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[Bel Marduk]

It says "shipped" in past tense... 発売元の「スクウェア・エニックス」の和田洋一社長は約１８０万本を出荷したことを明らかにした。

So it's week 1?

 

[Linkhero1]

I still think it will do around 1.1m first day and 1.6m for the week.

Let the games begin

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Probably.

1.8 million is still over 500,000 less than FFXII's 2,322,329.

No, 1.8 in the first week is a fucking lot, and the attach ratio would be pretty huge, probably the highest in the series for some time.

 

[Moor-Angol]

iirc we heard FF13 got similar preorders FF12 had (or even more), so i wonder why all the people is so surprised about 1,8M for the first shipment...

Spoiler

if confirmed, of course

 

[Nirolak]

No, 1.8 in the first week is a fucking lot, and the attach ratio would be pretty huge, probably the highest in the series for some time.

Monster Hunter 3 doubled its last home console installment, yet still had bomba talk.

If FFXIII's LTD is over 22% lower than the last FF, I'm sure there will be bomba talk.

 

[Elios83]

A few days ago there was this rumor on 2CH talking about 1.8m units and 200k bundles ready for launch day:

本体同梱版の数は1〜2万台程度と推測していたのですが
クラウドブラックより少ないのはおかしい等のご指摘を受けましたので
本日もう一度確認を取ったところ20万程度出荷されるようです。

また、ソフト出荷本数も初回を合計と聞き間違えていたようで
正しくは初回に130万本、発売日着に15万本、週末に15万本で160万本
更に本体同梱版を加えると合計で180万本出荷という事になります。

So, was it true?

 

[Bebpo]

It's not going to sell the entire shipment week 1 if it's 1.8 :lol

But it might do like 1.5, which is better than if they shipped 1.3 and it did less than that.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

If it sells its first shipment this year then that's greatly impressive; I would be shocked if that happens. The PS3's install base is 4m so it's really hard to hit that point in 2 weeks, but if it happens then *applause.gif*

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Monster Hunter 3 doubled its last home console installment, yet still had bomba talk.

If FFXIII's LTD is over 22% lower than the last FF, I'm sure there will be bomba talk.

Monster Hunter 3 wasn't bomba and neither will be FFXIII with those numbers, when FFXII was released PS2 had 4x times the PS3 userbase

 

[schuelma]

Wow, amazing. Must have been some very strong pre-order numbers for retailers to have that big of a first shipment.

 

[Nirolak]

Monster Hunter 3 wasn't bomba and neither will be FFXIII with those numbers, when FFXII was released PS2 had 4x times the PS3 userbase

That wasn't what he asked. He asked if there would be bomba talk, and I said yes.

 

[Bebpo]

I think it can do it in 2 weeks. The first 3 weeks are going to be its entire LTD. I can see 1.5, 300k, 150k and maybe it'll barely crawl and hit 2 million LTD.

 

[Zoe]

A few days ago there was this rumor on 2CH talking about 1.8m units and 200k bundles ready for launch day:

本体同梱版の数は1〜2万台程度と推測していたのですが
クラウドブラックより少ないのはおかしい等のご指摘を受けましたので
本日もう一度確認を取ったところ20万程度出荷されるようです。

また、ソフト出荷本数も初回を合計と聞き間違えていたようで
正しくは初回に130万本、発売日着に15万本、週末に15万本で160万本
更に本体同梱版を加えると合計で180万本出荷という事になります。

So, was it true?

Looks like the 1.8 is supposed to include the bundles? 1.6 of the standalone game.

 

[Spiegel]

Fuck yes, they have pulled a Monster Hunter Tri.

I'm glad I was too lazy to change my predictions :lol

Spoiler

Now I can't use excuses when the game underperforms :/

 

[Elios83]

Looks like the 1.8 is supposed to include the bundles? 1.6 of the standalone game.

Don't know, can't read a kanji in that mess :lol :lol XD but I would love to ((

 

[onken]

Holy shit that's mad. Of course there's no guarantee it'll sell anywhere near that, so predictions could still be sound.

 

[Road]

Fu...

1.8 million shipped?! Stop messing with our predictions!!!

UGH!



It's actually funnier this way. =)

 

[Moor-Angol]

200k bundles means hw could hit 300k this week....

Spoiler

i'm not sure 2009 YTD is already over, Chris1964

 

[Chuck Norris]

I think it can do it in 2 weeks. The first 3 weeks are going to be its entire LTD. I can see 1.5, 300k, 150k and maybe it'll barely crawl and hit 2 million LTD.

It's going to be the game to get with PS3 for awhile no?

