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Media Create Sales 4/9 - 4/15
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
Great Rumbler
Member
Cheesemeister said:
How can the PS3 sell 160,000 units in 1.5 weeks?
Or am I missing something here?
Smiles and Cries
Member
I wonder if the PS3 could cause a crash in the video games market in Japan?
I mean in the form of some devs who was banking heavily on the system having to close shop.
I mean in the form of some devs who was banking heavily on the system having to close shop.
Cheesemeister
Member
Great Rumbler said:
Cheesemeister said:
.
1-D_FTW said:
I'm not really familiar with this, because I didn't follow games as much in the N64 days. Is that what happened in Japan with big releases like Mario 64 and Zelda?
There's some anecdotal evidence that this has happened with the Xbox 360 and Blue Dragon too isn't there?
Smiles and Cries
Member
joetachi said:
what is this moku train you guys speak of?
Cheesemeister
Member
Smiles and Cries said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=5947664&postcount=335
moku said:
The moku train.
Great Rumbler
Member
Cheesemeister said:
Apparently I was missing something there! Carry on then.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
Smiles and Cries said:
Big guys like Konami and Square can take a hit since they make $$$ on other games. I think there would be a massive creativity fallout at Sony though. Since there is money to be made elsewhere, the market won't crash.
Smaller guys like Game Arts, Tri Ace, Tri Cresedo aren't even making PS3 games
Cheesemeister
Member
This Week Sales:
Since 11/27/07:
20 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
14 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 8,778. Post Holiday Avg = 4,760.
Wii - Slightly above the trend: 55-72k. Next Gen Avg = 104,503. Post Holiday Avg = 70,562.
PS3 - NEW TREND: 10-20k. Next Gen Avg = 41,892. Post Holiday Avg = 22,168.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. A week on week perspective (upper graph) actually shows a CONTINUED slide to oblivion. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3. Look at the weekly chart. Seriously. The PS3 line is practically humping the 360 line. And not in the good way. One announcement will put this thing out of its misery. 10-20k per week, with a tiny bump for the holiday.
● Up-swing week for the Wii. The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, and it appears that units are being held back for a possible holiday-week blitz. 60-80k for the next several weeks, with a possible +20-40k bump for the holidays. 100k week would not be out of the question.
SPECIAL HOLIDAY EDITION: Expectations for 04/09-04/15
360 - 10k*
Wii - 92k >> underestimated last week by 9k.
PS3 - 20k << overestimated last week by 8k
* = within 5k estimation success the previous week!
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share Week-to-Week
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 7 weeks. (currently 1,252,211 lead)
● The PS3 just had its worst week ever at 12k units (previous worst LAST WEEK).
● The Wii sold 6.34x the PS3 this week, and has 2.49x LTD.
● The Wii is around 3-4 months from breaking 3 million.
● The PS3 is around 3-4 from breaking 1 million.
● The PS3 has never. once. outsold. the Wii.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by September 2007. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by FREAKING NOVEMBER 2007.
Additional thoughts
1. Rebound week for console hardware after two down weeks. (90k units total)
2. If you're developing for the PS3, you're going multi-platform. If not, Sony is paying you the difference.
3. I have officially moved up my "the PS3 has until this date to figure-it-the-****-out" to January 2008. And it won't.
4. Nintendo just won next-gen. Seriously. Reread this statement and go melt down your N64 and your GC for the failures that they really were.
5. The PS3 is THIS close ][ to 360-levels of Japanese irrelevance. Is that sinking in, boys? It will take barely one major announcement (FF, MGS, DQX, etc) from being the nail in the homeland coffin.
Since 11/27/07:
20 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
14 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 8,778. Post Holiday Avg = 4,760.
Wii - Slightly above the trend: 55-72k. Next Gen Avg = 104,503. Post Holiday Avg = 70,562.
PS3 - NEW TREND: 10-20k. Next Gen Avg = 41,892. Post Holiday Avg = 22,168.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. A week on week perspective (upper graph) actually shows a CONTINUED slide to oblivion. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● PS3. Look at the weekly chart. Seriously. The PS3 line is practically humping the 360 line. And not in the good way. One announcement will put this thing out of its misery. 10-20k per week, with a tiny bump for the holiday.
● Up-swing week for the Wii. The Wii is clearly dependent upon hardware shipments, and it appears that units are being held back for a possible holiday-week blitz. 60-80k for the next several weeks, with a possible +20-40k bump for the holidays. 100k week would not be out of the question.
SPECIAL HOLIDAY EDITION: Expectations for 04/09-04/15
360 - 10k*
Wii - 92k >> underestimated last week by 9k.
