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[ksamedi]

The GB had no major competition. The GBA did not last nine years. The reason why we have a six year console cycle is because of competitive pressure. I expect the same thing will happen for the DS/PSP.

There's also the aspect of... there's only so much you can do in terms of IP. To some extent, launching a new handheld allows Nintendo to revisit ALL of the franchises they've done on the DS. A new Mario Kart, a new Animal Crossing, a new MP:H, a new WarioWare... Not that they can't do any of these with the DS, but I think it's much easier to make a quick buck with new systems than with second installments for current systems.

For my perspective, I'm happily buying DS games at a rate of ~40 per year so far. The only complaint I have is textures/screen resolution (Phantom Hourglass, Final Fantasy Fables suffer IMMENSELY from this. Also, the sprites in FFXII:RW). I'll still be buying DS games eight or nine years from now as I try to catch up on the stuff I missed.

But if I were Nintendo, I'd be aiming for late 2009.

There is still so much left to do with the DS, 2009 is not the date for a new Nintendo handheld. I don't think that Sony is complaining about its sales either so I doubt they will release a new one soon. Besides, Iwata said that they had absolutely no plans for a new handheld so your theory can't be right, and really, the DS has no competition.

 

[thestopsign]

There is still so much left to do with the DS, 2009 is not the date for a new Nintendo handheld. I don't think that Sony is complaining about its sales either so I doubt they will release a new one soon. Besides, Iwata said that they had absolutely no plans for a new handheld so your theory can't be right, and really, the DS has no competition.

I bet we start hearing about Nintendo and Sony's new handhelds in 2009, but they won't launch until late 2010. I think both are trying to make as much money off of what they have now, because both of them are in a fairly comfortable position. Nintendo will also probably have more software baking in the oven for launch and the earlier life cycle of the system so they don't have the huge drought that they had with the DS.

 

[PantherLotus]

 

[Parl]

Huh?

 

[wazoo]

For my perspective, I'm happily buying DS games at a rate of ~40 per year so far.

Aside from Zelda, I did not buy anything this year everybody do what they want with their money, but 40 games per year on DS ??

 

[gregor7777]

The GBA is roughly equivalent to the SNES; hence all of the SNES ports including Yoshi's Island, Super Mario World, Final Fantasy IV/V/VI, etc. The DS is roughly equivalent to the PSX/N64; hence all of the N64/PSX ports including Hoshigami, Mario 64, Ridge Racer, Resident Evil, DQIVR.

I honestly expect the DS successor to have GCN-level hardware. It'll still use cards though, as card sizes drop. I expect 8 and 16 Gigabit cards will be the sweet spot price-wise when the DS followup is released, which is 1-2 Gigabytes, which will allow for as much as the GCN.

Or, in nerd speak:
SNES Processor: 3.58 MHz
N64 Processor: 93 MHz
PSX Processor: 33 MHz
DS Processors: One @ 67MHz, One @ 33MHz

Mb = Megabit.

SNES Cart size: 2Mb - 48Mb
N64 Cart size: 32Mb - 512Mb
PSX CD size: <=5000Mb (some games multi-cd)
DS Card size: 32Mb - 2048Mb

SNES Ram: 1Mbit
N64 Ram: 32Mbit
PSX Ram: 16Mbit
DS Ram: 32Mbit

ethelred is right, though, the DS is partially kneecapped in terms of the actual capabilities built in to its GPU... and obviously the DS is lower res than either the PSX or the N64.

OK, I'll concede that I may be exaggerating a bit with my comparison, but to be honest I think you're being silly if you think Nintendo of all companies wil suddenly come around and make a handheld with a lot of technical horsepower.

That's just not Nintendo's bag these days.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Huh?

Yeah that's pretty obviously wrong.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Are you sure about this one ?

 

[wazoo]

OK, I'll concede that I may be exaggerating a bit with my comparison, but to be honest I think you're being silly if you think Nintendo of all companies wil suddenly come around and make a handheld with a lot of technical horsepower.

That's just not Nintendo's bag these days.

Nintendo is all about reusing engines. DS2 should be around PSP level in order to reuse GC/Wii assets, then they will be able to use 2000 3D engine in 2010 and beyond.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Isn't this always going to be true because of the nature of the hardware (Wii vs PS3)?

In purely graphical terms yes, though this is both a good and bad thing. PS3 versions have the advantage of greater graphics as a selling point (versus probably some multiconsole DBZ/Power Pro buyers figuring they can get pretty much the same experience on PS2 without bothering with new control schemes), but also the disadvantage of needing extra sales to recoup the cost of greater graphics.

I'm gonna need a chart for this one. Or at least some numbers that don't require searching.

Famitsu data

DBZBT3, first three weeks
PS2: 162K 53K 26K
Wii: 35K 14K 7K

Power Pro 14, first three weeks
PS2: 148K 53K 25K
Wii: 46K 18K 8K

 

[slaughterking]

OK, I'll concede that I may be exaggerating a bit with my comparison, but to be honest I think you're being silly if you think Nintendo of all companies wil suddenly come around and make a handheld with a lot of technical horsepower.

That's just not Nintendo's bag these days.

What. The PSP is in the same league as the GameCube was. Still noticeable worse, but still in the same generation. A new handheld in, say, 2010 with GCN graphics wouldn't be a huge step up from what we know since 2004.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

What. The PSP is in the same league as the GameCube was. Still noticeable worse, but still in the same generation. A new handheld in, say, 2010 with GCN graphics wouldn't be a huge step up from what we know since 2004.

Yeah, but don't forget that Nintendo now is used to make little if not insignifiant steps for what concern the power of the hardware.

 

[PantherLotus]

Oh good, you guys ARE paying attention!


(fixed)

 

[gregor7777]

What. The PSP is in the same league as the GameCube was. Still noticeable worse, but still in the same generation. A new handheld in, say, 2010 with GCN graphics wouldn't be a huge step up from what we know since 2004.

You are asking too much from Nintendo. If Nintendo's next handheld matches the Gamecube from a technical standpoint I'll let the biggest Nintendo fanboy on these forums design my avatar.

It won't happen.

 

[thestopsign]

If Nintendo steps up to Dreamcast levels, we would be lucky.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Aside from Zelda, I did not buy anything this year everybody do what they want with their money, but 40 games per year on DS ??

I bought my DS September 2005. I have about 75 games right now. So just shy of 40 per year. I'm a total DS nut.

2007 releases that I bought:
Drawn to Life, Pokemon Pearl, Donkey Kong Jungle Climber, Picross DS, Zelda: PH, Diddy Kong Racing DS, Hotel Dusk, Final Fantasy Fables: CT, Custom Robo Arena, PW: ... and Justice for All, QuickSpot, Spectrobes, Theme Park, Lost in Blue 2, Touch the Dead, Etrian Odyssey, Flash Focus, Brain Age 2

2007 releases that I have not yet bought but will before December 31st, 2007:
Chibi-Robo, Contra 4, Cooking Mama 2, Dementium, DQM: Joker, FFXII: RW, Front Mission, Glory Days 2, Kurupoto Cool Cool Stars, Luminous Arc, Planet Puzzle League, Worms Open Warfare 2

Zelda was the last DS title I bought. Switched to buying Wii / PS2 for a month or so to get caught up. I also have a pretty complete DS back catalog, so I figure I've probably bought 10-15 earlier titles this year.

2007 releases that I want to buy but won't get to until 2008:
Heroes of Mana, Honeycomb Beat, Hoshigami Remix, Izuna, Labyrinth, Lunar Knights, Mario Party DS, New York Times Crosswords, PW: Trials and Tribulations, Prism: Light the Way, Puzzla Quest, Sim City DS, Touch Detective 2.5, Wario: Master of Disguise.

Pre-2007 releases still on my to-buy list (I've played about half of these to completion):
Age of Empires, Brain Age, Break 'em All, Clubhouse Games, Contact, Deep Labyrinth, Final Fantasy III, Polarium, SBK: Snowboard Kids, Star Trek: Tactical Assault, Super Monkey Ball: Touch and Roll, Super Princess Peach, Tony Hawk's American Sk8land, Touch Detective, True Swing Golf, Viewtiful Joe, Zoo Keeper.

I also don't have Tingle RPG yet... but I haven't decided if I'm holding out for a desperate hope or if I'm going to import.

 

[slaughterking]

Yeah, but don't forget that Nintendo now is used to make little if not insignifiant steps for what concern the power of the hardware.

Sure, if Nintendo comes up with a new, 'revolutionary' idea like the TS (or the Wiimote for that matter), which will define the whole concept of the new handheld, they probably won't care too much about its graphics capabilities. But even then, I don't see them not matching, what last gen handhels have done five, six or seven years ago.

 

[Parl]

Yeah, but don't forget that Nintendo now is used to make little if not insignifiant steps for what concern the power of the hardware.

I think it's more accurate to say that they now favour cheaper, off the shelf, components.

Going from a designing consoles with new technology (GameCube) to designing consoles with slightly upgraded, 5 year old technology (Wii) meants a minor boost in performance. Going from designing consoles with slightly upgraded, 5 year old technology (Wii) to designing consoles with slightly upgraded, 5 year old technology (Nintendo's next console) means a major boost in performance.

Same applies to DS being old technology. A handheld designed to be released, say, 5 or 6 years after DS was released may have outdated GameCube graphics (at a lower resolution).

 

[ComputerNerd]

The problem with releasing a handheld with graphics like the GameCube, is that the games cost more to make.

That's one of the PSP's conundrums. Nobody wants to buy a $50 game on a handheld. (or however much they cost).

I own a PSP, and all I bought for it was Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories a year ago. The games are just too expensive, and really are console experience, not handheld-centric experiences.

 

[test_account]

Out of curiousity, what was wrong with the previous pie chart?

 

[BishopLamont]

Let's be realistic here guys, DS2 will not launch in 2009 or even 2010, the DS has yet to even receive one price drop and it's selling faster then any other console. Next year will be the year for third party on the DS. Should DS sales slow down significantly, I'm sure Nintendo has the next big non-game to spur sales, heck even Nintendogs 2 or Brain Age 3 will do the trick.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The problem with releasing a handheld with graphics like the GameCube, is that the games cost more to make.

That's one of the PSP's conundrums. Nobody wants to buy a $50 game (or however much they cost).

I own a PSP, and all I bought for it was Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories a year ago. The games are just too expensive, and really are console experience, not handheld-centric experiences.

SILENT HILL ORIGINS
29.99

LEAVE YOUR HOUSE AND GO TO THE STORE

 

[ComputerNerd]

SILENT HILL ORIGINS
29.99

LEAVE YOUR HOUSE AND GO TO THE STORE

That's tempting. Never played a Silent Hill game before.

However, it's still a console-style experience (I'm assuming). Part of my argument before is that the PSP needs more pick up and play games.

 

[PantherLotus]

Out of curiousity, what was wrong with the previous pie chart?

this weeks numbers but last week's %s. (which was very glaring with PS3 @ 58%)

 

[test_account]

this weeks numbers but last week's %s. (which was very glaring with PS3 @ 58%)

Ok, thanks

 

[charlequin]

Realistically Nintendo's next portable should probably be unveiled in late 2008, released in late 2009, with the DS phasing out in 2010 and to some extent in 2011.

What?

The biggest expense in developing any platform is upfront: you spend a ton on R&D, you spend a ton on initial production, and you make the least profit on your system (both from software sales and hardware margins) early on. This is all an investment in the future of your platform: you take all those losses early on so that you can enjoy the profits from cheaply-manufactured hardware and constant software sales down the line.

If you're the market leader, there is no reason whatsoever for you to actually abandon your hardware first. If there's a time period after which consumers get tired of hardware that doesn't have an announced successor yet, it's longer than pretty much any system has actually been alive -- maybe original GB hit it at nine years.

If you're currently losing, it's in your best interest to start the new generation and "reset" things -- get yourself a chance to change your momentum for the better (exactly what Microsoft did quite successfully in the US.) That puts the pressure on the market leader to respond and drives the console cycle. The thing is, I'm not sure Sony actually has much reason to do this right now either -- the PSP has suddenly shot way up from its previous level of success, and is actually probably helping to bankroll the less successful PS3 at the moment. A final R&D push and launch for a PSP followup would be ludicrously expensive -- it's probably in Sony's best interest to push it off a few years as well.

I'm sure Nintendo is developing a followup handheld, because they'll need to have it ready whenever they do decide to release it. But there's no reason whatsoever to actually put it out until Sony has already made the first move -- there's literally no conceivable way that a DS followup could be more successful than the DS, which means the only reason to put it out is to combat a PSP2 that would already be (hypothetically) hurting DS sales. And since Sony probably isn't doing that quite yet, there's no reason for the handheld gen to end yet.

Realistically, yeah... I wouldn't expect it to start until 2010.

 

[schuelma]

One thing to watch for re: PS3. After GT5 Prologue 12/13, PS3 really has little coming until DMC4 at the end of January. while Wii does have a slew of 3rd party titles that should do decently. Will PS3 maintain whatever momentum it gets after 12/13, or will it die down without many releases/

 

[spwolf]

I bought my DS September 2005. I have about 75 games right now. So just shy of 40 per year. I'm a total DS nut.

2007 releases that I bought:
Drawn to Life, Pokemon Pearl, Donkey Kong Jungle Climber, Picross DS, Zelda: PH, Diddy Kong Racing DS, Hotel Dusk, Final Fantasy Fables: CT, Custom Robo Arena, PW: ... and Justice for All, QuickSpot, Spectrobes, Theme Park, Lost in Blue 2, Touch the Dead, Etrian Odyssey, Flash Focus, Brain Age 2

2007 releases that I have not yet bought but will before December 31st, 2007:
Chibi-Robo, Contra 4, Cooking Mama 2, Dementium, DQM: Joker, FFXII: RW, Front Mission, Glory Days 2, Kurupoto Cool Cool Stars, Luminous Arc, Planet Puzzle League, Worms Open Warfare 2

Zelda was the last DS title I bought. Switched to buying Wii / PS2 for a month or so to get caught up. I also have a pretty complete DS back catalog, so I figure I've probably bought 10-15 earlier titles this year.

2007 releases that I want to buy but won't get to until 2008:
Heroes of Mana, Honeycomb Beat, Hoshigami Remix, Izuna, Labyrinth, Lunar Knights, Mario Party DS, New York Times Crosswords, PW: Trials and Tribulations, Prism: Light the Way, Puzzla Quest, Sim City DS, Touch Detective 2.5, Wario: Master of Disguise.

Pre-2007 releases still on my to-buy list (I've played about half of these to completion):
Age of Empires, Brain Age, Break 'em All, Clubhouse Games, Contact, Deep Labyrinth, Final Fantasy III, Polarium, SBK: Snowboard Kids, Star Trek: Tactical Assault, Super Monkey Ball: Touch and Roll, Super Princess Peach, Tony Hawk's American Sk8land, Touch Detective, True Swing Golf, Viewtiful Joe, Zoo Keeper.

I also don't have Tingle RPG yet... but I haven't decided if I'm holding out for a desperate hope or if I'm going to import.

stop it now. just got PSP and am getting DS for xmass.... p.s. are there "platnium"-like releases for DS as well?

 

[mabuza]

One thing to watch for re: PS3. After GT5 Prologue 12/13, PS3 really has little coming until DMC4 at the end of January. while Wii does have a slew of 3rd party titles that should do decently. Will PS3 maintain whatever momentum it gets after 12/13, or will it die down without many releases/

well they have the holidays which automatically increases sales. and wks will be coming in january

 

[wazoo]

stop it now. just got PSP and am getting DS for xmass.... p.s. are there "platnium"-like releases for DS as well?

not really.

 

[Stumpokapow]

stop it now. just got PSP and am getting DS for xmass.... p.s. are there "platnium"-like releases for DS as well?

No, there aren't platinum releases, unfortunately. The only game I can think of that got a re-release was Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow... but the re-release was the same price and well...

 

[schuelma]

well they have the holidays which automatically increases sales. and wks will be coming in january

Yes, I realize sales will go higher because of the holiday's, but I'm wondering how high that bump will be without a steady flow of releases.

 

[Link]

No, there aren't platinum releases, unfortunately. The only game I can think of that got a re-release was Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow... but the re-release was the same price and well...

I can't even imagine who thought that was a good idea for boxart.

 

[ethelred]

Aside from Zelda, I did not buy anything this year everybody do what they want with their money, but 40 games per year on DS ??

Many of the best games in the DS's library were released this year. While I can't fault you for not buying 40 games (as that is pretty extreme), it's also outright odd to imply that Zelda's been the only thing worth buying.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

im surprised you guys have time to post so much, shouldnt you be playing super mario galaxy?

Much as I hate to admit it, he has got a point with this one. No way I'd have done so much game sales database stuff this month if I had SMG, but I don't. That accepted, programming and data wrangling is its own sort of fun, and useful long term. Sooooo here's something else.

I've just put up the data from Famitsu's weekly software pies. I've been keeping track of this (as I know a few others have) for a while offline, but never put it online. However, since I put up the SQL Direct page, I feel more free to put up information to be accessed, even if I haven't made tools specifically for that data. The table is FamitsuSoftwarePie, with fields Week, System, and Percent. If a number was for a two week span I put it in for both weeks. There are gap periods without data, but mostly in 2003 and 2004.


The values from the week of November 5.
A list of weeks where DS accounted for over half of software sales.
A list of weeks where X360 accounted for more than 5% of software sales. All within the last half year, as it turns out.
Software share out of 100 between just DS and PSP. This is a fun one, and with a minor bit of tweaking could be made to compare any two systems. If I do make Famitsu Software Pie-specific tools, this is the sort of thing that will definitely be needed.

 

[PantherLotus]

I can't even imagine who thought that was a good idea for boxart.

It went on sale here in the states for $10 bucks, and with a $5 coupon, I got my 2nd favorite game on the DS (after DQH:RS) for a measley 5 bucks. Such a good deal, in fact, I'm willing to overpay for the sequel(s?).

I can overlook the cover art of a box for that price.

 

[AdmiralViscen]

Let's be realistic here guys, DS2 will not launch in 2009 or even 2010, the DS has yet to even receive one price drop and it's selling faster then any other console. Next year will be the year for third party on the DS. Should DS sales slow down significantly, I'm sure Nintendo has the next big non-game to spur sales, heck even Nintendogs 2 or Brain Age 3 will do the trick.

$150->$130

As for the rest, the next DS or PSP won't be shown before 2009, and I don't see why the next Nintendo handheld wouldn't want to cost save by using GCN shit in it.

What?

The biggest expense in developing any platform is upfront: you spend a ton on R&D, you spend a ton on initial production, and you make the least profit on your system (both from software sales and hardware margins) early on. This is all an investment in the future of your platform: you take all those losses early on so that you can enjoy the profits from cheaply-manufactured hardware and constant software sales down the line.

If you're the market leader, there is no reason whatsoever for you to actually abandon your hardware first. If there's a time period after which consumers get tired of hardware that doesn't have an announced successor yet, it's longer than pretty much any system has actually been alive -- maybe original GB hit it at nine years.

If you're currently losing, it's in your best interest to start the new generation and "reset" things -- get yourself a chance to change your momentum for the better (exactly what Microsoft did quite successfully in the US.) That puts the pressure on the market leader to respond and drives the console cycle. The thing is, I'm not sure Sony actually has much reason to do this right now either -- the PSP has suddenly shot way up from its previous level of success, and is actually probably helping to bankroll the less successful PS3 at the moment. A final R&D push and launch for a PSP followup would be ludicrously expensive -- it's probably in Sony's best interest to push it off a few years as well.

I'm sure Nintendo is developing a followup handheld, because they'll need to have it ready whenever they do decide to release it. But there's no reason whatsoever to actually put it out until Sony has already made the first move -- there's literally no conceivable way that a DS followup could be more successful than the DS, which means the only reason to put it out is to combat a PSP2 that would already be (hypothetically) hurting DS sales. And since Sony probably isn't doing that quite yet, there's no reason for the handheld gen to end yet.

Realistically, yeah... I wouldn't expect it to start until 2010.

This should be required reading for everyone on this site.

 

[Stumpokapow]

What? ... Realistically, yeah... I wouldn't expect it to start until 2010.

Nothing out of what you're saying is wrong in the traditional video game console and handheld model. I totally agree with you these. My thoughts are that Nintendo's best bet is to start thinking of things from a different business model.

Look at Apple's products. Since the Apple renaissance, Apple has done their best to go on a "blue ocean" strategy like Nintendo. The difference is, unlike Nintendo, Apple goes the whole nine yards. Their release schedule is not whatsoever calibrated to any of their competition. They did not upgrade the iPod in response to the Zune or anything else. They upgraded the iPod in response to the iPod.

Sometimes, when you're on top, the best way to go forward is not to fend off your competitors, but to improve on yourself. The fundamental idea in the blue ocean strategy is not to give the consumer what they want, but to convince the consumer that they need a product that they had never considered before. Before the iPhone, a lot of people said "How can Apple improve on the iPod? Why would I upgrade?", and then multi-touch, a rotateable screen, and on-the-fly switching from Wi-Fi to cell networks popped up. If you can't see the inspiration Nintendo has been taking from Apple, you're nuts.

No, the Nintendo DS is not at saturation in Japan; but it's obviously getting close. New colours and new minor models like the DS Lite have been very successful at getting people to double-dip... but the best way to get people to double dip is to actually present a new product.

Furthermore, like I said before, the same sort of saturation is to some extent happening with IP. As of next Spring, there will be 3 Kirby titles. Can they do another one? Can they really do another WarioWare without a peripheral? Can they do another Animal Crossing? All of these are guaranteed sellers that are to some extent being held back by the fact that the platform.

Also, it's just plain false to present the PSP as the primary competition to the DS. The primary competition to both the DS and the PSP is not each other, it's mobile phones. How can Nintendo and Sony look attractive to consumers and developers in the era of mobile phones? Well, digital distribution and greater pricing flexibility is obviously a big thing. The PSP has a platform to launch DD, even if they've been slow getting started. The DS does not.

I'm not saying that Nintendo WILL launch in late 2009; I'm saying that there are definite benefits to launching in late 2009 that might not be inherently obvious in the traditional console/handheld paradigm.

 

[sphinx]

If Nintendo steps up to Dreamcast levels, we would be lucky.

I dare say that in regads to graphics, The DS is already able.

If a DS card could hold all the ammount of data of skies of arcadia, I think the DS would be able to handle most of the visual stuff included in the game.

Spoiler

don't quote me on that, just an impression...

 

[PantherLotus]

Blue Ocean, AGAIN? C'mon guys.

 

[ksamedi]

Nothing out of what you're saying is wrong in the traditional video game console and handheld model. I totally agree with you these. My thoughts are that Nintendo's best bet is to start thinking of things from a different business model.

Look at Apple's products. Since the Apple renaissance, Apple has done their best to go on a "blue ocean" strategy like Nintendo. The difference is, unlike Nintendo, Apple goes the whole nine yards. Their release schedule is not whatsoever calibrated to any of their competition. They did not upgrade the iPod in response to the Zune or anything else. They upgraded the iPod in response to the iPod.

Sometimes, when you're on top, the best way to go forward is not to fend off your competitors, but to improve on yourself. The fundamental idea in the blue ocean strategy is not to give the consumer what they want, but to convince the consumer that they need a product that they had never considered before. Before the iPhone, a lot of people said "How can Apple improve on the iPod? Why would I upgrade?", and then multi-touch, a rotateable screen, and on-the-fly switching from Wi-Fi to cell networks popped up. If you can't see the inspiration Nintendo has been taking from Apple, you're nuts.

No, the Nintendo DS is not at saturation in Japan; but it's obviously getting close. New colours and new minor models like the DS Lite have been very successful at getting people to double-dip... but the best way to get people to double dip is to actually present a new product.

Furthermore, like I said before, the same sort of saturation is to some extent happening with IP. As of next Spring, there will be 3 Kirby titles. Can they do another one? Can they really do another WarioWare without a peripheral? Can they do another Animal Crossing? All of these are guaranteed sellers that are to some extent being held back by the fact that the platform.

Also, it's just plain false to present the PSP as the primary competition to the DS. The primary competition to both the DS and the PSP is not each other, it's mobile phones. How can Nintendo and Sony look attractive to consumers and developers in the era of mobile phones? Well, digital distribution and greater pricing flexibility is obviously a big thing. The PSP has a platform to launch DD, even if they've been slow getting started. The DS does not.

I'm not saying that Nintendo WILL launch in late 2009; I'm saying that there are definite benefits to launching in late 2009 that might not be inherently obvious in the traditional console/handheld paradigm.

The Ipod is a piece of hardware, they make money of the hardware so they have to innovate to keep selling this stuff. The DS is just a vechile for software, the DS is far from finished in the software front, there are tons of ideas left to explore. What is also a factor is the huge userbase of the DS and like Iwata have said countless times, Nintendo can take advantage of this huge userbase by introducing other functionality for the DS. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up with telephony capabilities, or something that could be used on trainstations to see the schedule. The DS is far from a finished project, infact its just starting.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Blue Ocean, AGAIN? C'mon guys.

I do mean to differentiate generic "blue ocean" meaning any product differentiation strategy from specific "Blue Ocean" meaning the specific book and its methodologies. You could read my post without "blue ocean" and just assume I mean Apple/Nintendo's current business strategy.

 

[PantherLotus]

I do mean to differentiate generic "blue ocean" meaning any product differentiation strategy from specific "Blue Ocean" meaning the specific book and its methodologies. You could read my post without "blue ocean" and just assume I mean Apple/Nintendo's current business strategy.

Still, I like your ideas, but I think they're flawed. They are two very different products succeeding for two very different reasons. If by strategy, you mean "dominate the market," then yes. If you go any further though, you'd have a much harder time making your case.

It takes more than white plastic to make the products similar.

 

[Xeke]

People are talking about a new DS when the price hasn't dropped at all in Japan? What?

DS at $99 will explode.

 

[sphinx]

The Ipod is a piece of hardware, they make money of the hardware so they have to innovate to keep selling this stuff. The DS is just a vechile for software, the DS is far from finished in the software front, there are tons of ideas left to explore. What is also a factor is the huge userbase of the DS and like Iwata have said countless times, Nintendo can take advantage of this huge userbase by introducing other functionality for the DS. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up with telephony capabilities, or something that could be used on trainstations to see the schedule. The DS is far from a finished project, infact its just starting.

I agree with ksamedi.

I think DS possibilities have been untapped to a 40% or 50%. There is still a lot of room to make DS software that is amazingly innovative and fun. Until the big companies' first-class development teams decide to dig the DS (which they clearly haven't) I don't think thre is a reason to bring the next nintendo handheld, from a technical point of view.

If you're the market leader, there is no reason whatsoever for you to actually abandon your hardware first. If there's a time period after which consumers get tired of hardware that doesn't have an announced successor yet, it's longer than pretty much any system has actually been alive -- maybe original GB hit it at nine years.

Agreed, but you can't let yourself get caught unaware. Sony made that very mistake with the PS3. They were clearly not prepared to launch the worthy successor of the PS2 and the only reason they launched a PS3 was because thy could not allow MS to have a next-gen console for more than a year on the market. the PS2, on the other hand, launched even when the competition was dead ( N64 and saturn ) and it proved to be a very wise decision. So much, that the competition was dead on arrival ( GC and XBX ).

 

[donny2112]

$150->$130

That's the U.S. The price has only changed once in Japan, and that was an increase (DS -> DSL).

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

People are talking about a new DS when the price hasn't dropped at all in Japan? What?

DS at $99 will explode.

Good observation.

 

[manueldelalas]

Agreed, but you can't let yourself get caught unaware. Sony made that very mistake with the PS3. They were clearly not prepared to launch the worthy successor of the PS2 and the only reason they launched a PS3 was because thy could not allow MS to have a next-gen console for more than a year on the market. the PS2, on the other hand, launched even when the competition was dead ( N64 and saturn ) and it proved to be a very wise decision. So much, that the competition was dead on arrival ( GC and XBX ).

Before the PS2 there was the Dreamcast...

 

[Stumpokapow]

Still, I like your ideas, but I think they're flawed. They are two very different products succeeding for two very different reasons. If by strategy, you mean "dominate the market," then yes. If you go any further though, you'd have a much harder time making your case.

It takes more than white plastic to make the products similar.

The Mac's operating philosophy as of OS10.2 or so was
1) We can make using a computer easier (interface)
2) There's a new way to conceive of a computer (bundled unified software library)
3) We'll put it all in several different but equally small, sleek, and minimal aesthetics.

The iPod's operating philosophy was
1) We can make listening to music easier (interface)
2) There's a new way to get music (iTunes)
3) We'll put it all in a small, sleek, minimal aesthetic

The DS's operating philosophy was
1) We can make playing games easier (interface)
2) There's a new way to conceive of games (non-games, extended software library)
3) We'll put it all in a small, sleek, minimal aesthetic *Only with DS Lite

The Wii's operating philosophy was:
1) We can make playing games easier (interface)
2) There's a new way to conceive of games (non-games, extended software library)
3) We'll put it all in a small, sleek, minimal aesthetic

Admittedly Nintendo has differentiated themselves from Apple by also going for the "low cost" point, whereas Apple really hasn't gone for the bargain basement.

Whether you think that the DS successor will be 2009 or 2010 or 2011 (... pretty much no one would think it's coming any later than 2011), I can guarantee you that it will be in keeping with the Apple / Nintendo current style of doing things.

Convince the consumer that they are not looking at gaming as holistically as they can, and promote a "new gaming" in a small, sleek, minimal, and easy to use package while simultaneously convincing existing fans that they NEED to upgrade.

I reject the idea that the iPod is somehow not a vehicle for software. It is a vehicle for software. It's a vehicle for iTunes as a download service and as a music player, which is in turn a vehicle for the overall Mac lineup. Apple uses the iPod as an (admittedly very profitable) way to drive further Apple sales by encouraging customers to dip their toes into the Apple brand. Personally, I went in reverse; bought my first Mac long before my first iPod, but I'm also not part of the "extended audience".

Nintendo uses hardware to drive software. Apple uses hardware to drive software, services, and more hardware. I have no doubt that Nintendo will over the next few years shift to integrating their brands a little bit better and cross-promoting. We're already seeing the signs now.

I know the DS is not "finishing up". I'm not sure why people assume that me thinking that a new product will debut in 2 years and the current product will phase out in 3.5 means I think it's finishing up. It's not. I honestly can't believe that people think there's so much difference between late 2009 and late 2010 that one is complete impossible and the other is a virtual lock. I do however believe that the DS is honestly hitting its technical peak around now; certain limitations including texture memory and screen resolution are essentially hard limits that can't be overcome. Same with no onboard storage. There are still ways in which things can be improved, but I think the DS is now where the PSX was with FF8; we'll still see FF9 and Chrono Cross equivalents technically, but we won't see any massive leaps from now on.

 

[Saitou]

You are asking too much from Nintendo. If Nintendo's next handheld matches the Gamecube from a technical standpoint I'll let the biggest Nintendo fanboy on these forums design my avatar.

It won't happen.

This seems to have gone unnoticed.

I must not let it die.