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[Jokeropia]

I didn't say he was!

I didn't say you said it.

 

[jman2050]

It may sound far fetched and i don't expect anyone to agree with this, but the bottom line is, Nintendo is the company that managed to think of a strategy that made them to be one of the biggest companies in the world and could have ridden their 2007 and 2008 momentum into this year, but they didn't, and this appears to be a missed opportunity and a scar on the Wii that may never heal. The scar of a Casual console.

sigh

 

[faridmon]

sigh

great :/

 

[gerg]

perhaps, but when your first one sells better on a less popular console and is consider as niche, you know there is a problem.

I'm really not sure I follow.

 

[Chris1964]

Final Fantasy first and second weeks (Famitsu):

[PS1] Final Fantasy VII (Square) - 2.034.879 / 2.034.879
[PS1] Final Fantasy VII (Square) - 329.740 / 2.364.619

[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 2.504.044 / 2.504.044
[PS1] Final Fantasy VIII (Square) - 270.993 / 2.775.037

[PS1] Final Fantasy IX (Square) - 1.954.421 / 1.954.421
[PS1] Final Fantasy IX (Square) - 328.404 / 2.282.826

[PS2] Final Fantasy X (Square) - 1.749.737 / 1.749.737
[PS2] Final Fantasy X (Square) - 233.429 / 1.983.166

[PS2] Final Fantasy X-2 (Square Enix) - 1.472.914 / 1.472.914
[PS2] Final Fantasy X-2 (Square Enix) - 181.798 / 1.654.712

[PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 1.840.397 / 1.840.397
[PS2] Final Fantasy XII (Square Enix) - 217.438 / 2.057.835

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.516.532 / 1.516.532

 

[Parl]

the bloody hell?

prediction of numbers are different than commenting on something noticeable. I know it's different, but it was ironic, and I like irony.

- games that have been announced a month or 2 month before will never sell good and it happened. I don't really have a major opinion on this. Haven't seen a major titles released that failed with this tactic, but wasn't Rhythm Tendoku announced very close to release?

- the numbers are good for a PS3 exclusive title. I am well aware of the franchise trembling downwards. Also i like how you said that i didn't know that while criticize my low prediction. The numbers are good for a PS3 title, the numbers are good for ANY system. It's a main FF game, first in 4 years, with a holiday boost, that's what I'd expect. I'm not playing down the number, but there's nothing to play up except the widely known fact that SE have a continually successful IP in Final Fantasy. I didn't say you didn't know it was a drop off, my comment on your low prediction was a light-hearted commentary on what I consider an absurdely low prediction and my perceived irony of predicting something to do with the vg market after that.

- mind you not a single game sold a million LTD on the platform and my prediction was extrapolated based on that trend. Except first party games of course. The trend is actually that very, very few third party games have been released on either on the consoles where their predecessors reached a million on PS2 for example. I think MGS was one, and it hasn't reached a million on PS3, though as MGS4 didn't drop by more than 50% on FW, I wouldn't expect something similar for FF13 too.

-

Spoiler

if by bias you mean as a fanboyism, i am a big Nintendo fan.

I just meant that the only thing I could think that would mean such a low prediction would be a bias, though not necessarily a fanboy bias, though that's easily the most common type. The bias turned out to be basing it nearly exclusively on no third party game reaching 1 million, so why the hell would FF beat MGS?

- and you are contradicting yourself there. '' I knew it was big and its amazing sales, but its not impressive anyway'' I didn't say the sales are amazing. Ignoring context entirely, it's amazing that a team of developers can make a game that sells 1.5 million in a week. Though in the context of it not being at all unprecidented for the series, I don't consider it impressive. The drop was at least in the ballpark I'd expect for its console jump and the time of year released. Similar to how NSMB on DS has very impressive sales, but that titles has heightened the bar on what would be impressive for the Wii version.

-also chill out man, its just what i think and i will be probably wrong, right Nintendo? If you're displeased with people commenting on what you think on a discussion forum, then maybe it's not a good idea to share your views.

Please don't take me the wrong way. I'm 100% chilled out, especially when posting on GAF.

 

[ReyBrujo]

...

Ugh, I guess I overestimated FFXIII, doesn't look like it will hit 2m without the extra releases.

