Media Create Sales: 07/28 - 08/03
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Wow, correct me if I'm wrong, but in one week FE DS has almost outsold both the Wii and GC versions, right?
Jonnyram said:
24k 360's? Holy shit if true. My spike estimate was waaaay off.
PantherLotus said:One week, just like last time (look at last october/november):
Only if there are still shortages. The 360 wasn't trending up while the PS3 down consistently last year prior to the AC release, and the GAP wasn't within 4k units either like it is now. The PS3 had had a 15k GAP(18k vs 3k) over the 360 last year prior to its release and the 360 only beat it by a couple of hundred units for that week. Not the case this time.
With the spike being that huge, and the PS3 trending down....it actually has a damn good chance of doing it again in next week's numbers(or this week to be correct). If the trend sustained the streams would have crossed this week or next week all on their own, without TOV. And there's no telling where they would have settled. If the 360 outsells it again next week, it actually has a shot of outselling it for the whole month.
If it can do that leading up to Infinite Undiscovery....you may see some serious panicking in these threads over the next month.
The Innocent X
Banned
Jokeropia said:
Do we really believe there were only 14K non bundled 360's in the whole of japan in stock before this week? Seems very low. I could imagine local shortages, but not overall.
Paracelsus
Member
Minsc said:
I guess stores, considering the past, are very careful in restocking consoles, to not find themselves overstocked in case the sales were front-loaded.
Still, it's Tales. I would have risked, at least a little.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
JoshuaJSlone said:
I can do this. Thanks for the idea.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Ultimately, Vesperia will sell less and therefor make less profit than Symphonia 2 though. I bet their happy but look at the message that sends.
gregor7777
Banned
Doubledex said:
Well, apparently 24,000.
oldie-newbie
Member
schuelma said:
No. Here are the numbers from Media Create:
July 30-August 05 2007: 61 498
August 06-12 2007: 65 120
August 13-19 2007: 73 938
August 20-26 2007: 46 283
August 27-September 02 2007: 39 371
September 03-09 2007: 29 088
September 10-16 2007: 26 181
September 17-23 2007: 24 992
September 24-30 2007: 24 143
October 01-07 2007: 20 704
October 08-14 2007: 20 575
October 15-21 2007: 24 932
and after that, Wii sales have climbed...
Paracelsus
Member
gregor7777 said:
IMO he means the number of shortages. Is this the second one?
No. More like "say farewell to HD Tales of".
Beside that, your statement is indeed correct.
gregor7777
Banned
Paracelsus said:
I didn't read it that way at all. Still don't. /shrug
I wonder what Microsoft's estimates for sales were.
I'm pretty sure gregor read it right.Paracelsus said:
Anyway, I think this is the first time 360's sold out, no? It's the second time it'll beat PS3 but last time I don't remember reading that it was sold out, it just got a boost from budget price Platinum titles.
gregor7777
Banned
jimbo said:
Well, he said shortages.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jimbo said:
1. no guesstimates.
2. the "streams crossed" last year by less than 500 units.
3. are you suggesting that the 360 will be above the PS3 for longer than a week? more than two weeks? really?
4. and?
This year, I expect the difference to be something like (360 vs PS3) = 23k vs 11k for this week, the following week to be 8k vs 10k, followed by 6k to 9k. Expecting much more is hopeful but not really grounded in reality. Regardless, these are rather arbitrary demarcations of success, considering the 360 has less than 7% of this-gen marketshare and only 21% of HD console marketshare.
Read: shrug. One week, two weeks, five weeks. All meaningless. Let's talk when we get a significant amount of time ahead of its closest competitor, like the PSP has done this year against the DS.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Kafel said:
How would a Wii-exclusive help the PS3?
If you're referring to that post from that Capcom guy on those Sony boards then you've not got much ground, considering that he was almost certainly talking about a new PSP Monster Hunter game which would be silly to think is not already in the works.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Btw, Jimbo. I noticed that you start appearing in MC threads making predictions of future 360 glory in Japan every time it sells more than 6k a couple weeks in a row. I'd like to see you in here every week, especially with your new-found ability to make charts. We LOVE charts!
If you stick around, even when your console of choice returns to typical 2k-3k weeks, you could see why some of your predictions (both last time and this) seem both arbitrary and nonsensical.
If you stick around, even when your console of choice returns to typical 2k-3k weeks, you could see why some of your predictions (both last time and this) seem both arbitrary and nonsensical.
