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Media Create Sales: Nov 30-Dec 6, 2009

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
AdventureRacing said:
The only problem is the massive increase in dev costs.
Is there any credible source of "massive increase" in costs relative to PS2 entries? I mean looking at the actual game, what is indicative of huge increases? The costly stuff like the CG they make doesn't dramatically change costs just because you put it on BluRay instead of DVD. Is FFXIII significantly more rich in content then previous FFs?

Ok the dev-time length may be one reason, though it's still speculative if we don't know how team sizes changed over time.
 

kswiston

Member
Fafalada said:
Is there any credible source of "massive increase" in costs relative to PS2 entries? I mean looking at the actual game, what is indicative of huge increases? The costly stuff like the CG they make doesn't dramatically change costs just because you put it on BluRay instead of DVD. Is FFXIII significantly more rich in content then previous FFs?

Ok the dev-time length may be one reason, though it's still speculative if we don't know how team sizes changed over time.

I wouldn't be surprised if Final Fantasy XIII was the most costly game in the series, but I think people are downplaying how much the previous games cost to make. At least as far back as Final Fantasy VII, none of the games were cheap to make. From what I have read, even the PS1 titles were $20M+ to develop.
 
Fafalada said:
I mean looking at the actual game, what is indicative of huge increases? The costly stuff like the CG they make doesn't dramatically change costs just because you put it on BluRay instead of DVD
I would think the greatly increased detail on real-time stuff throughout the whole game world would make a bigger difference than anything to do with the ~hour of FMV they usually seem to include. However, I'm definitely not in a better position to know how much extra effort various things take for generational leaps.
faridmon said:
so you guys reckon that Tales of Graces will do >300k LTD?
It had a lower first day than Dawn of the New World, which had a first week of 151K and didn't get much past 200K. Most Tales sell 60+% of their total in their first week. So, pretty unlikely.
 

Bebpo

Banned
Fafalada said:
Is there any credible source of "massive increase" in costs relative to PS2 entries? I mean looking at the actual game, what is indicative of huge increases? The costly stuff like the CG they make doesn't dramatically change costs just because you put it on BluRay instead of DVD. Is FFXIII significantly more rich in content then previous FFs?

Ok the dev-time length may be one reason, though it's still speculative if we don't know how team sizes changed over time.

No, I think you are right. I think for the most part, a few loudmouth studios made statements about how OMG HD GAMES ARE SO EXPENSIVE and it got carried around without much proof. I bet most HD games generally cost about as much as last gen SD entries + inflation. Especially in Japan where HD games are made on the cheap cheap cheap with shortcuts everywhere. I'm sure there are some exceptions like MGS4 and AC2 where they have these gigantic 200-400 person teams working on them, but for your average game I'd side with you that dev cost increases to HD gaming are greatly exaggerated. Obviously the CG in FFXIII isn't any more expensive than the CG in FFXII. CG is CG. The in-game assets require a little more effort on textures and lighting and geometery, but when you look at FFXII's textures those were incredibly detailed as well.

I mean hell, PC games have been in "HD" since before the PS2 came out and they still had lower or the same budgets than PS2/GC/Xbox games.
 

C.T.

Member
Fafalada said:
Is there any credible source of "massive increase" in costs relative to PS2 entries? I mean looking at the actual game, what is indicative of huge increases? The costly stuff like the CG they make doesn't dramatically change costs just because you put it on BluRay instead of DVD. Is FFXIII significantly more rich in content then previous FFs?

Ok the dev-time length may be one reason, though it's still speculative if we don't know how team sizes changed over time.

Wait, but they did say that nearly 300 members worked on ff XIII at the end of development. If it doesnt hit 2m it wil lbe a huge disappointment.
 

Bebpo

Banned
C.T. said:
Wait, but they did say that nearly 300 members worked on ff XIII at the end of development. If it doesnt hit 2m it wil lbe a huge disappointment.

