Segata Sanshiro said:
Well, I think it's way too early to tell. We have to see what kind of system the PS3 is going to become. That and we haven't really seen how Sony would do this sort of thing before. The PSP is hanging on, but it's a #2 and the hardware isn't sold at a loss.
My guess is that they'd do this more the way Nintendo has than the way MS/Sega did. So they'll probably let MS launch first again, then go the next year.
If they let MS go first, but don't change anything else other than the system specs, it'll just be the same thing over again. It has to be something new. I'm going to make an assertion here, in the same vein as the "3rd console curse," but more concrete. I call it the "every other gen theory."
New Gen Wins, Next Gen Solidifies, Next Next Gen Loses.
NES - NEW GEN (innovation) - Controls.
SNES - (next gen) - Graphics.
------->N64 (next gen again) - Fall from grace.
PS1 - NEW GEN (innovation) - Disk based.
PS2 - (next gen) - Graphics.
------->PS3 (next gen again) - Fall from grace.
Wii - NEW GEN (innovation) - Controls.
WiiHD - (next gen) - Graphics.
------->Wii3 (next gen again) - Fall from grace.