 

[u_neek]

Ugh, I guess I overestimated FFXIII, doesn't look like it will hit 2m without the extra releases.

The situation's a bit different this time around though.. we'll see.

 

[faridmon]

Please don't take me the wrong way. I'm 100% chilled out, especially when posting on GAF.

well, you won since i am bad at argument. but i still think Nintendo could have done better which could make their Wii have a bigger momentum into 2010. Lets see how things pan out.

Spoiler

Baten Kaitos 3 should sell at least 200k, you hear that Nintendo. I know you are hiding it somewhere

I'm really not sure I follow.

Sin & Punishment on the N64 sold better than its sequel.

 

[dolemite]

The situation's a bit different this time around though.. we'll see.

The used copies will flood the market just as fast this time around, with or without the holiday.

 

[Chris1964]

Amazon.jp user reviews give FF XIII a 3.2/5.0. Nintendo fans must take their revenge for DQIX review scores from Sony fans then.

 

[faridmon]

Amazon.jp user reviews give FF XIII a 3.2/5.0. Nintendo fans must take their revenge for DQIX review scores from Sony fans then.

:lol :lol

we should have more Amazon reviews around here.

 

[d+pad]

Final Fantasy first and second weeks (Famitsu)...2

So, what you're saying is that we should expect FF XIII to experience a rather hefty drop off in its second week?

More interesting to me will be the PS3 hardware number.

 

[Chris1964]

So, what you're saying is that we should expect FF XIII to experience a rather hefty drop off in its second week?

More interesting to me will be the PS3 hardware number.

I don't think I said something. I posted second week sales for previous Final Fantasies. If you believe that FF XIII will have completely different second week sales from previous entries we'll find it out next week (hopefully).

 

[kswiston]

Amazon.jp user reviews give FF XIII a 3.2/5.0. Nintendo fans must take their revenge for DQIX review scores from Sony fans then.

Does it give you a breakdown of the scores like IMDB does? I wonder how much sandbagging is going on (people voting 5 or 1).

I think FFXIII will manage 200k+ next week. The holidays will boost second and third week sales. It will still struggle to 2M though.

Assuming that Media-Create numbers are similar, it looks like the PS3 will have a 45-60k lead over the Wii this week. Not enough to lead to a YTD victory, but I think the PS3 will finish 2009 within 100k of the Wii. Sony has managed to keep the momentum up on the PS3 so far. We'll see how well that continues into 2010.

Has the PS3 finally outsold the Gamecube's LTD, or are we going to have to wait a few more weeks?

 

[Chris1964]

Does it give you a breakdown of the scores like IMDB does? I wonder how much sandbagging is going on (people voting 5 or 1).

Has the PS3 finally outsold the Gamecube's LTD, or are we going to have to wait a few more weeks?

http://www.amazon.co.jp/product-rev...s_vg_1_cm_cr_acr_img?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=1

According to Media Create PS3 will outsell Gamecube this week with the ~250k sales it had.

 

[schuelma]

. Not enough to lead to a YTD victory, but I think the PS3 will finish 2009 within 100k of the Wii.

We're just quibbling at this point, but I would reasonably expect the Wii to make up what it lost next week.

 

[Stumpokapow]

So, uh, let's talk Spirit Tracks. I think most of us would agree it will perform below Phantom Hourglass, but who thinks it'll do better or not as good as FF13's second week?

 

[Chris1964]

So, uh, let's talk Spirit Tracks. I think most of us would agree it will perform below Phantom Hourglass, but who thinks it'll do better or not as good as FF13's second week?

Spirits Tracks has 5 days of sales for the week, Phantom Hourglass had 2. I believe it will be clearly above FFXIII next week.

 

[faridmon]

So, uh, let's talk Spirit Tracks. I think most of us would agree it will perform below Phantom Hourglass, but who thinks it'll do better or not as good as FF13's second week?

I am not sure, how is the reception of the game anyway. Japanese loved Phantom Hourglass and i can see this game selling 500k LTD but it depends how powerful is Nintendos advertisement.

 

[schuelma]

So, uh, let's talk Spirit Tracks. I think most of us would agree it will perform below Phantom Hourglass, but who thinks it'll do better or not as good as FF13's second week?

I think it will do better, but yeah I don't see it matching Phantom Hourglass.

