May 7th | UK General Election 2015 OT - Please go vote!

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phisheep said:
I'm not entirely sure that I get your argument here avaya. You're not denying, surely, that there is a deficit. And I gather the point of borrowing is not whether we would be able to do it, but at what cost - and that's something that does have a pretty substantial impact on the public finances.
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My point is that at ZLB there is no need to focus on cuts to reduce the deficit. I'm not saying it isn't important but in the current conditions it is basically irrelevant.

Your only worry is can you fund yourself in this environment? The answer is resolutely yes. It always has been. We have never been in a situation where it wasn't the case. It is actually something we will never have to worry about for a long time unless we are seriously profligate. The bond market currently has negative yields, this is not the 1970s/80s anymore when you need to be wary of the bond vigilantes. They have all gone away. Financial deregulation has vastly expanded the pool of assets they can play with, to worry about them is an irrelevance.

The focus on an accounting identity over actual rational policy is insane to me. In this situation the government is supposed to spend. It is supposed to borrow. It will fix itself. The medieval torture we have exerted on ourselves is based not on economic illiteracy but an ideological drive to use this situation to the advantage of political interests.

The focus should be on what you need to create growth. Not what you need to cut. Both the Conservatives and Labour have proposed policies which are economically illiterate. We aren't dealing in facts anymore. The media narrative is obfuscated by the idea of 'credibility' and that credibility only comes from identifying cuts to to reduce the deficit.
 
I'd have agreed with you a few years ago, but we've seen five consecutive quarters of real wage rises. The economy isn't in recession any more, and there isn't the same need to push aggregate demand using government spending. Now, I'm not necessarily sold on the necessity of sharp, immediate cuts; the effect might be to send the economy back into the slumps. But, as it is, it is more likely we're headed towards a boom period and not a bust period. In that context, if there are any gradual reductions that can be made to the deficit that induce an AD change less than the underlying increase in the rate of growth, I don't see why we shouldn't make them.
 
avaya said:
My point is that at ZLB there is no need to focus on cuts to reduce the deficit. I'm not saying it isn't important but in the current conditions it is basically irrelevant.

Your only worry is can you fund yourself in this environment? The answer is resolutely yes. It always has been. We have never been in a situation where it wasn't the case. It is actually something we will never have to worry about for a long time unless we are seriously profligate. The bond market currently has negative yields, this is not the 1970s/80s anymore when you need to be wary of the bond vigilantes. They have all gone away. Financial deregulation has vastly expanded the pool of assets they can play with, to worry about them is an irrelevance.

The focus on an accounting identity over actual rational policy is insane to me. In this situation the government is supposed to spend. It is supposed to borrow. It will fix itself. The medieval torture we have exerted on ourselves is based not on economic illiteracy but an ideological drive to use this situation to the advantage of political interests.

The focus should be on what you need to create growth. Not what you need to cut. Both the Conservatives and Labour have proposed policies which are economically illiterate. We aren't dealing in facts anymore. The media narrative is obfuscated by the idea of 'credibility' and that credibility only comes from identifying cuts to to reduce the deficit.
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This.
All this.
 
avaya said:
My point is that at ZLB there is no need to focus on cuts to reduce the deficit. I'm not saying it isn't important but in the current conditions it is basically irrelevant.
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Would probably help if I knew what a ZLB was ...
 
phisheep said:
Would probably help if I knew what a ZLB was ...
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I'm guessing zero lower bound, the term for when the central bank's rate of interest is approaching 0% and therefore conventional expansionary monetary policy is no longer possible.
 
kmag said:
Cameron proposing tax break for married couples, a 100,000 threshold on immigration, and a freeze on VAT. Did I wake up in 2010? What was Einstein's definition of insanity again?
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Don't forget a balanced budget by the end of the Parliament. Except this time they're super serious about it!

What an utter joke of a campaign, it's only worse that people actually fall for this shit.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
You'd have thought so wouldn't you? But alas, no.
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A great example why none of the ingrained political elite should get their hands on power again for a generation.

avaya said:
One of the saddest and depressing issues about this election is the success of the austerity narrative painted in the media. The focus on the deficit. This outrageous lie, an ideologically driven policy that has permeated into the public consciousness as necessary to achieve credibility in any economic debate. It is of course total rubbish, since such policy is ineffectual at the ZLB.

The deficit at ZLB is irrelevant. The cuts proposed by the Conservatives are ideological, unnecessary and damaging. The Labour party has sold it's soul and has not pushed back against this right-wing narrative with facts. It has adopted a similar set of proposals in order to appear 'credible'. The credibility debate being a crock of shit to begin with.

People are so poorly educated about the situation they find themselves in. In 2010 this country was not in any grave danger. At all. We were never going to not be able to borrow. The pound was not going to collapse. Anyone trying to paint a picture that it was is peddling bullshit.

I hope for SNP involvement in any coalition formed. The only way to pull us back to the centre from the current batshit insane right of centre special interest dominated policy.

