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[Segata Sanshiro]

That was a bomb?

While not on the Dewey or Opoona level of being able to count off the number of sales one-by-one inside of an hour and a half, it's still ...hmmm, optimistically, it's still an utter disaster.

 

[Stumpokapow]

While not on the Dewey or Opoona level of being able to count off the number of sales one-by-one inside of an hour and a half, it's still ...hmmm, optimistically, it's still an utter disaster.

your analogies are like a choral of angels singing the star spangled banner while god rocks out on an electric guitar.

 

[schuelma]

I'm really not being doom & gloom here. I'm not saying the situation can't be corrected, and I'm not saying the future is sealed against game success on the system. I'm just noting that there are some pretty bad trends right here, and to any reasonable person, big red flashing sirens and lights should be going off saying "Danger, danger."

.

How can this be corrected?

If we assume that Nintendo has chosen the Wii Fit/casual path and up to now hasn't seriously courted 3rd parties..then there won't be any relief anytime soon right?

 

[Lightning]

67K isn't anything to sneeze at, especially for an X360 game in Japan.

Yes, it's good for a 360 game in Japan but that doesn't change the fact that it was still worse then the previous installment. The 360 can only hide behind the "It did good for a 360 game" crap for so long, in the end sales are sales and if they are below then that's just it, the platform is not important.

When this game sits next to the others in the series, the sales will still look bad and saying "Good for a 360 game" won't change that.

 

[Grecco]

While not on the Dewey or Opoona level of being able to count off the number of sales one-by-one inside of an hour and a half, it's still ...hmmm, optimistically, it's still an utter disaster.

And to blame it on Nintendo is silly. We knew it was going to bomb 6 months ago. Thats entirely on Capcom.

 

[ziran]

Well, Nintendo seems to be able to sell stuff on it. They also sell stuff on the DS so they have two platforms instead of one. And besides, I would hardly call the PSP a good alternative just because a couple of games sold well.

You're right. Overall, PSP is still poor for sw sales. I mean, having a few big sellers from a few major titles isn't much incentive for most developers when you have DS, a much more popular, much cheaper to develop for system, with a much better track record for 3rd party sales.

At the moment, DS is the only reasonable alternative for 3rd parties in Japan. It's where all major efforts should go for the immediate future, like DQ9.

If it's going to happen, it's going to take a while for Wii to grow a big enough installed base to have DS level healthy 3rd party sales, but I think most 3rd parties have only recently realised what's going to happen in the home console market with the dominance of Wii, so the timing should work well.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This is a fun role-playing exercise. You're Nintendo and I'm the third party that you're trying to convince to put a game on the Wii.

I'd rather roleplay as a bitter Nintendo who's pleased at the success they've made on their own.

But Nintendo, even your old franchises aren't selling as well as they did on the Gamecube

Ignoring those that are, yes, this is true. I'd also note our most successful game is something new. Taking Samurai Warriors and making a limited waggle spinoff isn't exactly attempting either path very well.

and none of my mini-game compilations are selling well, in spite of them being generally as good as Mario Party and Wii Play.

Mario Party created a sub-genre of its own, became the de facto standard, and a decade later we're reaping the benefits. Why don't you do that? Trying to beat Mario Party at its own game is a recipe for sloppy second place at best.

Wouldn't my resources be better allocated to a DS game or a PSP game while you guys sort this transition stuff out? I can't really afford a bomb like my friend Capcom had with Zack & Wiki.

Hey, if you want to come back to Wii later when we've once again marked our territory with a dominating presence and there's more Square Enix on the side, be my guest. I don't anticipate it will work out much better than your Mario Party clone, but hey, by that time even sloppy thirds should make you a handful of yen. Good luck with that whole PSP software thing, though.

 

[Crushed]

While not on the Dewey or Opoona level of being able to count off the number of sales one-by-one inside of an hour and a half, it's still ...hmmm, optimistically, it's still an utter disaster.

It's okay Segata, we understand that you're still upset at Sega's failure.

You don't need to bring everyone else down with it.

 

[Parl]

SMG where expected based on first day sales, but still disappointing, but 360 number is nice for the week. See if it can do a million by the end of next year.

 

[avatar299]

While not on the Dewey or Opoona level of being able to count off the number of sales one-by-one inside of an hour and a half, it's still ...hmmm, optimistically, it's still an utter disaster.