 

[markatisu]

In what way is it pretty disappointing that a PS3 game sells about 1.5 million copies 1 week?

This is not directed at you specifically, I have said this before but in what way does selling 1.5m of any game in 1 week quality as dissapointing (rare circumstances aside)?

I would guess that it has something to do with hardware sales. The Wii is has a ~5 million installbase lead on the PS3 installbase. The Wii is looked at as successful in hardware sales while the PS3 was looked at as "lol sub 10k hardware weekly sales". Then seeing a PS3 game sell over 1.5 million copies in 1 week is probably a surprise to people, even if it is a main Final Fantasy game.

I have always found that logic flawed though, the Wii does have a massive lead over the PS3 in install base, so what though. MH as a big selling title was built on the back of the PSP. We all know that a large part of the reason MH3 was moved to Wii was development cost and ease of porting to the PSP where the franchise was built, the size of the userbase only made those 2 reasons more attractive to the potential of the title.

So, uh, let's talk Spirit Tracks. I think most of us would agree it will perform below Phantom Hourglass, but who thinks it'll do better or not as good as FF13's second week?

Is there much hype surrounding it (outside of it being a Zelda title)? It seems it could easily fall into a trap of being more of the same and just replacing the boat with a train.

 

[sphinx]

I am not sure, how is the reception of the game anyway. Japanese loved Phantom Hourglass and i can see this game selling 500k LTD but it depends how powerful is Nintendos advertisement.

This would be a major flop after the great success of PH in Japan, nintendo can't be aiming at such a pitiful LTD.

the game will have succeded if it gets past the million J-LTD, I hope it does because it is a good game.

 

[Road]

According to Media Create PS3 will outsell Gamecube this week with the ~250k sales it had.

Indeed. Probably by Famitsu too. The next goal, going by your spreadsheet, is the Famicom Disk System, with 4.44 million.

Then, the N64 with some 5.54 million. Wonder when and if the PS3 can get that far. The Nintendo x Sony battle sure is something. haha

 

[Xeke]

In what way is it pretty disappointing that a PS3 game sells about 1.5 million copies 1 week?



It is indeed the lowest debut for a main Final Fantasy game in 15 years as you say. I also found it interesting that FFXIII is the first main Final Fantasy game that isnt on a leading console (leading as in the most sold console in a console generation). I havnt thought about this before.



I would guess that it has something to do with hardware sales. The Wii is has a ~5 million installbase lead on the PS3 installbase. The Wii is looked at as successful in hardware sales while the PS3 was looked at as "lol sub 10k hardware weekly sales". Then seeing a PS3 game sell over 1.5 million copies in 1 week is probably a surprise to people, even if it is a main Final Fantasy game.

I dont know if everyone has accepted it, but i would guess that at least many people has accepted that PS3 sequels wont sell as well as previous games in a serie as you mention. If i remember correctly, i think that some people predicted that FFXIII would get a LTD on something around 1.5 million when it was all said and done, and so far, FFXIII has sold that much in 1 week.

I think that it is a while ago since i saw these predictions though, but i guess that some people didnt think that a PS3 game (even if it was a main Final Fantasy game) could sell abut 1.5 million copies in 1 week because of the low PS3 hardware sales and the lower PS3 installbase. I would guess that this might be why people are more surprised and/or impressed by the FFXIII software sales numbers compared to the MH3 software sales numbers

EDIT: I added some text.

This is why I feel like that Wii gets shafted in these threads. What was MH3 "supposed" to do? It's going to pretty much sell out its first shipment but people on GAF create their own goalposts for what should be considered a success and if it doesn't live up to those sometimes wild expectations then its a bomba.

Alternatively it seems PS3 games get a pass when they sell well, even if its less than their previous installments because people for some reason expect them to sell less and the goal post isn't as far.

Had FXIII been on the Wii this launch would probably have been construed to be a failure. We'd be seeing things like...

"Well the Wii has a large install base than the PS2 did at the launch of FFX and only managed 1.5M, bomba!"

Even though the PS3 has roughly the same install base if not more?


And why do people continue to discount first party sales for the Wii? It is by far the largest segment of sales. We're always comparing third party sales but why not ever first party sales? Why doesn't Sony get ripped on as much for their hideous first party sales as Nintendo does for third party sales?

