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http://dualshockers.com/2009/12/final-fantasy-xiii-sells-two-million-copies-on-day-one

Poor guys using shipment numbers. Wouldn't last a day in a Media Create thread on GAF :lol

They fixed the article now from "units sold" to "units shipped" But for some reason it still says 2 million copies. I thought that the first shipment was on 1.8 million (including the rumored (or was it confirmed?) 200k PS3 FFXIII hardware bundles)?

Hope they aren't Kingdom Hearts fans.

Zing!

Isnt Kingdom Hearts coming as a download-able version?

 

[The_lascar]

(http://www.nintendojofr.com/redacti...p_Media_Create_Japon_du_7_au_13_décembre.html)

Also, I focused on Final Fantasy. In french, but everybody can understand the charts.
http://www.nintendojofr.com/redaction/editoriaux/atiF-Rétrospective_Charts_:_Final_Fantasy.html

 

[schuelma]

You guys really need to sort out the rules for your predictions.
Making predictions after you know shipment numbers is missing the point.
Making them after the game goes on sale is just a joke.
You should have a cut-off point a week before release at the very least. Once you start getting shipment rumours, the predictions turn into informed estimates.

To clarify, my "predictions' in question was just for my amusement after hearing the new shipment amount, not for any other purpose.

 

[Bel Marduk]

They fixed the article now from "units sold" to "units shipped" But for some reason it still says 2 million copies. I thought that the first shipment was on 1.8 million (including the rumored (or was it confirmed?) 200k PS3 FFXIII hardware bundles)?



Isnt Kingdom Hearts coming as a download-able version?

As of now, no. Considering the game comes out in a couple weeks I don't think it will have one...

 

[Jonnyram]

The cutoff is the Famitsu leak Wednesday morning. Any predictions done after the 1.6m + 200K bundles reports wouldn't count.

That's still only 10hrs before a game officially goes on sale though. I think it's too close, personally.
And sorry, I don't mean to rant - it's just funny to see so little deviation based around that bs rumour of 1 mil + 300k shipment that came out at the start of the week. The predictions should have been closed before that even came out, ideally. For big games, you tend to get all sorts of rumours during the launch week.

 

[onken]

They fixed the article now from "units sold" to "units shipped" But for some reason it still says 2 million copies. I thought that the first shipment was on 1.8 million (including the rumored (or was it confirmed?) 200k PS3 FFXIII hardware bundles)?

The title of one Famitsu article was "aiming for 2m", that's probably where the number comes from.

 

[Stumpokapow]

... that's... new.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

The title of one Famitsu article was "aiming for 2m", that's probably where the number comes from.

Wada said he's very hopeful FFXIII can sell 2 mil based on the buzz surrounding the launch (and i assume preorders too)

 

[Spiegel]

MC numbers:

►[Wii] Tales of Graces
143k sold/~210k shipped (68,18% sell-through)

►[Wii] Tales of Symphonia: Dawn of the New World
137k sold/~195k shipped (70,82% sell-through)

►[360] Modern Warfare 2
43k sold/~62k shipped (69,92% sell-through)

►[PS3] Modern Warfare 2
93k sold/~135k shipped (68,69% sell-through)

 

[schuelma]

MC numbers:

►[Wii] Tales of Graces
143k sold/~210k shipped (68,18% sell-through)

So basically it will eventually sputter to ToS:KoR numbers. Great success!

 

[dolemite]

Solid sold through for Tales, not sure why GAF is so cruel to the title.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

:lol

 

[Bel Marduk]

So basically it will eventually sputter to ToS:KoR numbers. Great success!

They'll end up shipping a bit more like they did for DotNW. So it'll end up a bit higher.

Solid sell through nonetheless, but of course it's still a "bomba" :lol

Edit: When do we get first day numbers? What time EST?

 

[tehbear]

Solid sold through for Tales, not sure why GAF is so cruel to the title.

Because only spectacular numbers (positive/negative) can make statements about the viability of 3rd parties on the Wii. Anything else just leads to uncomfortable speculation and guessing games.

The lack of certainty is certainly no fun, so some exaggeration is warranted to create amusement where there is none.

 

[schuelma]

They'll end up shipping a bit more like they did for DotNW. So it'll end up a bit higher.

Solid sell through nonetheless, but of course it's still a "bomba" :lol

Solid sell through doesn't necessarily mean much of anything. Wii's marvelous titles had "solid sell through" first weeks and it got them some awesome <50K LTD's.

Edit: When do we get first day numbers? What time EST?

About 2:00 A.M EST, unless they leak even earlier because of the nature of the release.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Solid sell through doesn't necessarily mean much of anything. Wii's marvelous titles had "solid sell through" first weeks and it got them some awesome <50K LTD's.



