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[Souldriver]

I honestly don't understand what you are saying here.

I'm saying that I think predicting this years sales based on how they were last year is not sound. I give a few reasons why I think this is the case, and to end I say I don't thrust gafs predictions recently because most people still have last year's situation in the back of their head.

 

[schuelma]

I'm saying that I think predicting this years sales based on how they were last year is not sound. I give a few reasons why I think this is the case, and to end I say I don't thrust gafs predictions recently because most people still have last year's situation in the back of their head.

Now we're just repeating the discussion from the last few weeks, but the Wii hardware sales are very comparable right now to 2007 and 2008. The only difference right now is the PS3 is higher (though I would add that last year for the week of 11/24-11/30, PS3 sales went up to 35K so I don't think the difference going into December is going to be that big)

 

[Souldriver]

Now we're just repeating the discussion from the last few weeks, but the Wii hardware sales are very comparable right now to 2007 and 2008. The only difference right now is the PS3 is higher (though I would add that last year for the week of 11/24-11/30, PS3 sales went up to 35K so I don't think the difference going into December is going to be that big)

I'm not trying to repeat old discussions. I hardly ever contribute to these threads anyway. You're just asking me to clarify my opinion.

I think the main difference between you (and most of gaf) and me is that I think PS3 and Wii sales are two communicating barrels: if one goes up, it's bound to have a negative effect on the other one. While you (and most of sales gaf) seem to agree they are comparative goods instead of substitutes. There's a good chance my intuition is flat out wrong.

 

[Rolf NB]

I realize that there is a lot of new found faith in Sony, but I find the notion that the PS3 is going to rise to 80K going into December on the back of zero big software releases (probably the biggest release until FF13 is Modern Warfare 2) very very unlikely.

The PS3 is not riding the downslope of a particular bump anymore, what it currently sells is the "normal" rate now. Price cut/slim launch really is far enough back for that view. I believe the ratios have settled in by now. The holidays will provide a significant rise for both systems. There's a point to be made about Nintendo consoles having fared disproportionally well in the holiday season historically (at least in the west), but that alone won't make their positions flip again.

If I'm wrong, you will receive my apology in January.

 

[schuelma]

There's a point to be made about Nintendo consoles having fared disproportionally well in the holiday season historically (at least in the west), but that alone won't make their positions flip again.

Nintendo receives a nice bump during the holiday's in Japan as well. I keep saying this, but look at last years numbers if you want to see how well Nintendo can do- the Wii had December weeks of 57, 92, 131, and 135K- and this was with the biggest game released that month being Taiko Wii! (Animal Crossing came out in late November).

 

[onken]

Now we're just repeating the discussion from the last few weeks, but the Wii hardware sales are very comparable right now to 2007 and 2008. The only difference right now is the PS3 is higher (though I would add that last year for the week of 11/24-11/30, PS3 sales went up to 35K so I don't think the difference going into December is going to be that big)

It only bumped that week because that's when WE09 came out. The holiday bump didn't start till Dec 15-22.

 

[schuelma]

It only bumped that week because that's when WE09 came out. The holiday bump didn't start till Dec 15-22.

I realize that, but it stayed at 30-40K for the rest of the year. I don't think PS3 will be much above 50K at the start of December.

 

[Road]

Does a heavy hitter from Nintendo cause a big spike in hardware sales? Isn't it more a long-term modest bump normally?

Sales for the weeks before, during and after the mentioned games releases:

Wii:

74,544
94,473 (SSBB - 816,000 - 2008-01-31)
81,737

44,618
46,296 (MKWii - 608,000 - 2008-04-10)
44,241


DS:

177.049
289.151 (NSMB - 865,000 - 2006-05-25)
136.773

Answer to your question: god knows what NSMB will do for the Wii.

Caveat: I'm not sure if there was any other meaningful event during the week NSMB launched on DS.

 

[Yoboman]

I realize that there is a lot of new found faith in Sony, but I find the notion that the PS3 is going to rise to 80K going into December on the back of zero big software releases (probably the biggest release until FF13 is Modern Warfare 2) very very unlikely.

Wii doubled it's units moved last year with no software releases. All the hardware had effectively doubled over this current period last year when comparing to early December

And I think Assassin's Creed 2, MW2 and the new Ratchet are more than sufficient to hold over PS3's momentum until the big one

 

[schuelma]

Wii doubled it's units moved last year with no software releases. All the hardware had effectively doubled over this current period last year when comparing to early December

And I think Assassin's Creed 2, MW2 and the new Ratchet are more than sufficient to hold over PS3's momentum until the big one

What weeks are you talking about re: Wii hardware doubling last year? In the post you are citing I was only talking about the next 2 weeks leading into December.

