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cvxfreak · Nov 9, 2007

Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Brain Age 2 was released on 29th December...Animal Crossing on 23th November, and 2005 December was right on DS explosion.

Come on, I can't believe Nintendo wouldn't be able to restock Mario Party DS (if needed) on time.

With DQIV, Starforce 2 and FFIV coming, it might be difficult to restock. Or, conversely, Nintendo may expect to restock in December if the 500K is run through.

Moreover, Mario Party 5, 6 and 7 failed to break, or barely broke 100K in their first weeks and still went on to sell huge amounts on the GameCube. Mario Party is known to have legs and it's quite premature to write off the series just because it sells <20% in its first day.

Lobster · Nov 9, 2007

DefectiveReject said:
any word on the continued sales of Galaxy?

And it seems like pretty low sales ACROSS all games at the moment. Is Japan broke or something??

No. Not every game does crazy ammounts that 2D Mario games, Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy does on their first weeks. People are just expecting too much.

PistolGrip · Nov 9, 2007

Metalmurphy said:
Wow at the 360 outselling the PS3 oO

Was this because of AC6? I had no idea AC was that big in Japan.

AC6, and Price drop but still impressive.

Stumpokapow · Nov 9, 2007

DefectiveReject said:
any word on the continued sales of Galaxy?

The only time we get mid-week sales updates after week one is if there is a notable sellout (Taiko Drum Master DS about three weeks in to its run, for example). No such sellout, so we have no idea about Galaxy. Wait for next week's numbers.

Dash Kappei · Nov 9, 2007

edit: sooo fuckin late, story of my life.

twinturbo2 · Nov 9, 2007

PistolGrip said:
AC6, and Price drop but still impressive.

... and the runup to Lost Oddyssey.

Pureauthor · Nov 9, 2007

twinturbo2 said:
... and the runup to Lost Oddyssey.

I don't recall any 'runup' for most system-selling games. People tend to purchase the system at the same time they buy the game.

Xisiqomelir · Nov 9, 2007

:lol

Time to head over to tardforums and pick up some lulz.

re: Wii Fit sub-discussion, I'm going to say 400k first week.

Pureauthor · Nov 9, 2007

Xisiqomelir said:
:lol

Time to head over to tardforums and pick up some lulz.

Visiting the entire internet? That's a pretty high order.

twinturbo2 · Nov 9, 2007

Can someone explain to me the "crossing streams" thing? I haven't been keeping up...

Guybrush Threepwood · Nov 9, 2007

Dash Kappei said:
edit: sooo fuckin late, story of my life.

How many kids do you have?

First Children · Nov 9, 2007

WiiFit -> 160k first week

second week will be higher.

twinturbo2 · Nov 9, 2007

First Children said:
WiiFit -> 160k first week

second week will be higher.

In Japan? I doubt it, I don't think the obesity problem is as bad there as it is over here. WiiFit will sell like gangbusters in America, though.

JoshuaJSlone · Nov 9, 2007

a Master Ninja said:
Will Lost Odyssey make the streams cross again?

A much harder thing. By that point there will be the normal seasonal pickup (plus unknown effects of 40GB and new software), so X360 would have to do quite a bit more than 17K to get near PS3 that time.

twinturbo2 said:
Can someone explain to me the "crossing streams" thing? I haven't been keeping up...

Every single week (when the systems are out to compare) X360 has been below PS3, which has been below Wii. This is the first time their order ever changed, so viewing sales with a line there's a crossing.

schuelma · Nov 9, 2007

twinturbo2 said:
In Japan? I doubt it, I don't think the obesity problem is as bad there as it is over here. WiiFit will sell like gangbusters in America, though.

I really think people are misunderstanding Wii Fit to a certain degree. While yes, it will appeal to those trying to lose weight, it will also appeal to those who..aptly enough, want to stay Fit.

Graphics Horse · Nov 9, 2007

twinturbo2 said:
I don't think the obesity problem is as bad there as it is over here.

That's because less people care about keeping fit....
The person who predicted huge second-hand sales is probably onto something though.

charlequin · Nov 9, 2007

Kurosaki Ichigo said:
I'm sure Magicpaint and me aren't saying otherwise. We are commenting on its first day numbers, the only data we have for it, and the first day numbers aren't good with such a low sell through.

I don't think this is really an accurate assessment. Unlike with SMG, we pretty much know that lots of the Mario Party DS purchasers won't be getting it day one, and that it'll have a higher than average day 1->week 1 advance, and lower than average week-over-week dropoff. It's possible that it won't do that, but that's possible kind of the same way that SMG doing 350k week one was "possible" -- it would be a reversal of expected trends if it happened.

ASH is a terrible comparison because it's a hardcore-oriented SRPG; stores know that essentially everyone will buy it day one, so one day of poor sales is enough for price collapse. Mario Party DS is in line with a performance that makes 500k probably a bit over-optimistic, but not by a wild margin.

twinturbo2 said:
In Japan? I doubt it, I don't think the obesity problem is as bad there as it is over here. WiiFit will sell like gangbusters in America, though.

