Support NeoGAF

[BishopLamont]

Yeah, if I'm a 3rd party..where the hell do I go? Not the 360. Possibly gamble on the PS3, though that doesn't seem wise. Wii? Big install base, weak "traditional" game sales.

Looks like PS2 and DS to me (with some PSP sprinkled in).

DS, PS2, while trying to hit it big with a new IP on the Wii. Something is bound to hit the Wii at the calibre of Wii Sports for the hardcore. Believe.

 

[Hammer24]

If you like Japanese games and have issues with portables, now is an appropriate time to start panicking.

But wouldn´t that be like a steak-with-beans loving vegetarian with a bad beans allergy?

 

[Dragon]

...Yes, that is what the topic at hand is about. Have you read the thread? Or even the last few posts?

Nope. I like being ignorant and causing trouble. Is that what you're going for? I'll learn to stay out of these threads when things go poorly for a game .

 

[ethelred]

You're shitting me. In almost every Opoona thread I've read about how the Japanese are really excited about the game etc. 3k?!

What? :lol Please point me to something, anything, indicating Japanese excitement about Opoona.

 

[charlequin]

So, once again, what have we learned?

* The Wii is built on a market of casual gamers without a matching set of hardcore purchasers to drive core-gamer software
* The X360 can put up good numbers whenever a piece of desirable software shows up on it
* The PS3 is still in a funk
* Handheld gaming 4eva <3

The problem is that Nintendo fans believed their own delusions that the Wii and DS were the same machines that would deliver similar performances.

No, the problem is Nintendo. With GBA->DS they had the market in the bag -- just keep releasing their GBA franchises, let 3rd parties continue to release their franchises, supplement with nongames, and everything would be alright. On Wii there are no core gaming franchises to carry over. About eight real core games have been released during the console's entire lifespan and none of them are system sellers. To reproduce the success of the DS, it's important to have more software for every consumer than this.

This isn't just a Nintendo fan problem, though. The lead console is not bringing sales. Neither are the other two. If you like Japanese games and have issues with portables, now is an appropriate time to start panicking.

Well: there's always X360. :lol

There's a chance it could outsell Mario Sunshine due to the time of the year it has been released. Wow, great victory.

Let's not go out on a limb here just because most of the thread is paddling in the Nile. I don't think we can really quantify the legs on SMG until we've seen a week or two of them. I do expect the DS' sales-lengthening effect to come into play here, and I think notably higher than Sunshine LTD sales are possible (though, in honesty, notably lower sales are still possible too.)

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Hardware's numbers are the explication: why are they so low ? Because hardcore gamers were supposed to buy a Wii with Mario Galaxy. They haven't and this has conseguences on hardware and software sales.

And these numbers prove once again that Wii hardcore userbase is smaller the Gamecube fanbase. Definitely.

The question is WTF isn't the hardcore buying Galaxy. Why not ? The decline of the console market in Japan continues, but only in the sense that the hardcore fanbase is declining. Casual grew up very well.

Shortly, I don't see a bright future for typical hardcore games. Even Super Smash Bros is in danger in Japan.

 

[Grecco]

Shortly, I don't see a bright future for typical hardcore games. Even Super Smash Bros is in danger in Japan.

Based on what exactly? Crappy Mario Sales

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

A) The bump to 100K came during the shortage times when they were regularly at 60-70K anyway.
B) As the first Dragon Quest/Square-Enix game on the system it was attracting a significantly different slice of audience.

SMG isn't exploding, but this is too far in the opposite direction; it's not like DS had had better openings by this point in its life. Through the beginning of November 2005, the biggest DS opening was Mario Kart DS at 224K (Famitsu). Though it was not far from having a 335K week for Animal Crossing in late November and a 416K week for Brain Age 2 in late December. Even to present day, there are but 10 DS games with bigger first weeks.

EDIT: Oops, I misread month and day, so Mario Kart DS hadn't launched yet. The actual biggest first week through early November 2005 for DS was... Jump Super Stars at 202K, I think?

