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[duckroll]

So the NSMBwii numbers won't be in the next Media Create will they?

[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 40k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 80k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 15k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 1.6m
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 23k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 42k

Erm. I dunno if you're serious, but I think you might as well not bother with predictions ever again if you are.

 

[Chris1964]

No, but we'll get first day sales on friday if nothing goes wrong.

And 99% Monday morning Famitsu will give us a special report for NSMBWii first week sales.

 

[slaughterking]

Yep, even though that's a very significant 1%. Famitsu likes to be a bitch sometimes. :I

 

[Aru]

My take for the predictions:

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 25k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 220k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 175k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 20k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 800k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 90k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 100k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 70k

 

[Spiegel]

On December 24, Capcom will release a cheaper version of Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G best for 2100 Y.

They really want to sell 4 million

 

[Stumpokapow]

Erm. I dunno if you're serious, but I think you might as well not bother with predictions ever again if you are.

Looking at the username / avatar / predictions combo, I think we both know that he was being serious.

 

[Hero of Legend]

I'm not sure if anyone bothered to do this in the thread, but I gathered the 1st Week totals for the previous Samurai Warriors games:

PS2:

Samurai Warriors 11/02/2004 620.893
Samurai Warriors: Xtreme Legends 16/09/2004 190.358
Samurai Warriors 2 24/02/2006 301.044
Samurai Warriors 2 Empires 16/11/2006 89.805
Samurai Warriors 2: Xtreme Legends 23/08/2007 175.598

360:

Samurai Warriors 2 17/08/2006 (1st Week N/A, but the LTD shows 4.929)
Samurai Warriors 2: Xtreme Legends 19/03/2008 2.175

These are from Japan Game Charts which sources Famitsu, and the Xbox section wasn't active.

 

[schuelma]

Erm. I dunno if you're serious, but I think you might as well not bother with predictions ever again if you are.

I thought you were just talking about NSMB Wii which is a lot higher than what I predicted but then I noticed his other predictions :lol

 

[oldie-newbie]

To make easier predictions, Famitsu review scores:


[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 35/40
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 34/40
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 34/40
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 33/40
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 40/40
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 34/40
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 34/40
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 36/40

http://www.nintendoeverything.com/28444/


and also, Tales of Grace got 36/40 from Famitsu

http://tales.namco.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=76347&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=6570

and some other scores:

[PS3/360] Modern Warfare 2 – 39/40
[Wii] Winning Eleven Play Maker 2010 – 35/40
[PSP] Winning Eleven 2010 – 29/40
[Wii] Toshinden – 23/40

 

[gkryhewy]

Really looking forward to comparing ToG's performance to ToV PS3.

 

[schuelma]

Really looking forward to comparing ToG's performance to ToV PS3.

I think it will start lower but could/should equal or better it in the long run. Will be interesting.

 

[onken]

8 set woo.

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 50k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 400k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 200k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 35k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 500k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 100k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) 30k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 60k
[360] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 15k

PS3 Total - 540k
WII Total - 530k

 

[schuelma]

[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 500k

One of us is going to be very right and one of us is going to be very wrong.

 

[onken]

One of us is going to be very right and one of us is going to be very wrong.

What's a few hundred k between friends

e~ it's going to end up 800k isn't it

 

[schuelma]

What's a few hundred k between friends

e~ it's going to end up 800k isn't it

I predicted a million plus. I might be crazy..should be fun though. Really interesting month all around.

 

[onken]

I predicted a million plus. I might be crazy..should be fun though. Really interesting month all around.

Yep. Sales figures are the gift that keeps on giving except not really.

 

[Spiegel]

schuelma, is "The Nippon Sales Age" blog yours?
Just found it googling for comgnet numbers and was very helpful

 

[schuelma]

schuelma, is "The Nippon Sales Age" blog yours?
Just found it googling for comgnet numbers and was very helpful

yep. I needed an outlet for my Japanese sales OCD. I'm going to start trying to do more daily Comgnet stuff for PSP and PS3 software. Right now its pretty Wii focused as you can see (shocker I know).