About 2:00 A.M EST, unless they leak even earlier because of the nature of the release.

But when it's over a 200k shipment you have to wonder!

I hope they end up leaking at around 12.

 

[markatisu]

So basically it will eventually sputter to ToS:KoR numbers. Great success!

So basically the same people who bought KoR will buy Graces, well I guess at least knowing your audience is a positive :lol

It will be interesting to see next weeks number to see how much it drops off, the holidays may be enough to push it to almost sell out the first shipment but not get a 2nd shipment like most people were anticipating

 

[The_lascar]

Solid sold through for Tales, not sure why GAF is so cruel to the title.

 

[Bel Marduk]

So basically the same people who bought KoR will buy Graces, well I guess at least knowing your audience is a positive :lol

It will be interesting to see next weeks number to see how much it drops off, the holidays may be enough to push it to almost sell out the first shipment but not get a 2nd shipment like most people were anticipating

I don't know how often it is that games don't get second shipments. Especially when we're talking about Namco here :lol

@lascar

I don't think comparing ToG (and basically all the others this gen) to Tales in previous gens is such a good idea since the series has declined drastically since then (that's Namco's own fault for making too many). Better to just compare it to games this gen.

 

[Bebpo]

I don't know how often it is that games don't get second shipments. Especially when we're talking about Namco here :lol

@lascar

I don't think comparing ToG (and basically all the others this gen) to Tales in previous gens is such a good idea since the series has declined drastically since then (that's Namco's own fault for making too many). Better to just compare it to games this gen.

Series hasn't declined that horribly. If you combined Vesperia 360+PS3 you get healthy sales. I'm thinking a non-port PS3 one can will probably do 400-500k+ still these days. Vesperia 2 will show if it can if that ends up happening.

 

[markatisu]

I don't know how often it is that games don't get second shipments. Especially when we're talking about Namco here :lol

Well since its Namco I am shocked the shipment was not like 450k or something insane like that since their expectations are always so freaking high in their financials

 

[Nirolak]

Well since its Namco I am shocked the shipment was not like 450k or something insane like that since their expectations are always so freaking high in their financials

You can't ship what retailers won't buy.

When a publisher has a history of screwing you over with shipments, you're usually not that favorable to them anymore. :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

For what it's worth, NSMB Wii at one shop is 1 per customer. FFXIII isn't.

 

[schuelma]

For what it's worth, NSMB Wii at one shop is 1 per customer. FFXIII isn't.

huh

 

[Bel Marduk]

For what it's worth, NSMB Wii at one shop is 1 per customer. FFXIII isn't.

Obviously retailers are taking advantage of crazy people buying multiple copies and 5 of the LE bundles at once

NSMB is a beast though. And these first day numbers better come out soon!

 

[markatisu]

huh

I think he means that people are limited in buying NSMB Wii but they can buy as many copies of FFXIII as they want, implying that there is plenty of FFXIII supply

 

[mujun]

I think he means that people are limited in buying NSMB Wii but they can buy as many copies of FFXIII as they want, implying that there is plenty of FFXIII supply

Exactly

 

[Bebpo]

I don't think anyone is expecting them to have sold all 1.8 million copies on day 1

Plus if you use that logic, than every game in existence in Japan that is not mario has "plenty of supply" in stores because they aren't limiting them to 1 per customer.

 

[schuelma]

I think he means that people are limited in buying NSMB Wii but they can buy as many copies of FFXIII as they want, implying that there is plenty of FFXIII supply

I knew what he meant. I think my "huh" came out wrong.

 

[test_account]

As of now, no. Considering the game comes out in a couple weeks I don't think it will have one...

Ah ok. But wouldnt it be easy to just put the game up on the PS Store at the same day as they release the retail release (the physical copy with UMD, box and manual)?

The title of one Famitsu article was "aiming for 2m", that's probably where the number comes from.

Ah ok, i see, then i know where the 2 million number comes from thanks for the info!

For what it's worth, NSMB Wii at one shop is 1 per customer. FFXIII isn't.

Compared to everyone who buys a game, isnt it just a handful of these who buys several of copies of the same game? I have no idea though.

 

[dolemite]

Ah ok, i see, then i know where the 2 million number comes from thanks for the info!

The only absolutely certain number is 1.8 million shipped from Wada. The number of bundles is "rumor and speculation".

 

[dyls]

Well, one thing is clear looking at that graph: the DS is a terrible place for third-party games.

 

[Jonnyram]

For what it's worth, NSMB Wii at one shop is 1 per customer. FFXIII isn't.