This is interesting. So, we are overreacting, aren't we ?

Based on what exactly? Crappy Mario Sales

Just a bad impression.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I'm comfortable out on my limb. I was optimistic and had faith in Zelda: TP after its soft opening, and that went nowhere. Super Mario Galaxy won't be getting the same favour from me.

At least this destroys the theory that only the Nintendo faithful were buying Wiis. Heck, seems like most of them decided to sit pretty with their DSs.

 

[Weisheit]

So, once again, what have we learned?

* The Wii is built on a market of casual gamers without a matching set of hardcore purchasers to drive core-gamer software
* The X360 can put up good numbers whenever a piece of desirable software shows up on it
* The PS3 is still in a funk
* Handheld gaming 4eva <3




No, the problem is Nintendo. With GBA->DS they had the market in the bag -- just keep releasing their GBA franchises, let 3rd parties continue to release their franchises, supplement with nongames, and everything would be alright. On Wii there are no core gaming franchises to carry over. About eight real core games have been released during the console's entire lifespan and none of them are system sellers. To reproduce the success of the DS, it's important to have more software for every consumer than this.



Well: there's always X360. :lol



Let's not go out on a limb here just because most of the thread is paddling in the Nile. I don't think we can really quantify the legs on SMG until we've seen a week or two of them. I do expect the DS' sales-lengthening effect to come into play here, and I think notably higher than Sunshine LTD sales are possible (though, in honesty, notably lower sales are still possible too.)

Huh...there only "good" because the 360 userbase is so tiny, 3rd parties still aren't making any money from 360 sales in Japan.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Agreed. I wonder if it has to do with how Nintendo positioned the two systems. It wasn't like the DS was a massive success off the bat. Nintendo positioned it as a hardcore portable system and then gradually introduced casual games to the system, while still maintaining a decent hardcore balanced lineup. With the Wii Nintendo has gone entirely casual from the start, nearly completely ignoring the hardcore. This could be a problem as it looks like casual gamers are not interested in buying many titles. And the hardcore will stick with the DS (with now some shift to PSP) until Nintendo decides to acknowledge them on the Wii.

I agree, the Dynamic that they used for the DS would have been preferable if they wanted to aim for massive 3rd party sales and sales of the hardcore Nintendo franchises. With the DS the console had a port of a Nintendo 64 game, and was marketed towards the hardcore gamer. Then once they started to corner the hardcore gamers, they targeted casuals. This is the main reason why games like Gyakuten Saiban 4 sold half a million copies compared to the original GBA games that sold 250k at MOST. They kept the hardcore gamers and expanded the market to target the casuals.

The Wii is another story, they launched with Zelda: TP, but the main target of sales was Wii sports. From the outset they aimed for the casual gamers, without getting the hardcore gamers in lock in key. The big twist of it all is that the PS2 fans are not migrating to the Wii's rival consoles, but on the handheld consoles. It is this group of people that has a large mix of what we consider hardcore gamers. Now one year later we see the fruits of Nintendo's neglect of core gamers with the abysmal 3rd party sales (when the cube already had 3rd party games sell 250k at this hardware LTD) and the poor sales of the core franchises like Zelda and Mario.

This makes for an interesting case study, and I certainly hope Nintendo is taking notes so that they would be much more successful next generation. The Wii and the DS proves a perfect point that most of us tried to reiterate; Hardcore gamers are who you target your console to in the first 2 years, casual gamers comes second, and non-gamers come third. Not the other way around.

 

[Grecco]

Just a bad impression.

Smash is bigger than the Mario plataformers. It wont do this badly. If it does then Japan gaming is truely dead.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

A) The bump to 100K came during the shortage times when they were regularly at 60-70K anyway.
B) As the first Dragon Quest/Square-Enix game on the system it was attracting a significantly different slice of audience.

