Support NeoGAF

[botticus]

Tomorrow along with Ratchet & Clank and DW6

I thought the PS3's day was Sunday, 11/11.

Edit: Foiled by Japan time.

It would be terribly amusing if, as a result of the sales bump being spread across two reporting periods, it didn't manage to beat the Wii. But that will depend on how big the bump is and what the Wii drop off is.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Really ?

:lol

Memory broken.

Here are the weekly sales at a glance. This week was pretty close to the post-BD holiday weeks last year.

I thought the PS3's day was Sunday, 11/11.

You're saying the same thing. Japan time it's now early Saturday.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

What do you guys expect next week hardware sales to look like? Judging from the dates it will be 11/5-12/11 which would only mean 2 days sales for DW6, Ratchet and 40GB.

DW6 on the 360 might prevent it from falling so fast as well.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8521449&postcount=1601

Just 1 day though

 

[BigGreenMat]

I am utterly shocked!!! A fantastic Mario game only bumps Wii 10k? Ace Combat 6 bumps the 360 14k? Where am I? The Japanese are off their rocker. I would have sworn with New Super Mario Bros. that Mario Galaxy would do gangbusters. Color me crazy surprised.

 

[kisakiproject]

I got hardware right in both heh...lets see next week...


Oh, I have some interesting info. Cue in DENGEKI NUMBERS...

Super Mario Galaxy- 257.000 (45% sell through - which translates into around 570.000 units shipped)
Ace Combat 6 - 73.000 (75% sell through - 97.000 shipped)


And now cue in FAMITSU FIRST DAY NUMBERS...

NDS Mario Party DS - 90.000 (<20% sell through, 500k shipment)
PSP Akumajou Dracula X Chronicles - 8.000 (20k shipment)
PS2 NBA Live 08 - 4.000
NDS Yosumin DS - 2.000 (10% sell through, 20k shipment)
PSP NBA Live 08 - <1.000
360 NBA Live 08 - even worse, can't be counted

dw6 comes out tommorow, are we gonna get first day #s for it?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

dw6 comes out tommorow, are we gonna get first day #s for it?

Yes and no, the weekly numbers will only count their first day numbers but we won't get a first day info the day after like Thursday releases.

 

[Phife Dawg]

Come on, I can't believe Nintendo wouldn't be able to restock Mario Party DS (if needed) on time.

Well seeing that they're having problems with freaking DVDs I could totally see that happen.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

In terms of pure per-week average since launch, pushed out 3 more years... yeah. However, the less successful a system is, the less likely it's going to keep notable sales into year 3 and beyond, so it's still an uphill battle.

For example, Famitsu has GCN selling just beyond 4 million units. How far into its life did it hit the half-point of 2 million? 68 weeks. For the original Xbox that half-point came at 46 weeks.

But the 360 is selling better in 2007 than in 2006 right? I think MS has at least upgraded their status from "dead dead" to "mostly dead".

I think their next realistic objective would be stabilizing above 5k/week for the new year. The Elite and game bundles should help.

Who knows, there may be a point by mid-08 where the average for 'big' 360 releases is around 50-100k. I'm hoping Lost Odyssey can push at least Blue Dragon's numbers, which should give SE some hope for their 08 360 releases.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yeah, X360 certainly isn't dying as quickly as Xbox did. The interesting thing will be to see whether 2008 can match or exceed 2007. A consistent 5K doesn't seem very likely, though. Even GameCube dipped to such levels a bit in its third and fourth years.

 

[PantherLotus]

Random Thoughts
1. The Wii market share of console sales peaked at the end of August (08-26) at 69.74%. It has since lost market share every week (albeit very minute amounts between .02 and .25%) since then. PS3 is currently holding rather steady at around 23% of the market. I think the Wii will eventually settle in around 62% after a couple more years.

2. I think Japan would rather play a 2D mario.

3. I think WiiFit has potential to be a top 10 selling video game (of all time). At least in Japan.

4. I think that the DS/Wii relationship is extremely under utilized by Nintendo. The DS is going to be the most successful thing they've ever created when its all said and done and they simply aren't exploiting that enough. I'm talking about having DS channels, be it dl'able demos (coming i heard?), DS as a controller for different games, etc. etc. The DS should be to the Wii what ear buds are to the iPod. Inseparable.