Are third party sales a holy grail or something?

 

[kswiston]

We're just quibbling at this point, but I would reasonably expect the Wii to make up what it lost next week.

Well it depends I guess. Are we agreeing that next week, Week 52, is the last week of the year? If so, I think the PS3 has a decent shot at finishing within 100k of the Wii. Especially if the percentage increase for Wii sales this week isn't as large as it was in previous years. If we are counting the Week ending Jan 3rd as a "53rd" week of 2009, then the Wii will most definitely beat the PS3 by 100k+ YTD.

 

[schuelma]

Well it depends I guess. Are we agreeing that next week, Week 52, is the last week of the year? If so, I think the PS3 has a decent shot at finishing within 100k of the Wii. Especially if the percentage increase for Wii sales this week isn't as large as it was in previous years. If we are counting the Week ending Jan 3rd as a "53rd" week of 2009, then the Wii will most definitely beat the PS3 by 100k+ YTD.

Yeah I'm just counting next week. I think Wii will hit 180k-190k this week and remain pretty stable the next week. I think PS3 will fall pretty hard to 125-130K maybe, which would still be its 3rd highest week ever.

 

[faridmon]

This would be a major flop after the great success of PH in Japan, nintendo can't be aiming at such a pitiful LTD.

the game will have succeded if it gets past the million J-LTD, I hope it does because it is a good game.

well, PH came out in a period where the DS was selling zillion amount of hardware and the ads for that game was amazing. Honestly, i could see the game to have a weak start and weak legs as well.

but again, it depends on the hype level.

 

[Ninja_Hawk]

I have a random question regarding game sales to retailers and consumers and figured maybe some people here would be able to help me. If a game ships a million to retaliers, but only a quarter of that are sold to consumers, when it comes earnings report time is money made going to reflect the copies sold to consumers or retailers? I can understand sales to consumer what ultimately decides the success of the game and what future shipments if any are based on, but my question is basically does the publisher make the money from retailers regardless of the games sales to consumers or do the publishers have to cover the cost of the unsold copies or what?

 

[ccbfan]

This is why I feel like that Wii gets shafted in these threads. What was MH3 "supposed" to do? It's going to pretty much sell out its first shipment but people on GAF create their own goalposts for what should be considered a success and if it doesn't live up to those sometimes wild expectations then its a bomba.

Alternatively it seems PS3 games get a pass when they sell well, even if its less than their previous installments because people for some reason expect them to sell less and the goal post isn't as far.

Had FXIII been on the Wii this launch would probably have been construed to be a failure. We'd be seeing things like...

"Well the Wii has a large install base than the PS2 did at the launch of FFX and only managed 1.5M, bomba!"

Even though the PS3 has roughly the same install base if not more?


And why do people continue to discount first party sales for the Wii? It is by far the largest segment of sales. We're always comparing third party sales but why not ever first party sales? Why doesn't Sony get ripped on as much for their hideous first party sales as Nintendo does for third party sales?

Are third party sales a holy grail or something?

Hey if FF13 fails to sell its first shipment and then hits bomba bins shortly after release like MH3 then I'll call it a disappointment too. (Which it very well could still)

Selling out first shipment is not considered wild expectations. Not being in the bomba bin after the first week is not considered wild expectations.

Also people like to talk about 3rd party sales is because first party sales does not do much in improving support. Say so and so has great 1st party sales. You know whats the outcome? Nothing cause so and so is gonna get first party games no matter what since the company that owns the console need to make games for it whether it gets great sales or not. Unless they want to drop the system completely.

3rd party has a choice and 3rd party seem to be more concern with other 3rd party sales than 1st party sales.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

I'm late, but wow at those FFXIII and PS3 numbers...

A few months ago a few people (me included) would have laughed if someone were predicting those 1st week sales

 

[Stumpokapow]

This is why I feel like that Wii gets shafted in these threads. What was MH3 "supposed" to do? It's going to pretty much sell out its first shipment but people on GAF create their own goalposts for what should be considered a success and if it doesn't live up to those sometimes wild expectations then its a bomba.

To be fair, MH3 is in the bomba bins right now, and it was on that retailer "top 5 games that failed to live up to our expectations this year" list.

