try it, but none of that logic checks out, so they're boned.

 

[iMax]

I honestly don't know who to vote for.

 

[Par Score]

A reminder that the Tory press spent the entire duration of Gordon Brown's time as PM calling him the 'unelected Prime Minister'.

This had no effect whatsoever on the actual running of government, and an unclear effect on the next election. Not to say they won't try the same bullshit, but as they fade from relevance less and less people will give a fuck.

 

[RedShift]

Farage adopting an anti Doctor Who and Strictly position on Marr. Someone should tell him how wanting to scrap Sesame Street went for Romney.

 

[Jezbollah]

A reminder that the Tory press spent the entire duration of Gordon Brown's time as PM calling him the 'unelected Prime Minister'.

This had no effect whatsoever on the actual running of government, and an unclear effect on the next election. Not to say they won't try the same bullshit, but as they fade from relevance less and less people will give a fuck.

But he was an unelected PM - he took over the role without earning a single vote from the Public.

I have accepted that, if I like it or not, If Miliband forms a government (even in a scenario with Labour winning fewer MPs than the Tories) on the back of a strategic partnership with the SNP then I WILL regard him as my PM - even if I remain unconvinced with his leadership credentials and my utter despise of Ed Balls. I never felt that way about Brown.

 

[Dr Zhivago]

Prime Ministers are never elected, they're not the President.

I'm actually looking forward to the apoplectic rage from the Tory press over a Labour minority government.

 

[PJV3]

Prime Ministers are never elected, they're not the President.

I'm actually looking forward to the apoplectic rage from the Tory press over a Labour minority government.

Yeah, The PM and ministers are working for the Crown essentially. You vote for the commons and that's it.

 

[Jezbollah]

Oh there will no doubt be a consistent narrative from the press about a minority government (same for the Tories from the left wing press if somehow they stay in) but it'll be nothing compared to the stories of the SNP deals with Labour and what laws pass through in that arrangement.

Yeah, The PM and ministers are working for the Crown essentially. You vote for the commons and that's it.

Indeed - however I think a vast percentage dont remember this and don't actually vote for their local MP rather they vote for the party....

 

[War Peaceman]

Prime Ministers are never elected, they're not the President.

Exactly. Plus it is not as if Gordon Brown was some unknown who suddenly emerged as PM after Blair. He'd basically been the number 2 since 1997.

The bigger problem with new labour (and modern politics really) is how much power unelected special advisers, Crosbys and Alistair Campbells have.

 

[mclem]

Farage adopting an anti Doctor Who and Strictly position on Marr.

And so it turns out that the entirety of UKIP was really formed in protest about Erin Boag leaving.

 

[RedShift]

Exactly. Plus it is not as if Gordon Brown was some unknown who suddenly emerged as PM after Blair. He'd basically been the number 2 since 1997.

The bigger problem with new labour (and modern politics really) is how much power unelected special advisers, Crosbys and Alistair Campbells have.

If I remember right the conservatives went into the '05 election running with the slogan 'Vote Blair, Get Brown', so it's not like people didn't know what was going to happen.

 

[Dr Zhivago]

Slightly baffling end to Sunday Politics with all 3 of their panelists thinking Cameron will be PM because of 'legitimacy'. How is that supposed to work? Do they really think Labour or the SNP will support a Tory Queen's Speech?

 

[Cyd0nia]

Slightly baffling end to Sunday Politics with all 3 of their panelists thinking Cameron will be PM because of 'legitimacy'. How is that supposed to work? Do they really think Labour or the SNP will support a Tory Queen's Speech?

This has been posted already but basically, this:

https://opendemocracy.net/ourkingdo...coup-and-labour-is-doing-nothing-to-stop-them

Ed's absolutist refusal to work with the SNP does mean this *could* actually happen. What the consequences would be for the longevity of a government declaring victory in that way ...well, who knows.

I think the public would be angry and looking for someone to blame if someone tries to form a government or coalition without a majority of seats represented by the given parties. Cameron AND Milliband are risking it all.

 

[Par Score]

But he was an unelected PM - he took over the role without earning a single vote from the Public.

About 30,000 people voted for him, which is around the same number that voted for David Cameron or that voted for Tony Blair.

 

[Jezbollah]

About 30,000 people voted for him, which is around the same number that voted for David Cameron or that voted for Tony Blair.

Please.. You know exactly what I meant - stood for election for PM. Of course they're all MPs...

 

[Cyd0nia]

Please.. You know exactly what I meant - stood for election for PM. Of course they're all MPs...

