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[plagiarize]

Dengeki has Umbrella Chronicles at 109K.

They also have Biohazard 4 Wii Edition at 134K LTD.

the party continues!

survival horror is Wii!

 

[Doc Evils]

nice start for heavenly sword.

 

[gkryhewy]

Um... no. It'll be worse than Mario.

nuh uh!

Anyway, I agree with cvxfreak. It's been number 1 on amazon.co.jp for awhile now as a pre-order. While this doesn't mean a lot, it means something, especially since amazon.co.jp usually skews to the hardcore.

 

[test_account]

Sounds like S-E has been quick off the mark re-stocking the game then...unless the 70% sell-through percentage was off. If re-stocking is the case, then it definitely bodes well for its weekend sales. I reckon perhaps ~550,000 by the next M-C update.

I dont think its possible to restock this fast. First they launch it, then they track how many that were sold and calculate if a new shippment is needed, then ship the games to the store. Doing all this is less than a day would be incredible I would rather guess that the first shippment is higher than expected, or that some stores simply ordered more copies than others.

 

[Koren]

Oops. Sorry for the mistake. Did Camelot made Mario Tennis ? I remember that Tennis is better than Baseball.

They've done Tennis and Golf on all Nintendo platforms starting N64/GBC. But they left to work on PC, and are now back to work with Capcom on Golf again (good news for us )

Baseball is Namco (I was surprised it was so-so because I thought it was people from Pro Yakyu), Football is people from Soccer Slam. Basketball is Square-Enix.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

This thread needs some...

I am very sad.

 

[jesusraz]

I dont think its possible to restock this fast. First they launch it, then they track how many that were sold and calculate if a new shippment is needed, then ship the games to the store. Doing all this is less than a day would be incredible I would rather guess that the first shippment is higher than expected, or that some stores simply ordered more copies than others.

Or perhaps the sending out of stock was staggered. But yeah, I get your point...I'm getting a bit ahead of myself! Anyway, I still go with a 550,000 prediction for the first week

As for Wii Fit, I wouldn't be surprised to see it do around 250,000-300,000 in its first week.

 

[Defuser]

Poor Mario & Sonic. And poor Sega.

so much for 4 million copies sold....

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

1st day

DQ4 - 360,000 (70%)

PES 2008
PS2 - 155,000
PS3 - 107,000
360 - 7,000

FF XI
PS2 - 71,000
360 - 4,000

Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games - 15,000

Mega Man Star Force 2 - 40,000

Dino King (DS) - 40,000

Wow at Dragon Quest. Maybe I was wrong when I said that DS was in decline. A Million is very likely now. And probably DS > 100k this week once again.

In contrast I was absolutely right when I said that Mario & Sonic at the Olimpics would have bombed. I always said it and I'm not sad because it is a mediocre game. BUY Mario Galaxy instead ! And :lol to sega and their 4 millions worldwide.

Anyway, I'm not almost sure that Wii Fit is going to be huge. Probably 300-400k in its first day.

 

[Stumpokapow]

so much for 4 million copies sold....

Even accounting for the fact that it's 4 million worldwide split between two platforms, that's still 600,000 per platform. For 15,000 first day sales to turn into 600,000 lifetime sales, the game would have to have >= Brain Training legs.

 

[Vinnk]

"Vinnk's Village" Anecdotal Report

Christmas is ramping up in the Japanese shops and it seems the storeowners know what people want. Video games. Here is what I discovered this week.

I was asked to look for Wii, PS3, Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles and Mario&Sonic. I visited the stores on Thursday, November 22nd, 2007.