Had FXIII been on the Wii this launch would probably have been construed to be a failure. We'd be seeing things like...

"Well the Wii has a large install base than the PS2 did at the launch of FFX and only managed 1.5M, bomba!"

I don't think anyone would be making that claim.

Why doesn't Sony get ripped on as much for their hideous first party sales as Nintendo does for third party sales?

Poor third party sales presumably create a cycle of feedback that discourages third party development, whereas poor first party sales evidently don't impact the number of third party development projects? *shrugs*

 

[Culex]

The problem with Monster Hunter 3, is that there weren't enough system bundles shipped, which is what people really wanted. Row upon rows of standalone software was piling up. Major oversight on Capcom's part.

 

[jeremy1456]

I don't think anyone would be making that claim.

This is Neogaf dude, of course the claim would be made.

 

[ccbfan]

The problem with Monster Hunter 3, is that there weren't enough system bundles shipped, which is what people really wanted. Row upon rows of standalone software was piling up. Major oversight on Capcom's part.

That excuse can only go so far when

MH3 standalone + CC Pro standalone together is less than half price of MH3/CC Pro bundle.

We're not talking about a discount by 1000-2000 yen here. We're talking about the game freakin only costing 1000-2000 yen here.

 

[Brazil]

I don't think anyone would be making that claim.

Actually, I'm sure many would.

 

[Culex]

That excuse can only go so far when

MH3 standalone + CC Pro standalone together is less than half price of MH3/CC Pro bundle.

We're not talking about a discount by 1000-2000 yen here. We're talking about the game freakin only costing 1000-2000 yen here.

I was unaware that the black Wii/CC combo was being sold separately from MH3.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Actually, I'm sure many would.

Amuse me.

The posters in the MC thread are mostly identical week on week. People who read one often read the next. I wouldn't be able to tell you conclusively, but I'd guess that >75% of the posters and certainly >75% of the posts in this thread are regulars.

Who, posting in this thread, would have claimed that 1.5 million would have been a severe failure if it was on the Wii?

 

[markatisu]

That excuse can only go so far when

MH3 standalone + CC Pro standalone together is less than half price of MH3/CC Pro bundle.

We're not talking about a discount by 1000-2000 yen here. We're talking about the game freakin only costing 1000-2000 yen here.

But yet the black bundles continued to sell out and it was proven that Capcom underestimated the shipment allocations for both MHG and MH3

I don't think it would have radically changed much but it did have an impact both times when looking at the total shipment sold.

 

[Brazil]

Amuse me.

The posters in the MC thread are mostly identical week on week. People who read one often read the next. I wouldn't be able to tell you conclusively, but I'd guess that >75% of the posters and certainly >75% of the posts in this thread are regulars.

Who, posting in this thread, would have claimed that 1.5 million would have been a severe failure if it was on the Wii?

I can't point fingers. But do you really doubt that fanboys raging against a mainline Final Fantasy game on the Wii wouldn't enter this thread to troll?

That's what I meant. I didn't know you were talking about regulars.

But the claim would be made.

 

[Rolf NB]

I can't point fingers. But do you really doubt that fanboys raging against a mainline Final Fantasy game on the Wii wouldn't enter this thread to troll?

Exactly like it happened with DQ IX, I suppose.

 

[schuelma]

That excuse can only go so far when

MH3 standalone + CC Pro standalone together is less than half price of MH3/CC Pro bundle.

We're not talking about a discount by 1000-2000 yen here. We're talking about the game freakin only costing 1000-2000 yen here.

I am so goddamned sick of talking about Monster Hunter 3 and how it is a such a disappointment. Every frigging week.

 

[Nirolak]

I am so goddamned sick of talking about Monster Hunter 3 and how it is a such a disappointment. Every frigging week.

To be fair, last month we had a 17 page thread on whether the N64 or PS1 was better.

GAF can dwell on things for quite a long time.

 

[[Nintex]]

To be fair, last month we had a 17 page thread on whether the N64 or PS1 was better.

GAF can dwell on things for quite a long time.

Back in 1998
PC>>>N64>PS1

 

[Grampasso]

I did always wonder how to pronounce ioi.

"lol"

 

[Stumpokapow]

I can't point fingers. But do you really doubt that fanboys raging against a mainline Final Fantasy game on the Wii wouldn't enter this thread to troll?

