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Monster Hunter 3 doubled its last home console installment, yet still had bomba talk.

I wonder if there was bomba talk about Monster Hunter 3 because the sales expectations for Monster Hunter 3 seemed to be rather large. The Monster Hunter franchice had increased much in popularity (although on a handheld system (the PSP)) since the last Monster Hunter game on the PS2, so maybe people expected this increased popularity to translate more over to a new Monster Hunter console game.

The increased popularity in the Monster Hunter franchice definitely seemed to have translated over to the console though, since MH3 has sold near the double compared to MH2 on the PS2 has you say, that is true But maybe people expected a higher increase? But i dont know. And then there was also bomba talk about Monster Hunter 3 since it didnt manage to sell out it's first shipment (not yet at least).

EDIT 2: Then there was also some stores that dropped the price relatively fast on the standalone version of MH3 if i remember correctly. I think that they put the price back to normal again later on though. I wonder what will happend with FFXIII, if some stores will drop the price relatively fast on FFXIII as well.

I also wonder if the Monster Hunter 3 bomba talk wasnt too serious as well. I think that most people will agree that MH3 sold pretty good compared to the MH games on the PS2 at least

If FFXIII's LTD is over 22% lower than the last FF, I'm sure there will be bomba talk.

I wonder how much bomba talk it will be with FFXIII if it doesnt sell close to what FF12 did. I havnt read all the FFXIII predictions here, but at least i cant recall to have seen any predictions that was about FFXIII selling close to what FF12 did. I wonder if it is expected by people in general here that FFXIII will sell noticeably less compared to what FF12 sold.

But ye, there will probably be some bomba talk about FF13 indeed, i think so too, and especially if FFXIII wont sell out the first shipment relatively quickly, just like what happend with Monster Hunter 3, where MH3 didnt sell out it's first shipment relatively quickly.


EDIT: I think that MH3 sold pretty good and i think that MH3 has a chance to reach 1 million copies sold. So i dont look at MH3 as a bomba. And i think that FFXIII will also sell pretty good, even if FFXIII doesnt end up selling pretty close to what FF12 sold. If FFXIII ends up selling something around 1.8 million - 2 million copies, i think that this is pretty good and that this sales preformance is not a bomba in my opinion. I just wanted to say this

 

[schuelma]

I realize this doesn't count, but my own revised predictions for this week given the insane shipment -

first day- 1.1M
first week- 1.45M
LTD- 1.8M

PS3 sales- 185K

 

[onken]

This really sucks- you put together a great prediction league and the Famitsu software numbers are no more.

We could just change it to the Friday m-create numbers, they run like clockwork. Of course if the game doesn't chart in the top 10 we wouldn't get the numbers, but then again if a game is likely to be that low-key then there's no point in doing predictions for it.

 

[u_neek]

Probably been asked countless times but I can't find the answer anywhere?

How much was the PS2 at when FFX released? 5-6m?

 

[Elios83]

Probably been asked countless times but I can't find the answer anywhere?

How much was the PS2 at when FFX released? 5-6m?

4.7m

SE did that comparison by themselves to explain why FFXIII will sell on the same level of PS2 titles according to them:

 

[Zoe]

Another 1.8 million article

(wtf is Takahashi Ai doing there :lol :lol :lol)

 

[Road]

Another 1.8 million article

(wtf is Takahashi Ai doing there :lol :lol :lol)

Pics:

It's funny to see the difference from lines in the summer and in the winter.

 

[Culex]

4.7m

SE did that comparison by themselves to explain why FFXIII will sell on the same level of PS2 titles according to them:

I don't know about that. It's almost 800k less than the PS2 had installed when X was released.

Are they really shooting for 45+ percent attach rate?

 

[Sage00]

:lol

 

[JudgeN]

I'm be the rebel, FFXIII will totally sell out of first shipment, going with a 2.2M LTD .

 

[schuelma]

So exciting.

Anyone have a clue what initial shipments were for FF12 and FF10?

Wonder if we'll get first day numbers a bit earlier than usual given how huge this is.

 

[[Nintex]]

Are they really shooting for 45+ percent attach rate?

Oh god, Wada has really lost it.

 

[u_neek]

4.7m

SE did that comparison by themselves to explain why FFXIII will sell on the same level of PS2 titles according to them:

Thanks

 

[schuelma]

Oh god, Wada has really lost it.

