-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
Media Create Sales: 04 - 10 Dec (HOLY ****ING CRAP edition)
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
Karma Kramer
Banned
soundwave05 said:The 360 is still only tracking marignally better than the XBox 1 did in North America. And it's a relative failure in Europe and Japan to date.
But lets overlook that and be super critical about the Wii ... a system that's probably the hottest item on the market right now bar none.
The 360 has been on market for a full year and hasn't impressed hardware sales-wise ... anywhere. The only reason they weren't no.3 in November NPD is because Nintendo and Sony were supply limited (on top of the fact that MS had the entire month).
This is supposed to be the new PS2? Really? The PS2 had no problem destroying the GC + XBox in Nov. 2001 ... the 360 was more like a boxer that got bailed out by the bell in comparsion. The main thing you'll hear about the 360 on these boards is a wash of excuses that "it's pretty good for a $400 console" ... nevermind the fact that there's a perfectly good $299.99 SKU availible (what, people with PS2s didn't buy memory cards?) and it has no direct competetion aside from the extremely supply restricted Sony.
Let me ask you a question...
Do you think the real PS2 would have become the "PS2" if it was priced at $400?
soundwave05 said:The 360 is still only tracking marignally better than the XBox 1 did in North America. And it's a relative failure in Europe and Japan to date.
But lets overlook that and be super critical about the Wii ... a system that's probably the hottest item on the market right now bar none.
The 360 has been on market for a full year and hasn't impressed hardware sales-wise ... anywhere. The only reason they weren't no.3 in November NPD is because Nintendo and Sony were supply limited (on top of the fact that MS had the entire month).
This is supposed to be the new PS2? Really? The PS2 had no problem destroying the GC + XBox in Nov. 2001 ... the 360 was more like a boxer that got bailed out by the bell in comparsion. The main thing you'll hear about the 360 on these boards is a wash of excuses that "it's pretty good for a $400 console" ... nevermind the fact that there's a perfectly good $299.99 SKU availible (what, people with PS2s didn't buy memory cards?) and it has no direct competetion aside from the extremely supply restricted Sony.
Good point here, the X360 really doesn't appear to be the new "PS2", atleast so far. And you're right, they totally got saved by the bell.
But this could be in turn b/c the PS2 got eaten up at launch and soon thereafter for its DVD capabilities and not launch software. The same can not be said for the X360.
soundwave05
Member
Odysseus said:Dude, you really need to remove some of the hyperbole. Hottest item on the market? Tone it down a notch. And this is coming from me, someone who has already started engraving Wii's tombstone.
Actually consumer reports have done surveys that peg the Wii as the hottest item this holiday season, tracking above even the iPod.
People are lining up just for re-shipments every time a new stock comes in. The only time I've ever seen that happen before was for Tickle Me Elmo ten years ago.
If it's not *the* hottest item, it's certainly way up there even the most bitter Nintendo critics will admit to this. You may want to downplay that, but then again, you've had your obvious agenda against the controller from day 1. I think it's you that's letting your personal preferences cloud what's actually happening on the market.
kisakiproject
Member
This thread is totally getting up to 1000 posts when hardware is released tommorow.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
How could it become the next PS2 without even having Halo 3 out yet? I'd say that's 360's biggest failure. That could move some systems. Sure, one might argue that the people that will buy that game ALREADY own a 360, but still.
Dalthien said:Yeah, that number is wrong. That story was retracted shortly after it was posted. The X360 is at 3.4 million in the US through November. In any case, it will be difficult for the Wii to overtake the X360 in the US in 2007, but I expect the Wii to fairly easily overtake the X360 worldwide next year. It will likely be within a million or so of the X360 in Europe by the end of this year, and it is already ahead of the X360 in Japan after 2 days on the market.
So you expect the Wii to sell 400k-500k systems more than the 360 EACH MONTH next year?:lol It better not drop below 500k a month in Japan then.
soundwave05 said:Actually consumer reports have done surveys that peg the Wii as the hottest item this holiday season.
