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[charlequin]

CC:FF7 is a success, but you can't compare it to any other spinoff.

Where does this "you can't compare it" stuff come from? This isn't a fair sporting event or gentleman's contest; it's analysis.

You can indeed compare CC to other spinoffs, and see that it's done much better than most of them. Then you can look at what advantages and differences it had over those other games -- FF7 name, above-average polish, way above average marketing, etc. Using analysis, you can try to determine how much effect each of these things had, and thereby try to predict future sales better.

I would agree that you can't compare CC to other spinoffs and derive an all-encompassing conclusion about the PSP as a software platform. It proves that it's not impossible for a PSP game to sell well (it's a PSP game, and it sold well) but on its own it absolutely doesn't prove a conclusion like "The PSP makes FF games sell better than they would otherwise."

 

[Eteric Rice]

Wonder how well FFCC will do? I'm thinking maybe 200k - 300k.

Where does this "you can't compare it" stuff come from? This isn't a fair sporting event or gentleman's contest; it's analysis.

You can indeed compare CC to other spinoffs, and see that it's done much better than most of them. Then you can look at what advantages and differences it had over those other games -- FF7 name, above-average polish, way above average marketing, etc. Using analysis, you can try to determine how much effect each of these things had, and thereby try to predict future sales better.

I would agree that you can't compare CC to other spinoffs and derive an all-encompassing conclusion about the PSP as a software platform. It proves that it's not impossible for a PSP game to sell well (it's a PSP game, and it sold well) but on its own it absolutely doesn't prove a conclusion like "The PSP makes FF games sell better than they would otherwise."

I agree.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I definitely agree Crisis Core is a success. I just think it's hard to point to games like it as a success and then say that no non-Naruto third-party GCN games were anything better than failure. If we were to combine all third-party PSP and GCN games together into one list, the top ten would currently include five games from each.

And ethelred, this is not meant to debunk your point but just to bring in some more data:

only FFT has performed better when looking at the breadth and depth of Final Fantasy spinoffs

If we're really getting broad and deep with FF-related titles, the first Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon passed 800K in its first week, going on to nearly 1.2 million. The second one petered out around 600K, though.

Right, because sales standards are formed by publishers based on development cost and other intangibles on the back end, not by userbase size.

Yes. Nintendo wasn't holding other executives' families hostage, yet they continued releasing games for the machine for several years. For a 2004 GameCube project they simply wouldn't budget in such a way that they'd need to sell 400K copies to break even.

 

[charlequin]

Frankly, I don't recall anyone here complaining when I highlighted Dragon Quest Swords sales in comparison to how other Dragon Quest spinoffs had done

I wish I'd remembered about DQS about five pages ago. It follows along some of the same principles as FF7CC: spinoff + particularly strong effort + particularly strong marketing + good game = lots of success.

About Kingdom Hearts, since the series was born on PS platform, and more graphic intensive (IIRC), the possibility that you are right is bigger. How many Disney assets are used in Birth by Sleep or 179 ? If the usage of Disney assets are similar, and the gametype is also similar (I don't like KH games, so I don't follow games in that series), since the DS in Japan is more friendly (have higher percentage) towards women, and lots of women like Disney (IIRC), I predict that DS version sold more than PSP version (unless there is another big DS game sold in the same day as KH:179)

This is going to be an interesting comparison, and how it works out will do a lot to determine whether the theoretical arguments we're throwing around now are true or not. Based on what we know right now, it seems like 358/2 is a somewhat barebones spinoff but with KH-style gameplay, while BbS is essentially a full-fledged KH. Assuming this is true I expect BbS to put up superior sales.

I think that decision (not to publish a second GCN game) is mostly caused by the dissapointing GC H/W sales in Japan (and worldwide), and also caused by "not necessitated by Nintendo" reason, not because of FF:CC sales #.

I wouldn't say that FF:CC sales were specifically the cause of no second GCN game; rather, I think S-E never wanted to publish on GCN in the first place, only did so at Nintendo's insistence, and saw nothing in that one effort's sales that convinced them to reconsider that decision. That really only narrows it down to "not an unqualified success in sales," rather than pegging it as a failure per se.