A few people have brought this up before, but I'll reiterate it: fat people are not the ones who buy exercise fad items.

Hammer24 · Nov 9, 2007

Xisiqomelir said:
re: Wii Fit sub-discussion, I'm going to say 400k first week.

I say 92% of initial shipment

twinturbo2 · Nov 9, 2007

JoshuaJSlone said:
Every single week (when the systems are out to compare) X360 has been below PS3, which has been below Wii. This is the first time their order ever changed, so viewing sales with a line there's a crossing.

Thanks.

charlequin said:
A few people have brought this up before, but I'll reiterate it: fat people are not the ones who buy exercise fad items.

We'll see about that, I suppose...

tanod · Nov 9, 2007

PistolGrip said:
AC6, and Price drop and the launch of the Elite but still impressive.

fixed

Terrell · Nov 9, 2007

JoshuaJSlone said:
Every single week (when the systems are out to compare) X360 has been below PS3, which has been below Wii. This is the first time their order ever changed, so viewing sales with a line there's a crossing.

You forgot to mention that it's a Ghostbusters reference indicating that crossing said streams may cause cataclysmic disaster, in case he wasn't already blatantly aware of the reference.

DefectiveReject said:
any word on the continued sales of Galaxy?

And it seems like pretty low sales ACROSS all games at the moment. Is Japan broke or something??

Y'know, comparing year-over-year, there always does seem to be a bit of a downward trend shortly before December kicks in and Japan's holiday shopping season traditionally begins. But this is pretty much the worst we've seen of it, and this is assuming it is an actual shopping trend.

twinturbo2 · Nov 9, 2007

Terrell said:
You forgot to mention that it's a Ghostbusters reference indicating that crossing said streams may cause cataclysmic disaster, in case he wasn't already blatantly aware of the reference.

(Stolen from here...)

AlphaSnake · Nov 9, 2007

Ok...wtf @ PSP? I thought it'd be long done performing well.

charlequin · Nov 9, 2007

twinturbo2 said:
We'll see about that, I suppose...

It's just true. Generally speaking, the people who buy exercise equipment are either (a) slightly overweight, but not fat, people who want to look better, and (b) exercise fanatics. Actually obese people (generally speaking) never even consider that they might do exercise, as opposed to thinking they will but then actually not doing it like the people who do buy exercise equipment. :lol

Lobster · Nov 9, 2007

AlphaSnake said:
Ok...wtf @ PSP? I thought it'd be long done performing well.

PSP always performs well in hardware. Its just its software.

Segata Sanshiro · Nov 9, 2007

tanod said:
fixed

Didn't the Elite release on October 11th? I think its effects would pretty much have dissipated by now.

GaimeGuy · Nov 9, 2007

the industry has been in a 2-3 month long slump in japan, it seems...

I'm going to predict that Mario has a couple of 500k weeks this holiday in japan.

At the end of January, I'm going to say that Mario will be at 1.75-2 million in Japan.

And no, I'm not putting anything on the line

JoshuaJSlone · Nov 9, 2007

So I hadn't been keeping track of this, but I notice that PSP is just shy of this being its best year. One more week should do the trick.

Stumpokapow · Nov 9, 2007

JoshuaJSlone said:
So I hadn't been keeping track of this, but I notice that PSP is just shy of this being its best year. One more week should do the trick.

The DS by comparison is running pretty substantially behind 2006

Graphics Horse · Nov 9, 2007

Stumpokapow said:
The DS by comparison is running pretty substantially behind 2006

I'd imagine it'll overtake it by the end of the year though, assuming the numbers won't be so restricted this time.

Magicpaint · Nov 9, 2007

Graphics Horse said:
I'd imagine it'll overtake it by the end of the year though, assuming the numbers won't be so restricted this time.

Possible. Last year they could only afford 1.5 million units for the entire December month which was very limiting.

mugwhump · Nov 9, 2007

manzo said:
箱○始まったな！ :lol :lol

Now on to 2ch to see the GK meltdowns!

edit: From 2ch: :lol

｜　　　　　　　　　　　　　
｜ 　　　 　 　 　 　 　 　┌┐
│ 　　　 　 　 　 　 　 　(ﾟω&#65439
│ 　　 　　 　 　 　 　 　｜｜　
│ 　　　 　 　 　 　 　 　｜｜　
│　　　　　　　　┌┐　.　 ｜｜
│　　　 　 　 　（ ﾟ∀ﾟ） ＜Ooh! Wii sales are falling！
│　　 　　 　 　 ｜｜　 ｜｜　I'm going to win if things go like this！
│　　　 ┌┐　　 ｜｜　 ｜｜
│　　　(・ω&#12539　｜｜　 ｜｜
└───┴┴──┴┴───┴┴──
　　　360　　 PS3　　Wii

