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[donny2112]

150K PS3s?

So as far as initial sales, PS3 Slim + 10,000 Yen price drop = 2x MGS4 + LE Console ~= 2x launch @ 20,000 Yen higher price. Can anything be drawn from this? Is this existing PS3 owners upgrading, people buying back into the system, or brand new owners? The software % in Famitsu for PS3 this week will be interesting to watch.

FFXIII in December. PS3 >, <, or = of a bump compared to the Slim release + price drop?

 

[HK-47]

I hope you have all prepared for the inevitable travesty of illogic and unreason sure to come next MC thread. It'll be good for laughs though.

 

[schuelma]

I hope you have all prepared for the inevitable travesty of illogic and unreason sure to come this Wednesday. It'll be good for laughs though.

Won't it be practically identical to the current thread re: the 150K number?

 

[obonicus]

Won't it be practically identical to the current thread re: the 150K number?

But with a bunch of brand-new dilettante sales-agers.

 

[jeremy1456]

I hope you have all prepared for the inevitable travesty of illogic and unreason sure to come next MC thread. It'll be good for laughs though.

Meltdowns and the horde assembly?

There will be blood.

 

[HK-47]

Won't it be practically identical to the current thread re: the 150K number?

Indeed. When you have f_c coming of the shadows into a sales thread of all places, well its like an omen of disastrous things to come.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

It's going to be interesting to see what PS3 software made it in the charts this week due to the HW sales.

 

[Sage00]

So as far as initial sales, PS3 Slim + 10,000 Yen price drop = 2x MGS4 + LE Console ~= 2x launch @ 20,000 Yen higher price. Can anything be drawn from this? Is this existing PS3 owners upgrading, people buying back into the system, or brand new owners? The software % in Famitsu for PS3 this week will be interesting to watch.

FFXIII in December. PS3 >, <, or = of a bump compared to the Slim release + price drop?

Any re-entries in the chart (particularly The Best versions) as well as the ratio of Gundam Senki : Hardware sales will be interesting to see.

I can see this remaining PS3's highest week, but the month of December (GT5 through FF through New Years) will eclipse September I would think.

Edit: Earlier in the year I said there was no way Wii would outsell PS3 YTD for 2009. Anyone have the YTDs comparatively at this week? I don't want to call it at this point because sales-age has been unpredictable before, but I would say it's looking very likely this will remain true.

 

[markatisu]

Won't it be practically identical to the current thread re: the 150K number?

Probably worse because you will have a boatload of new people who have no idea what sells in Japan and what does not.

I think I might skip reading this months sales threads, the amount of stupid on GAF is going to be mindblowing.

 

[schuelma]

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Won't it be practically identical to the current thread re: the 150K number?

Yes, but with fewer insane card-carrying fanboys and more fanboys who think they know what they're talking about. Many of them will no doubt be wearing the Killzone/LBP/Uncharted warpaint (the FFXIII avatars have reduced in number somewhat of late. Who knows why?).

Indeed. When you have f_c coming of the shadows into a sales thread of all places, well its like an omen of disastrous things to come.

Wait... fortified_concept is crowing in that thread? I've got to see this!

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

To be fair to you, there was no precedent for this, no concurrent launch of a big game and the anecdotal evidence, flimsy as it may have been, pointed to a lack of enthusiasm. I don't think I ever made a prediction, but I would have been surprised at seeing the number go far above 80k.

150k is nothing short of amazing.

 

[V_Arnold]

Hopefully the PlayStation 3's sales will pick up and stay in the 30-50k range for the rest of the year, so HD consoles estabilish themselves even more in Japan.

150k is very strong, a lot more than I would have imagined (70-90k), Sony leaders should ease up a little now. : )

 

[markatisu]

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

In all honesty you could not have known what the bump would be, I mean we were entering near sub 1k numbers

I think what will be more interesting is the next 2-3 weeks as well as software %

If the software really does not move and the system begins to fall down then we can assume the massive sales came from the entire continent just waiting 1-2 months for the new one

 

[schuelma]

Hopefully the PlayStation 3's sales will pick up and stay in the 30-50k range for the rest of the year, so HD consoles estabilish themselves even more in Japan.