Well, retailers also have something to do with this. I think at the very least this means there are extremely high preorder numbers.

I'd also say this means an eventual LTD of around 1.8M is likely..just like MH Tri it will eventually sell that out even if not initially.

 

[u_neek]

.

 

[Rolf NB]

I don't know about that. It's almost 800k less than the PS2 had installed when X was released.

Are they really shooting for 45+ percent attach rate?

It's pretty wild. Then again, Halo 3 in the US did >50% in its opening month. So with the right game in the right place at the right time, crazy shit like that can sometimes happen.

 

[JudgeN]

I'm be the rebel, FFXIII will totally sell out of first shipment.



Going with a 2.2M LTD.

 

[kay]

If it was going to be a 1 million initial shipment... MGS4's was what, 600k? Less than double that should not have been believable, given the size of the franchises and all.

But ye, there will probably be some bomba talk about FF13 indeed, i think so too, and especially if FFXIII wont sell out the first shipment relatively quickly, just like what happend with Monster Hunter 3, where MH3 didnt sell out it's first shipment relatively quickly.

I would only consider a bomb to be something not selling up to publisher/retailer expectations and having a considerable price cut to get rid of stock. If it isn't both, I would probably say it doesn't deserve to be called one. Well, bomba or not, Square got a good chunk of yen from FF13.

Anyone have a clue what initial shipments were for FF12 and FF10?

X-2: 1.8 million shipped, 1,472,914 sold
XII: 2 million shipped, 1,840,397 sold
X: 2.14 million shipped, 1,749,737 sold

 

[Road]

So exciting.

Anyone have a clue what initial shipments were for FF12 and FF10?

Wonder if we'll get first day numbers a bit earlier than usual given how huge this is.

Apparently 2 million for XII: http://dol.dengeki.com/data/news/2006/03/16/92b70b987c010d0b957f99ee0ac3b781.html

Edit: beaten with better data.

 

[Sage00]

So exciting.

Anyone have a clue what initial shipments were for FF12 and FF10?

Wonder if we'll get first day numbers a bit earlier than usual given how huge this is.

"According to representatives from Squaresoft, Square Co. Ltd. shipped more than 2.14 million units of Final Fantasy X to the Japanese market on the day of the title's launch, yesterday."
http://uk.ps2.ign.com/articles/096/096716p1.html

Could only find a very vague 'over 2 million' from Wada for FFXII.
http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6146045.html

Woah, beaten badly.

 

[obonicus]

At least we're living in interesting times.

 

[onken]

The increased popularity in the Monster Hunter franchice definitely seemed to have translated over to the console though, since MH3 has sold near the double compared to MH2 on the PS2 has you say, that is true But maybe people expected a higher increase? But i dont know. And then there was also bomba talk about Monster Hunter 3 since it didnt manage to sell out it's first shipment (not yet at least).

Were they or weren't they expecting a higher increase? NSMB Wii was "obviously" going to sell similarly to the DS game (which it did), yet MH3 never got anywhere near the same expectations levied on it, despite a clear release window, loads of marketing, good reviews etc. An interesting duality.

 

[Opiate]

Well, retailers also have something to do with this. I think at the very least this means there are extremely high preorder numbers.

I'd also say this means an eventual LTD of around 1.8M is likely..just like MH Tri it will eventually sell that out even if not initially.

I think the attach rate really will be that high. I say it sells out through this entire shipment without squeaking some out a la MH3.

My basis for this belief: most recent PS3 games have pleasantly surprised in sales. Most Wii games have slightly or significantly disappointed in sales.

I'll just expect that trend to continue. Since it's such a hot topic, I'll throw my hat in with ~2M LTD.

 

[Elios83]

I don't know about that. It's almost 800k less than the PS2 had installed when X was released.

Are they really shooting for 45+ percent attach rate?

45% is the same attach ratio of FFX first shipment/ PS2 installed base.
Maybe they're expecting it to have a high attach rate but also that many people will buy the system for it.
We'll see what happens.

 

[Culex]

It's pretty wild. Then again, Halo 3 in the US did >50% in its opening month. So with the right game in the right place at the right time, crazy shit like that can sometimes happen.

I guess we'll see which sells more by Jan 1:

NSMBWii, or FFXIII!

