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[Busaiku]

I wonder if New Super Mario Bros can make it into the top 10 again during the week of the Wii game.

 

[donny2112]

So, anybody know what game took a number 1 spot the longest time after release (not counting best etc.)?

I haven't checked, but I'd hazard a guess that it was Pokemon R/B/G. It was on the charts for almost 4 years, so it might've snuck in a #1 ranking in a slow week in years 2 or 3.

 

[Road]

Anyone got a hunch to what LTD Steins; Gate has crept?

Two weeks ago it was 30k according to a MC leak. Should close to 35k as of the last week.

It's possibly the 360 game that has spent more time on the MC Top 50, except maybe from some bundled games.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Mmmh... I doubt it could have a bigger opening week... could it? Based on M-create numbers NSMB DS sold 899k on release... 1M+ on first week @_@ I just don't buy that. And I bet for shorter legs =)

No complete argument here, but a few "Why it wouldn't be killer shocking" bits:

Most of us are expecting a console with a much smaller userbase to pull off a 1 million+ software start within the month.

Wii's userbase is now a few hundred thousand past where DS was when NSMB released.

SSBB's 800K opening week is Wii's biggest yet, but the userbase has grown by 70% since then.

You really think the Wii version could be constantly charting in the top 30/50 in 3 years from now? Or maybe I misunderstood you

Well, NSMB was only a frequent presence in the Top 30 through September 2008. Buuut yeah, I find it hard to believe a Wii version can match the DS's later performance.

Also, hasn't Taiko been a declining IP?

Looking at the PS2 versions over the years? Sure. But the DS games and the first Wii one are three of the four biggest games in the series.

Just looking at the last three lines there, seems all three of those games started at about 100K.

Josh you spelt Jak & Daxter 2 as Jax & Daxter 2.

Changed. Though I guess it should just be Jak 2, shouldn't it?

Is it possible Nintendo doesn't care about Japan because in relation to world sales it's doing nothing but shrinking?

Or is it possible the Japanese market appears to be shrinking so much because they've relatively bungled the Wii? Things would look a bit different over there if it accounted for a quarter of total Wii sales as is the case with DS.

 

[Hammer24]

Two weeks ago it was 30k according to a MC leak. Should close to 35k as of the last week.

It's possibly the 360 game that has spent more time on the MC Top 50, except maybe from some bundled games.

Thx! And yes, it should have that record now, even compared to bundled games.

 

[Road]

[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX - 1.6k

That's it. From now on I'm gonna predict 0 for some Wii games. Anything else is too risky.

 

[Torhthelm Tídwald]

I haven't checked, but I'd hazard a guess that it was Pokemon R/B/G. It was on the charts for almost 4 years, so it might've snuck in a #1 ranking in a slow week in years 2 or 3.

What about just for this generation? I can name a few likely candidates, but I'm don't know enough SQL to do a search at garaph.info or anything. I've checked Wii Fit and NSMB and they don't have it beat.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

SSBB's 800K opening week is Wii's biggest yet, but the userbase has grown by 70% since then.

Well, NSMB was only a frequent presence in the Top 30 through September 2008. Buuut yeah, I find it hard to believe a Wii version can match the DS's later performance.

Wii's hype was completely destroyed this year and the level of hype around the game is way behind NSMB for the DS. I find it hard for the game to sell 500k in its first week, honestly.

 

[Road]

What about just for this generation? I can name a few likely candidates, but I'm don't know enough SQL to do a search at garaph.info or anything. I've checked Wii Fit and NSMB and they don't have it beat.

Pokemon Diamond / Pearl has 8 consecutive weeks at no. 1, 9 in total.

I just went to check that particular game too.

 

[duckroll]

For what it's worth, I actually saw Ponyo in Japanese theaters last year, and the people in there didn't look like the types I'd associate as being anime types. If anything, Ponyo attracts a very casual crowd.

Yes, Ghibli's audience in Japan is not the "anime audience" which is WHY it does so much better in comparison with a popular anime, say Gundam. The actual anime audience is pretty small in Japan, and as a result (or maybe because of that, vicious cycle basically) the prices are ridiculously high. This is unacceptable for anything which wants to really break into serious mainstream sales.

This is why blu-ray anime sales in Japan are higher than DVD sales now, because people who buy them are generally collectors and rabid fans with a lot of money to spend, and given the choice between spending 60 bucks on 2 episodes, and 70 bucks on 2 episode in HD, the decision isn't a hard one at all.

 

[Torhthelm Tídwald]

Pokemon Diamond / Pearl has 8 consecutive weeks at no. 1, 9 in total.

