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[Grecco]

Because Nintendo has effectively played a Straight Flush to beat a Pair of Deuces.

I'm not sure you guys are seeing the implications of this long-term, but I'm more than content to wait it out.

What implications? ZOMG NITNENDO TEH DOOM

Please. This isnt Nintendos biggest game. Smash is. Wait till that bombs before singing the song of the world ending.

 

[ziran]

Nintendogs and Brain training propelled the DS though, not hardcore games. So in reality it's casual first, hardcore second that made the DS into the phenomenon it is today. It's really a icky situation to compare the DS with the Wii. The Wii is competing not with only the PS3/360 but also with the DS, since that's where the gamers are shopping and it's this gen's "PS2".

Yeah, that's a good point.

I think we'll have a good idea about the true fate of traditional gaming on Wii by mid January in Japan. If Wii Fit has the effect of snowballing Wii's popularity to new highs and in turn increases sales of Wii Sports and Wii Play (which is expected) along with SMG, then we could see a DS type scenario. I expect casual Nintendo games to be, by and large, the biggest sellers, but the audience still buys into hardcore gaming to an extent.

However, the real problem could be SMG is just not casual friendly. Obviously many people here won't get this, but from the limited amount I've seen and read about the game, it seems very hardcore orientated.

They didn't make the right incentives (whether monetary or otherwise) to bring third parties on from the start to make the games they couldn't make and have them there during this critical first year period, and they didn't make any effort to broaden out their own software development efforts -- despite the fact that they had all the time in the world (a good two years as lead time) and the easiest developmental platform available (one using all but identical programming structures to their last console). Man, it's amazing how Sony gave them the absolute most perfect opportunity when they priced the natural successor to the PS2 out of the market, but Nintendo just couldn't follow through by providing the games that would make people want to jump in.

You're right to an extent. Nintendo has dropped the ball with the broad audience on Wii, however 3rd parties were unlikely to abandon the PS3 until they saw the wreck its created for themselves. The system is virtually dead in every territory, selling poor amounts of sw for most developers and shows no real signs of recovery, yet big budgeted, and more importantly, big resourced titles are still continuing (obviously).

Without Nintendo going to Konami, Square, Namco, etc and saying come exclusively to Wii and with your biggest franchises and we'll pay you the difference if you don't get xxx sales, about a year before Wii launched, 3rd parties were never going to do it. And even then, with the success Sony had there would have been much debate. So, 3rd parties are partially to blame, they backed an extremely lame horse in PS3, are were always going to be a tougher nut to crack.

Really though, I think Nintendo is banking on the continued poor sales of PS3, in the sense it looks to be providing virtually zero competition until MGS, which is risky. Nintendo had the perfect time to go for PS3's jugular this year, but due to lack of preparation has extended the competition.

I don't think they should divert any resources from the Wii Sports, Nintendogs, games because no other developer is capable of making these kind of titles at the level of appeal EAD/SPD achieves, so Nintendo has to make them because they're going to be key to this generation. However, while MH3 is a good start, Nintendo really needs more moneyhatting of big 3rd party exclusives.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

What implications? ZOMG NITNENDO TEH DOOM

Please. This isnt Nintendos biggest game. Smash is. Wait till that bombs before singing the song of the world ending.

No, I think Nintendo will be rather fine. I think they're going to make record-breaking amounts of profit this gen.

And Smash is precisely why I said "Straight Flush" instead of "Royal Flush".

 

[Lightning]

Super Mario Galaxy numbers have over-shadowed the 360 outselling the PS3 this week. We shall see if this continues or if it was just a 1 week bumb before everything goes back to normal. This coming holiday could be very interesting, more interesting then I originally thought.

I'll wait and see what MC says, since they can differ at times.

 

[ksamedi]

No, it's not that there are people who are uninterested in Nintendo games. But there are certainly a whole lot of Japanese gamers for whom fifteen different Mario games just aren't making them pop their rocks. And believe it or not, many of these people are also not interested in Zelda anymore. So no, it's not that they're not interested in Nintendo games, but they're not interested in the same Nintendo franchises that the company relied upon on the N64, the GameCube, and now the Wii.

Nintendo is certainly as capable as anyone else of branching out and developing new things that are more geared towards appealing to the broader market of Japanese gamers beyond the smaller subsect of Nintendo gamers.