If it's not *the* hottest item, it's certainly way up there even the most bitter Nintendo critics will admit to this. You may want to downplay that, but then again, you've had your obvious agenda against the controller from day 1. I think it's you that's letting your personal preferences cloud what's actually happening on the market.
January NPD, out in early February. Come on... put a month-long ban on the line. If Wii is ahead of 360 for that period, I'm out until the release of February NPD. 360 leads, you're gone. Do it.
Edit: This assumes Microsoft doesn't sell 1.5 million in December which would delete my account beforehand. Fat chance on that one, though. :lol
soundwave05 said:Actually consumer reports have done surveys that peg the Wii as the hottest item this holiday season.
If it's not *the* hottest item, it's certainly way up there even the most bitter Nintendo critics will admit to this. You may want to downplay that, but then again, you've had your obvious agenda against the controller from day 1. I think it's you that's letting your personal preferences cloud what's actually happening on the market.
It may be the hottest item on the market right now, but that is pretty much due to launch demand and the novelty factor.
We can't expect these kind of sales figures throughout 07.
Karma Kramer
Banned
Karma Kramer said:Let me ask you a question...
Do you think the real PS2 would have become the "PS2" if it was priced at $400?
No answer?
soundwave05
Member
smallsoft said:It may be the hottest item on the market right now, but that is pretty much due to launch demand and the novelty factor.
We can't expect these kind of sales figures throughout 07.
You can expect higher sales figures throughout 2007 actually. A price cut around May is also more than likely to happen.
Right now, Nintendo is extremely supply limited. "Novelty" factor is to each his own. People said the DS touchscreen was a novelty too ... a novelty that just happened to put on one of the most vicious ass-kickings this industry has seen. I almost feel bad for the PSP at this point.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jimbo said:So you expect the Wii to sell 400k-500k systems more than the 360 EACH MONTH next year?:lol It better not drop below 500k a month in Japan then.
What do you have for WW 360 LTD?
US = 3.4 mill
JPN = 0.18 mill
PAL = ??
===============
10 million?
You need to go back and read the classic threads we had at DS/PSP launch two years ago.smallsoft said:It may be the hottest item on the market right now, but that is pretty much due to launch demand and the novelty factor.
We can't expect these kind of sales figures throughout 07.
soundwave05 said:You can expect higher sales figures throughout 2007 actually. A price cut around May is also more than likely to happen.
Cummatively of course, but not on a per month basis.
Jonnyram said:You need to go back and read the classic threads we had at DS/PSP launch two years ago.
Two completely differnent markets, I am not going to infer success from the DS a la Nintendo's management.
soundwave05
Member
PantherLotus said:What do you have for WW 360 LTD?
US = 3.4 mill
JPN = 0.18 mill
PAL = ??
===============
10 million?
No kidding. I think Microsoft's "shipped" numbes are extremely generous. The PAL markets have not been that kind to the 360.
kisakiproject
Member
Jonnyram said:You need to go back and read the classic threads we had at DS/PSP launch two years ago.
Well everyone expect DS to lose then and PSP to win. Following what happened the opposite of whats expected should happen. PS3 wins...lol
Branduil said:It's like everyone has forgotten why the DS was successful and have fallen back on the same lame arguments.
Indeed everyone has. It's a cheap handheld that will shut the kids up for a while. Wii isn't a cheap handheld to shut the kids up for a while.
soundwave05
Member
Branduil said:It's like everyone has forgotten why the DS was successful and have fallen back on the same lame arguments.
No kidding. The other stupid thing about the "well Wii will do well in Japan, but nowhere else" ... if the Wii takes off in Japan, 3rd party support will follow and the overall software library will be more appealling to audiences everywhere.
If the GameCube won Japan ... lol, you honestly think that wouldn't have had pretty major consequences for the final library the system ended up with? For one that whole "no games to play!" excuse is the first thing that goes out the window.
Karma Kramer
Banned
SOUNDWAVE, let me ask you a question...
Do you think the real PS2 would have become the "PS2" if it was priced at $400?
