Dragona Akehi
Retired
so i see that nintendo is doomed again
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Media Create Sales 10/22 - 10/28 2007
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Yup. I gave my Wii first thing this morning to a man sleeping in a cardboard pile outside my apartment. He asked what he was supposed to do with a Wii when he has no home so I told him to wait a few weeks and make a house out of unsold Mario Galaxies.Dragona Akehi said:
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Segata Sanshiro said:
now that is proactive thinking!
Great Rumbler
Member
130,000 is bad for day one now? I mean, really, have you guys not been paying any attention to games like Wii Sports, Wii Play, Animal Crossing, Brain Training 1&2, Mario Kart DS, Tetris, New Super Mario Bros., ect., ect.?
Really?
Really?
Zombie James
Banned
Woah, this thread exploded. About SMG, didn't I read something a few weeks ago about there being 700K+ pre-orders?
First Children
Member
It looks to me like Nintendo is pushing its marketing where it matters more, Wii Sports and Wii Fit, and let good games like Metroid and Mario Galaxy do mediocre numbers with hardcore gamers alone..
Great Rumbler
Member
Kildace said:
Because people had ridiculously high expecations.
Actually, when we the last time that a major Nintendo game in Japan was really frontloaded? All the multi-million sellers I can think of started around 300k-500k, or even less, on opening week and then just stayed in the charts for years.
Great Rumbler said:
And I don't think that it was unreasonable to have extremely high expectations about the first day sales of Nintendo's flagship franchise coming out on a platform with a userbase over 4.5M strong. I certainly expected at least 300k for the first day. It's freaking Mario!
KeithFranklin
Banned
Dont think there is anything wrong with SMG sales numbers. Just the expectations were nuts. So many just assumed that this new demographic that is purchasing a Wii for WiiSports and WiiPlay, etc. would all of a sudden become Mario fans. Some of them will eventually find it some of them will just have the Wii end up in the closet. WiiFit will come and another new demographic may latch on to the Wii, but that doesnt mean they will look to purchase SMG or any other traditional game (or many other games for that matter). SMG will sell to the traditional Nintendo gamers very heavily and do well in that regard.
Great Rumbler
Member
Kildace said:
SMG is going to sell in the top 20, probably top 10, through the rest of this year.
Also, it's probably going to have the biggest opening week of any Wii game so far.
BishopLamont
Banned
Nolan. said:
Then Nintendo is doomed.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Nolan. said:
Sales prediction is like weather prediction. You use empirical data, past predictions, and intuition to project what will happen... and for every legit meteorologist, there are 25 local weather guys who steal content from others and have no idea what the fuck they're doing.
Mario not having any legs would be the equivalent of a Category 5 Hurricane hitting Colorado in the middle of the winter. There's no possible way anyone could have predicted it, because it makes no sense.
Stumpokapow said:
I completely agree with you though I just feel like some people are moving on from what was about a week ago with expectations of high numbers going from that to long legs. I'm almost certain it will have legs. Though I don't see why some people are discrediting the expectations some had in terms of launch numbers for the game as if it was out there but anyway to reiterate it is just a day.
KeithFranklin
Banned
Nolan. said:
Then the Wii is truly selling to a new crowd.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Not that it was front loaded, but I think if you try hard to remember, you'll finding poking into your memory one New Super Mario Bros., which quite exceeded the 300k-500k range for its first week.Great Rumbler said:
We also have no guarantees SMG is going to reach 300k for first week. I'd say that's a slightly optimistic estimate at this point, but only slightly.
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
Great Rumbler said:
Much depends from how it will perform during the entire week. if it manages to reach at least 300k, then I think that it has big chances to reach the million and we can then definitely say it's not a bomb. But if it perform like Twilight Princess did, I think that Nintendo should start to be worried even about Smash Bros. and Mario Kart and ALL hardcore games.
Is Wii a casual-only console ? That's the big question. Twilight Princess was the first signal, but I ignored it a little bit after Dragon Quest Swords, who sold quite well for a spin-off and it is definitely not a casual game. Mario Party 8 has made my convinctions even stronger, even if it is very casual-oriented (not not only).
