charlequin
Banned
Parl said:
I support this notion.
-
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Media Create Sales: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2009
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
I support this notion.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I don't think I know how to do that in the excel template I use (not really a template since I have to change it given the amount of games, and manually add every prediction..etc, etc). Pretty poor excel skills herecharlequin said:
However since its done already for NPD, if someone wants to step in to do it with those tools and people agree to use it, be my guest. Should be much easier to use that here than me trying to change my excel template to do the same, and I use no parser too.
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 950K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.25M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 425K
PS3 Hardware - 175K
WII Hardware - 180K
PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.25M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 425K
PS3 Hardware - 175K
WII Hardware - 180K
PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS PREDICTIONS
V
Vilix
Unconfirmed Member
schuelma said:
Are these predections or actuals?
I hope this week doesn't mark the end of Famitsu leak. I don't remember this has happened before at a non holiday period since we started getting leaked Famitsu numbers back in 2007.
Media Create comparisons
After 10 weeks:
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 1.356.083
[WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 1.044.488
After 13 weeks:
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond (Pokemon Co.) - 2.329.227
[NDS] Pokemon Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 1.931.445
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 4.260.672
[NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.153.412
After 25 weeks:
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 2.676.017
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.822.466
After 2 weeks:
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5) - 186.716
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (Level 5) - 369.506
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5) - 434.421
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 391.507
Pokemon, Friend Collection and Wii Fit Plus are endering the holiday season now, so they will cover some distance.
Media Create comparisons
After 10 weeks:
[WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 1.356.083
[WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 1.044.488
After 13 weeks:
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond (Pokemon Co.) - 2.329.227
[NDS] Pokemon Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 1.931.445
[NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 4.260.672
[NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.) - 3.153.412
After 25 weeks:
[NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 2.676.017
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) - 1.822.466
After 2 weeks:
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Curious Village (Level 5) - 186.716
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Diabolical Box (Level 5) - 369.506
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Last Time Travel (Level 5) - 434.421
[NDS] Professor Layton and the Flute of Malevolent Destiny (Level 5) - 391.507
Pokemon, Friend Collection and Wii Fit Plus are endering the holiday season now, so they will cover some distance.
That's easy to know now. But when I was revisiting old threads (2004-2008 period) to see if I have missed any Media Create or Famitsu leaked numbers I always had to doublecheck the numbers and the dates so that I see if they are predictions or actual sales. Dragona had said then no marking the predictions meaned ban.onken said:
I'm not pointing at you schuelma
I think some of you are predicting NSMB Wii to have the best 3rd week in history. I probably wasn't super thorough, but I couldn't find any title that broke 400k in week 3 on Garaph.
EDIT: The only game I could find that had a 400k+ week beyond week 2 was Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire.
EDIT: The only game I could find that had a 400k+ week beyond week 2 was Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire.
Diamond / Pearl sold 429.017 in week 13 (Dec 18-24 2006).
If the original NSMB had the same release date with NSMBW I'm sure it would break the 500k mark in week 3.
EDIT: All the games with >400k sales after their second weeks are (Famitsu):
13/12/99-19/12/99 [NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver (Nintendo) - 436.828 (week 5)
20/12/99-02/01/00 [NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver (Nintendo) - 1.050.754 (week 6+week 7)
16/12/02-22/12/02 [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (Pokemon Co.) - 437.352 (week 5)
30/12/02-05/01/03 [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (Pokemon Co.) - 408.831 (week 7)
18/12/06-24/12/06 [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 429.017 (week 13)
If the original NSMB had the same release date with NSMBW I'm sure it would break the 500k mark in week 3.
EDIT: All the games with >400k sales after their second weeks are (Famitsu):
13/12/99-19/12/99 [NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver (Nintendo) - 436.828 (week 5)
20/12/99-02/01/00 [NGB] Pokémon Gold / Silver (Nintendo) - 1.050.754 (week 6+week 7)
16/12/02-22/12/02 [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (Pokemon Co.) - 437.352 (week 5)
30/12/02-05/01/03 [GBA] Pokemon Ruby / Sapphire (Pokemon Co.) - 408.831 (week 7)
18/12/06-24/12/06 [NDS] Pokemon Diamond / Pearl (Pokemon Co.) - 429.017 (week 13)
kswiston said:
It might be high. This is my reasoning- I expect a 450-500K 2nd week because of how well it did over the first weekend, and then the following week which we are predicting from is probably going to be the biggest Wii week of the year so I don't think it will drop much at all.
kswiston said:
Well, we're just looking at the 3rd week sales and right now the data point we have is the Wii version outselling the DS one 1st week..so while I suspect you are right that NSMB Wii won't have the insane legs the DS one had, I think it will do just as well or better at least until January.