Jusco
Wii: 2
PS3: 12
B:UC: 1
Mario&Sonic: 6

Youme Town
Wii: 2
PS3: 9
B:UC: Sold Out
Mario&Sonic: 11

Mr. Max
Wii: 1
PS3: Sold out
B:UC: Sold out
Mario&Sonic: 3

Book-Net
Wii: 1
PS3: 7
B:UC: Sold out
Mario&Sonic: 4

Goody
Wii: 1
PS3: 8
B:UC: Sold out (or never had it)
Mario&Sonic: 2

Best Denki
Wii: 6
PS3: 15
B:UC: 2
Mario&Sonic: 7

Wanpaku
Wii: 2
PS3: 6
B:UC: 2
Mario&Sonic: 14

Famicom Dojo
Wii: 1
PS3: 2
B:UC: Sold Out
Mario&Sonic: 1

Yamada Denki
Wii: 2
PS3: 16
B:UC: Sold Out
Mario&Sonic: 8

TOTALS:
Wii: 18 (last week 21)
PS3: 75 (last week 62)
B:UC: 5 (last week 24)
Mario&Sonic: 56

NOTES:

1. Since about mid-August the Wii has not been supply constrained. You won’t see tall stacks of them here like you will in Osaka or Tokyo, but if you want one you can get one. Interestingly enough, a few stores HAVE sold out of the new Wii (the one that includes the “grip covers” for the Wiimotes)

2. DS is not supply constrained. You still might have to go to a few stores to find your perfect color, but in general anyone can get a DS who wants one. I don’t count individual units anymore because there is no longer a point in doing so. I will count them again around the holidays. Or earlier if something changes that would make those numbers worthwhile or interesting. The same goes for the PSP, which is just as plentiful if not more.

3. In my city Super Mario Galaxy hasn’t had a “price collapse” yet, but I am starting to see several used copies. The stores still have so many new copies on the shelves, so if sales don’t pick up, it seems a price drop will be inevitable.

4. PS3 is being positioned as the system to buy for Christmas. In Yamada Denki they set up a big Christmas tree with PS3 systems underneath it. The staff was also really talking up the system. This one guy came in to buy the PS2 version of Winning 11, but was talked into buying a PS3 by the salesperson. This is very different from the atmosphere a few months ago.

5. There might be more Wii and PS3 systems than I am reporting. I count what is on the floor, in the display cases and on the back shelves that I can see, but stores might have more systems in backrooms out of view.

6. I can find Opoona at every store. Just sitting there totally ignored. Koei totally over shipped this one.

7. I have been hearing about massive in-store pushes for WiiFit but there is nothing like that in my neck of the woods. Just a few posters up in the department stores. However, the TV ads have apparently been making an impression. My Fiancée had no idea that SMG was coming out, but she and even her Mom know about WiiFit. It seems the ads are being showing during a lot of the programs that have high female viewing figures.

8. As for DQIV there were ample copies of the game at every store. But just during my short time checking out the stores, I saw a lot being bought.

9. Mario&Sonic didn't seem to generate a lot of interest. No one was watching the video playing in the kiosk; no one was picking up the game case. According to the staff at Wanpaku, no one was buying it either.

10. This week the local Otaku are talking once again about Nights. One guy is also pretty stoked about No More Heroes. He bought a Wii this week in preparation for it. These guys aren't really into Winning 11. None of them bought it. One guy is trying to decide if he wants to re-buy a 360. He bought it for Blue Dragon and sold it back after he finished the game. He wants to play Ace Combat but is low on cash.

11. Biohazard: Umbrella Chronicles is very hard to find these days. The Zapper bundle is impossible to find. Several stores have also sold out of the Ghost Squad Zapper bundle and my guess is that this was influenced by Biohazard.

Previous Reports:

November 15th, 2007
October 15th, 2007
September 6th, 2007
August 30th, 2007
August 11th,2007
July 26th, 2007
July 19th, 2007
July 12th, 2007
July 5th, 2007
June 28th, 2007
June 21st, 2007
June 14th, 2007
June 7th, 2007
May 30th, 2007
May 24th, 2007
May 17th, 2007
May 10th, 2007

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

7. I have been hearing about massive in-store pushes for WiiFit but there is nothing like that in my neck of the woods. Just a few posters up in the department stores. However, the TV ads have apparently been making an impression. My Fiancée had no idea that SMG was coming out, but she and even her Mom know about WiiFit. It seems the ads are being showing during a lot of the programs that have high female viewing figures.