5. I think 3rd parties in general have done a terrible job on the Wii. They have succumbed to the pressure of Nintendo, and stupidly followed their lead. They need to stand on their own with products that stand apart. Rather than cute tech demos, they need to make the same crap that sold well on the PS2. The same stuff they made that sold well on the DS. Stop getting caught up in the hype of non-games, mini-games, and quirky family shit. If they want to sell games, and lots of them, they need to stop trying to compete with Nintendo with similar cutesy bullshit games and start making the same games that have always established a hardcore buying presence on consoles: Fighters, Racers, RPGs, and Strategy games. I'm seeing way too few of all of those. The Wii needs a serious fighting game that isn't made by Nintendo. Don't give me DBZ. We're talkin Namco products. A serious racer. GT was possible on the PS2, right? Why hasn't there been ONE developer to step up and say, "Hey, we can do that!" We all know it can't be HD...but it doesn't have to be! Where are all the strategy war games that would be perfect with the wiimote as a pointer? Damn these 3rd parties are fucking pathetic. Damn them to hell.

 

[Lobster]

Did anyone post this?

Begins!

 

[Psychotext]

You know... I don't think I've ever seen a pie chart of the US market done by anyone. Nice charts though PantherLotus.

 

[Lobster]

You know... I don't think I've ever seen a pie chart of the US market done by anyone. Nice charts though PantherLotus.

A pie chart for the US market would be lost in a minute in the gigantic thread. MC threads are more calm.

 

[PantherLotus]

You know... I don't think I've ever seen a pie chart of the US market done by anyone. Nice charts though PantherLotus.

I used to do pretty awesome charts (modest ain't i?) for NPD threads. But that was before NPD pulled their schmuckery. I don't even bother with those threads at all anymore. The numbers in there are worthless. It's a shame that even hinting at where the real stuff might be found would be banworthy. (is it still?)

 

[laserbeam]

For all the doom and gloom towards the Wii its held steady near the 70% marketshare from nearly the get go

 

[PantherLotus]

A pie chart for the US market would be lost in a minute in the gigantic thread. MC threads are more calm.

bingo. the only way they'd ever be relevant is if they were in the first post, similar to the gig that cheesy has here with the MC threads.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Even charts using data to the nearest thousands for the monthly NPD hardware numbers would be worthwhile.

 

[Psychotext]

I used to do pretty awesome charts (modest ain't i?) for NPD threads. But that was before NPD pulled their schmuckery. I don't even bother with those threads at all anymore. The numbers in there are worthless. It's a shame that even hinting at where the real stuff might be found would be banworthy. (is it still?)

Some hints get lost in private messages sometimes.

 

[PantherLotus]

Some hints get lost in private messages sometimes.

and even then the complete shut down by the NPD can be felt.

 

[Psychotext]

and even then the complete shut down by the NPD can be felt.

I think NPD has a banhammer too! :lol

 

[Fredescu]

For all the doom and gloom towards the Wii its held steady near the 70% marketshare from nearly the get go

Most of the doom and gloom is in relation to console vs handheld, which that chart does not address.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

N64+GCN+Wii+DC+PS1+PS2+PS3+Xbox+X360
vs
GB+GBC+GBA+GBASP+GBM+DS+DSL+NGP/NGPC+PocketStation+PSP+WS+WSC+SC

Consoles are certainly losing share, but due to handhelds' dominance more than their own weakness. 2006 was a low year, but 2007 has a shot to be better than anything from at least 2000-2006.

EDIT: The graph is imperfect in some ways. In looking at why 2003 is a peak, I see that there was one of the two-week combined periods at the year change, and all of it went to 2003 instead of being split between 2002 and 2003. Who knows what other errors lurk.

 

[Eteric Rice]

N64+GCN+Wii+DC+PS1+PS2+PS3+Xbox+X360
vs
GB+GBC+GBA+GBASP+GBM+DS+DSL+NGP/NGPC+PocketStation+PSP+WS+WSC+SC

Consoles are certainly losing share, but due to handhelds' dominance more than their own weakness. 2006 was a low year, but 2007 has a shot to be better than anything from at least 2000-2006.

Holy fuck at handhelds. They're almost off the charts!

 

[PantherLotus]

Most of the doom and gloom is in relation to console vs handheld, which that chart does not address.

Could specify what you mean by doom and gloom? I want to make sure that we're talking about the same thing. Let's pick one discussion and stick with it:

1. Nintendo is killing the hardcore videogame industry
2. Japan hates hardcore games
3. Consoles are dead in Japan
4. Japan hates real games
5. 3rd parties can't succeed on Nintendo products
6. The Wii is doomed to fail/has already failed
7. et. al.

Let's pick one and run with it. We certainly didn't come to a sensible conclusion last week.

 

[Duderz]

Nice to see your graphs + analysis again, Panther. I missed those about the Media Create threads.