 

[Chris1964]

Next week predictions:

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 40k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 240k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 270k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 35k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 900k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 90k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 50k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 45k

Hardware:
WII: 650k
PS3: 500k

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

*Sparkles*Predictions*Sparkles*

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 48,000
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 437,000
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 232,000
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 44,000
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 875,000
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 96,000
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 41,000
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 57,000

PS3 - 425000
WII - 475000

 

[-WindYoshi-]

Erm. I dunno if you're serious, but I think you might as well not bother with predictions ever again if you are.

I assume no one here has ever watched LOST?

Looking at the username / avatar / predictions combo, I think we both know that he was being serious.

:lol

 

[jay]

*Sparkles*Predictions*Sparkles*

Are you a vampire?

 

[u_neek]

Did we get any preorder numbers for the big releases, mainly NSMB and FFXIII?

For what it's worth, FFXIII is back on top on the Amazon Japan top 100..

 

[schuelma]

Did we get any preorder numbers for the big releases, mainly NSMB and FFXIII?

I think the closest we have are Famitsu's latest predictions which seem to be pretty good at judging initial shipments:

(Wii) New Super Mario Bros. : 1,03-1,29M / 2,50M or more
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M

 

[onken]

Did we get any preorder numbers for the big releases, mainly NSMB and FFXIII?

For what it's worth, FFXIII is back on top on the Amazon Japan top 100..

FF13 already beat FF12's pre-order numbers a week or two back, but we don't have a number on FF12 pre-orders so it's not too helpful. NSMB is looking good on Comgnet but again we don't know exact numbers.

 

[duckroll]

I predicted a million plus. I might be crazy..should be fun though. Really interesting month all around.

I think a million plus is going to be hard to get, but I'm going with 900k anyway because I have a gut feeling the hype and season will result in it starting higher than the DS game. But I also feel that because of the nature of a console, it'll have less legs than the DS game, and might end up with a lower LTD at the end.

 

[Chris1964]

and might end up with a lower LTD at the end.

Have no doubt for that. It will be a a major success if it does the half of the DS game.

 

[schuelma]

I think a million plus is going to be hard to get, but I'm going with 900k anyway because I have a gut feeling the hype and season will result in it starting higher than the DS game. But I also feel that because of the nature of a console, it'll have less legs than the DS game, and might end up with a lower LTD at the end.

I think a lower LTD is almost a certainty. Fortunately for Nintendo that LTD is so high it could do a portion of it and still be the Wii's highest selling game.

 

[iifu]

Predictions:

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 30k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 230k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 270k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 30k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 870k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 120k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 60k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 40k

 

[donny2112]

I have smaller software LTD because I don't update the LTD of a game if I don't know the exact date the update took place. This means no geocities site.

I just check the geocities site enough to be able to make educated guesses (that can sometimes be confirmed externally) about what an unusual batch of games' LTDs are through. There are LTDs on the geocities site that were there before I started regularly checking it that I haven't updated my database with because I don't know when they're through, though.

Predictions
[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 60K
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 250K
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 240K
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 50K
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 900K
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 100K
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 120K
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 40K

Hardware:
WII: 650K
PS3: 475K

 

[ilbambino]

Predictions:

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 70K
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 220K
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 220K
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 40K
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 570K
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 80K
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 80K
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 50K

Hardware:
WII: 450K
PS3: 550K

 

[cvxfreak]

I think it's important to also remember that NSMB and DS Lite hardware were supply constrained at release over three years ago. Wii isn't constrained and I doubt NSMB Wii will either. I also believe the current Wii userbase is bigger than the DS's was back then.

 

[schuelma]

I think it's important to also remember that NSMB and DS Lite hardware were supply constrained at release over three years ago. Wii isn't constrained and I doubt NSMB Wii will either. I also believe the current Wii userbase is bigger than the DS's was back then.

I was going to ask- did NSMB DS almost sell out its first week? Going through the old thread, it did 480K first day and then only 380K the rest of the week which seems low for a Nintendo title.

 

[cvxfreak]

I was going to ask- did NSMB DS almost sell out its first week? Going through the old thread, it did 480K first day and then only 380K the rest of the week which seems low for a Nintendo title.

I believe it did, but I wasn't in Japan at the time so I can't say 100%. But it probably was. Not as badly as FFIII, but I don't doubt it sold out constantly for weeks if not months.

 

[thestopsign]

I was going to ask- did NSMB DS almost sell out its first week? Going through the old thread, it did 480K first day and then only 380K the rest of the week which seems low for a Nintendo title.

The first shipment was ~900k IIRC. The game sold ~900k. They either shipped a bit more or were completely sold out.

 

[duckroll]

I like how the Pokepark predictions are all just wild guesses. There's nothing to reference, and there's no indication of how much retailer interest there is, so the numbers are all wildly different and random. :lol

 

[schuelma]

I like how the Pokepark predictions are all just wild guesses. There's nothing to reference, and there's no indication of how much retailer interest there is, so the numbers are all wildly different and random. :lol

Yeah there is really nothing there..who knows. Still think its odd its getting a Saturday release as well.

 

[Chris1964]

I was going to ask- did NSMB DS almost sell out its first week? Going through the old thread, it did 480K first day and then only 380K the rest of the week which seems low for a Nintendo title.

According to Media Create

1 . [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 899.518 / 899.518 - 78,45%

Sellthrough 78,45%. It didn't sell out its first week.

 

[AnimeTheme]

So the NSMBwii numbers won't be in the next Media Create will they?

[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 40k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 80k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 15k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 1.6m
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 23k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 42k

You are joking with these numbers ain't you?

 

[Grampasso]

I think a million plus is going to be hard to get, but I'm going with 900k anyway because I have a gut feeling the hype and season will result in it starting higher than the DS game. But I also feel that because of the nature of a console, it'll have less legs than the DS game, and might end up with a lower LTD at the end.

Yeah I agree. They'll have to deal with only 3.5-4 milions instead of 5.5 :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

According to Media Create

1 . [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 899.518 / 899.518 - 78,45%

Sellthrough 78,45%. It didn't sell out its first week.

I stand corrected.

 

[jesusraz]

According to Media Create

1 . [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 899.518 / 899.518 - 78,45%

Sellthrough 78,45%. It didn't sell out its first week.

I'm pretty sure the initial announced shipment was about 800,000, but Nintendo made a second shipment very quickly to meet demand.

 

[Grampasso]

I'm pretty sure the initial announced shipment was about 800,000, but Nintendo made a second shipment very quickly to meet demand.

That would explain the kinda "low" sales in the first weekend compared to first day

 

[Road]

PREDICTIONS:

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 49,000
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 389,000
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 219,000
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 39,000
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 909,000
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 89,000
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 29,000
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 49,000

PS3 - 500,000
WII - 600,000

 

[thestopsign]

Just under two days until D-Day.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I think a million plus is going to be hard to get, but I'm going with 900k anyway because I have a gut feeling the hype and season will result in it starting higher than the DS game. But I also feel that because of the nature of a console, it'll have less legs than the DS game, and might end up with a lower LTD at the end.

Maybe. Or maybe not. I remain skeptical.

 

[test_account]

Famitsu.com has posted the Top 10 now

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1230184_1796.html

 

[king zell]

beaten

 

[test_account]

One of us is going to be very right and one of us is going to be very wrong.

There might be a small chance that both of you might be pretty much equally right If the New Super Mario Bros Wii sales numbers is at around 750k, then both of you will be about 250k off, which is about equally right for both of you

 

[sphinx]

Famitsu.com has posted the Top 10 now

http://www.famitsu.com/game/rank/sokuho/1230184_1796.html

can someone please translate?