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[Arsenal]

Do you really think Enchant Arm serves as a good barometer here? I can't help but think that the software drought may have had a positive influence on its sales (360 wasn't exactly brimming with software at the time of its release). I could be wrong, though.

I think that EA sales serve as kind of a baseline for how many people are interested in that kind of game on the 360. If a steady stream of JRPGs continues, it will slowly build on that base.

EA's success was pretty limited though - one decent month of NPD sales, not much else anywhere (worldwide) - maybe it hit like 250k sales total? To say that BD will sell 1 mil based off of EA is a bit of a stretch - it might do it, but to me that would show that the 360 managed to build that kind of audience beyond the core users it already has.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I think that EA sales serve as kind of a baseline for how many people are interested in that kind of game on the 360. If a steady stream of JRPGs continues, it will slowly build on that base.

EA's success was pretty limited though - one decent month of NPD sales, not much else anywhere (worldwide) - maybe it hit like 250k sales total? To say that BD will sell 1 mil based off of EA is a bit of a stretch - it might do it, but to me that would show that the 360 managed to build that kind of audience beyond the core users it already has.

Or wouldn't it stand a chance to do better because Blue Dragon is, by many accounts, wildly more accomplished? I know I have a significant interest in RPGs and haven't gotten EA because it never seemed worth its asking price. When Blue Dragon is released to much better reviews and, assuming it gets some nice, FFVII style advertising from MS, it has a very large chance to do significantly better.

 

[jimbo]

What ? I expected a lot more. And the Nintendo DS...Bah, you know: it is just the begin.

Really? Why? I am just curious. I mean we already had numbers that the 360 sold anywhere between 27k-30k bundles. And it also only sold 4k last week. That would put it between 31-34k sold for the week if the regular number remained the same.


Why did you expect more than that?

 

[FateBreaker]

what? blue dragon, 80k? Please clarify - is this separate or including the bundle thing?

man, this is ridiculous. i was thinking easily 150-200k+. why the hell don't japanese still buy this. i hope it has legs, because i'm sure as hell excited to see more triple-A blue-dragon-like RPGs coming for my Xbox360. (MGS, you better do a damn good job of translating.)

 

[Arsenal]

Or wouldn't it stand a chance to do better because Blue Dragon is, by many accounts, wildly more accomplished? I know I have a significant interest in RPGs and haven't gotten EA because it never seemed worth its asking price. When Blue Dragon is released to much better reviews and, assuming it gets some nice, FFVII style advertising from MS, it has a very large chance to do significantly better.

Well, I think it is a given that BD will do significantly better because of those things. My point was simply that EA doesn't really stand out in my mind as being a big success, it merely did alright for a JRPG on the platform given the core audience. I am in the same boat btw, I have been waiting for EA to hit the discount bins because I didn't want to pay full price and most retailers do not even carry the title any more - the main options I have seen have been online for full price.

 

[jimbo]

Bingo.

360 fans seem to be ravenous for hardcore sports/racer/fps sim style games and not much else.

This is the reason the XBOX didn't do much better than the Cube last generation, and unless Microsoft brokers a flood of different styled games exclusively for the 360 soon, this generation won't be much different, 6 million lead notwithstanding.

Some of you crack me up. I swear.

"The 360 will never be mainstream because in needs more variety, more JRPG's!"

360 gets AAA Japanese rpg.

"This game won't sell on the 360 user base because it's not what they buy"


:lol

Make up your minds!

In reality though the 360 user base has shown it will buy just about anything that gets a good review with only Viva Pinata getting shoved under the carpet as the only truly great game that went unoticed. BD will sell just fine in the US. This thread right here proves it. If it can move hardware in Japan, to Japanese gamers, it can sell AND move hardware in the US to gamers who have JRPG tastes where it not only has the biggest installed base, but also the most positive image.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

Some of you crack me up. I swear.

"The 360 will never be mainstream because in needs more variety, more JRPG's!"

360 gets AAA Japanese rpg.

"This game won't sell on the 360 user base because it's not what they buy"


:lol

Make up your minds!