But then, Wii went down for no reason apparently. Mario Strikers came out and it bombed. Mario Galaxy is a big test and it doesn't seem that has been fulfilled.
But we'll see next week. Maybe we're really overreacting.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Nolan. said:
I think one of the fundamental failings with GAF is tending to care about the aggregate GAF opinion rather than the educated GAF opinion. I know when I participate in sales threads, I value people like Joshua, donny, jjjj, ethel, cvx, Cheese, and many others who have credibility in terms of their knowledge base, basic statistical reasoning, etc.
I think if you listen only listen to the reasonable people, you'll find that amount of "OMG UNEXPECTED" falls rapidly.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jcgamer60 said:
470k at last appearance but likely over 500k now.
Mithos Yggdrasill said:
I don't think Nintendo will worry and thats my worry. If it did less than it's predecessors I figure nintendo will just feel like their focus on the causal games they have broken out with will be justified. Twilight Princess didn't do that bad though I didn't think.
I have to say this is probably the funniest and saddest thread I've seen in a while.
It went from
average SMG prediction of around 400k first day -> joking around that SMG will bomb and making fun of people that thought it was serious -> SMG selling 130 k -> massive damage control -> the death of hardcore gaming in japan -> 130K for a flagship title for the most popular console in Japan are actually good numbers
Sad part is that SMG bombed. Hopefully it'll have legs and bring it back to respectibility cause this game is suppose to sell multi-million, bring the hardcore games to the Wii, make Wii completely supply constraint. Being happy with beating just SMS is sad considering the Wii is the market leader in Japan while both the PS3 and 360 is dead. This is like expecting Michael Jordan and getting Sam Bowie instead. Now lets hope it at least becomes an Emet Okur.
Japan been pissing me off for months, and I willing to bet they'll piss me off even more with Wii Fit and its 2 million sold in a month and make Wii completely supply constrainted.
It went from
average SMG prediction of around 400k first day -> joking around that SMG will bomb and making fun of people that thought it was serious -> SMG selling 130 k -> massive damage control -> the death of hardcore gaming in japan -> 130K for a flagship title for the most popular console in Japan are actually good numbers
Sad part is that SMG bombed. Hopefully it'll have legs and bring it back to respectibility cause this game is suppose to sell multi-million, bring the hardcore games to the Wii, make Wii completely supply constraint. Being happy with beating just SMS is sad considering the Wii is the market leader in Japan while both the PS3 and 360 is dead. This is like expecting Michael Jordan and getting Sam Bowie instead. Now lets hope it at least becomes an Emet Okur.
Japan been pissing me off for months, and I willing to bet they'll piss me off even more with Wii Fit and its 2 million sold in a month and make Wii completely supply constrainted.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
130k first day is a bomb?
ccbfan said:
The game hasn't bombed we don't know what it will sell for the rest of the week. I don't think the ps3 is as dead as some are making it out just yet anyway. Also lastly was smg ever in famitsu's top 10 because I can't seem to remember it (like famitsu list mean anything anyway out of the top 2).
Segata Sanshiro
Member
It's pretty disappointing, in spite of various spin attempts happening here.DeaconKnowledge said:
DefectiveReject
Banned
So if Mario galaxy sells 500,000 this week and continues posting 25,000 a week for months............?ccbfan said:
Also lets see what happens this weekend, we all know the Mario crowd aren't hardcore, and that anyone picking up a new Wii will probably be picking up Galaxy with it, once word of mouth, and advertsements hit.
And you're declaring the games has bombed after one days sales??
i got a little upset bt i'm content in the knowledge the game will have legs.
And anyway the US and European sales will be huge!
Magicpaint
Member
Don't know if it's a bomb, but definitely not cheer-worthy, that's for sure.DeaconKnowledge said:
DeaconKnowledge
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
Disappointing to be sure, but i'd hardly call it a bomb.
DefectiveReject
Banned
Nintendo games in the main get their sales at the weekend, and 1st party games have LEGS.Nolan. said:
Also with the holidays coming up this game will sell by the bucket load as Nintendo actually start pushing the game!