PS3 - 20k << overestimated last week by 8k
* = within 5k estimation success the previous week!
This Week's Market Share:
Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
Date____ 360 Wii PS3
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%
02/12-02/18: 13% 62% 26%
02/19-02/25: 12% 62% 25%
03/26-03/04: 12% 62% 26%
03/05-03/11: 12% 62% 26%
03/12-03/18: 11% 62% 26%
03/19-03/25: 11% 63% 26%
03/26-04/01: 11% 63% 26%
04/02-04/08: 11% 63% 26%
04/09-04/15: 11% 64% 26%Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 7 weeks. (currently 1,252,211 lead)
● The PS3 just had its worst week ever at 12k units (previous worst LAST WEEK).
● The Wii sold 6.34x the PS3 this week, and has 2.49x LTD.
● The Wii is around 3-4 months from breaking 3 million.
● The PS3 is around 3-4 from breaking 1 million.
● The PS3 has never. once. outsold. the Wii.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by September 2007. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by FREAKING NOVEMBER 2007.
Additional thoughts
1. Rebound week for console hardware after two down weeks. (90k units total)
2. If you're developing for the PS3, you're going multi-platform. If not, Sony is paying you the difference.
3. I have officially moved up my "the PS3 has until this date to figure-it-the-****-out" to January 2008. And it won't.
4. Nintendo just won next-gen. Seriously. Reread this statement and go melt down your N64 and your GC for the failures that they really were.
5. The PS3 is THIS close ][ to 360-levels of Japanese irrelevance. Is that sinking in, boys? It will take barely one major announcement (FF, MGS, DQX, etc) from being the nail in the homeland coffin.
bgassassin
Member
Cheesemeister said:
The megaton I thought about bringing up, but I wanted to be original.
Satanmonkey
Member
If i were a an executive for a developer working on an exclusive ps3 game right now, and my eyes had gently rested upon this weeks hardware sales, i'd have shit through my own mouth.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
I am also on the moku boat now. I think Final Fantasy XIII will be put on hold and maybe if these horrible sales continue eventually cancelled.
The game was already in development for PS2, so I think they would port those assets over to Wii and start making the game from there. I hope they use the Bouncer engine though! The Bouncer looks better than FF12
The game was already in development for PS2, so I think they would port those assets over to Wii and start making the game from there. I hope they use the Bouncer engine though! The Bouncer looks better than FF12
Cheesemeister said:
I'm not trying to spin the utterly horrible PS3 sales here, but can we really call it this early? I mean, shouldn't we at least wait until FFXIII
(is announced for the Wii)
Are there any examples of a console doing great only to have a poor early performer come from behind and win it all? I can't think of any off the top of my head, but I haven't followed sales closely until now.
SouthernDragon
Member
Is it wrong for me to hope that FF13 will go multiplatform on the Wii? I mean, I believe that SE can crank out amazing things from the Wii if so inclined.
Smiles and Cries
Member
Cheesemeister said:
You know maybe thats the reason they said Nintendo fans should look out for the Square Party next month. Square may indeed announce a port of the game for Wii. It would be very wise to do this at this point. They don't have to show anything for the game, PS3 can still be lead platform but get a quality port started for Wii to cover your ass.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
GDGF said:
There will be no remake, it was a tech demo -_-
soul creator
Member
Xavien said:
:lol
Code:
Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 133,471 | 110,935 | 2,174,697 | 16,180,376
2. WII - 75,759 | 52,583 | 1,170,417 | 2,090,060
3. PSP - 24,850 | 31,503 | 740,904 | 5,273,033
4. PS2 - 12,872 | 14,234 | 285,807 | 20,440,666
5. [B]PS3 - 11,948[/B] | 14,520 | 380,291 | 837,849
6. 360 - 2,900 | 2,963 | 84,876 | 349,578
7. GBA - 1,297 | 1,357 | 32,165 | 15,330,244
8. NGC - 167 | 255 | 5,936 | 4,175,404
I guess it's time for me to get on the Moku train as well.
miguel_c_hammer
Member
Ouch. You can just about stick a fork in PSP. It'll be interesting to see if FF stabilizes it next week.
MrSardonic
The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
duderon said:
You laugh, but as long as the Wii
S3 ratio remains above 5.61:1 then it will happen.MrSardonic said:You laugh, but as long as the Wii
The thing is..going by releases for the next few months and Nintendo's pledge to increase production- its only going to get worse. Potentially, much worse.
Thanks for that post Cheese, very thorough. I couldn't help but chuckle at the many dramatic (yet true) statements and conclusions.
