Segata Sanshiro
Member
****ING SNEEZE ALREADY
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Media Create Sales 4/16 - 4/22
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
****ING SNEEZE ALREADY
Hcoregamer00
The 'H' stands for hentai.
Segata Sanshiro said:
****ING SNEEZE ALREADY
She wont sneeze until the PS3 outsells the PSP weekly :lol
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Segata Sanshiro said:
****ING SNEEZE ALREADY
That's supposed to be pre-sneeze? I thought she was a Sony shareholder looking at recent MC numbers.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Dragona Akehi said:
:lol
Tyrannical
Banned
11,000 PS3's is a nice round number. Are these estimates?
Mariah Carey
Member
It sold precisely 11,000 units?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
This Week Sales:
Since 11/27/07:
21 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
15 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 8,470. Post Holiday Avg = 4,597.
Wii - Established Trend: 55-78k. Next Gen Avg = 103,237. Post Holiday Avg = 70,200.
PS3 - Almost 360's trend: 8-18k. Next Gen Avg = 40,421. Post Holiday Avg = 21,423.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3 pretty much speaks for itself. With virtually nothing to offer the Japanese gamer, at a comparatively high price (to the competition), this will not change for the foreseeable future. 8-20k unless something changes. Drastically.
● Another confirmation week for the Wii. It just confirms that the Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, and it appears that units are being held back for a possible holiday-week blitz. 60-80k for the next several weeks, with a possible +20-40k bump for the holidays. 100k week would not be out of the question. Some might say I'm bullish on Wii sales.
SPECIAL HOLIDAY EDITION: Expectations for 04/23-04/29
360 - 10k*
Wii - 92k >> underestimated last week by 9k.
PS3 - 20k << overestimated last week by 8k
* = within 5k estimation success the previous week!
This Week's Market Share:
LTD Market Share Week-to-Week
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 8 weeks. (currently 1,319,124 lead)
● The PS3 just had its worst week ever. For the third week in a row.
● The Wii sold 7.08x the PS3 this week, and has 2.55x LTD.
● The Wii is around ~11 weeks from breaking 3 million.
● The PS3 is around ~14 weeks from breaking 1 million.
● The PS3 has never. once. outsold. the Wii.
● The Wii has gained ground on the PS3 week every week that both have been on sale.
● The Wii seriously has 103k weekly average (21 weeks). The PS3? 40k.
● This is the 8th continuous week that the PS3 has sold less than the previous week.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by JUNE 2007. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by FREAKING OCTOBER 2007.
● The Wii will have a 5 million unit lead by MAY 2008. Soak that up for a second.
Additional thoughts
1. 91k home consoles sold this week in Japan.
2. If you're developing for the PS3, you're going multi-platform. If not, Sony is paying you the difference.
3. I have officially moved up my "the PS3 has until this date to figure-it-the-****-out" to January 2008. And it won't.
4. Nintendo just won next-gen. Seriously. Reread this statement and go melt down your N64 and your GC for the failures that they really were.
5. The PS3 is two games from complete irrelevance to the Japanese market.
Since 11/27/07:
21 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
15 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 8,470. Post Holiday Avg = 4,597.
Wii - Established Trend: 55-78k. Next Gen Avg = 103,237. Post Holiday Avg = 70,200.
PS3 - Almost 360's trend: 8-18k. Next Gen Avg = 40,421. Post Holiday Avg = 21,423.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3 pretty much speaks for itself. With virtually nothing to offer the Japanese gamer, at a comparatively high price (to the competition), this will not change for the foreseeable future. 8-20k unless something changes. Drastically.
● Another confirmation week for the Wii. It just confirms that the Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, and it appears that units are being held back for a possible holiday-week blitz. 60-80k for the next several weeks, with a possible +20-40k bump for the holidays. 100k week would not be out of the question. Some might say I'm bullish on Wii sales.
SPECIAL HOLIDAY EDITION: Expectations for 04/23-04/29
360 - 10k*
Wii - 92k >> underestimated last week by 9k.
PS3 - 20k << overestimated last week by 8k
* = within 5k estimation success the previous week!
This Week's Market Share:
LTD Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
Date____ 360 Wii PS3
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%
02/12-02/18: 13% 62% 26%
02/19-02/25: 12% 62% 25%
03/26-03/04: 12% 62% 26%
03/05-03/11: 12% 62% 26%
03/12-03/18: 11% 62% 26%
03/19-03/25: 11% 63% 26%
03/26-04/01: 11% 63% 26%
04/02-04/08: 11% 63% 26%
04/09-04/15: 11% 64% 26%
04/16-04/22: 10% 64% 25%Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 8 weeks. (currently 1,319,124 lead)
● The PS3 just had its worst week ever. For the third week in a row.
● The Wii sold 7.08x the PS3 this week, and has 2.55x LTD.
● The Wii is around ~11 weeks from breaking 3 million.
● The PS3 is around ~14 weeks from breaking 1 million.
● The PS3 has never. once. outsold. the Wii.
● The Wii has gained ground on the PS3 week every week that both have been on sale.