I said that marketing was the big problem. Nintendo isn't doing anything to promote its console and its games, where Sony is doing very damned thing to promote he PS3. I think that Nintendo should make attention, because if the wind is turning again, they are to blame for their marketing mistakes.

 

[Tenbatsu]

Actually I saw TONS of DQIVs in shops today.

Nobody queue for DQ now in Japan like they used to back then?

 

[Parl]

Well, DS hardware is in decline, sort of. Meaning, it's stable now, but compared to months ago, it has obviously declined.

The reason for this is most likely saturation with the huge games with long legs like Brain Training, Brain Training 2, New Super Mario Bros, Animal Crossing, Pokemon D/P, Mario Kart DS, etc. These games were the life of DS huge sales. These games are still selling, but not as much as they used to, which is why DS sales are no longer so big.

The reason for the fairly instant decline in DS sales, I suggest, was because DS used to be supply constrained, and it had a backlog of demand from people couldn't just go and buy it. The amount of new demand each week was likely less than the actual sales, with many of the sale coming from people who wanted a DS before they could get one, and thus, this backlog of demand got smaller and smaller as they kept getting one. A few weeks before DS sales went down to 80k per week, there were only a few hundred thousand people left who wanted a DS there and then, who couldn't get one, and for the following weeks, this went down until all the backlog had been fulfilled. And from then on, all DS sales were from new demand for that week, which seems to be around 80k per week.

The new demand per week for the period before the end of the supply constraints was probably also around 80k per week, but DS continued to sell above 80k per week because there was a backlog to fulfill too. At the start of the year, this backlog may have been in the millions, but is has decreased to 0.

Nintendo should be able to push sales above 80k per week though. Implementation of their plans to have one DS per person rather than one DS per household, which may involve specific software which makes you want to have a DS with you nearly all the time, like you would a mobile phone. Nintendo is probably working on such software now. A price drop may help in this strategy, and will also help in general, to boost sales.

I think DS may have another wave, but it requires new multi-million selling software and/or a price drop.

 

[SouthernDragon]

I suppose they figure the Wii will sell itself while the PS3 needs all the help it can get.

...

PUSH SMG, BITCHES!

Is it ok to say to them:

Anata wa totemo bakaro!

Yes?

 

[sprsk]

I said that marketing was the big problem. Nintendo isn't doing anything to promote its console and its games, where Sony is doing very damned thing to promote he PS3. I think that Nintendo should make attention, because if the wind is turning again, they are to blame for their marketing mistakes.

This is not true.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don't really know what to expect from We Love Golf, but the developer does have golf pedigree, and the other Japanese-made Wii golf game, Super Swing Golf, dragged itself past 50K long ago. Well, the other Japanese-made Wii golf game that isn't part of Wii Sports.

For 15,000 first day sales to turn into 600,000 lifetime sales, the game would have to have >= Brain Training legs.

Weeelll, to be picky, not quite. I'm not sure what Brain Age's first day was, but it turned a 44K first week to a 3.5 million (so far) total. If M&S had greater legs than Brain Age, it might be enough to reach the 4 million in one territory on one system. But yeah, it would need monster legs to make up its fair share of that 4 million goal.

 

[sprsk]

Nobody queue for DQ now in Japan like they used to back then?

People don't queue for ports of remakes, even if it is one of the most popular in the series. The game sold first day about what I thought.

I think DS is at it's saturation point right now, and it would be pretty reasonable to start talking about the next DS in the coming year.

Wii sales, I dunno, it's mostly a software problem I think.

 

[BishopLamont]

I said that marketing was the big problem. Nintendo isn't doing anything to promote its console and its games, where Sony is doing very damned thing to promote he PS3. I think that Nintendo should make attention, because if the wind is turning again, they are to blame for their marketing mistakes.

Just because his wife didn't know about SMG coming out, doesn't mean Nintendo didn't market it. Many have said there have/are plenty of ads.

 

[gregor7777]

survival horror is Wii!

 

[schuelma]

Impressed with WE PS3 numbers actually- I thought the discrepancy between that and PS2 would be much bigger.

Mario and Sonic bomba, no huge shock.