Anyway, if I were Nintendo right now, I would be doing EVERYTHING I could to make sure that I exclusively snag one of the few remaining huge japanese future exclusives from Sony. And Im talking something like the next console DQ, or FF. It would solidify their victory outright, in no uncertain terms. Take this moment of victory and invest it to ensure that you extend it to the entire generation. They certainly have the monetary resources, as well as leverage through their sales to do just that.
Anyway, if I were Nintendo right now, I would be doing EVERYTHING I could to make sure that I exclusively snag one of the few remaining huge japanese future exclusives from Sony. And Im talking something like the next console DQ, or FF. It would solidify their victory outright, in no uncertain terms. Take this moment of victory and invest it to ensure that you extend it to the entire generation. They certainly have the monetary resources, as well as leverage through their sales to do just that.
Cheesemeister
Member
Slurpy said:
Don't thank me.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
GDGF said:
Dude the fans only went batshit nuts because it looked soo damn good! If a FF7 remake with FF12 quality graphics were to be released, it wouldn't make a big impact.
Like I said before FF13 was being worked on PS2 before Square Enix got the PS3 dev kits. I am sure they still have those PS2 code and assets, moving those over to wii would be much better.
BrodiemanTTR
Member
With sales like this, it's surprising that more high-profile Wii games aren't being announced on a weekly basis. Famitsu should be switching to tiny print in order to fit all the big-name exclusive Wii announcements in. And yet, a part of me can't help but think that nothing will change; Wii will continue to get third-string efforts; FFXIII, DQX, and an FFVII remake will stay on/go to PS3, just because.
EDIT: But for those saying that Wii couldn't handle an FFVII remake (it wouldn't b wurth it cuz Wii = PS1 m i rite?!?), looking at those demo shots and then at REmake and RE0 tells me otherwise.
EDIT2: Bah, got my streams crossed.
EDIT: But for those saying that Wii couldn't handle an FFVII remake (it wouldn't b wurth it cuz Wii = PS1 m i rite?!?), looking at those demo shots and then at REmake and RE0 tells me otherwise.
EDIT2: Bah, got my streams crossed.
BrodiemanTTR said:
a.) it sounds like your beef is only with SquareEnix
b.) DQIX is on DS; with sales like this, there's a zero percent chance DQX will be on PS3. Wii is almost assured at this point. (Thank god FFXIII isn't held back by Wii, though. At least Square made that decision before PS3 tanked, so we get true next-gen FF.)
c.) I'm sure all devs and scrambling to start ratcheting up development for Wii. It'll get bombastic around Fall and beyond
TheGreatDave
Banned
BrodiemanTTR said:
Nobody had any faith in Wii until May 06, and even then it's only recently they've been able to look at sales and know for sure the product's hot. So I'm not giving up hope yet, although I do share your fears somewhat.
Cheesemeister
Member
Slurpy said:
Don't assume, yadda, yadda. Hopefully I won't be making that analysis post anymore... I don't think. *counts on fingers*
Doom_Bringer
Banned
Rur0ni said:
Kuturagi won't be working on it. That's for sure
Media Create Threads for week X - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 12000!"
Media Create Threads for week X+1 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 11500!"
Media Create Threads for week X+2 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 11000!"
Media Create Threads for week X+3 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 10500!"
etc...
Yawn...
Not as if these numbers should be a surprise boys.
I too am wondering where the games are all. A lot of developers are jumping on the DS and Wii bandwagons, definitely. But I think there are a lot of developers who are still holding stuff back for the time being. We aren't seeing everything going to 360 and the stuff going to DS / Wii isn't really bigtime stuff. Even Sony has to have a lot more cooking. Are they waiting for PS2 to actually die before they go to PS3? Even so it would be nice to have something to play over Golden Week, morons.
"E3" will be interesting this year (hopefully)...
m
Media Create Threads for week X+1 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 11500!"
Media Create Threads for week X+2 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 11000!"
Media Create Threads for week X+3 - "Wow I wonder if the PS3 can go below 10500!"
etc...
Yawn...
Not as if these numbers should be a surprise boys.
I too am wondering where the games are all. A lot of developers are jumping on the DS and Wii bandwagons, definitely. But I think there are a lot of developers who are still holding stuff back for the time being. We aren't seeing everything going to 360 and the stuff going to DS / Wii isn't really bigtime stuff. Even Sony has to have a lot more cooking. Are they waiting for PS2 to actually die before they go to PS3? Even so it would be nice to have something to play over Golden Week, morons.
"E3" will be interesting this year (hopefully)...
m
Cheesemeister
Member
legend166 said:
Why, you're right! Here, use this one:
