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Media Create Sales 10/22 - 10/28 2007
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
I meant bombed in terms of what it did first day. Its bombed first day.
I don't know whats its going to do this week or this holiday season.
It could have Brain traning like legs or it could have Final Fantasy like legs. At this point we don't know and considering the Japanese market right now you can't even make an educated guess on how the game is going to do.
A week ago people were saying that this game was going to sell 400k minimum first day. A month ago people were predicting 1 million first week and it will not only make the Wii supply constraint but also help other hardcore games sell better. You know what none of this happened. It could end like DQS or it could sell more next week than this week. At this point we don't know.
It sold 130k first day, thats the only fact we know about SMG. Hopefully it'll have great legs cause I don't want to play most of my japanese games on a 3 by 2 screen.
I don't know whats its going to do this week or this holiday season.
It could have Brain traning like legs or it could have Final Fantasy like legs. At this point we don't know and considering the Japanese market right now you can't even make an educated guess on how the game is going to do.
A week ago people were saying that this game was going to sell 400k minimum first day. A month ago people were predicting 1 million first week and it will not only make the Wii supply constraint but also help other hardcore games sell better. You know what none of this happened. It could end like DQS or it could sell more next week than this week. At this point we don't know.
It sold 130k first day, thats the only fact we know about SMG. Hopefully it'll have great legs cause I don't want to play most of my japanese games on a 3 by 2 screen.
i dont think they lost money on Zelda Tp and i dont think they will loose money on mario galaxy..dark10x said:
also Nintendo has a very solid fanbase that they need when their ventures fail :lol :lol :lol (see N64 and GC)
so they really cant ignore those franchises.. and of course they wont
AceBandage
Banned
JavyOO7 said:
1 million out of the gate when they didn't even ship that many?
Huh?
TheKingsCrown
Banned
Oh what dangerous waters we enter, where GAFers freak out at everything. Anyone who thinks that, if it is as good as people say, Mario Galaxy will not pull great numbers over its life is living in an anxious moment of anal probing. The japanese either adopt something or they don't. Sometimes they don't adopt good things, but they are usually 100 times more adept than peeps in the U.S.A., for instance, at grabbing onto good things. Although, for some reason they are also as adept at grabbing onto as much crap. If the game is good, word of mouth etc. will keep its legs moving. If that doesn't happen then whatever, the game is clearly for other markets at this point.
Either way, Nintendo is not d00med. Look at their financial statements.
Either way, Nintendo is not d00med. Look at their financial statements.
Don't celebrate too much. The question isn't which console is the home of casuals, it's which is the home of the hardcore. It looks like, at the moment, they'll show up for one or two games per season on the DS or PSP and that's it.Elios83 said:QFT
IMO this just confirms that Wii is a product for casuals. Wii Fit is probably where its holyday season is at.
DeaconKnowledge said:
I think it's just we worked ourselves into a frenzy of hype, and like most hype it didn't deliver. The Japanese consumer just wasn't as enthusiastic about the game as we were. I saw the advertising as bad (not so much bad in quality as in quantity) but other j-gaffers said it was OK. Regardless, something went wrong. Either with Nintendo, or with us. Or both. It's going to take a bit of time to sort out how good or bad this number is. I'm personally disappointed but I don't know weather I should be or not.
TheKingsCrown
Banned
I completely agree. Perhaps just d00med for the moment of this generation though. I think it is going through a natural, and needed, process of refinement. Maybe it will become as broad as the book industry, where every game has a slight variation on others and only a very very select few end up being significantly profitable. Is that where we are moving?dark10x said:Nintendo certainly isn't doomed, but this type of things seems to suggest that traditional gaming may be (at least in Japan).
Segata Sanshiro
Member
I don't like being a grammar nazi (total lie, I love it, I just usually keep it to myself), but I've seen you make this mistake a few times now, so I'm going to correct you in hopes you won't make the same error in the future.ccbfan said:
'Constraint' is a noun. You seem to be using it as an adjective, but the word simply does not work this way. The word you are looking for is 'constrained', which is an adjective.
Just another helpful tip from your friendly neighbourhood Segata!
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Gahiggidy said:
2 millions is not a realistic number. It has to sell better then Super Mario Sunshine, and then it will be ok.
dark10x said:
So how do you know that Galaxy will sell below expectations with only seeing first day sales from Japan?