 

[gkryhewy]

[/QUOTE]

Oh shit, I didn't know Sirius Black was on the Silent Hill team.

 

[Vinnk]

Just because his wife didn't know about SMG coming out, doesn't mean Nintendo didn't market it. Many have said there have/are plenty of ads.

Yes. Sorry if I was unclear. My girl didn't know it was coming out but that dosn't mean no one knew about it. The gamers I know knew about it, they just didn't buy it. She is not a gamer and though she may see the ads they leave little to no impact on her. But WiiFit on the other hand is something very new and people are talking about it. Whether or not that translates to sales is yet to be seen, but people are noticing.

 

[ethelred]

DQ4 - 360,000 (70%)
PES 2008
PS2 - 155,000
PS3 - 107,000
360 - 7,000
FF XI
PS2 - 71,000
360 - 4,000
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games - 15,000
Mega Man Star Force 2 - 40,000
Dino King (DS) - 40,000

Very big week. Four games will be above 100k, Star Force 2 and (surprisingly!) Dino King should be at ~70k, and there should be pretty decent continuing numbers for Musou and Famista (and Game Center, if it wasn't having stock issues).

I think DS is at it's saturation point right now, and it would be pretty reasonable to start talking about the next DS in the coming year.

Given the major stuff still in development, at both Nintendo and with third parties, I think that's still too early. It's not even saturated, going by its sales. It's not in a constant state of sell out and weekly unprecedented of enormity, but... its current numbers are still unprecedented when compared to any other non-DS system. The PS2 was never doing this 70k a week every week thing.

Impressed with WE PS3 numbers actually- I thought the discrepancy between that and PS2 would be much bigger.

Fun exercise: Compare the gap between the PS2 and PS3 sales of Winning Eleven against the gap between the PS2 and Wii sales of Power Pro, or the gap between the PS2 and Wii versions of Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3. Then go reread all the spin!

 

[PantherLotus]

I think DS is at it's saturation point right now, and it would be pretty reasonable to start talking about the next DS in the coming year.

From what I understand, design is already done.

 

[plagiarize]

i find it odd that capcom are having success with M rated games on the system when something like Zack and Wiki, and Konami stuff like Dewey's Adventure stagnate.

i think there's a strong argument for making the kind of games that Nintendo DOESN'T being a way to success... and the moderately surprising performance of Ghost Squad only strengthens that feeling... but it could just be a 'light guns YAY!' thing.

 

[PantherLotus]

i think there's a strong argument for making the kind of games that Nintendo DOESN'T being a way to success... and the moderately surprising performance of Ghost Squad only strengthens that feeling... but it could just be a 'light guns YAY!' thing.

I've been making that argument for a while now, and I agree. Hardcore audiences are built on momentum. Not in a day, not on a single title.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Fun exercise: Compare the gap between the PS2 and PS3 sales of Winning Eleven against the gap between the PS2 and Wii sales of Power Pro, or the gap between the PS2 and Wii versions of Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3. Then go reread all the spin!

I agree the Winning Eleven PS3 numbers are good, but I also imagine the actual difference between the PS2 and PS3 product is much bigger than that between the PS2/Wii versions of Power Pro and DBZ.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Realistically Nintendo's next portable should probably be unveiled in late 2008, released in late 2009, with the DS phasing out in 2010 and to some extent in 2011. That'd give it five full years of life before being replaced and one or two years to phase out.

But what to put in the DS, I have no idea. Obviously most people agree that GCN level hardware is reasonable. Motion control and/or rumble are likely (Kirby's Tilt 'n' Tumble, Wario-Ware Twisted show that Nintendo is behind this). DS backwards compatibility. Virtual Handheld on built-in storage. Friend codes continued. Given the Apple mystique that Nintendo wants to capture, I expect an iPhone style rotatable screen and possibly a multi-touch addition to the touch screen.

 

[gregor7777]

Realistically Nintendo's next portable should probably be unveiled in late 2008, released in late 2009, with the DS phasing out in 2010 and to some extent in 2011. That'd give it five full years of life before being replaced and one or two years to phase out.