I agree, but I don't think its only because of the name Mario or Zelda, its also because some perceive these games as difficult to understand or even when a game is fresh as SMG people just see the same old 3D platformer game. I think what Nintendo needs to do a little faster is clearing out the Gamecube pipeline.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

No, you're just futzing with the semantic here. There's a traditional N-gamer category (who actively propel franchises like Zelda and Mario) and a traditional core-gamer category (who buy jRPGs, Ridge Racer, MGS, etc.) The definition of these categories doesn't mean that they never overlap, just that the latter might buy some Nintendo mascot titles but really focuses on the PS2-style core games, and vice versa for the former category. DQS is the only title released on the Wii to date that appeals to the latter category.

I, at least, aren't quick to pronounce Wii a "failure" or anything here; I'm saying they need to change their strategy and put out the titles that make core gamers want to buy the system. I totally acknowledge that the DS didn't turn its performance around until a similar timeframe, but as far as I can tell the Wii doesn't have the titles needed to change this perception on the horizon.

Agreed, the divide seems quite clear to me.

There are the segment of Nintendo fans that want Nintendo games and not too much. There are other gamers who want traditional gaming franchises like JRPG's, Racing Games, Fighting games, etc whose desires would lead them to go to another console at the moment.

If Nintendo can focus on this market, then they could dominate this gen until the cows come home. By not focusing on said market, it can all come crashing down.

 

[Nolan.]

What implications? ZOMG NITNENDO TEH DOOM

Please. This isnt Nintendos biggest game. Smash is. Wait till that bombs before singing the song of the world ending.

I don't think smash will be doing any better personally I feel it all started with battle revolution. I don't think 250k is bad for any game but it's not great for mario for a number of reasons. Though like people have already said it might very well creep up and explode later.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't get the big deal. Isn't over 250K a week good debut sales for any game.

It came out strong and bumped the console up. What more can you ask for in just one week.

This is the problem with these sale threads. To much over analyzing becuase people can't wait another 2 or 3 weeks without proclaiming a console is dead or screwed (Case in point: ethelred post:lol )

The real problem with these sale threads is that the people who do useful analysis (whether they're historical/numbers buffs like ethelred, Joshua, cvxfreak, donny, Moor-Angol, apu, PantherLotus, or others who are not as well versed in the numbers but still have good insight in general--jjjj, , Segatam PureAuthor are good examples) have to spend all of their time responding to the armchair analysis of the other 99% of posters who don't know what they're talking about.

250k a week is NOT a good debut sales for any game. It'd be a catastrophically awful first week for something like Final Fantasy, which has very poor legs. I'd go so far as to say that 250k in an opening week is only a good debut for a tentpole game when that game is guaranteed to have long legs.

Mario has mixed legs historically, and certainly performing under Mario Party 8 and Super Mario Sunshine (as indicators respectively of the Wii's current performance, and the GameCube's performance) is indicative of a problem.

The way I see it, JJS has this one right--this is disappointing for Mario, and certainly disappointing for the Wii, but I fear that ethelred and Segata may be a little premature in dismissing this generation entirely. Segata, especially, is wrong here when he suggests that the inability to think of 10 potential Wii titles that would outsell this (and thus invokes the comparison to the DS) as evidence that the Wii should be judged by this. While some DS megahits were existing franchises, others were new titles or new installments of previously weak franchises.

I do think ethel's three-types-of-gamers categorization is pretty on the mark though.

 

[Weisheit]

Because Nintendo has effectively played a Straight Flush to beat a Pair of Deuces.

But since when has 3d Mario been a "Straight Flush"?
Thats what everyones neglecting to mention, 3d Mario has never been big in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

ethelred-

I largely agree with you, but I do think you're giving short thrift to the fact that most 3rd parties didn't take the Wii seriously and thought it would flop. Maybe Nintendo could have done more, but I don't think it is fair to put all the 3rd party failure on Nintendo.

Now when you're talking about Nintendo themselves, I'm with you 100%. And their 08 lineup so far doesn't exactly inspire much confidence.

 

[Loudninja]

I thought the Wii hardware would have a nice bump, i mean it bump, but not what you expect .

 

[charlequin]

I get what you're saying, that Nintendo could broaden their selection to reach outside their base. However Japan seems to me to be a really poisonous environment for new IP right now, except of course the more casual fare.

That's an excuse, though. There are lots of ways around this, if Nintendo wants to put the legwork into it. Announcing that Matsuno-directed RPG we keep hearing rumors about would be one good step. Providing heavier incentives to third parties to get real entries in series like Resident Evil is another. At the moment, Nintendo isn't even making the effort.

