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[jj984jj]

The DS has a fairly barren holiday release schedule by the looks of it. I can only see Zelda: Spirit Tracks, another Luminous Arc game, another Hitman Reborn game, Power Pro Kun, and then from the GameFAQs list I all the other games are in Japanese so I can't really tell if there are any other notable releases. 3rd parties didn't really supply much of anything for the holidays this year. I can see Inazuma Eleven picking up a lot of holiday sales though (and Tomadatchi and Pokemon).

But I wanted to predict how bad Cross Treasures is going to bomba.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

Kaiju Busters... isn't that the MH clone? Could do good numbers.
It would probably be more interesting to predict these kind of games rather than the millionth Power Pro Kun, I would guess.

And reposting my prediction of NSMBWii I made more than a month back:

My prediction for NSMBWii
FW: 800k
LTD: 3.6m

Can't see it selling less than 2.5m, worst case scenario.

LTD would be in 2013 or 2014 when it stops selling...

 

[thestopsign]

But I wanted to predict how bad Cross Treasures is going to bomba.

If marketed right, that could hit the Jump Super Stars series audience. We all know that it isn't going to be advertised right though. I predict something in the 20-30k range first week.

Edit: Kaiju Busters seems to be a wild card. Could do very well though.

 

[duckroll]

If marketed right, that could hit the Jump Super Stars series audience.

Why on earth would it? Wut?

 

[jj984jj]

Kaiju Busters... isn't that the MH clone? Could do good numbers.
It would probably be more interesting to predict these kind of games rather than the millionth Power Pro Kun, I would guess.

If marketed right, that could hit the Jump Super Stars series audience. We all know that it isn't going to be advertised right though. I predict something in the 20-30k range first week.

Edit: Kaiju Busters seems to be a wild card. Could do very well though.

Nah, not really. I doubt Kaiju will sell more than 10k, but since he included Assassin's Creed II I was like, "Why no more DS games?"

Oh well, next time.

 

[duckroll]

Kaiju will do way way way more than 10k. Seriously.

 

[jj984jj]

Kaiju will do way way way more than 10k. Seriously.

Really? There's interest for it? I thought it would do just as bad as that Element Hunter game.

 

[duckroll]

Really? There's interest for it? I thought it would do just as bad as that Element Hunter game.

Ultraman > anime. I doubt the game will be a huge hit, but it's certainly not 10k territory.

 

[jj984jj]

Ultraman > anime. I doubt the game will be a huge hit, but it's certainly not 10k territory.

Well then add it to the "why not include it?" pile. I know the DS has no expected 100k+ first week sellers beyond Zelda this holiday, but clearly we're not only predicting 100k+ sellers for December.

 

[thestopsign]

Why on earth would it? Wut?

Hmm... I did a quick overview of an article on Siliconera and assumed that it was an RPG with a bunch of popular anime characters woven in. Seems like it has at least some selling potential. I may have read that wrong though.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Nah, not really. I doubt Kaiju will sell more than 10k, but since he included Assassin's Creed II, I was like, "why no more DS games?" Oh well, nvm.

Honestly, I looked at the other DS games and nothing stood out other than Pawapoke 12. Anyway that's why I ask people before throwing out what to predict. I thought about 6 at first, and here people said that Pokemon could also do reasonably well, hence I then said that I could include it and Creed 2 (which sold 37k first week on PS3 on late January despite a 2 month exclusivity on 360, outselling it, and there's a good showing of Creed 2 in amazon, comgnet, lepton...). All that was before giving out the selected titles.

 

[Road]

Kurosagi Ichigo did ask for ideas on what to predict. No one spoke anything, so here we are.

But, since we're speaking about DS games, one that sort of flew under our radar was Stitch! Ohana to Rhythm de Daibouken, which has more pre-orders points on COMGNET now than Assassins Creed II, Powerful Pro Kun 12, Tokimeki Memorial 4, PokePark or that Kaiju Busters.

Edit: and he beat me to explain why the selected titles. hehe

 

[jj984jj]

I guess I missed that post yesterday. Like I said, oh well. There's no real point in changing it now for some more minor sellers.

My predictions:
[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) 50k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) 290k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) 265k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) 60k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) 750k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) 145k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) 50k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) 40k

PS3 Total - 571,716
WII Total - 548,567

 

[DR2K]

You guys have really high expectations for NSMBwii. :lol

 

[gerg]

What did NSMB sell in its first week, by the way?

 

[Regulus Tera]

You guys have really high expectations for NSMBwii. :lol

After NSMB for DS? Not really.

What did NSMB sell in its first week, by the way?

Gamasutra says it sold 899,518 units in its first four days.

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

What did NSMB sell in its first week, by the way?