 

[markatisu]

Wow, amazing. Must have been some very strong pre-order numbers for retailers to have that big of a first shipment.

a massive attach rate needed to sell through, jesus you would think we were talking about the 360 in America :lol

 

[LINK.AGE76]

200k bundles means hw could hit 300k this week....

Spoiler

i'm not sure 2009 YTD is already over, Chris1964

If the PS3 reaches 300k next week and eventually win the hardware battle, it would be one of the biggest comebacks ever. I don't think it will happen tho.

 

[Bebpo]

Yeah, the 200k bundles is even more interesting since those tend to sell out 99%. That pretty much kills everyone's hardware predictions ^^;

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

200k bundles is pretty huge too, seems like we understimated FF power....

 

[Linkhero1]

Yeah, the 200k bundles is even more interesting since those tend to sell out 99%. That pretty much kills everyone's hardware predictions ^^;

Seriously. I did not expect this at all.

 

[Spiegel]

I predicted 225K for the week.

Don't let me down Wada

 

[cvxfreak]

Yeah, the 200k bundles is even more interesting since those tend to sell out 99%. That pretty much kills everyone's hardware predictions ^^;

They're not guaranteed to sell out within the launch period. FFVIIAC's bundle sure didn't.

 

[Y2Kev]

40k bundles always seemed low, but 200k seems pretty high.

 

[schuelma]

200K bundles..jeebus.

 

[Bebpo]

They're not guaranteed to sell out within the launch period. FFVIIAC's bundle sure didn't.

Yes, because comparing a PS3 bundle with a movie that's already been out for a year to a PS3 bundle with the first mainline FF game in 4 years is going to bring similar results @_@

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Yes, because comparing a PS3 bundle with a movie that's already been out for a year to a PS3 bundle with the first mainline FF game in 4 years is going to bring similar results @_@

It did have the demo tho

 

[Road]

Isnt it 3 tracking weeks left of 2009, so NSMB Wii needs to seel a bit over 500k in the 3 upcoming weeks like kswiston mentioned?

I think there are two weeks left for the Famitsu year. That's what I had in mind. I could be wrong, though. There are three more weeks if you use a different convention.

But mine was a joke post. And god knows we're being so surprised this month NSMBWii might even reach 3 million in three weeks. I'm in the same page as schuelma regarding its sales, though (it may reach 2.5 million by the beginning of the next month).

 

[cvxfreak]

Yes, because comparing a PS3 bundle with a movie that's already been out for a year to a PS3 bundle with the first mainline FF game in 4 years is going to bring similar results @_@

That's not what you said earlier.

You said bundles tend to sell 99%. That's simply not true. We were talking about the Tales of Graces Wii stack last week. The Musou 3 bundles are still around. The various DS FF bundles didn't sell out right away.

What did sell out? Monster Hunter 3's bundle. As did Crisis Core's with its own special launch. So yes, I'm well aware of FF bundles and their selling power, but there is absolutely zero guarantee one game bundle alone will take PS3 sales 33% above their current highest weekly sales within a weekly period, for a number of reasons. 200K is unprecedented.

 

[dolemite]

Aren't the bundles at 700$ a pop? I just don't see how we can have 200k of these in a week when the original Phat sold something like 150k during its launch week at $600.

 

[gkryhewy]

It's going to be the game to get with PS3 for awhile no?

Yes, used.

 

[onken]

A few days ago there was this rumor on 2CH talking about 1.8m units and 200k bundles ready for launch day:

本体同梱版の数は1〜2万台程度と推測していたのですが
クラウドブラックより少ないのはおかしい等のご指摘を受けましたので
本日もう一度確認を取ったところ20万程度出荷されるようです。

また、ソフト出荷本数も初回を合計と聞き間違えていたようで
正しくは初回に130万本、発売日着に15万本、週末に15万本で160万本
更に本体同梱版を加えると合計で180万本出荷という事になります。

So, was it true?

Oh I see, so 1.3m was sent beforehand, then 150k on the first day and another 150k by the end of the week. Then another 200k bundles on top that, mad.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

40k bundles always seemed low, but 200k seems pretty high.

That is an insane number of bundles. If they actually sell through that this year then I may be eating my words about Wii beating PS3 in HW sales this year. :lol I just made that statement today too.

 

[Moor-Angol]

If the PS3 reaches 300k next week and eventually win the hardware battle, it would be one of the biggest comebacks ever. I don't think it will happen tho.

the comeback already started on Sep.1, 2009

from that day till last sunday, PS3 sold more than Wii, despite new Mario bump

from the beginning of the year, 12 titles sold more than 100k on PS3, just 7 on Wii
(based from data at the end of November, we can add new Mario, ToG, SW3 and Pokemon for Wii and CoD MW2 for PS3, but things don't change so much, Wii is 2x PS3 userbase and half of those Wii titles above 100k are made by Nintendo)

developers don't sell on Wii, developers want/hope/prey for the biggest comeback in the history of videogames in Japan

 

[schuelma]

What did sell out? Monster Hunter 3's bundle. .