｜ 　 　 　 　 　 　 　｜｜
｜ 　 　　 　　　 　 　｜｜
│ 　 　 　 　 　　　 　｜｜
│ 　 　　 　　 　 　 　｜｜　
│ 　┌┐　 　　 　　 　｜｜　
│　(・ω&#12539 ┌┐ 　　 ｜｜
│　｜｜ 　（дﾟ ）.　 ｜｜
│　｜｜　 ｜｜　　 ｜｜　
│　｜｜　 ｜｜　　 ｜｜
│　｜｜　 ｜｜　　 ｜｜
└─┴┴──┴┴───┴┴──
　　　360　　 PS3　　Wii

LOL, I love their little faces. (*o*)

JoshuaJSlone · Nov 9, 2007

In other less-often-mentioned comparison news, with the recent slowdown it's looking more unlikely that Wii will beat PS2's best year of 2002, barring Wii Fit causing a DS2005-like explosion. Still seems pretty sure it will end ahead of PS2 2000 and 2001, though.

tanod · Nov 9, 2007

Segata Sanshiro said:
Didn't the Elite release on October 11th? I think its effects would pretty much have dissipated by now.

Supply constrained.

test_account · Nov 9, 2007

So the streams finally crossed. Who thought 360 would be the first one to do it

sankao · Nov 9, 2007

Is the 360 on track to beat 1 million by the end of 2010 ?

Mithos Yggdrasill · Nov 9, 2007

AlphaSnake said:
Ok...wtf @ PSP? I thought it'd be long done performing well.

The problem is always the same: excellent hardware sales and bad software sales. PSP reputation hasn't really changed in these years. Games: you buy a DS. Everything else: a PSP.

koam · Nov 9, 2007

There's something strange..
in these hardware sales..

Cheesemeister · Nov 9, 2007

sankao said:
Is the 360 on track to beat 1 million by the end of 2010 ?

On June 9th, 2008.

sankao · Nov 9, 2007

Cheesemeister said:
On June 9th, 2008.

So... it could finish at *gasp* 2 millions ?

Cheesemeister · Nov 9, 2007

sankao said:
So... it could finish at *gasp* 2 millions ?

On January 14th, 2009. If last week's sales persist unchanged for the entire duration. This is the Ace Combump, mind you.

koam said:
There's something strange..
in these hardware sales..

I ain't afraid of no ghosts.

Jokeropia · Nov 9, 2007

sankao said:
So... it could finish at *gasp* 2 millions ?

Well, it probably won't average at 17k per week permanently from now on.

JoshuaJSlone · Nov 9, 2007

sankao said:
Is the 360 on track to beat 1 million by the end of 2010 ?

In terms of pure per-week average since launch, pushed out 3 more years... yeah. However, the less successful a system is, the less likely it's going to keep notable sales into year 3 and beyond, so it's still an uphill battle.

For example, Famitsu has GCN selling just beyond 4 million units. How far into its life did it hit the half-point of 2 million? 68 weeks. For the original Xbox that half-point came at 46 weeks.

sankao · Nov 9, 2007

Cheesemeister said:
On January 14th, 2009. If last week's sales persist unchanged for the entire duration. This is the Ace Combump, mind you.

Ok, my bad, I thought your projection was based not on last week's sales but on the average weekly sales since launch.
Where does this latter average lead the 360 ?

Edit : JoshuaJSlone already elaborated on it.

Cheesemeister · Nov 9, 2007

sankao said:
Ok, my bad, I thought your projection was based not on last week's sales but on the average weekly sales since launch.
Where does this latter average lead the 360 ?

This was the 100th week on the MC charts for 360. Average weekly sales = 4,476.01 units.

At that rate, the 360 reaches 1 million on March 16th, 2010.

Lightning · Nov 9, 2007

What do you guys expect next week hardware sales to look like? Judging from the dates it will be 11/5-12/11 which would only mean 2 days sales for DW6, Ratchet and 40GB.

DW6 on the 360 might prevent it from falling so fast as well.

Raist · Nov 9, 2007

wow, impressive sales for the 360. Even BD didn't push it that high right ?

Also, the PS2 is dangerously close to dropping below 10k. Did it ever happen ? I guess not, but I'm not sure.

Other than that, rather stable sales. When is the 40GB released in japan again ?

Lightning · Nov 9, 2007

Raist said:
wow, impressive sales for the 360. Even BD didn't push it that high right ?

Also, the PS2 is dangerously close to dropping below 10k. Did it ever happen ? I guess not, but I'm not sure.

Other than that, rather stable sales. When is the 40GB released in japan again ?

Tomorrow along with Ratchet & Clank and DW6

JoshuaJSlone · Nov 9, 2007

Raist said:
wow, impressive sales for the 360. Even BD didn't push it that high right ?

Blue Dragon actually pushed it to double this.

Raist · Nov 9, 2007

JoshuaJSlone said:
Blue Dragon actually pushed it to double this.

Really ?

:lol

Memory broken.

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