PantherLotus said:
1. no guesstimates.
2. the "streams crossed" last year by less than 500 units.
3. are you suggesting that the 360 will be above the PS3 for longer than a week? more than two weeks? really?
4. and?
This year, I expect the difference to be something like (360 vs PS3) = 23k vs 11k for this week, the following week to be 8k vs 10k, followed by 6k to 9k. Expecting much more is hopeful but not really grounded in reality. Regardless, these are rather arbitrary demarcations of success, considering the 360 has less than 7% of this-gen marketshare and only 21% of HD console marketshare.
Read: shrug. One week, two weeks, five weeks. All meaningless. Let's talk when we get a significant amount of time ahead of its closest competitor, like the PSP has done this year against the DS.
Yeah I am actually. 1-2 weeks after. It's possible longer, but I wouldn't bet money on it.
PantherLotus said:
I am in-between jobs at the moment, which is why I am back on here, otherwise, I probably wouldn't be doing this. I doubt I'll be here again regularly like I used to. I also doubt it will go back to 2k this year, with its fall line-up.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Shaheed79 said:
There is absolutely no evidence that supports the idea that the Tales fanbase has migrated to the PS3, or that they would be willing to fork out additional money (moreso than the price of a 360) in order to buy a PS3 for it.
So stop. We really don't know if it would have sold better on the PS3.
Die Squirrel Die
Member
Shaheed79 said:
Where does Vesperia stand in regards to the whole timed/full exclusive, with the 360 JRPGs.
Last Remnant - Timed
Infinite Undiscovery - Full
ToV - ?
SO4 - ?
Anyone who follows these things, care to fill me in.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
jimbo said:
Of course.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Die Squirrel Die said:
SO4 and ToV are unknown at this point, so as of right now they are exclusive.
If I were to venture a guess I would predict that SO4 hits the PS3, but ToV stays only on the 360.
With a userbase that is a fraction of the Wii. I think Namco got what they expected for Vesperia.John Harker said:
If it had come out on the PS3 before the Wii and 360 versions, that might have been plausible. At this point, it seems both consoles have established their Tales fanbase quite well... a future PS3 release would most likely do about the same if not less.Shaheed79 said:
Everything with ToV and SO4 is pure speculation at the moment. At this point, their only platform is 360.Die Squirrel Die said:
The other way around is much more likely.jeremy1456 said:
Paracelsus
Member
jeremy1456 said:
But there are simply more PS3 users, so the chance for it to perform better would have been fairly higher.
Buy ----> play ----> sell the shit back. It's working this way, right?
We don't? It's a fact, instead. The exact numbers will be unknown, since I even doubt a porting at this point, but it sure as hell would have done better than this. Assuming 100-150k (180k?) is all a main Tales can do is simply nonsense.
Funny (?) thing is that we'll never have the confirmation, since PS3 hasn't had a shot to prove that.
Assumption (looking at hints Namco left behind) is that there might be a Japanese port, but I think MS will never allow the game to make its way out of Japan.
SO4 the way things are now it's full exclusive.
Well, here are some major online retailers and their 360s if anyone interested.
FYI They all have been in this "out of stock" like almost for a week.
* Amazon
amazon.jp - sold out cept few reseller scams. 在庫切れ=out of stock
http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/15762551/
* Tokyo based electric franchise
Biccamera - 完売しました = sold out
http://www.biccamera.com/bicbic/jsp/w/catalog/list.jsp?DISP_CATEGORY_ID=571016
Yodobashi - 販売休止中 = not available
http://www.yodobashi.com/enjoy/more/productslist/cat_219_8208952/45517407.html
Sofmap - 限定数終了 = out of stock
http://www.sofmap.com/product_list/exec/_/gid=GF02010000
* Osaka based electric franchise
Joshin - 完売いたしました!! = sold out
http://joshinweb.jp/game/5590.html
* Game / used game franchise
Momotarou - 在庫切れ = out of stock except 5 elites and some used.
http://tinyurl.com/59x3j2 (shortened URL)
Ubooks - 品切れ = sold out
http://tinyurl.com/58n2jd (shortened URL)
*Distributor
Hapinet - 在庫がありません=out of stock
BNG's subsidiary, main distributor of 360 in Japan.
