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[Elios83]

In that Famitsu article they say that they're aiming at 2m for FFXIII. I guess they mean LTD sales.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

The lines are long

It's going to be exciting next week.

 

[ReyBrujo]

Hmm... PS3 users don't look like playing a handheld while waiting. Maybe offering free downloads to those waiting would move a few PSPs around.

 

[duckroll]

Okay. 1.8 million is a HUGE initial shipment. Retailers can't afford for this to turn out to be like MH3, because unsold initial stock for a FF game = dead weight. I guess everyone decided to gamble big on the holiday season and on the FF brand name. So if it fails to clear 1.5 million first week now, there are NO excuses of "constrained supply" or "Square should have shipped more". This Friday will be INTERESTING!

 

[schuelma]

Okay. 1.8 million is a HUGE initial shipment. Retailers can't afford for this to turn out to be like MH3, because unsold initial stock for a FF game = dead weight. I guess everyone decided to gamble big on the holiday season and on the FF brand name. So if it fails to clear 1.5 million first week now, there are NO excuses of "constrained supply" or "Square should have shipped more". This Friday will be INTERESTING!

Good point. Friday is indeed going to be interesting. I could see it shocking everyone and almost selling out and I could see it "only" doing 1.3-1.4M first week.

 

[Vinnk]

It better have a MASSIVE opening week because by next week there will be used copies and store that ordered too many copies will be doing price cuts. This happens with all RPGs in every case, but if it is not the huge hit Square is counting on it is really putting the retailers in a bad place with stock they won't be able to move.

But who knows it may just be that massive. I have not seen a game so well advertised since.. well FFXII.

 

[sphinx]

Good point. Friday is indeed going to be interesting. I could see it shocking everyone and almost selling out and I could see it "only" doing 1.3-1.4M first week.

it was already questionable (and not long ago) if it would sell over a million LTD.

a nearly 2 million shipment is the biggest gamble ever this generation, any game, any territory.

This game could very well go the way of E.T.

 

[schuelma]

it was already questionable (and not long ago) if it would sell over a million LTD.

I don't know of many people thinking it wouldn't clear a million.

 

[BlazingDarkness]

it was already questionable (and not long ago) if it would sell over a million LTD.

a nearly 2 million shipment is the biggest gamble ever this generation, any game, any territory.

This game could very well go the way of E.T.

uhhh.. i don't think so

 

[schuelma]

And again, I would add- I assume there had to be very strong preorder numbers for that many copies to be shipped, so I don't think SE is flying quite as blind as some people think. Still..man that is high :lol

 

[cvxfreak]

I wasn't planning on checking the game stores out today, but I think I'll do just that while I finish up Christmas shopping. :lol

 

[BlazingDarkness]

And again, I would add- I assume there had to be very strong preorder numbers for that many copies to be shipped, so I don't think SE is flying quite as blind as some people think. Still..man that is high :lol

Weren't the preorders higher than FFXII? I think that was reported the other week somewhere

 

[Y2Kev]

Yeah I think Wada is laughing and handwringing somewhere going "yesss...yesssssss...1.8 MUHAUHAUHA"

 

[sphinx]

I don't know of many people thinking it wouldn't clear a million.

Sorry, I meant

" There were people doubting the game would sell over a million LTD "

Those weren't a few a year or two ago.

That way of thinking changed as the PS3 came to its own this last year but analysis of historical data here at neogaf sometimes pointed at FFXIII struggling to sell a million.

That or I have terrible memory and should STFU.

 

[schuelma]

Weren't the preorders higher than FFXII? I think that was reported the other week somewhere

One retailer reported that, don't think it was a general statement about the entire country.

 

[Y2Kev]

Still, I wonder if Square had some arrangement with retailers...we'll give you more DQ9 if you take more FFXIII, etc. 1.8 is totally crazy. I mean, I don't think square cares necessarily. but that's really absurd.

 

[RaijinFY]

it was already questionable (and not long ago) if it would sell over a million LTD.

What? :lol

 

[BlazingDarkness]

One retailer reported that, don't think it was a general statement about the entire country.

Maybe that report was reflective of the entire country, hence the insane shipment :lol

 

[schuelma]

Maybe that report was reflective of the entire country, hence the insane shipment :lol

I guess its possible. Wouldn't be the first time most of us were way off

 

[LINK.AGE76]

It would be epic if FF13 sells more than 2.5m ltd imo.

 

[donny2112]

It would be epic if FF13 sells more than 2.5m ltd imo.

AKA higher than all the PS2 Final Fantasys.

 

[Nirolak]

AKA higher than all the PS2 Final Fantasys.

