• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: August 7-13

Shiggy said:
Europe: 5,000,000
Pre-DS Lite numbers. Now add those from the DS Lite (I think 140.000 for each week)

They had a press release about 2 wweeks ago saying it hit 5 million because of DSLite selling well, AND it had been selling 140,000 per week. So add about 3 more weeks of 140,000 and there you go. Problem with that is, we don't know if it kept up 140k a week, assuming it did this is what it would like:

Nintendo DS Europe LTD 5,420,000
Nintendo DS Total LTD 22,398,077
 

MrSardonic

The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
CoolTrick said:
He could also add a disclaimer for his BS numbers while he's at it.

please go make a thread about this rather than trying to derail the MC threads with your problems.
 

P90

Member
CoolTrick said:
He could also add a disclaimer for his BS numbers while he's at it.


Please stop.

All gaming numbers from all sources have some amount of interpolation in them.
 

donny2112

Member
P90 said:
All gaming numbers from all sources have some amount of interpolation in them.

Estimating off of raw data is not the same thing as estimating off of estimations. CoolTrick still needs to cool
:p
off, though.
 

P90

Member
donny2112 said:
Estimating off of raw data is not the same thing as estimating off of estimations. CoolTrick still needs to cool
:p
off, though.

But how accurate/complete is the raw data? Does Japan apply a "WalMart effect" to any of its tracking systems?
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
LanceStern said:
They had a press release about 2 wweeks ago saying it hit 5 million because of DSLite selling well, AND it had been selling 140,000 per week. So add about 3 more weeks of 140,000 and there you go. Problem with that is, we don't know if it kept up 140k a week, assuming it did this is what it would like:
Two weeks ago?
Ten days after the release of DS Lite, total sales of DS reached to 5m.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=109551

With that press release saying average DS Lite weekly sales in Europe was about 140k in the past weeks, its sales in Europe almost reached 6m now.

Edit: And you may know there are countries other than US, Japan and Europe such as Australia (which DS sold +250k there), Canada (about 10% of US that means +500k) and so on.
 

heidern

Junior Member
These sales are just ridiculous. Sales went up without any major releases and its dominating all the way down the charts with a lot of depth to the software library. Nintendo's increased production looks like it's filtering down and the system has now averaged over 202K the last 4 weeks. If that continues it'll hit 13.5M by December. With FF and Pokemon coming up, it may even beat that. 16-17M by year end looks likely which would possibly mean it overtakes the GBA LTD. That would also raise the possiblilty of it overtaking the ps2 LTD around April or May next year.

New Super Mario is racing along and should smash the 4 million barrier. Brain Training 2 and even Animal Crossing look good candidates to hit 4 million. I remember someone making a bet regarding Animal Crossing and FFXII, well it looks like it's blaze past Dragon Quest VIII now with ease. And of course the Pokebomb will blaze past that mark as well. That would equal what the Gameboy managed with the psx, NES and GBA managing one 4 million seller each.

Tamagotchi 2 is also doing really well. It did 66K compared with 31K for the 3rd week of the original. With a longer run to Christmas it's got an outside shot at joining the 2 million club.

Shame the psp started going down again this week.

poorpsp.jpg
 

starship

psycho_snake's and The Black Brad Pitt's B*TCH
heidern said:
These sales are just ridiculous. Sales went up without any major releases and its dominating all the way down the charts with a lot of depth to the software library. Nintendo's increased production looks like it's filtering down and the system has now averaged over 202K the last 4 weeks. If that continues it'll hit 13.5M by December. With FF and Pokemon coming up, it may even beat that. 16-17M by year end looks likely which would possibly mean it overtakes the GBA LTD. That would also raise the possiblilty of it overtaking the ps2 LTD around April or May next year.

New Super Mario is racing along and should smash the 4 million barrier. Brain Training 2 and even Animal Crossing look good candidates to hit 4 million. I remember someone making a bet regarding Animal Crossing and FFXII, well it looks like it's blaze past Dragon Quest VIII now with ease. And of course the Pokebomb will blaze past that mark as well. That would equal what the Gameboy managed with the psx, NES and GBA managing one 4 million seller each.