How many members were working on FFXII at the end of development?
 
Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.0m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.45m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 330k
PS3 Hardware - 190k
WII Hardware - 150k
 

kiryogi

Banned
D: PSP2 not exceeding first week of PSP1 D: And Graces! FF13 is to blame! It's all to blame D: Well, I was told to come in here and post this, but I can't say how sad I am to see Graces doing 113k. I really hope that picks up later. It's a really good game. I hope to make an actual topic for it if I can find the time.
 
JoshuaJSlone said:
I would think the greatly increased detail on real-time stuff throughout the whole game world would make a bigger difference than anything to do with the ~hour of FMV they usually seem to include. However, I'm definitely not in a better position to know how much extra effort various things take for generational leaps.

It had a lower first day than Dawn of the New World, which had a first week of 151K and didn't get much past 200K. Most Tales sell 60+% of their total in their first week. So, pretty unlikely.

SW similarly sells 60%+ in its first week of LTD too. SW3 increased from 81k to 126k, which means it sold 65% of its first week in one day. If Graces follows a similar percentage, and to add that it has a bundle like SW3 which should increase sales making this more likely, it could potentially sell 175k FW. I don't think >300k is likely but I think if it really does 175k FW then I can see it selling 300k, or just shy of it. Nothing like 250k or below I don't think though. DotNW had bad first day to week one legs but I suspect that was because it was the first Tales on the Wii and released in the dead of Summer where legs are far less likely. Not really seeing a similar situation with Graces.

Edit: And kiryogi, do a Graces thread :p
 

Linkhero1

Member
Bebpo said:
How many members were working on FFXII at the end of development?
I looked around and couldn't find the number of people. WTF do you guys find them? I looked through interviews and multiple sites but couldn't find anything lol
 
Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.1m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.55m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 270k
PS3 Hardware - 148k
WII Hardware - 101k
 

C.T.

Member
Linkhero1 said:
I looked around and couldn't find the number of people. WTF do you guys find them? I looked through interviews and multiple sites but couldn't find anything lol

Im quite sure they that something about their team size on ff xiii at least. I think it was a dengeki interview at one of the jgaffers translated it.
 

Linkhero1

Member
C.T. said:
Im quite sure they that something about their team size on ff xiii at least. I think it was a dengeki interview at one of the jgaffers translated it.
I should have clarified. I meant for FFXII. I think they might have mentioned a number in at least one interview but I was unable to find any.
 

Parl

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Follow-up: Got it working thanks to donny along side the rest, so there will be 3 columns for this one results: by units (overall units difference), by points (overall percentage difference) and a special only by ff13 (overall units difference but just for ff day 1 and week 1 predictions).
Wonderful, it's quite literally a much more rational system.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
JoshuaJSlone said:
I would think the greatly increased detail on real-time stuff throughout the whole game world would make a bigger difference than anything to do with the ~hour of FMV they usually seem to include.
Considering (most)JRPGs tend to be as much on-rails as Light-gun shooters when it comes to world-traversing, I have a hard time imagining realtime costs have changed much. Based on the demo XIII is still just a glorified canned-animation-player as far as RT stuff goes, and if anything, that should be easier to create if your RT assets can crossover with CG ones.
Again, I have no doubt that sheer volume of content makes the cost significant, but unless XIII raises the bar over previous entries in that regard, costs shouldn't change dramatically (assuming competent management of the projects here).

Let me ask a question here - does anyone feel that Tekken6 has been dramatically more expensive over 5: DR?

Bebpo said:
I mean hell, PC games have been in "HD" since before the PS2 came out and they still had lower or the same budgets than PS2/GC/Xbox games.
Yea this too. What changed was the amount of content going into those games (and movie-production qualities becoming more and more standard), but especially Jpn productions have mostly avoided HD money sinks when it comes to technology changes.
 

