Parl said:I'm no 360 fan, but I think 360 has a relatively bright future in Japan. Although, this year has been bigger than last year. Next year, 360 may rise again.
Yes I agree, it could sell 1 million by the next gen.
Parl said:I'm no 360 fan, but I think 360 has a relatively bright future in Japan. Although, this year has been bigger than last year. Next year, 360 may rise again.
GreenGlowingGoo said:He's talking about predictions on blind faith. The difference between the wii two years ago and the ps3 now is that we have a past and a present. You can use a past and a present to make predictions based off past trends, which has nothing to do with blind faith.
For example. You see Steve. And you want to predict how high Steve can jump, now before you ever see Steve jump you can say he will jump 10 feet into the air, and the other person says 6 feet. Both would be predictions on blind faith. now let's say you have watched Steve jump 183 times, and each jump has been between 6 to 7 feet high. Now, if you suddenly predicted that Steve will jump 10 feet, while somebody else predicts 6 feet, which of the two of you would be prediction on blind faith?
BishopLamont said:What he said. We know the Wii has upcoming software (Wii Fit) that will keep it's sales number at a decent pace of 20-30k. We know of none that will increase the PS3 beyond the usual 10-15k. EOJ bombed and that's something that would appeal to the casual.
donny2112 said:Things can make a dramatic change at generation transitions. During a generation is a much less likely occurrence, and I really can't think of one with the magnitude of what's being discussed for the PS3 in Japan.
wsippel said:I hope it'll do well in Europe. Point'n'click adventures used to be very successful in Europe back in the day. Especially Germans love their old-school adventures it seems, and Germany is Nintendo land. Too bad it's not exactly a huge or important market for console games, though...
Lobster said:Yes I agree, it could sell 1 million by the next gen.
ethelred said:Are you sure? I'm 95% positive that was in fact the best price version.
GEIMIN.NET said:133位 GBA『MOTHER1+2(ベスト版)』(任天堂
C&D = licensed IPtest_account said:According to this site it does. But nevertheless, a sequel didnt come. Capcom could have funded it Afaik Cadillacs & Dinosaurs (not counting that Sega CD release), Magic Sword (not exactly a beat em' up, but still) and Knights of the Round never got sequels.
jarrod said:C&D = licensed IP
KOTR actually *is* the sequel to Magic Sword too.
Xeke said:Maybe people just don't want the PS3. Is that impossible...?
By making the PlayStation the only console with Tomb Raider II, Sony Computer Entertainment was able to benefit by attracting new PlayStation owners leveraging Tomb Raider as a killer application and using Lara Croft as a marketing character alongside Sony's own first party characters
Kurosaki Ichigo said:Man, it would be so cool to see trackers give away numbers for weekly top50 during the Christmas period...
test_account said:long post.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:In other words, I just feel like predicting something...for Mario week:
100k > Wii >> X360 > PS3
As long as there is no absolute measure of when a game becomes successful (say, 300K to pick a number familiar to these threads), success will always be a relative thing, usually either to market size or cost of production. Was Tales on GCN less successful than Tales on PS2 (in Japan)? Yes. Was every game on PS2 less successful than it would've been on a theoretical console with a 40 million userbase? Probably. If "less successful than it could've been under other circumstances" means the same as "not a success", nothing will be viewed as a success.charlequin said:Nope. If a game did well compared to other GCN games, but still shitty overall, it did shitty overall. Tales of Symphonia did quite well for a third-party GameCube game, but still shitty for a Tales game.
Ace Combat 6 + Pricedrop on old SKUs + Elite push + Lots of budget re-releases + Week before 40GB PS3Verve said:i really don't know: is there anything important coming out for X360 in mario week or why should it cross streams with ps3 in your opinion?
Parl said:I'm rooting for 1 million by the end of next year. It's an unpopular theory, but I think that chances are high enough for me to not be surprised if it achieved that.. nor will I be surprised if it didn't.
BishopLamont said:They'll both be blind faith, you can't predict how much it'll sell until it's on the market. Just because it's predecessor was market leader, does not mean it will be market leader too. Look at SNES > N64 > GC.