865,024 (famitsu)
http://garaph.info/softwareindividual.php//gid/241

 

[Dash Kappei]

Awesome, now bring it to the USA

:lol

That was a prediction.

 

[schuelma]

Yeah Stitch will be an interesting game to watch.

 

[Kandinsky]

I really wanted FFCB to fail, but wow.

 

[duckroll]

Hmm... I did a quick overview of an article on Siliconera and assumed that it was an RPG with a bunch of popular anime characters woven in. Seems like it has at least some selling potential. I may have read that wrong though.

It's.... not a licensed game. It's a RPG where readers of V Jump sent in hundreds of ideas and suggestions, including monster designs and weapon designs or whatever. And they included a bunch of the ideas into the game. The character designs are by an artist who draws for V Jump, but they're all original generic charcters.

What on earth gives anyone any idea that a game like that would do well. :lol

 

[schuelma]

You guys have really high expectations for NSMBwii. :lol

Wait until you see my guesses :lol

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

So pretty much every system is doing worse than every system it's being compared to--good job, Japan! (The sole exception being PS3 beating the pants off 2005 Gamecube, hardly a feat.)

It's kind of an unavoidable flaw for a direct comparison that even among similarly-performing systems, most weeks it will look that way. Due to holidays/bumps a majority of sales come from a minority of weeks, so we get situations where System A might spend most of the year only seeming to slowly progress through System B's December/January, but when System A hits its own December/January it will then seem to make huge progress.

SSB shows the normal core series progression of getting more and more front-loaded as the series goes on.

Not that I disagree with this, but a second factor is that Melee might as well have been a launch game. Surely it would've been more front-loaded if it had released when GCN had a userbase of more than half a million, rather than itself being a major cause for much of those first-year hardware sales.

 

[DR2K]

After NSMB for DS? Not really.

DS = Wii? How well did Animal Crossing do on the Wii compared to the DS version? How well did MH3 do compared to MH2 on the PSP? Comparing the Wii to the portables is not fair.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

:lol

That was a prediction.

Regardless, I hope we get PSP2 in the states.

 

[m.i.s.]

You guys have really high expectations for NSMBwii. :lol

Seeing that it launches Dec 3rd, when will we get the opening sales figures for J-land?

It's been awfully quiet with respect to US / EU launch figures for NSMB Wii. I'd have thought NOA / NOE would want to shout the opening days sales from the rooftops - considering it's Nintendo's Xmas '09 flagship title.

 

[cvxfreak]

DS = Wii? How well did Animal Crossing do on the Wii compared to the DS version? How well did MH3 do compared to MH2 on the PSP? Comparing the Wii to the portables is not fair.

Mario Kart Wii has so far sold 67% of Mario Kart DS. Mario Party 8 sold 71% of Mario Party DS.

If NSMB Wii did the same thing, it would sell between 3,700,000 and 3,929,000.

 

[m.i.s.]

slightly offtopic

NSMB Wii debuts at No 3 in UK-land - behind MW2 and AC2.

http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110016

Source: Chart Track

 

[cw_sasuke]

slightly offtopic

NSMB Wii debuts at No 3 in UK-land - behind MW2 and AC2.

http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index.jsp?c=p/software/uk/latest/index_test.jsp&ct=110016

Source: Chart Track

...so what ?

 

[Osuwari]

DS = Wii? How well did Animal Crossing do on the Wii compared to the DS version? How well did MH3 do compared to MH2 on the PSP? Comparing the Wii to the portables is not fair.

didn't ACWW have a lower opening than ACCF? same with MKDS and MKWii?

NSMBWii could have a higher first day/week than the DS version but a lower LTD.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Mario Kart Wii has so far sold 67% of Mario Kart DS. Mario Party 8 sold 71% of Mario Party DS.

If NSMB Wii did the same thing, it would sell between 3,700,000 and 3,929,000.

what about Animal Crossing ?

Spoiler

sarcastic

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Yeah, you can find examples going any way. When some transition comes we're always wondering which examples of the past are most analogous. Animal Crossing? Mario Kart? Mosnter Hunter? Gran Turismo? Dragon Quest?

didn't ACWW have a lower opening than ACCF? same with MKDS and MKWii?

The Animal Crossings started off pretty much even.

Mario Kart Wii had the much bigger start, though, even without a December launch. It's still ahead for its age, but it's looking like it will fall behind.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

This post is a Best rerelease of the above post.

 

[duckroll]

This post is a Best rerelease of the above post.

Awesome, I wasn't sold on it the first time because it was a little pricey, but I'll bite this time! :lol

 

[Chris1964]

Just finished with the Famitsu data of Wii. I have created weekly, monthly, half-year, year and LTD rankings. I used every available number I found (exact and rounded). The geocities site has around 10 games with more up to date numbers, but since I don’t know the date these updates took place I haven’t included these numbers. Either way we talk for a <10K difference per game from what I have and for the bottom games of the list, so not a big deal.