Orgen

Member
PREDICTIONS

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 985k
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.35M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 255K
PS3 Hardware - 185K
WII Hardware - 160K
 

dolemite

Member
Predictions:

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.0m
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.3m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 250k
PS3 Hardware - 170k
WII Hardware - 210k

Edit: predictions lowered
 

RamzaIsCool

The Amiga Brotherhood
PREDICTIONS!!!!

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 1.05M
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.55M
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 230K
PS3 Hardware - 220K
WII Hardware - 150K

yeah the predictions are probably too high.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.

duckroll

Member
farnham said:

That's not what it says. Since most people here can't read Korean, the original Japanese source is here: http://ameblo.jp/get6-2/entry-10409285685.html

It says that based on preorders, it looks like the first shipment is about 1 million (this is not for the first week, this is the first shipment which is going into stores right now, before the release date), and on the date of release itself they plan on shipping another 150k, with another 150k by the weekend. It goes on to say that there is a very good chance the first week sales for FFXIII will therefore be over a million.
 

farnham

Banned
schuelma said:
Does it say if short after would include the first weekend?

In any event, that kind of takes the sales out of some of the predictions here. Given how front loaded the series is I don't know if it will get much past 1.5M if the first week or so is limited to 1.3M.
it says 150k in the first day and 150k in the weekend...

duckroll said:
That's not what it says. Since most people here can't read Korean, the original Japanese source is here: http://ameblo.jp/get6-2/entry-10409285685.html

It says that based on preorders, it looks like the first shipment is about 1 million (this is not for the first week, this is the first shipment which is going into stores right now, before the release date), and on the date of release itself they plan on shipping another 150k, with another 150k by the weekend. It goes on to say that there is a very good chance the first week sales for FFXIII will therefore be over a million.


looks like ive f*ed up thanks for the clarification

dolemite said:
Why such a low shipment, aren't there enough preorders to warrant more?
it says that the preorders are very good actually
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
duckroll said:
That's not what it says. Since most people here can't read Korean, the original Japanese source is here: http://ameblo.jp/get6-2/entry-10409285685.html

It says that based on preorders, it looks like the first shipment is about 1 million (this is not for the first week, this is the first shipment which is going into stores right now, before the release date), and on the date of release itself they plan on shipping another 150k, with another 150k by the weekend. It goes on to say that there is a very good chance the first week sales for FFXIII will therefore be over a million.


So 1.3M copies should be in stores by Sunday the 20th. My 1.25M prediction might end up pretty close.
 

duckroll

Member
dolemite said:
Why such a low shipment, aren't there enough preorders to warrant more?

Low shipment? This will be the highest third party shipment in Japan for any home console this generation. :lol

Edit: Actually it could be the highest shipment for any home console game this generation, period. Are there Nintendo games on the Wii with over a million shipped initally?
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
duckroll said:
Edit: Actually it could be the highest shipment for any home console game this generation, period. Are there Nintendo games on the Wii with over a million shipped initally?

Well we know Tri got a first shipment of 1.1M. I don't think any of the Nintendo games reached that- NSMB Wii would be the closest but we don't have anything concrete- we only know it sold out its first shipment and received another one in the weekend.
 

duckroll

Member
dolemite said:
Counting the bundles might add another 50k or so copies to the total.

If what NCSX says about the required ratio of FFXIII to FFXIII Bundle orders are true (100:4), then it means that there will only be 40k or so in total, since I don't think they plan on shipping any more of it after the initial run. Lol.

schuelma said:
Well we know Tri got a first shipment of 1.1M. I don't think any of the Nintendo games reached that- NSMB Wii would be the closest but we don't have anything concrete- we only know it sold out its first shipment and received another one in the weekend.

Yeah but shipping 0 after that doesn't count! :lol
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
duckroll said:
Yeah but shipping 0 after that doesn't count! :lol


Looking back on it I still can't believe Capcom shipped that many. Jesus. An initial shipment of "only" 850K-900K would have made retailers a lot happier.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Spiegel said:
They should have pulled a Monster Hunter Tri.