Tamagotchi 2 is also doing really well. It did 66K compared with 31K for the 3rd week of the original. With a longer run to Christmas it's got an outside shot at joining the 2 million club.

Shame the psp started going down again this week.

poorpsp.jpg
If Nintendo can ship enough units, I can see DS sales reach +17m by year end but this is a big IF and with production capacity of 2.2m monthly this is not going to happen. From August to the end of the year Nintendo can produce 11m (5 months and each month 2.2m units) DS Lites, so if they ship 7m of them to Japan there will be only 4m remained for all other territories from now on till the end of the year. I hope Nintendo ramp up its production capacity to at least 3m units monthly which with that case, DS LTD sales in Japan will easily surpass GBA LTD by the end of the year.
 
Did SM64DS surpass 1 mil? With NSMB doing so well too, I hope Nintendo decides to make an all new 3D Mario platformer for the DS. I enjoyed SM64DS but it just wasn't a new experience. (haven't played NSMB... the 2D Mario's were never my cup of tea... Yoshi's Island ftw)

DS deserves these sales. It's an awesome system, and being able to have 2 games in your system at once is just too cool. /obvious
 

cvxfreak

Member
Chris Michael said:
Did SM64DS surpass 1 mil? With NSMB doing so well too, I hope Nintendo decides to make an all new 3D Mario platformer for the DS. I enjoyed SM64DS but it just wasn't a new experience. (haven't played NSMB... the 2D Mario's were never my cup of tea... Yoshi's Island ftw)

DS deserves these sales. It's an awesome system, and being able to have 2 games in your system at once is just too cool. /obvious

It's above 900K and still sells around 1000 copies every week in Japan. It and Wario Ware should reach a million by the end of the year.
 

apujanata

Member
ioi said:
GBA
Japan: 16.7m
Americas: 38.5m
Other: 20.8m
Total: 76.0m

DS
Japan: 10.5m
Americas: 6.5m
Other: 6.5m
Total: 23.5m

Based on the your data :
- In Japan, DS will definitely pass GBA in the near future (most probably before June 07).
- In US, DS still have a very long way to go. Most probably not able to pass GBA in it's lifetime.
- In Europe, DS might be able to pass GBA, in another 2-3 years (not a sure thing, especially if there is a new handheld from Nintendo in 2008).
 

apujanata

Member
Ioi, I want to ask you about this :

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6156046.html?part=rss&tag=gs_news&subj=6156046

GS: Right. Now you mentioned the PSP hardware. Now obviously there have been rumors about a PSP hardware redesign. Will Sony have any news on that front anytime soon?

KH: No, right now we're comfortable with what we have. I mean, you probably have seen some of the numbers that were included in the Q1 earnings report from Sony Corporation and as far as the platforms go. Between PlayStation, PS2 and PSP, the PSP happens to be the fastest-growing product we've ever launched. I think we cleared 20 million units worldwide within the first what, about 18 months or so. And in the US, we've already cleared 5.2 million. Again, it's only been in the market a year and five months, so we're obviously very happy with the technology we've packed into the current PSP, and we don't have any plans to redesign the PSP at this point in time.

Why is Kaz Hirai talking about 20 million units worldwide within the first 18 months, while you talk about only 14.8 Million units worldwide up to August 06 ? Is it because Kaz was talking about shipped ? If yes, does that mean that there are about 5 Million units sitting in stores, world wide ? Isn't that figure (5 million) a little bit too high ?
 

ioi

Banned
apujanata said:
Ioi, I want to ask you about this :

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6156046.html?part=rss&tag=gs_news&subj=6156046



Why is Kaz Hirai talking about 20 million units worldwide within the first 18 months, while you talk about only 14.8 Million units worldwide up to August 06 ? Is it because Kaz was talking about shipped ? If yes, does that mean that there are about 5 Million units sitting in stores, world wide ? Isn't that figure (5 million) a little bit too high ?

It certainly seems to be the case and has always been that sony shipped numbers differ enormously from any kind of sell-through numbers.