BishopLamont said:Oh and I didn't say you said 12M in 4 years, that joke of a character guy did. I merely quoted you because you seem to be defending his blind faith.
ccbfan said:I think one thing thats really going to head into the 360's favor is that there's no dominate home console for 3rd parties in Japan.
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JoshuaJSlone said:As long as there is no absolute measure of when a game becomes successful (say, 300K to pick a number familiar to these threads), success will always be a relative thing, usually either to market size or cost of production. Was Tales on GCN less successful than Tales on PS2 (in Japan)? Yes. Was every game on PS2 less successful than it would've been on a theoretical console with a 40 million userbase? Probably. If "less successful than it could've been under other circumstances" means the same as "not a success", nothing will be viewed as a success.
Phoenix Down said:The 360 would have to sell better then the PS3 to be dominate in 3rd party sales... which will never happen in japan.. any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer... its almost like the 360 doesent exist there... if ever FF13 was released on 360 and PS3 in japan.. the 360 version would sale way below expectations...making a port pointless
also SE is looking at RPG sales on the 360.. there not that great...why should they even bother when they can just focus on 1 console where there fans are.. Most of the 360's fanbase Dont play RPG's there FPS fans... look at the attach rate
Phoenix Down said:also SE is looking at RPG sales on the 360.. there not that great...why should they even bother when they can just focus on 1 console where there fans are.. Most of the 360's fanbase Dont play RPG's there FPS fans... look at the attach rate
One is predicting a race's outcome before it starts. Another is predicting a race's outcome after it's begun and one competitor has lapped another multiple times.test_account said:True that, just look at PS2 -> PS3, from huge market leader to 3rd place (worldwide). But my point was that things years ahead cant be predicted, even with logical thinking or evidence on today's situation. Well.. it can be predicted of course, but the outcome is not certaint what will happend. Thats why i mentioned the things in my previous posts, about Nintendo consoles selling less for every generation etc. Looking at those facts and situation then, and judging by them, it was sorta unthinkable that they would be market leader today. Just like its unthinkable that PS3 will boost their hardware sale alot during the years to come and maybe regain the number 1 spot.
His point is, as long as third party success is negligible for both in the East, more decisions will be based upon what's going on in the larger western markets.Phoenix Down said:The 360 would have to sell better then the PS3 to be dominate in 3rd party sales... which will never happen in japan.. any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer... its almost like the 360 doesent exist there... if ever FF13 was released on 360 and PS3 in japan.. the 360 version would sale way below expectations...making a port pointless
Isn't that just the definition of the market leader? It seems pointless to say that all games on secondary or tertiary platforms are failures. If they were, they wouldn't bother releasing them once the market positions were clear.charlequin said:Well, we can wax poetic about what a success "really" is... but none of the major third party titles on Gamecube were successful. Resident Evil and Tales both fled the platform due to dramatically poor sales. If you were a publisher and you had a product on tap that wasn't a licensed anime fighting game, it did better on PS2 -- and you demonstrated this by moving the titles to PS2.
I don't think that's valid for any current systems, though, really. Success on PS2 doesn't imply success on PS3/PSP, and DS and Wii are so successful because they're not defined by the same things as their predecessors.This is really the crux of my point: there are a lot of series that did well in Japan on GBA, series which generally have carried over that momentum to DS (and helped other series in similar genres thanks to their penumbra effect.) Wii doesn't have the benefit of such series: there's nothing third-party you can point to and say "well, that'll do well on Wii because it did so well on GCN" (except, again, licensed anime games.)
JoshuaJSlone said:Isn't that just the definition of the market leader? It seems pointless to say that all games on secondary or tertiary platforms are failures. If they were, they wouldn't bother releasing them once the market positions were clear.
