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[Nirolak]

You forgot "Published Modern Warfare 2 in Japan".

That's another excellent one.

I also forgot "Developed a game with PopCap".

But ultimately, I think predicting Square Enix's actions based on their past is something that needs to be done very carefully now. A lot of the things they have historically done still hold true, but a lot of others have gone completely out the window, and since they change what they do so frequently now we can't even really predict with certainty on the basis of what we know right now.

It's really quite interesting honestly.

 

[Monty Mole]

You would think, but so far this generation, Square Enix's actions have been anything but predictable.

I mean so far this generation Square Enix has:

1.) Bought Eidos
2.) Made a line-up of Xbox 360 exclusives
3.) Released a Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy in the same fiscal year
4.) Released three of their biggest games in the span of two months
5.) Started publishing lots of RTS games like Supreme Commander and Order of War
6.) Declared that consoles will cease to exist in 10 years as they will be replaced by cloud computing
7.) Taken up a strategy of making browser games across a global network of studios as a core part of their strategy
8.) Made a multiplatform Final Fantasy title on launch

I'm sure there are more, but those are just off the top of my head.

They've had to get out of their comfort zone this generation. Their PS1/PS2-era days are long gone.

 

[Datschge]

First, we need to examine any motivation to produce a hardware revision - this generally encompasses both reducing the cost of production, and incurring greater sales, both producing a greater profit. In regards to the former, this isn't really relevant to Nintendo;

It should be noted that at least with their past systems (haven't looked into different Wiis yet) Nintendo always had internal hardware revisions where chips are being combined and the board layout is being simplified, without the outer shell being changed in any way. The SNES for example had at least four very different internal revisions, the first one filling out the shell pretty much completely while the last one left a lot of space for air in there. Significant redesigns of the exterior seem to be the exception for Nintendo consoles and not linked to hardware revisions anyway, after NES Jr and SNES Jr the only changes were colors and thematic adaptions (Pikachu N64).

Edit: hackmii's bushing on Wii hardware revisions

 

[jett]

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20091221-00000023-oric-ent

FFXIII 1,516,532
PS3 245,406

Edit: according to Famitsu/Enterbrain.

holy shiznit. Maybe 1.8 million wans't that crazy of a shipment after all.

 

[BishopLamont]

*snipped*

Nintendo can make a more compact Wii while at the same time reducing cost and making more profit. Just because they don't need to do it doesn't mean they won't (even thats debatable looking at the situation). We're talking about a company here, more profit never hurts. A cheaper slim Wii would be a bigger sell then just a cheaper Wii. Nintendo seems to love revisions on the handheld side, this is the first time in modern times when Nintendo has had a successful console that will survive til the very end of this generation. So we'll see a revision sooner or later, it's just a matter of time.

I never mentioned the Wii HD, that should tell you how much I believe in it. I've been wrong many times this gen though, so we'll see what happens.

 

[Clear]

Hmmm I wonder is that enough to put PS3 over Wii YTD in Japan?

 

[schuelma]

Hmmm I wonder is that enough to put PS3 over Wii YTD in Japan?

Nope

 

[Clear]

Gonna be super-close though:

Media create for 12/7-13 looked like this:

Wii - 135,898 [1,555,323]
PS3 - 75,086 [1,416,927]

 

[Grampasso]

Hmmm I wonder is that enough to put PS3 over Wii YTD in Japan?

I think it will barely outsell Wii for 14-20, on par or down again on 21-27. Last one (will it count as first 2010 or last 2009?) will be lower than Wii for sure, so I don't think it can end up.

 

[gerg]

It should be noted that at least with their past systems (haven't looked into different Wiis yet) Nintendo always had internal hardware revisions where chips are being combined and the board layout is being simplified, without the outer shell being changed in any way. The SNES for example had at least four very different internal revisions, the first one filling out the shell pretty much completely while the last one left a lot of space for air in there. Significant redesigns of the exterior seem to be the exception for Nintendo consoles and not linked to hardware revisions anyway, after NES Jr and SNES Jr the only changes were colors and thematic adaptions (Pikachu N64).

Fair enough. Nevertheless, I don't think a hardware revision that consumers, for the most part, won't ever notice was what BishopLamont had in mind. : )

Nintendo can make a more compact Wii while at the same time reducing cost and making more profit.