Jesus people here don't listen:

ONE TITLE does not a mainstream system make.

 

[jimbo]

Jesus people here don't listen:

ONE TITLE does not a mainstream system make.

No one said it did. But you gotta start somewhere. And besides it's not the first as has already been pointed out.

If EA, with no advertising, and really lots of negative inital impressions can sell like it did, so can BD. Will it tear up the charts? Probably not. Can it do 500k? I say if Saint's Row and Dead Rising can, so can this with ease. It all depends on when it gets released and how. If it comes out next to a game like Halo or GOW it will probably get swallowed and lost in all the hype. If it comes out around spring it can do great.

 

[Razoric]

Jesus people here don't listen:

ONE TITLE does not a mainstream system make.

I believe 360 has a shitload of JRPGS in the pipeline.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I believe 360 has a shitload of JRPGS in the pipeline.

I dunno about a 'shitload', but they do have a somewhat steady stream of them down the pipeline. That is what the 360 needs to do if they want to grow the JRPG market. Blue Dragon is a nice start, but if they want to make anything of it hardware-side they have to capitalize by introducing new titles.

For the slow, I am saying this to counter the people expecting Blue Dragon to blow the doors off of the 360 and sell 1000000 + units worldwide.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I dunno about a 'shitload', but they do have a somewhat steady stream of them down the pipeline.

They've got Console Year 2007 on lockdown, at least.

 

[jimbo]

I dunno about a 'shitload', but they do have a somewhat steady stream of them down the pipeline. That is what the 360 needs to do if they want to grow the JRPG market. Blue Dragon is a nice start, but if they want to make anything of it hardware-side they have to capitalize by introducing new titles.

For the slow, I am saying this to counter the people expecting Blue Dragon to blow the doors off of the 360 and sell 1000000 + units worldwide.

But it should easily do 1 mil world-wide. I don't expect it to do 1 mil in any one region but come on....the game is on track for 200k in Japan on a user base that's barely past that. There are more JRPG fans that currently own a 360 in the US and Europe than there are 360 owners in Japan.

The way I see it is there are currently 6-7 million hardcore gamers that own the 360, and if they're anything like me and the rest of the guys on GAF then they're just STARVING for something like BD. After all, that's why I spent money for Enchanted Arms.

Besides, I am proof and my word is final. None of the games I have ever bought on day one has gone to sell less than 500k. Therefore.....I plan on buying BD day one...+500k sales guaranteed

 

[sphinx]

let me add a " in before " post

I am being in this thread before:

.- people who already know that DS,PS2 and WII HW will outsell the PS3, posting " OOHHH MMMY GOOOOD!! PWNED TOTAL! " replies like noone could have EVER imagined that it was going to happen.

.- people who already know that the DS will outsell the PSP anything between 3 and 10 to 1 and posting in a shocking state " HOLY ****ING CRAP! UNBELIEVABLE! ", again like it was completely unexpected.

.- People doing damage control about low Zelda sales, despite all the awareness that Zelda is just NOT hot in japan, period.

.- People doing damage control about Blue Dragon/360 not changing anything in the big picture of japan's next-gen console war, even though it will have decent/good/great launch sales.

I am curious about how many posts about this 4 points will appear

done.

 

[KeithFranklin]

I believe 360 has a shitload of JRPGS in the pipeline.

Maybe shitload isnt the correct word, but 360 has more JRPGS than the Wii and PS3 combined (well at least announced and shown).

 

[Scalemail Ted]

Have hardware numbers come out yet?

 

[GhaleonEB]

let me add a " in before " post

I am being in this thread before:

.- people who already know that DS,PS2 and WII HW will outsell the PS3, posting " OOHHH MMMY GOOOOD!! PWNED TOTAL! " replies like noone could have EVER imagined that it was going to happen.

.- people who already know that the DS will outsell the PSP anything between 3 and 10 to 1 and posting in a shocking state " HOLY ****ING CRAP! UNBELIEVABLE! ", again like it was completely unexpected.