● The Wii seriously has 103k weekly average (21 weeks). The PS3? 40k.
● This is the 8th continuous week that the PS3 has sold less than the previous week.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by JUNE 2007. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by FREAKING OCTOBER 2007.
● The Wii will have a 5 million unit lead by MAY 2008. Soak that up for a second.
Additional thoughts
1. 91k home consoles sold this week in Japan.
2. If you're developing for the PS3, you're going multi-platform. If not, Sony is paying you the difference.
3. I have officially moved up my "the PS3 has until this date to figure-it-the-****-out" to January 2008. And it won't.
4. Nintendo just won next-gen. Seriously. Reread this statement and go melt down your N64 and your GC for the failures that they really were.
5. The PS3 is two games from complete irrelevance to the Japanese market.
It is absurd how, at this rate, in less than a year the Wii will have sold as much as the Gamecube did in it's lifetime. And this isn't taking into accounts holiday sales or big name games. When Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Bros. Brawl, and the 'non-game' style Wii Health/Fitness/Music/whatever come out.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I know nobody asked, but I just wanted to assert that my personal belief is that the first to 5 million always wins.
Is it too early to wonder if Sony will "32x" the PS3?
Is it too early to wonder if Sony will "32x" the PS3?
Eteric Rice
Member
PantherLotus said:
Does that count head starts?... Because, uh...
Journeywalker
Member
For some reason, I expected higher for SPM. Anyone else noticing that while Wii is quickly catching up to Gamecube, traditional Nintendo IPs haven't benefitted all that much from the console's popularity? On DS, it's pretty easy to see that staple Nintendo franchises have expanded in parallel with the "trainings". With Wii, sales of Zelda, Fire Emblem, and SPM are (roughly) flat from the previous generation.
But more importantly, I prefer the old "freedom-fighter" Gahiggidy over the new, "get me my numbers!" version.
But more importantly, I prefer the old "freedom-fighter" Gahiggidy over the new, "get me my numbers!" version.
Thats an interesting thought.PantherLotus said:
I never expected Sony to be in such bad shape globaly, so early, or at all. I dont know what they are going to do.
The most amazing thing about the whole situation is that Sony had nothing lined up as a back-up plan. No big games, nothing to spur sales. It's almost as if they thought that failure was impossible.
Thats the amazing part of the whole thing. The sheer arrogance.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Journeywalker said:
Good, but limited, observation. Every "franchise" you mentioned was a GC port. No troll.
Let me know what happens to Smash.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
Link said:
Take your pick.
Miniboss1232
Member
PantherLotus said:
And actually, so far, Super Paper Mario's numbers are looking better than the other Paper Mario games during their first weeks as well.
I think a lot of people are thinking for some reason that Super Paper Mario is somehow equivalent to an actual, real-life platforming Mario game. Paper Mario is a franchise, just like Super Mario is.
Chris Michael
Banned
Dragona Akehi said:Take your pick.
:lol :lol :lol :lol
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I actually think that SONY won't sit on a failure like the PS3. I would not be shocked if they bricked the PS3 by next April and had something else with a new name/new look/new price (same hardware) to fill in its shoes, right around the same time that FFXIII and MGS4 and GT5 all come out.
Bad news: 2/3 of those are 3rd party. Sony is now finding out the cost of buying your way to the SuperBowl--the star players only want to play (stay) on star teams.
Bad news: 2/3 of those are 3rd party. Sony is now finding out the cost of buying your way to the SuperBowl--the star players only want to play (stay) on star teams.
Cheesemeister
Member
By this logic, the PlayStation 5 will totally dominate the market. I'm already looking forward to FFXVI and MGS8 in 6-D.
Miniboss1232
Member
Cheesemeister said:
Heh, I think I'd be fine with that. The industry needs these sort of self-regulating shake-ups every ten years or so. Not only that, but it's fun to watch people squirm.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
This reminds me of something from Nintendo's PDF today. Should we really put stock in Media Create's GCN total? Nintendo claims to have shipped 4.02 million to Japan. That's 150K below what Media Create claims as sold. Famitsu stopped tracking GCN a few weeks ago at just under 4.01 million, so that seems pretty close.Cheesemeister said:
In short, I guess I'm saying that Wii might catch up to GCN slightly sooner than Media Create's GCN total suggests.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Link said:
Like I said. "32x" it. Sega never recovered. What can Sony do? Seriously.
Let's throw all the bullshit, all the fanboy crap, all the OMG LOOK AT THEM FAIL rejoicing out the window. Let's pretend for just a moment, just long enough to make it interesting, that we control Sony.
What should Sony do? You can't just tell your shareholders "LOL 3rd PARTY!Z!" They want answers. Now. Assuming that Sony wants to maintain a level of dominance in Japan in the videogame market...what could they possibly do to change the current (and obvious) trends?
RandomVince said:
Madden is out this week I think?
Ninja Gaiden Sigma is 6/14 I believe, although how big it will be remains to be seen. Do we have NG and NG Black numbers for Japan? I predict 75000. High / Low? Also Call of Duty 3 is out. Maybe that will sell more than the 360 version in Japan? :lol
The week after that is FolkSouls: Monster Kingdom. What do we expect on this? 80000? 130000? Do we have a previous incarnation (PSP) to go on?