 

[PantherLotus]

Nice to see your graphs + analysis again, Panther. I missed those about the Media Create threads.

1. NFL started
2. Sales got boring (slowest part of the year)
3. A couple different unrelated bannings (posting hot chicks is banworthy, careful even if they're dressed!)
4. These threads have been in the shitter for a while now but I see a commitment from the mods for improvement. I think that's very promising. Last week's thread, despite what some might say, was actually an excellent discussion.
5. No more NPD as a distraction.
6. Thanks. I love the attention. Even if it's just people saying, "yeah I saw it and .... is interesting," it helps me realize that my time isn't wasted.
7. While I'm thinking about it, JJ, your work is fucking amazing. Please never stop.

 

[Innotech]

I appreciate what you and JJ SLone do in these threads Panther. It keeps them interesting.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Did anyone post this?

Begins!

Am I the only one who thinks that for the sake of videogaming this one needs to bomb?

 

[laserbeam]

I appreciate what you and JJ SLone do in these threads Panther. It keeps them interesting.

Agree with you 100% on those 2 guys

Now as far as the Doom and Gloom with handheld Versus Consoles. Maybe its actually a very healthy sign. consumer's are fed up with the same old and variety is needed. Obviously the diversity in the Handheld gaming area shows that people don't want the Same FPS clones.

Gaming as far as Consoles has been very restrictive in terms of Creativity and chances taken. They all rather copy each other and make the fps in a different way. Its healthy that Consumers may finally be fed up and saying change gaming back to diversity or we will not be buying your stuff.

 

[PantherLotus]

Would one say that the handheld craze is the savior of gaming?

 

[laserbeam]

Would one say that the handheld craze is the savior of gaming?

I think it could have negative impact if it overtakes consoles completely unless handhelds get to a point where they can completely replace consoles and we don't see nagatives.

The lesson I see in handhelds is the variety in gaming they offer makes them hugely popular. You have shooters,platformers,puzzle,rpg etc are all coming out on a constant basis.

Consoles majority of the titles every year is some brand of FPS with the occasional RPG that may be subpar or maybe good and a few other quality titles.

Console Gaming has in my opinion certainly become very narrow as far as variety. Spike TVs Game awards as big of a farce as they are clearly indicates the problem. Every Game of the Year Contender is a FPS basically.

A few Months back in EGM they interviewed the Bungie guys on New games etc. They for the most part were very critical of the FPS genre and even said they felt it was overdone and needs to be put to sleep for awhile.

In one interview they discuss their distaste for the genre right now and the desire to do new and better things but once the Microsoft money flashes they swallow their pride and make more fps even after saying the genre needs a rest and they want to do other things.

Narrow Vision of whats coming to consoles in console gaming is what will kill console gaming.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Am I the only one who thinks that for the sake of videogaming this one needs to bomb?

Have you watched any of the videos for it?

It actually looks like some of the games are a lot of fun.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

I think it could have negative impact if it overtakes consoles completely unless handhelds get to a point where they can completely replace consoles and we don't see nagatives.

As I said in the other MC thread, I think they already have replaced consoles: they're "sophisticated enough" to emulate console-style gameplay.

 

[PantherLotus]

Why Handhelds will destroy consoles in every market:
1. Hardware Cost (both to develop and to purchase)
2. Cost of Games (both to develop and to purchase)
3. Variety of games
4. Casual Market is interested. (aka 2D gaming)
5. Hardcore Market is interested. (aka old school gaming)
6. The current console race is an atrocity.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Have you watched any of the videos for it?

It actually looks like some of the games are a lot of fun.

Maybe some of the games. But Yoga? That DDR like Step on and off the balance board game? The soccerball dodge game? I really don't want to play those. Now the Skiing looks good but thats about it.

 

[laserbeam]

As I said in the other MC thread, I think they already have replaced consoles: they're "sophisticated enough" to emulate console-style gameplay.

I think your right for the most part. When we get the Next generation of Handhelds they will also be sporting plenty of graphical power too.

I thoroughly enjoy my DS primarily because of the vast variety of games available. I can go from NSMB to EBA to pretty much anything id want.