.- People doing damage control about low Zelda sales, despite all the awareness that Zelda is just NOT hot in japan, period.

.- People doing damage control about Blue Dragon/360 not changing anything in the big picture of japan's next-gen console war, even though it will have decent/good/great launch sales.

I am curious about how many posts about this 4 points will appear

done.

We're over eight hundred and sixty posts into the thread. Do you really think you got in before any of that, several times over? :lol

Have hardware numbers come out yet?

About six hours from now.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Really? Why? I am just curious. I mean we already had numbers that the 360 sold anywhere between 27k-30k bundles. And it also only sold 4k last week. That would put it between 31-34k sold for the week if the regular number remained the same.


Why did you expect more than that?

I expected that who has bought the X360 would have bought it for Blue Dragon. In otehr words, I expected an higher attach rate. Yeah, with "more then that" I wanna say something around 50k.
Of course I think that next week, the sales will go down. Thsi is the classic game that has no legs.

 

[Pellham]

I believe 360 has a shitload of JRPGS in the pipeline.

a shitload of JRPGs that wont sell very well in Japan due to the lack of 360 userbase. Hey the Dreamcast had literally hundreds of RPGs, SRPGs, and dating sims, and look where that got it.

JRPGs do not guarentee console success in Japan. Franchise hits and "non-game" phenomenoms do.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I expected that who has bought the X360 would have bought it for Blue Dragon. In otehr words, I expected an higher attach rate. Yeah, with "more then that" I wanna say something around 50k.
Of course I think that next week, the sales will go down. Thsi is the classic game that has no legs.

Just look at the situation.

-According to estimates, the game has already sold to 40%+ of the 360's installed base
-Only ~30k of the 100k bundles have been sold
-The goal for the game is 200k, and in two days it moved 80k

Of course the game won't have legs in the sense that we'll see it up on the top of the charts next week. But at the least the other 70k of Blue Dragon hardware bundles will move, and probably most if not all of it this year. If they do, that's 150k out of the goal of 200. Not unreasonable that it will move another 50k over the lifetime of the system. Heck, that's probably lowballing it.

I think it will hang around the top 30 for a couple weeks, as the bundles move, then disappear.

a shitload of JRPGs that wont sell very well in Japan due to the lack of 360 userbase. Hey the Dreamcast had literally hundreds of RPGs, SRPGs, and dating sims, and look where that got it.

JRPGs do not guarentee console success in Japan. Franchise hits and "non-game" phenomenoms do.

An RPG just caused at least a 10x jump in 360 sales. It absolutely proves that they will move the hardware in Japan. For how long is the question.

 

[jimbo]

Have hardware numbers come out yet?

Well we got some rounded up numbers that may or not be official.

http://blog.livedoor.jp/neoplay/archives/50783603.html

HARDWARE
PS3:43000
PSP:30000
Wii:100000
XBOX360:38000
NDSL:250000


But yeah what's the deal? Are these confirmed? If not, where are the numbers? Let's talk some hardware.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

But it should easily do 1 mil world-wide. I don't expect it to do 1 mil in any one region but come on....the game is on track for 200k in Japan on a user base that's barely past that. There are more JRPG fans that currently own a 360 in the US and Europe than there are 360 owners in Japan.

The way I see it is there are currently 6-7 million hardcore gamers that own the 360, and if they're anything like me and the rest of the guys on GAF then they're just STARVING for something like BD. After all, that's why I spent money for Enchanted Arms.

Besides, I am proof and my word is final. None of the games I have ever bought on day one has gone to sell less than 500k. Therefore.....I plan on buying BD day one...+500k sales guaranteed

Honestly, in my opinion, everybody who wanted Blue Dragon has gotten it in Japan. I don't see it doing any better than 150k lifetime there. I could be surprised, but I doubt it. I fully expect BD to drop down to around 25th place next week. (It would be higher, but the DS is scoring titles at a higher ratio and is raising the unit curve). Again, all opinion.

