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[cvxfreak]

So it passed up FFIII most likely?

Impressive.

On Dengeki's chart FFIII actually outsold DQMJ for the week. Shortages. Unlike the PS3.

 

[Nightstick11]

Given how quickly Gears sold out, though, there wouldn't be any copies available for new 360 users, so of course it's not going to increase 360 hardware sales. The ~30,000 copies available in Japan were all snapped up by the existing 360 owners. Once a second shipment arrives, then we'll see if it manages to lure in any new 360 buyers.

you're kidding, right? You do know that GoW isn't going to last more than two weeks in the MC charts.

 

[nubbe]

Seems like you only can be the king for 2 generations... Ze curse... ZE CURSE!

 

[NintendosBooger]

Didn't Stringer expect this to happen during the early stages of this gen? I don't think Sony is the least bit shocked.

 

[fresquito]

At this point, non-gamers should be a term to refer those buying PS3 or/and PSP, not the ones buying Wii or/and NDS.

 

[Wyndstryker]

At this point, non-gamers should be a term to refer those buying PS3 or/and PSP, not the ones buying Wii or/and NDS.

At this rate...it might just happen.

 

[duderon]

I can't wait for the inevitable meltdown that will be the January NPD. Who will be the odd man out? PS3, 360, or will Nintendo take under shipping to a whole new level? It will be a trip :lol

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Didn't Stringer expect this to happen during the early stages of this gen? I don't think Sony is the least bit shocked.

We were told that the PS3 would sell 5 million without games. I also think that most people that wants VF5 has already purchased a PS3

 

[Earthstrike]

PS2?



It was some Sony guy (Harrison?) talking about the DS's audience around the launch of the PSP. Obviously, he was stupid.

he may also be making reference to just the orginal DS. Not gonna bother to check with calculations though.

 

[NintendosBooger]

We were told that the PS3 would sell 5 million without games. I also think that most people that wants VF5 has already purchased a PS3

I remember Stringer saying that he fully expects the Wii to outsell the PS3 at the beginning. I can't find the article, but I recall it being posted here.

 

[ethelred]

Looking over the past few pages of this thread, the only thing that pops into my mind is... damn, there sure are an awful lot of high hopes being placed on top of l'il ol' Virtua Fighter 5.

 

[bigswords]

you're kidding, right? You do know that GoW isn't going to last more than two weeks in the MC charts.

That is why you fail.....seriously LOL I agree with you, but u never know..u never know.

 

[Deku]

We were told that the PS3 would sell 5 million without games. I also think that most people that wants VF5 has already purchased a PS3

That was by some Sony Europe exec wasn't it? I'm sure internally some people at Sony extrapolated the PS2 launch and thought it would apply. But Sony would absolutely be insane if they didn't expect lower comparative demand to the PS2. And perhaps they did which allowed them freer hand to cut shipments without feeling too much pressure on lost sales. But these numbers in Japan are a total disaster granted its only been a couple months after launch. Nothing fatal. But certainly not what Sony is expecting at this point.

 

[soundwave05]

I can't wait for the inevitable meltdown that will be the January NPD. Who will be the odd man out? PS3, 360, or will Nintendo take under shipping to a whole new level? It will be a trip :lol

I'm not really sure if Nintendo shipped that many to North America. Should be more than the GCN's pitiful 68k first January though.

But Japan has already gobbled up like almost 400k Wiis in January alone, then I would assume Europe probably will get some of the January allotment as well.

 

[Error]

Looking over the past few pages of this thread, the only thing that pops into my mind is... damn, there sure are an awful lot of high hopes being placed on top of l'il ol' Virtua Fighter 5.

you forgot about the gundam musou game.

 

[donny2112]

he may also be making reference to just the orginal DS. Not gonna bother to check with calculations though.

Two reasons not to bother.

1) The DS Lite wasn't announced until 9 months later.
2) The quote is on the previous page.

Regardless, Pokemon still isn't really out for the DS in the U.S. That'll be in April. I guess that'll be when Nintendo's "target audience" finally picks up a DS.