Console Gaming to stay any sort of relevant long term needs to adopt the variety handheld gaming offers at least in my mind or it will be casted into peoples minds As the Shooter Box etc and go into the sunset

 

[DrLazy]

5. I think 3rd parties in general have done a terrible job on the Wii. They have succumbed to the pressure of Nintendo, and stupidly followed their lead. They need to stand on their own with products that stand apart. Rather than cute tech demos, they need to make the same crap that sold well on the PS2. The same stuff they made that sold well on the DS. Stop getting caught up in the hype of non-games, mini-games, and quirky family shit. If they want to sell games, and lots of them, they need to stop trying to compete with Nintendo with similar cutesy bullshit games and start making the same games that have always established a hardcore buying presence on consoles: Fighters, Racers, RPGs, and Strategy games. I'm seeing way too few of all of those. The Wii needs a serious fighting game that isn't made by Nintendo. Don't give me DBZ. We're talkin Namco products. A serious racer. GT was possible on the PS2, right? Why hasn't there been ONE developer to step up and say, "Hey, we can do that!" We all know it can't be HD...but it doesn't have to be! Where are all the strategy war games that would be perfect with the wiimote as a pointer? Damn these 3rd parties are fucking pathetic. Damn them to hell.

Buy a 360 if you want the same old games. The Wii wasn't made to have Gran Turismo with tacked on motion controls. The Wii is for something new. The games that have sold well, such as Carnival Games, Mario Party, Rayman Raving Rabbids and Wii Play are exactly the type of "cute tech demos" games you seem to distaste. The public disagrees. So do I.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Buy a 360 if you want the same old games. The Wii wasn't made to have Gran Turismo with tacked on motion controls. The Wii is for something new. The games that have sold well, such as Carnival Games, Mario Party, Rayman Raving Rabbids and Wii Play are exactly the type of "cute tech demos" games you seem to distaste. The public disagrees. So do I.

I want less Carnival Games and more Zack & Wikis and King Quests.

 

[Kildace]

Am I the only one who thinks that for the sake of videogaming this one needs to bomb?

Wiifit might work but it will not draw significant support from third parties. They barely even make games for Wii, they're not going to require an optionnal controller. I really don't believe in the balance board beyond "Wii Fit".

Feel free to quote and ridicule me in 5 years when both the PS4 and the Xbox 720 come out with pressure-sensitive floor mats as controllers.

 

[DrLazy]

Am I the only one who thinks that for the sake of videogaming this one needs to bomb?

No you're not the only one, but you couldn't be more wrong. Hardcore games aren't going to disappear just because a successful fitness game is released.

 

[PantherLotus]

Buy a 360 if you want the same old games. The Wii wasn't made to have Gran Turismo with tacked on motion controls. The Wii is for something new. The games that have sold well, such as Carnival Games, Mario Party, Rayman Raving Rabbids and Wii Play are exactly the type of "cute tech demos" games you seem to distaste. The public disagrees. So do I.

What I want specifically has only a little do with why 3rd parties are failing on the Wii. Putting out more of what Nintendo is already doing is not the path to success.

 

[iidesuyo]

No you're not the only one, but you couldn't be more wrong. Hardcore games aren't going to disappear just because a successful fitness game is released.

People were saying the same thing a year ago, and now the Wii is flooded with Mini Games and Shovelware.

 

[PantherLotus]

People were saying the same thing a year ago, and now the Wii is flooded with Mini Games and Shovelware.

The problem is that they're convinced that the only way to success on the Wii is through the casual market. Didn't the same thing happen with the DS? (Feel the Magic?) I think what's happening, or what could happen, is a self-fulfilling prophecy where no old-school games are made (fighters/racers/rpgs) and then suddenly 3rd parties will wonder why their 2nd-tier casual shit isn't selling.

They need to do their own thing and do it well. Sega, surprisingly, is taking the lead. Square Enix still has a lot to prove. Most of the others are still milking their PS2 properties or producing casual shit. Or just shit.

 

[mepaco]

Buy a 360 if you want the same old games. The Wii wasn't made to have Gran Turismo with tacked on motion controls. The Wii is for something new. The games that have sold well, such as Carnival Games, Mario Party, Rayman Raving Rabbids and Wii Play are exactly the type of "cute tech demos" games you seem to distaste. The public disagrees. So do I.

That is the problem ... tacked on crap. Wii wasn't made to abandon traditional game types, it was made to expand the possibilities. The problem comes when developers think they can release the same old thing with waggle replacing a button press and graphics that show they didn't even try. That won't sell games to traditional gamers.

Take advantage of what is there or just don't do it. Though it didn't sell like gangbusters, one of my favorite examples is Madden. I have 07 for the Wii and I prefer it to the versions on the more graphically powerful consoles because they did a decent job with the controls and it added a lot to the experience. I also have CoD3 for Wii (a gift) and it is a piece of crap because they didn't put effort into it. This isn't to say that you need to use motion controls. Even Nintendo realizes that they don't work well for all game types (hence all the control options for SSBB) but until 3rd parties take the time and make quality games, I don't think it is fair to say that the userbase won't support traditional games, especially when we do have some proof to the contrary.