I'm really shocked and disappointed with the sales of SMG. Hopefully long term sales will look much better.
With Nintendo's BIG budget games (Mario, Metroid, and Zelda) selling below expectations while simplistic waggle productions sell in the millions, I'm beginning to worry that they will focus even less on creating content for fans of traditional games. Metroid Prime 3 completely destroys everything else on the system, yet it couldn't even come close to matching the sales of garbage mini game collections. Hopefully Mario does not suffer the same fate.
It seems that traditional games still have a place on Nintendo DS, but they just don't seem to do as well on Wii. :\
With Nintendo's BIG budget games (Mario, Metroid, and Zelda) selling below expectations while simplistic waggle productions sell in the millions, I'm beginning to worry that they will focus even less on creating content for fans of traditional games. Metroid Prime 3 completely destroys everything else on the system, yet it couldn't even come close to matching the sales of garbage mini game collections. Hopefully Mario does not suffer the same fate.
It seems that traditional games still have a place on Nintendo DS, but they just don't seem to do as well on Wii. :\
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
farnham said:
Yeah, I think that the problem is the following one: hardcore gamers that had intention to buy a Wii did it last year, when Twilight Princess came out. Let say these guys are 500k.
For the rest fo the year, outside Dragon Quest Swords, not a single big hardcore game came out. Let say that the population of hardcore grew to 700k. Who bought a Wii, bought it for Wii Sports. Mario Party 8 helped this too. But, a lot of time passed and for hardcore gamers, nothing came out: this means that they have done one of the following thing: 1) Sold the console. 2) Waiting for Mario Galaxy.
Now, hardcore gamers are coming out from a "sleeping period". This means that the Wii's audience is not as ready to buy games as PSP or DS are. The bad marketing of Nintendo increase this phenomenon.
Two things can happen: Mario Galaxy bombs (in the sense that it sell less then Super Mario Sunshine). This is due because Nintendo has waited too much to make their hardcore fanbase active and strong and during time, only the casual crown remained, that has bought the console, but it has already been forgotten. This means: not attention to new games.
Second possibility: Mario Galaxy will not bomb, but it will require time to be noted. And this is what's most likely for me. Simply the game hasn't been hyped enough and now it is selling slowly. This convinction comes also by the fact, that Mario is not only for hardcore, but for everyone (this is one of the biggest strentghs of the Mario franchise). But if hardcore gamers buy a game the first day, casual games do it when they have time.
This is not so weird, considering that not everyone has the time to get a game at the first day, most of all, again, if the audience is casual.
dark10x said:
Yeah. I'm worried too. But it is a thing that has been introduced with DS, but degenerated with Wii. After all, DS has been really teh promised land for many classic games that were in decline: Kirby, Mario (somehow), Zelda, Phoenix Wright and many more.
Wii, in contrast, is good only for non-games it seems. this can be change with a massive marketing campaign, that Nintendo is NOT doing.
Chû Totoro
Member
300k first week and 500 000 before 2008 seems good for me.
And you know wii sports was 170k in two days IIRC.
And you know wii sports was 170k in two days IIRC.
I can't imagine Nintendo scrapping those franchises, of course, but one has to wonder if they'll be willing to spend as much time and money creating new installments in each franchise. You know what I'm saying? Consider how much time went into the creation of Zelda TP and Mario Galaxy. Clearly those games required larger budgets, a larger staff, and more time to complete. What good does it do Nintendo to focus on such productions when they can cheaply create simplistic content that will sell at a higher volume? I'd say it's pretty unlikely that they would take this approach, but it's not as if it doesn't make sense.farnham said:
Opus Angelorum
Member
In a country with over 3 million Wii consoles, how can anyway say 130,000 first day sales for a game as big as SMG is good?
Yes, it will have legs but I find this number quite unbelievable.
Yes, it will have legs but I find this number quite unbelievable.
BishopLamont
Banned
SMG and bomb, I thought I'd never see that. First day numbers are a bit disappointing but I'd hardly call it a bomb.
Danne-Danger
Member
dark10x said:
Speaking of which, what is the next heavy hitter set for Japan on Wii? Apart from Wii-Fit and that whole genre.