And I believe that bundle was pretty limited, nowhere near 200K.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

Aren't the bundles at 700$ a pop? I just don't see how we can have 200k of these in a week when the original Phat sold something like 150k during its launch week at $600.

I believe they are essentially the same cost as a slim + the game.

 

[Zoe]

I believe they are essentially the same cost as a slim + the game.

41,600 yen according to Famitsu.

 

[onken]

Aren't the bundles at 700$ a pop? I just don't see how we can have 200k of these in a week when the original Phat sold something like 150k during its launch week at $600.

Scalper importer price to the US is not the same as Japanese RRP :lol

 

[dolemite]

Scalper importer price to the US is not the same as Japanese RRP :lol

Oops, my bad. Then it should have no trouble selling the entire shipment in one week.

 

[Road]

Aren't the bundles at 700$ a pop? I just don't see how we can have 200k of these in a week when the original Phat sold something like 150k during its launch week at $600.

I don't think Japanese think in dollars. PS3 sold 88k first week at 59,980 and 49,980 yen. The bundle is 41,600 yen.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

If its 1.8M people who changed their prediction are going to be pissed.

Seems high to me, but what do I know.

Like us both and 90% of <1,3m predictions :/

Oh well at least I won by units and most likely you win by points in the Graces week. Damn WE2010 doesn't let me finish the results, but they won't change given ranges from first day and top10 info (well, I might beat you by points but we won't know until god knows when).

I'm drowning in unconfirmed, conflicting reports of shipments. I just can't wait for first day sales to come out without sell through, so awesome.

 

[Moor-Angol]

You said bundles tend to sell 99%. That's simply not true. We were talking about the Tales of Graces Wii stack last week. The Musou 3 bundles are still around. The various DS FF bundles didn't sell out right away.

you want to compare the main Final Fantasy with Tales of, Sengoku Musou and Final Fantasy DS spin-off / remakes ?

Final Fantasy is the seco.... thir.... fourth most popular franchise in Japan, 4 year have been passed since the last chapter. Honestly i think the hype for FF13 is more, more high than any example you mentioned.

But you are there, so you can see with your eyes how the things are going in Japan, while i'm just making suppositions from my room in the good-old Europe

 

[Bel Marduk]

the comeback already started on Sep.1, 2009

from that day till last sunday, PS3 sold more than Wii, despite new Mario bump

from the beginning of the year, 12 titles sold more than 100k on PS3, just 7 on Wii
(based from data at the end of November, we can add new Mario, ToG, SW3 and Pokemon for Wii and CoD MW2 for PS3, but things don't change so much, Wii is 2x PS3 userbase and half of those Wii titles above 100k are made by Nintendo)

developers don't sell on Wii, developers want/hope/prey for the biggest comeback in the history of videogames in Japan

Wait...what? NSMBW launched 2 weeks ago and the Wii beat the PS3 then...

 

[Spiegel]

And I believe that bundle was pretty limited, nowhere near 200K.

Yeah, ~20k bundles for MH3 iirc. Or at least it was a number close to what they shipped for MHP2G (20k too)

 

[cvxfreak]

you want to compare the main Final Fantasy with Tales of, Sengoku Musou and Final Fantasy DS spin-off / remakes ?

Final Fantasy is the seco.... thir.... fourth most popular franchise in Japan, 4 year have been passed since the last chapter. Honestly i think the hype for FF13 is more, more high than any example you mentioned.

But you are there, so you can see with your eyes how the things are going in Japan, while i'm just making suppositions from my room in the good-old Europe

It's 200,000 bundles, assuming the source is true. They've ALWAYS sold out because they're so limited and highly sought after. FFXIII's bundle is only the latter... unless there are indeed 200K people ready to pick that thing up at launch.

The highest in recent memory was the CCFFVII PSP, at 77,777, but they had to launch the thing by itself to sell those through. I'm still unconvinced they'll be off the map right away, but hey, stranger things have happened.

 

[onken]

Wait...what? NSMBW launched 2 weeks ago and the Wii beat the PS3 then...

Read it again.

 

[schuelma]

I'm drowning in unconfirmed, conflicting reports of shipments. I just can't wait for first day sales to come out without sell through, so awesome.

This really sucks- you put together a great prediction league and the Famitsu software numbers are no more.