 

[Vic]

Looking over the past few pages of this thread, the only thing that pops into my mind is... damn, there sure are an awful lot of high hopes being placed on top of l'il ol' Virtua Fighter 5.

It's the Sega Saturn saga all-over again!!

 

[bigswords]

you forgot about the gundam musou game.

Is it good? The first one Gundam : Target on sight was a game you would give to the person you absolutely hated.

 

[Nicktals]

Of course if that fly ball trajectory goes higher than expected, that ball has a better chance of leaving the park completely whereas the other balls would simply go into the stands, maybe hit the upper decks if they're lucky...of course the wind might hit any of the balls and they can just die on the warning track.

DS = wind

 

[Deku]

I'm not really sure if Nintendo shipped that many to North America. Should be more than the GCN's pitiful 68k first January though.

But Japan has already gobbled up like almost 400k Wiis in January alone, then I would assume Europe probably will get some of the January allotment as well.

To reach their 6million stated goal by FY end in March, they would have to sell ~933k units a month in the next 3 months. Granted I'm sure some units in March can be in the shipped but not yet sold column. So take 1 or 200k units off the total. But that's still alot of units to sell and I suspect the sales will go down from here. January will have the post Xmas boost in its first week world wide and rainchecks getting cashed in.

.933x3 = 2.8 million units + 3.2 shipped/sold as of Dec 31 = 6 million.

 

[Koren]

Two reasons not to bother.

1) The DS Lite wasn't announced until 9 months later.
2) The quote is on the previous page.

Regardless, Pokemon still isn't really out for the DS in the U.S. That'll be in April. I guess that'll be when Nintendo's "target audience" finally picks up a DS.

It's august 2005, one or two weeks before European PSP launch. A couple of month after the biginning of easter in Japan, still.

 

[Duderz]

Looking over the past few pages of this thread, the only thing that pops into my mind is... damn, there sure are an awful lot of high hopes being placed on top of l'il ol' Virtua Fighter 5.

Don't worry, Virtua Fighter will save the PS3 in Japan just like it did for the Dreamcast.

 

[duderon]

To reach their 6million stated goal by FY end in March, they would have to sell ~933k units a month in the next 3 months. Granted I'm sure some units in March can be in the shipped but not yet sold column. So take 1 or 200k units off the total. But that's still alot of units to sell and I suspect the sales will go down from here. January will have the post Xmas boost in its first week world wide and rainchecks getting cashed in.

.933x3 = 2.8 million units + 3.2 shipped/sold as of Dec 31 = 6 million.

Here are the percentages for the Wiis shipped before the new year.

Japan: 35.7%
NA: 39.2%
Other: 25.1%

And the number of units each region would get from the 2.8 million to be produced.

Japan: ~1 million
NA: ~1.1 million
Other: ~700k

 

[cvxfreak]

Looking over the past few pages of this thread, the only thing that pops into my mind is... damn, there sure are an awful lot of high hopes being placed on top of l'il ol' Virtua Fighter 5.

It's the REmake of its time.

 

[donny2112]

It's august 2005, one or two weeks before European PSP launch. A couple of month after the biginning of easter in Japan, still.

Ah, my bad. I thought it was around the launch of the PSP in the U.S. In that case, it's ~4 months until the DS Lite announcement.

 

[soundwave05]

Japan has already gone through almost 400k and January isn't even over yet. I think it's safe to say, they will get more than 1 million from Jan-end of March.

BTW, in the press release Mr. Mingawa (NCL rep) stated they would ship 6 million by the end of March, but have 7 million manufactured ... so in theory, if there's demand for more than 6 million, they could ship more than 6 million. It would probably be a nice way to stir up their investors too.

 

[Gahiggidy]

Japan has already gone through almost 400k and January isn't even over yet. I think it's safe to say, they will get more than 1 million from Jan-end of March.

BTW, in the press release Mr. Mingawa (NCL rep) stated they would ship 6 million by the end of March, but have 7 million manufactured ... so in theory, if there's demand for more than 6 million, they could ship more than 6 million. It would probably be a nice way to stir up their investors too.

No, they won't have time... as Nintendo scheudles the full million to be finished production on the last workday of every month.