-
"I feel like I am talking to a ****ing wall here."
Do you think the real PS2 would have become the "PS2" if it was priced at $400?
-
"I feel like I am talking to a ****ing wall here."
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
soundwave05 said:No kidding. I think Microsoft's "shipped" numbes are extremely generous. The PAL markets have not been that kind to the 360.
No seriously. What's that number for 360 WW? I keep hearing talk about this ethereal "10 million" but that would mean something like 6 million in PAL, doubling what it sold in its homeland.
Anybody got this?
I will give Nintendogs and Brain age their fair share of credit, but whats really driving sales in my opinion is all the 2d software being dumped on there from just about everyone in the industry (atleast in NA).
DS is the new old-school handheld just like the GBA was. We're seeing high profile publishers dump their old-school titles on the DS with low development cost and huge brand recognition = $$$$
DS is the new old-school handheld just like the GBA was. We're seeing high profile publishers dump their old-school titles on the DS with low development cost and huge brand recognition = $$$$
Branduil said:It's like everyone has forgotten why the DS was successful and have fallen back on the same lame arguments.
Yes.
People dismissing the DS-Wii comparisons don't realize that there's a Grand Unified (tm) strategy at work here.
soundwave05
Member
Karma Kramer said:SOUNDWAVE, let me ask you a question...
Do you think the real PS2 would have become the "PS2" if it was priced at $400?
-
"I feel like I am talking to a ****ing wall here."
Yes. The 360 also has an SKU at $299.99 which is fine for people (the majority of whom still have SDTV) and readily availible everywhere. All you need to buy is a memory card ... which didn't stop the PS2 from selling.
So where are the sales numbers? Why can't Microsoft sell anything to anyone but the same old tired Halo manchild audience?
Also the PS2 was closer to $400 in both Japan and Europe for a long time.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
hey guys don't waste your time doing the "If" game from the past. If Nintento won with the GC, if Sony failed with the PS2, blah blah...you're imagining something so impossible that it would change the entire context of the conversation.
So I see I'm not the only person skeptical about the Wii's performance as predicted by some (not that I'm saying it'll do bad, but where do people get these projections of Wii outselling the 360 by next summer at the latest?)
I agree with the person who said that right now it's going on novelty factor, availability with a super hyped game, and buzz. But look at the release schedule next year. It's bleak and barren place until the summer at the earliest (assuming from past experience that Nintendo will delay their big titles to the latter part of the year, just as Halo 3 will not come out in Q1 or Q2 of next year). To me, the Wii is already looking like the N64 and GC, and maybe even the Xbox 360 in Japan. It'll sell well in the holidays, but it'll drop significantly during the year and only spike when the new big Nintendo game comes out. 3rd party support in the west still seems weak.
I still think it'll do really well, but even if it does pass the 360, I don't see for years. But going by the entire gaming history of hardware sales, it's not gonna sell anywhere near enough during Feb - October to do much catchup against a system that will probably sell on the same level.
But who knows, maybe it will be the new iPod.
I agree with the person who said that right now it's going on novelty factor, availability with a super hyped game, and buzz. But look at the release schedule next year. It's bleak and barren place until the summer at the earliest (assuming from past experience that Nintendo will delay their big titles to the latter part of the year, just as Halo 3 will not come out in Q1 or Q2 of next year). To me, the Wii is already looking like the N64 and GC, and maybe even the Xbox 360 in Japan. It'll sell well in the holidays, but it'll drop significantly during the year and only spike when the new big Nintendo game comes out. 3rd party support in the west still seems weak.
I still think it'll do really well, but even if it does pass the 360, I don't see for years. But going by the entire gaming history of hardware sales, it's not gonna sell anywhere near enough during Feb - October to do much catchup against a system that will probably sell on the same level.
But who knows, maybe it will be the new iPod.
Odysseus said:Indeed everyone has. It's a cheap handheld that will shut the kids up for a while. Wii isn't a cheap handheld to shut the kids up for a while.