How much of that is Nintendo fault, and how much is that Capcom fault.

it's not like Capcom went out of there way to sell a niche product. Hell, I think they are surprised it came out with good reviews.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

How can this be corrected?

If we assume that Nintendo has chosen the Wii Fit/casual path and up to now hasn't seriously courted 3rd parties..then there won't be any relief anytime soon right?

Start opening the wallet/vault and spend some money for once to secure major third party games. Monster Rancher 3 is a good start.

Of course, this is a bit risky, so Nintendo isn't terribly prone to do it.

 

[avatar299]

What a coincidence - it gets to bomb a second time thanks to the Wii!

This time, it deserves to

 

[schuelma]

And to blame it on Nintendo is silly. We knew it was going to bomb 6 months ago. Thats entirely on Capcom.

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

 

[avatar299]

Start opening the wallet/vault and spend some money for once to secure major third party games.

Monster Hunter 3 is a good start.

Completely contradict each other.

 

[ethelred]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

Virtua Fighter 5.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Start opening the wallet/vault and spend some money for once to secure major third party games. Monster Rancher 3 is a good start.

Of course, this is a bit risky, so Nintendo isn't terribly prone to do it.

Monster Hunter 3. Monster Rancher was awful.

 

[Evlar]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

Okami?

 

[schuelma]

Start opening the wallet/vault and spend some money for once to secure major third party games. Monster Rancher 3 is a good start.

Of course, this is a bit risky, so Nintendo isn't terribly prone to do it.

Yeah, but even if that happens starting now, those games presumably won't be out for a while. Might be too late.

 

[avatar299]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

What is the next marketed, not crappy wii 3rd party game.

Maybe No More Heroes

Okami?

Shouldn't we want that to fail?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

It's okay Segata, we understand that you're still upset at Sega's failure.

You don't need to bring everyone else down with it.

SEGA is doing better than ever financially, and they're producing some excellent games of late too. They're doing a fine job as a third party.

 

[D.Lo]

So many comparisons, so many predictions, so many conclusions. If the Japanese market has taught me anything over the last three years, it's that nothing can be predicted.

The Wii is not the PS2, nor is it the DS, nor is it the GameCube. Everything is so different (in both context and content) most of the comparisons are meaningless.

Okay, then you tell me. What traditional game franchise does Nintendo have that's bigger than 3D Mario in Japan besides Smash? Mario Kart I guess?

Nintendo needs to get their shit together, because if I were a third party looking at this data, I know what I would be doing.

So now third parties will avoid the Wii because first party games don't sell?

I thought they hated Nintendo because their games' sales would be dwarfed? But if Galaxy has no legs (or the same-ish legs as Sunshine had), then Dragon Quest Swords, the closest thing to a high profile, traditional, decent quality original 3rd party Wii game, will end up outselling it. That should sound like opportunity for 3rd parties.

Bingo. I would be putting my traditional games on the PSP and DS, and maybe cooking up another mini-game compilation for the Wii.

PSP, seriously? The platform with a lower attach rate then the Wii, even though it's been out three times as long?

 

[Crushed]

SEGA is doing better than ever financially, and they're producing some excellent games of late too. They're doing a fine job as a third party.

hahaha

 

[schuelma]

What is the next marketed, not crappy wii 3rd party game.

Maybe No More Heroes

I'm pretty sure RE:UC will be marketed and at the very least seems to be a very substantial game.

 

[ksamedi]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

Why don't we count REUC again? Thats a perfectly good game to count. Its a spinoff maybe but it should do decent numbers.

 

[Graphics Horse]

It's about a third of the first week sales for the last Ace Combat game. I sneeze at that.

???

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126894

6. (PSP, Bandai Namco) ACE COMBAT X Skies of Deception - 60,584

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Completely contradict each other.

It takes more than one to make a trend.

 

[charlequin]

Which games on DS do you think changed the perception?

I'm saying that the DS never had this perception. By virtue of being the successor to a success instead of a failure, it started with the perception that it would receive decent games. Wii's success didn't change the perception that it would receive GCN-level software support, which means an equivalent effort from Nintendo (we can argue now about whether it even got an equivalent effort) produced a shittier result.

 

[Dascu]

What is the next marketed, not crappy wii 3rd party game.

Maybe No More Heroes

We certainly don't want that one to fail. We don't want any of Marvelous Interactive's Wii games to fail. But we all know they will bomb. It's a sad world we live in.