SMG isn't exploding, but this is too far in the opposite direction; it's not like DS had had better openings by this point in its life. Through the beginning of November 2005, the biggest DS opening was Mario Kart DS at 224K (Famitsu). Though it was not far from having a 335K week for Animal Crossing in late November and a 416K week for Brain Age 2 in late December. Even to present day, there are but 10 DS games with bigger first weeks.

EDIT: Oops, I misread month and day, so Mario Kart DS hadn't launched yet. The actual biggest first week through early November 2005 for DS was... Jump Super Stars at 202K, I think?

We don't want to bury the poor bastard yet, but a bad trend is forming. And while there are only 10 DS games with bigger first weeks, just try to name 10 possible Wii games with more potential than Mario had.

 

[plagiarize]

With GBA->DS they had the market in the bag -- just keep releasing their GBA franchises, let 3rd parties continue to release their franchises, supplement with nongames, and everything would be alright.

this stupidity again. no they didn't. also, read Joshua's post.

DS didn't have an opening week this big at this stage in its life.

 

[plagiarize]

We don't want to bury the poor bastard yet, but a bad trend is forming. And while there are only 10 DS games with bigger first weeks, just try to name 10 possible Wii games with more potential than Mario had.

Mario Party 9, Mario Party 10, Mario Party 11, Mario Party 12...

i'm only semi joking.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

No, the problem is Nintendo. With GBA->DS they had the market in the bag -- just keep releasing their GBA franchises, let 3rd parties continue to release their franchises, supplement with nongames, and everything would be alright. On Wii there are no core gaming franchises to carry over. About eight real core games have been released during the console's entire lifespan and none of them are system sellers. To reproduce the success of the DS, it's important to have more software for every consumer than this.

It is not only that.

Nintendo has a big casual userbase that represents a big potential for the software. The problem is that Nintendo has to commercialise the software so that people know that something has arrived in the stores. They still think that a game like Mario or zelda can sell without marketing but it is FALSE, because Wii's users don't know Mario as well as Gamecube's users did, because they aren't fanboy that know when the game comes out.

Marketing: this is the big problem.

 

[charlequin]

Mm-hmm. It's time to start getting used to the idea of jRPGs on handhelds, if you aren't already.

Everyone should get used to the idea of chocolate and peanut butter together too.

 

[Evlar]

this stupidity again. no they didn't. also, read Joshua's post.

DS didn't have an opening week this big at this stage in its life.

Animal Crossing was just around the corner... Didn't it have a bigger first week?

 

[plagiarize]

It is not only that.

Nintendo has a big casual userbase that represents a big potential for the software. The problem is that Nintendo has to commercialise the software so that people know that something has arrived in the stores. They still think that a game like Mario or zelda can sell without marketing but it is FALSE, because Wii's users don't know Mario as well as Gamecube's users did, because they aren't fanboy that know when the game comes out.

Marketing: this is the big problem.

that's very true.

how long was it on the DS before we had the first big selling core game? Nintendogs and Brain Age were the ones that took off, and it took a while before we saw any signs that these new gamers were transitioning over to more traditional titles.

Animal Crossing was just around the corner... Didn't it have a bigger first week?

wouldn't smash brothers have had a bigger first week soon if it hadn't been delayed?

there's no question that Japan doesn't have a healthy number of core gamers in the wii's userbase at this point, and that nintendo need to do more to fix that, but these notions that since Mario Galaxy couldn't do it, nothing else will be able to, are short sighted and frankly daft.

 

[Kildace]

It is not only that.

Nintendo has a big casual userbase that represents a big potential for the software. The problem is that Nintendo has to commercialise the software so that people know that something has arrived in the stores. They still think that a game like Mario or zelda can sell without marketing but it is FALSE, because Wii's users don't know Mario as well as Gamecube's users did, because they aren't fanboy that know when the game comes out.

Marketing: this is the big problem.

Didn't people say that there were 6 different adverts in rotation + in store promotion for SMG? I don't live in Japan so I wouldn't know.

 

[Error]

japan doesnt give a shit about consoles anymore.