I just went to check that particular game too.

I meant that Friend Collection got number one a long time from release. It is on week 22. The closest I've seen for this gen is Brain Age/ Brain Age 2/ Animal Crossing, which each got a number one on week 16. Of course, this isn't any kind of scientific/rigorous study, it's just me looking up random games and counting. :lol

 

[Chris1964]

Pokemon Diamond / Pearl has 8 consecutive weeks at no. 1, 9 in total.

I just went to check that particular game too.

Just from memory I think that Diamond / Pearl has the record this generation.

 

[Road]

I meant that Friend Collection got number one a long time from release.

Oh, my bad. I misunderstood.

Shouldn't read GAF at 6 am... :|

 

[Torhthelm Tídwald]

It's understandable. I'm barely coherent right now anyway.

 

[Nirolak]

You know, I was noticing something. While we still have quite a few major releases to go, it seems that this year we will end up with sales being far more concentrated into just a few titles at the top than they were last year. It'll be interesting to compare what percentage of total software sales from 2009 are represented by the top 10 titles versus what percentage of total software sales from 2008 are represented by the top 10 titles. Perhaps repeating it for the top 20 would be even more interesting as well.

In case I'm just crazy though and this is how it always looks before December, this is the disparity I think I'm noticing:

2008: http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?t...meid=&orderby=SalesLTD+DESC&res1=&res2=&opt=1
2009: http://garaph.info/gamesearch.php?t...meid=&orderby=SalesLTD+DESC&res1=&res2=&opt=1

 

[Grampasso]

No complete argument here, but a few "Why it wouldn't be killer shocking" bits:

Most of us are expecting a console with a much smaller userbase to pull off a 1 million+ software start within the month.

Wii's userbase is now a few hundred thousand past where DS was when NSMB released.

You're right, I was mislead by the fact that home console Mario iterations have been declining, or we may say the whole main series has been declining even on portable systems, but that was the case until NSMB hit DS. For some reason I thought that was some kind of "exception" to the rule, especially since SMG wasn't so great in Japan, and that its success couldn't be repeated on a home console due to the different philosophy behind it. What I didn't consider is that although Wii/DS general targets are quite different as machines, the 2 games though sharing the same name feel very different when you get to play both of them, and I understood this thing only playing the Wii one.
I caught myself wondering where a coin I was missing could be in the first world while I wasn't playing, and I got that pleasant sensation of challenge I usually feel in Zelda games when I have to reach a particular chest, so I realized how much different the Wii version is compared to the DS one, and I'm really glad about it!

SSBB's 800K opening week is Wii's biggest yet, but the userbase has grown by 70% since then.

Yes, I guess 1.1-1.2 milions on first week wouldn't be so hazardous to predict at this point. And I can't even imagine how much the sales would be sustained through december. 2+M at the end of the year would be definitely feasible IMHO

 

[Chris1964]

Wii's hype was completely destroyed this year and the level of hype around the game is way behind NSMB for the DS. I find it hard for the game to sell 500k in its first week, honestly.

Do you live in Japan and know that or are you guessing?

 

[[Nintex]]

I think the biggest problem that Nintendo has is(well if you could call it a problem...) that the Wii and DS are going for the same market. I get the feeling that the DS is eating the Wii's lunch(sales) and drinking its milkshake(third party support).

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

What about just for this generation? I can name a few likely candidates, but I'm don't know enough SQL to do a search at garaph.info or anything. I've checked Wii Fit and NSMB and they don't have it beat.

I tinkered with this, and asked for a list of games in the database that got #1 more than 100 days after release. Here's what I got:

Famicom Mini: Super Mario Bros.
Release Date: 2004-02-14
#1: Week starting 2005-09-26
This has been noticed before as a weird case. It's like a really successful Best rerelease... but it was apparently just the same SKU.

The others are nowhere near as far out, but are more normal cases, without it seeming like a product relaunch. Also all 2005 DS games.

Brain Age
Release Date: 2005-05-19
#1: Week starting 2005-09-05

Animal Crossing: Wild World
Release Date: 2005-11-23
#1: Week starting 2006-03-06

Brain Age 2
Release Date: 2005-12-29
#1: Week starting 2006-04-03 and week starting 2006-04-10


SQL to play with:

SELECT TitleEnglish, SoftwareInfo.GameID, datediff(date_add(Week, interval 6 day) , ReleaseDate) as Since
FROM SoftwareInfo,SoftwareWeekly
WHERE SoftwareInfo.GameID = SoftwareWeekly.GameID
AND Rank = 1
AND datediff(date_add(Week, interval 6 day) , ReleaseDate)>100
ORDER BY Since DESC

You know, I was noticing something. While we still have quite a few major releases to go, it seems that this year we will end up with sales being far more concentrated into just a few titles at the top than they were last year.