Higher than every PS2 game except Dragon Quest VIII.

 

[Dragon]

AKA higher than all the PS2 Final Fantasys.

Hypotheticals are fun!

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Nov 30-Dec 6

01./00. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) - 936,734 / NEW
02./00. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (SEGA) - 284,883 / NEW
03./00. [PSP] Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam NEXT PLUS (Namco Bandai Games) - 237,652 / NEW
04./00. [WII] Samurai Warriors 3 (Koei) - 126,646 / NEW
05./01. [NDS] Prof. Layton and the Devil's Flute (Level 5) - 84,122 / 385,412 (-72%)
06./02. [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Friend Collection) (Nintendo) - 70,977 / 1,780,186 (+4%)
07./00. [WII] PokePark Wii: Pikachu's Big Adventure (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 57,185 / NEW
08./00. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 55,789 / NEW
09./03. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) - 52,303 / 994,431 (+9%)
10./00. [PSP] Tokimeki Memorial 4 (Konami) - 47,469 / NEW

11./05. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold/Soul Silver (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 36,520 / 3,058,221 (-1%)
12./00. [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 12 (Konami) - 34,343 / NEW
13./06. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 2: Threat of the Invaders - Fire/Blizzard (Level 5) - 29,662 / 688,766 (+20%)
14./00. [360] Assassin's Creed II (Ubisoft) - 28,085 / NEW
15./00. [WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes W (Namco Bandai Games) - 22,832 / NEW
16./00. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade: Bakutan Cyber Pegasus (Hudson) - 21,906 / NEW
17./10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 21,435 / 1,376,913 (+41%)
18./04. [WII] Momotarou Dentetsu 2010: Sengo Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Hudson) - 21,034 / 64,582 (-52%)
19./00. [NDS] Stitch! DS Rhythm and Ohana Adventure (Disney Interactive Studios) - 20,139 / NEW
20./07. [NDS] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 16,205 / 62,368 (-21%)
21./09. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Namco Bandai Games) - 15,841 / 61,485 (-3%)
22./00. [NDS] Monster Busters (Namco Bandai Games) - 15,658 / NEW
23./08. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) - 14,655 / 336,377 (-16%)
24./25. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 11,805 / 5,586,920 (+107%)
25./19. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX: Defenders of the Starry Sky (Square Enix) - 7,955 / 4,046,945 (-5%)
26./14. [WII] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Nintendo) - 7,920 / 66,154 (-16%)
27./23. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Narikiri Channel (Namco Bandai Games) - 7,709 / 42,128 (+12%)
28./21. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 7,571 / 1,093,586 (+6%)
29./00. [NDS] Cross Treasures (Square Enix) - 7,494 / NEW
30./12. [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Club o Tsukurou! 6: Pride of J (SEGA) - 7,393 / 133,548 (-44%)



Bar Chart Nov 30-Dec 6 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Nov 2-8, 2009
Nov 9-15, 2009
Nov 16-22, 2009
Nov 23-29, 2009

 

[thestopsign]

This is probably the longest Media-Create thread since around the PS3 and Wii launches.

 

[LINK.AGE76]

What are the chances NSMBds reaches 6m?

 

[donny2112]

What are the chances NSMBds reaches 6m?

It'd have to keep selling for a few more years. I don't think it will, personally, but I think Chris1964 does.

 

[Onesimos]

I never seem to understand why some games are front-loaded (they sell alot in their first day or week), then drop more than 50% the week latter. It seems to be a behavior typically found in high-profile "core" games not just in Japan.

I wonder: do "core" gamers felt the need to get their games in the first-day or week instead of waiting latter on?

Anyway, I predict that Final Fantasy XIII will sell at least one million copies in its first day of release, as anything less would be a disappointment. This game has the hype and marketing behind it and it would be a shame that they did not translate into huge sales.

 

[jett]

1.8 million shipment for FF13? I only have one thing to say.

Retailers OWNZZZ0RRRDD

 

[Jonnyram]

AKA higher than all the PS2 Final Fantasys.

That's not to say it's impossible, though.
I mean, neither of the (big) PS2 FFs launched at this time of year. FFX hit the PS2 on the crest of GT3's wave and FFXII hit in Spring. What FFXIII has going against it is a higher price point and a really fierce used market nowadays. I suppose they tried to combat that with the serial code for FFXIV item/beta, but I doubt it will help a great deal in the end.

 

[Vinnk]

I never seem to understand why some games are front-loaded (they sell alot in their first day or week), then drop more than 50% the week latter. It seems to be a behavior typically found in high-profile "core" games not just in Japan.

I wonder: do "core" gamers felt the need to get their games in the first-day or week instead of waiting latter on?