 

[ziran]

Another great thread. Really, very entertaining :lol

SMG's sales are potentially worrying, but, as the reasonable posters are saying, it is still early and this game has been getting a huge amount of praise which could pull in some hardcore gamers. Also, it's really too early to say what the effects of SMG's any-gamer, EAD genius developer, -ness, are going to be. The game obviously needs good word of mouth amongst the casual players, which may or may not happen. It may be the case 3D Mario ends up being as limited as TP in Japan, though I really expect (and hope) it sells at least over a million when all said and done. Still, worst case scenario, it's going to encourage Nintendo to create a new 2D Mario on Wii, and I love NSMB, so this would be awesome!

Really though, it seems traditional gaming is dying on home consoles...

Relatively speaking, it's selling poorly on Wii, like shit on PS3 and is in non event territory on 360, and those HD systems have the added burden of ridiculously high dev costs, so need an increase in sales over previous instalments far more than Wii does. It's really quite serious if that's the only thing you like. Happiliy, I love what Nintendo is creating with titles like Nintendogs, Brain Training, Wii Sports, etc, so the Japanese market is doing nicely as far as I'm concerned

Bring on Wii Fit

 

[Pureauthor]

Everyone should get used to the idea of chocolate and peanut butter together too.

I assume you like chocolate and peanut butter together.

 

[Tyrannical]

There are some things I don't understand:

How the hell did Ace Combat 6 succeed where Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, and Eternal Sonata failed?

250k first week for Mario? In Japan 2D Mario > 3D Mario, yes, but wow, that is surprisingly underwhelming.

If you add it all up, there is a decent sized JP friendly 360 library. At some point there just might be enough games, and the 360 is cheap enough that people start to pick it up. Still third place in the end, but maybe not so patheticaly this time.

SMG? It'll sell steady for years to come. As people buy Wiis over the years, I'm sure at least 10% of those would eventualy buy it. I hear it's not another sunshine, and Mario64 sold for as long as they made N64s.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I assume you like chocolate and peanut butter together.

Handheld RPGs are better than chocolate and peanut butter.

They're more like beer and nachos IMO.

 

[tanod]

Wasn't it last week or the week before that Enterbrain had the PS3 and 360 at about 7,000 when MC had the 360 at about 4,000 and the PS3 at something above 10,000?

EDIT: That was the week of 10-14-07.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Didn't people say that there were 6 different adverts in rotation + in store promotion for SMG? I don't live in Japan so I wouldn't know.

And when ? Two or three days before it shipped to stores. Nintendo has to learn something from Microsoft with Halo 3 or Sony with PSP Slim and FFCC VII.

They have the money right now. Where is the problem ?

 

[Jonnyram]

This is a thread about sales. Playing the "Quality vs Sales" card doesn't hold a lot of water, I'm afraid.

 

[BishopLamont]

I agree, the Dynamic that they used for the DS would have been preferable if they wanted to aim for massive 3rd party sales and sales of the hardcore Nintendo franchises. With the DS the console had a port of a Nintendo 64 game, and was marketed towards the hardcore gamer. Then once they started to corner the hardcore gamers, they targeted casuals. This is the main reason why games like Gyakuten Saiban 4 sold half a million copies compared to the original GBA games that sold 250k at MOST. They kept the hardcore gamers and expanded the market to target the casuals.

The Wii is another story, they launched with Zelda: TP, but the main target of sales was Wii sports. From the outset they aimed for the casual gamers, without getting the hardcore gamers in lock in key. The big twist of it all is that the PS2 fans are not migrating to the Wii's rival consoles, but on the handheld consoles. It is this group of people that has a large mix of what we consider hardcore gamers. Now one year later we see the fruits of Nintendo's neglect of core gamers with the abysmal 3rd party sales (when the cube already had 3rd party games sell 250k at this hardware LTD) and the poor sales of the core franchises like Zelda and Mario.

This makes for an interesting case study, and I certainly hope Nintendo is taking notes so that they would be much more successful next generation. The Wii and the DS proves a perfect point that most of us tried to reiterate; Hardcore gamers are who you target your console to in the first 2 years, casual gamers comes second, and non-gamers come third. Not the other way around.