This is purely to prevent reselling. The buying price (at used stores) for NSMB is high, and in some places it might be dangerously close to the selling price at other stores. I saw one store even paying 4500 yen for it!

 

[cvxfreak]

This is purely to prevent reselling. The buying price (at used stores) for NSMB is high, and in some places it might be dangerously close to the selling price at other stores. I saw one store even paying 4500 yen for it!

Pay with a credit card or your store points, get cash back. Brilliant. :lol

The demand for the game is beyond the roof, though. At least there's no accessory holding the game back from being readily available, unlike Pokemon last September. Red case notwithstanding.

 

[test_account]

The only absolutely certain number is 1.8 million shipped from Wada. The number of bundles is "rumor and speculation".

Ok, i see. But i ment if 2 million copies were mentioned in the Famitsu article as that Wada hoped that FFXIII would sell that much and not that it was shipped 2 million copies of FFXIII, then i understand where the 2 million number came from in the dualshockers.com article I just wondered why this dualshockers.com article mentioned 2 million copies when only 1.8 million copies had been confirmed as shipped. I guess that is where dualshockers.com got the 2 million number from, since they mention 2 million copies in their article and not 1.8 million

 

[mujun]

Does anyone have any insight into exactly what sort of numbers need to be achieved in Japan for FF13 to considered a success by SE?

Is there a number they've mentioned that is the "break even" number or is anyone able to predict?

I imagine that the budget for this game was pretty damned high considering how well produced it is and how long it's been in production.

 

[test_account]

Does anyone have any insight into exactly what sort of numbers need to be achieved in Japan for FF13 to considered a success by SE?

Is there a number they've mentioned that is the "break even" number or is anyone able to predict?

I imagine that the budget for this game was pretty damned high considering how well produced it is and how long it's been in production.

The retail price for FFXIII is about 9000 yen (about 100 US dollars). I am not sure how much Square-Enix makes from each copy that are sold, but maybe something around $60? If they get $60 from each copy that is sold and they sell 1.5 million copies, then they have made 90 million US dollars. I dont know how much it cost to make FFXIII, but i dont think that it is as much as 90 million US dollars. Or if they manage to sell 2 million copies, then they make 120 million dollars.

The adverticment campaign for FFXIII probably wasnt cheap either, but if i shall guess, i think that Square-Enix will at least break even after the 1st weeks of sales for FFXIII.

EDIT: In comparison, Kazunori Yamauchi (the guy behind the Gran Turismo games) estimated that it costed 60 million US dollars to develope Gran Turismo 5 and that it took about 5 years to develope Gran Turismo 5.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...urismo_5s_Development_Cost_Hit_60_Million.php

 

[Kard8p3]

Around what point should we be getting day one sales numbers?

 

[Nirolak]

The retail price for FFXIII is about 9000 yen (about 100 US dollars). I am not sure how much Square-Enix makes from each copy that are sold, but maybe something around $60? If they get $60 from each copy that is sold and they sell 1.5 million copies, then they have made 90 million US dollars. I dont know how much it cost to make FFXIII, but i dont think that it is as much as 90 million US dollars. Or if they manage to sell 2 million copies, then they make 120 million dollars.

The adverticment campaign for FFXIII probably wasnt cheap either, but if i shall guess, i think that Square-Enix will at least break even after the 1st weeks of sales for FFXIII.

EDIT: In comparison, Gran Turismo 5 costed 60 million US dollars to develope and it took about 5 years to develope Gran Turismo 5.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...urismo_5s_Development_Cost_Hit_60_Million.php

Marketing costs would be important to remember in this also.

EA tends to spend 2-3x the amount they spend on development advertising their big games, and Modern Warfare 2 racked up a marketing budget of over $150 million.

 

[Linkhero1]

Those FF XIII Bundles are insane. I wonder how much of the bundle will sell first day. Can't wait for the first day numbers

 

[kswiston]

Does anyone have any insight into exactly what sort of numbers need to be achieved in Japan for FF13 to considered a success by SE?

Is there a number they've mentioned that is the "break even" number or is anyone able to predict?

I imagine that the budget for this game was pretty damned high considering how well produced it is and how long it's been in production.

Final Fantasy games do about 60% of their worldwide LTD outside of Japan, so breaking even on Japanese sales alone is not critical. Even if the game cost $100M to make and market, Square-Enix is going to make a nice little profit. At the very low end, Final Fantasy XIII will ship 5M copies worldwide. Maybe 6-6.5M.

 

[test_account]

Marketing costs would be important to remember in this also.

I know, i did account for that for FFXIII I have no idea how much FFXIII's adverticement campaing costed, but i dont think that Square Enix has used tens of millions of dollars on FFXIII adverticement campaign. It probably cost millions of dollars thoug, but i dont think that it is as much as something like for example 10 million -20 million US dollars.