Don't you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
PantherLotus said:No seriously. What's that number for 360 WW? I keep hearing talk about this ethereal "10 million" but that would mean something like 6 million in PAL, doubling what it sold in its homeland.
Anybody got this?
They had shipped ~6 million WW at the end of September, while it would be hard to say more than 4.5 million of those were actually in people's homes. How they plan to get to 10 million by the end of the year is anybody's guess. Yes, Q4 is always very strong, but 4 million is still a tall order. Still, there is a difference between shipped and sold so it is conceivable they'll get every last one of those on the market by the end of the year just so they can say "see? told you so!" and then not ship another until April.
By the end of the year, it will be about:soundwave05 said:No kidding. I think Microsoft's "shipped" numbes are extremely generous. The PAL markets have not been that kind to the 360.
NA: 5 mill
JPN = 0.25 mill
PAL = 3 mill
===============
8.25m sold, 10m shipped
Give or take a half million in the PAL. That's not too much of a padding.
good sales for wii sports, but it's a shame about zelda, though the franchise has been in decline for a while so it's not totally unexpected. warioware looks to be struggling, which is a surprise.
relatively speaking, blue dragon's sales are decent but imo, realistically, it's not going to help 360. the gaming market in japan is changing at such a dramatic rate, appealing to the hardcore this gen is not going to do much for any developer other than give them a struggle to make a profit.
very good yakuza 2 sales. tales of destiny really bombed in its second week even more than i expected.
relatively speaking, blue dragon's sales are decent but imo, realistically, it's not going to help 360. the gaming market in japan is changing at such a dramatic rate, appealing to the hardcore this gen is not going to do much for any developer other than give them a struggle to make a profit.
very good yakuza 2 sales. tales of destiny really bombed in its second week even more than i expected.
soundwave05 said:No kidding. The other stupid thing about the "well Wii will do well in Japan, but nowhere else" ... if the Wii takes off in Japan, 3rd party support will follow and the overall software library will be more appealling to audiences everywhere.
If the GameCube won Japan ... lol, you honestly think that wouldn't have had pretty major consequences for the final library the system ended up with? For one that whole "no games to play!" excuse is the first thing that goes out the window.
Japanese 3rd party support may follow, but you can bet the Western Devs aren't going to follow suit simply because the Wii has a decent user base in Japan. Especially considering how crappy western dev'd titles sell over there.
Branduil said:Don't you ever get tired of being wrong all the time?
Hey, I'll have no problem admitting to being wrong if Wii actually proves me wrong over the course of the next few months.
soundwave05 said:Actually consumer reports have done surveys that peg the Wii as the hottest item this holiday season, tracking above even the iPod.
People are lining up just for re-shipments every time a new stock comes in. The only time I've ever seen that happen before was for Tickle Me Elmo ten years ago.
If it's not *the* hottest item, it's certainly way up there even the most bitter Nintendo critics will admit to this. You may want to downplay that, but then again, you've had your obvious agenda against the controller from day 1. I think it's you that's letting your personal preferences cloud what's actually happening on the market.
Didin't the 360 get similar treatments early on for reshipments?
I'm guessing that you are using Microsoft's 10M number in your calculations, which I surely am not. By the end of this year, I expect X360 to be about 3 million ahead of the Wii in the US. By the end of 2007, I expect the Wii to be at least even at the worst with the X360 in Europe (which won't be difficult considering how poorly the X360 has performed outside of the UK), and the difference in Japan will offset whatever lead the X360 still holds over the Wii in the US at the end of 2007.jimbo said:So you expect the Wii to sell 400k-500k systems more than the 360 EACH MONTH next year?:lol It better not drop below 500k a month in Japan then.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
GhaleonEB said:By the end of the year, it will be about:
NA: 5 mill
JPN = 0.25 mill
PAL = 3 mill
===============
8.25m sold, 10m shipped
Give or take a half million in the PAL. That's not too much of a padding.
SO maybe 9 million (very generous) world wide?
And we want to assume that it does a minimum of 200k-400k ww every month next year?