JoshuaJSlone said:One is predicting a race's outcome before it starts. Another is predicting a race's outcome after it's begun and one competitor has lapped another multiple times.
test_account said:What do you mean with past and a present? 2 years ago Nintendo had a past and a present. They've been releasing consoles since 1983. To use your example:
You see Nintendo. And you want to predict how many Wii consoles Nintendo can sell, now before you ever see Wii being launched you can say Nintendo will sell 10 million within the first year, and the other person says 3 million. Both would be predictions on blind faith. Now let's say you have watched Nintendo selling consoles since 1983, and each console have been selling less than the other, Gamecube selling slowest of them all and that PSX and PS2 has been dominating the market for the last 8 years (its 10 years, but we're 2 years back in time now). Now, if you suddenly predicted that Nintendo will sell 10 million, while somebody else predicts 3 million, which of the two of you would be prediction on blind faith?
test_account said:Also, i'm not the one who mentioned blind faith, that was BishopLamont. I'm not the one who mentioned 12 million PS3 sold within 4 years, that was also BishopLamont. So its mystery to me why he say i shouldnt talk about this when hes the one who brought it up and started talking about it hehe I guess he thought what i was saying was that PS3 will be number 1 in Japan within the years to come, but i've never said anything like that.
test_account said:All i was saying was that PS3 isnt Gamecube. I never said anything that i belived PS3 would be number 1 and sell 12 million consoles within 4 years. BishopLamont brought those 2 things up. PS3 and GC are 2 different consoles being released at 2 different times. You can pull lines between them and compare them up today's date, but to use todays situation and say how it will be in 4 years is impossible. Time changes, simple as that.
ethelred said:Monster Hunter 1 and 2 on PSP both way outperformed the PS2 games. Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, sold comparably to some of the top-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs -- it'll end its run second only to Final Fantasy Tactics, and frankly we all know the game wouldn't have sold like that on the DS. The PSP's Tales of the World game outsold all the GBA's Tales of the World games, and the PSP Tales ports outsold the GBA's Tales of Phantasia port.
Parl said:It would've been a different game on DS. Much worse graphics, and therefore a different game. A much lower budget game, which was also a remake, FF3 sold more, didn't it not?
The DS game would've sold less because of DS being really competitive when it comes to RPGs and worse graphics (so a notably different product anyway). Also, CC had a higher perceived quality than many spin-offs of FF have done, so even with everything it had going against it, I think the game was less successful than it could have been elsewhere.
ksamedi said:Wow you took the words out of my mouth. Crisis Core should have sold better.
JoshuaJSlone said:"Would have done" is always a guessing game, though. If they hadn't released Tales of Symphonia on PS2, we wouldn't have a comparison by which to say the GCN version was less successful than. Similarly we don't have a DS Monster Hunter/Crisis Core/Tales of Phantasia to directly compare the PSP games with.
ccbfan said:Did you even bother to read the rest of my post or did you just read 1 line and ignore the rest that explains it?
GreenGlowingGoo said:It's funny how you talk about the Playstation dominating for 8 years, but fail to put in that Nintendo had dominated before that for longer and still got pushed away by Sony who came out of nowhere in the gaming industry. And the recent success of Nintendo in the handheld market against Playstation when Nintendo dropped their big gameboy brand but still dominated.
GreenGlowingGoo said:Brand dominance changes easily, from one generation to the next, but that is rarely the case within a generation, which we are in.
GreenGlowingGoo said:The reason I responded to you before is that you were somehow equating guesses before the generation started and predictions now. There is a big difference.
JoshuaJSlone said:Isn't that just the definition of the market leader?
I don't think that's valid for any current systems, though, really. Success on PS2 doesn't imply success on PS3/PSP, and DS and Wii are so successful because they're not defined by the same things as their predecessors.
JoshuaJSlone said:"Would have done" is always a guessing game, though. If they hadn't released Tales of Symphonia on PS2, we wouldn't have a comparison by which to say the GCN version was less successful than.
ethelred said:Right, right. I know in Hypothetical Nintard Fantasy World, Crisis Core came out on the DS and sold 5 million copies because of how hugely fanboyish towards Cloud x Sephie the stylus fanbase is. Here in Real World, though, it's still one of the best-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever created, even comparing its performance to market leading platforms like the PSX, the PS2, and the NDS; its sales are consistent with how a top-of-the-line Final Fantasy spinoff should sell. Anyone who latches onto it as some sort of underachiever is, I regret to say, pushing an agenda bigger than the iceberg what sunk the Titanic.
We can't compare the PSP's Monster Hunter performance with that of the PS2? We can't compare Tales of Phantasia's PSP performance to that of the GBA? Surely those count as market leading platforms as well -- surely, at the very least, the PS2 is? Your statement was that by definition a market leading platform is going to engender better sales for various third party games, but that isn't the case as here I'm pointing to a bunch of third party games and series that thrived on perpetually second place PSP.
