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[Grampasso]

For comparison:
DQIX first week: 2,343k
2nd week: -74%
3rd week: -55%
4th week: -37%

IF MH3 follows a similar trend:
MH3 First week: 583k
2nd week: 151k
3rd week: 68k
4th week: 43k

Estimated total after 1 month: 845k

I know it's a stretch, but just saying...

Edit: I'm considering Famitsu numbers

 

[Nirolak]

Definitely, and it's to be expected, since the local multiplayer option, which is a key draw for the MHP games is essentially missing in the Wii version.

Isn't there two person split screen actually? I thought I remembered seeing it in some early videos.

 

[Spiegel]

After a not so great first day number, Tales of Versus ended debuting higher than:

- [WII] Tales of Symphonia 2 (151k)
- [NDS] Tales of Hearts (141k)
- [PSP] Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology (127k)
- [NDS] Tales of Innocence (106k)
- [360]Tales of Vesperia (101k)
- [NDS]Tales of Tempest (83k)

Not bad, it's only below Tales of The World: Radiant Mythology 2 in the list of Tales games released this gen.

 

[markatisu]

Isn't there two person split screen actually? I thought I remembered seeing it in some early videos.

Yes there is two person split screen local play and 4 player online co-op

 

[test_account]

That was a continuation of the DS though.

Didnt the DS hardware sales really take off when the DS Lite was launched? Personally i dont think think that the color of a gaming system matters that much, at least not when the color is between black, white and grey. The Wii did sell really well within the first year or so, and so far, over 8 million white Wii consoles have been sold in Japan. As long as a gaming system has interesting games and a good price tag, i think this is what matters the most to people in general

If MH3 bombed, then so did every PS3 and 360 game in Japan.

How so?

Definitely, and it's to be expected, since the local multiplayer option, which is a key draw for the MHP games is essentially missing in the Wii version.

MH3 does have 2 player local split-screen coop though But i dont know how much draw this is compared to the 4 player local co-op that the PSP Monster Hunter games has though.

EDIT: I see that Nirolak and markatisu have already mentioned that MH3 has local co-op

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How so?

They sold worse.

 

[Tenbatsu]

So can we expect MH3 Tri to be No.1 in the Media Create Numbers?

 

[schuelma]

If Tri peters out to 900K or so, I don't think its fair to call it a bomba or a failure..but I think you could accurately say its possibly a mild disappointment to Capcom given their pre-launch expectations.

 

[test_account]

They sold worse.

True, but isnt "bomb" mostly used compared to shipment/expectations VS copies sold? This is the way that i understood the "bomb" talk regarding MH3 at least, that the MH3 shipment was relatively much higher compared to how many copies that were sold so far.

EDIT: And because of the 59% price drop in one store chain as well.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

So can we expect MH3 Tri to be No.1 in the Media Create Numbers?

Really all depends on whether Famitsu overtracked week 1 then corrected. If they did, then it's possible you'll see a noticeably higher week 2 figure from MC/Dengeki, although it may not be high enough to edge out the two new entries.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Didnt the DS hardware sales really take off when the DS Lite was launched? Personally i dont think think that the color of a gaming system matters that much, at least not when the color is between black, white and grey. The Wii did sell really well within the first year or so, and so far, over 8 million white Wii consoles have been sold in Japan. As long as a gaming system has interesting games and a good price tag, i think this is what matters the most to people in general

DS Phat was already sellin like hotcakes at the end of 2005 - i remember the glorious week were it sold nearly 600k in one december week ....

 

[dolemite]

If Tri peters out to 900K or so, I don't think its fair to call it a bomba or a failure..but I think you could accurately say its possibly a mild disappointment to Capcom given their pre-launch expectations.

Didn't Capcom ship 1 million units? that would mean there are 100k orphans that were never purchased.

 

[lochnesssnowman]

In amongst all the bomba talk, I'm just glad to see a spate or high profile releases in Japan recently that's pushed the low watermark for the top 10 up to 33k, with releases of 33/32k not even making it in. It was looking a little desperate for a while.

 

[Nirolak]

If Tri peters out to 900K or so, I don't think its fair to call it a bomba or a failure..but I think you could accurately say its possibly a mild disappointment to Capcom given their pre-launch expectations.

I think the biggest sales disappointment for Capcom will come from their world wide sales predictions.

If Monster Hunter 3 only sells 900,000 in Japan, that means they need to sell 1.1 million in the West by the end of March 2010 in order to meet their 2 million unit predictions, and I'm having a hard time seeing that happening.

 

[Spiegel]

So can we expect MH3 Tri to be No.1 in the Media Create Numbers?

If Famitsu really overtracked MH3 in the first week I don't expect them to correct their mistake in one week. I think they will do it gradually in the coming weeks so I'm not expecting MH3 to be No.1 in MC

If Tri peters out to 900K or so, I don't think its fair to call it a bomba or a failure..but I think you could accurately say its possibly a mild disappointment to Capcom given their pre-launch expectations.

If the game fails to sell its first shipment in a few months Capcom will have to rethink their expectations and priorities for upcoming MH games.

Are there big games which have failed to sell its first shipment in a few weeks/months? Donny? Joshua?

 

[the thoroughbred]

LOL :lol

Hang on a moment...

EDIT: Here you go. I think the MHG Wii number is out of date, but everything else should be correct:

Monster Hunter 120k / 54k (288k LTD)
Monster Hunter G 128k / 30k (232k LTD)
Monster Hunter Freedom 118k / 53k (668k LTD)
Monster Hunter 2 368k / 95k (570k LTD)
Monster Hunter Freedom 2 746k / 156k (1,720k LTD)
Monster Hunter Portable 2G 823k / 552k (2,452k LTD)
Monster Hunter G Wii 142k / 34k (224k LTD)
Monster Hunter Tri 583k / 138k (721k LTD)

With the second week numbers in, that makes it the best-selling console installment by a mile, although there's no hope of it challenging the two PSP versions for second-best or best-selling member of the series!

Not as impressive as I'd expected, and I think it may take a bit longer to reach the million. I still reckon it will do it though...

Thanks. Now I can relieve myself.:lol

 

[test_account]

DS Phat was already sellin like hotcakes at the end of 2005 - i remember the glorious week were it sold nearly 600k in one december week ....

Ye, you are right, the DS Phat sales were pretty impressive in the end of 2005 indeed, i wasnt aware of that, so thanks for mentioning this! But after checking at Garaph.info, i see that it was not until the DS Lite was released that the DS was selling over 100k systems a week for week after week for about 1.5 year in a row (with some expections, in the 78 weeks from the DS Lite launch, only 6 week of those weeks had DS Lite hardware sales under 100k). EDIT: These numbers are based on the Media Create numbers at Garaph.info. Based on the Famitsu numbers, only 3 weeks out of those 78 weeks were under 100k, and one of these 3 weeks were almost 100k (99,740 to be precise)

It might have been a bit of a "coincidence" (or what i shall say) that the DS Lite was released shortly after (about 3 months) the end of 2005 when the DS sold really well. If the DS Lite wasnt released, maybe the DS Phat would have sold over 100k a week for week after week as well just like the DS Lite did?

But the DS Lite color was white in general (i think so at least?), and many people bought it. I just wanted to mention that i personally dont think that a color of a gaming system matters that much, at least when the colors are either black, white or grey. I do belive that the color of a gaming system might have some affect on the sales though, but as long as a gaming system have interesting games and a good pricetag, i think that this is the most important thing to people in general, but that is just my opinion

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

If Famitsu really overtracked MH3 in the first week I don't expect them to correct their mistake in one week. I think they will do it gradually in the coming weeks so I'm not expecting MH3 to be No.1 in MC



If the game fails to sell its first shipment in a few months Capcom will have to rethink their expectations and priorities for upcoming MH games.

Are there big games which have failed to sell its first shipment in a few weeks/months? Donny? Joshua?

The other guys can fill in better, but one off the top of my head would be Wii Music.

 

[schuelma]

If the game fails to sell its first shipment in a few months Capcom will have to rethink their expectations and priorities for upcoming MH games.

In what way? Maybe for MH Tri G they don't ship as many units, but I don't see anything so horrible as to rethink the direction of the franchise. It's still a clear improvement over previous console entries. I think the Wii-PSP-Wii-PSP pattern is still the way to maximize sales.

 

[poppabk]

I would imagine that MH3 will be judged a success based on the install base of paying online customers.

 

[donny2112]

Really all depends on whether Famitsu overtracked week 1 then corrected.

If the over 1 million shipment is correct, Media Create undertracked.

 

[schuelma]

The other guys can fill in better, but one off the top of my head would be Wii Music.

I feel like Animal Crossing took a while, but could be wrong.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I feel like Animal Crossing took a while, but could be wrong.

There was definitely a shipment of Animal Crossing Wii that failed to sell, cuz it was at the bomba-price of 2000 yen a couple months ago on the clearance tables. Not sure if that was the first shipment though.

 

[donny2112]

Are there big games which have failed to sell its first shipment in a few weeks/months? Donny? Joshua?

I don't keep track of shipments, but duckroll mentioned Mobile Suit Gundam: The One Year War as being a greatly overshipped title, IIRC.

But after checking at Garaph.info, i see that it was not until the DS Lite was released that the DS was selling over 100k systems a week for week after week for about 1.5 year in a row

You're confused a bit there. The DS was consistently sold out from the end of 2005 until over two years later. The reason DS only sold 50K in the weeks before DS Lite is solely because that's how many DSs Nintendo shipped. The DS Lite release starting the trend over 100K per week solely indicates that Nintendo was shipping more units. Demand was already greatly outstripping supply before DS Lite's release.

 

[Spiegel]

In what way? Maybe for MH Tri G they don't ship as many units, but I don't see anything so horrible as to rethink the direction of the franchise. It's still a clear improvement over previous console entries. I think the Wii-PSP-Wii-PSP pattern is still the way to maximize sales.

With priorities I meant marketing per example.

Yeah, MH3 has outsold all the other console versions but let's not forget it had one of the biggest marketing campaigns lately. People compared it with the one that DQIX had. They expected the game to sell one million easily and marketed the game in that way. I don't know, maybe they will conclude that the added sales weren't worth the effort.

 

[RJT]

MH3 does have 2 player local split-screen coop though But i dont know how much draw this is compared to the 4 player local co-op that the PSP Monster Hunter games has though.

EDIT: I see that Nirolak and markatisu have already mentioned that MH3 has local co-op

Wouldn't local co-op on Wii require one copy of the game, versus up to four copies with the PSP version?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

With priorities I meant marketing per example.

Yeah, MH3 has outsold all the other console versions but let's not forget it had one of the biggest marketing campaigns lately. People compared it with the one that DQIX had. They expected the game to sell one million easily and marketed the game in that way. I don't know, maybe they will conclude that the added sales weren't worth the effort.

I really doubt anyone, especially Capcom (Lords of All Who Milk and Shall Be Milked), would leave 800-900k worth of sales on the table. They'll probably just adjust the budgets accordingly for the next one.

The engine's done now, they might as well abuse it.

 

[Spiegel]

I really doubt anyone, especially Capcom (Lords of All Who Milk and Shall Be Milked), would leave 800-900k worth of sales on the table. They'll probably just adjust the budgets accordingly for the next one.

The engine's done now, they might as well abuse it.

That's what I meant.

Maybe they prefer MH3G on Wii to sell 600k with normal marketing than 800-900k with monster marketing.

 

[schuelma]

With priorities I meant marketing per example.

Yeah, MH3 has outsold all the other console versions but let's not forget it had one of the biggest marketing campaigns lately. People compared it with the one that DQIX had. They expected the game to sell one million easily and marketed the game in that way. I don't know, maybe they will conclude that the added sales weren't worth the effort.

I don't know..was it much bigger than campaigns for MGS4 or Yakuza? Certainly it was massive in comparison to any other 3rd party Wii game, but I can't imagine Capcom will be so disppointed with a 900K LTD or something along those lines and treat the series differently. Capcom's now made a commitment to the series on the Wii and I don't think they're now going to lesser that commitment. I think we might see an adjustment in shipment numbers, but that's it.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

I don't know..was it much bigger than campaigns for MGS4 or Yakuza? Certainly it was massive in comparison to any other 3rd party Wii game, but I can't imagine Capcom will be so disppointed with a 900K LTD or something along those lines and treat the series differently. Capcom's now made a commitment to the series on the Wii and I don't think they're now going to lesser that commitment. I think we might see an adjustment in shipment numbers, but that's it.

Bigger than Yakuza's, about on par with MGS4's.

 

[schuelma]

Bigger than Yakuza's, about on par with MGS4's.

Thanks as always

 

[farnham]

Bigger than Yakuza's, about on par with MGS4's.

well it sold about what MGS4 did in 2 weeks so not that bad i guess

 

[schuelma]

Will we even get any MC numbers this week with the holiday?

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

well it sold about what MGS4 did in 2 weeks so not that bad i guess

Indeed. Though I doubt it will enjoy the same international success that MGS4 did.

 

[Spiegel]

well it sold about what MGS4 did in 2 weeks so not that bad i guess

Of course it's not bad but MGS4 has the benefit of being a 4 million+ selling game. They can expend more on marketing.

 

[onken]

well it sold about what MGS4 did in 2 weeks so not that bad i guess

Install base size may have something to do with it.

 

[schuelma]

Of course it's not bad but MGS4 has the benefit of being a 4 million+ selling game. They can expend more on marketing.

Does the Japanese marketing budget really have to do that much with the international sales expectations? I guess the logic is that it is ok to spend a crapload on Japanese marketing because it will make so much money elsewhere?

 

[Captain Smoker]

Of course it's not bad but MGS4 has the benefit of being a 4 million+ selling game. They can expend more on marketing.

MH3 has online fees though.