Nintendogs and Brain training propelled the DS though, not hardcore games. So in reality it's casual first, hardcore second that made the DS into the phenomenon it is today. It's really a icky situation to compare the DS with the Wii. The Wii is competing not with only the PS3/360 but also with the DS, since that's where the gamers are shopping and it's this gen's "PS2".

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The problem is that Nintendo fans believed their own delusions that the Wii and DS were the same machines that would deliver similar performances.

So to re-reply to this in a larger way...

DS openings over 100K, through anything with an early November 2005 release date. As says Famitsu through J-GC.

Jump Super Stars: 202K
Nintendogs: 136K
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon Blue: 135K
SM64DS: 120K
WarioWare Touched: 118K
Tamagotchi: 107K


Wii openings over 100K to date

Dragon Quest Swords: 302K
Mario Party 8: 282K
Super Mario Galaxy: 256K
Wii Sports: 177K
Wii Play: 172K
Super Paper Mario: 156K
Twilight Princess: 145K


Since the advantage of the GBA->DS transition has been brought up, I'll give GBA's first 11 months, too. So this is 100K openings through anything with an early February 2002 release date.

Mario Kart Super Circuit: 262K
Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters 5 Expert 1: 222K
Super Mario Advance: 220K
Super Robot Taisen A: 161K
Tactics Ogre TKOL: 145K
Yu-Gi-Oh! Duel Monsters 6 Expert 2: 140K
Golden Sun: 129K
F-Zero Maximum Velocity: 116K
Super Mario Advance 2: 113K
Wario Land 4: 103K

The J-GC GBA chart ends with the LTDs around 240K, so it's possible there are some more early games that had 100+K opening weeks but aren't on this list.

We don't want to bury the poor bastard yet, but a bad trend is forming. And while there are only 10 DS games with bigger first weeks, just try to name 10 possible Wii games with more potential than Mario had.

Most of the DS games on the list will probably have Wii equivalents. For the Brain Ages there are the Wii Sports/Play/Music/Fit titles. More FF and Dragon Quest-related games are on the way to Wii. Animal Crossing might be big though it's hard to imagine it matching its portable version. As far as the DS games with bigger openings, that leaves: Pokémon D/P, Pokémon Mysterious Dungeon, Zelda Phantom Hourglass, and New Super Mario Bros.

 

[ethelred]

· ethelred should be happy that Famitsu is correcting their Kyotaro's numbers

I am pleased to see that, yes! Very great success for Tecmo here, and it's nice to see Famitsu finally moving in line with what MC was reporting.

· FFTA2 does below FFTA 2nd week too, barely above FFTPSP 2nd week (not enough to get above it LTD)

Yup. Disappointment abounds.

· Koei should be with Wii....yeah

If I were them, I'd vacate this console post haste.

It is not only that.

Nintendo has a big casual userbase that represents a big potential for the software. The problem is that Nintendo has to commercialise the software so that people know that something has arrived in the stores. They still think that a game like Mario or zelda can sell without marketing but it is FALSE, because Wii's users don't know Mario as well as Gamecube's users did, because they aren't fanboy that know when the game comes out.

Marketing: this is the big problem.

No, marketing is not the big problem. The lack of compelling software for traditional gamers in the broader Japanese market is the problem. Look, what Segs and Charlie highlighted is exactly right -- the DS's successful sales foundation was built upon its ability to appeal to three core demographics: the casual (and ex) gamers who found the interesting new types of software appealing; the Nintendo gamers, who were enthused by their same old Nintendo franchises; and gamers, who were appealed to by way of all the other great and promising stuff for the DS (Square Enix's heavy support, Jump, the adventure games, and so on et cetera).