We can't compare Crisis Core to Crisis Core DS (thank god), but we can look at how every single Final Fantasy spinoff has done on another system. While none leads to a direct comparison, there's still enough broad information about the subseries and its trending to tell us enough -- that Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, had outsold a lot of its brethren and didn't just achieve "good for the system" sales but "great for the series in general" sales.
ethelred said:Right, right. I know in Hypothetical Nintendo Candy Land Fantasy World, Crisis Core came out on the DS and sold 5 million copies because of how hugely fanboyish towards Cloud x Sephie the stylus fanbase is. Here in Real World, though, it's still one of the best-selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever created, even comparing its performance to market leading platforms like the PSX, the PS2, and the NDS; its sales are consistent with how a top-of-the-line Final Fantasy spinoff should sell. Anyone who latches onto it as some sort of underachiever is, I regret to say, pushing an agenda bigger than the iceberg what sunk the Titanic.
test_account said:I dont quite see what you mean with this. We were talking about how the situation was 2 years before Wii was released, that would be somewhere around 2004. Nintendo did not dominate in 2004 so why should i mention Nintendo's domination back in the late 80's and to some extend in the early 90's? That is irrelevant to this example. Handheld is a different marked and Nintendo has dominated that since the release of Gameboy in 1990 (maybe you can even count Game & Watch from the early 80's too). But that is a different discussion.
test_account said:So far this has seem to be the case, but history doesnt always repeat itself. These times are different from the other times. If it will happend again is totally possible of course, but its not a given.
test_account said:My point was that you could use logic and evidence already back in 2004 that Nintendo Wii wouldnt dominate this generation (so far atleast), just like you can use logic and evidence today that PS3 wont sell i.e 12 million within 4 years. I agree that its a different thing, but the main thing is still the same, using evidence and logic on today's situation to predict the future.
Parl said:On the other side of the coin, a spin-off doesn't typically sell as well as a main numbered iteration because its perception as a spin-off (that stigma makes it less compelling than a main numbered title), most spin-offs are viewed as lower quality titles, and they're promoted less. These attributes only partially apply to CC as it has the strength of the FF7, was generally viewed as a high quality title (higher than that of many of the other spin-offs) and was promoted heavily.
The game sold really well, but it sold to less than a third of those who buy main iterations on PS2. If you define success as making a significant profit (whatever that is), then that's fine.
I don't think Monster Hunter Portable would have been more successful on DS, but I think maybe that CC would have been, despite the disadvantages the game has from being on there. Same applies to if it was on PS2.
ksamedi said:Heh, I'm not a Nintard living in a fantasy world and don't call me that.
ksamedi said:You just have to create stuff that sells and if it doesn't, blaming the userbase is the last thing you should do.
charlequin said:The mainline Tales series has a huge, long history of sales on three other consoles. Symphonia GCN sold dramatically worse than every other entry in the series, including Legendia -- the game with bad release buzz due to the alternate team developing it. The most comparable title, Tales of the Abyss (designed by the same subgroup of Tales Studio) sold about double on the PS2 what ToS did on the GCN. It's pretty much completely unambiguous that ToS was a sales failure and that its platform was the direct and sole cause of that failure.
That's a flawed analysis, the FFVII appeal of userbase on PSP cannot solely attain to the success of the game. Aren't you ignoring the fact that people also concede to a game based on the quality? Or even taking genre into account?ethelred said:We can't compare Crisis Core to Crisis Core DS (thank god), but we can look at how every single Final Fantasy spinoff has done on another system. While none leads to a direct comparison, there's still enough broad information about the subseries and its trending to tell us enough -- that Crisis Core, despite being on a secondary platform, had outsold a lot of its brethren and didn't just achieve "good for the system" sales but "great for the series in general" sales.
jj984jj said:So while it's unfair to underplay Crisis Core's success, I think it's also unfair to compare it to other Final Fantasy spin-offs, or to even outright say that it would not have performed better on the DS or Wii or even on the 360 (okay, maybe not on the 360 in Japan :lol ).
jj984jj said:That's a flawed analysis, the FFVII appeal of userbase on PSP cannot solely attain to the success of the game. Aren't you ignoring the fact that people also concede to a game based on the quality? Or even taking genre into account?
