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[Road]

Wii Fit + are not in the equation, like Wii Sports Resort.

And PS3 have FFXIII.

WSR did raise the baseline as Donny explained, from a 14k to a 20k weekly average. Considering that Wii Fit is actually a bigger hit, we can't really say it won't have any effect. Even 6k/week for the rest of the year would still be around 75k units.

What FFXIII and GT5 will do is level the play field, which is giving the PS3 chances of having, too, weeks over 100k in December, instead of the usual 40~50k.

It'll be an interesting month to watch that's for sure.

 

[Majmun]

People shouldn't underestimate a new 2D Mario Bros.
The game is going to be huge. And it'll probably have the biggest legs of any mentioned game in this thread.

I personally waited so long for a new console 2D Mario Bros.

 

[The_lascar]

WSR did raise the baseline as Donny explained, from a 14k to a 20k weekly average. Considering that Wii Fit is actually a bigger hit, we can't really say it won't have any effect. Even 6k/week for the rest of the year would still be around 75k units.

Wii Fit Plus will be a huge hit, yes, but not a big system seller. It's just Wii Fit... more. Wii Sports Resort has the Wii Motion Plus and new gameplay, it has greater potential than Wii Fit Plus for be a system seller.

I think.

 

[obonicus]

I ascribed the 360 increase more to software than to hardware price cuts (which should have only kept sales flat), though you may be right in that sticker shock above a certain price point may have been affecting the 360. If it were true for the 360, it would logically follow that it is true for the PS3.

This is OT, but I don't see why it'd be software. Christmas 2008 was good for Microsoft, no doubt, but not a huge improvement over Christmas 2007, title-wise. The software was there pre-September 2008. I'm not trying to say that the PS3 will have the same luck -- it's quite possible that the software isn't there, maybe price wasn't as big an issue. I was just questioning the notion that price drops never lead to sales spikes because I think we have a blatant counterexample.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Wii Fit+ and NSBWii are the greatest question marks on your prediction -- if they can make the Wii hardware go up before the end of the year. But you seem to be doing well on the Sony part of the equation. Hehe

In a sorta random short term prediction for this month:

PS3: 150 + 50 + 40 + 30 = 270
Wii: 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 = 100

170k lead advantage for the PS3.

Then it starts to gets harder because Wii Fit+ comes into equation.

Your short term prediction might be right, but I think the decline pace of the PS3 won't be as bad imo. I think the Wii will stay the same with MH3 and WSR selling at their pace. I don't think Wii Fit and NSMBWii will help the hardware that much. There will be a spike when NSMBWii comes out, but not the same when Wii Fit comes out. I think PS3 will outsell the Wii this year if current things stay the same, that goes for release dates of games and current conditions such as prices. Once December rolls around I think PS3 will gain a lot of hardware due to FF13. The biggest game for Wii so far this holiday is NSMBWii; it will move hardware and sell a lot. Wii has some games that will most likely move hardware such as SW3, CB, Resident Evil, and so forth. I believe Nintendo might give in to Sony this fall, but get back into domination starting next year. That is their choice.

Nintendo can do what they want and succeed, but many times they are stubborn and it's stupid. It will be interesting to see what TGS gives us as well as what Nintendo has to announce this October. Interesting times are coming.

 

[donny2112]

Considering that Wii Fit is actually a bigger hit, we can't really say it won't have any effect.

I still think that Wii Fit is selling a good portion of the Wiis sold each week, so something that raises the interest in Wii Fit would then raise the interest in Wii as an extension. Therefore, Wii Fit Plus could raise the baseline, as well.

Note: Famitsu software vs. MC hardware

You can see that throughout 2008, Wii Fit was ~50-75% of Wii's total. It went > 100% when Wii was really down in March/April of this year, but then went back to 50-75%. Wii Sports Resort raised the baseline some which made it selling less for Wii Fit each week, and Monster Hunter 3 has provided a recent boost lowering Wii Fit's %. I seriously think that if Nintendo can spark more interest in the Balance Board/Wii Fit series with Wii Fit Plus, though, that it could lead to a bump in Wii hardware sales, too. Just saying.

 

[jeremy1456]

Sony has an absolutely huge Christmas this year with FFXIII and Gran Turismo.

Nintendo's Christmas might not be as big but their lineup is no slouch. Tales of Graces, Final Fantasy: Crystal Bearers, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, and Samurai Warriors 3 should all perform decently.

EDIT: And of course, Wii Fit Plus will still be selling.