 

[avatar299]

???

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126894

6. (PSP, Bandai Namco) ACE COMBAT X Skies of Deception - 60,584

PSP game. Should be expected.

 

[schuelma]

Why don't we count REUC again? Thats a perfectly good game to count. Its a spinoff maybe but it should do decent numbers.

Because according to him, on rails shooters don't sell so we don't count it.

 

[plagiarize]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

i have a crazy idea... lets not judge 3rd party success on any individual title be it a bomb or a hit.

 

[avatar299]

No, we certainly don't want that one to fail. We don't want any of Marvelous Interactive's Wii games to fail. But we all know they will bomb. It's a sad world we live in.

I meant Okami. I'm buying NMH day one.

It takes more than one to make a trend.

.....touche

 

[Moor-Angol]

We don't want to bury the poor bastard yet, but a bad trend is forming. And while there are only 10 DS games with bigger first weeks, just try to name 10 possible Wii games with more potential than Mario had.

Wii Fit
Wii Music
SSBB
Mario Kart
Final Fantasy Crystal Bearers (maybe)
Animal Crossing
Monster Hunter 3
a new DQ title (if S-E will do that)


there are 8 titles, and just based about games which will be released around 2008 (except for DQ game, but considering DQ:S probably did better than SMG first week and it's going to 500k, it's normal to think S-E will make another game based on DQ universe on Wii).

about SMG sales, i don't think first week is so relevant, but the important thing is if the game will have long legs or not, and considering there are 8 weeks of strong sales, before talking about "bomba" or "not bomba" we should wait till middle January

 

[schuelma]

i have a crazy idea... lets not judge 3rd party success on any individual title be it a bomb or a hit.

Ok fine, but when 3rd party game after 3rd party game keeps selling like shit, at what point does a trend develop?

 

[avatar299]

Because according to him, on rails shooters don't sell so we don't count it.

I never said that.

i have a crazy idea... lets not judge 3rd party success on any individual title be it a bomb or a hit.

I love you

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The problem here is that both sides can "Yes, but..." until the cows come home. While I've purposefully ventured out onto a limb in this discussion, I don't think it's anywhere near as unlikely as I once considered it that the Wii will not catch with hardcores at all and the home console market will hand off to the portable market for that audience nearly entirely.

 

[schuelma]

I never said that.

I wasn't talking about you- maybe I quoted the wrong post or something.

 

[ziran]

Ok, so we can't count Zack and Wiki. And we can't count RE:UC if that bombs...what is our next legitimate measure of 3rd parties success on Wii?

Interestingly, Zack and Wiki highlights the incompetence of many 3rd parties with the casual audience on Wii.

Z&W has nothing to do with a casual game and has never had any chance of appealing to a casual market. This should be obvious to anyone who's played it, it's 100% hardcore, to the extent the graphics really do the game a disservice. Capcom really was off their head if they wanted this to appeal to Wii's main audience, and judging by those Japanese, everybody's having a great time, videos, they really hoped it would do well in this market when it clearly never had a chance.

It also highlights how most 3rd parties don't get, and can't create, what Nintendo does with Wii Sports, Brain Training etc. It's just not what they do.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Hopefully if the Wii gets a few more hardcore gamers, it can up that part of the player base.

Right now it's kind of empty.

 

[charlequin]

How can this be corrected?

If we assume that Nintendo has chosen the Wii Fit/casual path and up to now hasn't seriously courted 3rd parties..then there won't be any relief anytime soon right?

It's not quite too late. Nintendo has a huge warchest and there are third-parties that, I think, are interested in giving Wii a chance if the risk isn't there.

What Nintendo needs is three more core-gamer titles in 2008. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say that the Matsunoton is true, and they have a seriously hardcore S/RPG coming for next year. In that case: they should pay flat-out for a full-fledged (but non-numbered) RE using the RE4wii engine, and... I dunno. A sim racer? Ace Combat Wii? The PS3 is still weak enough that a good 2008 lineup can start a DS-like transition to the Wii, but if Nintendo is anything like some of the people in this thread they're going to overconfidently miss their chance and either the PS3 will slowly crawl up to meet them or console gaming will die in Japan.

 

[schuelma]

Hopefully if the Wii gets a few more hardcore gamers, it can up that part of the player base.

Right now it's kind of empty.

I agree that short term this is Nintendo's best hope- there are a decent amount of "traditional" games coming the next 2 months or so, and maybe the combination of these titles will change the perception.