Odysseus said:Hey, I'll have no problem admitting to being wrong if Wii actually proves me wrong over the course of the next few months.
You really think the DS is only selling to kids?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Dalthien said:I'm guessing that you are using Microsoft's 10M number in your calculations, which I surely am not. By the end of this year, I expect X360 to be about 3 million ahead of the Wii in the US. By the end of 2007, I expect the Wii to be at least even at the worst with the X360 in Europe (which won't be difficult considering how poorly the X360 has performed outside of the UK), and the difference in Japan will offset whatever lead the X360 still holds over the Wii at the end of 2007.
It's not even 3 million ahead NOW!
*ok just barely*
soundwave05
Member
smallsoft said:Japanese 3rd party support may follow, but you can bet the Western Devs aren't going to follow suit simply because the Wii has a decent user base in Japan. Especially considering how crappy western dev'd titles sell over there.
Ah .... if only things were so disconnected like that. More content = better sales worldwide = Western pubs take notice too.
It's not so easy to compete against Nintendo when they have even above average 3rd party support.
Karma Kramer
Banned
soundwave05 said:Yes. The 360 also has an SKU at $299.99 which is fine for people (the majority of whom still have SDTV) and readily availible everywhere. All you need to buy is a memory card ... which didn't stop the PS2 from selling.
So where are the sales numbers?
Also the PS2 was closer to $400 in both Japan and Europe for a long time.
Shane logic ftl.
In Europe the 360 is priced higher than $400... so thats not really an argument. You seem like you are completely ignoring the price.
The ratio of cores compared to premiums is extremely low also.
I'm not making assumptions about next year. honestly, theres so many variables that hard to call right now. Just pointing out that the likely gap between that 10m shipped and the sold-through figure really isn't unreasonable.PantherLotus said:SO maybe 9 million (very generous) world wide?
And we want to assume that it does a minimum of 200k-400k ww every month next year?
Branduil said:You really think the DS is only selling to kids?
I think the core market for Nintendo handhelds has not changed. Yes, I think children still make up the vast majority of that market. I recognize the DS is doing much better in Japan than the GBA and that market's dynamics may very well be different than this one, but in the US the DS is on the same track as before and I would say is selling to the same people (or audience) as before.
The Wii will probably sell what, 500k tops in December? The 360 should hit one million, probably a bit more.PantherLotus said:It's not even 3 million ahead NOW!
*ok just barely*
Odysseus said:Indeed everyone has. It's a cheap handheld that will shut the kids up for a while.
Too bad that's not why it's successful.
Odysseus said:I think the core market for Nintendo handhelds has not changed. Yes, I think children still make up the vast majority of that market. I recognize the DS is doing much better in Japan than the GBA and that market's dynamics may very well be different than this one, but in the US the DS is on the same track as before and I would say is selling to the same people (or audience) as before.
What about Europe?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
GhaleonEB said:The Wii will probably sell what, 500k tops in December? The 360 should hit one million, probably a bit more.
I'm guessing 1 million in the US, 425k+ in Japan, and 350k+ in PAL.
Odysseus said:They had shipped ~6 million WW at the end of September, while it would be hard to say more than 4.5 million of those were actually in people's homes. How they plan to get to 10 million by the end of the year is anybody's guess. Yes, Q4 is always very strong, but 4 million is still a tall order. Still, there is a difference between shipped and sold so it is conceivable they'll get every last one of those on the market by the end of the year just so they can say "see? told you so!" and then not ship another until April.
I don't see MS doing that. They're numbers are based on sold to retailers, aka shipped. No retailer is gonna hole up with millions of unsold consoles just because MS wants an ego-boost. It's gonna ship 10 million because retailers think they can sell most of the stock. Doesn't mean they will, but for the time being it's based on what retailers think they can sell.
You're right, it's actually a little less than 3 million through November. But it's hard to know how many Wiis Nintendo will get to the market in December. I could see both the X360 and Wii putting up similar numbers in December if Nintendo can only get about a million units out in December.PantherLotus said:It's not even 3 million ahead NOW!
*ok just barely*