 

[PantherLotus]

Here are the percentages for the Wiis shipped before the new year.

Japan: 35.7%
NA: 39.2%
Other: 25.1%

And the number of units each region would get from the 2.8 million to be produced.

Japan: ~1 million
NA: ~1.1 million
Other: ~700k

Is this in reference to how many Nintendo can produce each month?

If it is, then sales aren't reflecting it, or we'd be seeing 200k weeks on the MC chart, right?

 

[JJConrad]

To reach their 6million stated goal by FY end in March, they would have to sell ~933k units a month in the next 3 months. Granted I'm sure some units in March can be in the shipped but not yet sold column. So take 1 or 200k units off the total. But that's still alot of units to sell and I suspect the sales will go down from here. January will have the post Xmas boost in its first week world wide and rainchecks getting cashed in.

.933x3 = 2.8 million units + 3.2 shipped/sold as of Dec 31 = 6 million.

Split over 3 months in 3 regions with the system still sold-out in all of them, 2.8 million really doesn't seem that hard to sell.

 

[Amir0x]

guys, PS3 just priced itself out of the market. Even at its "cheaper" Japanese price point, it's still way too expensive. Sony ****ed their own ass up, that's the way it goes these days. The 'ol giants do it to themselves in the end.

No games will change that. It's not gonna be a total bomba, thanks only to Final Fantasy XIII, but PS3 will be a rusted giant in the face of its competition. Sony needs a big shift for PS4 to make sure the system comes in a reasonable price, hopefully to salvage true next-gen gameplay before it's held back forever.

 

[PantherLotus]

Split over 3 months in 3 regions with the system still sold-out in all of them, 2.8 million really doesn't seem that hard to sell.

...6 million was a conservative estimate.

 

[duderon]

Is this in reference to how many Nintendo can produce each month?

If it is, then sales aren't reflecting it, or we'd be seeing 200k weeks on the MC chart, right?

No it's in reference to the fiscal year projections of 6 million units. That is how many systems each region should get from Jan 1st until March 31st.

 

[LanceStern]

DS is doing great

 

[Pureauthor]

hopefully to salvage true next-gen gameplay before it's held back forever.

By the PS4, won't Nintendo also have entered the HD era? I recall them promising as much.

 

[PantherLotus]

guys, PS3 just priced itself out of the market. Even at its "cheaper" Japanese price point, it's still way too expensive. Sony ****ed their own ass up, that's the way it goes these days. The 'ol giants do it to themselves in the end.

No games will change that. It's not gonna be a total bomba, thanks only to Final Fantasy XIII, but PS3 will be a rusted giant in the face of its competition. Sony needs a big shift for PS4 to make sure the system comes in a reasonable price, hopefully to salvage true next-gen gameplay before it's held back forever.

What about MGS4? That should do pretty well. And although the 360 will never reach one million units in Japan, sure that counts as "true next gen" gameplay?

 

[soundwave05]

By the PS4, won't Nintendo also have entered the HD era? I recall them promising as much.

Probably before the PS4 comes out. Sony's stuck with the PS3 till 2012 I think. If they axe it before then, they will suffer a lot of loss in confidence from consumers and developers.

 

[Deku]

Split over 3 months in 3 regions with the system still sold-out in all of them, 2.8 million really doesn't seem that hard to sell.

Yes you are right but they need to pull off an awesome January in all territories to give themselves that breathing room for when sales drop off in February which is also a shorter month and March or they may not hit those targets. In that sense, January almost have to be above average.

It's OT and I'm not really privy to any special NPD information but I do think January NPD might be a shocker in terms of Wii sales. They are lots of reports of restocks but its still sold out.

By the PS4, won't Nintendo also have entered the HD era? I recall them promising as much.

As a matter of currency, Nintendo's promises are only worth marginally more than Sony's and it just rebounded back from being totally worthless (see all the broken promises from the last 2 generations)

 

[Amir0x]

By the PS4, won't Nintendo also have entered the HD era? I recall them promising as much.