I definitely agree Crisis Core is a success. I just think it's hard to point to games like it as a success and then say that no non-Naruto third-party GCN games were anything better than failure. If we were to combine all third-party PSP and GCN games together into one list, the top ten would currently include five games from each.

While that's true, it's worth noting that the top three PSP third-party titles outsold the top three GCN third-party titles by ~300k or more, and its fifth best selling game is a low-budget port (FFT) that put up strong sales; I think the PSP comes out looking noticeably better.

 

[apujanata]

I wish I'd remembered about DQS about five pages ago. It follows along some of the same principles as FF7CC: spinoff + particularly strong effort + particularly strong marketing + good game = lots of success.

This is going to be an interesting comparison, and how it works out will do a lot to determine whether the theoretical arguments we're throwing around now are true or not. Based on what we know right now, it seems like 358/2 is a somewhat barebones spinoff but with KH-style gameplay, while BbS is essentially a full-fledged KH. Assuming this is true I expect BbS to put up superior sales.

While that's true, it's worth noting that the top three PSP third-party titles outsold the top three GCN third-party titles by ~300k or more, and its fifth best selling game is a low-budget port (FFT) that put up strong sales; I think the PSP comes out looking noticeably better.

DQS certainly get a good sales, and can be considered as success.
453K (Famitsu) on 3.6 Million userbase is certainly comparable to 705K (Famitsu) on 6.6 Million userbase.

Based on your italicized info, then BbS as a full-fledged KH will trounce 358/2. Only a miracle (and strong DS userbase) might enable 358/2 to > BbS.

We have possibilities of (in Japan) :
1. PS3 < GC (worst case)
2. PS3 > GC, but < PSP (not bad)
3. PS3 > PSP, but < PS2 (best case scenario)
4. PS3 > PS2 (Cue Mission Impossible music)

Any Sony fanboys still think the scenario #4 can happen ? I believe lots of people are willing to do a ban bet against #4.

 

[Lobster]

Wonder how well FFCC will do? I'm thinking maybe 200k - 300k.

The actual Wii one? I reckon it will do over 500k in Japan.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Yeah, the Wii one.

I think DQSwords would have done around 700k in sales if the game was longer.

 

[Arde5643]

Yeah, the Wii one.

I think DQSwords would have done around 700k in sales if the game was longer.

Or if SE didn't undership it.

 

[Lobster]

Yeah, the Wii one.

I think DQSwords would have done around 700k in sales if the game was longer.

I reckon it would have done 700k if Square shipped a shitload more at launch.

Last time we say that game wasn't it around the 550k-ish area?? I may be wrong..could've been 600k?

 

[Eteric Rice]

I reckon it would have done 700k if Square shipped a shitload more at launch.

Last time we say that game wasn't it around the 550k-ish area?? I may be wrong..could've been 600k?

Last time I heard, like 300k.

 

[apujanata]

Yeah, the Wii one.

I think DQSwords would have done around 700k in sales if the game was longer.

I think SE was testing the water (so to speak) with DQS, so short is better than long, since long means increased development cost. For future Wii games, I'm sure most of them will be longer.

Question for those who have played DQS : Is there a mini games, or multiplayer (player vs. player) that can be played after you finish the game ? I know that I sometimes still whip out my DQ Slime game, to replay the awesome tank mini-game, and collect some ingredient, for multiplayer tank mini-game.

 

[nextgeneration]

DQS has sold 470,698 units.

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/wii.php

 

[apujanata]

Last time I heard, like 300k.

Last time we say that game wasn't it around the 550k-ish area?? I may be wrong..could've been 600k?

You are both wrong (at least against Famitsu. No idea of the m-create data).
It is 453,445 on Famitsu, as of 26-Aug-07. It might have reached 500K, but I doubt it.

Edit : Strange. Where did Moor Angol get that data ? Probably from the Famitsu magazine he bought during his Japan visit.