I thought we voted for parties and party manifestos - not gelatin condom faced personalities

 

[Tak3n]

I think with the delay to the restart of parliament the Tories are not going to go, and will likely send the country into a re election on the mandate that they are the largest party....

But this is all labours fault, ed should of shut the fuck up and done a coalition with snp

 

[Par Score]

I thought we voted for parties and party manifestos - not gelatin condom faced personalities

We actually vote for individual candidates. There is absolutely nothing stopping every elected candidate renouncing their party affiliation or switching party, apart from likely political annihilation at the next election.

The Party System is a hack layered over the top of our basic parliamentary democracy, because when it comes down to it nobody wants 650 independents who have to cobble together something after the fact.

So now we'll have 3 or 4 parties cobbling something together instead.

 

[Kathian]

Slightly baffling end to Sunday Politics with all 3 of their panelists thinking Cameron will be PM because of 'legitimacy'. How is that supposed to work? Do they really think Labour or the SNP will support a Tory Queen's Speech?

Portillo had it right on This Week; Miliband will be PM. I think its just some people haven't accepted the country shifter under Blair and Brown just as the country shifted under Thatcher.

Cameron failed to do enough in 2010; why some expect him to gain anything this election am not sure.

 

[Maledict]

Please.. You know exactly what I meant - stood for election for PM. Of course they're all MPs...

Nobody has ever stood for election as PM for the public. if your ballot papers has a voting column for prime minister on it, its a fake.

Its weird how the Daily Mail and Telegraph weren't bothered about Major being an unelected Prime MInister after the Tories deposed Thatcher.

 

[Jezbollah]

Nobody has ever stood for election as PM for the public. if your ballot papers has a voting column for prime minister on it, its a fake.

Its weird how the Daily Mail and Telegraph weren't bothered about Major being an unelected Prime MInister after the Tories deposed Thatcher.

It's going a bit too far back than I can remember, but did the likes of the Mirror/Guardian have the same kind of reporting back then than the Mail/Telegraph did with Brown?

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

My sister is voting Cons as "labour put us in this mess" and to stop "letting them in".

Another friend is voting Cons to "let them finish what they started"

Another is voting UKIP because we should "look out for ourselves" and because "they're not racists". The amount we spend on foreign aid is "ridiculous",

Living in a small middle-class bubble town is the worst. The Torygraph and Mail infect this place like the plague. Keep my views to myself because no one here explores the root of what they talk about.

It's easy to be ignorant.

Spoiler

did you guys also know that UKIP is like the only party which has hired a financial analyst looking at how to actually clear the debt?

 

[Jezbollah]

^^ you should see what it's like to be in south Essex.. UKIP everywhere...

 

[CyclopsRock]

Philip Collins (not *that* Phil Collins - Blair's ex advisor and speechwriter who writes for The Times) wrote an interesting piece re: legitimacy. I won't copy and paste the whole thing but here's a segment:

Even the modern Bagehot, Professor Vernon Bogdanor, weighed in to declare Mr Clegg’s view “absurd”. The political scientist, Philip Cowley, added that “what will determine who gets into No 10 after the election will be the numbers, not bogus arguments about legitimacy”. If any leader can command 323 votes in the House of Commons a government can be formed, they said. The mathematics are brutal and unanswerable.
I am about to commit the political equivalent of swearing in church but the distinguished professors Bogdanor and Cowley are wrong about legitimacy, as are all the website seat-projection artists. It is true that any alliance of parties that can command a Commons majority will be legal and constitutionally permitted to do so. It does not follow that such a government would, therefore, be legitimate because, if we take our eyes out of the weeds for a moment, that is not what legitimacy means.
The founding philosopher of political legitimacy is John Locke who wrote, in the Second Treatise, that “government is not legitimate unless it is carried on with the consent of the governed”. It makes sense to say, for example, that the unelected House of Lords has less legitimacy than the elected Commons. That does not make the Lords unconstitutional.
It is in this context that the Labour party has to consider the outcome being urged upon it by the desiccated calculating machines. Think about a situation in which Labour comes second, both on share of the vote and number of seats won, but can nevertheless, with the support of the third party, the nationalists, the SDLP and George Galloway, gather 330 seats. Enough to govern. Should they then pursue it? Well, in the event they decided not to do so, because those are the 2010 election numbers, if you replace the SNP now with the Liberal Democrats then. Senior Labour people felt at the time, rightly, that they had lost. They felt that a Labour-led government would have been possible but not legitimate.
The question of legitimacy will linger after this election. A prime minister will take office on a low share of a low turnout. A Tory-led coalition will lack legitimacy in Scotland but will at least have the argument that it is led by the party that won most seats and votes. A Labour-led coalition will lack legitimacy in England and, if it is governing from a clear second place, it might be better to seek a second election than to walk first into power and then into oblivion.