Probably with Wii HD, they'll JUST be getting to 360 level visuals. Presumably Xbox 720 and PS4 will go beyond that, unless they stupidly interpret that the message is not "the price sucks" but high end gaming that is the problem.

What about MGS4? That should do pretty well. And although the 360 will never reach one million units in Japan, sure that counts as "true next gen" gameplay?

Eh, I think again MGS4 won't do as well as people think. Not enough to save the system. Same for Devil May Cry 4. These games may do very well, million+, but won't save the system from a watery grave (edit: more appropriately it won't save PS3 from a retirement home. PS3 will be alive, but barely).

360 is a mess in Japan, nobody really cares about it in Europe so it really only has the USA to save its ass. Thankfully I live in the USA... unfortunately, Japanese devs don't.

 

[Pureauthor]

Probably with Wii HD, they'll JUST be getting to 360 level visuals. Presumably Xbox 720 and PS4 will go beyond that, unless they stupidly interpret that the message is not "the price sucks" but high end gaming that is the problem.

But isn't 'high-end' gaming the entire reason the prices shot up this generation? The USD 600 price tag is due to Blu Ray drive, isn't it? If Sony and Microsoft and whoever want to remain similarly 'cutting-edge' and deliver a leap as big as they did this generation, the price is going to go up as well, right?

Probably before the PS4 comes out. Sony's stuck with the PS3 till 2012 I think. If they axe it before then, they will suffer a lot of loss in confidence from consumers and developers.

Well, as a consumer, I can tell you I lost a lot of confidence in them... sometime around May, if I recall correctly. And I somehow don't think the developers have the same confidence they had with the PS3 as they had with the PS2.

Thankfully I live in the USA... unfortunately, Japanese devs don't.

Of the majority of 3rd party japan devs, the only really Japanese-centric ones are SE (which you largely don't care for) and the Bandai portion of Namco-Bandai, right? Several others like Capcom set their views on worldwide (including the 360's insane tie-ratios in America) and thus far it seems to be paying off for them.

 

[soundwave05]

Wii 2 will probably be a turbo-ized 360 type chipset (powerwise) with some other new interface option in addition to the motion controllers.

I'm sure ATi/IBM could give Nintendo that by around 2010, when HD penetration is higher. They could continue to support the Wii for one more year (giving it a full 5 year cycle), but launch the Wii 2 anyway. Kinda like the DS-GBA transition.

I think after this gen you will start to hit some diminishing returns visually.

 

[donny2112]

Yes you are right but they need to pull off an awesome January in all territories to give themselves that breathing room for when sales drop off in February which is also a shorter month and March or they may not hit those targets. In that sense, January almost have to be above average.

February is the same as January (4 weeks) by NPD counting standards. That's part of the reason they do a 4-4-5 schedule regardless of the actual calendar days in a month.

 

[Amir0x]

But isn't 'high-end' gaming the entire reason the prices shot up this generation? The USD 600 price tag is due to Blu Ray drive, isn't it? If Sony and Microsoft and whoever want to remain similarly 'cutting-edge' and deliver a leap as big as they did this generation, the price is going to go up as well, right?

360 got itself in at a good price. Unfortunately, it's the brand that is a problem for that system in EURO and JAPAN. If PS3 came in at the same price, it still might lose to the massively cheaper Wii in Japan but it would not even be NEAR as terrible as it's going to be for Sony now. The rude awakening they are about to suffer is going to be cataclysmic.

PS3's problem WAS Blu-Ray. That wasn't ready for primetime even by "high end" standards. They simply should have went with a DVD drive, and all will have been well. The system would have been suitably mighty and it would have released a year earlier in all likelihood.

 

[Deku]

Wii 2 will probably be a turbo-ized 360 type chipset (powerwise) with some other new interface option in addition to the motion controllers.

I'm sure ATi/IBM could give Nintendo that by around 2010, when HD penetration is higher. They could continue to support the Wii for one more year (giving it a full 5 year cycle), but launch the Wii 2 anyway. Kinda like the DS-GBA transition.