Some might need to get it the first day but a big reason for the dropoff is because core gamers shop at game stores that sell used games. If they aren't scrambling to get it the first day, they will get it a week later for 10% less or a month later for 30% less. Resale values are also really, really good. If someone buys the game at launch and beats it in a week they can get most of the cost of the game back when they sell it (compared to the states where you are lucky to get even close to half).

Meanwhile the people buying Mario Kart or Wii Sports are picking it up at department stores (which only sell new games), or toy stores when shopping for other things. Department store are DS and Wii (to a lesser extent) central. And most have much smaller sections for PSP and PS3 and only one department store in my city carries 360 at all.

I do not think this is said enough but core games usually do have good legs, people keep buying them for years. Just not new. My friend who works at a mom and pop game store in Japan told me about a copy of Fire Emblem that went though his store 5 times.

 

[cvxfreak]

Noticing that Taiko 2 is beginning to pick up, and not a moment too soon.

 

[mujun]

Duckroll suggested that I post my FFXIII purchasing experience in here.

I bought mine from Sofmap in central Osaka (a major store) and they still had hundreds of copies behind the counter on the shelves. That was about 30 minutes ago at 3pm Japan time.

They had also (amazingly) dropped the price to 7500 yen despite the fact they were originally selling it for 8300 yen or so. I have never seen a game's price dropped on the day it goes on sale the whole time I've been here so I was very pleasantly surprised as it is obviously a win for my wallet :lol

 

[markatisu]

Duckroll suggested that I post my FFXIII purchasing experience in here.

I bought mine from Sofmap in central Osaka (a major store) and they still had hundreds of copies behind the counter on the shelves. That was about 30 minutes ago at 3pm Japan time.

They had also (amazingly) dropped the price to 7500 yen despite the fact they were originally selling it for 8300 yen or so. I have never seen a game's price dropped on the day it goes on sale the whole time I've been here so I was very pleasantly surprised as it is obviously a win for my wallet :lol

So thats how they will move the 1.8m copies :lol

 

[Jonnyram]

Duckroll suggested that I post my FFXIII purchasing experience in here.

I bought mine from Sofmap in central Osaka (a major store) and they still had hundreds of copies behind the counter on the shelves. That was about 30 minutes ago at 3pm Japan time.

They had also (amazingly) dropped the price to 7500 yen despite the fact they were originally selling it for 8300 yen or so. I have never seen a game's price dropped on the day it goes on sale the whole time I've been here so I was very pleasantly surprised as it is obviously a win for my wallet :lol

PRICE COLLAPSE!!!

 

[LINK.AGE76]

Duckroll suggested that I post my FFXIII purchasing experience in here.

I bought mine from Sofmap in central Osaka (a major store) and they still had hundreds of copies behind the counter on the shelves. That was about 30 minutes ago at 3pm Japan time.

They had also (amazingly) dropped the price to 7500 yen despite the fact they were originally selling it for 8300 yen or so. I have never seen a game's price dropped on the day it goes on sale the whole time I've been here so I was very pleasantly surprised as it is obviously a win for my wallet :lol

In before bomba

 

[mujun]

Sofmap website lists the price as 8300 yen.

Here is my receipt just in case

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Duckroll suggested that I post my FFXIII purchasing experience in here.

I bought mine from Sofmap in central Osaka (a major store) and they still had hundreds of copies behind the counter on the shelves. That was about 30 minutes ago at 3pm Japan time.

They had also (amazingly) dropped the price to 7500 yen despite the fact they were originally selling it for 8300 yen or so. I have never seen a game's price dropped on the day it goes on sale the whole time I've been here so I was very pleasantly surprised as it is obviously a win for my wallet :lol

Oh man... sucks to be retailers right now...

 

[Y2Kev]

1.8 remains unbelievable. Cannot understand the thinking. Namcoesque stuffing.

 

[nextgeneration]

The original retail price was crazy expensive, but to drop in same day? I wonder how much retailers paid for each copy?

 

[Jonnyram]

The original retail price was crazy expensive, but to drop in same day? I wonder how much retailers paid for each copy?

A bunch of convenience stores dropped their prices pre-release actually. Probably more like price wars than bomba at this stage, as each retailer fights to get the customer. We'll see about bombas after the weekend.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

This is one of those situations where I'd recommend caution in terms of making predictions based on a single datum alone. This might just be a case of one bad pocket in a sea of robust sales. I'm holding to my 1.3M first week prediction for now.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Some might need to get it the first day but a big reason for the dropoff is because core gamers shop at game stores that sell used games. If they aren't scrambling to get it the first day, they will get it a week later for 10% less or a month later for 30% less. Resale values are also really, really good. If someone buys the game at launch and beats it in a week they can get most of the cost of the game back when they sell it (compared to the states where you are lucky to get even close to half).