But what to put in the DS, I have no idea. Obviously most people agree that GCN level hardware is reasonable. Motion control and/or rumble are likely (Kirby's Tilt 'n' Tumble, Wario-Ware Twisted show that Nintendo is behind this). DS backwards compatibility. Virtual Handheld on built-in storage. Friend codes continued. Given the Apple mystique that Nintendo wants to capture, I expect an iPhone style rotatable screen and possibly a multi-touch addition to the touch screen.

Wait, GameCube hardware?

We're talking about the sucessor to slightly above SNES hardware here.

That isn't realistic.

 

[PantherLotus]

Fun exercise: Compare the gap between the PS2 and PS3 sales of Winning Eleven against the gap between the PS2 and Wii sales of Power Pro, or the gap between the PS2 and Wii versions of Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 3. Then go reread all the spin!

I'm gonna need a chart for this one. Or at least some numbers that don't require searching.

 

[Vinnk]

Wait, GameCube hardware?

We're talking about the sucessor to slightly above SNES hardware here.

That isn't realistic.

I think the GBA compares closer to the SNES.

The DS is somewhere around PSX/N64 level. Not with quite the capability of either of these systems, but far beyond the SNES.

 

[swerve]

I said that marketing was the big problem. Nintendo isn't doing anything to promote its console and its games, where Sony is doing very damned thing to promote he PS3. I think that Nintendo should make attention, because if the wind is turning again, they are to blame for their marketing mistakes.

Calm down. There is nothing at all wrong with their Japanese marketing for Wii. Nintendo has commanded a solid and unbroken lead for a full year, without a pricedrop and with no change in marketing strategy, and their sales are not being affected (as Iwata has long said) by boosts in sales for the other platforms.

If either the 360 Elite sales from a few weeks back or the new models of PS3 last week had seen the Wii sales drop significantly from the month before, then maybe there'd be reason to change marketing direction and think about the pricing, etc. As it stands, they are still printing money without really breaking a sweat. God knows what would happen if they actually started delivering on the potential .

 

[ethelred]

Wait, GameCube hardware?

We're talking about the sucessor to slightly above SNES hardware here.

That isn't realistic.

The DS is just slightly above SNES hardware? Hahaha. God, I love these threads.

The DS is somewhere around PSX/N64 level. Not with quite the capability of either of these systems, but far beyond the SNES.

My understanding is that the system is technically more powerful than either the N64 or the PSX, but it lacks a few specific distinguishing features that each of those two had which supplemented some of their software. So it'd be like if you combined the two into a single system but took away a couple of their individual strengths. Its overall power is comparable to the two.

It hasn't been pushed as hard as the PSX, though, that's for sure. The calibre of teams and the resource budgeting has never approached some of the top tier PSX stuff.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Wait, GameCube hardware? We're talking about the sucessor to slightly above SNES hardware here. That isn't realistic.

The GBA is roughly equivalent to the SNES; hence all of the SNES ports including Yoshi's Island, Super Mario World, Final Fantasy IV/V/VI, etc. The DS is roughly equivalent to the PSX/N64; hence all of the N64/PSX ports including Hoshigami, Mario 64, Ridge Racer, Resident Evil, DQIVR.

I honestly expect the DS successor to have GCN-level hardware. It'll still use cards though, as card sizes drop. I expect 8 and 16 Gigabit cards will be the sweet spot price-wise when the DS followup is released, which is 1-2 Gigabytes, which will allow for as much as the GCN.

Or, in nerd speak:
SNES Processor: 3.58 MHz
N64 Processor: 93 MHz
PSX Processor: 33 MHz
DS Processors: One @ 67MHz, One @ 33MHz

Mb = Megabit.

SNES Cart size: 2Mb - 48Mb
N64 Cart size: 32Mb - 512Mb
PSX CD size: <=5000Mb (some games multi-cd)
DS Card size: 32Mb - 2048Mb

SNES Ram: 1Mbit
N64 Ram: 32Mbit
PSX Ram: 16Mbit
DS Ram: 32Mbit

ethelred is right, though, the DS is partially kneecapped in terms of the actual capabilities built in to its GPU... and obviously the DS is lower res than either the PSX or the N64.

