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[Xisiqomelir]

I enjoyed this week's thread except for the GTAIV hypothetical SKU game. Even more juniors next week, please!

 

[BishopLamont]

MGS will struggle, it wasn't that big in Japan in the first place. FF13 is a different story, it should go 1M at the very least.

 

[KINGMOKU]

MGS will struggle, it wasn't that big in Japan in the first place. FF13 is a different story, it should go 1M at the very least.

It better do a hell of alot more then that.

 

[Xeke]

Gaming is such a soap opera.

 

[LanceStern]

Xbox 360 sales are abnormally high for both A+ and B and C software. They are HUGE, and most debut with solid first months and build up to a great LTD.

Wii does not share this. There are about 4 titles that do really well ( over 500k ), and 4 more that do a decent (over 200k) amount, but after that they all drop like rocks to 100k and less.

Wii is still relatively small compared to the 360 in terms of US fanbase. And considering quality of 3rd party titles (B titles at BEST) and types of games coming out, it's no wonder they are small compared to the 360.

I feel it's a slightly premature statement.

 

[ksamedi]

It better do a hell of alot more then that.

I dont think it will do more then 1.5 million, which would be a big failure for the franchise because of next gen costs and past sales of the series. Maybe im wrong, but for the moment, it doesnt look that good for the PS3.

 

[Speevy]

Elder Scrolls Morrowind: Oblivion?


Maybe that's what we all wish it was.

 

[speedpop]

Gaming is such a soap opera.

It's the people in here who are the actors though.

 

[KINGMOKU]

It's the people in here who are the actors though.

Are you sure?

 

[ComputerNerd]

What were Hot Shots Golf 1st day #'s?

 

[legend166]

No doubt 360 software sales are fantastic, but I think they're a bit overblown sometimes. I mean, sure Lost Planet sold well, but it had a 20 million dollar advertising budget. I think any game that has a 20 million dollar advertising budget can sell 1 million copies.

 

[vanguardian1]

Xbox 360 sales are abnormally high for both A+ and B and C software. They are HUGE, and most debut with solid first months and build up to a great LTD.

Wii does not share this. There are about 4 titles that do really well ( over 500k ), and 4 more that do a decent (over 200k) amount, but after that they all drop like rocks to 100k and less.

Wii is still relatively small compared to the 360 in terms of US fanbase. And considering quality of 3rd party titles (B titles at BEST) and types of games coming out, it's no wonder they are small compared to the 360.

I feel it's a slightly premature statement.

It doesn't help that the 360's "C" software, as far as quality goes, blows out about 98% of the Wii's library. ~_~

 

[Lobster]

What were Hot Shots Golf 1st day #'s?

Half of Everybody Golf 4.

 

[KINGMOKU]

It doesn't help that the 360's "C" software, as far as quality goes, blows out about 98% of the Wii's library. ~_~

The question really should be;

"How is software going to sell on the Wii, when it has the same quality, and diversity of that of the 360?"

Look at how well the software is selling with whats out there. That should surprise everyone.

 

[davepoobond]

Half of Everybody Golf 4.

i think that's actually sort of good, since there's...not exactly half of the PS2's userbase in japan on the PS3.

 

[rakka]

Half of Everybody Golf 4.

I don't think that's a bad thing however.

 

[jarrod]

OIn the US, GRAW sold more than twice as much as Red Steel and Rayman combined.

Not in 360's first 9 months it didn't. And GRAW likely did the vast majority of it's sales in America, while the Wii twins are probably more evenly split between NA and EU.... which is another problem with direct comparisons; limited data.

360 3rd party games might be "slaughtering" their Wii counterparts month to month looking at just NPD, but that's just a third the world market and by far plays into 360's favor the most (it's struggling in EU and dead in Japan).

The Wii has sold a lot of software, but again, not as much as the 360 has -- even when looking at narrowly defined comparable timeframes the 360 far eclipses it.

I'm not sure that's correct either actually... going by worldwide shipment figures, Wii had nearly a 5:1 ratio last March, which is basically unheard of for a 4 month old platform.

Do we have any comparable 2006 figures for 360 to go by?

Xbox 360 sales are abnormally high for both A+ and B and C software. They are HUGE, and most debut with solid first months and build up to a great LTD.

Uh... where's the "C software" in that list?

 

[ComputerNerd]

Half of Everybody Golf 4.

Which were... ???

I only see 1st week sales for #4.

 

[BishopLamont]

It better do a hell of alot more then that.