 

[onken]

Wii doubled it's units moved last year with no software releases. All the hardware had effectively doubled over this current period last year when comparing to early December

And I think Assassin's Creed 2, MW2 and the new Ratchet are more than sufficient to hold over PS3's momentum until the big one

That's a nice theory except those 3 games will probably sell about 10 copies combined. Well MW2 might do OK but I highly doubt people will go out and buy a console for it.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

I'm so tired of this DS iLL abreveatiom. I just want to run someone over it's so stuuuuuuuuuupid!!!!!!!

 

[schuelma]

That's a nice theory except those 3 games will probably sell about 10 copies combined. Well MW2 might do OK but I highly doubt people will go out and buy a console for it.

I think MW2 is going to do pretty well- like maybe 50-75K first week. But yeah it won't move any hardware.

 

[Sage00]

PS3 doesn't need any games before FF. It has FF. That alone will sell consoles before FF. Remember the bump in 360 sales in the short run up to SO4? Or ToV? Multiply that by 10.

 

[Somnid]

I'm so tired of this DS iLL abreveatiom. I just want to run someone over it's so stuuuuuuuuuupid!!!!!!!

It's Anihawk's fault.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...

Something slightly new this week. Raggy suggested adding a bit more context, and it seemed like a good idea. Now instead of just showing where one system compares to some other system's weeks, it also shows how much the number has changed. So you can see PS3 making great strides in GCN weeks, for instance. Hopefully the addition of another bit of (parenthetical data) doesn't make it much harder to read.

PSP comparisons: After 257 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 199.2 (+0.3) weeks (December 22, 2003), where DS was at 106.0 (+0.2) weeks (December 10, 2006), and where GBA was at 178.3 (+0.9) weeks (August 17, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 205 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 21.1 (+0.3) weeks (February 3, 2002), where PS3 was at 42.9 (+0.3) weeks (September 1, 2007), and where Wii was at 6.2 (+0.0) weeks (January 9, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 157 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 59.9 (+1.3) weeks (April 22, 2001), where PSP was at 87.3 (+1.0) weeks (August 8, 2006), where GCN was at 205.7 (+14.3) weeks (August 19, 2005), and where Wii was at 50.9 (+1.2) weeks (November 17, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 154 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 104.8 (+0.2) weeks (March 22, 2003), where DS was at 80.3 (+0.1) weeks (June 13, 2006), where PS2 was at 125.9 (+0.3) weeks (July 27, 2002), and where PSP was at 174.3 (+0.3) weeks (April 8, 2008).

DSi comparisons: After 54 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 76.8 (+0.9) weeks (July 31, 2004) and where DSL was at 25.3 (+0.2) weeks (August 22, 2006).

PSPgo comparisons: After 2 weeks, PSPgo is where GBm was at 0.3 (+0.1) weeks (September 13, 2005).

Based on this week's Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 46.2 / 53.8 bring total shares to 68.2 / 31.8. At this week's rates PSP catches up in 2,351.4 weeks (December 9, 2054). If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 333.6 weeks (April 8, 2016).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 9.7 / 90.3 bring total shares to 23.3 / 76.7. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 645.4 weeks (March 30, 2022).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 59.1 / 40.9 bring total shares to 30.5 / 69.5. At this week's rates, PS3 catches up to Wii in 413.3 weeks (October 18, 2017). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 126.9 weeks (April 22, 2012).

Week over week, everything is down, but PS3 slightly more than average coming from a Winning Eleven bump.

Through the first forty-six weeks of the year, overall sales are down. However, the systems can be split into camps of 3 up and 3 down. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -47.8%
DSL+DSi: +6.9%
PS2: -55.6%
PS3: +54.3%
PSP+PSPGo: -42.6%
X360: +35.0%

Home hardware: -22.5%
Portable hardware: -19.9%

Nintendo hardware: -17.7%
Sony hardware: -27.8%

Sum of all hardware: -20.4%

Last year:

This year:

PS3 could stop now and still have its best Media Create year yet:

PS3 doesn't need any games before FF. It has FF. That alone will sell consoles before FF.

Yeah, but I thought that's what the 2006-2008 purchases were about.

 

[Chris1964]

I guess first day sales were so bad that no insider from Japan cared to provide them.

I'm not sure if there was any other meaningful event during the week NSMB launched on DS.

The only reason DS sales went up during the NSMB DS week was that Nintendo had a bigger DS shipment for the specific release.

 

[charlequin]

Yeah, but I thought that's what the 2006-2008 purchases were about.

I think that's what the 2006 purchases were about (not so much the 2007 and 2008 ones) and it's probably what quite a few of these current post-Slim purchases are about too. Unless you're holding out for the Limited Edition there isn't really much reason to hold out until the game's release.

I think the main difference between you (and most of gaf) and me is that I think PS3 and Wii sales are two communicating barrels: if one goes up, it's bound to have a negative effect on the other one.

Historically speaking, consoles simply don't seem to be substitutiary goods -- spikes don't tend to correlate with valleys. Wii started tanking long before PS3 rose up to pick up the slack, and Wii picked up a bit more steam relative to its previous weekly baseline at around the same time the PS3 did (due to its own pricedrop.)

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The only reason DS sales went up during the NSMB DS week was that Nintendo had a bigger DS shipment for the specific release.

Which itself seemed to be possible by them holding back some a few weeks before.

NSMB week is in the middle. Two weeks earlier was DS's lowest week in the April/May/June/July period by more than 30K.

 

[Yoboman]

That's a nice theory except those 3 games will probably sell about 10 copies combined. Well MW2 might do OK but I highly doubt people will go out and buy a console for it.

Both AC and Tools of Destruction have lifetime sales of nearly 100k on PS3 in Japan. AC opened at roughly 40k IIRC

Modern Warfare closer to 200k apparently.

They will all crack the top 10 in their opening weeks. Not hardware movers but still releases of note.

 

[Chris1964]

And I think Assassin's Creed 2, MW2 and the new Ratchet are more than sufficient to hold over PS3's momentum until the big one

If PS3 maintains its momentum these three games are the least reason for that. And especially Ratchet. Did you just list every upcoming game? Because these are all PS3 new game releases until Dec 17 (FF XIII). Everything else is budget re-release. That the game is good doesn't automatically mean it will sell great. It will bomb hard.

 

[Yoboman]

If PS3 maintains its momentum these three games are the least reason for that. And especially Ratchet. Did you just list every upcoming game? Because these are all PS3 new game releases until Dec 17 (FF XIII). Everything else is budget re-release. That the game is good doesn't automatically mean it will sell great. It will bomb hard.

Calling them hold over games is hardly indicating that they are supposed to set the world alight. Merely contribute.

 

[Serenity]

If PS3 maintains its momentum these three games are the least reason for that. And especially Ratchet. Did you just list every upcoming game? Because these are all PS3 new game releases until Dec 17 (FF XIII). Everything else is budget re-release. That the game is good doesn't automatically mean it will sell great. It will bomb hard.

You said the same thing bout Uncharted 2 as well. And have been predicting Ps3 sales to drop for two months now due to no major releases till FF13 but here we are two months later and you will not waver. I admire your devotion.

 

[Stumpokapow]

You said the same thing bout Uncharted 2 as well. And have been predicting Ps3 sales to drop for two months now due to no major releases till FF13 but here we are two months later and you will not waver. I admire your devotion.

"You were previously wrong, therefor you are going to be wrong" is a pretty shitty argument against anybody. People who are habitually incorrect generally have errors enough in their logic that you can point those out rather than just spitting out that they have bad judgment and moving on.

 

[Chris1964]

You said the same thing bout Uncharted 2 as well. And have been predicting Ps3 sales to drop for two months now due to no major releases till FF13 but here we are two months later and you will not waver. I admire your devotion.

First find where I said that Uncharted 2 will bomb hard and then where I say for the last two months that PS3 sales will drop.

 

[Chris1964]

Still nothing Serenity? I'll be logged in for about two hours more. I hope you will find something until then. I don't have that many posts.

 

[donny2112]

Caveat: I'm not sure if there was any other meaningful event during the week NSMB launched on DS.

There was. It was called "stock in stores." That was in the midst of the 18 month DS shortages. You can't tell anything about NSMB's impact on DS that week except that Nintendo had held back stock for its release.

Historically speaking, consoles simply don't seem to be substitutiary goods -- spikes don't tend to correlate with valleys.

Remember when PSP would go up a few K during the early part of the DS shortages? That was customers walking in for a DS and deciding to buy a PSP instead. /monorojo

 

[Parmenides]

Final Fantasy XIII Pre-orders Outpacing FFXII

Tsutaya "Game Recycle Planning Group" Leader Taketo Matsuo, who heads up game operations at the retailer's 450 nationwide game shops (he's also a big fighting game fan, having apparently purchased two Neo Geo CD systems), wrote about FFXIII's initial success yesterday in a December market forecast column at Mainichi.jp. A month ahead of release, and Tsutaya pre-orders for FFXIII have already surpassed total pre-orders for FFXII. Matsuo expects FFXIII to be the big title for the year-end sales rush and easily cross the million mark.In addition to a sale surge from FFXIII, the PS3's could get a boost this year from HD televisions. A bonus-fueled spike in television set demand is expected for the end of the year, says Matsuo, and this could give a push to Sony's system.

Matsuo is excited about the year-end game lineup as a whole. He feels that last year's holiday season was harsh, despite strong sales of Dissidia Final Fantasy. This year's lineup, in contrast, is something that happens only "once in ten years,"as new Final Fantasy, Mario, and Zelda titles join long sellers like Dragon Quest IX and Pokemon Heart Gold and Soul Silver. He expects particular success this year for consoles.
Outside of FFXIII, Matsuo expects New Super Mario Bros. Wii to be a big hit, topping the million mark.

He's also keeping an eye out on PokePark Wii, Wii's new Pokemon game. Tsutaya will be wrapping PokePark in Pokemon wrapping paper, helping to push the game as a Christmas gift.

Matsuo's predictions for December's top 10 looks like this:

1. Final Fantasy XIII (PS3)
2. New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Wii)
3. Zelda Spirit Tracks (DS)
4. Gundam VS Gundam Next Plus (PSP)
5. Phantasy Star Portable 2 (PSP)
6. Professor Layton and the Demon's Flute (DS)
7. Tales of Graces (Wii)
8. Winning Eleven 2010 (PSP)
9. Winning Eleven 2010 (PS2)
10. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (PS3)

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/11/17/tsutaya_december_sales_column/

http://mainichi.jp/enta/mantan/news/20091116mog00m200041000c.html



Yoichi Wada Not Worried About Final Fantasy XIII Sales

Wada, speaking during a financial briefing on the 5th, rejected the possibility of FFXIII not selling well domestically.

According to IT Media, Wada used the sales patterns of FFX and FFXII to support his case for strong FFXIII sales. When FFX was released in 2001, the PS2 had a user base of 4.7 million systems domestically. The game went on to sell 2.3 million units in its first three months of release. Years later, at the time of FFXII's 2006 release, the PS2 had a 18.9 million unit user base. FFXII sold 2.2 million units, or around the same level of FFX.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/11/06/wada_expects_strong_ffxiii_sales/

http://www.itmedia.co.jp/news/articles/0911/05/news102.html

 

[Chris1964]

Thanks for finding them but all these have been posted again.

 

[Spiegel]

First find where I said that Uncharted 2 will bomb hard and then where I say for the last two months that PS3 sales will drop.

First one is easy:

- I guess you are saying Ratchet will bomb hard based on the sales of the first Ratchet. Am I wrong?
- Uncharted 1 in 13 months sold close to Ratchet in 2 months. 62k vs 50k (media-create). Ratchet didn't make it to the TOP 500 in 2008 (cutout was ~20k) but even if Ratchet sold 0 copies in 2008, sales would still be very close.
- In October you said:

According to Media Create it's 16.702 / 62.664. Anyone expecting 100K LTD for Uncharted 2 better be ready for big disappointment.

So when you implied that 100k LTD for U2 was impossible, it's pretty obvious that you were expecting roughly the same performance from U2.

If selling ~50/60k (guessing the final LTD for Ratchet 2) is bombing hard for you, then it's fair to assume that you were expecting U2 to bomb hard.

Now, if you are expecting Ratchet 2 to sell significantly less than Ratchet 1, excuse me and forget this post

 

[test_account]

I don't know, but I remember seeing a graph which showed iPod sales from each region a while back.

"Roughly 100 eager customers lined up in front of a Japanese Apple Store today to get their hands on the company's new iPod touch, signaling high demand for the portable player in that region." - http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/10/05/ipod.touch.in.japan/

Couldn't find any detailed figures, but if somebody has them, they'd be appreciated.

Ah ok.

100 people lining up outside one store is good indeed i must say, but unfortunately it is mostly anecdote evidence :\ But thanks for the link to the article! People also seemed lined up to buy the PSP Go at launch (maybe not as many as 100 people outside one store though, and maybe not everyone in the line was going to buy a PSP Go, but some people lined up at least ), but after 3 weeks, the PSP Go sales hasnt exactly been very high, at least compared to how several of other gaming systems are selling in Japan. Maybe you have already seen it, but here is some pictures from the PSP Go launch in Japan:

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1229105_1124.html (the url must be manually inserted into a browser, clicking directly on the url wont work i think)

But as you said, if someone has some detailed figures on how much iPod Touch has sold in Japan, i would aslo be interested in these numbers I wonder how the PSP Go sales compares to other download-only devices sales in Japan.