 

[Somnid]

I don't think Wii Fit Plus will do much more than WSR. I think that the saturation point has been reached (not suprising given how ridiculously high the sales are). I think it'll see well as software but the hardware bump might not be there. NSMB will do a lot more for Wii as it fills a niche not a lot of Wii (or PS3) software touches.

 

[onken]

So have we totally ruled out the possibility of GT5 being a Euro exclusive this Xmas?

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Sony has an absolutely huge Christmas this year with FFXIII and Gran Turismo.

Nintendo's Christmas might not be as big but their lineup is no slouch. Tales of Graces, Final Fantasy: Crystal Bearers, New Super Mario Bros. Wii, and Samurai Warriors 3 should all perform decently.

EDIT: And of course, Wii Fit Plus will still be selling.

Isn't Graces next year?

Nintendo will not win this holiday season if they are still with their current condition of no price drop. They can announce new colors, but I don't think they will bump HW more than a week or two. I doubt they will announce a new color every 2 weeks. Games will help the HW, but it will probably be due to the usual holiday bump. I expect more HW sales because this holiday there are more appealing games then last year. PS3's December will be monstrous imo. FF13 with the Slim; I predict 500k at least sold in that month for HW.

In order for Nintendo to do anything is announce a new game for fall release that would cause a huge bump in HW. NSMBWii will cause a bump but I don't think it will be sustained for a long time. I don't doubt the game will sell a lot tho. Another thing is price drop, but Nintendo said they aren't considering it this year. Things might change due to the amazing sales of the Slim so Nintendo might change their mind! I can't wait to see what happens.

 

[schuelma]

PS3's December will be monstrous imo. FF13 with the Slim; I predict 500k at least sold in that month for HW.

Just for a bit of perspective, Wii last December with a far worse lineup than it will have this year did 414K from Dec 1-28.

 

[Corran Horn]

People shouldn't underestimate a new 2D Mario Bros.
The game is going to be huge. And it'll probably have the biggest legs of any mentioned game in this thread.

I personally waited so long for a new console 2D Mario Bros.

*high five*
I cant wait for this. 2D Mario is one of the games I wanted on console for a long time now. Now for sonic to follow suit :/

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Just for a bit of perspective, Wii last December with a far worse lineup than it will have this year did 414K from Dec 1-28.

If that's the case, 1m for the Slim

If the Wii sold that much during that time period with the bad lineup, then this year would be a lot more. The Wii has a more compelling catalog of games this fall. With the rumored new Takio game in December and the one's we know about, I think 650k for Wii is achievable. As for the Slim I think 800K should be achievable. My numbers seem like it's Patchers numbers :lol

 

[Sage00]

So have we totally ruled out the possibility of GT5 being a Euro exclusive this Xmas?

Why would that happen?

 

[schuelma]

As for the Slim I think 800K should be achievable. My numbers seem like it's Patchers numbers :lol

That would be an average of 200K a week. That's a pretty tall task for any console.

 

[jeremy1456]

We should also not forget that on the DS, New Super Mario Bros. sold well over 5 million copies.

Not saying all that success is going to transfer from handheld to console, but anyone doubting demand for a 2D Mario better get their head checked.

 

[donny2112]

If that's the case, 1m for the Slim

The PS3's previous highest December is 300K, which was the launch December. The highest PSP December was 830K after the PSP Slim was released. Every DS December has been > 1 million. No PS3/360/Wii December has been 1 million or more. Maybe 600K for PS3 in December if FFXIII and GT5 really push hardware.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

That would be an average of 200K a week. That's a pretty tall task for any console.

That's true but with the price of the Slim, FF13, and GT5 it should be done. I sound optimistic about it, but after today's numbers that we got I think it can happen. I checked last year's December numbers and PS3 averaged around 45k a week, but only had WKS as the blockbuster game. This time around there is FF13 which should do wonders as well as GT5. If I remember correctly didn't the PS3 bundle with the demo and Movie sell around 80k. With the correct price tag and games that appeal to gamers I think it can happen. The usual holiday bump will help it as well. There might be more games coming out this fall for the PS3 so it might be a positive for it.

I might be overshooting things, but lets look at it this way. Many people (assuming) didn't buy the PS3 due to the price and not so many great games (which is hard to believe when it comes to games). Many are probably waiting for FF13 and many want to replace their old fat systems with the new ones. There is a great potential there and its up to Sony to do something about it.

Side Note: Nintendo has great potential to do something this Fall if they want to by slashing the price or making some bundles. It's all predictions and if it pans out then good job.