I've had this debate before and it gets messy but basically sony shipped numbers bear no resemblance to sell-through numbers, unlike just about every other publisher. Don't ask me why, but this seems to be the case.

And for CVXfreak and others, Mario 64 DS is on around 980k at present, with Wario Ware just over 1m. It shouldn't take long for Mario to reack the 1m club as well.
 
I suspect "cleared" is just another way of saying shipped.

If they've sold 3.5 million or so in Japan, and 5.2 in ths US - taking his figures at face value, of course - then that's another 11-12 million sold... where, exactly? All in Europe? Given what little info we have on US and European sales, I'd say the 14 million sold figure is far more plausible.
 

apujanata

Member
ioi said:
It certainly seems to be the case and has always been that sony shipped numbers differ enormously from any kind of sell-through numbers.

I've had this debate before and it gets messy but basically sony shipped numbers bear no resemblance to sell-through numbers, unlike just about every other publisher. Don't ask me why, but this seems to be the case.

About the 5 Million units sitting in stores, world wide ? Is that figure (5 million) considered high or low ?

If it is high, what is your estimate of the units sitting in the stores, worldwide, for other platform, like DS+DSL, GC, XBOX & X360 (and even Sony's own PS2). I am asking you this, since you are the one who usually estimate sold through from publisher's shipped data, for both hardware and software.

You don't have to explain in detail how you get the data, the data itself is sufficient for me.
 

donny2112

Member
P90 said:
But how accurate/complete is the raw data?

The raw data is 100% accurate. However, it's not the entire country, so they estimate the rest (thus, the "estimating off of raw data" part of my statement). ioi estimates off of that (thus, the "estimating off of estimations" part of my statement). He has sound methods if his assumptions are correct. However, he's still estimating off of estimations.

As I've said numerous times before, I'm fine with ioi's data as long as you understand where it comes from. However, saying it's just as good as the tracking firms' data is bogus. Either he's right and his data is more accurate, or he's wrong and his data is less accurate. Either way, I do enjoy reading his explanations. :)
 

ethelred

Member
donny2112 said:
The raw data is 100% accurate. However, it's not the entire country, so they estimate the rest (thus, the "estimating off of raw data" part of my statement). ioi estimates off of that (thus, the "estimating off of estimations" part of my statement). He has sound methods if his assumptions are correct. However, he's still estimating off of estimations.

As I've said numerous times before, I'm fine with ioi's data as long as you understand where it comes from. However, saying it's just as good as the tracking firms' data is bogus. Either he's right and his data is more accurate, or he's wrong and his data is less accurate. Either way, I do enjoy reading his explanations. :)

That pretty much mirrors my view on the whole issue.
 

Dalthien

Member
apujanata said:
About the 5 Million units sitting in stores, world wide ? Is that figure (5 million) considered high or low ?
It's fairly high - but not terribly high for Sony. MS is sitting around 3 million X360s currently in the retail channel. Nintendo got burned with overproduction of the Gamecube, and have been very tight with their production and shipment numbers ever since. That's why those IGN rumours are so intriguing (the recent rumours about Nintendo upping calender year Wii shipments to 5.5 million units). That would put fiscal-year (through March) shipment numbers at 7.5-8 million units (if the rumours are true), and given Nintendo's reluctance to overship anything lately - that would mean that Nintendo would be extremely confident (tremendous feedback from retail) that the Wii was going to be very successful out of the gate. 7.5-8 million units in the first 5 months would be incredible numbers. Even the 6 million number that they have officially stated would be impressive.

Sony includes items sitting in their warehouses as shipped, so not all of those shipped items are in the retail channel.

From Sony's financial statement

*Production shipment units of hardware and software are counted upon shipment of the products from manufacturing bases. Sales of such products are recognized when the products are delivered to customers.

Inventory, as of June 30, 2006, was Y122.0 billion ($1,061 million), which represents a Y37.9 billion, or 45.1%, increase compared with the level as of June 30, 2005. This increase was primarily a result of the worldwide full-scale deployment of the PSP platform. Inventory, as of June 30, 2006, was a Y10.5 billion, or 9.4%, increase compared with the level as of March 31, 2006.