These are Famitsu numbers. Since Media Create seperated Pokemons obviously they didn't hit 400k individually. But according to Media Create:kswiston said:I went back to the Media Create thread from Dec 18-24 2006. While Pokemon D/P numbers on Media Create weren't quite 400k, you were right that they were extremely high.
However, you should have pointed out that the DSL sold almost 500k that week
19/12/05-25/12/05 [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World (Nintendo) - 416.132 (week 5)
More perspective to FFXIII.
1999 - PS1 - VIII - 3,502
1997 - PS1 - VII - 3,278
2000 - PS1 - IX - 2,707
1994 - SFC - VI - 2,550
1992 - SFC - V - 2,450
2001 - PS2 - X - 2,325
2006 - PS2 - XII - 2,323
2009 - PS3 - XIII - 1,500 (?) <----
1991 - SFC - IV - 1,440
1990 - NFC - III - 1,400
1988 - NFC - II - 760
1987 - NFC - I - 520
2002 - PS2 - XI - 162 (...)
(In thousand units.)
The Final Fantasy series is set to turn back 18 years in time and sell like it's 1991.
1999 - PS1 - VIII - 3,502
1997 - PS1 - VII - 3,278
2000 - PS1 - IX - 2,707
1994 - SFC - VI - 2,550
1992 - SFC - V - 2,450
2001 - PS2 - X - 2,325
2006 - PS2 - XII - 2,323
2009 - PS3 - XIII - 1,500 (?) <----
1991 - SFC - IV - 1,440
1990 - NFC - III - 1,400
1988 - NFC - II - 760
1987 - NFC - I - 520
2002 - PS2 - XI - 162 (...)
(In thousand units.)
The Final Fantasy series is set to turn back 18 years in time and sell like it's 1991.
Chris1964 said:
See, DS Hardware (according to Media Create) for that same week was 595k. In both cases the huge software numbers are coming from huge hardware numbers.
Like the Pokemon example (week ending Dec 24th), Animal Crossing's big week ends on Christmas Day.
In the case of NSMB Wii, the week ends much earlier (Dec 20th), and the Wii will be extremely lucky to hit 200k (even our high predictions so far are in the 180k range).
I don't understand what exactly you are arguing with me. I gave you every title with >400k sales after its 2nd week. I didn' say it would sell that many. What you don't take in mind though is that week 51 is week 3 for NSMBWii. It was released in December, so I don't expect it to fall below 350k right at the beginning of holidays.kswiston said:
schuelma said:
I dunno. I think the NSMB effect will have dropped off a bit by then and the holiday boost will get it from about 50k (where it would be outside of holidays) to 80-90k.
I just don't see the Wii doing over 100k weekly once the Mario effect has lessened.
Anyhow, as you can see from my software predictions, I tend to lowball everything in this recession
Lion Heart
Banned
Would it be crazy to predict
PS3- FFXIII ~950,000
360- FFXIII ~4-500,000
PS3- FFXIII ~950,000
360- FFXIII ~4-500,000
Zombie James
Banned
Lion Heart said:
There is no 360 version in Japan.
Lion Heart
Banned
Ah, forgot about that. I was wondering why people were ignoring those predictions :/
Carry on gentleman.
Carry on gentleman.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Follow-up: Got it working thanks to donny along side the rest, so there will be 3 columns for this one results: by units (overall units difference), by points (overall percentage difference) and a special only by ff13 (overall units difference but just for ff day 1 and week 1 predictions).Parl said:
I think Final Fantasy XIII was going to be in a bad spot regardless of what platform it landed on.
Maybe Japan would have bought into a numbered DS Final Fantasy like they did a numbered DS Dragon Quest? However, I can't see that helping numbers in the West.
Final Fantasy sales potential on the Wii (versus the PS3 in Japan and PS3/360 everywhere else) is unproven.