People said Hapinet got a few restock yesterday, but insta-killed.
http://www.happinetonline.com/NASAp...Class=2&DISPCATEGORY=00000110031001&SHOP_ID=1
FYI They all have been in this "out of stock" like almost for a week.
* Amazon
amazon.jp - sold out cept few reseller scams. 在庫切れ=out of stock
http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/15762551/
* Tokyo based electric franchise
Biccamera - 完売しました = sold out
http://www.biccamera.com/bicbic/jsp/w/catalog/list.jsp?DISP_CATEGORY_ID=571016
Yodobashi - 販売休止中 = not available
http://www.yodobashi.com/enjoy/more/productslist/cat_219_8208952/45517407.html
Sofmap - 限定数終了 = out of stock
http://www.sofmap.com/product_list/exec/_/gid=GF02010000
* Osaka based electric franchise
Joshin - 完売いたしました!! = sold out
http://joshinweb.jp/game/5590.html
* Game / used game franchise
Momotarou - 在庫切れ = out of stock except 5 elites and some used.
http://tinyurl.com/59x3j2 (shortened URL)
Ubooks - 品切れ = sold out
http://tinyurl.com/58n2jd (shortened URL)
*Distributor
Hapinet - 在庫がありません=out of stock
BNG's subsidiary, main distributor of 360 in Japan.
People said Hapinet got a few restock yesterday, but insta-killed.
http://www.happinetonline.com/NASAp...Class=2&DISPCATEGORY=00000110031001&SHOP_ID=1
Assuming if they are planning a PS3 version, SO4 is exclusive until Tri-Ace's game engine gets up and running on the PS3 or the port is out-sourced to another developer. Which ever comes first.
No one knows what the deal is with Vesperia is.
It's good to see Fire Emblem selling well for a remake (er.. remake-remake). I hope they make more for the DS (since Intelligent System's 3D work is terrible).
No one knows what the deal is with Vesperia is.
It's good to see Fire Emblem selling well for a remake (er.. remake-remake). I hope they make more for the DS (since Intelligent System's 3D work is terrible).
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Paracelsus said:
It's the truth, we really don't. Do you know for sure that Tales is still as viable in Japan on HD platforms as it was on the GC and PS2? No, we don't - a spinoff on the Wii is simply not very telling.
Franchise popularity degrades over time. Case in point - Resident Evil. Everyone was predicting the GC remake, or even RE0 to sell by the bucketload because every past RE game (save for Code Veronica, a spinoff of sorts) sold at least a million (or pretty close to it). Not a single last gen installment of the RE series even came close to what it used to, in Japan.
My statement still stands.
Oh I completely agree and I hope the money-hats were worth not kicking off the first HD tales game on the correct HD console because now they run the risk of having gimped the fanbase between those consoles. However I still wouldn't dismiss a brand new HD tales game doing very well on PS3 enough to justify more installments. Having said that the Wii and DS will most likely be the main Tales systems this gen.icecream said:
Oh and jeremy, you will never have any bearing on what I choose and not choose to type so you should probably stick to worrying about dictating your own posts. Ok there buddy?
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Shaheed79 said:
First off, I'm sorry if I offended you. That was not my intent.
Second off, I think the game's English localization is a way to make up for the miniscule Japanese userbase of the 360. Will Vesperia experience Symphonia like success in the West, or will it follow the unfortunate route of Abyss? I hope it's the former, but I predict the latter.
Thirdly, the Tales fanbase has at least partially transitioned over to the 360. It's now the 'correct' console for HD tales games.
Paracelsus
Member
icecream said:
And that is still something that puzzles me, trust me.
They have the habit to shoot high in predictions. Why didn't this happen now?
It's not like they'll keep releasing more HD Tales anyway, so that base, for all it's worth, will go wasted.
So they chose to went HD as soon as possibile, risking their main release on a half-dead system, gimping what's left of the fanbase, to release ONE main HD Tales and relative port through a whole generation?
Wow, talking about genius.
Some user here explained that Symphonia's success might have been a coincidence dued to it being on Gamecube (charlequin?).
We're still talking of a console that in the States has a huge attach ratio, so everything is possible.
icecream said:
Yeah, it will probably meet Namco's expectations, but those were extremely low expectations for a game like Vesperia. I mean, they're looking at maybe 150K lifetime for a main line Tales game from Team Symphonia. Disregarding the relative success compared to the userbase, isn't that pretty terrible? I would imagine that the Wii main line entry would be able to double that at a bare minimum.