I guess new multi-million Dragon Quest and Pokémon releases go a long way toward that.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Now this is more like it, only 2ch first day sales left. Catch-up nearly done.

First Day Sales (11/19)
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii 2 - SA 9,800 (8%) / BE 4,200 (3%)

Good god, Namco sure aimed at the 500k.
122,5k for the stand alone Taiko 2 and 140k for Taiko 2 with drums, >260k shipped first day.
It needs to do 9 times its first week sales to sell that shipment. 18 times its first day sales.

NamcoBandai-branded overshipment at its best. Gundam OYW, Tales of the Tempest and such would be proud.

First Day Sales (11/26)

[NDS] Layton Kyouju to Majin no Fue - 140k
Well, that's a sizable decrease year over year, entry over entry. Although last year Layton 3 did less than Layton 2 first day but it managed to offset that in the weekend by a good chunk. Layton 2 did 1,56 times its first day for the week, Layton 3 did 2 times its first day for the week. If Layton 4 were to repeat that ranges, it'd fall between 220k and 280k.

[WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010 - 23k
Now, this is actually fairly ok. The DS Momotaros started with 22k and 28k, the first one eventually reaching 367k and the second 295k.Its all about legs as you can see, on PS2 and DS its been hovering with 250k-350k LTDs (PS2 first week were higher though). You have to go back to 2001-2002 to see the first two PS2 Momotaros title doing ~500k. On 1997, Momotaro 7 on PS did 675k (EDIT: Actually 785k with budget re-releases). I'd love to see Momotaro 1-6 sales (they exist?)

[PSP] La Pucelle: Ragnarok - 5.8k
Pretty poor, like everything from NI on PSP that isn't Disgaea. Seems like a bad trend given they have some more non-Disgaea PSP games in the oven.

[PSP] Higurashi Daybreak Portable: Mega Edition - 4.7k
The Higurashi franchise seems to have diluted a bit this year after 2008 milking, although its still Alchemist cash cow. This powered-up spin-off doesn't look like it'll bring much though.

[WII] Naruto Shippuuden: Ryujinki - 4.4k
I really wonder what will Takara Tomy do next year if they really think its worth trying to continue. A license that made them sell even 400k on the GC is only doing this now, their DS titles aren't doing anywhere as much as before either. Drop the license?

[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX - 1.6k
If we take this a budget re-release, its about what you would expect, but its no budget at all (7140Y). Guess the mic costs a lot? You have to wonder why would they release this instead of a proper Joysound 2 though.

[360] Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 - 13k
Should have had this in the predictions, 360 shooters seem very stable and all.

 

[Road]

Now this is more like it, only 2ch first day sales left. Catch-up nearly done.

I think the guy said he'd do first day sales together with first week.

Spoiler

Don't quote me on that.

 

[Aru]

[PSP] La Pucelle: Ragnarok - 5.8k
Pretty poor, like everything from NI on PSP that isn't Disgaea. Seems like a bad trend given they have some more non-Disgaea PSP games in the oven.

[WII] Naruto Shippuuden: Ryujinki - 4.4k
I really wonder what will Takara Tomy do next year if they really think its worth trying to continue. A license that made them sell even 400k on the GC is only doing this now, their DS titles aren't doing anywhere as much as before either. Drop the license?

Naruto and DBZ series need rest in Japan. While Raging Blast is doing okay, Naruto games just bomb when released.

I think the western market is more than enough for these series.
I would like to see NA/EU figures for them though.

For N1, yeah it's pretty sad. Original games don't sell (see Princess Hymn of Antiphona), non-Disgaea ports neither.
We'll see if Zettai does better or not.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Would you mind adding a December hardware prediction for PS3/Wii? There seems to be a ton of interest in that particular battle. I can keep the predictions myself, but since you already have the software going and do such a good job I thought I would ask you first.

Yeah, should be easy to do in the same template. I think it could be 5-week, from November 30 to January 3, that way we cover NSMB Wii week and new year week. PS3/Wii only? cumulative predictions by Famitsu rounded to thousands figures?. Any feedback welcomed.

And while we're at it, next prediction set discussion: my opinion would be to cover just the big 6, after all the way we predict its all about getting right the big ones, and that way it isn't a massive showdown of numbers. Anyway, I'd say having Powerful Pro-Kun 12 Pocket, Phantasy Star Portable 2, Gundam vs Gundam Next Plus, Tokimeki 4, NSMB Wii and Sengoku Musou 3. More feedback welcomed

 

[Vinnk]

Back in the early 90's Anime Laserdiscs sold on par and sometimes sold more than the VHS tapes. This is despite LD having only a fraction of the install base of VHS.