The week after that is Marvel Ultimate Alliance and Rainbow Six: Vegas.
Finally, the week after that is My Summer Holiday 3.
Then we hit a dry couple of weeks until 7/26 when we get Hot Shots Golf 5, and Wangan midnight. I thought this might be a good day for PS3, but it looks like we are getting about 76 DS games and the Wii Gundam game as well. Still I expect HSG5 to do well, and maybe 50000 for Wangan?
Don't have any dates for after that, but willing to bet Eye of Judgement with the camera thing is in August. When does LAIR hit Japan? Also Trusty Bell port (if true)?
I am not surprised the PS3 is slow right now, I am surprised that nothing is really coming out. There was a lot announced that we haven't seen or heard much of. I doubt this is big projects (or even small ones) moving to Wii, or being double-dipped on 360.
I'll put on my Sony hat (not sure when I got one, I hated Sony till I picked up a PS3) and make a quick spin to say that the percentage of 6-digit selling games must be close to the Wii so things aren't that bad :lol
m
TheGreatDave
Banned
There's nothing Sony can do but attempt to prolong the life of the PS3 by giving it a "rebirth" at a point where they can sell it at a more accessible price, and with titles that are captivating for the market. A price cut at this point is pretty much out of the question (especially in Japan) so all they can do is try and ride it out.
Galactic Fork
A little fluff between the ears never did any harm...
Cheesemeister said:
You know, that means sony wasn't kidding with those commercials for the PS9 back when the PS2 came out. That one's going to be the thing that pulls them out of the two gen slump after this one. Looks like that gen's big innovation will be those nano nose sensor thingies. I just hope there's not a new Konker remake that generation.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
TheGreatDave said:
Your shareholders would fire you, but you're right.
wonderfuldays
Member
Link said:
26 July actually.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Honestly? I think they just need to eat the cost and lower the price. Yeah, they'll bleed heavily from it, but it's the only chance to save the brand at this point. In the long term, it's the better move. It would probably cost them just as much to do what you're suggesting anyway.PantherLotus said:
EDIT -
Really? I thought it was June. Did it get delayed or am I having a brain fart?wonderfuldays said:
wonderfuldays
Member
bgassassin
Member
Microsoft
Sony
Nintendo
How can they achieve 6-D without Ken at the helm?
Sony
Nintendo
Cheesemeister said:
How can they achieve 6-D without Ken at the helm?
I have thought about this. There's no good answers.PantherLotus said:
If I had to choose? If I ran Sony and had to make a choice? I would drastically cut PS3 production, PS3 marketing, cut the game budget for PS3, just cut deep everywhere. Not completely gut the division, and not completely cut ties with willing third-parties, but scale WAY down. Note I wouldn't ANNOUNCE I was abandoning PS3, and I would keep a few high-profile game projects running.
Next, I would just quietly start firing up PS2 development again. I would toss whatever legal and engineering resources I could at cracking the problem of duplicating the Wii Remote (as close as I could, without breaking patents). If possible I would relaunch PS2 with Wii-style control, meaning single hand controller, pointer functionality, and the motion sensing. Perhaps find a way to make it snap together with a nunchuk-like attachment into one normal two-handed controller. A splittable Dualshock, in other words. Launch the system for $150.
Brag about a three-pillar strategy (seriously!) Waggle and a huge game catalog on the re-launched PS2, portability and PS1 games on the PSP, and next-gen on PS3. Try to keep developers working on Wii ports to the PS2, and throw some of Sony's considerable first-party resources into keeping the PS2 lineup healthy.
For God's sake, release GT Portable. Fire whomever you have to and hire whomever you have to, just get the game made.
Finally, position PS3 as Blu-Ray player/game console. It will never be a dominant console, just get what you can out of it for a few years as a cheaper Blu-Ray player with extra capabilities. Completely de-emphasize the gaming side. After a few years, 2010 or so, retool the PS3 a bit, completely rebrand it, and perhaps even abandon the PlayStation name... And release your next next-gen console with the same basic architecture and a much lower price-point, plus waggle. And finally kill the PS2.
There you go. Radical, not guaranteed to work, but it plays up Sony's current strengths and stops tossing so much good money after bad until PS3's price structure starts to make sense in several years.
PantherLotus said:
FF13 demo. Now. J/K
How about a Gundam Musou or VF5 demo?
I think a lot of this falls on the third parties. After May 12th, we'll see what Square is up to. I bet they will be able to push a few units out just giving a demo of FF13 though. People will get a PS3 for the demo, and keep it until the game comes out.
Where is Monster Hunter 3? It's one of the top 10 wanted games (I think) and we've seen shit all on it. On a side-note, although I wouldn't be surprised if this goes multi, I am wondering if Sony has in fact $-hatted this one since by the PSP sales a DS incarnation should be announced tomorrow for release yesterday.
Price drop would also help.
After E3 things will be more apparent.
m