Edit: the 1m HW was a joke lol

 

[donny2112]

Edit: the 1m HW was a joke lol

The 800K?

PS2:
Dec-00 - 170K
Dec-01 - 1.1m
Dec-02 - 700K
Dec-03 - 800K
Dec-04 - 650K
Dec-05 - 300K

 

[spwolf]

Just for a bit of perspective, Wii last December with a far worse lineup than it will have this year did 414K from Dec 1-28.

Wii isnt looking that good this year...at all. Q1 sales dropped more than 50% WW.

Also, isnt 1st week of jan usually counted in Dec sales in japan? Its one with the most sales.



As to the PS2 sales... thats just crazy. I very much doubt PS3 can reach 800k, even 600k seems too much. I dont think things can turn that easily in the blink of an eye...

 

[schuelma]

Wii isnt looking that good this year...at all. Q1 sales dropped more than 50% WW.
.

I'm talking about this holiday season, in which Wii has a much stronger lineup.

 

[cakefoo]

http://garaph.info/index.php

What's going on with the site?

 

[cvxfreak]

We should also not forget that on the DS, New Super Mario Bros. sold well over 5 million copies.

Not saying all that success is going to transfer from handheld to console, but anyone doubting demand for a 2D Mario better get their head checked.

There's a minimum NSMB Wii can do, and it's 1 Million units.

Animal Crossing City Folk and Monster Hunter 3 should be proof of this.

 

[DefectiveReject]

I never lolled so much at a thread in all my time on GAF.

It takes a big price cut, a new hardware design and a relaunch to sell some decent numbers, and people are getting all excited about Sony's return.
I know Nintendo spout nothing about a hardware price cut, and they won't say it as it would effect sales even more so. But I'd hazard guess that a Wii price cut would have as much of an effect on Wii hardware sales as a redesign, price cut and relaunch of the PS3.

People are doubting NSMBWii

People are doubting WiiFit+, which if you already have Wiifit (22m+ people by the way) and want something else to play, you have to only pay a budget price to get the next instalment. People are still buying Wiifits now in their hundreds of thousands monthly. If only 25% of all Wiifit owners buy Wiifit+ you're looking at 5.5m people buying it. Which is more than FFXIII will likely sell.

 

[Chris1964]

There's a minimum NSMB Wii can do, and it's 1 Million units first two weeks.

That looks better. I see there's too much doubt about Wii Fit+. Wii Fit was the major hardware driver this year until Wii Sports Resort and Monster Hunter 3. Even if it sells only to existing users it will make a lot of them active players and potential software buyers again.
If this week was fun wait until next. DS and Pokemon will overshadow everything else and in the case PS3 slim sales have a big drop more meltdowns are expected. Anyone else wants to predict Pokemon first week / LTD? It's one of the biggest releases of the year. So far it's just me and Stumpokapow I think.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

That looks better. I see there's too much doubt about Wii Fit+. Wii Fit was the major hardware driver this year until Wii Sports Resort and Monster Hunter 3. Even if it sells only to existing users it will make a lot of them active players and potential software buyers again.
If this week was fun wait until next. DS and Pokemon will overshadow everything else and in the case PS3 slim sales have a big drop more meltdowns are expected. Anyone else wants to predict Pokemon first week / LTD? It's one of the biggest releases of the year. So far it's just me and Stumpokapow I think.

Pokemon?

910k - Heart Gold
888k - Soul Silver

There are a lot of pokefans who think the GSC gen was the pinnacle of the series. These former pokemaniacs will be out in force, even ones who skipped DPPt.

 

[Hero]

I will be surprised if the PS3 Slim can keep this up into the New Year.

 

[sphinx]

Wait a second..

New super Mario bros for Wii is a Wiiware multiplayer title, isn't it?

If so, then how will we know how much it sells?

 

[schuelma]

Wait a second..

New super Mario bros for Wii is a Wiiware multiplayer title, isn't it?

If so, then how will we know how much it sells?

What in the world are you talking about?

 

[sphinx]

What in the world are you talking about?

well, weren't people talking about how NSMBWii is multiplayer oriented?

And .. well, forgive my lack of info.. what is NSBM for Wii?... is a retail game with a full fledged Mario adventure? I though it was a Multiplayer only game of some sort.

 

[schuelma]

well, weren't people talking about how NSMBWii is multiplayer oriented?

And .. well, forgive my lack of info.. what is NSBM for Wii?... is a retail game with a full fledged Mario adventure? I though it was a Multiplayer only game of some sort.