 

[onken]

First Day Sales (11/26)
[NDS] Layton Kyouju to Majin no Fue - 140k
[NDS] Strike Witches - 3.5k
[NDS] Cooking Mama 3 - 2.0k
[WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010 - 23k
[WII] Naruto Shippuuden: Ryujinki - 4.4k
[WII] Puyo Puyo 7 - 2.0k
[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX - 1.6k
[360] Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 - 13k
[PSP] La Pucelle: Ragnarok - 5.8k
[PSP] Higurashi Daybreak Portable: Mega Edition - 4.7k
[PSP] Puyo Puyo 7 - 3.6k

http://ameblo.jp/sinobi/entry-10397861009.html

Wow Layton took quite a dip.

 

[Chris1964]

Yeah, should be easy to do in the same template. I think it could be 5-week, from November 30 to January 3, that way we cover NSMB Wii week and new year week. PS3/Wii only? cumulative predictions by Famitsu rounded to thousands figures?. Any feedback welcomed.

And while we're at it, next prediction set discussion: my opinion would be to cover just the big 6, after all the way we predict its all about getting right the big ones, and that way it isn't a massive showdown of numbers. Anyway, I'd say having Powerful Pro-Kun 12 Pocket, Phantasy Star Portable 2, Gundam vs Gundam Next Plus, Tokimeki 4, NSMB Wii and Sengoku Musou 3. More feedback welcomed

The list seems ok but I think Pokemon could be next week's surprise. Just a personal opinion though, I don't have anything to back it up.

 

[Parl]

Eh.. it was a little light hearted dig at the whole Wii is fucked in Japan graph... and he took me seriously, so then I did a sarcastic You dont come here often line, and your all getting antsy pantsy.

I didn't realise because I agree. I think the Wii is pretty fucked in Japan, because I don't expect them to release the kind of games that got DS to shoot up and defy its previous momentum. I think NSMBW will make a difference though, but big games needs to come in H1 next year, like Wii Fit, to sustain that kind of momentum. The Japanese audience are proving very hard to please.

I do frequent MC threads a lot, but I have my moments where I can't be bothered to post and I just lurk, and I don't remember everybody's personalities, because despite my memory being pretty good overall, I'm poor at remember names and stuff like that, so I only remember what a few dozen people are like. I usually just assume people are joking on GAF, and I imagine people would think the same of me.

 

[Road]

Dengeki info for this week (Nov. 16-22):

01./03. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 52,628 / 1,686,984
02./04. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 42,665 / 949,634
03./06. [NDS] Pokemon Soul Silver (Pokemon) - 30,828 / 1,550,516
04./00. [WII] Taiko no Tatusjin Wii: Dodoon to 2 Yome! (Bandai Namco Games) - 25,061 / NEW
05./00. [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Vancouver Olympics　(Nintendo) - 24,675 / NEW
06./00. [360] Left 4 Dead 2 (Electronic Arts) - 24,566 / NEW
07./08. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold (Pokemon) - 24,394 / 1,466,799
08./05. [PS3]　World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 23,044 / 305,294
09./01. [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Club wo Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J (Sega) - 22,339 / 111,157
10./00. [NDS] Dorabase 2: Nettou Ultra Stadium (Bandai Namco Games) - 17,417 / NEW

11./02. [PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast (Bandai Namco Games) - 17,314 / 77,709
12./10. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Fire (Level 5) - 16,328 / 322,907
13./11. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Kyoui no Shinryakusha - Blizzard (Level 5) - 15,989 / 339,263
14./00. [PSP] Armored Core: Silent Line Portable (From Software) - 15,939 / NEW
15./13. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 14,919 / 1,369,435
13./00. [PS3] Ratchet & Clank: Future 2 (SCE) - 11,110 / NEW
17./19. [NDS] Hikari no 4 Senshi: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) - 10,682 / 171,390
18./14. [WII]　Mario & Sonic at the Vancouver Olympics　(Nintendo) - 10,094 / 47,410
19./12. [PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) - 9,550 17,894 / 161,080
20./00. [WII] Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium (Hudson) - 8,571 / NEW


Other software:

(1999-11) [GB] Pokemon Gold / Silver (Pokemon) - LTD: 6,270,000
(2002-11) [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (Pokemon) - LTD: 5,050,000
(2006-09) [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon) - LTD: 5,920,000
(2008-12) [WII] Taiko no Tatusjin Wii (Bandai Namco Games) - FW: 114,000 / LTD: 620,000