Sony has probably shipped more than 21 million PSPs to date, and sold less than 15 million. There are somewhere between 6-7 million unsold PSPs counted in Sony's shipped numbers. And as you can see, as of June, Sony had $1 billion in gaming inventory piled up, much of which is undoubtedly PSPs. So it is difficult to know how many PSPs are actually in the retail channel, and how many are still sitting in Sony warehouses. But if Sony has any plans at all for a price drop in the near future, they better hope than most of those 6-7 million units are still in their warehouses, because if they are already in the retail channel, then Sony has to refund that price drop back to the retailers for each unsold unit. $50 times 6-7 million units would be a huge cost to Sony, and you can pretty much rule out a price drop any time soon if all of those units are sitting in retail right now.

In any case, it is pretty clear that sales have been below Sony's expectations. Building up such a huge inventory of unsold product hurts. If they go for a price cut to start clearing up the glut of inventory, then they have to refund that price cut to retail for millions of units. If they hold off on the price cut, then they will have to start cutting back (or even temporarily shutting down) production. That is also expensive, because it costs a lot of money to have to shut down production, and then have to ramp production back up again at a later date once you have finally cleared up the inventory backlog.
 

ziran

Member
demand for ds is simply incredible!!!

nintendo must be thrilled and at the same time very concerned about how they're going to cope when big new games come out. like many have said, this week saw no notable releases for ds yet it still sold nearly 200k! :O

the most impressive thing is without nintendo and the ds, the japanese games industry would be in a really bad state. the version of gaming created on, and by, sony seems to be losing popularity.

i've been thinking about the whole third party situation on nintendo consoles and it has become a case of inadvertently awakening the sleeping giant.

the kind of major third party support needed to for big sales has been absent on nintendo platforms for so long most developers have lost touch with what it was that gave them such excellent sales on nes and snes. they've lost their ability to appeal to the audience that loves nintendo games.

the interesting thing is nintendo would've never manoeuvred themselves into such a strong independent position unless third parties had abandoned them. so really, nintendo has the lack of major third party support to thank for their newfound success.

edit - cooking navi's sales are really impressive! looks like nintendo has another big hit on their hands. it sounds good, i hope they release it outside japan, in fact i imagine they will since most of the popular touch generations games in japan have been popular worldwide.
 

ioi

Banned
donny2112 said:
The raw data is 100% accurate. However, it's not the entire country, so they estimate the rest (thus, the "estimating off of raw data" part of my statement). ioi estimates off of that (thus, the "estimating off of estimations" part of my statement). He has sound methods if his assumptions are correct. However, he's still estimating off of estimations.

As I've said numerous times before, I'm fine with ioi's data as long as you understand where it comes from. However, saying it's just as good as the tracking firms' data is bogus. Either he's right and his data is more accurate, or he's wrong and his data is less accurate. Either way, I do enjoy reading his explanations. :)

I'm not estimating off of estimations, I'm using shipped totals to determine LTDs and the averaged weekly sales to determine the weekly breakdowns that fit to these LTDs. There's a subtle but very important difference in that the LTD comes from a much more accurate source. I'd be interested to hear somebody other than CoolTrick / ALTTP (somebody who can actually construct a decent argument) comment on that.

ethelred said:
That pretty much mirrors my view on the whole issue.

Interesting that you say that whilst only referencing one sentence of Donny's post, which you took completely out of context and obviously misunderstood the point of.
 

ethelred

Member
ioi said:
Interesting that you say that whilst only referencing one sentence of Donny's post, which you took completely out of context and obviously misunderstood the point of.

The one line I referenced, though, was the summation of his position, and it was that summation that I agreed with. Nothing was taken out of context, and I understood his point quite clearly (and agreed with it).
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
another good thread partially ruined by people bitching over iois numbers. **** you guys seriously.
 

ioi

Banned
ethelred said:
The one line I referenced, though, was the summation of his position, and it was that summation that I agreed with. Nothing was taken out of context, and I understood his point quite clearly (and agreed with it).


It's not though. Donny said that you cannot say that the numbers on vgcharts are as accurate as those from Famitsu etc, they are either MORE OR LESS accurate but not of the SAME accuracy.