Of course they can. However, my point isn't that there's no money to be made from a hardware revision, but that this money can be made more easily without one.

A cheaper slim Wii would be a bigger sell then just a cheaper Wii.

Why?

It's not like the situation with the PS3, where the original machine was bulky and big. The Wii, as it stands now, is simple, small and unassuming. I don't think a consumer that would ever want to buy a Wii would suddenly stand up and take notice because it is a couple of inches smaller; Japanese homes aren't that strapped for space.

Nintendo seems to love revisions on the handheld side, this is the first time in modern times when Nintendo has had a successful console that will survive til the very end of this generation. So we'll see a revision sooner or later, it's just a matter of time.

You say this, and yet you seem to ignore that Nintendo doesn't love handheld revisions "just because", but that it loves them because they make sense financially.

If a revision does not make sense financially, Nintendo will not make it.

 

[cvxfreak]

I think whatever happens, the relative disappointment for this holiday will be the DS. I don't have groundbreaking expectations for Zelda myself, but I looked back through 2008's holiday HW sales and the DS did better than I remember.

It's a worthwhile trade off, I think, especially since I'm sure a lot of people are upgrading their older models to new ones such as the DSi LL.

 

[gkryhewy]

I think Nintendo must have a good amount of of unannounced software for 2010, some of it big. They must have learned their lesson from 2008 and 2009.... right? right?

 

[schuelma]

I think whatever happens, the relative disappointment for this holiday will be the DS. I don't have groundbreaking expectations for Zelda myself, but I looked back through 2008's holiday HW sales and the DS did better than I remember.

It's a worthwhile trade off, I think, especially since I'm sure a lot of people are upgrading their older models to new ones such as the DSi LL.

They really took this holiday season off. It could still be the top selling system for the month even without much in the way of software.

 

[Rolf NB]

I'm worried that it'll still be released on an unworthy, filthy home console instead of a glorious handheld, sure!

I know, I too wish my Wii would support remote play.

 

[BishopLamont]

Of course they can. However, my point isn't that there's no money to be made from a hardware revision, but that this money can be made more easily without one.

Why?

It's not like the situation with the PS3, where the original machine was bulky and big. The Wii, as it stands now, is simple, small and unassuming. I don't think a consumer that would ever want to buy a Wii would suddenly stand up and take notice because it is a couple of inches smaller; Japanese homes aren't that strapped for space.



You say this, and yet you seem to ignore that Nintendo doesn't love handheld revisions "just because", but that it loves them because they make sense financially.

If a revision does not make sense financially, Nintendo will not make it.

How does a slimmer Wii reducing the cost to build one not make sense financially? If size didn't matter then why are people buying PS3 slims? A couple of inches is a big deal. The DSi was created to renew interest in the DS, just as PSP revisions did before them, or do you think a couple thousand people going out to buy these "new" consoles on launch, affects nothing?

 

[onken]

Regarding Wii 2010, I'd say a new Wi Zelda is guaranteed, just when in the year is the question. Wouldn't be surprised to see it announced March/April and out in summer.

Also I think a "Wii slim" would do little to nothing in regards to sales.

 

[Parl]

holy shiznit. Maybe 1.8 million wans't that crazy of a shipment after all.

Why would shipping significantly less than any previous main Final Fantasy has sold lifetime be "that crazy" for such a front loaded game?

Regarding Wii 2010, I'd say a new Wi Zelda is guaranteed, just when in the year is the question. Wouldn't be surprised to see it announced March/April and out in summer.

I would be very surprised by this from how it's been talked about. They're hoping/expecting to show something in June. The timeline would indicate another home console Zelda around the corner, end of 2010 at the earliest, but that's also surprise me. I can't see summer.

 

[schuelma]

Regarding Wii 2010, I'd say a new Wi Zelda is guaranteed, just when in the year is the question. Wouldn't be surprised to see it announced March/April and out in summer.

I lean towards Zelda in 2010 as well, but I think it would be holiday release- they've basically said 5 different times now it will be properly unveiled at E3 2010 which could make it a late 2010 release. Personally I expect Galaxy 2 Springish, Metroid Fall, Zelda November.

 

[BishopLamont]

Why would shipping significantly less than any previous main Final Fantasy has sold lifetime be "that crazy" for such a front loaded game?

Results exceeded lowered expectations.