Additional info:

- Taiko Wii 2 had around 15% sell-through.
- DSi LL - 99,000 (65% sell-through).
- LTD for:
-- DS - 6,540,000
-- DSL - 17,670,000
-- DSi - 3,900,000

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
NDS      |    136,173 |     40,939 |  3,227,138 | 28,205,229
PSP      |     32,693 |     42,740 |  1,863,265 | 13,012,583
Wii      |     31,229 |     26,276 |  1,272,143 |  8,855,186
PS3      |     33,242 |     41,294 |  1,246,420 |  3,948,563
X360     |      3,824 |      4,680 |    323,400 |  1,174,583
PS2      |      1,843 |      1,888 |            |      
------------------------------------------------------------   
Total    |    239,004 |    157,817 |

 

[schuelma]

Yeah, should be easy to do in the same template. I think it could be 5-week, from November 30 to January 3, that way we cover NSMB Wii week and new year week. PS3/Wii only? cumulative predictions by Famitsu rounded to thousands figures?. Any feedback welcomed.

Yeah 5 weeks is fine, probably makes sense. I think PS3/Wii only makes sense because that seems to be the only hardware most people are concerned about. In terms of what tracker, I guess I would prefer MC just because we get the official numbers first (especially with the reliability of the Famitsu leak seeming to be in question lately), but whatever is fine with me.

Edit- I don't know if you want to make it weekly, or just have people guess on the 5 week total this week? Whatever is easiest for you- I'll probably guess all 5 weeks just for the fun of it and then add em up.

And while we're at it, next prediction set discussion: my opinion would be to cover just the big 6, after all the way we predict its all about getting right the big ones, and that way it isn't a massive showdown of numbers. Anyway, I'd say having Powerful Pro-Kun 12 Pocket, Phantasy Star Portable 2, Gundam vs Gundam Next Plus, Tokimeki 4, NSMB Wii and Sengoku Musou 3. More feedback welcomed

The only addition I would possibly have is Pikachu..I think it could surprise. Looks great otherwise..man what a big week.

 

[Moor-Angol]

WOWOWOWOW @ Futari numbers, another success for Cave on 360 after Death Smiles

hope i can find the limited edition on next month while i'm in Japan...

 

[schuelma]

Yes, I guess 1.1-1.2 milions on first week wouldn't be so hazardous to predict at this point. And I can't even imagine how much the sales would be sustained through december. 2+M at the end of the year would be definitely feasible IMHO

That's what I'm leaning towards, but I feel like that would be on the really high end of predictions so I'm a bit hesitant.

 

[Road]

Yeah 5 weeks is fine, probably makes sense. I think PS3/Wii only makes sense because that seems to be the only hardware most people are concerned about. In terms of what tracker, I guess I would prefer MC just because we get the official numbers first (especially with the reliability of the Famitsu leak seeming to be in question lately), but whatever is fine with me.

Famitsu also may combine the last and first week of 2009 and 2010, respectively, and we'd have to wait for their yearly report to find out (which isn't usually very late anyway).

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Do you live in Japan and know that or are you guessing?

I have a couple of friends who live in Japan and I contact them regularly. They had the impression that the game was not hyped as, for example MH3, and that the entire japanese market was somehow...not so responsive as before.

Of course this does not mean it is actually like that everywhere. I just added my two bits to the discussion.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Yeah 5 weeks is fine, probably makes sense. I think PS3/Wii only makes sense because that seems to be the only hardware most people are concerned about. In terms of what tracker, I guess I would prefer MC just because we get the official numbers first (especially with the reliability of the Famitsu leak seeming to be in question lately), but whatever is fine with me.

Edit- I don't know if you want to make it weekly, or just have people guess on the 5 week total this week? Whatever is easiest for you- I'll probably guess all 5 weeks just for the fun of it and then add em up.

Yeah, I meant total because I was planning to include Wii and PS3 on the weeks where software releases are scarce (FFXIII week, Zelda week...).
But we can also do it a one-time-only-set with the 5 weeks respective numbers and the total, so it isn't 2 sets of predictions every week.

On the software side, lots of mix feelings with Pawapoke 12, Tokimeki 4, Pokepark and even Creed 2 going by the common places to gauge interest. In the end, maybe an 8-game set with Pokepark and Creed 2 PS3 is as fair as possible.

 

[schuelma]

I have a couple of friends who live in Japan and I contact them regularly. They had the impression that the game was not hyped as, for example MH3, and that the entire japanese market was somehow...not so responsive as before.
.