These are only Japanese figures, I'm sure Galaxy will sell fantastic in America and Europe. And over time it will also sell great in Japan.
Lastly, Zelda Twilight Princess Wii version alone has sold over 4 Million world wide. That's already more than what Wind Waker ever did, and the game hasn't stopped selling yet.
AceBandage
Banned
SovanJedi said:
2K
Bomba.
No.DeaconKnowledge said:
If the game doesn't outsell SMS in the long term, it will be disappointing, but so far it's heading for a 250-300K opening before the holiday rush, so there's nothing untoward here, some expectations were too high.
Nintendo games often have amazing legs and Wii is still the dominant system in Japan with PS3 in the usual niche secondary position and nothing suggests this is going to change in the future, so if there is a market for new versions of old games on home consoles it's going to be on Wii.
Given the lull in the home console market at the moment I see nothing of concern in SMG's sales. It's is going to be a test for more traditional gaming, but the results won't really be conclusive until mid January going by the previous trends of the Japanese market. Historically Nintendo always sells most of their hw and sw in the holidays, proportionally far more than Sony ever has, it's just the performance of Wii and DS throughout this year has made people forget this (if they were aware of the trend).
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
:lol The spin here is hilarious.
I think this is a situation where armchair analysts bought into the hype. SMG looks good and they want to play it. Therefore, they believe that everyone and their dog will be lining up to get a hold of the game. Plus many people seem to believe that Wii = instant million seller, which is not the case.
130,000 for the first day is not good. This is Nintendo's most important franchise.
I think this is a situation where armchair analysts bought into the hype. SMG looks good and they want to play it. Therefore, they believe that everyone and their dog will be lining up to get a hold of the game. Plus many people seem to believe that Wii = instant million seller, which is not the case.
130,000 for the first day is not good. This is Nintendo's most important franchise.
Frillen said:
I don't think the worry is that SMG will bomb WW. It will do great WW just like TP did. That's not the real concern. Or is there any concern of of Nintendo forgoing games like traditional mario and zelda on home consoles. The concern is where the hell are the traditional on home consoles. Nintendo will continuing making smash/mario/zelda on home consoles. There's still large market for that.
The real problem is where are the other Japanese games going to go, especially ones where 90+ percent of sales comes from Japan. The lessor games that are normally on home consoles that are popping up on handheld. What if TOS2 bombs. Will tales games appear on home consoles anymore? Will we ever see another main DQ on home consoles?
It more of the direction gaming is heading in Japan and SMG's performance is a huge indicator of where its going.
Personally I don't care how much money Nintendo makes. Wii Fit succeeding and SMG bombing is worse to me than both bombing. I only care about the parts of Nintendo that I like which are the games that I like. I'm hoping Wii Fit bombs.
I still find it very amusing that a few short months ago, a bunch of members in the Wii Fan Club were insisting that it was the perfect machine to inherit the hardcore, niche, completely non-casual RPG fanbase of the Atluses and the Nippon Ichis. Fun thread! But I imagine the Wii is looking less and less appealing to these publishers with every passing week.
It's not an instant million seller, but Mario Galaxy will still sell a million. Perhaps not much beyond that, but it will reach that benchmark at least. But even that's going to be worrisome for third party publishers who are going to look at that to gauge the strength of traditional gaming on the system.
The Experiment said:
It's not an instant million seller, but Mario Galaxy will still sell a million. Perhaps not much beyond that, but it will reach that benchmark at least. But even that's going to be worrisome for third party publishers who are going to look at that to gauge the strength of traditional gaming on the system.
Pristine_Condition
Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Hmm. Does Enterbrain use a combination of different people's numbers?
Because when I did the math:
Media Create Wii 10/1 - 10/28
20,704
20,575
24,932
27,502
--------
93,713
Media Create PS3 10/1 - 10/28
10,822
12,365
17,130
18,785
--------
59,102
Which means a Wii/PS3 ratio of 1.585/1 Not 2/1.
What gives with Enterbrain's numbers?
They have Wii selling 16,702 more than the Media Create numbers, and PS3 selling 11,919 less than Media Create in the same time period.
Am I missing something? Where do Enterbrain's numbers come from?