I don't think that is realistic, given that there isn't any huge software before the holiday season and given that a 30-50K range would put it ahead of the PSP and Wii and right behind the DS.

But who knows.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

I predicted 65k, same boat :lol

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

I don't think that is realistic, given that there isn't any huge software before the holiday season and given that a 30-50K range would put it ahead of the PSP and Wii and right behind the DS.

But who knows.

Well, historically, price drops haven't ever led to a sustained increase in sales over the long-term, manufacturers typically using them to prop up sales on the latter maturity and decline ends of the product life cycle. Then again, I'd be hard pressed to think of any other examples of consumer products where this exact combination of pricing, brand and complimentary products has applied*.

Perhaps the floodgates of pent-up demand will have been opened due to the price drop? Perhaps the PS3 will see a PSP-esque revival? I'm personally inclined to think otherwise, but that's just me.

* By that, I mean a situation where the high price has retarded the sales of a product with such brand strength and in-demand complimentary products (big games like GT5 and FFXIII).

 

[Scum]

I'm going to miss this thread for the next couple of weeks. All the top notch analysis, agreements and disagreement, as well as genuinely owing up to mistakes and over/under estimates is going to be overshadowed with nonsense soon.

Oh well. I'll stay for the lulz. :-(

 

[onken]

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

Yeah I said 70k lol. I always low-ball my predictions a bit because I like to be pleasantly surprised but this - wow is all I can say.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah I said 70k lol. I always low-ball my predictions a bit because I like to be pleasantly surprised but this - wow is all I can say.

In my defense I changed it to 75K at the end so I was only off by 75K. Yeah I'm pretty awesome.

 

[AranhaHunter]

In the interest of heading off embarrassment before it starts, I give you my brilliant analysis from the last week:

"Wonder if my 55K prediction is too low."

Gee, ya think, you friggin idiot!

I predicted 50k so your prediction was actually closer than mine.

 

[Xeke]

It's going to be interesting to see what PS3 software made it in the charts this week due to the HW sales.

Considering that its mostly people rebuying, I doubt you'll see much.

 

[schuelma]

Considering that its mostly people rebuying, I doubt you'll see much.

How could you possibly know this?

 

[Dalthien]

So as far as initial sales, PS3 Slim + 10,000 Yen price drop = 2x MGS4 + LE Console ~= 2x launch @ 20,000 Yen higher price. Can anything be drawn from this? Is this existing PS3 owners upgrading, people buying back into the system, or brand new owners?

All of the above.

I don't think that is realistic, given that there isn't any huge software before the holiday season and given that a 30-50K range would put it ahead of the PSP and Wii and right behind the DS.

But who knows.

This is the part worth watching. A sizable bump during a 'big price drop / new hardware revision' combo doesn't mean anything by itself. But if it can revitalize the platform long-term, then it will definitely be a big event.

I was expecting about 125k for the week. The Wii got a bump of ~75k with MH3 / black Wii. Giving the PS3 a similar bump, plus the ~25k lost in the past month due to people holding out for the Slim, plus the regular ~10k per week in sales - that would have given the PS3 110k this week. And that was only assuming that the '$100 price drop / new Slim model' combo would only have the same effect as the 'big game / new colour' combo of the Wii. But personally, I think the big price drop and new Slim model are worth more than a big game and new colour - so I bumped up the 110k to about 125k for my prediction. So with PS3 coming in at 150k, it definitely came in on the high end of my expectations, and it certainly had a very strong debut.

Now the fun begins. Now we get to see what happens in the weeks following the strong debut.

In an earlier thread, I was suggesting that 100k - 50k - 50k - 30k would be disappointing to me, because the PS3 would be back under 30k within a month. Now that we know the 1st week was 150k, the PS3 should definitely be able to hold out above 30k for a good couple months if the price cut has actually bolstered the system as a whole, and is not just a short-term spike.

If the PS3 can hold up above 30k per week until November, then with FFXIII and X-Mas just around the corner in December - the PS3 could be in a really nice position for the rest of the year.

We just have to see how sales hold up the next several weeks.

 

[schuelma]

If the PS3 can hold up above 30k per week until November, then with FFXIII and X-Mas just around the corner in December - the PS3 could be in a really nice position for the rest of the year.

We just have to see how sales hold up the next several weeks.

