The Faceless Master
Member
:lol :lol :lolGraphics Horse said:TWO WEEKS!
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Media Create Sales Jan 22 - 28
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
marvelharvey
Member
Lapsed said:
This comment amongst your well written post really struck a chord...
JoshuaJSlone
Member
GhaleonEB said:
BrodiemanTTR
Member
Something to consider as we look at the Wii dominate Japan while PS3 and 360 explore various degrees of floppage, is the perceived irrelevance of Japan numbers versus the bigger markets of the US and EU. A lot of people will tell you "Japan doesn't matter", but consider this:
December NPD put 360 at 1 million, and it wasn't for a lack of supply. Walk into a Best Buy at any point in the Christmas season and there were stacks of 360s. Literally pyramids of consoles. Wii sold as we know about 650k, restricted by supply. Here we are coming up on almost three months from launch and it's still a big deal whenever a store gets Wii shipments. Not using any specific numbers, but if in the US 360 and Wii hover at around the same number sold each month or even if Wii is a bit behind (January NPD should tell us more), Japan suddenly takes center stage. With offsetting US numbers, Wii's advantage over the 360 in Japan has global repercussions. Assuming that once Nintendo can adequately supply stores, Wii levels off at about 100k per week (I hesistate to predict DS-like success) and 360 continues to flounder, you've got Wii outselling 360 in Japan each month to the tune of 400k:~35k. With numbers like that, Wii would eventually catch up to and possibly overtake 360 as the global market leader.
(In this example I didn't take into account the EU as I'm not sure on the specifics but as I understand the Wii and 360 are both fairly popular there. I also did not factor the PS3 as I suspect that it will continue to struggle through 2007 until it can build up a portfolio of system-selling games as well as recieve a price cut)
December NPD put 360 at 1 million, and it wasn't for a lack of supply. Walk into a Best Buy at any point in the Christmas season and there were stacks of 360s. Literally pyramids of consoles. Wii sold as we know about 650k, restricted by supply. Here we are coming up on almost three months from launch and it's still a big deal whenever a store gets Wii shipments. Not using any specific numbers, but if in the US 360 and Wii hover at around the same number sold each month or even if Wii is a bit behind (January NPD should tell us more), Japan suddenly takes center stage. With offsetting US numbers, Wii's advantage over the 360 in Japan has global repercussions. Assuming that once Nintendo can adequately supply stores, Wii levels off at about 100k per week (I hesistate to predict DS-like success) and 360 continues to flounder, you've got Wii outselling 360 in Japan each month to the tune of 400k:~35k. With numbers like that, Wii would eventually catch up to and possibly overtake 360 as the global market leader.
(In this example I didn't take into account the EU as I'm not sure on the specifics but as I understand the Wii and 360 are both fairly popular there. I also did not factor the PS3 as I suspect that it will continue to struggle through 2007 until it can build up a portfolio of system-selling games as well as recieve a price cut)
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
GhaleonEB said:
...I don't suppose you noticed that the Wii has been declining for 4 weeks too? Not to discount your point, of course, but hardware is down across the board after the holidays, hence my "post-holiday avg" which is much much different than the "next gen (9-week) average."
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
ethelred said:
A sad, sad little man. That would be like going through life and only having Pepperoni or Cheese Pizza, never having tried Supreme or Hawaiian or Meatlovers. I could come up with more bad analogies if you'd like.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
pswii60 said:
Make an estimate to how much and how long of an effect it will have. I'm guessing it will push up sales to around 70k for a couple weeks and then it will fall right back down.
pswii60 said:
Whoa, hey, that's what I said last week. I'm glad to see we're on the same page on this one. VF5's going to turn it all around.
BrodiemanTTR said:
No offense, but you're predicting a ridiculously number for Wii in Japan. 400k a month? Japan hasn't historically been a market that supports that kind of number for a home console, and I don't think that Wii is suddenly gonna more than double the average sales number for a console during the year.
That's like predicting a console is gonna start selling 500k to 600k a month during the year in the US. It just doesn't happen, unless something drastic changes in the market.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
AniHawk said:
Wait a second, we're using facts and figures now?? WTFISTHISSHIT?!