Wii will see.

Originally Posted by Lobster:
Half of Everybody Golf 4's first week.

fixed.

 

[vanguardian1]

The question really should be;

"How is software going to sell on the Wii, when it has the same quality, and diversity of that of the 360?"

Look at how well the software is selling with whats out there. That should surprise everyone.

As frustrating as it is, I'm not sure most developers are willing to give it that chance, it feels more like they're just putting on a face at this point. As it is the best 3rd party support for the Wii this holiday season wouldn't be rated any higher than "B" class on the 360, it seems. ;_;


Other than the "banned" site, is there any safe place to quote software sales numbers from?

 

[KINGMOKU]

Not in 360's first 9 months it didn't. And GRAW likely did the vast majority of it's sales in America, while the Wii twins are probably more evenly split between NA and EU.... which is another problem with direct comparisons; limited data.

360 3rd party games might be "slaughtering" their Wii counterparts month to month looking at just NPD, but that's just a thrid of the world market and by far plays into 360's favor the most (it's struggling in EU and dead in Japan).



I'm not sure that's not correct either actually... going by worldwide shipment figures, Wii had nearly a 5:1 ratio last March, which is basically unheard of for a 4 month old platform.

Do we have any comparable 2006 figures for 360 to go by?



Uh... where's the "C software" in that list?

Now this is where things start getting juicy.

ethelred?

Spoiler

ENTERTAIN ME

 

[KINGMOKU]

As frustrating as it is, I'm not sure most developers are willing to give it that chance, it feels more like they're just putting on a face at this point. As it is the best 3rd party support for the Wii this holiday season wouldn't be rated any higher than "B" class on the 360, it seems. ;_;


Other than the "banned" site, is there any safe place to quote software sales numbers from?

No. Only public data. Posting ANYTHING related to ANYTHING not NPD/MCreate/Famitus is commiting GAFicide.

 

[RiskyChris]

As frustrating as it is, I'm not sure most developers are willing to give it that chance, it feels more like they're just putting on a face at this point. As it is the best 3rd party support for the Wii this holiday season wouldn't be rated any higher than "B" class on the 360, it seems. ;_;

3rd parties will make the plunge or perish. Wii will have what, nearly a 20M userbase by March? Good god!

 

[Jokeropia]

What were Hot Shots Golf 1st day #'s?

Cited as above 100k, same for Mario Party.

 

[ComputerNerd]

Cited as above 100k, same for Mario Party.

ty

 

[PantherLotus]

Are the charts going bi-weekly or monthly? Do I need to automate them? =(

I've just been late the past couple weeks. They're there. Just a busy several weeks, some criticism, and a new format are all kinda adding up. I'll do it later tonight.

Last week I was out of town (DC baby!), and last night I was at a Royals game (**** yeah!). Ignore my tripe while I get to chartin'.

 

[Lobster]

First day numbers :

-Mario Party 8 and MnGolf 5 both sell over 100K.
-MP8 numbers are 3 times higher than MP7 first day numbers.
-MnGolf 5 numbers are about half the MnGolf 4 first day numbers.
-"Beginner's pack" (Mng 5 + PS3) hasn't sold much.
-Oblivion (XBox 360) : 35K (better than Trusty Bell's 30K)
-Taiko no Tatsujin DS : 50K (some places are sold out already, new shipment only end of august)
-Gundam MS 0079 Wii : 30K
-Metal Gear anniversary box : 15K
-GTA Liberty City Stories : 20K

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=7200357&postcount=584

So the Junior who thought they fixed me was wrong.

 

[mclem]

You guys and your 'casual vs. hardcore' fallacy. Ridiculous. They're extremely poor and inaccurate labels invented by the insecure to help sort games by genre.

Rather than worry about which "casual" games will appeal to ''hardcore'' gamers, or vice versa, we would be better off discussing specifically what audience each game may have a crossover appeal to.

And for the record, it's complete bullshit to think that a gamer that likes deeper games may not like games that are not as deep. Viva Pinata didn't sell not because hardcore gamers don't like casual games, it didn't sell because it didn't appeal to them. Tetris isn't one of the best selling games in history (and most emulated) because "hardcore people like it too," but because it has a UNIVERSAL APPEAL.

