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[donny2112]

I think you mean these:
http://joshuajamesslone.name/images/date/20091008famitsusoft2009.png

That one. Thanks.

 

[thestopsign]

So I'm really confused. Where are the first day sales?

 

[gerg]

Too far. Forget PS2

WII: 8.712.330
PS2: 21.590.604

I get the point. :lol

Back to my original point, would selling 15 million units be considered a failure? Also, by comparison (and I do think that this may be a fairer comparison), what did the PS1 sell LTD? (I don't mean this by way of lowered expectations, but in that the Wii may be a console that establishes the market leader and the Wii 2 is one that consolidates their dominance.)

 

[schuelma]

So I'm really confused. Where are the first day sales?

There weren't any. I think Taiko Wii 2 was the only notable release..maybe sales were really low?

 

[Vinci]

Back to my original point, would selling 15 million units be considered a failure? Also, by comparison (and I do think that this may be a fairer comparison), what did the PS1 sell LTD? (I don't mean this by way of lowered expectations, but in that the Wii may be a console that establishes the market leader and the Wii 2 is one that consolidates their dominance.)

The PS1 makes a lot more sense, yeah.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think based on the criteria of missed opportunity, 15 million Wiis would be a failure to Nintendo.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Wii isn't really behaving like PS1. PS1 started off slow and then really shot off a couple years after launch when things like FF VII started hitting. Wii started off hot, but it's about that two-years-after-launch time when they started having trouble finding the Next Big Thing.

Since I don't have decent weekly numbers for PS1 here's a shipment comparison--but do note both PS1 and PS2 numbers are Sony's old production numbers, so not perfectly comparable to the actual shipment numbers everyone uses today.

Come to think of it, perhaps PSP is not so unlike PS1. It too took a few years before it really shot off. Wii is still ahead of where PSP was at the same age, but that could change next year.

 

[gerg]

I think based on the criteria of missed opportunity, 15 million Wiis would be a failure to Nintendo.

Yeah, I think I would have to agree with this.

The PS1 makes a lot more sense, yeah.

In a way, however, I think the comparison is somewhat disingenuous. Just because the Wii 2 may sell even better than the Wii doesn't mean that the Wii could be selling better than it is. The analogy was wrong.

 

[jcm]

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

As for the Wii this year, the idea is that there's DS, and then everyone else basically stinks. Wii has dropped down to that level, but it doesn't mean everyone else stinks less. I believe JoshuaJSlone had an appropriate graph for software sales this year with this concept portrayed quite nicely.

I guess Dragona can speak for herself, but I'm pretty sure you've mischaracterized her point. As I understand it, the point of wiifucked.jpg is that Nintendo had a hit product, executed poorly, and now its sales are weak.

MS and Sony's poor performance isn't particularly germane.

 

[Chris1964]

Since tomorrow launches the DSi LL here are some retailers comments.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2009/11/21/retailers_on_dsill_release/

Basically they say a first day sellout is possible (150K shipment), followed by big sales as Christmas approaches.

 

[charlequin]

Basically they say a first day sellout is possible (150K shipment), followed by big sales as Christmas approaches.

That can't be right. No one wants the LL and it definitely isn't a contributor to the lowered weekly sales of the DSi since it was announced!

 

[thestopsign]

That can't be right. No one wants the LL and it definitely isn't a contributor to the lowered weekly sales of the DSi since it was announced!

I know you are being sarcastic, but I'm sure Nintendo wouldn't have made the thing if there wasn't demand for it somewhere, so I will not be surprised if it does well like the retailers are suggesting.

 

[Vinci]

In a way, however, I think the comparison is somewhat disingenuous. Just because the Wii 2 may sell even better than the Wii doesn't mean that the Wii could be selling better than it is. The analogy was wrong.

To go from non-existent to market leader, with the baggage Nintendo had coming into this generation and still have? I think PS1 makes more sense than any other comparison. Yes, it's not 1:1 but it's certainly closer than Wii to PS2.