If S-E had made FFXII:RW in-house for about 3 years, or had at least coordinated Think & Feel and Brownie Brown's efforts into a higher-quality game, do you think it would have done better? Or how about if they made into a full RPG or even the action/semi-RPG they made Crisis Core into instead of a pseudo-RTS/semi-RPG, would a FFXII:RW like that perform more successfully? I think so.
So while it's unfair to underplay Crisis Core's success, I think it's also unfair to compare it to other Final Fantasy spin-offs, or to even outright say that it would not have performed better on the DS or Wii or even on the 360 (okay, maybe not on the 360 in Japan).
ksamedi said:Heh, I'm not a Nintard living in a fantasy world and don't call me that. What you fail to understand is that most PSP owners probably also own a DS. What sells on the PSP could also sell on the DS or PS2 if the game works well on the platform. Its not like all those PSP owners suddenly started buying Monster Hunter because its on PSP and they feel they reperesent the PSP. Its not like that, and thats kind of the picture you are painting, almost saying that stuff sells worse on DS because of Nintards, or stuff sells good on PSP because of Sony fans. Both Sony and Nintendo would be one happy company if theyh had so many blind fans, in truth those fans only make up a very small percentage of the userbase. You just have to create stuff that sells and if it doesn't, blaming the userbase is the last thing you should do.
Oblivion 360 doubled Oblivion PS3.Phoenix Down said:any third party multi plat game released in japan will sale much better on the PS3.. no brainer...
ethelred said:Whether or not a game made a profit is a good gauge for success. But again, there's a lot of history here and we can look at how the game sold compared to every other spinoff -- and the answer, except in one particular case, is "better." It's pretty plain meaning, actually, but you're going through some severe contortions of straight-up numeric comparisons and twists of logic to state that Crisis Core not only should have sold better than all prior Final Fantasy spinoffs but that it should have sold more better than the prior Final Fantasy spinoffs... and because it just didn't outsell every one of them but one by enough of a margin to meet your hypothetical standard, it wasn't successful.
Frankly, that's beyond silly. The numbers have a plain meaning and they speak for themselves, and comparatively Crisis Core was more than a success. It may well end up outselling the original release of Kingdom Hearts, for christ's sake. The bar you are setting is both unreasonable and irrational.
Pureauthor said:I don't see how one could state with such conviction that a Crisis Core DS wouldn't have done better (significantly or no) that the Crisis Core we do have.
Given first that a Crisis Core DS would have to be a significantly different game from the Crisis Core that did release, there's no call either that (a) the quality (enjoyabiliy, et al) of the game would have suffered on the DS, or that (b) Square would not have aggressively marketed it like they did for the Crisis Core that did appear.
The userbase demographic argument is also strange to me. Let's give that the PSP has a more 'hardcore' base, because usually it's the hardcore that buy the systems that aren't performing as well. However, said hardcore would likely also own DSes, thus such sales would also carry over regardless of the handheld.
Therefore, at absolute least, sales would be largely the same regardless of platform, and I believe it would be higher on the DS simply due to the larger userbase to sell to.
GreenGlowingGoo said:The reason I brought up nintendo was to point out in the past, even long strings of domination suddenly die. So you cannot just assume Sony will continue without actually looking at history. And dominating the market for years didn't help Nintendo, but in the case of 2 years ago, you just assume it's going to help Sony. What is that based on?
GreenGlowingGoo said:That's like saying a puddle and an ocean are the same because they both have water.
GreenGlowingGoo said:It's not a given, but as time passes it becomes more and more likely. How much time has to pass before the possibility goes away?
GreenGlowingGoo said:To which you still replied that they are both predictions. But let me ask you this flat out. Which one has more credit?
GreenGlowingGoo said:You are so quick to often say "anything is possible." But the question is, what is more likely?
test_account said:Do you mean these predictions?
1. Saying in 2004 that Wii would dominate this generation.
2. Saying that PS3 will see an amazing boost in hardware sale and regain the number 1 spot?
I would say both is pretty much on the same line.
Pureauthor said:I don't see how one could state with such conviction that a Crisis Core DS wouldn't have done better (significantly or no) that the Crisis Core we do have.