Meanwhile the people buying Mario Kart or Wii Sports are picking it up at department stores (which only sell new games), or toy stores when shopping for other things. Department store are DS and Wii (to a lesser extent) central. And most have much smaller sections for PSP and PS3 and only one department store in my city carries 360 at all.

I do not think this is said enough but core games usually do have good legs, people keep buying them for years. Just not new. My friend who works at a mom and pop game store in Japan told me about a copy of Fire Emblem that went though his store 5 times.

Has that situation gotten "worse" over the years or is it still the same it's ever been? Why is the used game market in Japan much more prevalent than the US? And the developers already think it's a huge problem here so I would think JP developers think it's a huge problem there as well. Do they bitch about it and try to do something about it (say like Epic or EA tried to do by offering free DLC for people that buy the game new). I heard that there's no gamefly, blockbuster in Japan because renting a game is illegal over there, is that true? If so that might have something to do with it.

 

[Y2Kev]

This is one of those situations where I'd recommend caution in terms of making predictions based on a single datum alone. This might just be a case of one bad pocket in a sea of robust sales. I'm holding to my 1.3M first week prediction for now.

If there are 1.8 million copies on shelves, even extremely positive and healthy sales of 1.3 million are still going to leave 500,000 copies to sit on shelves. That'll result in a lot of copies to mark down over time... I don't think it's necessarily indicative of bomba or anything, but this will probably be the only shipment of FFXIII :lol

There's just not the demand I think.

I'm sure I'm not saying anything original here, but I wouldn't worry about the game just yet. I'm sure it will do pretty well in the end. But 1.8 million? Maybe if Wada is going to buy 500,000 copies and stick them in his basement...

 

[Nirolak]

1.8 remains unbelievable. Cannot understand the thinking. Namcoesque stuffing.

I wonder if retailers will ever start punishing Namco for its overstuffing.

After the two million copies of Tekken 6 despite retail sales seemingly worse than even Soul Calibur IV, I imagine Enslaved, Inversion, and Majin won't be getting many shipped copies.

 

[devilhawk]

Has that situation gotten "worse" over the years or is it still the same it's ever been? Why is the used game market in Japan much more prevalent than the US? And the developers already think it's a huge problem here so I would think JP developers think it's a huge problem there as well. Do they bitch about it and try to do something about it (say like Epic or EA tried to do by offering free DLC for people that buy the game new). I heard that there's no gamefly, blockbuster in Japan because renting a game is illegal over there, is that true? If so that might have something to do with it.

You actually get money when you sell a game back to the used game stores. In the US if you have a brand new $60 game unwrapped you are lucky to get half back.

 

[Key2001]

Sofmap website lists the price as 8300 yen.

Here is my receipt just in case

It is the same price at their website. They seem to be using some type of point system based on the price of the item and offer a discount depending on the amount of points.

FFXIII being priced at 8,300 Yen has 830 point which is gives a 10% discount. Another example is DQVI for NDS, it is priced 5,380 Yen and listed as having 538 points under the price(also gives a 10% discount).

 

[Brofist]

Has that situation gotten "worse" over the years or is it still the same it's ever been? Why is the used game market in Japan much more prevalent than the US? And the developers already think it's a huge problem here so I would think JP developers think it's a huge problem there as well. Do they bitch about it and try to do something about it (say like Epic or EA tried to do by offering free DLC for people that buy the game new). I heard that there's no gamefly, blockbuster in Japan because renting a game is illegal over there, is that true? If so that might have something to do with it.

Thats right it's because there is no rental market in Japan, so buying and getting a nice chunk of your money back the next week is the next best thing.

As far as the price lowering, it's just competition. With the high retail price. there is room to play with. Even DQIX was found at sub 5000 yen prices at some retail at launch.

 

[mujun]

It is the same price at their website. They seem to be using some type of point system based on the price of the item and offer a discount depending on the amount of points.

FFXIII being priced at 8,300 Yen has 830 point which is gives a 10% discount. Another example is DQVI for NDS, it is priced 5,380 Yen and listed as having 538 points under the price(also gives a 10% discount).

That's not how it works. Usually Sofmap online and instore prices are the same but you get 10% points on games if you order online as opposed to 1% if you buy in store.

 

[onken]

One retailer reported that, don't think it was a general statement about the entire country.

Yeah it was Tatsuya over a month ago, so pretty indicative, imo.

Either way, can't wait for the numbers