 

[Dascu]

Interestingly, Zack and Wiki highlights the incompetence of many 3rd parties with the casual audience on Wii.

Z&W has nothing to do with a casual game and has never had any chance of appealing to a casual market. This should be obvious to anyone who's played it, it's 100% hardcore, to the extent the graphics really do the game a disservice. Capcom really was off their head if they wanted this to appeal to Wii's main audience, and judging by those Japanese, everybody's having a great time, videos, they really hoped it would do well in this market when it clearly never had a chance.

It also highlights how most 3rd parties just don't get, and can't create, what Nintendo does with Wii Sports, Brain Training etc.

Well, Zack and Wiki was possibly the best attempt so far at creating a "Nintendo" game from a 3rd party developer. It's really, really sad to see it do so poorly and it certainly doesn't bode well for other titles.

 

[avatar299]

The problem here is that both sides can "Yes, but..." until the cows come home. While I've purposefully ventured out onto a limb in this discussion, I don't think it's anywhere near as unlikely as I once considered it that the Wii will not catch with hardcores at all and the home console market will hand off to the portable market for that audience nearly entirely.

While I appreciate your venturing, Hasn't this been the case for the past year? It's not like Nintendo needs the Wii to start outselling the DS. These numbers are only bad when compared to the DS. In every way with the other consoles sans PS2/PSP in terms of hardware sold Wii is killing everything. It's controlling a significant, albeit smaller and maybe less important console market.

 

[Weisheit]

I'd rather roleplay as a bitter Nintendo who's pleased at the success they've made on their own.

Thank you. Maybe Nintendo no longer views third parties as being integral for their success. It's not like they've played any significant role in the DS's success.

 

[Crushed]

The problem here is that both sides can "Yes, but..." until the cows come home. While I've purposefully ventured out onto a limb in this discussion, I don't think it's anywhere near as unlikely as I once considered it that the Wii will not catch with hardcores at all and the home console market will hand off to the portable market for that audience nearly entirely.

Yes, but, is that true?

 

[Nolan.]

Interestingly, Zack and Wiki highlights the incompetence of many 3rd parties with the casual audience on Wii.

Z&W has nothing to do with a casual game and has never had any chance of appealing to a casual market. This should be obvious to anyone who's played it, it's 100% hardcore, to the extent the graphics really do the game a disservice. Capcom really was off their head if they wanted this to appeal to Wii's main audience, and judging by those Japanese, everybody's having a great time, videos, they really hoped it would do well in this market when it clearly never had a chance.

It also highlights how most 3rd parties don't get, and can't create, what Nintendo does with Wii Sports, Brain Training etc. It's just not what they do.

Maybe they were in the process of figuring just who the audience were.

 

[schuelma]

Thank you. Maybe Nintendo no longer views third parties as being integral for their success. It's not like they've played any significant role in the DS's success.

Ok that's fine. But as a Wii owner I WANT good third party games. I don't want the Wii to be another GC.

 

[plagiarize]

Ok fine, but when 3rd party game after 3rd party game keeps selling like shit, at what point does a trend develop?

when we have enough data to say for sure that we're looking at a trend, rather than a succession of games that didn't catch public interest. i guess we'll look at historical trends to work out whether or not we have enough data, but i imagine that should it continue, there will be less people arguing about it in time, until everyone agrees.

we have some 3rd party games that exceeded expectations, and some which bombed... frankly expectedly. zack and wiki didn't bomb because it was 3rd party and 'nintendo users only buy nintendo games' because if that was indeed the people that owned a Wii, they'd have all bought Mario too.

why did RE4 surpass expectations? did Ghost Squad surpass expectations?

i'm not providing answers, just posing questions. do most 3rd party games on any system make a profit?

i'm not saying i have a great system for this, just that evaluating 3rd party performance on a small sample of data is a bad system. not pretending i'm smart enough to come up with a good one, but i'll know it when i see it.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Yes, but, is that true?

I'm not seeing a lot of evidence for the existence of the hardcores in any significant numbers on any of the new home consoles. This could change, but I'm not very optimistic about it anymore.

 

[Dascu]

Perhaps they should try to lure handheld gamers/former PS2 owners to the Wii? The problem is how to do this. The current handheld library is so damn good, it's hard to feel like you're missing out on something by not owning a Wii (or other home console for that matter).