That said, I don't see the US and Europe picking the 800k unit slack. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

 

[jimbo]

I expected that who has bought the X360 would have bought it for Blue Dragon. In otehr words, I expected an higher attach rate. Yeah, with "more then that" I wanna say something around 50k.
Of course I think that next week, the sales will go down. Thsi is the classic game that has no legs.

Oh I see. Honestly I believe that anyone that already owned a 360 in Japan bought it for everything EXCEPT games like BD because I doubt anyone ever thought the 360 would ever even get a game like this and be as high of quality. But that's just my opinion.

But I agree. Unless the game just catches on by word of mouth...it will be lucky to chart in the top 20 next week. Hardware will get halved.

 

[sphinx]

We're over eight hundred and sixty posts into the thread. Do you really think you got in before any of that, several times over? :lol

I mean, when the actual and factual HW numbers appear, just watch and learn from the pros how to spin the news .

for every new bit of info, there's a whole new world of possibilities for info spining.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I mean, when the actual and factual HW numbers appear, just watch and learn from the pros how to spin the news .

for every new bit of info, there's a whole new world of possibilities for info spining.

GAF has been doing this for a while though. We've had preemtive spinning for every scenario!

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Well we got some rounded up numbers that may or not be official.

http://blog.livedoor.jp/neoplay/archives/50783603.html

HARDWARE
PS3:43000
PSP:30000
Wii:100000
XBOX360:38000
NDSL:250000


But yeah what's the deal? Are these confirmed? If not, where are the numbers? Let's talk some hardware.

These are not confirmed, but I think that are good approximations. Another site says that the Wii sold 110.000.

 

[jimbo]

Honestly, in my opinion, everybody who wanted Blue Dragon has gotten it in Japan. I don't see it doing any better than 150k lifetime there. I could be surprised, but I doubt it. I fully expect BD to drop down to around 25th place next week. (It would be higher, but the DS is scoring titles at a higher ratio and is raising the unit curve). Again, all opinion.

That said, I don't see the US and Europe picking the 800k unit slack. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

I've seen this argument a lot, and I'm not sure how valid it is. Once again GAF fails to realize most people don't keep up with games like we do here. Most people don't even know the release dates for games until after they've stumbled on them on store shelves. This has been said about GOW, it's been said about how all Halo fans already bought a 360, etc, etc. And I believe they are wrong. There are still plenty of Halo fans that do not own a 360 and probably won't until Halo 3 comes out. GOW I believe WILL continue to sell this month and next month and so on and so on. And most people don't buy videogame consoles in advance for a game that comes out one year from now. They buy them when the game creates the buzz, most of the time at launch and after the TV advertising hits.

After all if that was the case, what would even be the point of TV and really, all other forms of advertisement? sarcasm/ Everyone that wanted the game should have already pre-ordered months ago, right? Do companies do that just so they can remind us all that our pre-order is ready to be picked up? /sarcasm

 

[kisakiproject]

If the 38,000 # for 360 is true holy ****ing crap indeed. Thats like 9.5 times what it sold last week. Thats serious momentum. 360 is more than likely going to become a niche machine in Japan the way wonderswan or something like that.
BUt thats means 8,000 non BD bundles. So I would expect some sales of atleast 15,000 for each week for the next 3 weeks due to BD legs and other titles.

This thread might hit 1,500.

 

[GhaleonEB]

If the 38,000 # for 360 is true holy ****ing crap indeed. Thats like 9.5 times what it sold last week. Thats serious momentum. 360 is more than likely going to become a niche machine in Japan the way wonderswan or something like that.

If it can sustain 20k+ for the two weeks after, then I think it's possible. Selling 10k/week for a few years adds up to a nice niche. Still too early to call, though.

 

[charlequin]

Honestly, in my opinion, everybody who wanted Blue Dragon has gotten it in Japan.

There is no conceivable way this is true. If you imagine a theoretical bundle where the 360 (instead of the game) is what's included "free," do you really think this bundle would sell essentially zero copies after this week?