Well, I don't know when you contacted them or what demographic they fit in, but NSMB Wii doesn't strike me as a game that is going to get a ton of awareness/interest months before the release compared to Monster Hunter/ FF13 or Smash Brothers if you want to use a Nintendo franchise. It seems like things have just started to pick up recently as opposed to MH Tri which was being hyped 3 months before release it seems like.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Well, I don't know when you contacted them or what demographic they fit in, but NSMB Wii doesn't strike me as a game that is going to get a ton of awareness/interest months before the release compared to Monster Hunter/ FF13 or Smash Brothers if you want to use a Nintendo franchise. It seems like things have just started to pick up recently as opposed to MH Tri which was being hyped 3 months before release it seems like.

Then, with which elements can you conclude that NSMBW is going to sell a tons? I would like you to furnish some evidence.

 

[schuelma]

Then, with which elements can you conclude that NSMBW is going to sell a tons? I would like you to furnish some evidence.

I've made my position many times, so I apologize to everyone else for the repetition, but here it goes:

1- Nostalgia. IIRC, Galaxy recovered sales wise after Nintendo started advertising the game as a direct link to the 2D mario games. Nintendo right now has print ads and TV commercials where the actual new game isn't shown- they are showing footage of the old 2d Mario games and linking it to NSMB Wii.

2- Local multiplayer. I think this is going to be a huge draw. In addition to the nostalgia ads, Nintendo is also showing 2 and 4 people playing the game on the couch at the same time. I would argue that most of Nintendo's big hits this gen on Wii have had some sort of local multiplayer and NSMB Wii looks like the most accessible and appealing yet.

3- It's the sequel or whatever to a game that has sold 5.5 million copies on a system that should have at least some of the same demographics to the Wii. I realize the response is that 2d platformers are more appealing on handhelds but I have yet to see any compelling argument to support that- 2d mario's were born on the console space afterall. Furthermore, that is a huge audience to try and capture- NSMB Wii could do 60% of NSMB DS's LTD (which is still growing) and do 3.3 million.

4- Nintendo itself has huge expectations for the game. Now, obviously Nintendo isn't perfect and they make mistakes. But I do give publishers expectations some value and in this case Nintendo is projecting 10 million units worldwide in just over 3 months. They are changing the Wii case for goodness sake.

5- Here is where we get into the vague world of internet preorder data which I realize is full of guesswork, but as I've said, the Comgnet internet site provides a top 20 preorder ranking which I've found to be pretty good at judging pre launch preorder expectations. NSMB Wii is tracking insanely high the last few weeks and is on track to do almost a third better than NSMB DS, twice as good as MK Wii and 4 or 5 times better than Galaxy. The only Nintendo title it won't match in preorders is Smash, which is clearly a more front loaded franchise.

It's also at the top of amazon but that means much less in my estimation.


6- Famitsu's expectations predict a 1,03-1,29M opening shipment and a 2,50M or more LTD. While the LTD estimates are truly just guesses, the shipment number usually seems to be pretty accurate. So we know it is getting a very big initial shipment.

7- I've been so insanely wrong the last 3-4 months that I'm do for a winner.

8- cvx says its going to be huge.

 

[test_account]

Famitsu leak Nov 16-22, 2009. Look who is back in town.

Who? Or which game (if you mean a game?) is back?

[PSP] Jak x Daxter - 1,100 (14%)

xx . [PSP] Jak and Daxter: The Last Frontier (SCE) - 1.100 / 1.100

No increase at all from the 1st day to the 1st week? Pity for the developer and publisher :\

 

[king zell]

more Final Fantasy XIII in store Demos

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=6369

Dragon Quest IX hot spot

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=6367

L4D,AC 2 ads

http://www.true-gaming.net/home/?p=6365

i hope you guys enjoy this stuff

 

[Cygnus X-1]

I've made my position many times, so I apologize to everyone else for the repetition, but here it goes:

1- Nostalgia. IIRC, Galaxy recovered sales wise after Nintendo started advertising the game as a direct link to the 2D mario games. Nintendo right now has print ads and TV commercials where the actual new game isn't shown- they are showing footage of the old 2d Mario games and linking it to NSMB Wii.

2- Local multiplayer. I think this is going to be a huge draw. In addition to the nostalgia ads, Nintendo is also showing 2 and 4 people playing the game on the couch at the same time. I would argue that most of Nintendo's big hits this gen on Wii have had some sort of local multiplayer and NSMB Wii looks like the most accessible and appealing yet.