And for those who say this setup isn't fair, remember that ALL main line FF games are heavily front loaded.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

X: 2.14 million shipped, 1,749,737 sold

I really don't get the 'OMG attach ratio, WTF' talk if that's the case.

 

[schuelma]

Were they or weren't they expecting a higher increase? NSMB Wii was "obviously" going to sell similarly to the DS game (which it did), yet MH3 never got anywhere near the same expectations levied on it, despite a clear release window, loads of marketing, good reviews etc. An interesting duality.

I don't know why we are trotting out this tired discussion yet again, but there is a pretty damn big difference between NSMB DS/Wii and the Monster Hunter franchise.

 

[[Nintex]]

It's pretty wild. Then again, Halo 3 in the US did >50% in its opening month. So with the right game in the right place at the right time, crazy shit like that can sometimes happen.

That's true, another game that was very close to a 50% attach rate worldwide was Super Smash Bros. Melee I think. That sucker just kept selling and selling up to 7 million units in the end. Considering that Nintendo sold 20 million cubes worldwide, that's one hell of an achievement.

 

[schuelma]

My basis for this belief: most recent PS3 games have pleasantly surprised in sales. Most Wii games have slightly or significantly disappointed in sales.
.

What exactly besides Vesperia are you thinking of?

 

[Sage00]

Were they or weren't they expecting a higher increase? NSMB Wii was "obviously" going to sell similarly to the DS game (which it did), yet MH3 never got anywhere near the same expectations levied on it, despite a clear release window, loads of marketing, good reviews etc. An interesting duality.

The Wii demographic has proven to be extremely similar to that of the DS, so NSMB was always going to go down as it did (and though you say there were no doubts, there were many skeptics here). A PSP franchise is a much different situation, and with MH's newfound popularity coming mainly from LAN multiplayer a console is not it's best match. It was by no means as surefire as NSMB was.

 

[schuelma]

I guess we'll see which sells more by Jan 1:

NSMBWii, or FFXIII!

And for those who say this setup isn't fair, remember that ALL main line FF games are heavily front loaded.

I think NSMB will win that pretty easily, unless FF12 has an insane first week.

 

[Opiate]

What exactly besides Vesperia are you thinking of?

RE5 was the other that came to mind, but Vesperia is a very big example. It's a very FF-esque franchise. I believe the FF fanbase has moved on to the PS3 en masse.

 

[schuelma]

RE5 was the other that came to mind, but Vesperia is a very big example. It's a very FF-esque franchise. I believe the FF fanbase has moved on to the PS3 en masse.

RE5 was almost 10 months ago.

And I agree people have been buying PS3's for FF13 since its release (which is why my hardware predictions are probably lower than most)..but I'm skeptical that the mainline franchise has quite as much pull as when FF12 hit.

 

[onken]

RE5 was the other that came to mind, but Vesperia is a very big example. It's a very FF-esque franchise. I believe the FF fanbase has moved on to the PS3 en masse.

RGG3 sold better than was generally expected, if I recall.

 

[test_account]

I would only consider a bomb to be something not selling up to publisher/retailer expectations and having a considerable price cut to get rid of stock. If it isn't both, I would probably say it doesn't deserve to be called one. Well, bomba or not, Square got a good chunk of yen from FF13.

Ye, i think it shall be interesting to see how FFXIII will sell and how long it will take before some stores eventually does a price cut. I also wonder what Square-Enix's sales is for FFXIII. But as you say, Square-Enix will get a good chunk of yen from FF13, i agree

Were they or weren't they expecting a higher increase? NSMB Wii was "obviously" going to sell similarly to the DS game (which it did), yet MH3 never got anywhere near the same expectations levied on it, despite a clear release window, loads of marketing, good reviews etc. An interesting duality.

I dont think that anyone (or at least not many people) here on NeoGAF expected MH3 to sell close to how Monster Hunter games on the PSP sold, is that what you mean with "the same expectations levied on it"? Or when you say "they", do you mean Capcom or people here on NeoGAF?