Did you..miss E3?

Here is the initial thread:

Link

 

[crimsonheadGCN]

well, weren't people talking about how NSMBWii is multiplayer oriented?

And .. well, forgive my lack of info.. what is NSBM for Wii?... is a retail game with a full fledged Mario adventure? I though it was a Multiplayer only game of some sort.

It's a retail game that will have a single player and multiplayer component.

 

[slaughterking]

I'm surprised to see how modest the predictions for NSMB Wii are. I'll go out and say this will be the third biggest software release this year, while DQIX and Pokemon HG/SS battle for the top spot.

 

[the thoroughbred]

Does anyone know how big the single player mode is?

 

[Chris1964]

Of course it will be the 3rd best selling game of the year behind DQ and Pokemon. I said at least 1 million for the first two weeks not for the year. So far everything indicates it will come out November, so multiply this number with a 2-2,5 factor and you'll have the YTD.

 

[the thoroughbred]

I'm surprised to see how modest the predictions for NSMB Wii are. I'll go out and say this will be the third biggest software release this year, while DQIX and Pokemon HG/SS battle for the top spot.

If it's being released in December, it won't be. Mario games are not as front loaded as FF. The opening of NSMB was 800k. This will be around 600k, if your lucky. Whereas FF typically go on to sell 1.5-2 million in the first few days. And are of the charts with a few weeks.

 

[the thoroughbred]

There use to be a YTMND of Pokemon D/P launch, with "The Final Countdown" music playing in the background. Epic.
Someone should do another for this launch.

 

[Chris1964]

December and 600k opening week for NSMB Wii does not compute.

 

[slaughterking]

If it's being released in December, it won't be. Mario games are not as front loaded as FF. The opening of NSMB was 800k. This will be around 600k, if your lucky. Whereas FF typically go on to sell 1.5-2 million in the first few days. And are of the charts with a few weeks.

NSMB Wii has so many things going for it. It's the follow-up to a game that sold over 5 million units, many more people are aware of the NSMB name now than they were when the DS game released, it'll be released right before the holiday rush (instead of May) and you can bet that Nintendo will advertise the hell out of this game.
The only thing one could hold against the game is the fact it is released on Wii. Well, at least that's what we usually do with Wii releases, but in this case you can only see the game profit from the Wii audience.

It will most definitely not be as big as the DS version when all is said and done, but that is really not necessary to beat a new FF even in the short term.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

LTD maybe (and that's a big maybe), but not straight out of the gate.

No maybes about it, NSMB Wii's LTD will crush FF13 handidly, but FF13 will no doubt be far more front loaded.

 

[cvxfreak]

I expect Heart Gold and Soul Silver to debut at 1.3 Million units or so. It should be better than Platinum, but I'm not sure if it could outsell DP's first week.

 

[Chris1964]

I'll post my crazy prediction again about Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver.
First week: 1,5-2,0M
LTD: ~4,5M
DS for the week: ~100K
When we get first week numbers I'll do a comparison between Gold / Silver, Fire Red / Leaf Green and Heart Gold / Soul Silver similar to the DQ chart.

 

[Parl]

Very good opening.

What's with the obsession with year sales comparisons?

 

[the thoroughbred]

NSMB Wii has so many things going for it. It's the follow-up to a game that sold over 5 million units, many more people are aware of the NSMB name now than they were when the DS game released, it'll be released right before the holiday rush (instead of May) and you can bet that Nintendo will advertise the hell out of this game.
The only thing one could hold against the game is the fact it is released on Wii. Well, at least that's what we usually do with Wii releases, but in this case you can only see the game profit from the Wii audience.

It will most definitely not be as big as the DS version when all is said and done, but that is really not necessary to beat a new FF even in the short term.

I am not confident in my predictions. But the reason I low balled it slightly is because I see interest in home consoles declining in Japan.

 

[test_account]

I never lolled so much at a thread in all my time on GAF.

It takes a big price cut, a new hardware design and a relaunch to sell some decent numbers, and people are getting all excited about Sony's return.
I know Nintendo spout nothing about a hardware price cut, and they won't say it as it would effect sales even more so. But I'd hazard guess that a Wii price cut would have as much of an effect on Wii hardware sales as a redesign, price cut and relaunch of the PS3.