 

[avatar299]

Because Nintendo has effectively played a Straight Flush to beat a Pair of Deuces.

I'm not sure you guys are seeing the implications of this long-term, but I'm more than content to wait it out.

What implications?Do you guys really expect it to plummet or something.

It's not like any other console is doing better, and It's just below the upper echelon of DS titles. Not that surprising knowing that the DS controls the market. It's like being surprised a GC/Xbox debut is smaller than a major PS2 debut.

From what we have seen, nothing has changed. The Wii controls the console market, but that market has been decreased at the expense of handhelds.

 

[Grecco]

But since when has 3d Mario been a "Straight Flush"?
Thats what everyones neglecting to mention, 3d Mario has never been big in Japan.

Exactly. I think many foolishly correlated NSMB to SMG and expected greater numbers. A mistake but thats fine. Core gaming is sitll perfectly viable and you will see those numbers come January with Smash Brothers a bigger franchise in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

That's an excuse, though. There are lots of ways around this, if Nintendo wants to put the legwork into it. Announcing that Matsuno-directed RPG we keep hearing rumors about would be one good step. Providing heavier incentives to third parties to get real entries in series like Resident Evil is another. At the moment, Nintendo isn't even making the effort.

How do we know this? I'd say MH3 is a good start, no?

 

[Grecco]

. Providing heavier incentives to third parties to get real entries in series like Resident Evil is another. At the moment, Nintendo isn't even making the effort.

Yes Iwata will hold third parties at gunpoint to sign contracts.. Look they cant force them to work with Nintendo. You dont think they havent tried? The Gamecube era hurt Nintendo tremendously, its faliure can be directly correlated to the legitimate lack of effort by third parties on Nintendo plataforms. Nobody can honestly be taking stuff like Opoona seriously can they?

 

[avatar299]

250k a week is NOT a good debut sales for any game. It'd be a catastrophically awful first week for something like Final Fantasy, which has very poor legs. I'd go so far as to say that 250k in an opening week is only a good debut for a tentpole game when that game is guaranteed to have long legs.

None of the 3D mario games have done well in Japan. This isn't New Super Mario Bros 2.

Edit: Shit, beaten to the punch.

 

[ethelred]

This is the problem with these sale threads. To much over analyzing becuase people can't wait another 2 or 3 weeks without proclaiming a console is dead or screwed (Case in point: ethelred post:lol )

I've not said that the Wii is dead or screwed, but if it helps you to boil everything down to the most simplistic black and white terms, help yourself. I am saying there are some really troubling signs here and if the Wii is expected to both maintain and improve its current dominance of the Japanese market in such a way as to ensure third parties see success on this platform and in such a way as to allow hardcore games to flourish in order to guarantee future support, changes needed to be made. But lots of damage has already been done, and Nintendo has blown some big opportunities that won't present themselves so readily again.

Monster Hunter....yeah that's it.

A market leading console that is going to continually appeal to hardcore gamers needs more than a single tentpole release every quarter. That's the way the N64 and the GameCube functioned, but it was never the way the PSX or the PS2 functioned... or the SNES, coincidentally enough. Monster Hunter 3 was a good start, but as I have said ever since that event, they needed more than that. It was disappointing that was the only new hardcore-gamer oriented game (third party or not) unveiled at that event. There really isn't a very deep and compelling software lineup for the future right now.

None of the 3D mario games have done well in Japan. This isn't New Super Mario Bros 2.

Right, apparantly it's Super Mario Sunshine 1/2. Yes, we know, 3D Mario does not do as well in Japan as 2D Mario -- there's still no excuse for their inability to push Mario Galaxy more than Mario Sunshine, which was a pretty big disaster.

That's an excuse, though. There are lots of ways around this, if Nintendo wants to put the legwork into it. Announcing that Matsuno-directed RPG we keep hearing rumors about would be one good step. Providing heavier incentives to third parties to get real entries in series like Resident Evil is another. At the moment, Nintendo isn't even making the effort.

Exactly so. Where were their games at E3? Where were their games at TGS? At their own event, they announced only one new game and one new Mario spinoff. This is not the stuff confidence is built off of. If they've got Matsuno making a game, announce it. Show it off. Wow people. What's Monolith Soft doing aside from Disaster and SB? Why is Monolith Soft doing Disaster in the first place when they could certainly be making something a lot more appealing to a mainstream audience? These are the questions that puzzle.