I think after this gen you will start to hit some diminishing returns visually.

too early to speculate. Conventional wisdom will say that and if Sony gets burned they may pull a Wii for PS4 and make it a turbo PS3 with a "gimmicky controller(tm)" which could mean parity again. This will also kind of make sense since Cell is a long term project for Sony and they would probably want to use it beyond just 1 gaming platform.

But that's one of many hundreds of possible scenarios that could play out. I think Nintendo has a number of problems down the road (aside from strong software support to keep the Wii going) and its basically how to top the Wii. They could be utterly conventional and say 'more is better' which would be ironic considering that's exactly the type of regime they are trying to overthrow, or they could go for even crazier designs.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

Sorta makes you wonder where Sony/MS will go from PS3/360 after this gen if Nintendo captures it all. The same strategy surely won't be undertaken, but if they adopt Nintendo's strategy, they'll barely have to do anything with their systems aside from rebox them and sell them cheaper.

 

[Grecco]

I Think its wayy to early to start speculating about 5-6 years from now. Who knows if the current 3 are still here, or if theres another console maker by then...

 

[Pureauthor]

360 got itself in at a good price. Unfortunately, it's the brand that is a problem for that system in EURO and JAPAN. If PS3 came in at the same price, it still might lose to the massively cheaper Wii but it would not even be NEAR as terrible as it's going to be for Sony now. The rude awakening they are about to suffer is going to be cataclysmic.

Enh. I consider USD 300 'pushing it', but that's just me.

PS3's problem WAS Blu-Ray. That wasn't ready for primetime even by "high end" standards. They simply should have went with a DVD drive, and all will have been well. The system would have been suitably mighty and it would have released a year earlier in all likelihood.

In here, at least, we are in complete agreement.

 

[Bearillusion]

We were told that the PS3 would sell 5 million without games. I also think that most people that wants VF5 has already purchased a PS3

You could say the same thing about X360 and Halo 3.

 

[soundwave05]

too early to speculate. Conventional wisdom will say that, and the irony is, if Sony gets burned they may pull a Wii for PS4 and make it a turbo PS3 with a "gimmicky controller(tm)" which could mean parity again.

But that's one of many hundreds of possible scenarios that could play out. I think Nintendo has a number of problems down the road (aside from strong software support to keep the Wii going) and its basically how to top the Wii. They could be utterly conventional and say 'more is better' which would be ironic consider that's exactly the type of regime they are trying to overthrow, or they could go for even crazier designs.

I think Nintendo's best plan of attack from here on out is to simply jump on Sony's mistakes and not let them get any breathing room. Sony didn't really do anything special with the PSOne to PS2 ... but they just gave Nintendo no breathing room to launch a comeback.

That might mean another console in say 4 years rather than 5 or 6, to get a 10-20 million unit headstart. Nintendo didn't do a full generation upgrade this generation, so they can sorta come in between.

The other problem is interface is only part of the solution. Nintendo is very inventive in making software that defines an interface ... I don't know if Sony really has that kind of vision. The "tunnel vision" that Sony/MS have in catering to their core demographics I think sometimes tunes them out, whereas Nintendo I think is finding life outside of Mario/Zelda to be quite nice.

 

[Amir0x]

Enh. I consider USD 300 'pushing it', but that's just me.

It's not really. PS2 came in at that price and exploded the market, and it would have done that even if Gamecube came out the same day with its $100 dollar advantage. It's a damn fine price to get in at, particularly if you have good technology in the box. It avoids the "it's cheap" aspect (ya know, the feeling that the device is flimsy and lame - it's a real phenomenon) and it avoids the "it's too expensive" factor in one swing. Factoring in inflation, it's impossible for a system to come in at $300 for eternity. It has to rise eventually, so $399 is not bad at all over time.

Notice the markets are different for everything, though. For handheld gaming $199 and $250 was too expensive as illustrated by PSP. Although I think next handheld generation, that will be just right.

 

[Mrbob]

Probably with Wii HD, they'll JUST be getting to 360 level visuals. Presumably Xbox 720 and PS4 will go beyond that, unless they stupidly interpret that the message is not "the price sucks" but high end gaming that is the problem.

Err, after what Nintendo pushed out with the Wii five years after GC, I highly doubt the Wii HD will have 360 level visuals.