What is funny about people being excited about the PS3 sales and that they think positive about the PS3 sales in the upcoming times? I dont think that anyone here belives that Sony will return in the way that the PS3 will become the dominating console like the PS1 and the PS2 were and that the PS3 will outsell the Wii and the Xbox 360 for years to come, or am i wrong? I understood the "Sony's return" to be more about that the PS3 wont see a sub 10k hardware sales week is quite some time

People are doubting NSMBWii

People are doubting WiiFit+, which if you already have Wiifit (22m+ people by the way) and want something else to play, you have to only pay a budget price to get the next instalment. People are still buying Wiifits now in their hundreds of thousands monthly. If only 25% of all Wiifit owners buy Wiifit+ you're looking at 5.5m people buying it. Which is more than FFXIII will likely sell.

I havnt read all the recent post in this thread, but are people doubting the software sales of NSMBWii and Wii Fit+ or are they doubting that these 2 games will have a big impact on the Wii hardware sales in Japan?

About the NSMBWii and Wii Fit+ software sales, i think that both games will sell a lot of copies. When it comes to the hardware sales impact regarding NSMBWii and Wii Fit+, i think that NSMBWii can have a big impact on the Wii hardware sales, but i am a bit less sure about how WiiFit+ will affect the Wii hardware sales because i think that it might appeal mostly to the people who already own Wii Fit, but i might be wrong. Maybe Nintendo will advertice Wii Fit+ so that many people who doesnt have Wii Fit will buy Wii Fit+ instead I think that it shall be interesting to see how these games sells and how they affect the Wii hardware sales at least

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I will be surprised if the PS3 Slim can keep this up into the New Year.

I know. It's gonna be hard when turds like FF13 and MAYBE GT5 hit

 

[gkryhewy]

I know. It's gonna be hard when turds like FF13 and MAYBE GT5 hit

"into the new year", 150k/week?

 

[LiquidMetal14]

"into the new year", 150k/week?

Hell no lol. But if GT5 and then 13 hit......hard guess but not in the 20k range. I don't want to estimate but this could carry PS3 for a while. And then you have the softer releases like Vesperia and 3D Dot heroes. Things are looking better than they ever have. Not fantastic but optimistic.

 

[donny2112]

I don't want to estimate but this could carry PS3 for a while.

I hope you're referring more to GT5 than FFXIII. FF is about the most front-loaded million-selling series out there. If the game won't have legs, it can't make the system have legs.

Edit:
And looking back at GT4, it was the most front-loaded of the series to date, probably due to GT3, GT 2001, and GT4 already having come out on the system. With PS3 already having GT4HD, GT5 and GT5 Spec III, it could share similar sales trends.

% of 1st week in LTD

GT1 - 36% (2.2m) (10.5 months in Top 30)
GT2 - 51% (1.5m) (2.5 months in Top 30)
GT3 - 33% (1.4m) (6.5 months in Top 30)
GT4 - 27% (750K) (2.5 months in Top 30)
GT4 - 62% (1.1m) (2.5 months in Top 30)
GT5 - 45% (240K) (1 month in Top 30)

 

[apujanata]

My "PS3 outsells Wii for the rest of the year" prediction not so crazy now, eh? Eh? Who wants some?

I could still be wrong, obviously. I just feel like it's not quite so out there as it was last week.

Do you know that Nintendo historically enjoy more holiday H/W increase compared to Sony ?

PS2 Dec sales is around 3-5 times Sep sales.
Sep 2003 : 116K, 4 weeks
Dec 2003 : 571K, 4 weeks (5x Sep 03)

Sep 2002 : 244K, 5 weeks
Dec 2002 : 567K, 5 weeks (2.5x Sep 02)

While GC Dec sales is around 4 - 7 times Sep Sales.
Sep 2003 : 52K, 4 weeks
Dec 2003 : 341K, 4 weeks (7x Sep 03)

Sep 2002 : 70K, 5 weeks
Dec 2002 : 267K, 5 weeks (4x Sep 02)

PS3
Sep 2007 : 68K, 5 weeks
Dec 2007 : 249K, 5 weeks (almost 4x Sep 07)

Wii
Sep 2007 : 143K, 5 weeks
Dec 2007 : 745K, 5 weeks (6x Sep 07)

The exception to that general rules is in 2008, since Wii is doing very, very bad on Dec 08 (blame it on Animal Crossing Wii and Wii Music)

PS3
Sep 2008 : 32K, 4 weeks
Dec 2008 : 149K, 4 weeks (5x Sep 08)

Wii
Sep 2008 : 119K, 4 weeks
Dec 2008 : 414K, 4 weeks (almost 4x Sep 08)