You have taken it out of context to say that they "are not as accurate", i.e. less accurate. In other words another dig at the site, and not a constructive post that looks at the situation from a fair and neutral point of view like Donny's did.

See the difference?
 

tanasten

glad to heard people isn't stupid anymore
ioi I'm sorry that you has to read continuously stupid comments about your numbers. Thanks good for the joob you're doing. A lot of people will keep coming back to your database. Thanks men for the effort.
 

Lapsed

Banned
Wow at the DS!

I want to thank all you guys who keep up with the total numbers and who make the graphs. You all are providing much needed context. Keep up the good work! We all appreciate it.

And I would love to hear more 'on the ground' reports in Japan. Do you guys see DSes everywhere or something? Do people talk about the DS? Has the DS entered pop culture there? Speak gentlemen! It is not everyday that a game system becomes a national phenomenon! :)
 
ioi said:
I'm using shipped totals to determine LTDs and the averaged weekly sales to determine the weekly breakdowns that fit to these LTDs. There's a subtle but very important difference in that the LTD comes from a much more accurate source.


Thats an interesting approach to tracking sales. What seems to be the problem people have with it?
 

medrew

Member
Scalemail Ted said:
Thats an interesting approach to tracking sales. What seems to be the problem people have with it?

a) LTD for most games is unavailable
b) Shipped /= sold
c) tracking systems like Media Create and Famitsu do not list every games' sale, so you get ioi making 'educated' guesses
d) Guesstionable data in relation to him inflating some numbers
e) A lack of transparency in his methods
f) an unwillingness for him to place a disclosure on his page(s) stating his methods and therefore possible inaccuracies
g) He pimps his website non-stop

It's a useful guide, but nothing more than that. I wouldn't use it as concrete evidence in anything, including informal agurements.
 

MrSardonic

The nerdiest nerd of all the nerds in nerdland
please can people start getting banned if they turn these weekly threads into arguments about ioi's numbers
 

ioi

Banned
medrew said:
a) LTD for most games is unavailable
b) Shipped /= sold
c) tracking systems like Media Create and Famitsu do not list every games' sale, so you get ioi making 'educated' guesses
d) Guesstionable data in relation to him inflating some numbers
e) A lack of transparency in his methods
f) an unwillingness for him to place a disclosure on his page(s) stating his methods and therefore possible inaccuracies
g) He pimps his website non-stop

It's a useful guide, but nothing more than that. I wouldn't use it as concrete evidence in anything, including informal agurements.

a) True, but who cares how much Daito Pachislot Simulator sold? The games I take time to adjust are the games we get LTD shipped numbers for are the games selling well. You forget though that I get and have a lot more data than you do.
b) No, but it is usually within 50k
c) How is that a reason why there is a problem with my numbers? Running out of points were we?
d) See c)
e) You're dumb, what am I doing now if not making the methods transparent
f) Being worked on, but it will only resemble what I say in these threads and that doesn't shut you up
g) I post when I have new data, usually data that is *breaking* and others don't have. If informing people of what they want to hear is pimping then we should shut down GAF, every news site on the internet and everything else.
 
MrSardonic said:
please can people start getting banned if they turn these weekly threads into arguments about ioi's numbers

I'm a nobody, but I second this.

I used to look forward to these threads. What Monorojo did to the weekly mediacreate topics pales to the trainwreck CoolTrick and Co. make them nowadays.
 

Rock_Man

Member
LanceStern said:
My own Japan YTDs and LTDs



TEVS to be out by end of the month if anyone wanted to know. Um.... any reason for our minor discrepancies in LTDs and YTDs Rock_Man?

Use copy/paste from the official site instead. Your DSL number is almost 80k too high.
 

Dalthien

Member
ioi said:
I'm not estimating off of estimations, I'm using shipped totals to determine LTDs and the averaged weekly sales to determine the weekly breakdowns that fit to these LTDs. There's a subtle but very important difference in that the LTD comes from a much more accurate source. I'd be interested to hear somebody other than CoolTrick / ALTTP (somebody who can actually construct a decent argument) comment on that.
For many titles, shipped numbers amount to a good indication of sales, but not in all cases. I'll reference Sony's definition of shipped again.