If that happens, which would represent a tripling of the PS3's baseline without any huge releases, then yes..Sony will be in a strong position indeed. Again, I find that extremely unlikely, but that's the great thing about sales age..eventually the numbers come out and we find out for ourselves!

 

[HK-47]

How could you possibly know this?

Because he's the Nintendo version of the crazy Sony fans in the Slim sales threads.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

You can tell some are mad at Sony dropping the Slim bomb on Japan. Sony got clowned a lot but man it's nice to see them drive it up the competitions ass for once!

 

[schuelma]

You can tell some are mad at Sony dropping the Slim bomb on Japan. Sony got clowned a lot but man it's nice to see them drive it up the competitions ass for once!

SONY RULZZZZZZ SLIM BOMB FOREVAAAA

 

[onken]

All of the above.

If the PS3 can hold up above 30k per week until November, then with FFXIII and New Year just around the corner in December - the PS3 could be in a really nice position for the rest of the year.

Fixed. But yeah I wonder if ToV/NGS2/Pro Evo/Tekken 6 will drive hardware at all.

 

[HK-47]

SONY RULZZZZZZ SLIM BOMB FOREVAAAA

Chad Warden redeemed!

 

[LiquidMetal14]

SONY RULZZZZZZ SLIM BOMB FOREVAAAA

Spread teh word boyeeee! :lol

 

[apujanata]

There were rumour of 200K PS3 Slim shipped to retailer for Japan launch. 150K already sold out, which mean 50K remained. IF Sony didn't have lots of PS3 Slim available for 2nd shipment (I think Sony prepared to the 200K to be consumend in one month, not 2 weeks), then it is possible we see "supply constrained" PS3 sales # in the next 1-3 weeks.

This is more probable because PS3 Slim are also successful in US (probably) & Europe (confirmed).

 

[Sage00]

There were rumour of 200K PS3 Slim shipped to retailer for Japan launch. 150K already sold out, which mean 50K remained. IF Sony didn't have lots of PS3 Slim available for 2nd shipment (I think Sony prepared to the 200K to be consumend in one month, not 2 weeks), then it is possible we see "supply constrained" PS3 sales # in the next 1-3 weeks.

This is more probable because PS3 Slim are also successful in US (probably) & Europe (confirmed).

They've been producing them since early in the year. I'm sure they have more than enough ready to resupply.

 

[obonicus]

Well, historically, price drops haven't ever led to a sustained increase in sales over the long-term

When you say historically, are you referring exclusively to Japan? Because otherwise, hasn't the 360's price-cut late last year led to increased sales YoY in the US? (Of course, things are made murky by the economy going into a tailspin.)

 

[vicissitudes]

There were rumour of 200K PS3 Slim shipped to retailer for Japan launch. 150K already sold out, which mean 50K remained. IF Sony didn't have lots of PS3 Slim available for 2nd shipment (I think Sony prepared to the 200K to be consumend in one month, not 2 weeks), then it is possible we see "supply constrained" PS3 sales # in the next 1-3 weeks.

This is more probable because PS3 Slim are also successful in US (probably) & Europe (confirmed).

:O

PS3 am d00med!

Spoiler

(again)

 

[kswiston]

I haven't been following the MC threads too closely these last few weeks (getting married in 5 days), but what does this 150k week do to the PS3 vs Gamecube LTD race? Is the PS3 still behind? If so, then by how much?

 

[Tannhauser]

After this week, I believe the PS3 would be at ~ 3.55m. 490,000 behind the Gamecube at 4.04m.

 

[kswiston]

After this week, I believe the PS3 would be at ~ 3.55m. 490,000 behind the Gamecube at 4.04m.

any idea what the LTD of the Gamecube was at after the same number of weeks that the PS3 has been out? If PS3 is less than 500k behind the GC, and if FFXIII (and maybe Gran Turismo 5) are out by the end of the year, we could possibly see the PS3 pass the final LTD of the Gamecube by years' end. It would require average weekly sales of around 30k for the rest of the year. I don't expect to see those numbers every week, but a FFXIII release bump, along with the normal December sales increase could help it get there.