In other words, it's not that they can't do it, it's whether the people feel like the country has got the sort of government they voted for. It's not like, if they don't, they will have to voluntarily dissolve but rather whoever that main ruling party is might find itself punished at the ballot box if they don't seek a second election.

 

[Spaced Harrier]

Surely with Proportional representation nothing would get done? Everything would just be getting voted down as no one in government would have a strong enough voice. Especially with the polls as they are at the moment.

You do know your island neighbours to the west have been using it for 90 years or so?

 

[Walshicus]

Farage adopting an anti Doctor Who and Strictly position on Marr. Someone should tell him how wanting to scrap Sesame Street went for Romney.

What did he say? Missed it...

 

[Go_Ly_Dow]

^^ you should see what it's like to be in south Essex.. UKIP everywhere...

not too far away. Cambridgeshire.

 

[Jezbollah]

Philip Collins (not *that* Phil Collins - Blair's ex advisor and speechwriter who writes for The Times) wrote an interesting piece re: legitimacy. I won't copy and paste the whole thing but here's a segment:



In other words, it's not that they can't do it, it's whether the people feel like the country has got the sort of government they voted for. It's not like, if they don't, they will have to voluntarily dissolve but rather whoever that main ruling party is might find itself punished at the ballot box if they don't seek a second election.

Cheers for that Cyclops - very interesting indeed.

 

[AGoodODST]

Scottish Labour have played right into Cameron's hands in Scotland. Should they get a higher number of seats than Labour, the Conservaties will have a whole campaigns worth of Labour MPs insisting "the biggest party forms the government".

Going to amusing watching Miliband throw Murphy under the bus without a seconds thought should that happen.

 

[King_Moc]

What did he say? Missed it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FutJptCm6s

Last year they were saying they wanted to remove grants from theaters which featured political jokes from comedians. Sounds like they'd be great for freedom of speech in the UK.

Going to amusing watching Miliband throw Murphy under the bus without a seconds thought should that happen.

I think it's fair to say that Murphy is already under the bus and we're just waiting for his mangled corpse to emerge on the other side.

 

[Maledict]

Philip Collins (not *that* Phil Collins - Blair's ex advisor and speechwriter who writes for The Times) wrote an interesting piece re: legitimacy. I won't copy and paste the whole thing but here's a segment:



In other words, it's not that they can't do it, it's whether the people feel like the country has got the sort of government they voted for. It's not like, if they don't, they will have to voluntarily dissolve but rather whoever that main ruling party is might find itself punished at the ballot box if they don't seek a second election.

My counterpoint would be that if Labour goes into a minority government with SNP support on a Queen's bill then the majority of the country *will* have gotten the government they voted for. Unless you seriously think that a lot of SNP voters would prefer the conservatives in power, there's clearly a majority of people who would rather a Labour government. The arguement over legitmacy is extremely poisonous because it undermines not only our entire parliamentary system, but it also trashes the idea of parties outside Labour and Conservative.

I'd also note that the reason Labour didn't retain power after 2010 wasn't as simple as 'they didn't think it would have legitamacy'. They tried negotiating with the Lib Dems, but there were a number of stumbling blocks:

1) Their coalition would have been astonishingly shakey. BY combing Labour with Lib, SNP, PLaid CYmri and independents they could *just* corss the threshold but that would never have held together long
2) the conservatives made a better offer to the Lib Dems over a coalition (in particular, they promised to whip the AV vote through parliament, which Labour refused to agree to)
3) Brown was a huge stumbling block due to his incredibly unpopularity
4) The party had just suffered its biggest electoral loss since the early 20th century, so again they felt very much they had to give up.

Only the last one really concerns the legitamacy angle.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Brown actually offered a referendum on PR to Clegg, but it would have been unwhipped because he couldn't talk round the Blairites. Wouldn't have made it through the commons.

 

[Maledict]

Brown actually offered a referendum on PR to Clegg, but it would have been unwhipped because he couldn't talk round the Blairites. Wouldn't have made it through the commons.

Yep - whipping the vote was critical, and Brown couldn't promise that. Such a shame in many respects - both the failure to get a proper propoertional option, but then also how the conservatives demolished poor clueless Clegg in the AV referendum.

I thought when that vote went down we wouldn't see a new electoral system proposal in my lifetime, but recent events have given me a spark of hope that we might. The current system is so blatently, ridiculously flawed right now and that fact it isn't even capable of producing a 'strong' government should consig it to the rubbish bin.