I could believe that there isn't anyone else who's willing to pay the equivalent of ~$270 USD to play it, or that there isn't any current Japanese X360 owner who still wants it (though the last one seems unlikely to me), but I can't imagine that if you remove the hardware issue from the situation that the game wouldn't be a 400-500k seller at bare minimum. That implies to me that any actual boost the 360 sees from here on out will carry with it some people from the potential Blue Dragon market (and it's an obvious title to pick up with the system if you happen to buy it.)

I can see the potential issue where all 150k copies of Blue Dragon wind up in pristine condition on the used game shelf a week from now and therefore more than 300k people would need to want to play the game before we see any more new copies sell, but even so.

I've seen this argument a lot, and I'm not sure how valid it is.

As I acknowledge above, there's kind of a specific issue with jRPGs (long, linear games) in Japan where enough people buy on release date, power-play through over the next week or two, then dump their copies back onto the used game market. Because Japanese used games aren't, like, caked in offal like US ones, people buy them preferentially once they're available. Thus, for games that people don't maintain ownership of like RPGs, sales are really front-loaded.

Someone please correct me if my understanding of this situation is incorrect.

 

[KeithFranklin]

a shitload of JRPGs that wont sell very well in Japan due to the lack of 360 userbase. Hey the Dreamcast had literally hundreds of RPGs, SRPGs, and dating sims, and look where that got it.

JRPGs do not guarentee console success in Japan. Franchise hits and "non-game" phenomenoms do.

I have never believed that any one particular title sells consoles other than a quick blip. Yet what does happen is a title does peak interest and a consumer will then look at the lineup available and the person will then decide to purchase the console or not. So Blue Dragon pushed some people over the edge. For some of the people that enjoy a JRPG that didnt get pushed over the edge with BD next time when say Lost Odyssey (or Trusty Bell) comes out the now combination of BD and Lost Odyssey (or other) pushes more of them over the edge. So growth will be like a river at the beginning one end it is just a little trickle and at the other end it is a raging river because of the tributaries.

Honestly, in my opinion, everybody who wanted Blue Dragon has gotten it in Japan.

Ya know when the big blockbuster movie comes out everyone doesnt run out and see it the first weekend. Some people want to avoid the crowds. I love crowds and that excitement. My wife doesnt. So it is a mix of what we see first weekend and what we see after a month. Some people will need to have BD the moment it arrives and some will want to wait a bit.

Some films are more front loaded at launch and others have better legs. This pertains to the Wii as well. A post a page or two back show just how much that Nintendo consoles are truly a holiday gift console. Couple that with Nintendo fans which our like Superhero movie fans. Anyone who didnt expect that the Wii would fly out the door is ignoring history or is a liar. Couple a Nintendo launch with Holiday timeframe and Wii was 100% expected to fly out the door. Just as the stats show that Nintendo consoles take the biggest hit post holidays compared to other consoles historically expect the same thing over the next couple of months.

 

[Error]

why is this thread so big? what happened?

 

[jimbo]

I can see the potential issue where all 150k copies of Blue Dragon wind up in pristine condition on the used game shelf a week from now and therefore more than 300k people would need to want to play the game before we see any more new copies sell, but even so.



As I acknowledge above, there's kind of a specific issue with jRPGs (long, linear games) in Japan where enough people buy on release date, power-play through over the next week or two, then dump their copies back onto the used game market. Because Japanese used games aren't, like, caked in offal like US ones, people buy them preferentially once they're available. Thus, for games that people don't maintain ownership of like RPGs, sales are really front-loaded.

Someone please correct me if my understanding of this situation is incorrect.

Oh for Christ's sake, next week's sales are only one week away. Let's just wait and see what happens.

 

[Oblivion]

why is this thread so big? what happened?

We're mourning the death of console Zeldas.

 

[C4Lukins]

why is this thread so big? what happened?

Each page a new person comes in talking complete nonsense, and the rest of GAF proceeds to deprogram them over the course of the day. The next day it happens again.

 

[Yamauchi]

A Dreamcast - 360 comparison is totally invalid. At the same point in its lifetime, the Dreamcast had an install base 5x that of the current 360 userbase in Japan.