I lean towards Zelda in 2010 as well, but I think it would be holiday release- they've basically said 5 different times now it will be properly unveiled at E3 2010 which could make it a late 2010 release. Personally I expect Galaxy 2 Springish, Metroid Fall, Zelda November.

I'm betting the same.

 

[Bel Marduk]

I think Nintendo must have a good amount of of unannounced software for 2010, some of it big. They must have learned their lesson from 2008 and 2009.... right? right?

BELIEVE!

But I'd hope so. Next year I'm expecting (not necessarily released) MH3G, DQ remake or another spinoff, Inazuma Eleven Break, a few Marvelous games (Wada said he wouldn't give up on the Wii yet despite meh SW sales and they're due for some next year), and maybe Ninokuni Wii (I though the ROID game was the console game they were talking about but the ROID one is just some spinoff unless someone can correct me and tell me Level 5 said that was the other version. But ROID is some mobile thing.) So maybe it won't be so bad announcement wise...but release wise? Who knows.

I agree with schuelma - Galaxy 2 Springish, Metroid Fall, Zelda November.

Edit: On the Nintendo side, Pikmin 3 and maybe Mario Party will be announced.

 

[Nirolak]

I lean towards Zelda in 2010 as well, but I think it would be holiday release- they've basically said 5 different times now it will be properly unveiled at E3 2010 which could make it a late 2010 release. Personally I expect Galaxy 2 Springish, Metroid Fall, Zelda November.

I think this is Nintendo's internal plan, but I'd be rather surprised if at least one of these titles didn't get delayed out of their intended release window.

 

[Rolf NB]

wat

I don´t see a pulling force next year that would get the PS3 even close to the Wii´s hardware sales. There won´t be another price cut, and FF13 is out. The two remaining big hitters are GoW and GT5, but only GT5 may do a little bit for the Japanese audience.

Or im missing something that makes you that confident about your excitement. Please tell, if so

The same can be said about the Wii, if you subscribe to the idea that it wasn't just the season, but that NSMBWii contributed greatly to the high hardware sales in the last few weeks.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Why would shipping significantly less than any previous main Final Fantasy has sold lifetime be "that crazy" for such a front loaded game?

Its pretty gutsy as a first shipment for a game forecasted to sell worse than recent FF games (1.2 mill FW IIRC). I think PS3 more or less made it to the same install base that PS2 had when FFX launched, meaning that about 1.5 FW is to be expected. I think the real ballsy thing though is the shipment of 200k bundles...which will be pretty amazing if they sell through. I don't think its a stretch to say over half of them sold in FW.

 

[gerg]

How does a slimmer Wii reducing the cost to build one not make sense financially?

Because of the costs associated with producing the redesign. As Datschge has already pointed out, they can alter the internal components at will, so they needn't launch a new revision that may or may not be successful.

If size didn't matter then why are people buying PS3 slims?

A combination of software, price, and, yes, its form factor. But I think you would be expecting much if the revision from the Wii to a Wii Slim would be anything as impressive as that from the PS3 to the PS3 Slim.

A couple of inches is a big deal.

But why?

You're not carrying your Wii in your pocket (heh), and you're not fundamentally changing the aesthetics of the console. What possible evidence is there that people would be interested in the redesign?

The DSi was created to renew interest in the DS, just as PSP revisions did before them, or do you think a couple thousand people going out to buy these "new" consoles on launch, affects nothing?

If you're asking me if I think that a Wii Slim were to be as successful as the DSi or the PSP 3000, then no. I really think that consumers would be apathetic to the redesign.

 

[onken]

I lean towards Zelda in 2010 as well, but I think it would be holiday release- they've basically said 5 different times now it will be properly unveiled at E3 2010 which could make it a late 2010 release. Personally I expect Galaxy 2 Springish, Metroid Fall, Zelda November.

Makes sense.

 

[jett]

Why would shipping significantly less than any previous main Final Fantasy has sold lifetime be "that crazy" for such a front loaded game?

Because it's a PS3 game, because the install base is much lower than the PS1 and the PS2 at the time their respective first FF games launched, because of the current japanese gaming situation, I suppose?