As of the week ending 15/11/09 I have 246 Wii games with the total software being 33.397.818. Is there anyone else with Famitsu database who has something different from that?

I can post the LTD rankings if you want to see them.
Next: PS3

 

[Captain Smoker]

Just finished with the Famitsu data of Wii. I have created weekly, monthly, half-year, year and LTD rankings. I used every available number I found (exact and rounded). The geocities site has around 10 games with more up to date numbers, but since I don’t know the date these updates took place I haven’t included these numbers. Either way we talk for a <10K difference per game from what I have and for the bottom games of the list, so not a big deal.

As of the week ending 15/11/09 I have 246 Wii games with the total software being 33.397.818. Is there anyone else with Famitsu database who has something different from that?

I can post the LTD rankings if you want to see them.
Next: PS3

I have 252 games and 33.844.060 units.

 

[Chris1964]

I have 252 games and 33.844.060 units.

That's a big difference with total software. Are you sure about the date? (15/11/09) I haven't included this week's Famitsu leak.

 

[Deleted member 30609]

nice to see the GOTY make an appearance

 

[Rolf NB]

nice to see the GOTY make an appearance

Which one?

Spoiler

Boo for the cheap tease, and congratulations on the working tease.

 

[kswiston]

Predictions:

December Hardware:
Wii: 523,500
PS3: 464,800

I think that Wii sales will start out strong next month, but will be dampened in the last two weeks of December by people getting sucked into the FFXIII hype and subsequently choosing a PS3 instead. However, I still think Wii will win the month.

December 6th Software:
[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 35k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 190k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 185k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 65k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 790k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 70k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) 40k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 65k

 

[schuelma]

Seeing that it launches Dec 3rd, when will we get the opening sales figures for J-land?.

Hopefully we will get 1st day figures by Friday morning the 4th.

 

[Orgen]

Predictions

[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) 60k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) 235k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) 240k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) 55k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) 755k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) 150k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) 40k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) 50k

PS3 Total - 512,826
WII Total - 557,312

 

[duckroll]

Predictions
[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 50k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 250k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 290k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 45k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 900k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 90k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 50k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 50k
[360] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 40k

I suspect I'm going to get raped hard, because I don't really feel confident about a lot of the numbers. I reserve the right to change them later in the week, before the first day numbers are in.

 

[schuelma]

I don't know if this will be of help or not, but just for a bit of context, the approximate 5 week numbers for the consoles last year:

Wii- 535K

PS3- 209K

Obviously the PS3 number probably isn't that relevant given the difference in the console this year, but it might be somewhat helpful for the Wii.

 

[charlequin]

DS = Wii? How well did Animal Crossing do on the Wii compared to the DS version?

It's really hard for me to read this argument without leaping immediately to the conclusion that you're just being disingenuous.

 

[Captain Smoker]

That's a big difference with total software. Are you sure about the date? (15/11/09) I haven't included this week's Famitsu leak.

Ah, I've overlooked the 15/11/09. My data includes this weeks Famitsu leak, too.

 

[gerg]

Predictions:

December Hardware:
Wii: 523,500
PS3: 464,800

I think that Wii sales will start out strong next month, but will be dampened in the last two weeks of December by people getting sucked into the FFXIII hype and subsequently choosing a PS3 instead. However, I still think Wii will win the month.

I really doubt that this will occur.

"I'm really excited for that new 2D Mario game that I can play with all my non-gaming friends and family! No wait, I'm actually really excited for that new, single player traditional RPG by Square-Enix!"

 

[Chris1964]

Ah, I've overlooked the 15/11/09. My data includes this weeks Famitsu leak, too.

I also made a mistake. This is what happens when I doublecheck my data. As of the week ending 15/11/09 I have 246 Wii games with the total software being 33.380.600. If I exclude this week leaked numbers you have 3 games more than me (probably some older games outside the top 30 I missed) and ~350K bigger software total.

 

[schuelma]

I really doubt that this will occur.

"I'm really excited for that new 2D Mario game that I can play with all my non-gaming friends and family! No wait, I'm actually really excited for that new, single player traditional RPG by Square-Enix!"

Right. Even though we're doing the whole December prediction thing, I tend to think of both consoles sales potential as largely independent of the others.

 

[u_neek]

What the hell..
[NDS] Powerful Pro-Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 40k
[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) - 190k
[PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam Vs. Gundam Next Plus (Namco Bandai) - 200k
[PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 40k
[WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 500k
[WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 70k
[WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Great Adventure (Pokemon Co.) - 30k
[PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 60k
[360] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 30k

PS3: 500k
Wii: 450k