 

[charlequin]

Oh for Christ's sake, next week's sales are only one week away. Let's just wait and see what happens.

I wasn't even arguing what will happen next week (I even included a caveat about why sales might die out), just arguing what I thought was an inherently inaccurate assumption about the potential market for the game itself. What crawled up your ass and died?

 

[Branduil]

I think the best case scenario for the 360 in Japan is selling about as well as the GC did there. Which is still not great.

 

[Odysseus]

I think the best case scenario for the 360 in Japan is selling about as well as the GC did there. Which is still not great.

That's not the best case scenario, that's the best case scenario if it came with unicorns.

Best case scenario is they get to a million.

 

[mckmas8808]

So we are all talking about nothing right?

 

[Odysseus]

So we are all talking about nothing right?

We're talking about now now. What's happening now is happening now.

 

[Core407]

Go Yakuza 2! DC2 in '09 - you heard it here first, folks!

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

why is this thread so big? what happened?

1) Xbox360 sold ~38.000 this week. Blue Dragon sold ca. 80.000.
2) Twilight Princess seems to be in trouble, because it sold only 35.000. But the Wii sold ca. 100.000, so the attach rate is constant to 35-40%. The long term is what matters at this point.
3) Nintendo DS is starting to go up (250.000 approx. this week).
4) Sony will not have a great Christmas. PS3 is impossible to find. PSP isn't selling well for pre-Christmas period (if compared to last year).

 

[Branduil]

why is this thread so big? what happened?

Because the 360 is rising to heaven in Japan.

 

[AniHawk]

bullshit bullshit bullshit

Just stop.

 

[monkeyrun]

Because the 360 is rising to heaven in Japan.

sounds more like rising from hell.

 

[GhaleonEB]

That's not the best case scenario, that's the best case scenario if it came with unicorns.

Best case scenario is they get to a million.

A million is not-best case. 38,000 in one week proves that. But really, any talk about 360 potential is premature until the second week and we see if it's a blip, or it there's a longer boost. If next week is >20k, the 360 may have sprouted some legs. Not a horn, though.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Just stop.

I guess next time I should just insult some people, post in all caps rather, and show no thought nor pay any attention to history.

 

[AniHawk]

I guess next time I should insult some people throw out some insults and post in all caps rather than post something with some thoughts.

Now you're getting the hang of it.

 

[Lapsed]

The Wii's most glaring problem is the same as with all previous Nintendo consoles with the exception of SNES and NES: GAMES. Games that are NOT Mario, Zelda or Pokemon. Games that have been popular, have become popular and will become popular on anything OTHER THAN a post-N64 Nintendo console.

Much of Nintendo's Research and Development budget for the Wii was spent on expanding the software development studios in Japan and America. Much of the development of the DS and Wii were spent in making the systems easy to develop for. The DS initially stood for 'developer system'.

In the GameInformer (Red Steel first "screenshots") issue with the interview with George Harrison, Harrison pointed out that Nintendo had been studying the PS2 and plans to go a massive software route for 2007.

Sure, Nintendo execs can say stuff but where is the proof? Well, DS software keeps getting pumped out. Virtual Console keeps getting generous amounts of content. Wii's software launch was light years ahead of N64 and Gamecube.

It is probable that Wii will have the largest software library this generation.

 

[AniHawk]

Much of Nintendo's Research and Development budget for the Wii was spent on expanding the software development studios in Japan and America. Much of the development of the DS and Wii were spent in making the systems easy to develop for. The DS initially stood for 'developer system'.

In the GameInformer (Red Steel first "screenshots") issue with the interview with George Harrison, Harrison pointed out that Nintendo had been studying the PS2 and plans to go a massive software route for 2007.

Sure, Nintendo execs can say stuff but where is the proof? Well, DS software keeps getting pumped out. Virtual Console keeps getting generous amounts of content. Wii's software launch was light years ahead of N64 and Gamecube.

It is probable that Wii will have the largest software library this generation.

Thank you for correctly using the term, "light years."