 

[Lobster]

DQS Sold 305k first week.

53K the next week

around 25-30k next week

15-20k next week

10k? the next week

Sold pretty well. Had potential to sell more if S-E shipped more.

 

[BishopLamont]

Where does this "you can't compare it" stuff come from? This isn't a fair sporting event or gentleman's contest; it's analysis.

You can indeed compare CC to other spinoffs, and see that it's done much better than most of them. Then you can look at what advantages and differences it had over those other games -- FF7 name, above-average polish, way above average marketing, etc. Using analysis, you can try to determine how much effect each of these things had, and thereby try to predict future sales better.

I would agree that you can't compare CC to other spinoffs and derive an all-encompassing conclusion about the PSP as a software platform. It proves that it's not impossible for a PSP game to sell well (it's a PSP game, and it sold well) but on its own it absolutely doesn't prove a conclusion like "The PSP makes FF games sell better than they would otherwise."

You know what I mean by "you can't compare it", what you think you guys been debating about?

 

[Lightning]

One of the worst media create threads I have seen on this forum. :lol

 

[BishopLamont]

One of the worst media create threads I have seen on this forum. :lol

Right after the MC thread where PS3 and Wii cross streams.

 

[rakka]

One of the worst media create threads I have seen on this forum. :lol

why is that, lightning

 

[Xeke]

Right after the MC thread where PS3 and Wii cross streams.

When will that one happen?

 

[AniHawk]

DS
Final Fantasy XII Revenant Wings: 8
Ninja Gaiden: 3
Dragon Quest Monster Joker: 1
Professor Layton: me

PSP
God of War: 19
Gran Tursisno: 8
Silent Hill: 6
Disgaea: 5

360
Mass Effect: 36
Halo Wars: 21

Wii
SSBB: 116
Super Mario Galaxy: 66
REUC: 18
Fire Emblem: 9
NiGHTS: 6
Soulcalibur Legends: 5
Trauma Center: me

PS3
Ratchet & Clank: 5
Killzone 2: 5
Uncharted: 3
Haze: 2
Little Big Planet: 1

Grand Theft Auto: 80 (56 360, 24 PS3)

Call of Duty 4: 68 (52 360, 16 PS3)
Rock Band: 37 (29 360, 4 PS2, 4 PS3)

Star Wars Force Unleashed: 30 (20 360, 10 PS3)

 

[BishopLamont]

When will that one happen?

When it does.

 

[rakka]

DS
Final Fantasy XII Revenant Wings: 8
Brothers in Arms: 7
Ninja Gaiden: 3
Dragon Quest Monster Joker: 1
Professor Layton: me

didn't that come out months ago?

 

[AniHawk]

didn't that come out months ago?

Guess so.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

It's pretty confusing to talk about Crystal Chronicles and Crisis Core at the same time.

 

[Moor-Angol]

You are both wrong (at least against Famitsu. No idea of the m-create data).
It is 453,445 on Famitsu, as of 26-Aug-07. It might have reached 500K, but I doubt it.

Edit : Strange. Where did Moor Angol get that data ? Probably from the Famitsu magazine he bought during his Japan visit.

If you mean DQ:S sales i got latest data from the japanese site i usually get data (sorry i dont have the link now, i am at work, it's the one on geocities.jp), probably it was some special article which showed DQ:S sales, it's normal to find sometimes some data on Famitsu issues besides top30.
The site is very reliable, so i don't have any doubt about the source.

 

[cws]

Star Wars Force Unleashed: 30 (20 360, 10 PS3)

weird that no one is preordering the wii version..that kind of game should be very popular on wii...

 

[Parl]

Thanks for the numbers, Ani.

Those SSBB numbers are wow.

 

[Phife Dawg]

weird that no one is preordering the wii version..that kind of game should be very popular on wii...

Is there even a release date for this? It was announced later than the other versions iirc. I doubt a same day release.

 

[AniHawk]

Thanks for the numbers, Ani.

Those SSBB numbers are wow.