But from what i remember about the MH3 bomba talk was that someone expected higher MH3 sales because of the increased popularity in the Monster Hunter franchice. No one could know for sure how much the popularity of the Monster Hunter games on the PSP would affect a console MH game though. I guess that it variated from person to person, some expected higher MH3 sales while others expected about what MH3 actually sold If there will be bomba talk about FFXIII, i guess that it will be about the same, that someone expected higher sales for FFXIII while others expected about what FFXIII will sell

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[Sage00]

I'd say Disgaea 3 did pretty well.

 

[schuelma]

X-2: 1.8 million shipped, 1,472,914 sold
XII: 2 million shipped, 1,840,397 sold
X: 2.14 million shipped, 1,749,737 sold

Thanks!

 

[Bebpo]

I guess we'll see which sells more by Jan 1:

NSMBWii, or FFXIII!

And for those who say this setup isn't fair, remember that ALL main line FF games are heavily front loaded.

Doesn't matter, NSMB has already sold as much as FFXIII probably will week 1 and that's with a week headstart. No way FFXIII is catching up.

 

[markatisu]

Cannot wait for 1st day numbers, this is one time I think Square Enix is just out of their freaking minds. Stranger things have happened especially after the success of Vesparia.

 

[schuelma]

Cannot wait for 1st day numbers, this is one time I think Square Enix is just out of their freaking minds. Stranger things have happened especially after the success of Vesparia.

We'll see..I honestly have no clue anymore. This shipment, which make no mistake represents very high preorder numbers at the very least, is making me rethink things.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Cannot wait for 1st day numbers, this is one time I think Square Enix is just out of their freaking minds. Stranger things have happened especially after the success of Vesparia.

1,076,532 is my guess for day 1.

1,409,097 is week ending.

 

[test_account]

I don't know why we are trotting out this tired discussion yet again, but there is a pretty damn big difference between NSMB DS/Wii and the Monster Hunter franchise.

Do you mean the difference that a big draw to the Monster Hunter games is the portability and the local 4 player co-op play while with New Super Mario Bros there is almost a equally big draw when it comes to both the DS and the Wii? That NSMB for both the DS and Wii have a more equal draw, while with the Monster Hunter games, there the PSP games has a bigger draw compared to the console Monster Hunter games?

 

[Y2Kev]

Cannot wait for 1st day numbers, this is one time I think Square Enix is just out of their freaking minds. Stranger things have happened especially after the success of Vesparia.

This is pedantic but why do you keep saying "vesparia" :lol

 

[schuelma]

Do you mean the difference that a big draw to the Monster Hunter games is the portability and the local 4 player co-op play while with New Super Mario Bros there is almost a equally big draw when it comes to both the DS and the Wii? That NSMB for both the DS and Wii have a more equal draw, while with the Monster Hunter games, there the PSP games has a bigger draw compared to the console Monster Hunter games?

Yup

 

[markatisu]

This is pedantic but why do you keep saying "vesparia" :lol

Just typing fast and putting the wrong letter, does it bother you that much :lol

 

[test_account]

Yup

Ok, i thought that you ment it like that, i just wanted to ask to be sure I agree with what you say, i also think that there is a much more equally draw between NSMB for both the DS and the Wii compared to how the draw is between the Monster Hunter games for the PSP and the Monster Hunter games for the consoles

I am pretty curious about how much NSMB Wii's LTD will be when it is all said and done. I wonder if NSMB Wii will be a game like Wii Sports is/was, a game that a lot of people will buy when they also buy a Wii console, just like it is/was with Wii Sports. Could NSMB Wii be the new Wii Sports when it comes to the game(s) many people will buy when they also buy a Wii console?

EDIT: I fixed a typo.

 

[Road]

More from FFXIII launch (you can just look at the pics if you don't know any Japanese):
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1230593_1124.html?ref=rss
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1230592_1124.html?ref=rss
http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1230594_1124.html?ref=rss

Is it just me or does that dude look like translator guy?

 

[Rolf NB]

This is pedantic but why do you keep saying "vesparia" :lol

At this point vesparation, most likely.

And wow, I was not aware of that horse. It looks horse-like in a way.

 

[Road]

Looking at the software ratio for the week Nov 30-Dec 6 DS was in 3rd.

Time to go on Garaph and find out the last time that happened.

Edit: It happened when SSBB and DMC4 launched. I guess it's not that uncommon.

 

[WinFonda]

Is it just me or does that dude look like translator guy?

True, and the guy in the bottom left corner looks like Fumito Ueda