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[PantherLotus]

Hello peeps. Can anybody give me a quick rundown of what happened this year?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Hello peeps. Can anybody give me a quick rundown of what happened this year?

dragonawiiisfucked.jpg

 

[Chris1964]

Now, if you are expecting Ratchet 2 to sell significantly less than Ratchet 1, excuse me and forget this post

That's what I expect. But 20K more or less from what I predict is not important. With Uncharted 2 I was indeed expecting lower sales from what it actually sold but not the disastrous sales I expect from Ratchet and never called it a bomb. More important is the continuous supposed prediction I do the last two months about the PS3 sales.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Wii vs PS3 YTD

2009 last 3 weeks

27.000 - 37.000
24.000 - 43.000
23.000 - 33.000

2008 comparison

25.000 - 36.000
29.000 - 26.000
31.000 - 23.000

(left Wii, right PS3)

Wii sales during Wii Music release : 25.000 (previous 25.000)
Wii sales during AC WW release : 40.000 (previous 31.000)
Wii sales during Wii Fit release : 71.000 (previous 47.000)

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Both AC and Tools of Destruction have lifetime sales of nearly 100k on PS3 in Japan. AC opened at roughly 40k IIRC

Modern Warfare closer to 200k apparently.

Assassin's Creed and Modern Warfare aren't far off those, especially with some amount of off-chart growth. But you must have Tools of Destruction doubled there. It failed to make the 2008 Top 500, so it can't have ended up too much past this, which goes through the end of 2007:

With the exception of the second being a bit lower than the third and fourth, R&C is a series that has basically been trending down with time.

Hello peeps. Can anybody give me a quick rundown of what happened this year?

 

[PantherLotus]

dragonawiiisfucked.jpg

what is this.

 

[velvet_nitemare]

what is this.

An jpg Dragona posted in MC threads regarding wii sales for a while. Too lazy to find it.

 

[donny2112]

An jpg Dragona posted in MC threads regarding wii sales for a while. Too lazy to find it.

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

As for the Wii this year, the idea is that there's DS, and then everyone else basically stinks. Wii has dropped down to that level, but it doesn't mean everyone else stinks less. I believe JoshuaJSlone had an appropriate graph for software sales this year with this concept portrayed quite nicely.

 

[PantherLotus]

I always thought it was pretty obvious the Wii couldn't achieve what the PS2 did if only because of that giant first party standing in the way and it being so technically far behind the 360/PS3 platforms. That will always be the problem with this and future Nintendo machines, unless you consider the DS to be a success (for all parties).

 

[velvet_nitemare]

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

A consequence of it's sales downturn from previous high's, no.

 

[gerg]

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

If the Wii achieved, say, 15-16 million sales in Japan, would that be considered a failure? Would achieving those numbers be likely or very unlikely?

 

[gkryhewy]

A consequence of it's sales downturn from previous high's, no.

holy's fuck's

 

[Chris1964]

If the Wii achieved, say, 15-16 million sales in Japan, would that be considered a failure? Would achieving those numbers be likely or very unlikely?

Everytings depends on 2010. If Iwata's words about an aggresive year in Japan are followed by actions there is a chance for Wii to hit these numbers. If 2010 is another lost year 15 million are a very far dream.

 

[cw_sasuke]

If the Wii achieved, say, 15-16 million sales in Japan, would that be considered a failure? Would achieving those numbers be likely or very unlikely?

At this point ? Very unlikely imo.

 

[donny2112]

A consequence of it's sales downturn from previous high's, no.

The drop from the previous highs before Fall 2007? Yes. The drop this year? No. The inability to reach PS2 level in Japan was already set before this year.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

As for the Wii this year, the idea is that there's DS, and then everyone else basically stinks. Wii has dropped down to that level, but it doesn't mean everyone else stinks less. I believe JoshuaJSlone had an appropriate graph for software sales this year with this concept portrayed quite nicely.

I think you mean these:
http://joshuajamesslone.name/images/date/20091008famitsusoft2009.png
http://joshuajamesslone.name/images/date/20091008famitsusoft2009dsother.png
A month out of date now, but hey--new to him.

 

[gerg]

Everytings depends on 2010. If Iwata's words about an aggresive year in Japan are followed by actions there is a chance for Wii to hit these numbers. If 2010 is another lost year 15 million are a very far dream.

Out of curiosity, how far is the Wii behind the PS2 in actual units?

 

[velvet_nitemare]

The inability to reach PS2 level in Japan was already set before this year.

oh, ok.

 

[Chris1964]

Out of curiosity, how far is the Wii behind the PS2 in actual units?

Too far. Forget PS2

WII: 8.712.330
PS2: 21.590.604