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GreenGlowingGoo said:Right, and I was pointing out that there are other factors. And just looking at "YAY PS2 sold a fuckton" isn't going to give you a clear picture. But all of it was circumstantial.
True that, the marked has changed before. As you said yourself, when the PSX came and outsold N64 and Saturn. So for it to happend again with Nintendo (which it did) wasnt completely unthinkable, but i dont think many thought that it would happend now.
GreenGlowingGoo said:But there is a difference between circumstantial and direct evidence. There's a reason one's not allowed in court.
Hm.. well.. ye, i guess you can say that today's situation with the PS3 is more hard evidence compared to back in 2004 predicting Wii's outcome. Im not going to argue about that. But for the total outcome in years to come, i still stay with what i said, things can change
GreenGlowingGoo said:I think 3 years into a generation is a bit far, but all right. I'd say middle of next year before it gets to the point of kidding yourself.
The first year that we have witnessed so far from the PS3 was overall a rather poor preformace. The reason why i said 1-2 years is because i think within those 1-2 years to come things might start to happend, more popular games, maybe its down to $299 or even less and so on. It might be to late, it might be the exact right time. These are just my guesses tho, i dont know what will happend of course.
GreenGlowingGoo said:Hmmm... not really
1: a statement based on blind faith in the face of blurry circumstantial evidence. Honestly there was plenty of circumstantial evidence for and against wii domination. But it was all before any direct evidence.
And I don't think people could have honestly predicted (pre-launch) how explosive the Wii's take off would be. And I'd place any such prediction in the blind crazy faith department, even though they turned out to be right so far.
2: a statement based on blind faith in the face of direct evidence.
I don't think the PS3 has no chance, but I think each day that chance gets smaller and smaller, and the faith gets blinder and blinder.
Indeed, you can say it was circumstantial evidence back in 2004. As said above here i guess you can say that today's situation with the PS3 is more hard evidence compared to back in 2004 predicting Wii's outcome. But PS3 still has some cards up it sleeve, GT5, MGS 4, FF13 and such, cant these be considered hard evidences? But of course, its impossible to know how much impact they will have on the total outcome, but maybe they can set some wheels in motion? Who knows.
GreenGlowingGoo said:But more importantly, wasn't the real issue that you were saying people who look at this trend and seeing PS3 NOT coming back were the same as people predicting pre-launch the Wii or the PS3 would dominate? Suddenly you twist it to people going against direct evidence.
Can you reformulate this question? I dont quite understand it :\ But ïf i think i know what you're asking, Parl stated what i ment:
Parl said:You're saying that as many thought Wii would do crap, but it didn't, the same apply to PS3 now - most think it will continue to do crap, but it could sell end up doing well, just like Wii ended up doing for the past year.
My main point was that no one can see the future. Many thought Wii would do crap, it didnt. Many thinks PS3 will do crap for the next years to come, but will it? As said, eventho there might be more hard evidence for PS3 not being able to do mega great in the next years to come compared to the predictions about Wii back in 2004 i still stand by what i said, so much can change in this marked so its not possible to say for sure, no matter how much hard evidence we have today.