 

[JohnsonUT]

How many price drops have the DS and Wii had in Japan during their lifetimes? Does Nintendo have the ability to do a price drop in order to stimulate sales if needed?

 

[Stumpokapow]

How many price drops have the DS and Wii had in Japan during their lifetimes? Does Nintendo have the ability to do a price drop in order to stimulate sales if needed?

Wii: 0
DS: 0

 

[ksamedi]

Nobody should expect a new DS announcement with these sales, they are still at amazing levels. I think the DS will last atleast 10 years and become the most succesfull system of all time.

 

[PantherLotus]

Does Nintendo have the ability to do a price drop in order to stimulate sales if needed?

1. Yes.
2. Not needed.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

This is not true.

Whm, what ? That the wind is changing again or that Nintendo isn't marketing their products as well as Sony is ?

 

[Lightning]

1st day

DQ4 - 360,000 (70%)

PES 2008
PS2 - 155,000
PS3 - 107,000
360 - 7,000

FF XI
PS2 - 71,000
360 - 4,000

Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games - 15,000

Mega Man Star Force 2 - 40,000

Dino King (DS) - 40,000

Interesting 1st day numbers.

I wonder why Microsoft bother with shit like that happening. Those numbers are pathetic, even for 360 standards.

Nice for PS3 to be so close to the PS2 though, that surprised me a bit.

Another Wii game bites the dust (Mario & Sonic)

And excellent DQIV numbers. It's a port afterall.

 

[max-pain]

Wii: 0
DS: 0

DS: -1

Because the DS price actually increased (from 15000 yen (DS) to 16800 yen (DSL)).

 

[Stumpokapow]

Also, for what it's worth, DQ4 PSX sold 1.14 million per Moor-Angol.

We can fairly logically say that DQ games do between 50%-70% of their final sales in week one. So realistically to match the PSX remake, the DS version should do 570k-798k in week one.

I'm expecting more like 450k personally, and I'd hazard a guess that lifetime the remake does around 750k-800k. Certainly not bad.

 

[sprsk]

Whm, what ? That the wind is changing again or that Nintendo isn't marketing their products as well as Sony is ?

People just weren't sold on Mario Galaxy thats all. I mean, its still holding strong at 40k. Animal Crossing and Brain Training sold that much every week for a good year.

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

I agree the Winning Eleven PS3 numbers are good, but I also imagine the actual difference between the PS2 and PS3 product is much bigger than that between the PS2/Wii versions of Power Pro and DBZ.

Isn't this always going to be true because of the nature of the hardware (Wii vs PS3)?

That being said, PES 2008 is virtually identical between the 3 main versions (PS2/PS3/360) with minor cosmetic differences, which is probably the reason for the slight sales stagnation. Konami has simply refused to make any 'next-gen' changes or improvements to the formula.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Nobody should expect a new DS announcement with these sales, they are still at amazing levels. I think the DS will last atleast 10 years and become the most succesfull system of all time.

Outside the 10-years thing (too much for me), I agree: DS has slowed down, sure, but its sales are still incredible. And this without talking about Europe (crazy DS sales) and NA.

Dragon Quest IV convinced me once again that DS IS the system where games sell now (and not only now, but since 2-3 years in Japan). It was just an impression that its capacity to sell games was reduced, because of FFTA2. But now, it's clear I was wrong, because probably DQ IV will sell more then FFIII and maybe more then Jokers.

Wii is the big problem now: my opinion is that Wii Fit will "save" the console in Japan, in the sense that sales will go up (significantly) once again. Without Wii Fit, I doubt that any hardcore games would have changed something. As I repeated some weeks ago, Wii's hardcore userbase is SMALLER (but not too much) then the Gamecube's one and that's why sales of Twilight Princess and Galaxy have been so pathetic. Probably the hardcore is still playing PS2 and waiting to make a definitive choice.