...anyway




FFXIII might have the legs to propel it past 2 million, at least. That is pretty impressive

 

[Parl]

Its pretty gutsy as a first shipment for a game forecasted to sell worse than recent FF games (1.2 mill FW IIRC). I think PS3 more or less made it to the same install base that PS2 had when FFX launched, meaning that about 1.5 FW is to be expected. I think the real ballsy thing though is the shipment of 200k bundles...which will be pretty amazing if they sell through. I don't think its a stretch to say over half of them sold in FW.

Well FFX did 1.9 mil first week. FFXII did just over 1.8 mil IIRC.

200k bundles for a hugely popular game on a console that hasn't sold too great, with plenty of signs of fence sitters ready to be pulled, is simply not ballsy. I'm sure it'll be a game intended to be picked up by many people buying a PS3 on the week it launch and some weeks after. I'm not sure what would be so much more attractive about buying the console and game seperately than just getting the bundle.

 

[Bel Marduk]

What would a revision do to hold SW back? Unless it supports HD graphics or something (unlikely). I think games are just being held back but we'll see.

 

[schuelma]

To me the revision only makes sense if it includes some HD capability and capturing the market moving towards HD, as that seems to be what Nintendo is thinking about if their recent investor comments mean anything.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

A combination of software, price, and, yes, its form factor. But I think you would be expecting much if the revision from the Wii to a Wii Slim would be anything as impressive as that from the PS3 to the PS3 Slim.

Maybe if they can get some of that Time Lord technology and make the Wii actually add volume to your room, that will be attention-grabbing. Going from 3 DVD cases thick to 2? Not so much.

 

[BishopLamont]

Because of the costs associated with producing the redesign. As Datschge has already pointed out, they can alter the internal components at will, so they needn't launch a new revision that may or may not be successful.



A combination of software, price, and, yes, its form factor. But I think you would be expecting much if the revision from the Wii to a Wii Slim would be anything as impressive as that from the PS3 to the PS3 Slim.



But why?

You're not carrying your Wii in your pocket (heh), and you're not fundamentally changing the aesthetics of the console. What possible evidence is there that people would be interested in the redesign?

The costs associated with producing a redesign will be made back with the redesign itself. You're questioning the price to make something cost less? I don't know what to say here. The PS3 slim was simply smaller and price reduced, that was enough to create interest, why can't the same be for the Wii? If anything the slim looks even less appealing then the original.

If you're asking me if I think that a Wii Slim were to be as successful as the DSi or the PSP 3000, then no. I really think that consumers would be apathetic to the redesign.

but you haven't seen the redesign yet. :/

 

[gerg]

The costs associated with producing a redesign will be made back with the redesign itself. You're questioning the price to make something cost less? I don't know what to say here.

Nintendo can already make the Wii cost less by changing the internal components without changing the external look of the machine. The plastic costs tuppence and I doubt there's much pressure for Nintendo to save those few extra yen by using slightly less plastic. The savings seem insignificant.

The PS3 slim was simply smaller and price reduced, that was enough to create interest, why can't the same be for the Wii? If anything the slim looks even less appealing then the original.

Because the slim was much smaller and much cheaper. Again, how small are we expecting the Wii to become?

but you haven't seen the redesign yet. :/

But what are we realistically expecting here? I agree with JJS:

Maybe if they can get some of that Time Lord technology and make the Wii actually add volume to your room, that will be attention-grabbing. Going from 3 DVD cases thick to 2? Not so much.

I can't see much room for anything else, lest Nintendo starts removing some of the GameCube functionality.

 

[Parl]

Because it's a PS3 game, because the install base is much lower than the PS1 and the PS2 at the time their respective first FF games launched, because of the current japanese gaming situation, I suppose?

PS3 at just over 4 million, PS and PS2 at ~5 million. That's reasonable to expect a drop similar to what actually occured. Retailers ordering 1.8 million showed they were clearly going to push it hard. That's ignoring that it's the holidays of course, when it wasn't when FF7 or 10 was launched. The drop is reasonable and predictable and very good sales.

The current Japanese gaming situation is already factored into the fact PS3 is behind. That reasoning overlaps with your other point.

A shipment of 1.8 million in the holiday for a main FF games after so damn long isn't crazy at all.

FFXIII might have the legs to propel it past 2 million, at least. That is pretty impressive

Very good sales, and objectively impressive in that it sold a lot because not many games sell to these levels, and is shows how it successfully fills a market demand. Not impressive in the way that it's underperforming for the franchise, though probably not at the fault of the developer.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I really strongly feel that the Final Fantasy franchise is on a decline regardless of choice of platform, so I'd have bet on it selling worse than XII's first week in any case.