If Enterbrain's numbers are off, maybe Reuters should look into a new primary source for their reports.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Hard to decide such things. Is it a bigger advantage that it's a main entry, or a bigger disadvantage that it's not specifically attracting the Gundam crowd? Are the crowd who bought Gundam Musou and maybe Musou Orochi earlier this year ready for more already?Phife Dawg said:
Good point, but part of the situation is also reversed. Super Mario Sunshine was the late July game, while Mario Party 4 was the early November game.AniHawk said:
Closer to 800K.Mrbob said:
Those would be some incredibly poor legs for a Mario title.Chû Totoro said:
Well, we know Mario Party 8 and Super Paper Mario have at least tripled their first week sales. Super Mario Sunshine nearly did that back in the day. The most front-loaded Nintendo-published Wii title so far has been... Fire Emblem and Donkey Kong Barrel Blast have only done a bit more than double first week sales. Some like Endless Ocean and Eyeshield 21 might be lower, but since they didn't stick in the top of the charts long we don't have as much to go on.ccbfan said:
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Enterbrain is Famitsu.Pristine_Condition said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
ethelred said:
Ignoring the fanboys, I think this brings up a very important discussion.
You're NI/Atlus/Marvelous. The Wii has software sale issues. The 360 is a non-issue. The PS3 has even worse software sale issues. The PS2 userbase won't hold on for too much longer.
Mobile phone is not really an option for most of your stuff technically (although there are a few exceptions; Yggdra Union is the town whore.) That leaves the PSP, which TBQH has software sales that are as similarly anemic as the Wii... although they're starting to pick up... and the DS.
Do you drop console development entirely? Try to use PS2/PSP/Wii multiplat releases to shore up income? What will replace the PS2 in 2009, 2010, and onwards?
Pristine_Condition
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Ahhh.
Why are Famitsu's numbers so different from Media Create? Does anyone know how are they generated, or is the process as "mysterious" (or shady) as Famitsu's review process?
Do they not survey certain retailers?
That's a bit less than I expected galaxy to sell on the first day, but I think it will have legs. The game is getting such good buzz from the people who are playing it, I expect that word of mouth advertising should help generate more purchases.
I wonder if this will cause a spike in wii hardware sales? If the japanese hardcore haven't bought into the wii yet, maybe this game can bring some of them over. In the USA, I think zelda instantly created a hardcore market at launch, and you can probably expect most of those people to buy galaxy, but I'm not sure about japan.
I wonder if this will cause a spike in wii hardware sales? If the japanese hardcore haven't bought into the wii yet, maybe this game can bring some of them over. In the USA, I think zelda instantly created a hardcore market at launch, and you can probably expect most of those people to buy galaxy, but I'm not sure about japan.
DefectiveReject said:
:lol
Notorious_Roy said:
If you don't like how it's done, do it yourself. If you can't be bothered, then don't post complaining about how others do it.
Amir0x said:
:lol
Great Rumbler said:
Brain Training 2, New Super Mario Bros., and Pokemon had monster opening weeks.
Danne-Danger said:
Brawl is in late January. Maybe Mario & Sonic at the Olympics in December, but that could swing toward the "that whole genre" part of your statement.
Jcgamer60 said:
I hope Wii Fit rockets to orbit, but I also wish the same thing for Super Mario Galaxy. There are people out there who will buy both, you know.
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
If it sells less than Super Mario 64, I'm not going to be completely happy with its sales.
SovanJedi said:
We'll see first week numbers next Wednesday. There's usually nothing solid given between the first day sales and the first week sales. We might get a "sold strongly through the weekend" or some other qualitative measurement, though.
As for Super Mario Galaxy's first day sales, I'm disappointed. I think anyone who even partially bought into the comparison to NSMB would be. It's certainly possible for it to sell 1 million by the end of the year, but I wouldn't consider it a foregone conclusion. Blame Nintendo for not advertising, blame Wii owners for not being hardcore enough, whatever. I'm just disappointed that Super Mario Galaxy didn't open with more sales.
Here's hoping for legs! :lol
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Stumpokapow said:
DS. That wasn't hard.
Mario a very important franchise but 3D Mario is a long way from Nintendo's most important at the moment. It matters hugely to many hardcore gamers but it's going to have to earn its place with the mass market. From the recent sales I'd say the hierarchy in terms of Nintendo's internal development priorities is:The Experiment said:
Wii .... titles (Sports/Fit/Music/etc)
Nintendogs (or pet nuturing equivalent)
Brain Training and other non games
Pokémon main titles
2D Mario
Smash Bros.