 

[Road]

From Garaph & Famitsu, at week 148:

GC - 3,351,780
PS3 - 3,431,964

PS3 has finally overtaken the GC again. This time, probably never to fall behind again.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I would predict at least 5 games for PS3 will be in the top 30 this week.

 

[kswiston]

From Garaph & Famitsu, at week 148:

GC - 3,351,780
PS3 - 3,431,964

PS3 has finally overtaken the GC again. This time, probably never to fall behind again.

Thanks for the info!

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I would predict at least 5 games for PS3 will be in the top 30 this week.

One would hope as this is kind of like a launch. It def shatter the fat launch in Japan. Here's hoping for good SW sales too!

 

[Opiate]

My "PS3 outsells Wii for the rest of the year" prediction not so crazy now, eh? Eh? Who wants some?

I could still be wrong, obviously. I just feel like it's not quite so out there as it was last week.

 

[schuelma]

My "PS3 outsells Wii for the rest of the year" prediction not so crazy now, eh? Eh? Who wants some?

I could still be wrong, obviously. I just feel like it's not quite so out there as it was last week.

Well, considering PS3 sold about 80K more than anyone predicted, I'd say your odds definitely went up.

Will definitely be interesting.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

I wonder what Nintendo will do after these reports. Can't wait for TGS and the October conference (or the Kyoto thing they are being in this year).

Also Chad Wardin was funny as hell, he needs to come back.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

When you say historically, are you referring exclusively to Japan? Because otherwise, hasn't the 360's price-cut late last year led to increased sales YoY in the US? (Of course, things are made murky by the economy going into a tailspin.)

I say historically as in "this is usually true for most consumer electronics. Thing is, this time, things are a little different.

Consoles have traditionally used a price skimming strategy* but the upper range has never been quite this high on consoles and sticker shock has never been such an issue before. The PS3 has been using video player / TV / computer / stereo system level price skimming here, which has never been tried in this environment before. I think the time limit implied by the generational reset every five or so years has stopped companies launching their consoles this high in the past.

I ascribed the 360 increase more to software than to hardware price cuts (which should have only kept sales flat), though you may be right in that sticker shock above a certain price point may have been affecting the 360. If it were true for the 360, it would logically follow that it is true for the PS3.

I'm just pointing out that under a price skimming strategy, price cuts have usually been used by companies as a strategic move to boost flagging sales and maintain profits over the course of a product's life cycle. If you do it correctly, you shouldn't see increased sales over time, which would imply either that your price was too high for too long to begin with or that your price drop was too steep or too soon.

Which is why I'm interested in seeing where the PS3 will settle from now on. If they go back to or a few thousand above "normal", it means the PS3's problem has been one of value perception. If it shoots up to near Wii levels, it means the problem was always price. I think it's more the former, personally.

* Start with high price for the early adopter who will buy it at a high price, then drop over time as you decrease your manufacturing costs and sell to the rest of the segments of the population. The aim is to maintain sales over time.

 

[Road]

My "PS3 outsells Wii for the rest of the year" prediction not so crazy now, eh? Eh? Who wants some?

I could still be wrong, obviously. I just feel like it's not quite so out there as it was last week.

Wii Fit+ and NSBWii are the greatest question marks on your prediction -- if they can make the Wii hardware go up before the end of the year. But you seem to be doing well on the Sony part of the equation. Hehe

In a sorta random short term prediction for this month:

PS3: 150 + 50 + 40 + 30 = 270
Wii: 25 + 25 + 25 + 25 = 100

170k lead advantage for the PS3.

Then it starts to gets harder because Wii Fit+ comes into equation.

 

[The_lascar]

Wii Fit + are not in the equation, like Wii Sports Resort.

And PS3 have FFXIII.

 

[legend166]

Wii Fit+ won't be in the equation, but New Super Mario Bros Wii is. It's just as big a release as FFXIII, if not bigger.

 

[donny2112]

My "PS3 outsells Wii for the rest of the year" prediction not so crazy now, eh? Eh? Who wants some?

I'm still firmly on the "no chance in heck" side of that, but I was drastically wrong about the first week's sales, so who knows. :lol

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Wii Fit+ won't be in the equation, but New Super Mario Bros Wii is. It's just as big a release as FFXIII, if not bigger.

LTD maybe (and that's a big maybe), but not straight out of the gate.