3- It's the sequel or whatever to a game that has sold 5.5 million copies on a system that should have at least some of the same demographics to the Wii. I realize the response is that 2d platformers are more appealing on handhelds but I have yet to see any compelling argument to support that- 2d mario's were born on the console space afterall. Furthermore, that is a huge audience to try and capture- NSMB Wii could do 60% of NSMB DS's LTD (which is still growing) and do 3.3 million.

4- Nintendo itself has huge expectations for the game. Now, obviously Nintendo isn't perfect and they make mistakes. But I do give publishers expectations some value and in this case Nintendo is projecting 10 million units worldwide in just over 3 months. They are changing the Wii case for goodness sake.

5- Here is where we get into the vague world of internet preorder data which I realize is full of guesswork, but as I've said, the Comgnet internet site provides a top 20 preorder ranking which I've found to be pretty good at judging pre launch preorder expectations. NSMB Wii is tracking insanely high the last few weeks and is on track to do almost a third better than NSMB DS, twice as good as MK Wii and 4 or 5 times better than Galaxy. The only Nintendo title it won't match in preorders is Smash, which is clearly a more front loaded franchise.

It's also at the top of amazon but that means much less in my estimation.


6- Famitsu's expectations predict a 1,03-1,29M opening shipment and a 2,50M or more LTD. While the LTD estimates are truly just guesses, the shipment number usually seems to be pretty accurate. So we know it is getting a very big initial shipment.

7- I've been so insanely wrong the last 3-4 months that I'm do for a winner.

8- cvx says its going to be huge.

Thanks for your post. We'll see if this is going to be true.

 

[schuelma]

Don't believe company PR rubbish. Sony and Microsoft would sell their souls to have the kind of success Nintendo is enjoying this gen.

I really dislike this argument at least as it relates to the present. One can acknowledge that overall Nintendo has been extremely successful with the platform especially compared to its competitors while also admitting that right now it has lost a lot of momentum at least in Japan.

Note, I'm not agreeing with the Nintendo is completely doomed in Japan crowd..at least not yet..but the response about overall sales and overall profitability seems to ignore the points being made (or attempting to be made) about the Wii's current situation in Japan.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Oh Noooo.
You are not starting to believe this "wii hype completely destroyed" nonsense. Are you?
Just because you heard Analysts and fanboys repeatedly state this does not make it fact!

Do people never learn any lessons? Even after 3 years of saying Wii is dead in the water???

No one said the Wii was dead in the water for 3 years, and Nintendo themselves have said that the Wii is dead in the water right now.

Nintendo hardly played any of it's cards yet.

Except a price drop and a high profile software bundle.

For the PS3 to even start encroaching on 360's sales (talk less of Wii numbers). HOW many cards did Sony have to play?

• How many Revisions?
• How many Price Cuts?
• How many colors?

PS3 surpassed 360 LTD in week two of its release at 60k yen and never looked back. They didn't have to play any cards. To surpass the Wii, it took one revision, and two price cuts. They did release one additional colour, but it was sort of a time-limited bump and not the kind of aggressive colour spam we saw with the PSP.

Now how many of these cards has Nintendo played?

Of the two, one? A price cut?

If the Wii hype is Completely dead as you said, AND the PS3 only outsold it by 2k units last week(after a new revision AND price cut), Guess which company should be worried?

Nintendo, because Sony's hardware is at an all-time high and did an excellent job of starting to climb out of the ridiculously deep hole they carved themselves, whereas Nintendo's hardware is well off all-time highs.

Don't believe company PR rubbish. Sony and Microsoft would sell their souls to have the kind of success Nintendo is enjoying this gen.

In some respects, sure. In profitability. In overall sales, absolutely. That doesn't mean Nintendo isn't doing certain things wrong (they are and they admit that they are) or in trouble (they are and they admit that they are).

 

[gogogow]

Nintendo hardly played any of it's cards yet.

For the PS3 to even start encroaching on 360's sales (talk less of Wii numbers). HOW many cards did Sony have to play?

• How many Revisions?
• How many Price Cuts?
• How many colors?

Now how many of these cards has Nintendo played?

Of the two, one? A price cut?

Nintendo played 2 cards already. First the Kuro (Black) Wii and the price cut.
They both had a minimal impact on the sales and we all know what happened with the PS3 slim after Sony played their cards.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Oh Noooo.
You are not starting to believe this "wii hype completely destroyed" nonsense. Are you?
Just because you heard Analysts and fanboys repeatedly state this does not make it fact!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=378785

Nintendo top honcho Satoru Iwata has said that Wii's situation in Japan "cannot be defined as healthy". It's probably not as bad as it sounds, they have sold ba-zillions after all.