 

[farnham]

Install base size may have something to do with it.

i think that is a given

Does the Japanese marketing budget really have to do that much with the international sales expectations? I guess the logic is that it is ok to spend a crapload on Japanese marketing because it will make so much money elsewhere?

well i would be shocked if MH3 did not make its marketing fees back with over 700k sold in the first two weeks..

 

[norinrad21]

I think the biggest sales disappointment for Capcom will come from their world wide sales predictions.

If Monster Hunter 3 only sells 900,000 in Japan, that means they need to sell 1.1 million in the West by the end of March 2010 in order to meet their 2 million unit predictions, and I'm having a hard time seeing that happening.

You have an hour glass that can see through the future? How long has this game been out a week and a half?

 

[markatisu]

Of course it's not bad but MGS4 has the benefit of being a 4 million+ selling game. They can expend more on marketing.

Keep in mind Capcom did not pay for all the advertising/marketing for MH3 either, Nintendo helped them just as they helped Square with DQIX

I think an adjustment in 1st shipments will be the only thing to change when (not if) MH tops out between 900-1.1m LTD

 

[donny2112]

Though I doubt it will enjoy the same international success that MGS4 did.

How do international sales impact the amount spent on Japanese marketing?

Edit:
Beaten by schulema. :lol

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

You have an hour glass that can see through the future? How long has this game been out a week and a half?

Just about three weeks. The game isn't going to magically pull up from its downward descent or anything. I think 900k is a pretty fair estimate at this point.

 

[Spiegel]

Does the Japanese marketing budget really have to do that much with the international sales expectations? I guess the logic is that it is ok to spend a crapload on Japanese marketing because it will make so much money elsewhere?

Exactly

But let's not take more time discussing this because we know nothing about marketing budgets. It was just a guess.

MH3 has online fees though.

You're right.

 

[schuelma]

Just about three weeks. The game isn't going to magically pull up from its downward descent or anything. I think 900k is a pretty fair estimate at this point.

Yeah. Barring a great hold next week I don't think it gets there. Sales tend to drop pretty rapidly.

 

[poppabk]

Of course it's not bad but MGS4 has the benefit of being a 4 million+ selling game. They can expend more on marketing.

But unless the Japanese market is some kind of loss leader for games, we can probably assume that the level of marketing for MGS4 is sustainable with sales of ~700k unless konami took a bath in Japan on that game. If the top 2 selling 3rd party games on consoles in japan were both financial failures in that market then there are major problems.

 

[Segata Sanshiro]

How do international sales impact the amount spent on Japanese marketing?

Edit:
Beaten by schulema. :lol

Spiegal was the one specifically talking about the marketing. I, on the other hand, am throwing out non-sequitars.

You'll find my frozen entree in your grocer's freezer. Oh, and these other guys too.

 

[donny2112]

MH3 has online fees though.

Which Capcom won't start seeing for another 10 days. Of course in the long view, these first 20 days of no online fees could be pretty insignificant to Capcom.

 

[Xeke]

Ye, you are right, the DS Phat sales were pretty impressive in the end of 2005 indeed, i wasnt aware of that, so thanks for mentioning this! But after checking at Garaph.info, i see that it was not until the DS Lite was released that the DS was selling over 100k systems a week for week after week for about 1.5 year in a row (with some expections, in the 78 weeks from the DS Lite launch, only 6 week of those weeks had DS Lite hardware sales under 100k). EDIT: These numbers are based on the Media Create numbers at Garaph.info. Based on the Famitsu numbers, only 3 weeks out of those 78 weeks were under 100k, and one of these 3 weeks were almost 100k (99,740 to be precise)

It might have been a bit of a "coincidence" (or what i shall say) that the DS Lite was released shortly after (about 3 months) the end of 2005 when the DS sold really well. If the DS Lite wasnt released, maybe the DS Phat would have sold over 100k a week for week after week as well just like the DS Lite did?

But the DS Lite color was white in general (i think so at least?), and many people bought it. I just wanted to mention that i personally dont think that a color of a gaming system matters that much, at least when the colors are either black, white or grey. I do belive that the color of a gaming system might have some affect on the sales though, but as long as a gaming system have interesting games and a good pricetag, i think that this is the most important thing to people in general, but that is just my opinion

The DS phat would have easily sold 100k a week but the supply wasn't there from holiday 2005 onward.

 

[RpgN]

I'm kind of confused. Wasn't it tracked for only 2 days and thus should have had a stronger second week? It seems as if it didn't matter if it would be tracked for 4 days or less. Would it had got over 700k first week and sold horrible on the second week if it was tracked for 4 days?

Blood of Bahamut :/ We're not going to see that one here anymore it seems. But it should be more accessible than Sigma Harmonis :/