EDIT: My constituency is Westminster, my MP is an evangelical Christian Conservative. A good bloke but I disagree with him on everything.
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You seriously believe nothing was wrong and that cuts aren't necessary?

Absolutely crazy and no doubt will spiel some macroeconomic rubbish that gets wheeled out by certain political supporters and yet demonstrably untrue every single time they leave the country in the pits.

Wealth was created by the way in the private sector, where as your mindset would have pumped more cash into an inefficient public sector who had no real value to a country. Complete pie in the sky thinking, where rules for money with countries somehow becomes meaningless.
 
Lirlond said:
I'm in the exact same boat, Willie Bain is clearly on the way out. His surgeries were practically empty this year.
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I think Willie Bain will hold on. He is very active locally and I think he has enough of a personal vote that will pull him through. If Willie Bain loses his seat then Labour will be wiped out completely.
 
Crab said:
These was a sharp drop-off around the time Miliband switched from audience questions to Paxman. Probably nothing to do with him and more to do with what time it was. The fact not many people watched the whole thing is sort of irrelevant, because the commentariat watched the whole thing and reported on it the next day widely giving Ed the victory, hence why there seems to have been a poll boost. We don't have enough polls yet to be confident about the exact size, but it is very probably at least a 1% bump given it generated a 4% lead on a 3% margin of error.

I imagine it will fade quite quickly.
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Second post-Paxman interview poll is in aaaaaaand.....

CON 36%(+1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), GRN 5%(-2)

One four point Lab lead, one four point Con lead.
 
Populus have Con/Lab even on 34% today. The polls have been static for months, both parties have been rigid to c. 33% +- the standard 3% margin of error. One poll on one day showing a slightly bigger lead for Labour or Conservative does not a shift make.
 
killer_clank said:
Populus have Con/Lab even on 34% today. The polls have been static for months, both parties have been rigid to c. 33% +- the standard 3% margin of error. One poll on one day showing a slightly bigger lead for Labour or Conservative does not a shift make.
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Tell that to The Times!
 
Did anybody see Lucy Powell on the Tele yesterday? Apart from coming across as entirely incompetent, she also provided some insight into Labour’s deficit reduction plan. I.E - it doesn’t exist.

She said that the 50p top rate of tax how Labour would target deficit reduction and that no other tax receipts would be used for this purpose. I can’t imagine that will make much of a dent at all, if any.

I know Labour claim they will get more people paying tax...but that is one area where the current Gov actually fared quite well. Not at all convinced by this “plan”.

And at the same time they’re going to be borrowing to fund their spending plans.

In other words, the deficit is going back up under a Labour Gov. Either that or their Chief Election Planner doesn’t know what she’s talking about.
 
killer_clank said:
Populus have Con/Lab even on 34% today. The polls have been static for months, both parties have been rigid to c. 33% +- the standard 3% margin of error. One poll on one day showing a slightly bigger lead for Labour or Conservative does not a shift make.
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Well exactly. But this second poll coming out makes this:

CBN_ouLUIAAfucp.jpg
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look a tad silly, no?

CyclopsRock said:
Tell that to The Times!
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Basically
 
Vivalaraza said:
Did anybody see Lucy Powell on the Tele yesterday? Apart from coming across as entirely incompetent, she also provided some insight into Labour’s deficit reduction plan. I.E - it doesn’t exist.

She said that the 50p top rate of tax how Labour would target deficit reduction and that no other tax receipts would be used for this purpose. I can’t imagine that will make much of a dent at all, if any.
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It's always quite hard to work that out I think, because right now - at 45% - the top bracket of income tax payers are paying more income tax, both as a share of tax and in real terms. But then since it changed from 50% to 45%, the economy has done a whole lot better so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
 
Faddy said:
I think Willie Bain will hold on. He is very active locally and I think he has enough of a personal vote that will pull him through. If Willie Bain loses his seat then Labour will be wiped out completely.
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The fact we're even debating the possibility of a guy with a 16,000 majority losing is all you need to know, really.
 
CyclopsRock said:
It's always quite hard to work that out I think, because right now - at 45% - the top bracket of income tax payers are paying more income tax, both as a share of tax and in real terms. But then since it changed from 50% to 45%, the economy has done a whole lot better so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
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Sure - but if there is any impact to be had, it'll be minimal.

That cannot be Labour's plan to reduce the deficit. Surely not.
 
CyclopsRock said:
Tell that to The Times!
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They all do it. The Guardian did similar a couple of weeks back. Fundamentally this is still most likely a tie (or at most one of them is a point or two up on the either way).

To be fair to the papers they're paying for the polling normally so it's understandable they wet their pants with excitement in regards to the importance of the THEIR poll.
 
kmag said:
They all do it. The Guardian did similar a couple of weeks back. Fundamentally this is still most likely a tie (or at most one of them is a point or two up on the either way).