*Production shipment units of hardware and software are counted upon shipment of the products from manufacturing bases. Sales of such products are recognized when the products are delivered to customers.

Inventory, as of June 30, 2006, was Y122.0 billion ($1,061 million), which represents a Y37.9 billion, or 45.1%, increase compared with the level as of June 30, 2005. This increase was primarily a result of the worldwide full-scale deployment of the PSP platform. Inventory, as of June 30, 2006, was a Y10.5 billion, or 9.4%, increase compared with the level as of March 31, 2006.

Sony also uses this same 'production shipment' number for its software as well as hardware. What this means in effect, is that Sony's shipped numbers are nothing more than the number of units which were manufactured. It has no bearing on how many units actually made it to retail. This past quarter, Sony had over $1 billion worth of gaming inventory in warehouses, and some of that was software inventory. Those titles were all counted in Sony's shipped figures, even though it is possible (and likely) that some of those 'shipped' units will never actually make it onto a store shelf. Then you also have the issue (as Jonnyram and cvxfreak have pointed out) that the retail channel itself often maintains a certain number of units which also go unsold.

In any case, I am sure that Sony is not the only publisher to use this particular definition of 'shipped'. Some publishers only count shipped items when they are actually shipped off to a retailer - but others count shipments as units that were produced, whether or not they ever actually make it to retail. Believe me, it does happen where companies over-produce a particular title and then get stuck with extra copies that retail doesn't want. Especially around the holiday season when companies want to make sure that they don't lose sales due to being undershipped, or when sales are better than expected at first, so they go ahead with a 2nd or 3rd production run, only to find that demand has dropped off, and retail no longer wants the majority of the 2nd or 3rd production run. Those units will sit in publishers' warehouses indefinitely, or until it becomes clear that the publisher will never be able to sell these items, and they are either given away, or destroyed, so that the company can write it off as a loss on their income statement in order to reduce taxes.

I'm not sure if you take this into account with your numbers or not. But shipped is not always the best gauge to use for LTD.

Anyway, I'm not trying to attack your site. I'm just curious if you take this into account when using shipped numbers, or if you just treat all shipped numbers the same, regardless of which publisher they come from.
 

apujanata

Member
Lapsed said:
Wow at the DS!

I want to thank all you guys who keep up with the total numbers and who make the graphs. You all are providing much needed context. Keep up the good work! We all appreciate it.

And I would love to hear more 'on the ground' reports in Japan. Do you guys see DSes everywhere or something? Do people talk about the DS? Has the DS entered pop culture there? Speak gentlemen! It is not everyday that a game system becomes a national phenomenon! :)

You can go here :
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=4025804#post4025804

Originally Posted by Moor-Angol:
in 4 days i never saw a DSL on the shelves here in Japan... sold-out everywhere :(

i wonder how fast they weekly sell 150k... maybe in one day?

Originally Posted by Jonnyram:
According to the shops I've checked, it's less than one hour. They usually get stock on Saturday morning and are finished by midday.
 

donny2112

Member
ioi said:
I'm not estimating off of estimations, I'm using shipped totals to determine LTDs and the averaged weekly sales to determine the weekly breakdowns that fit to these LTDs.

When looking at it from sell-through, you take the numbers for the tracking sites and make adjustments (i.e. estimated adjustments) to make it fit the assumed sell-through based on the publisher's shipped vs. how they've tracked historically against those tracking sites. From my way of thinking, that's "estimations off of estimations," since the trackings sites' estimations fit into your equations somewhere. You do have a hard upper sell-through limit of what was actually shipped, though.
 

CoolTrick

Banned
What Monorojo did to the weekly mediacreate topics pales to the trainwreck CoolTrick and Co. make them nowadays.

What complete BS. Overexaggeration to the extreme much?

This has been going on, what, two or three MC threads so far?
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
CoolTrick said:
This has been going on, what, two or three MC threads so far?

Regardless of how long it's been going on, do you plan on stopping? If so, stop now. If not, what's the difference?
 
Top Bottom