This has not been the case with the Wii, which was pushed from day one to the casual gamers above all else. From its presentation (TGS, E3 07, Nintendo's various shows) to its game lineup, that's all Nintendo has stressed, getting those casual gamers. At some point they panicked and realized they needed the Ngamers, too, which is why we're seeing Mario Party, Mario Kart, Mario Strikers, Mario Stadium, Mario the Doctor, and Mario at the Olympics... but even then, they've failed to reach out and appeal to gamers writ large, and as far as a leading console goes, that'll be their undoing. Nintendo hasn't even made the slightest effort to rope in (via games) the people that made PS2 software successful.

And this is Nintendo's problem. They didn't make the right incentives (whether monetary or otherwise) to bring third parties on from the start to make the games they couldn't make and have them there during this critical first year period, and they didn't make any effort to broaden out their own software development efforts -- despite the fact that they had all the time in the world (a good two years as lead time) and the easiest developmental platform available (one using all but identical programming structures to their last console). Man, it's amazing how Sony gave them the absolute most perfect opportunity when they priced the natural successor to the PS2 out of the market, but Nintendo just couldn't follow through by providing the games that would make people want to jump in.

Oh well. Too bad, so sad.

 

[Evlar]

No, marketing is not the big problem. The lack of compelling software for traditional gamers in the broader Japanese market is the problem. Look, what Segs and Charlie highlighted is exactly right -- the DS's successful sales foundation was built upon its ability to appeal to three core demographics: the casual (and ex) gamers who found the interesting new types of software appealing; the Nintendo gamers, who were enthused by their same old Nintendo franchises; and gamers, who were appealed to by way of all the other great and promising stuff for the DS (Square Enix's heavy support, Jump, the adventure games, and so on et cetera).

This has not been the case with the Wii, which was pushed from day one to the casual gamers above all else. From its presentation (TGS, E3 07, Nintendo's various shows) to its game lineup, that's all Nintendo has stressed, getting those casual gamers. At some point they panicked and realized they needed the Ngamers, too, which is why we're seeing Mario Party, Mario Kart, Mario Strikers, Mario Stadium, Mario the Doctor, and Mario at the Olympics... but even then, they've failed to reach out and appeal to gamers writ large, and as far as a leading console goes, that'll be their undoing. Nintendo hasn't even made the slightest effort to rope in (via games) the people that made PS2 software successful.

And this is Nintendo's problem. They didn't make the right incentives (whether monetary or otherwise) to bring third parties on from the start to make the games they couldn't make and have them there during this critical first year period, and they didn't make any effort to broaden out their own software development efforts -- despite the fact that they had all the time in the world (a good two years as lead time) and the easiest developmental platform available (one using all but identical programming structures to their last console). Man, it's amazing how Sony gave them the absolute most perfect opportunity when they priced the natural successor to the PS2 out of the market, but Nintendo just couldn't follow through by providing the games that would make people want to jump in.

Oh well. Too bad, so sad.

You've constructed your categories of gamers in such a way that Nintendo couldn't, by definition, satisfy your third group (which is traditional gamers not interested in Nintendo titles). Of course Nintendo can't reach that group since anyone who buys their traditional games falls out of it.

And I'm not willing to blame Nintendo- yet- for lackluster third party support. Nintendo has been pretty aggressive in courting some of the big publishing houses (namely S-E, Capcom, and Sega) and I don't know how to say Nintendo is responsible for the relatively poor results so far.

 

[charlequin]

DS didn't have an opening week this big at this stage in its life.

DS also didn't have a title this big at this stage in its life, and definitely didn't have a AAA franhise putting up a debut week this much worse than the franchise entry on its predecessor.

Saying "oh, well, DS didn't have a huge hit yet" is a dodge, a spin tactic -- because it tries to distract from the point-blank reality (SMG is putting up subpar sales) by focusing on a more abstract comparison.

I'm not happy by any stretch of the imagination at these SMG numbers; I'd really prefer that the game were shattering records and rising to heaven. However, it isn't, and I feel quite confident that I understand the reason: DS was building a market of ex-GBA customers who bought core-gamer software from day 1, while Wii isn't even necessarily drawing in the entire GameCube market.