To be fair to the papers they're paying for the polling normally so it's understandable they wet their pants with excitement in regards to the importance of the THEIR poll.
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Absolutely, and they sort of need to make a splash for it becaus it's only "exclusive" for about 20 minutes before the results are on Twitter. But you have to think they'll look like they have egg on their face when their next self-funded polls says something contrary to the political narrative displayed there. I think they shot their load a little early - a few days before the polls and sure. But there's still 5 weeks of polls every other day to come.
 
Camerons youtube video says this is the most important election of a generation, its also the one with the worst candidates, the worst plans and creating in me the most apathetic of feelings.
 
vcassano1 said:
Neither party has a sincere interest in reducing the deficit.
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I doubt either party has many sincere intentions whatsoever.

But the current Government has managed to reduce that deficit somewhat. What I heard yesterday suggests Labour's plan is likely to send it the other way.

Does anybody have a link which outlines their plan in more detail?

(Of course, some people don't consider deficit reduction an important factor as we have seen on this page. For those of us who do, this is worrying, especially if you're somebody who wants to vote Labour)
 
jimbobsmells said:
In cash terms? No it's been closer to a third. As a % of GDP then maybe yes, but that's not the best news when you consider what our GDP must be doing.
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Well use whatever metric you like. In 2010 the cuts had public support, they've been enacted to a not insignificant degree (though not as high as originally presented) and the public are still broadly supportive of many cuts. I'm not sure how one can look at this information and think that, at least the Tories don't have a sincere interest in reducing the deficit.
 
Faddy said:
I think Willie Bain will hold on. He is very active locally and I think he has enough of a personal vote that will pull him through. If Willie Bain loses his seat then Labour will be wiped out completely.
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He did WELL locally, but now no one is visiting his drop in hours. At least the one in Milton. Dunno how the Springburn one is looking, but my local one is empty most of the time.
 
CyclopsRock said:
Well use whatever metric you like. In 2010 the cuts had public support, they've been enacted to a not insignificant degree (though not as high as originally presented) and the public are still broadly supportive of many cuts. I'm not sure how one can look at this information and think that, at least the Tories don't have a sincere interest in reducing the deficit.
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I agree with you, but I think it's extremely disingenuous to claim that Labour are not also sincere and willing to do what's necessary to reduce the deficit (however we define that).
 
jimbobsmells said:
I agree with you, but I think it's extremelly disingenuous to claim that Labour are not also sincere and willing to do what's necessary to reduce the deficit (however we define that).
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Well indeedy, it's certainly a lot harder to defend that. They've not had the opportunity to demonstrate a willingness to enact cuts yet, and they've opposed almost every cut going thus far.
 
QuicheFontaine said:
Second post-Paxman interview poll is in aaaaaaand.....

CON 36%(+1), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 12%(+2), GRN 5%(-2)

One four point Lab lead, one four point Con lead.
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It's interesting because these polls are outside each others' margin of error, indicating the difference is at least partly methodological.
 
@LordAshcroft also has Tories on 36 (same share as 2010); Ukip down to 10: CON 36 (+3) LAB 34 (+1) LIB 6 (-2) UKIP 10 (-2) GRN 7 (+2)

Interesting trend seems to be that the cumulative Tory + Lab voteshare is creeeeeeping up as we get closer to the election. At the last GE they got 65.1% of the voteshare. This poll puts their cumulative total on 70%. This is chiefly thanks to the Lib Dem's wanking themselves into tear-filled oblivion but it goes to show that the two major party's hold over the political middle ground isn't quite as shaky as we all thought, perhaps. Going forwards, I can see this trend continuing tbh as people are forced to make their Dave vs Ed decisions.
 
The comres poll is a phone poll and the past 4 polls have shown a tory lead (most pollsters dislike phone polls as they can generate some odd results). This probably means that there is an inherent tory bias in their poll weighting (different pollsters use different weightings). The populus poll showing even numbers is most likely the correct number. Ashcrofts polls also tend to be more tory in it's weighting. It's still looking like a hung parliament with both sides being roughly even in numbers of seats.

Also
"This is chiefly thanks to the Lib Dem's wanking themselves into tear-filled oblivion "
Fair does that's quality.
 
Lord Ashcroft poll today has Tories on two point lead at 36%, I think that four point labour lead yougov poll from the other day was a blip. To be honest I think both parties are pretty much statistically tied (the current poll of polls show this).

I think many have just not made up their minds. This campaign will be brutal.

Edit: Ashcroft also gives the Tories a 6 point lead England only.
 
http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...ll-miliband-will-have-backtrack-spending-cuts

John McDonnell says he has a bloc of backbenchers who'll oppose any more austerity policies from a Labour government.

At a recent meeting with Miliband he told him that any government he leads could be "the most radical" since Attlee and "perhaps more radical". After Miliband agreed with him, McDonnell declares that he is "more optimistic now about the role of the left in the Labour Party than at any time in the last 20 years". He praises the leadership’s support for a mansion tax (a "staggering" shift from New Labour), its opposition to NHS privatisation and its pledge to outlaw the blacklisting of trade union members.
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