Segata, especially, is wrong here when he suggests that the inability to think of 10 potential Wii titles that would outsell this (and thus invokes the comparison to the DS) as evidence that the Wii should be judged by this. While some DS megahits were existing franchises, others were new titles or new installments of previously weak franchises.

I don't think that's exactly what he's suggesting. Certainly there will be games that outsell Mario Galaxy (especially if THIS is how it's going to sell!). The question is: what type of games? Are there ten gamer games (even Nintendo gamer-games) that are going to outsell it? If you're a third party, are you going to have confidence in outselling one of Nintendo's flagship titles? Probably not, so where does it look like the ceiling is for you?

 

[Evlar]

But since when has 3d Mario been a "Straight Flush"?
Thats what everyones neglecting to mention, 3d Mario has never been big in Japan.

Nintendo shipped 700k and have reportedly been advertising the hell out of SMG, they have to be disappointed.

 

[[Nintex]]

That's an excuse, though. There are lots of ways around this, if Nintendo wants to put the legwork into it. Announcing that Matsuno-directed RPG we keep hearing rumors about would be one good step. Providing heavier incentives to third parties to get real entries in series like Resident Evil is another. At the moment, Nintendo isn't even making the effort.

They developed 3 almost perfect games within a year: Zelda TP, Metroid Prime 3 and Super Mario Galaxy. They also managed to release all kinds of other Mario/Nintendo, Casual games as well. They just bought Monolith soft, exellent support from Capcom and Smash Bros. is the best fan service ever. Why people keep saying: "They left us to die!" is beyond me. The only thing that they still suck at is marketing. They sold the system, all that's left to do is sell the games.

 

[nextgeneration]

Hopefully, nobody's posted this yet and I don't feel like going through all these pages to find these numbers, but just as a reference point, here are the ltd #'s for both sunshine and mario 64:

mario sunshine = 789,989
mario 64 = 1,639,914

Galaxy should outsell Sunshine, assuming it has legs. Outselling Mario 64 is going to be a lot harder, but if this game has legs at all, you never know....

 

[Shiggy]

Nintendo shipped 700k and have reportedly been advertising the hell out of SMG, they have to be disappointed.

Weren't reports saying the adverts were too few, too late and so on?

 

[schuelma]

They developed 3 almost perfect games within a year: Zelda TP, Metroid Prime 3 and Super Mario Galaxy. They also managed to release all kinds of other Mario/Nintendo, Casual games as well. They just bought Monolith soft, exellent support from Capcom and Smash Bros. is the best fan service ever. Why people keep saying: "They left us to die!" is beyond me. The only thing that they still suck at is marketing. They sold the system, all that's left to do is sell the games.

What does Nintendo have lined up for next year?

Mario Kart, Disaster.....and???

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

But since when has 3d Mario been a "Straight Flush"?
Thats what everyones neglecting to mention, 3d Mario has never been big in Japan.

Okay, then you tell me. What traditional game franchise does Nintendo have that's bigger than 3D Mario in Japan besides Smash? Mario Kart I guess?

Nintendo needs to get their shit together, because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

 

[Weisheit]

Nintendo shipped 700k and have reportedly been advertising the hell out of SMG, they have to be disappointed.

Maybe, I am. But thats not the point, these games have never been very popular there, and from the looks of it never will be.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I, at least, aren't quick to pronounce Wii a "failure" or anything here; I'm saying they need to change their strategy and put out the titles that make core gamers want to buy the system. I totally acknowledge that the DS didn't turn its performance around until a similar timeframe, but as far as I can tell the Wii doesn't have the titles needed to change this perception on the horizon.

Which games on DS do you think changed the perception?

 

[Lightning]

Hopefully, nobody's posted this yet and I don't feel like going through all these pages to find these numbers, but just as a reference point, here are the ltd #'s for both sunshine and mario 64:

mario sunshine = 789,989
mario 64 = 1,639,914

Galaxy should outsell Sunshine, assuming it has legs. Outselling Mario 64 is going to be a lot harder, but if this game has legs at all, you never know....

Unless it has Wii Sports legs it definitely won't outsell Mario 64 and I expect Galaxy to pull Sunshine type numbers lifetime.

Which is still not bad, just lower then what everyone expected.

 

[[Nintex]]

What does Nintendo have lined up for next year?

Mario Kart, Disaster.....and???