Not quite yet. Pokemon numbers were around 200, GHIII was at 250, and the mighty Halo 3 was at 500. It'll probably hit 250 though, my guess.

 

[rakka]

Is there even a release date for this? It was announced later than the other versions iirc. I doubt a same day release.

all versions are still tba 2008.

 

[Leonsito]

Haze: 2
Little Big Planet: 1

*_* What?

 

[test_account]

I'm not 100% sure on that, I was taken by surprise, but many were looking to the DS as an indicator of a possible shift. I dunno. I would have personally bet on Sony before launch.

Ah yes, true. When you say it i do remember people saying this, that since DS was so damn popular the same would happend to Wii.

I think i used the term circumstantial evidence wrongly and I apologize.

Anyway, you're right, nobody knows for sure, but my main point is that not all predictions are equal. You have to look at where the prediction came from. I think we can both agree on that.

I'm the kind of person who, even if a prediction is 100% right, still won't concede the predictor was correct if the prediction had just come out of their ass.

True that, not all predictions are equal. Predicting that Wii will have a 5 million LTD by the end of 2007 is a prediction that is much more likely to happend than saying PS3 will have a 5 million LTD by the end of 2007. So that i agree to of course

My examples was just to show that the 2004 Wii prediction and the 12 million PS3 prediction were (is for PS3) both pretty unlikely to happend. When i said earlier that i put them both on the same line, i ment that these 2 predictions were both unlikely to happend on the same scale. Atleast that is my opinion, agree or disagree

 

[jarrod]

And ethelred, this is not meant to debunk your point but just to bring in some more data:

If we're really getting broad and deep with FF-related titles, the first Chocobo's Mysterious Dungeon passed 800K in its first week, going on to nearly 1.2 million. The second one petered out around 600K, though.

There's also FFX-2, which makes for a better direct comparison to Crisis Core (both being direct chapter FF spinoffs).

If we stretch out further into FF-spinoffs, Seiken Densetsu 2-3 and Kingdom Hearts 1-2 also sold better.

 

[tanod]

Hay guys, wat's goin on in this thread?

So how does the most boring MC week in a long time get one of the longest threads in recent memory? Did somebody get unbanned?

 

[Pureauthor]

There's also FFX-2, which makes for a better direct comparison to Crisis Core (both being direct chapter FF spinoffs).

FFX-2 isn't a spinoff, man.

And Kingdom Hearts and the Mana series are spinoffs? By that awesome logic, what game is Super Smash Brothers a spinoff of?

 

[Kyoufu]

There's also FFX-2, which makes for a better direct comparison to Crisis Core (both being direct chapter FF spinoffs).

If we stretch out further into FF-spinoffs, Seiken Densetsu 2-3 and Kingdom Hearts 1-2 also sold better.

... what

FFX-2 is a direct sequel.

Kingdom hearts is not an FF spin-off...it is it's own franchise.

 

[Parl]

Hay guys, wat's goin on in this thread?

So how does the most boring MC week in a long time get one of the longest threads in recent memory? Did somebody get unbanned?

PS3 is closing the gap with Wii and Crisis Core was a smashing success that wasn't held back by PSP's installed base.

Not quite yet. Pokemon numbers were around 200, GHIII was at 250, and the mighty Halo 3 was at 500. It'll probably hit 250 though, my guess.

Yeah, I took that into account. To have lower pre-order numbers than titles like Pokemon, Halo 3 and GHIII isn't saying much though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I wish I'd remembered about DQS about five pages ago. It follows along some of the same principles as FF7CC: spinoff + particularly strong effort + particularly strong marketing + good game = lots of success.

It's a spinoff in a basically new sub-series (well, there was the standalone device) and not budding from a previous entry, which I think makes a difference. Original games like Monsters, Crystal Chronicles, and Tactics stand more on general franchise strength and name recognition, while Torneko, Yangus, and Revenant Wings count on one's familiarity/enjoyment of a specific entry.

 

[Kenka]

where are my pal charts ? :'(

I'm missing 'em

 

[Parl]

where are my pal charts ? :'(

I'm missing 'em

Several hours to go yet, unless they're delayed. Don't know when precisely though. I think it's around 6-7 PM GMT, Mondays.