 

[Rolf NB]

We've discussed this before. There's not much you can do to the Wii to slim it down any further. The current dimensions of the Wii are determined by the size of the disc in width and depth and the Gamecube pad/memcard ports in height. It's physically impossible to to make it smaller without removing those Gamecube ports, even if the chips and PCBs were to become infinitely small. What you could do is make it wider, then move the GC ports higher (they'd collide with the disc if the unit were the same width as now) and shave off ~half an inch of height. Whoop-de-doo.

At "best", it could approach PS2 slim dimensions, but that's with all Gamecube legacy functionality removed. I don't think I'd want that. Even so, a slot-loader is necessarily thicker than a drive with a flap (ala PS2 slim). Maybe that would have to be axed as well.

edit:
At some point the PSU could be moved into the unit to use space that has been freed up by component shrinks.

 

[schuelma]

Very good sales, and objectively impressive in that it sold a lot because not many games sell to these levels, and is shows how it successfully fills a market demand. Not impressive in the way that it's underperforming for the franchise, though probably not at the fault of the developer.

I'm not sure it would do much better on any other platform. Maybe it would do better if they just kept it on the PS2 and maybe a bit better or on par if it was on the PSP. Might have done worse on the Wii.

 

[Orgen]

Why is everyone so sure about that? This game is completely different from the previous. PokePark became a sleeper hit, maybe Other M can do something similar. I don't expect huge numbers but also not disastrous.

I was talking about the PS3-Wii HW battle. I'm pretty sure that Other M will do better than MP3 (100k, maybe 150k) but it won't cause any HW bump... don't you think? I'm not even sure if SMG2 will boost Wii sales and I expect it to do between 800k and 1 million.

 

[BishopLamont]

Nintendo can already make the Wii cost less by changing the internal components without changing the external look of the machine. The plastic costs tuppence and I doubt there's much pressure for Nintendo to save those few extra yen by using slightly less plastic. The savings seem insignificant.



Because the slim was much smaller and much cheaper. Again, how small are we expecting the Wii to become?



But what are we realistically expecting here? I agree with JJS:



I can't see much room for anything else, lest Nintendo starts removing some of the GameCube functionality.

True. They removed GBA in the DS, wouldn't be surprised if they did the same for the Wii. I don't see Nintendo riding out this generation with the Wii the way it is, I think all the doom naysayers are getting to me.

 

[Y2Kev]

Well, I was blitzed.

 

[cvxfreak]

We've discussed this before. There's not much you can do to the Wii to slim it down any further. The current dimensions of the Wii are determined by the size of the disc in width and depth and the Gamecube pad/memcard ports in height. It's physically impossible to to make it smaller without removing those Gamecube ports, even if the chips and PCBs were to become infinitely small. What you could do is make it wider, then move the GC ports higher (they'd collide with the disc if the unit were the same width as now) and shave off ~half an inch of height. Whoop-de-doo.

At "best", it could approach PS2 slim dimensions, but that's with all Gamecube legacy functionality removed. I don't think I'd want that. Even so, a slot-loader is necessarily thicker than a drive with a flap (ala PS2 slim). Maybe that would have to be axed as well.

edit:
At some point the PSU could be moved into the unit to use space that has been freed up by component shrinks.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Nintendo removed the GameCube controller ports (and therefore the functionality) as part of a redesign. In fact, the Korean Wii doesn't even play GameCube games due to its own isolated region coding, but I'm wondering if the memory card ports were removed too.

It's not always a matter of space with Nintendo, but purpose as well.

 

[markatisu]

I can't see much room for anything else, lest Nintendo starts removing some of the GameCube functionality.

At this point I don't see why they need GC functionality, they have re-released some of their bigger titles as Wii discs. They could easily do that again to get other GC games like SSBM and Mario Sunshine if they really felt the market was there.

In the US at least the used Gamecube section at most Gamestops is 1 mobile shelf at best, cannot imagine that there is a massive desire for old GC games in JP

 

[Zen]

I can't see much room for anything else, lest Nintendo starts removing some of the GameCube functionality.