We've only seen the Q1 and Q2 releases, I'm sure they'll have a big title for Q4 2008, they just don't want to show it yet.

because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

I would build my own console or start a cab company.

 

[Grecco]

Okay, then you tell me. What traditional game franchise does Nintendo have that's bigger than 3D Mario in Japan besides Smash? Mario Kart I guess?

Nintendo needs to get their shit together, because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

Working on DS development?

Anyways Smash is bigger than Mario in Japan, Hell Smash is Nintendos biggest franchise world wide..

 

[jj984jj]

Nintendo has turned Japan into non-game nation.

 

[schuelma]

Okay, then you tell me. What traditional game franchise does Nintendo have that's bigger than 3D Mario in Japan besides Smash? Mario Kart I guess?

Nintendo needs to get their shit together, because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

I don't know what they can do right now to stop the trend- Like Sony, they've already chosen their path to a large extent.

 

[avatar299]

I've not said that the Wii is dead or screwed, but if it helps you to boil everything down to the most simplistic black and white terms, help yourself. I am saying there are some really troubling signs here and if the Wii is expected to both maintain and improve its current dominance of the Japanese market in such a way as to ensure third parties see success on this platform and in such a way as to allow hardcore games to flourish in order to guarantee future support, changes needed to be made. But lots of damage has already been done, and Nintendo has blown some big opportunities that won't present themselves so readily again.

They are making the changes, you need to give them time. Nintendo can't bully all these companies into giving them exclusives. Especially if som many are looking for worldwide sales now. That said, Nintendo's last big announcement was Monster Hunter 3, Not Brain Age 3.

A market leading console that is going to continually appeal to hardcore gamers needs more than a single tentpole release every quarter. That's the way the N64 and the GameCube functioned, but it was never the way the PSX or the PS2 functioned... or the SNES, coincidentally enough. Monster Hunter 3 was a good start, but as I have said ever since that event, they needed more than that. It was disappointing that was the only new hardcore-gamer oriented game (third party or not) unveiled at that event. There really isn't a very deep and compelling software lineup for the future right now.

I agree, but i don't think it will stay like this very long. 2008 already looks better than 2007 did in terms of more traditional 3rd party "hardcore" games

 

[Saitou]

People, at this point, releasing core games and flagship non-nongames in Japan is more formality than anything else.

The schism is clear, Japan/USA an Europe sits in the middle.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Working on DS development?

Anyways Smash is bigger than Mario in Japan, Hell Smash is Nintendos biggest franchise world wide..

Bingo. I would be putting my traditional games on the PSP and DS, and maybe cooking up another mini-game compilation for the Wii.

 

[Shiggy]

What does Nintendo have lined up for next year?

Mario Kart, Disaster.....and???

There should be some of these unnamed game which are already confirmed. One made by Kuju, one made by Monster Games etc.
You might find some more information here: http://softrockhallelujah.blogspot.com/

 

[Weisheit]

Okay, then you tell me. What traditional game franchise does Nintendo have that's bigger than 3D Mario in Japan besides Smash? Mario Kart I guess?

Nintendo needs to get their shit together, because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

Yup, Mario kart for one, AC too.....maybe, but yeah they need more Japanese centric franchises.

 

[ethelred]

We've only seen the Q1 and Q2 releases, I'm sure they'll have a big title for Q4 2008, they just don't want to show it yet.

They need to fucking show it. They need to convince people that they're going to support gamers and continue to provide a fleshed out, compelling lineup of games that aren't tailored to one or two specific demographics.

I know what big stuff Square Enix has coming for a year and beyond. I know the same of Capcom. I know plenty of games Sony and Microsoft are cooking up to make 2008 a really well rounded year. But no one knows these things of Nintendo, because they're caught up in their own hubris and secrecy.

Bingo. I would be putting my traditional games on the PSP and DS, and maybe cooking up another mini-game compilation for the Wii.

Yup, that's what I'd be doing as well.

They are making the changes, you need to give them time. Nintendo can't bully all these companies into giving them exclusives. Especially if som many are looking for worldwide sales now.

No one needs to be bullied. Stick, meet carrot.

 

[Lightning]

What is more accurate anyway... Media Create or Famitsu?

 

[schuelma]

Bingo. I would be putting my traditional games on the PSP and DS, and maybe cooking up another mini-game compilation for the Wii.

Hell, might as well keep stuff going on the PS2.