If you disagree with this, by all means provide an argument; I'm open to being convinced otherwise. But the time where you can get away with calling this argument "nonsense" or whatever has passed; if it's nonsense, and the Wii is a games-software-selling machine, explain why SMG is doing so badly.

I assume you like chocolate and peanut butter together.

I'm human, if that's what you're asking.

 

[Shiggy]

DS also didn't have a title this big at this stage in its life, and definitely didn't have a AAA franhise putting up a debut week this much worse than the franchise entry on its predecessor.

Doesn't Super Mario 64 DS count?

 

[zeroshiki]

And when ? Two or three days before it shipped to stores. Nintendo has to learn something from Microsoft with Halo 3 or Sony with PSP Slim and FFCC VII.

They have the money right now. Where is the problem ?

I don't get where you're trying to go.

The Galaxy advertisements came out at least a week before it released. There was a big Mario Galaxy section at the Shibuya Tsutaya 2 weeks ago.

What more do you want? Ace Combat level of ad spamming?

 

[DefectiveReject]

over reaction TOTAL

Mario will have legs...... neo(Drama)GAF indeed!!

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Doesn't Super Mario 64 DS count?

SM64 DS counts if RE4 Wii counts.

So, no, not really the same thing at all.

 

[ethelred]

You've constructed your categories of gamers in such a way that Nintendo couldn't, by definition, satisfy your third group (which is traditional gamers not interested in Nintendo titles). Of course Nintendo can't reach that group since anyone who buys their traditional games falls out of it.

No, it's not that there are people who are uninterested in Nintendo games. But there are certainly a whole lot of Japanese gamers for whom fifteen different Mario games just aren't making them pop their rocks. And believe it or not, many of these people are also not interested in Zelda anymore. So no, it's not that they're not interested in Nintendo games, but they're not interested in the same Nintendo franchises that the company relied upon on the N64, the GameCube, and now the Wii.

Nintendo is certainly as capable as anyone else of branching out and developing new things that are more geared towards appealing to the broader market of Japanese gamers beyond the smaller subsect of Nintendo gamers.

 

[Shiggy]

SM64 DS counts if RE4 Wii counts.

So, no, not really the same thing at all.

Well, you can't really compare that. RE4 Wii didn't add anything but Wii Remote funtionality. SM64DS also came much later than the original game, on a far different platform with improved functions / graphics.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Nintendogs and Brain training propelled the DS though, not hardcore games. So in reality it's casual first, hardcore second that made the DS into the phenomenon it is today. It's really a icky situation to compare the DS with the Wii. The Wii is competing not with only the PS3/360 but also with the DS, since that's where the gamers are shopping and it's this gen's "PS2".

I never asserted that it was the hardcore gamers that pushed the consoles. I said that Nintendo aimed for that market first as opposed to the Wii that aimed for the casual market first. This backs up my statement because the DS was neck and neck with the PSP until they had Nintendogs, Animal Crossing, and Brain Age. The Wii aimed directly at this market from the get go and they lost much of the momentum in Japan compared to the DS were the momentum just kept on increasing.

I agree that it is an icky situation comparing the DS to the Wii, since the Wii has the added challenge of internal competition with their handheld big brother. It is also the most relevant comparison because both of those consoles use a similar strategy, not in how they aimed the market at first, but at how the ultimate goal was to expand the user base.

 

[tanod]

over reaction TOTAL

Mario will have legs...... neo(Drama)GAF indeed!!

Legs or not. SMG doing significantly better than 1.5 million lifetime (6x it's first week) isn't very likely at all.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Well, you can't really compare that. RE4 Wii didn't add anything but Wii Remote funtionality. SM64DS also came much later than the original game, on a far different platform with improved functions / graphics.

And bunked up controls. Doesn't sound like either of these is analogous to Super Mario Galaxy. Why don't we just toss them both out?

 

[DefectiveReject]

Legs or not. SMG doing significantly better than 1.5 million lifetime (6x it's first week) isn't very likely at all.