Throwing it on the PSP would have still resulted in a drop in Japan and would have been a disaster everywhere else.
With the old PS2 userbase all over the place worldwide, I think the PS3/360 combo is as good a choice as any. The game will take a tumble in Japan, but hopefully make it up in the West.
Maybe Japan would have bought into a numbered DS Final Fantasy like they did a numbered DS Dragon Quest? However, I can't see that helping numbers in the West.
Final Fantasy sales potential on the Wii (versus the PS3 in Japan and PS3/360 everywhere else) is unproven.
Throwing it on the PSP would have still resulted in a drop in Japan and would have been a disaster everywhere else.
With the old PS2 userbase all over the place worldwide, I think the PS3/360 combo is as good a choice as any. The game will take a tumble in Japan, but hopefully make it up in the West.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Hmm, no one seemed to answer my question...
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18853375&postcount=535
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=18853375&postcount=535
AdventureRacing
Member
kswiston said:
The only problem is the massive increase in dev costs. Not to mention having to port to a second platform to try and make up sales.
360/PS3 may well be the best platform for final fantasy this gen but it must be a huge step down for SE compared to last gen.
Bel Marduk
Banned
Sage00 said:
Thanks. I don't think they're in first day, but I'd like to hear what duckroll or Kurosaki or anyone else in the know think.
AdventureRacing said:
Considering the budget from DQVIII -> DQIX was probably as much lower as the FFXII -> FFXIII was higher, I think it all balances out and keeps them happy
Plus even if FFXIII costs about 30-50 million to make, if it does 4+ million wordwide (with 1.5-2 million being at $90 a pop in Japan) they're still making a huge profit like they always do with FF mainline games.
AdventureRacing
Member
Bebpo said:Considering the budget from DQVIII -> DQIX was probably as much lower as the FFXII -> FFXIII was higher, I think it all balances out and keeps them happy
I'm sure as a whole company they're still fine doesn't mean they will be totally happy with one of their biggest franchises bringing in so much less profit for them.
Bebpo said:
No doubt. However sometimes expectations are higher than just making a large profit.
Look at say halo reach or NSMBwii. Both of these games could sell only 5 million and make a shitload of profit. Do you think MS or Nintendo would be happy with that scenario?
This is silly.
Development costs keep rising in the game industry. Companies are aware of this.
Current-gen entries are not going to sell the % more copies than last-gen entries to make up for the higher dev costs. Companies are aware of this too.
SE is not going to be disappointed by FFXIII bringing in less profit than FFXII or FFX. What companies do to combat rising dev costs with same or less game sales than prior releases is make more low-budget games that sell a bunch and make up the profit difference. Thus keeping profits as good or better than before.
Sure you could say, "well in that case why don't they just stick to making low budget/high profit DS games only?" but at the end of the day FFXIII will make A LOT OF PROFIT and it'd be stupid to not take advantage of that.
Development costs keep rising in the game industry. Companies are aware of this.
Current-gen entries are not going to sell the % more copies than last-gen entries to make up for the higher dev costs. Companies are aware of this too.
SE is not going to be disappointed by FFXIII bringing in less profit than FFXII or FFX. What companies do to combat rising dev costs with same or less game sales than prior releases is make more low-budget games that sell a bunch and make up the profit difference. Thus keeping profits as good or better than before.
Sure you could say, "well in that case why don't they just stick to making low budget/high profit DS games only?" but at the end of the day FFXIII will make A LOT OF PROFIT and it'd be stupid to not take advantage of that.
Yeah that's it. Thanks for reminding meHK-47 said:
My predictions:
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.10M
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.65M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 380k
PS3 Hardware - 195k
WII Hardware - 95k
I've never predicted for MC but I'm joining from now on because I find this entertaining
Edit: Revised my Wii numbers after looking at the past data and comparing games.
gkrykewy said:
Final Fantasy XII was in development forever as well.
Anyhow, Final Fantasy XIII needs ~6M LTD (shipped) Worldwide to reverse the downward trend and beat FFXII. It might take some channel stuffing, but I think it is doable.
Resident Evil 5 and Metal Gear Solid 4 both Managed to ship 5M units Worldwide. Final Fantasy XIII will get the benefit of another ~800k sales in Japan over those titles.