That would be really hard to do, in all honesty, and I'm not sure if there would be enough tangible cost benefits. It's not like the system has the Gecko sitting inside it, or something similar to how PS2 BC was handled.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

At this point I don't see why they need GC functionality, they have re-released some of their bigger titles as Wii discs. They could easily do that again to get other GC games like SSBM and Mario Sunshine if they really felt the market was there.

In the US at least the used Gamecube section at most Gamestops is 1 mobile shelf at best, cannot imagine that there is a massive desire for old GC games in JP

Two of the Wii's biggest games feature GCN controller support (Mario Kart Wii and SSBB) along with the entire library of VC games.

There's no way Nintendo could get rid of GCN controller support and even if they did, they'd shave of about half an inch at best, completely pointless!

There is no need for a slimline Wii and Nintendo know it. The PS3 was (and still is) a very big machine that takes up a lot of space. The Wii is already tiny!

 

[onken]

Nah they're not going to cut BC for the sake of a slightly smaller form-factor, just not worth it.

 

[cvxfreak]

Nintendo would hopefully upgrade the Wii firmware so GC games could use Wii peripherals (like the Classic Controller Pro) as well as the internal memory. I hear even modded Wii systems can do that.

Of course, it'll take more than a redesign to improve standard weekly Wii sales. An identity renewal is a must.

 

[Chris1964]

On other "off-topic" matters, I'm really curious about the Wii hardware and if NSMBWii went up or down this week.

Wii will be up (I expect it close to 200k)
NSMBW... Second week was huge, but so will be the third. If it has a drop it shouldn't big anything drastic.

I think whatever happens, the relative disappointment for this holiday will be the DS. I don't have groundbreaking expectations for Zelda myself, but I looked back through 2008's holiday HW sales and the DS did better than I remember.

The relative disappointment for this holiday will be PSP, followed by DS and then PS2, which is practically dead. It seems everyone competes with everyone after all and Wii and PS3 eat the handheld sales. DS will be number 1 system this December again but not with the numbers it did the previous years.

I was talking about the PS3-Wii HW battle. I'm pretty sure that Other M will do better than MP3 (100k, maybe 150k) but it won't cause any HW bump... don't you think? I'm not even sure if SMG2 will boost Wii sales and I expect it to do between 800k and 1 million.

The only games I see will move some hardware next year are Zelda and Pikmin (if any of them makes it). The problem with Wii aren't the titles that move hardware. The problem are the smaller titles that will fill the gaps between the big. If Nintendo had a continuous flow of releases the NSMBW bump we see today would't be that big.

 

[schuelma]

It seems everyone competes with everyone after all and Wii and PS3 eat the handheld sales. DS will be number 1 system this December again but not with the numbers it did the previous years.


.

I think a bigger factor than any Wii or PS3 success is that both handhelds have comparatively weak December releases. The DS's biggest sellers for December are going to be games launched months ago except for Zelda. PSP had a good 12/3 and that's it.

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Nintendo would hopefully upgrade the Wii firmware so GC games could use Wii peripherals (like the Classic Controller Pro) as well as the internal memory. I hear even modded Wii systems can do that.

Of course, it'll take more than a redesign to improve standard weekly Wii sales. An identity renewal is a must.

There is one guy working on "Project Freedom" to allow the Wii to play GC games without shutting out Wii peripherals, but he hasn't released anything lately about it. He's the fellow who created Preloader too, so it isn't some nobody.

So currently, no there is no way to avoid shutting down Wii mode when playing GC games. Yet.

 

[Chris1964]

I think a bigger factor than any Wii or PS3 success is that both handhelds have comparatively weak December releases. The DS's biggest sellers for December are going to be games launched months ago except for Zelda. PSP had a good 12/3 and that's it.

For PSP I agree. No Dissidia this year and PSP Go fiasco. DS library isn't so much different from previous year (in fact this year's ''immortal'' titles are stronger) and DSi LL is a success. The only explanation I can give is PS3 and Wii. Not that its sales are bad it just doesn't do what DS usually does.

 

[gerg]

The only games I see will move some hardware next year are Zelda and Pikmin (if any of them makes it). The problem with Wii aren't the titles that move hardware. The problem are the smaller titles that will fill the gaps between the big. If Nintendo had a continuous flow of releases the NSMBW bump we see today would't be that big.

No love for the Vitality Sensor? ; )