That's what I meant. I didn't know you were talking about regulars.

But the claim would be made.

I was talking about regulars because Xeke was complaining about some kind of omg wah wah institutional bias in these threads. If his complaints was that we get one post drop-ins who troll once in a while, then sure, but that's a pretty stupid complaint because this could be a forum about knitting and you'd have one-off "fuck u son crocheting pwns kittening!!!! hahahaha u c my pun? fierce" posters. The only thing worth complaining about is if, as an ongoing concern, discussion here is hostile to the facts, which I don't think it is.

Even people with pretty entrenched positions tend to moderate over time here simply because there'll always be bad news and good news for everyone around the corner and the more you read, the more you get into numbers per se as opposed to numbers for the sake of the games you're interested in.

While this thread's opinion on the Wii('s sales) has gone back and forth and I would say has largely been pretty sour since sales slowed down bigtime and software dried up, I don't think for the most part the people who make up the vast majority of posts are stupid enough to think that 1.5 million is a bad number for FF13.

I don't see any viable reading of the 1.5 million number beyond the following: 1) Final Fantasy, as a series, is in a slow decline. 2) Final Fantasy, as a series, is huge. 3) Final Fantasy 13 performed about as well as anyone could have expected, but within the 1-1.8 or so first week "extended range" that almost everyone would have predicted. 4) The PS3 did not notably hold back FF13 compared to any other console choice (here meaning PSP, 360, Wii--the DS is not a viable console choice based on the stated emphases of the series and I think pretty much everyone knows this). 5) The bundle was clearly a good idea, not that they're ever not.

 

[ccbfan]

But yet the black bundles continued to sell out and it was proven that Capcom underestimated the shipment allocations for both MHG and MH3

I don't think it would have radically changed much but it did have an impact both times when looking at the total shipment sold.

Hey I don't doubt preferring a black CC pro at a discount along with MH3. I bought the double motion plus pack wii sports pack for 60 bucks (10 bucks discount on motion plus). But if Wii Sport R single pack was 10 bucks I would have bought that instead.

MH3 standalone price collapse have gone way past the reasonable mark to use that as an excuse anymore. All the people that didn't buy MH3 when there wasn't enough CC bundles left at launch probably got theirs already.

 

[BattleMonkey]

What was MH3 "supposed" to do? It's going to pretty much sell out its first shipment but people on GAF create their own goalposts for what should be considered a success and if it doesn't live up to those sometimes wild expectations then its a bomba.

MH3 has not reached it's initial shipments numbers and it's gonna be post 6 months of release while FFXIII nearly met it's shipment number in a single week?

No doubt MH3 had a fraction of the budget of FFXIII so I doubt capcom is feeling bad about how "poor" it sold. They sold a million copies to retailers, they should be happy.

FFXIII will also make a ton more to come with the western release which Monster Hunter franchise just can not depend on. And now with it being also on 360 in the west, the game is likely to do extremely well and I think easily outdo past FFXIII western releases since it's gone multiplat. MH sales outside of Japan are pretty dismal but I'm sure that Capcom made good money on the Japanese release alone already.

It's kinda hard to be comparing the two franchises since they are pretty darn different. Different goals, budgets, and global saturation.

 

[Bel Marduk]

MH3 has not reached it's initial shipments numbers and it's gonna be post 6 months of release while FFXIII nearly met it's shipment number in a single week?

No doubt MH3 had a fraction of the budget of FFXIII so I doubt capcom is feeling bad about how "poor" it sold. They sold a million copies to retailers, they should be happy.

FFXIII will also make a ton more to come with the western release which Monster Hunter franchise just can not depend on. And now with it being also on 360 in the west, the game is likely to do extremely well and I think easily outdo past FFXIII western releases since it's gone multiplat. MH sales outside of Japan are pretty dismal but I'm sure that Capcom made good money on the Japanese release alone already.

It's kinda hard to be comparing the two franchises since they are pretty darn different. Different goals, budgets, and global saturation.

That's why Nintendo is going to market the game outside of Japan. Same for DQ.

 

[BattleMonkey]

That's why Nintendo is going to market the game outside of Japan. Same for DQ.

And how successful that will be is left to be seen, or exactly what level of commitment we will see from Nintendo.