 

[Nirolak]

I know, i did account for that for FFXIII I have no idea how much FFXIII's adverticement campaing costed, but i dont think that Square Enix has used tens of millions of dollars on FFXIII adverticement campaign. It probably cost millions of dollars thoug, but i dont think that it is as much as something like for example 10 million -20 million US dollars.

I'm not sure either actually. Especially considering this is the Japanese market only so far. However, I tried to stealth edit in some of the ludicrous expenses other companies have in terms of marketing, but you caught me before I did.

 

[Jonnyram]

The retail price for FFXIII is about 9000 yen (about 100 US dollars). I am not sure how much Square-Enix makes from each copy that are sold, but maybe something around $60? If they get $60 from each copy that is sold and they sell 1.5 million copies, then they have made 90 million US dollars. I dont know how much it cost to make FFXIII, but i dont think that it is as much as 90 million US dollars. Or if they manage to sell 2 million copies, then they make 120 million dollars.

Don't forget to factor in financial help from Sony. They may have paid for most of the marketing, and probably helped a lot with early development too.

 

[Bel Marduk]

I really doubt FF XIII will only make a "small" profit in Japan...it'll give them some good money.

Btw, question. Does anyone know how much retailers buy the games from publishers for? Any game. The same as retail price or is it lower?

 

[Y2Kev]

They also managed to sell 200,000 units of a demo a few months back...

 

[test_account]

I'm not sure either actually. Especially considering this is the Japanese market only so far. However, I tried to stealth edit in some of the ludicrous expenses other companies have in terms of marketing, but you caught me before I did.

Ye, i forgot to write that, sorry, i was only thinking about the japanese market when i thought about the FFXIII adverticing campaign

Ah ok, i see your edit now, thanks for the website links! I didnt know that publishers uses this much money on adverticing games, so maybe adverticing is much more expencive than i first thought. These adverticment budgets might be for worldwide adverticing and i dont know how long these ad campaigns are running. It says "budget", so maybe they dont always end up using the amount that they have budget for, but i dont know.

But seeing these website links, maybe the FFXIII adverticing campaign really cost over 10 million US dollars in Japan only? But even if it cost this much, i still think that Square Enix will at least break even with FFXIII in the first week if they game sells something like 1.5 million copies.

Don't forget to factor in financial help from Sony. They may have paid for most of the marketing, and probably helped a lot with early development too.

Ah yes, that is true, i didnt think about this. I also think that Sony might have helped with some of costs around FFXIII indeed as you say, i agree

 

[Nirolak]

Ye, i forgot to write that, sorry, i was only thinking about the japanese market when i thought about the FFXIII adverticing campaign

Ah ok, i see your edit now, thanks for the website links! I didnt know that publishers uses this much money on adverticing games, so maybe adverticing is much more expencive than i first thought. These adverticment budgets might be for worldwide adverticing and i dont know how long these ad campaigns are running. It says "budget", so maybe they dont always end up using the amount that they have budget for, but i dont know.

But seeing these website links, maybe the FFXIII adverticing campaign really cost over 10 million US dollars in Japan only? But even if it cost this much, i still think that Square Enix will at least break even with FFXIII in the first week if they game sells something like 1.5 million copies.

Oh yeah I'm sure they'll make good money on this, especially if Jonnyram is right and Sony footed a lot of the bill. I was just noting that oddly enough development budget isn't even close to the main expense for some of these games.

 

[Y2Kev]

In terms of duration of development, the game is not dissimilar from the PS2 FFs-- it's actually shorter than FFXII. Figure out the team size and it might not be all that much more expensive, if at all. Square routinely spent 30+ million dollars on FF games last generation...and the generation before that.

 

[Nirolak]

In terms of duration of development, the game is not dissimilar from the PS2 FFs-- it's actually shorter than FFXII. Figure out the team size and it might not be all that much more expensive, if at all. Square routinely spent 30+ million dollars on FF games last generation...and the generation before that.

Didn't FFVII have something ludicrous like a $40-45 million budget along with $100 million in marketing from Sony?

I can't quite remember as I wasn't following sales when it came out. I'll see if I can find what I was thinking of.

Edit: Yeah, FFVII was actually $45 million: http://www.1up.com/do/feature?cId=3135727

I think the PS2 ones were actually cheaper.

Still looking for the marketing though.

Edit 2: Hmm, can't find the marketing budget from a site I'd call reliable. But yeah, the raw development costs for Final Fantasy during the PS1 era greatly outclass the budgets of many AAA HD games this generation even.