Why not?
Mario Kart DS/NSMB?Wii Sports/Wii PLay and more have sold 15-20000 a week for many many months, selling many many times their 1st week releases

It will happen

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

DS also didn't have a title this big at this stage in its life, and definitely didn't have a AAA franhise putting up a debut week this much worse than the franchise entry on its predecessor.

Mario Kart GBA at 4 months: 262K
Mario Kart DS at 12 month: 224K

Super Mario Advance at launch: 220K
Super Mario 64 DS at launch: 120K

Saying "oh, well, DS didn't have a huge hit yet" is a dodge, a spin tactic -- because it tries to distract from the point-blank reality (SMG is putting up subpar sales) by focusing on a more abstract comparison.

I don't disagree that SMG has a disappointing first week. I disagree that it means Wii has had a less successful first year than DS had, regardless of whether we look at hardware, core software, or non-core software.

 

[Evlar]

No, it's not that there are people who are uninterested in Nintendo games. But there are certainly a whole lot of Japanese gamers for whom fifteen different Mario games just aren't making them pop their rocks. And believe it or not, many of these people are also not interested in Zelda anymore. So no, it's not that they're not interested in Nintendo games, but they're not interested in the same Nintendo franchises that the company relied upon on the N64, the GameCube, and now the Wii.

Nintendo is certainly as capable as anyone else of branching out and developing new things that are more geared towards appealing to the broader market of Japanese gamers beyond the smaller subsect of Nintendo gamers.

I get what you're saying, that Nintendo could broaden their selection to reach outside their base. However Japan seems to me to be a really poisonous environment for new IP right now, except of course the more casual fare. I'm having a hard time thinking of any new IP that's done well in the past year other than Nintendo's Wii Sports/Wii Play and Level 5's Layton.

 

[avatar299]

I don't get the big deal. Isn't over 250K a week good debut sales for any game.

It came out strong and bumped the console up. What more can you ask for in just one week.

This is the problem with these sale threads. To much over analyzing becuase people can't wait another 2 or 3 weeks without proclaiming a console is dead or screwed (Case in point: ethelred post:lol )

I get what you're saying, that Nintendo could broaden their selection to reach outside their base. However Japan seems to me to be a really poisonous environment for new IP right now, except of course the more casual fare. I'm having a hard time thinking of any new IP that's done well in the past year other than Nintendo's Wii Sports/Wii Play and Level 5's Layton.

Monster Hunter....yeah that's it.

 

[Arde5643]

Wow, I think I've given up trying to understand Japan.
It seems that Japan is just apathetic to console gaming in general.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I don't get the big deal. Isn't over 250K a week good debut sales for any game.

It came out strong and bumped the console up. What more can you ask for in just one week.

Because Nintendo has effectively played a Straight Flush to beat a Pair of Deuces.

I'm not sure you guys are seeing the implications of this long-term, but I'm more than content to wait it out.

 

[Pureauthor]

I don't get the big deal. Isn't over 250K a week good debut sales for any game.

Yeah, well, the 'big deal' is that this isn't just 'any game'.

 

[charlequin]

You've constructed your categories of gamers in such a way that Nintendo couldn't, by definition, satisfy your third group (which is traditional gamers not interested in Nintendo titles). Of course Nintendo can't reach that group since anyone who buys their traditional games falls out of it.

No, you're just futzing with the semantic here. There's a traditional N-gamer category (who actively propel franchises like Zelda and Mario) and a traditional core-gamer category (who buy jRPGs, Ridge Racer, MGS, etc.) The definition of these categories doesn't mean that they never overlap, just that the latter might buy some Nintendo mascot titles but really focuses on the PS2-style core games, and vice versa for the former category. DQS is the only title released on the Wii to date that appeals to the latter category.

I, at least, aren't quick to pronounce Wii a "failure" or anything here; I'm saying they need to change their strategy and put out the titles that make core gamers want to buy the system. I totally acknowledge that the DS didn't turn its performance around until a similar timeframe, but as far as I can tell the Wii doesn't have the titles needed to change this perception on the horizon.