Casual vs. Hardcore has to stop now. I know it's throwing sand in the ocean at this point, but these assumptions that all games fall into one or the other category, moreover that gamers are either one or the other, has to stop immediately. Call the games what they are (edutainment? arcade? party? kids? etc) and stop trying to classify gamers as well. Rather than trying to separate them into two singular audiences, have a little depth (and education) and realize that we're talking about DEMOGRAPHICS. Specify which you mean or keep looking foolish.

Meanwhile, the two terms continue to hamper industry minds in its simplicity, and continue to poison our otherwise fascinating discussion. I've said my piece. Carry on.

Something I've been trying to say for some time, but you put it rather more eloquently than I was able to.

 

[PantherLotus]

NEXT GEN WEEKLY SALES 34

Since 11/27/07:
34 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
28 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.

Trends & Predictions
Trends are determined by the last 4 weeks of data. Averages are determined by total sales divided by the number of weeks posted above. Outside factors are considered (such as big releases, holidays, etc) when determining current trends and establishing predictions. Results are not an average. Previous week's success rate included for accountability.

360 - Established Trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 6,389. Post Holiday Avg = 3,868.
Wii - Establishing Trend: 74-91k. Next Gen Avg = 92,534. Post Holiday Avg = 72,543.
PS3 - Established Trend: 9-13k. Next Gen Avg = 29,084. Post Holiday Avg = 16,477.

Expectations for 07/23 - 07/29
360 - 2.7k <-- within 0.2k the previous week
Wii - 90k <-- within 5k the previous week
PS3 - 12.5k <-- within 0.9k the previous week

Significant Notes:
&#9679; The Wii has extended its lead to 2,157,304 over the PS3.
&#9679; 101,617 consoles sold this week. Wii had 85.41% of all console sales.
&#9679; The Wii only outsold the PS3 7.12:1 this week.
&#9679; The 5 million Wii watch party begins this week. If sales repeat this week's results, the Wii will hit 5 million the week of 12/23/07.
&#9679; The PS3 still has not hit its first million, after 9 months on sale. Should finally hit it next week.
&#9679; The 75% market share watch party continues. The Wii gained 0.4% this week (and 0.5% the week before). At this rate, the Wii will hit 75% in exactly 11 weeks.

Question of the Week
1. Do PS3 sales go up when people can't get a Wii? Look at the three (post holiday) bumps on the PS3 LTD line (look closely, they're hard to see). One of them was Gundabump--which happened to be the Wii's worst week ever, the other Golden week. The third? DQS week. I assert that Wii sales are actually one of the things that is buoying PS3 sales. Correlation or stupidity?

 

[BishopLamont]

Chart

Is it me or is the PS3 chunk in your pie a bit weird?

 

[PantherLotus]

Is it me or is the PS3 chunk in your pie a bit weird?

That's an excellent description of a non existent problem. Clarify a bit perhaps?

 

[HolyCheck]

god ps3 has flattened out, wii continues to rise tho!

top work panther!

 

[BishopLamont]

That's an excellent description of a non existent problem. Clarify a bit perhaps?

It's not circular, or is that how 3D pies suppose to look like? I know it's software rendered and all. Bah forget it...I just need my eyes checked. :lol

Oh just for laughs, I hope PS3 sells 11,139 next week just so it doesn't hit a mil.

Edit: Actually I did find something wrong with your chart Panther, check your PS3 numbers for LTD and Market Share.

 

[ComputerNerd]

Expectations for 07/23 - 07/29
360 - 2.7k <-- within 0.2k the previous week
Wii - 90k <-- within 5k the previous week
PS3 - 12.5k <-- within 0.9k the previous week

Did you forget the golf game came out this week?

My guess is PS3: 25k.

 

[LanceStern]

When you think about it,

The Xbox 360's hardware lead on the Wii in the US is roughly 2.6 million and drastically decreasing
The Wii's hardware lead on the Xbox 360 in Japan is roughly 2.7 million and drastically increasing

Wii is a few short months away from being hardware leader.

 

[schuelma]

When you think about it,

The Xbox 360's hardware lead on the Wii in the US is roughly 2.6 million and drastically decreasing
The Wii's hardware lead on the Xbox 360 in Japan is roughly 2.7 million and drastically increasing

Wii is a few short months away from being hardware leader.

Uhh...we've been saying that for a while. It's going to be within the next month or so.

 

[TJ Spyke]

By the end of August, the Wii will be the market leader. The Wii is confirmed to be at about 9.6 million, while Xbox 360 is about 11 million or so.

ComputerNerd, even with Hot Shots Golf 5 I can't see the PS3 jumping to 25K.