And this introduce the discussion about PS3: no one can deny that PS3 is showing some promising sign (both software, considered the good attach rate of some recent games, and hardware, in the last two weeks), but next week will be interesting to see if PES can keep its sales above the Wii or not. In any cases, PS3 is not in the position to be leader in anything, if it cannot recover the Wii and the path is long (2.5 millions) !

People just weren't sold on Mario Galaxy thats all. I mean, its still holding strong at 40k. Animal Crossing and Brain Training sold that much every week for a good year.

I understand your point, but I have the impression that next week its sales will be around 20k and the next one 10k....and then it will finish like Twilight Princess: bad.

 

[marc^o^]

Wii is the big problem now: my opinion is that Wii Fit will "save" the console in Japan, in the sense that sales will go up (significantly) once again. Without Wii Fit, I doubt that any hardcore games would have changed something.

Wii doesn't need to be saved by Wiifit. Christmas is almost there. Smash Bros and Mario Kart are around the corner. DS connectivity is about to be a reality. There will be new colors, a price drop. And we all know Nintendogs is coming.

 

[donny2112]

Realistically Nintendo's next portable should probably be unveiled in late 2008, released in late 2009, with the DS phasing out in 2010 and to some extent in 2011.

That would be like Sony releasing the PS3 in late 2003 or 2004. The DS is not dragging in sales here. Releasing a successor within the next two years would be truncating the sales potential that the DS offers.

That'd give it five full years of life before being replaced and one or two years to phase out.

The GB had nine years. Don't fall into the "every five years a new console is released" trap.

1st day

DQ4 - 360,000 (70%)

Past DQ remakes:

GBC Dragon Quest I&II  270K    75K   40K  ...  740K (20001231)
GBC Dragon Quest III   154K    59K   60K  ...  611K (20011230)
SFC Dragon Quest III   409K   136K   95K  ...  967K (19971228)
PS1 Dragon Quest IV    621K   143K   72K  ...  1.17 million (20021229)
PS2 Dragon Quest V    1049K   248K   97K  ...  1.61 million (20041226)

1st day

PES 2008
PS2 - 155,000
PS3 - 107,000
360 - 7,000

PES 2007
PS2 - 616K (2-week period)
360 - 16K (3-week period)

1st day

Mega Man Star Force 2 - 40,000

Star Force 1 1st week - 77K

It was at 532K in mid-2007.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Wii doesn't need to be saved by Wiifit. Christmas is almost there. Smash Bros and Mario Kart are around the corner. DS connectivity is about to be a reality. There will be new colors, a price drop. And we all know Nintendogs is coming.

I put "save" between quotation marks for something....

And what you mean with "Nintendogs is coming" ?

 

[Stumpokapow]

That would be like Sony releasing the PS3 in late 2003 or 2004. The DS is not dragging in sales here. Releasing a successor within the next two years would be truncating the sales potential that the DS offers.

The GB had nine years. Don't fall into the "every five years a new console is released" trap.

The GB had no major competition. The GBA did not last nine years. The reason why we have a six year console cycle is because of competitive pressure. I expect the same thing will happen for the DS/PSP.

There's also the aspect of... there's only so much you can do in terms of IP. To some extent, launching a new handheld allows Nintendo to revisit ALL of the franchises they've done on the DS. A new Mario Kart, a new Animal Crossing, a new MP:H, a new WarioWare... Not that they can't do any of these with the DS, but I think it's much easier to make a quick buck with new systems than with second installments for current systems.

Plus, there's the iPod thing. Apple has no major competition, but by voluntarily introducing new upgrades to their product, they keep ahead of themselves. The iPod has only gotten bigger as a brand with the iPod Color, Video, and now Touch. The same can be true for the DS.

For my perspective, I'm happily buying DS games at a rate of ~40 per year so far. The only complaint I have is textures/screen resolution (Phantom Hourglass, Final Fantasy Fables suffer IMMENSELY from this. Also, the sprites in FFXII:RW). I'll still be buying DS games eight or nine years from now as I try to catch up on the stuff I missed.

But if I were Nintendo, I'd be aiming for late 2009.