Now my predictions will be way off.


You can change them up until the deadline. I think that is more than reasonable to do so after this shipment news.

I might lower mine a bit more honestly.
 

Road

Member
Spiegel said:
They should have pulled a Monster Hunter Tri.

Now my predictions will be way off.
MH3 might be exactly one of the reasons why they couldn't ship more.

And I think you can change your predictions until the Famitsu leak.

Edit: beaten on the prediction rules.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Culex said:
I didn't see it posted but what did FF12 sell during it's second week, according to Media-Create?


FFX 2nd week- 233K, third week was 86K

FF12 2nd week- 217K, 3rd week 91K.
 
Latest famitsu estimate for the first shipment was on that range:
(PS3) Final Fantasy XIII : 1,01-1,36M / 1,00-1,50M

Certainly it looks impossible already to reach FFX or FFXII numbers, even FFX-2 (1,47m first week).

Feel free to change any predictions btw...I'm seeing all but one prediction are >1,35m for the first week :p
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Feel free to change any predictions btw...I'm seeing all but one prediction are >1,35m for the first week :p


I believe that would be me. And I think that might be a bit high if 1st shipment is only going to be 1.3M.
 
Well I'll play this week.

[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st day - 850K
[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square-Enix) - 1st week - 1.1m
[WII] New Super Mario Bros Wii (Nintendo) - 3rd week - 220k
PS3 Hardware - 150k
WII Hardware - 130k
 

duckroll

Member
schuelma said:
I believe that would be me. And I think that might be a bit high if 1st shipment is only going to be 1.3M.

Why do you think I'm waiting before making my predictions? :lol

Okay, actually I was just taking pleasure in watching everyone overshoot with insane 1.5 million figures.

Do keep in mind though, even if S-E "plans" to ship another 150k over the weekend, if demand is much higher than expected, I believe they can still raise that shipment significantly at the last minute if retailers are agreeable.

They could also cancel that shipment if the 150k they ship on the first day end up not moving at all!
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
duckroll said:
Why do you think I'm waiting before making my predictions? :lol

Okay, actually I was just taking pleasure in watching everyone overshoot with insane 1.5 million figures.

Do keep in mind though, even if S-E "plans" to ship another 150k over the weekend, if demand is much higher than expected, I believe they can still raise that shipment significantly at the last minute if retailers are agreeable.

They could also cancel that shipment if the 150k they ship on the first day end up not moving at all!


I'm enjoying people predict Wii sales to be under 90K myself.

But yeah, the shipment flexibility would make sense. SE has to get it right given how quickly these types of games go to the used market.
 

RamzaIsCool

The Amiga Brotherhood
I am sticking with my 1.85M prediction. :lol I even lowered my estimate from 2M. I am just counting on Japan going batshit insane on this game and exceed everybody's expectation. In that case I will be in a better position then yall lowballers.

btw could this FF have relative better legs then the previous installments and be less frontloaded. Or does the usedgame market make this imposseble?
 

duckroll

Member
1.85 million is impossible. Even if S-E ships 500k over the weekend, it still cannot hit 1.85 million even if EVERY SINGLE COPY is sold out in the entire country of Japan. For any shipment higher than 500k, it probably can't make the weekend simply because of logistics and distribution. It doesn't matter if Japan goes batshit insane for it, you cannot sell what you cannot ship.
 

duckroll

Member
jett said:
I wonder if that's actually possible. I'll be surprised if this game has any sort of legs.

It doesn't need legs to sell 1.5 million. It would need to be a total disaster in terms of supply or demand (or both) for it to sell less than 1.5 million in 3 weeks.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
jett said:
I wonder if that's actually possible. I'll be surprised if this game has any sort of legs.


Its definitely possible, but I don't think its a complete lock yet. If it "only" sells 1.1million or so first week I don't think it will get there- that's how front loaded the series is.
 
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