 

[schuelma]

They need to fucking show it. They need to convince people that they're going to support gamers and continue to provide a fleshed out, compelling lineup of games that aren't tailored to one or two specific demographics.

I know what big stuff Square Enix has coming for a year and beyond. I know the same of Capcom. I know plenty of games Sony and Microsoft are cooking up to make 2008 a really well rounded year. But no one knows these things of Nintendo, because they're caught up in their own hubris and secrecy.

\.

Yup. Sadly, I have a feeling Nintendo's big 08 franchises are going to be limited to Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

 

[Grecco]

Yup. Sadly, I have a feeling Nintendo's big 08 franchises are going to be limited to Mario Kart and Animal Crossing.

Yes they will release even less games than 07?


(You act like AC is a bad thing btw)

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

What is more accurate anyway... Media Create or Famitsu?

We aren't really in a position to judge that, unfortunately. Best to think of them as different sets of data until you can compare data from larger stretches of time.

 

[ksamedi]

Bingo. I would be putting my traditional games on the PSP and DS, and maybe cooking up another mini-game compilation for the Wii.

Your way too pessimistic. We have seen these so called minigame collections, they all bomb in every country possible except for the really good ones wich use the controller quite well.

 

[[Nintex]]

They need to fucking show it.

They don't need to show it, that's what killed the gamecube in the first place. Early trailers, shitty beta's and games at E3 that never saw the day of light. The system was on life support because people were waiting for Mario 128 and Zelda instead of buying the games available.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Nintendo has turned Japan into non-game nation.

What? If anything it turned into a portable nation.

 

[tanod]

Why not?
Mario Kart DS/NSMB?Wii Sports/Wii PLay and more have sold 15-20000 a week for many many months, selling many many times their 1st week releases

It will happen

The titles that have shown the best legs do less than 15-20% of their lifetime in the first week in Japan. Assuming SMG is in that category, it is unlikely that it will sell substantially more than 1.5 million.

My calculations:
(250,000 * [100%/15%]) = 1,667,500

EDIT: That estimate would put it on track to sell about the same as Mario 64.

 

[ethelred]

They don't need to show it, that's what killed the gamecube in the first place. Early trailers, shitty beta's and games at E3 that never saw the day of light. The system was on life support because people were waiting for Mario 128 and Zelda instead of buying the games available.

The GameCube was killed by Nintendo showing off too many promising games that appealed to the mainstream Japanese gamers? Really?

Really?

Would you like to phone a friend?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Your way too pessimistic. We have seen these so called minigame collections, they all bomb in every country possible except for the really good ones wich use the controller quite well.

You're right. I guess I wouldn't bother putting anything on the Wii at all, then.

 

[schuelma]

Yes they will release even less games than 07?


(You act like AC is a bad thing btw)

It's not a bad thing, but it's not going to be some innovative new IP or gameplay. It's going to be AC bigger and online.

 

[Stumpokapow]

None of the 3D mario games have done well in Japan. This isn't New Super Mario Bros 2.

Please don't insinuate that I'm one of the doofuses that expected 1.1 million units week one. I'm not.

The problem is that unless Mario's legs have gotten longer, Galaxy will be the lowest selling of the three 3d Marios. And irrelevant to what the game is--the fact that ANY franchise would sell better on the Cube than on the Wii is distressing.

The Cube was an unmitigated disaster. Even moreso than the disastrous N64 (in Japan). Software merely equaling or not even equaling the Cube is not a good thing.

I don't think that's exactly what he's suggesting. Certainly there will be games that outsell Mario Galaxy (especially if THIS is how it's going to sell!). The question is: what type of games? Are there ten gamer games (even Nintendo gamer-games) that are going to outsell it?

My problem is with the assumption that the ability of games to sell is tied to my ability to imagine games selling. I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know if DQ10 will be a Wii game. I don't know if the Wii will have a DS-like turnaround. I don't know if some awesome new IP will emerge.

If you look at the DS this far in, it would have been impossible and indeed ridiculous to predict what ended up coming true, both in terms of quantities of hardware and software and also qualitatively what TYPE of software it will be.

If you're a third party, are you going to have confidence in outselling one of Nintendo's flagship titles? Probably not, so where does it look like the ceiling is for you?

I don't disagree with you about the abominable state of third-party sales on the Wii in Japan, merely about whether or not this is a permanent state or just a current one. I don't think either you or Segata has really necessarily established the sort of necessary link between what is happening and what will happen, other than the obvious and overbroad "trends affect the future".