"As you probably know, the current situation of Wii cannot be defined as healthy," he said, detailing this year's decline in Wii sales in Japan to well below the 50k unit sales mark per week.

A spike to almost 100k sales one week in the summer failed to last, and despite a price cut in September, Iwata says: "The price cut seems to have the least impact here than other parts of the world."

He adds: "It is our urgent mission to recover the momentum of Wii during the holidays utilising Nintendo's strength."

Iwata goes on to reason the Wii's software sales decline. "Since the software we launched at the end of 2008 did not go on to sell for an extended period of time, and we were not able to launch very strong titles in the first half of this year, we have seen a significant drop in software sales this year. As a result Wii Software unit sales share is just below 50 percent of the entire home console software market so far in 2009."

It's not me that is saying this, you know.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 258 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 199.4 (+0.2) weeks (December 24, 2003), where DS was at 106.1 (+0.1) weeks (December 11, 2006), and where GBA was at 179.5 (+1.2) weeks (August 25, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 206 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 21.4 (+0.3) weeks (February 5, 2002), where PS3 was at 43.2 (+0.3) weeks (September 3, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.3 (+0.1) weeks (January 9, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 158 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 60.6 (+0.7) weeks (April 26, 2001), where PSP was at 88.0 (+0.7) weeks (August 13, 2006), where GCN was at 217.4 (+11.7) weeks (November 9, 2005), and where Wii was at 51.6 (+0.7) weeks (November 22, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 155 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 105.0 (+0.2) weeks (March 23, 2003), where DS was at 80.4 (+0.1) weeks (June 14, 2006), where PS2 was at 126.2 (+0.3) weeks (July 29, 2002), and where PSP was at 174.5 (+0.2) weeks (April 10, 2008).

DSi comparisons: After 55 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 77.6 (+0.8) weeks (August 5, 2004) and where DSL was at 25.5 (+0.2) weeks (August 24, 2006).

PSPgo comparisons: After 3 weeks, PSPgo is where GBm was at 0.3 (+0.0) weeks (September 13, 2005).

Based on this week's Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 78.7 / 21.3 bring total shares to 68.3 / 31.7. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 406.6 weeks (September 8, 2017).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 10.5 / 89.5 bring total shares to 23.2 / 76.8. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 659.1 weeks (July 11, 2022).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 51.4 / 48.6 bring total shares to 30.6 / 69.4. At this week's rates, PS3 catches up to Wii in 2,560.3 weeks (December 18, 2058). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 140.6 weeks (August 2, 2012).

Week over week, LL shoots DS up, Wii/PS3/PSP attempt to converge, and PS2/X360 hover over the floor.

Through the first forty-seven weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -47.2%
DS family: +7.7%
PS2: -55.7%
PS3: +55.3%
PSP family: -42.5%
X360: +28.6%

Home hardware: -22.1%
Portable hardware: -18.4%

Nintendo hardware: -16.7%
Sony hardware: -26.4%

Sum of all hardware: -19.8%

Last year:

This year:

IIRC, Galaxy recovered sales wise after Nintendo started advertising the game as a direct link to the 2D mario games.

And FWIW, I still say it's just a familiar lull->holiday bump pattern of Nintendo games released at that time of year causing a sales S.

It's not me that is saying this, you know.

Iwata talks about shitty hardware sales and failure to release major software titles, but nothing about the major games actually released in the present day failing to put up major numbers.

 

[Road]

Does it say here Hudson expected to sell 300k copies of Joysound DX in Japan alone? http://www.hudson.co.jp/corp/investors/pdf/091106.pdf I'm not sure.

[WII] Metal Fight Beyblade: Gachinko Stadium
- Goal: 50,000
- First week: 7,300　(First shipment estimated by Famitsu: ~26k).

[WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010
- Goal: 280,000
- First day: 23,000

[WII] Karaoke Joysound Wii DX
- Goal: 300,000 ???
- First day: 1,600

Momotaro seems attainable as the series isn't usually front loaded.

 

[jj984jj]

Looks like we should have predicted Mushihimesama Futari 1.5 instead of Higurashi or Joysound.

 

[kobashi100]

Did Mushihimesama Futari Ver 1.5 1st day sales beat Sin & Punishment 2 first week sales?

 

[king zell]

strange thing that my friend is telling me that FFCCTCB has alot of ads in Japanese stores but no one seems interested in the game.

 

[duckroll]

strange thing that my friend is telling me that FFCCTCB has alot of ads in Japanese stores but no one seems interested in the game.

Nothing strange about that at all. :lol