So you're telling me that an earlier title in the same series in the same location sold not even 500k with a much much larger userbase and that's supposed to mean something?
Odysseus said:
Show me data that says PS2 was selling half a mil + a month in March or June.
Edit: Not trying to be sarcastic, I didn't follow numbers back then so I have no idea what it was selling. But for the last 2 years or so, I haven't seen teh Xbox or PS2 go past 400,000 in any normal month in the US.
Alcibiades
Member
how cute this is all turning out...cvxfreak said:Relying Sega to save PS3. Talk about coming full circle.
Sega should demand big money from Sony or threaten to delay the PS3 version of Virtua Fighter to do a simultaneous release with the 360 version (unless there is already some sweet money deal behind closed doors). Sega f*cked up big time after Genesis, but the PS2 had more to do with Sega's downfall than anything they did with Dreamcast. How could they forget so easily...
Alcibiades
Member
how much money could they possibly be losing with the current size of the PS3 userbase? Sony is banking on Sega. They should take advantage of the situation, or rather, hopefully they are taking full advantage here and squeezing every penny out of Sony for timed exclusivity.Raw64life said:
909er said:
on the second part, we agree
on the first part, 2002 was clearly ps2's best year, but 2001 and 2003 were no slouches. 2004 was down due in no small part to shortages leading up to and following the switchover to the ps2 slim model, and it also happened to be xbox's best year.
fresquito said:
Alright, I give up on my point on Japan. I don't see Wii doing close to 400k a month on a normal month still. But I don't see the same craze translating to America. And I definitely don't see it doing those early PS2 numbers. Part of PS2's strong early sales were the dominant brand name and the fact that it was a cheap DVD player. While Wii is the cheapest, at $250 it's still not that much cheaper than the 360, and there isn't any peripheral advantage to buying the Wii that the PS2 had(and PS3 has, but I think Blu-ray is a lot less relevant since it isn't the kind of change that VHS to DVD was, and because it's so expensive).
When I was a kid, and through high school, my friends had Nintendo systems. I've played quite a bit of NES and SNES (Zelda: A Link to the Past, all the 8 and 16-bit Marios, F-Zero, the NES Castlevania games pop to mind). I swapped my Genesis for a SNES for a month once, swapped a Saturn for a Playstation for a few weeks with another friend after high school (Wipeout, Gran Turismo). They're all great systems, I just could never afford to own/support more than one at a time.AniHawk said:
I came from a very, very poor family and gaming was one of our outlets, but we could only afford maybe one new game every other month, tops. New games have been an event all my life. In the Xbox gen, I got one game every three months because we were either in college, or saving for a house after college. It's not like I've hated the other systems - they just were not an option because I'd already bought one.
But hey, I can support two kids and two mortgage loans on one income, why not two systems now. :\
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
909er said:
You're blind and you have an agenda. You're talking about shit that is so irrelevant to what is happening that when you do realize what has happened you'll be shocked you didn't see it earlier.
cvxfreak said:
Yes, I'm quite impressed how they're doing on it lately. They should really get cranking on some more stuff. I mentioned a few weeks ago that Shiren's success should tell Sega that there's a market here for RPGs, and they should really get some of their own excellent series out there (like Shining, Phantasy Star, or Skies).
GhaleonEB said:
I felt really sorry for you when you said you never got to play Phantasy Star IV.
I still plan to track it down this summer, either a month before or after Mass Effect hits. That thread reminded me that I need to play it to wrap up the 16-bit games.ethelred said:I felt really sorry for you when you said you never got to play Phantasy Star IV.
(Okay, enough of my derailing. I thought I'd mention the Wii "development" because I couldn't find another thread to toss it into. I'm personally not a fan of the concept of that system, but I'm going to try to keep my mind open. Besides, I never did finish Zelda: A Link to the Past, so perhaps that will be on VC, if it's not already, by then. I have fond memories of beating up chickens, and the getting a massive swarm of them decending upon me for revenge.)