Animal Crossing
Mario Kart
3D Mario
Zelda
Yeah, it's certainly a dilemma.Stumpokapow said:
There is an element of reinvigoration in the handheld market due to DS so several niche hardcore titles have sold well on the system, but this isn't happening on Wii despite its installed base, and obviously PS3 and 360 are irrelevant at the moment and have higher dev costs.
I think the best bet is to bank on DS and wait it out, then approach the system with the biggest user base, probably Wii. From what Nintendo said at their policy briefing Q&A it sounds like there is a plan for Wii to be around for a very long time, I'd guess another 5-8 years, so in a couple of years it could have a large enough installed base around the world to help many Japanese publishers/developers.
Yep.DeaconKnowledge said:
if the wii __-only buyers aren't buying many other games, then getting stronger "hardcore gamer" representation on the platform is really important for nintendo. they *do* seem to be blowing the "we're for the hardcore too" horn a bit more strongly of late.Phife Dawg said:
a someone who did practically all of my last-gen gaming on the ps2, and have an extensive collection of quirky japanese stuff and rpgs - this gen is starting to give me some serious concerns too. i'd surely be getting the fear if i were making big decisions regarding console development for a japanese company.Jonnyram said:
it'll be interesting to see how disgaea does on the ps3, which is looking more and more like the only real go-to option with a potentially solid market for these type of games. there isn't *any* console that has proven that they can support these games yet this gen.ethelred said:
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
donny2112 said:
I don't think ANYONE thought it would sell 900k first week. I know that I personally had expected around 500k, and obviously that's not going to be possible at this point, so in a sense I'm disappointed... but I really do not think this is an epic bomb.
I personally do feel that it is a forgone conclusion that it will reach 1 million by the end of the holiday season (IE including the first two weeks in January as well). Mainly because unless sales tank catastrophically year over year, there aren't many other tentpole releases. Wii Fit, SMG, and what else? DS has Mario Party... PS2, PS3, and 360 have nothing of substance. The new SRW is megatanking.
MGS4, DMC4, and Brawl are (after Wii Fit) the next nontrivial console games. I don't see how we could see anything other than Galaxy having strong legs.
DeaconKnowledge said:
Well, no shit that the DS is a good option; but do you seriously believe that it's sufficient in terms of revenue to supplant the PS2? Consider that the 5040yen pricepoint is substantially lower than most PS2 releases, and given the graphical fidelity of NI games, I highly doubt the DS budget is substantially lower
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Stumpokapow said:I don't think ANYONE thought it would sell 900k first week. I know that I personally had expected around 500k, and obviously that's not going to be possible at this point, so in a sense I'm disappointed... but I really do not think this is an epic bomb.
I personally do feel that it is a forgone conclusion that it will reach 1 million by the end of the holiday season (IE including the first two weeks in January as well). Mainly because unless sales tank catastrophically year over year, there aren't many other tentpole releases. Wii Fit, SMG, and what else? DS has Mario Party... PS2, PS3, and 360 have nothing of substance. The new SRW is megatanking.
MGS4, DMC4, and Brawl are (after Wii Fit) the next nontrivial console games. I don't see how we could see anything other than Galaxy having strong legs.
Well, no shit that the DS is a good option; but do you seriously believe that it's sufficient in terms of revenue to supplant the PS2? Consider that the 5040yen pricepoint is substantially lower than most PS2 releases, and given the graphical fidelity of NI games, I highly doubt the DS budget is substantially lower
I would wager that the development costs for PS2 development alone are greater than the disadvantages of development for DS.
In fact, a fellow I talked to over at NI America pretty much said PSP development was a natural extension for them because the platform is so similar to the PS2 as far as resources and dev costs. The profits are so razor thin that it was one of the only options available at the time.
Stumpokapow said:
I didn't, either. I did think that New Super Mario Bros. would've put Mario back into enough people's minds to at least sell most of the 700K the first week. 500-600K would've been more expected to me. There's an outside chance that it could still reach 500K for the first week, but I don't consider that a reasonable expectation.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
They started strong, but still weren't really front-loaded, though. They're still going, but so far Pokémon D/P has more than tripled its first week, NSMB has sextupled it, and Brain Age 2... uhh, I'm not sure what the word is for eleven-times-ing it.donny2112 said: