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[Galactic Fork]

Enough beating around the bush, here's what I'm getting at. The underlying concept being my 300k benchmark and the refutation you guys have provided for so long.

If you guys have been saying for the past year or so that titles can sell significantly less than 300k and still be considered a success in your eyes, the publishers eyes, the developers eyes, GAFFers eyes, and Nintendo's eyes, and you had no problem with it, why are you complaining abuot restock issues?

Most of the titles that have a shortage are titles that have already sold near 1 million copies already, shouldn't you and everyone else be happy with it by now, and then even more happy when they can etch out a couple more (two digit thousand) cartridges?

And for companies that are getting shortages and only selling around 70k or so. Not only do I ask "Shouldn't you still be happy with it and call it a success?" but also, "Aren't these the same companies that have a FREAKING HISTORY OF UNDERSHIPPING IN THE FIRST PLACE?" The answer, in relation to Atlus most definitely, is yes; I dont' need your sarcastic runaround answers.

Double standards folks.

Wow! You just don't get it at all do you? Ok! Explaining.

companies want every sale they can get.

If a low budget niche game sells 200k in its lifetime, that's great! It sold every copy it could, which turned out to be a lot!

If same game finally sold 200k after selling out a lot and long delays of restocks, then you have to wonder what it COULD have sold. The games aren't meeting their potential sells within the market. The companies could be making more money in the market, but aren't because the carts aren't being supplied. It makes no difference if the sales are 100k or 1 million. Potential is being lost!

 

[cvxfreak]

Could be that some of these titles are just undertracked by MC (like the week people said Wii had sold out of its shipment when reality there were about 30,000 somewhere out there, either undertracked or didn't sell) or really just aren't selling for one week.

I prefer the former, it's more logical

I saw them for myself, bins of brand new copies of Tempest at 1480 Yen or so, in almost every shop I went to in Osaka and Tokyo. So no.

 

[Parl]

MC threads...

 

[LanceStern]

Regardless of how profitable a venture turned out, no one is satisfied if they didn't sell over 300,000 units.

Am I allowed to say, "Fixed", Dracona?

 

[kizmah]

Anybody can answer this?

How much has the first MHP sold so far?

 

[cvxfreak]

Anybody can answer this?

How much has the first MHP sold so far?

About 930K.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Anybody can answer this?

How much has the first MHP sold so far?

Last I heard its original sales and 'best' sales total around 930k.

 

[kizmah]

About 930K.

Thanks!

 

[LanceStern]

If same game finally sold 200k after selling out a lot and long delays of restocks, then you have to wonder what it COULD have sold. The games aren't meeting their potential sells within the market. The companies could be making more money in the market, but aren't because the carts aren't being supplied. It makes no difference if the sales are 100k or 1 million. Potential is being lost!

They made their profit, they were successful, whatcha gonna do?

I could say a lot of these titles have the POTENTIAL to sell 300k units, and a lot did, but were cut off at the knee by "non-traditional" games taking the spotlight, a la Wii Sports/Play and training games.

This is going to turn out to be a nasty topic I can tell. Fortunately I have a Calculus exam in 15 minutes, which lessens my chance of a banning >_>

 

[LanceStern]

I saw them for myself, bins of brand new copies of Tempest at 1480 Yen or so, in almost every shop I went to in Osaka and Tokyo. So no.

Oh correction, I meant I prefer the former for titles that sell consistently. For the titles that sell big, drop off, sell big, drop off, repeat... then MC can't possibly be undertrackign and it has to be the latter (undershipments/shortages)

Sorry about the mixup

 

[Galactic Fork]

They made their profit, they were successful, whatcha gonna do?

I could say a lot of these titles have the POTENTIAL to sell 300k units, and a lot did, but were cut off at the knee by "non-traditional" games taking the spotlight, a la Wii Sports/Play and training games.

This is going to turn out to be a nasty topic I can tell. Fortunately I have a Calculus exam in 15 minutes, which lessens my chance of a banning >_>

*shrug* that's why I said in my post "In the current market." Those games you are thinking of don't have the potential in the current market.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I could say a lot of these titles have the POTENTIAL to sell 300k units, and a lot did, but were cut off at the knee by "non-traditional" games taking the spotlight, a la Wii Sports/Play and training games.

Come on, Lance. You must be joking to consider "Supply issues" and "Competition" as the same thing.

 

[ylvis_]

I disagree that people will find alternatives. If that were the case, everyone would be buying PS3s right now because they can't find a Wii, or a PS2 or whatever else you want to use as an example. People buy software and hardware because it's what they want to play with. If they can't get it one week, they'll look for it the next. Sure, a few will decide to buy something else, but then they might also come back and buy that game they were originally looking for when it's in-stock again. Purchasing patterns aren't driven by DAY ONE like you think they are.

It's different when it comes to consoles.

Anyway, I really think it's a huge mistake if S-E is only shipping 500k of Revenant Wings. Didn't they learn at all from FFIII and Joker? FFIII is now over 1 mill and if you consider that Revenant Wings is bigger than FFIII, where's the logic behind the shipment numbers?

Edit:
Happy now?

Sorry, English isn't my first language, but I'm pretty sure you can if you want, include the "do" in there anyway.

 

[Galactic Fork]

It's different when it comes to consoles.

Anyway, I really do think it's a huge mistake if S-E is only shipping 500k of Revenant Wings. Didn't they learn at all from FFIII and Joker? FFIII is now over 1 mill and if you consider that Revenant Wings is bigger than FFIII, where's the logic behind the shipment numbers?

Edit: Nevermind! Reading comprehension is not strong in me. So uhh... carry on! Good post!

 

[Yamauchi]

Let's see if the PS3 can finally outsell the Wii next week.

 

[Parl]

Come on, Lance. You must be drunk to consider "Supply issues" and "Competition" as the same thing.

Edit: Stealth edit ftl

Spoiler

j/k

 

[Parl]

Let's see if the PS3 can finally outsell the Wii next week.

Huh?

 

[ylvis_]

Wait what? I think your post made negative sense.

How?

FFIII was a remake. Japanese people usually don't like remakes that much, but FFIII sold out nonethless. Its shipment was around 500k wasn't it? The same as Revenant Wings is going to have. But consider that a lot of people (including Famitsu) think RW will be a much more popular game, and will sell more, it's crazy that they will only ship 500k. They should atleast ship over 800k in my opinion, to meet demand to some degree.

 

[Galactic Fork]

How?

FFIII was a remake. Japanese people usually don't like remakes that much, but FFIII sold out nonethless. Its shipment was around 500k wasn't it? The same as Revenant Wings is going to have. But consider that a lot of people (including Famitsu) think RW will be a much more popular game, and will sell more, it's crazy that they will only ship 500k. They should atleast ship over 800k in my opinion, to meet demand to some degree.

Yeah I know. I edited mine. I am dumb! In your post you said "I really do think" and I read it as "I really don't think" because well, you don't need anything between really and think! It should have been "really think." So umm I've decided to blame you anyway. Yes. It's all your fault. I am not stupid at all.

 

[Error]

(neutral) LanceStern
Banned
(Today, 02:47 PM)
Reply | Quote

<Error^BoF5> I cant believe lancestern has survived
<duckroll> PSP >>>> DS
<duckroll> error: will he survive TODAY
<Error^BoF5> I thought he was going to get banned quickly
<duckroll> in fact
<duckroll> will ANYONE survive today?!
<duckroll> solution: DO NOT POST
<rk> Episode 17
<Error^BoF5> I bet 5 bucks lancestern gets banned tonight

damn! close. I still knew he wasnt going to survive this media create thread.

 

[justchris]

Two entirely separate points.

The first is, Nintendo probably is working on opening new fabrication plants for DS carts as well as DSL HW. Chances are they aren't going to have them online until sometime in April though. That way the expenditure goes into the 2007 fiscal year, not the 2006 fiscal year, which just makes their stock look more attractive. And it's always been a Nintendo thing to err on the side of caution.

Considering that Nintendo has already announced Wii Production will increase in April, I'd expect they have similar plans for DS. The fact that they haven't announced it yet doesn't necessarily mean anything. Nintendo will only announce something if they feel they need to to protect their image. Right now the public seems to be taking the DS shortages (HW & SW) in stride, so Nintendo doesn't feel pressured to tip their hand (and you know they're not ever going to reveal one iota of information they don't feel they have to). And hey, as long as 3rd parties aren't complaining, Nintendo isn't going to rush their time table.

Second point, for those in the midst of the argument, the Japanese market is significantly different from the American market. Sales are a lot more front loaded in the Japanese market, so lowered shipments will probably have a bigger affect in Japan than they would in North America.

On the other hand, looking at the sales charts, games like DQM:J, BT, NSMB and the like, are selling out even the reshipments. People are buying these games, and not selling them back, so the used games aren't there to be bought. This seems obvious from the way games will drop out of the top 10, only to be back in a week or two when a new shipment hits.

I'm not saying that it's not a problem. Nintendo should be able to replenish a shipment the following week, even if the initial shipment is lower than what we think it should be, that's left up to the publisher and Nintendo to decide, but to not be able to replenish a shipment for 2 weeks or more, that's bordering on being a bad business decision.

Still, it does look like the more popular the game is, the higher reshipments are prioritized. As someone mentioned before, DQM:J got it's first reshipment almost 2 weeks before it was originally reported it would. I'm guessing Nintendo/Square-Enix saw how well it sold, and reprioritized shipments for the following weeks.

 

[Kafel]

Huh?

Yamauchi

 

[cvxfreak]

Oh snap @ Lance

 

[ylvis_]

A little off topic here; Has Nintendo said anything about why they didn't ship out more DS's in January in NA? It sold around 250-260k in NA and was completely sold out, right? That's kinda crazy if they only shipped around 250k DS's, when we know Nintendo produce 2.5 mill DS's monthly. There's no way NA is only getting 10% of the shipment, so what was the reason?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Let's see if the PS3 can finally outsell the Wii next week.

Did this week Wii ship sink in the ocean or something?

 

[cvxfreak]

Did this week Wii ship sink in the ocean or something?

Chinese New Year delay. Or something.

 

[Ikael]

As much as I like Nintendo, it is obvious that their cart shipments are a cluste*ck of epic proportions. It puzzles me how much they are willing to take risks with the hardware yet how conservative they act on this thing. Stop being shit scared of excess of offer, things like this keeps the third parties away from your systems.

 

[besada]

360 is in the top thirty, but the PS3 isn't
Just goes to show that stamping Lupin on the front cover of anything nets you serious sales in Japan. I predict a re-release of Gears, using a photoshopped Lupin head instead of Dom.

 

[Brak]

As much as I like Nintendo, it is obvious that their cart shipments are a cluste*ck of epic proportions. It puzzles me how much they are willing to take risks with the hardware yet how conservative they act on this thing. Stop being shit scared of excess of offer, things like this keeps the third parties away from your systems.

OK, everyone's talking about how Nintendo is being a total shithead and what not, but I don't think that the actual numbers back that up. Sure Nintendo could be doing better, but this is not some collosal failure like everyone is claiming.

(I tried searching for the past half hour or so but I couldn't find the thread, so hopefully someone can help me out.) We recently got the numbers for the 2006 year and Software sales were up 20 MILLION over the previous year to something like 75 MILLION total. The DS represented somewhere between 65-70% of those sales, meaning approx. 50 MILLION DS carts manufactured and sold. That's almost the total of games that were sold the year prior.

Are 3rd party games getting the shaft moreso than Nintendo's own games, probably. But I don't know how you can say that they aren't even trying, or that they could somehow have been prepared for that kind of demand. And I certainly disagree with Ethelred's "return to NES-era Nintendo comment".

Since demand is increasing drastically in Europe and NA, we aren't going to see this problem go away, EVEN IF they have made more factories or increased production through some other method. Third parties are just going to need to be smarter and work more closely with Nintendo, because there is no other short term solution.

 

[Evlar]

A little off topic here; Has Nintendo said anything about why they didn't ship out more DS's in January in NA? It sold around 250-260k in NA and was completely sold out, right? That's kinda crazy if they only shipped around 250k DS's, when we know Nintendo produce 2.5 mill DS's monthly. There's no way NA is only getting 10% of the shipment, so what was the reason?

The supply issue hasn't improved- not around here anyway. I'm guessing they are stockpiling DS Lites in preparation for Pokemon Diamond/Pearl.

 

[Haunted]

Oh well, the ps3 had a good run

Spoiler

well actually it didn't but what can I say.

I dunno, but that pic and that quote, posted at that moment - brilliant comedic timing. :lol :lol


Nintendo is clearly at fault with the restock problems. They could and should really work on improving their production and distribution networks. No excuses.

 

[NintendosBooger]

Unfortunately, the NES era is back, and the NES-era Nintendo is back with it, and they're in full-on "Screw all third parties" mode. :/

Quit the melodramatic BS.

Nintendo should look after Nintendo first, especially after the lack of strong support provided by various third-parties the past few generations that helped to relegate Nintendo to a media laughing stock. Second, Nintendo, regardless of the Wii and DS's success, is in no position to be playing bully, considering there are equally strong and determined competitors in the mix. Nintendo's recent success is just a few years removed from one their more financially embarrassing generations to date.

 

[KINGMOKU]

I just thought of something. Does everyone realize that people are arguing over Nintendo bieng able to produce enough of ANYTHING? Two years ago, this whole conversation would have been laughable.


Good god have times changed.

 

[ylvis_]

And btw, the DS has four titles that have sold over four million in Japan now.

Animal Crosing
Brain Training 2
Pokemon D/P
NSMB

 

[Parl]

I just thought of something. Does everyone realize that people are arguing over Nintendo bieng able to produce enough of ANYTHING? Two years ago, this whole conversation would have been laughable.


Good god have times changed.

They can't make enough hardware and software. It's nothing to do with Christmas rush, it's nothing to do with new game releases, and it's everything to do with the fact that DS's pace proves it is easily the most popular videogame game system ever to grace Earth.

And now their home console system is easily outpacing it. (Although I don't expect Wii to have close to the exponential growth DS has enjoyed, mainly because of DS's modest first half a year in Japan)

Two years ago, this kinda stuff would've been April fool's jokes. If anybody decided to make such jokes anytime within the last year or so, the joke is on them.

 

[CorwinB]

OK, everyone's talking about how Nintendo is being a total shithead and what not, but I don't think that the actual numbers back that up. Sure Nintendo could be doing better, but this is not some collosal failure like everyone is claiming.

(I tried searching for the past half hour or so but I couldn't find the thread, so hopefully someone can help me out.) We recently got the numbers for the 2006 year and Software sales were up 20 MILLION over the previous year to something like 75 MILLION total. The DS represented somewhere between 65-70% of those sales, meaning approx. 50 MILLION DS carts manufactured and sold. That's almost the total of games that were sold the year prior.

Are 3rd party games getting the shaft moreso than Nintendo's own games, probably. But I don't know how you can say that they aren't even trying, or that they could somehow have been prepared for that kind of demand. And I certainly disagree with Ethelred's "return to NES-era Nintendo comment".

Since demand is increasing drastically in Europe and NA, we aren't going to see this problem go away, EVEN IF they have made more factories or increased production through some other method. Third parties are just going to need to be smarter and work more closely with Nintendo, because there is no other short term solution.

Thanks for bringing things into perspective, showing the already insane number of carts being manufactured. To sum it up :
1) the DS enjoys an unprecedented success for a handheld, especially in Japan
2) the DS has absolutely insane tie ratios for a handheld (also mostly in Japan)

As such, the demand for cards increases exponentially. I really hope they are building more factories, because 2007 is going to be another monster year for the DS.

I think that by now, they already now what kind of medium their next handheld will use (be it GameBoy "Next" or DS2). My guess is that they will stick with static medium for another round (and have backward compatibility), and if it's the case new factories won't be wasted anyway.

 

[JJConrad]

We all know that cartidges take longer to produce than disc. If the software shortages is only caused by Nintendo's slow production then why do some games get restocked in less than 2 weeks while others take more than a month? And it always seems to be the first restock that takes the longest to arrive.

 

[Xeke]

...So why isn't it possible that they are producing as fast as they can and are investing in new factories. I still think that lots of you are over simplifying the situation and this "Nintendo wants to screw the 3rd parties!" talk is just ridiculous.

Supply < Demand

A year ago I don't think they anticipated these kinds of sales from both the DS and Wii and it's not like you can get a factory up THAT quickly.

But I do agree that something needs to be done.

 

[Barf_the_Mog]

So, has Super Mario 64 DS passed the one million mark yet? Seems like we've been waiting for that to happen for....what, over a year now.

 

[splattergnome]

We all know that cartidges take longer to produce than disc. If the software shortages is only caused by Nintendo's slow production then why do some games get restocked in less than 2 weeks while others take more than a month? And it always seems to be the first restock that takes the longest to arrive.

It probably also depends on factors such as the actual size of the cartridge, the manual size, and the print run size. Games like Layton and Sim City won't have large print runs and can be produced quicker.

By the way - does anybody know the size of Sim City and Layton?

 

[cvxfreak]

I just thought of something. Does everyone realize that people are arguing over Nintendo bieng able to produce enough of ANYTHING? Two years ago, this whole conversation would have been laughable.


Good god have times changed.

"AWW HELL YEAHHHH"

So, has Super Mario 64 DS passed the one million mark yet? Seems like we've been waiting for that to happen for....what, over a year now.

Yeah, it did a few months back.

 

[ant1532]

What the hell...

So I just played a bit of the first Monster Hunter on PSP and it seems like something the Japanese would never touch... It's so western looking. Everything about it almost. Maybe they just like all the customization and the multiplay...

 

[ylvis_]

Yeah, it did a few months back.

But was that according to Famitsu or m-create? Can't remember m-create announcing SM64 at over 1 mill, but I'm probably wrong

 

[seattle6418]

Chinese New Year delay. Or something.

gundam musou. highly expected ps3 title. is this doesn´t help, then i don´t know what they have to do besides lowering the price...

selling at 20-22 per week, they are on pace for 1 million units a year. this is just not right. something has to change. and fast

 

[schuelma]

gundam musou. highly expected ps3 title. is this doesn´t help, then i don´t know what they have to do besides lowering the price...

selling at 20-22 per week, they are on pace for 1 million units a year. this is just not right. something has to change. and fast

I think its pretty simple..they have to lower the price. They might get a bit of a bump, but enough to start consistently competing with Wii?

 

[PantherLotus]

hw in 3 hours!!

here goes the "so easy and predictable post-famitsu prediction" post.

Wii - 83k
PS3 - 20k
360 - 4k

 

[squatingyeti]

gundam musou. highly expected ps3 title. is this doesn´t help, then i don´t know what they have to do besides lowering the price...

selling at 20-22 per week, they are on pace for 1 million units a year. this is just not right. something has to change. and fast

They may never catch Nintendo in Japan, but taken as a whole, the PS3 could shine again. If they get strong support in Europe and sales pick up in NA, they could really turn things around. If people believe 360 can turn out on top with atrocious sales in Japan, then PS3 must be able to do the same thing.

I still feel the price is very intimidating and unless they are able to rapidly control it, they could get too far behind either N or MS to catch up.

 

[TopDreg]

People are expecting way too much out of Gundam Musou. It's not going to drive a huge spike in PS3 sales. True, Gundam games are popular in Japan, but for the most part, they're merely mediocre games. And, from the looks of it, Japan's been able to fairly well recognize was good and what's bad. A mediocre Gundam game is not going to drive the most expensive console on the market off shelves in flying numbers. It'll probably boost PS3 sales about 20,000 more for a week or two, but that's about it.

If VF5 couldn't spike PS3 sales, Gundam won't do that much better.

 

[WrathOfOtaibah]

PS3 has the opportunity to do better if and only if Sony creates a new strategy and Wii's novelty factor drops considerably.

The Wii is top dog for consoles in Japan now. Gundam Musou might get the wheels turning again for PS3 but its going up against the popular duo of Wii Sports and Wii Play. I don't think it will be enough to turn things around right away but the only direction Sony can go anymore is up. 18-25k is rather distressing for a new console besides 360, which we knew wasn't going to put up much in the first place.

It behooves Sony to get their shit together. Their "premium" angle is flopping.

Nintendo DS has shortages because of its freakishly large demand. Unprecedented, that is for sure. Same goes for software.

 

[TheGreatDave]

PS3 has the opportunity to do better if and only if Sony creates a new strategy and Wii's novelty factor drops considerably.

The Wii is top dog for consoles in Japan now. Gundam Musou might get the wheels turning again for PS3 but its going up against the popular duo of Wii Sports and Wii Play. I don't think it will be enough to turn things around right away but the only direction Sony can go anymore is up. 18-25k is rather distressing for a new console besides 360, which we knew wasn't going to put up much in the first place.

It behooves Sony to get their shit together. Their "premium" angle is flopping.

Nintendo DS has shortages because of its freakishly large demand. Unprecedented, that is for sure. Same goes for software.

Sony needs to create a stratagy that doesn't involve building a console that can't be sold at a competative price, having an over reliance on third party software to shit units and failing to really improve upon the competition in a way that the average Joe can go in to a shop and instantly see.