 

[LanceStern]

Uhh...we've been saying that for a while. It's going to be within the next month or so.

How could you have been saying the Wii's Japan lead is greater than the 360's US lead for a while now, if it just happened this week?

And I think PS3 can hit 25k with HSG... but perhaps 20k seems more feasible to me at this point

 

[schuelma]

How could you have been saying the Wii's Japan lead is greater than the 360's US lead for a while now, if it just happened this week?

Sorry; I mean we've been saying for a while that the Wii was soon going to catch up with 360 worldwide.

 

[BishopLamont]

How could you have been saying the Wii's Japan lead is greater than the 360's US lead for a while now, if it just happened this week?

What he means is we have been saying the Wii will be market leader soon for awhile now, jesus do you have to pick apart everything? Just think for god's sakes.

 

[Stumpokapow]

By the end of August, the Wii will be the market leader. The Wii is confirmed to be at about 9.6 million, while Xbox 360 is about 11 million or so.

XBox 360 is not yet at 10 million. Most people would guess around 9.6-9.9 million, depending on fudge factors used for the "other" regions. Wii is around 8.4 - 8.8 million.

How could you have been saying the Wii's Japan lead is greater than the 360's US lead for a while now, if it just happened this week?

Actually, based on the numbers you yourself use, it happened last week.

 

[felipeko]

What lance just said was this:

About the software sales, i will be waiting for a fair comparison.

 

[ethelred]

About the software sales, i will be waiting for a fair comparison.

If by "fair" you mean "shows Wii in the lead," you'll probably waiting a good long time. But keep the faith, true believer.

 

[felipeko]

If by "fair" you mean "shows Wii in the lead," you'll probably waiting a good long time. But keep the faith, true believer.

Well, i don't really think Wii is in the lead, it shouldn't be. But it's not being slaughtered by any means.

But i will keep the faith. Thanks.

 

[laserbeam]

By the end of August, the Wii will be the market leader. The Wii is confirmed to be at about 9.6 million, while Xbox 360 is about 11 million or so.

ComputerNerd, even with Hot Shots Golf 5 I can't see the PS3 jumping to 25K.

360 is at about 9.9 million Sales. So Wii should be market leader this month

 

[justchris]

I'd like to add my thoughts in on the whole argument about Wii vs 360 software sales.

When talking about 3rd party software sales, such as a hypothetical GTAIV tri-console release, it's pretty easy to exclude first party sales on the Wii. The reason is, when R* is deciding whether to put GTAIV on the Wii, they are not going to be looking at sales of Wii Play or Mario Party 8 when they make that decision. They're going to be looking at sales of games that match the demographic, games like Godfather Wii, which did decently, but not extrodinarily well.

If we're simply discussing things like userbase and tie ratio, then no, it's not right to exclude Nintendo's first party sales. And even with that, the 360 still has a higher tie ratio than the Wii (although I'm not sure it's tie ratio would still be higher if you limited it to the first 9 months). But when discussing 3rd party sales, it's fair to exclude first party sales for all 3 consoles, and just compare 3rd party to 3rd party. Of course, the best way to do it would be to only compare titles with similar play styles and content, meaning they'd be aimed at the same demographic.

So, back to talking about Dewey, what other platformers does the Wii even have, besides the upcoming Super Mario Galaxy? (You can't really count Super Paper Mario, it's an RPG that just happens to resolve battles & exploration through platforming.)

 

[schuelma]

So, back to talking about Dewey, what other platformers does the Wii even have, besides the upcoming Super Mario Galaxy? (You can't really count Super Paper Mario, it's an RPG that just happens to resolve battles & exploration through platforming.)

Can you really count Dewey? It seems like much more of a tilt game with some added functionality than a true platformer.

 

[justchris]

Can you really count Dewey? It seems like much more of a tilt game with some added functionality than a true platformer.

I don't know, can you? I haven't actually played it. Do we have an entire genre for tilt games now? I thought they were separated into either being maze games or platformers.

 

[LanceStern]

I don't know, can you? I haven't actually played it. Do we have an entire genre for tilt games now? I thought they were separated into either being maze games or platformers.

Ratatouiee (actually a very decent game)
Spongebob, another passable platformer.

Really waiting for Galaxy though. And I wish Ubisoft would make a real Rayman platformer. I wouldn't buy it, or probably even play it, but it's a quality game and diversifies the library

 

[cvxfreak]

That's a lotta bars you got there, ethelred.