 

[PistolGrip]

We have possibilities of (in Japan) :
1. PS3 < GC (worst case)
2. PS3 > GC, but < PSP (not bad)
3. PS3 > PSP, but < PS2 (best case scenario)
4. PS3 > PS2 (Cue Mission Impossible music)

Any Sony fanboys still think the scenario #4 can happen ? I believe lots of people are willing to do a ban bet against #4.

I think its more than possible. Because of the Wii, PS3 has no direct competitor and only price stands in its way. Big titles are coming out and Sony keeps popping theirs out. I don't expect the PSP to beat the PS2 lifetime there but that's because the hardcore handheld gaming market isnt so big yet. They need casual appeal and they just don't have it unless their music/video download service they been promising takes japan by storm I don't see that happenning.

The real question is whether anything will beat the DS in Japan ever!?

 

[Magicpaint]

The real question is whether anything will beat the DS in Japan ever!?

Well, the Wii is tracking ahead of it, so far.

 

[PistolGrip]

Well, the Wii is tracking ahead of it, so far.

Wii Light 2008 confirmed?

 

[Pureauthor]

I think its more than possible.

You mean 'probable', then?

Because of the Wii, PS3 has no direct competitor and only price stands in its way.

Price, and the perception as the 'loser' console that's getting harder and harder to shake off.

Also, the Wii isn't it's direct competition, true - the PS3 isn't good enough to even dream of competing with the Wii.

Big titles are coming out and Sony keeps popping theirs out.

...Keeps popping theirs out? Like what?

I don't expect the PSP to beat the PS2 lifetime there but that's because the hardcore handheld gaming market isnt so big yet.

The 'hardcore' market of just about everything has never been big.

 

[Stumpokapow]

...Keeps popping theirs out? Like what?

Well we've already established that Eye of Judgement is going to sell a million copies!

 

[Jokeropia]

Because of the Wii, PS3 has no direct competitor and only price stands in its way.

If you still believed this, MH3 should've taught you otherwise.

 

[iidesuyo]

What I noticed about hardware numbers... could it be that the DS is über-successful in Japan only? It has already surpassed the GBA there by some millions, but on a worldwide scale still hasn't catched it. DS has seen nearly 40% of it's sales in Japan, while for the PS2 it's only about 15%.

Are there numbers of DS vs. GBA in the first 30 months after release for the three major territories?

 

[cws]

What I noticed about hardware numbers... could it be that the DS is über-successful in Japan only? It has already surpassed the GBA there by some millions, but on a worldwide scale still hasn't catched it. DS has seen nearly 40% of it's sales in Japan, while for the PS2 it's only about 15%.

Are there numbers of DS vs. GBA in the first 30 months after release for the three major territories?

ds lite will surpass the gba easy in europe... NA i dont`t know though...
but don`t forget that the ds will probably will be sold for another 3-4 years and they still didn`t cut the price to 99$ or 79$

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What I noticed about hardware numbers... could it be that the DS is über-successful in Japan only? It has already surpassed the GBA there by some millions, but on a worldwide scale still hasn't catched it. DS has seen nearly 40% of it's sales in Japan, while for the PS2 it's only about 15%.

Are there numbers of DS vs. GBA in the first 30 months after release for the three major territories?

I've got shipment numbers.

Japan. DS ahead by a long shot now, but was behind for more than its first year.

North America. DS is still behind GBA. This region didn't stop buying GBAs as quickly as the others.

Europe/Other. Much like Japan, DS is well ahead now, but for more than the first year it was slightly behind.

Worldwide. Thanks to NA's slow uptake DS was behind GBA for the first two years, but it's now ahead and should widen the gap even further with these upcoming holidays.

 

[Jokeropia]

The DS success in Japan is miles and miles beyond what any system has ever done anywhere ever. Adjusting for the difference in market size, it would be like selling well over 1 million per month for years at the time in the US. (And over 4 million in December.)