I think the main point is it takes effort, not waggle to make a good Wii game and developers are more than capable, they just don't for one reason or another. Anyway, I think Panther is right and developers trying to copy Nintendo and release similar games are mainly setting themselves up for failure. Bring your strengths to the console and you will probably do fine.

 

[PantherLotus]

Buy a 360 if you want the same old games. The Wii wasn't made to have Gran Turismo with tacked on motion controls. The Wii is for something new. The games that have sold well, such as Carnival Games, Mario Party, Rayman Raving Rabbids and Wii Play are exactly the type of "cute tech demos" games you seem to distaste. The public disagrees. So do I.

I'd also like to say the "buy a 360 if you want old school games" bit to be 100% schmuckery. Why can't we have/expect hardcore games on the best selling system in the world? Why should 3rd parties be afraid to make them?

Why would you perpetuate this by saying something like that? It's like you DON'T want those games? I want all kinds. But you can't in one breath tell me to go somewhere else if I want your typical console staple and then in the next breath tell me that 3rd parties aren't failing in this regard on the Wii.

 

[justchris]

I'd also like to say the "buy a 360 if you want old school games" bit to be 100% schmuckery. Why can't we have/expect hardcore games on the best selling system in the world? Why should 3rd parties be afraid to make them?

Why would you perpetuate this by saying something like that? It's like you DON'T want those games? I want all kinds. But you can't in one breath tell me to go somewhere else if I want your typical console staple and then in the next breath tell me that 3rd parties aren't failing in this regard on the Wii.

I agree with you, but don't forget marketing. There are a number of worthwhile 3rd party experiences available on Wii (I'm looking squarely at Zack & Wiki) which failed as much due to no one really knowing about it as it did to being a style of game that hasn't been popular on consoles or pcs recently. 3rd parties don't seem to have much faith in their new projects on the Wii, so not only are they stinting on development budgets, but also on marketing budgets, and even with my suckass business sense, I know there's no way for that to work.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Feel free to quote and ridicule me in 5 years when both the PS4 and the Xbox 720 come out with pressure-sensitive floor mats as controllers.

Haha. mkay:lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

The DS is a great system that many people enjoy not just for the new twists its innovations bring in games, but also because it has a strong, diverse library full of new types of games and traditional games alike. The Wii ought to be the same.

 

[ethelred]

The DS is a great system that many people enjoy not just for the new twists its innovations bring in games, but also because it has a strong, diverse library full of new types of games and traditional games alike. The Wii ought to be the same.

Yes.

 

[PantherLotus]

I agree with you, but don't forget marketing. There are a number of worthwhile 3rd party experiences available on Wii (I'm looking squarely at Zack & Wiki) which failed as much due to no one really knowing about it as it did to being a style of game that hasn't been popular on consoles or pcs recently. 3rd parties don't seem to have much faith in their new projects on the Wii, so not only are they stinting on development budgets, but also on marketing budgets, and even with my suckass business sense, I know there's no way for that to work.

Without playing it, I have to assume that Z&W is in the same vein as SotC or Okami as far as appeal to the more dedicated gamer. But to be fair, the latter are both derivatives of Zelda. The former is a derivative a much older style of game. Still, regardless of any of their sales, their presence creates a snowball effect for hardcore gamers, or even for middle-of-the-road gamers (not casual but not hardcore).

Look to the PS2. Would any person by that system for God of War alone? Perhaps. What about SotC, or Okami, Katamari, or numerous other surprisingly-low selling works of art? They aren't system movers by themselves. But collectively, they become an unstoppable force of awesomeness that not even the most cynical of graphic whores can dismiss.

This is what 3rd parties cannot forget. It's not the first game that sells pretty badly. It might not even be the second (or the sequel). It's the whole thing when viewed together which makes a certain system irresistible. But what they are doing currently is shooting themselves in the foot. They need to start treating the market leader like the market leader, not like some foreign system with a foreign customer base that they've never worked with before.

We're all the same people. We already own the fucking system. Yeah, some families do too. How's selling them games that they've never heard of workin out for ya? Now gimme what I want. If you do, you'll sustain the system long enough to convice those other schmucks that there is more to gaming than minigames and brain teasers.

And maybe then you'll make some fucking money on this damned thing. No more excuses. It has nearly a 2.5 million lead with 6 mill consoles sold in Japan alone. Get to fucking work already.