 

[onipex]

The PS3 might beat the Wii YTD. I don't think it will really matter outside of sales threads and fanboys though. If support was moving to the Wii ( I doubt it was) the PS3 beating its YTD would not change that. The Wii has a much higher LTD so moving from Wii to PS3 after one a one year win for PS3 is just stupid.


The Wii has two bundles and big releases next month. That may be enough to keep it at a higher LTD, but time will tell.

 

[donny2112]

but I'm pretty sure you've mischaracterized her point.

The reason I point it out each time it is brought up is that the way it's brought up is usually mischaracterizing it. We discussed it in a previous Media Create thread specifically because it didn't make sense that Wii was generally screwed considering it's the console market leader in hardware and software sales. She clarified that the Wii was screwed in the sense of being able to match up to the PS2 in hardware/software in Japan, and I completely agree with her on that point.

 

[Liabe Brave]

Wow, that's a powerful image. Even given all the caveats, that's a very clear picture of "the next PS2" irrevocably switching tracks and becoming "the next PS1". Whoever you want to blame for it--Nintendo, third parties, consumers--it's shocking. Especially compared to the continued great success in other regions.

 

[kswiston]

Wii will need to sell about 700k in December to have a chance at 2M YTD (something I doubt will happen personally). 2M YTD will put the Wii at ~9.5M LTD. To hit 15M the Wii will need 3 more years with sales equal to or better than this year in Japan. Based on the Wii's YTD drops since 2007 (3.6M>2.8M>maybe 2M), 15M LTD isn't happening.

PS2's last ~2 million selling year was 2005. After that point the PS2 only managed to sell another 3 million units (well 2.9M but it is still selling, so 3M eventually). If post 2009 Wii behaves exactly the same as post 2005 PS2, final LTD will be 12.5 million. I am going to guess that the actual final LTD will be closer to 14M though. PS2 only got 10 more months of sales without competition from next gen consoles after 2005 (not counting 360). My guess is that we will see next gen consoles hitting by the end of 2011, giving the Wii 2 more years. That extra year will help sales.

14M LTD is not bad overall, but it is more than a little disappointing when the former fastest selling console ever in Japan looks to be heading towards ninth place in total LTD sales, behind the NES, SNES, PS1, PS2, Gameboy, GBA, DS, and PSP.

EDIT: PS1 production shipments ended at 20.6M for Japan. I can't find actual LTD sales, but I would imagine that it was well over 15M.

 

[BishopLamont]

Still no first day sales? Were they that bad? :lol

 

[Rolf NB]

Wow, that's a powerful image. Even given all the caveats, that's a very clear picture of "the next PS2" irrevocably switching tracks and becoming "the next PS1".

LTDs roughly match, but it clearly sells slower than the PS1 did at the same point in its lifetime. If you just continue the trend line, it's going to fall below quickly.

Whoever you want to blame for it--Nintendo, third parties, consumers--it's shocking. Especially compared to the continued great success in other regions.

The Wii has never been more attractive. It's the competition that improved their arguments (faster).

 

[Allan Holdsworth]

I'm guessing, going by the GBC and DSi, that a WiiHD (not Wii2) would get combined with the Wii If so, a higher LTD is possible.

 

[Parl]

The reason I point it out each time it is brought up is that the way it's brought up is usually mischaracterizing it. We discussed it in a previous Media Create thread specifically because it didn't make sense that Wii was generally screwed considering it's the console market leader in hardware and software sales. She clarified that the Wii was screwed in the sense of being able to match up to the PS2 in hardware/software in Japan, and I completely agree with her on that point.

Wii could pull a DS with the right software, but software like that is rare. It'd be so difficult considering the Japanese market not responding as well to Nintendo's big Wii games as they have to their DS games.

A game as big as Brain Training, Animal Crossing, or New Super Mario Bros, or several high scale releases that target markets not currently captured by Wii could put Wii up, but that's a difficult thing to achieve.

Wii Fit helped Wii in Japan, but the market for that isn't THAT far removed from that of Wii Sports. And Wii Sports Resort and Wii Fit Plus even less so. Wii Music and Animal Crossing Wii were rejected worldwide (in terms of being collossal sellers, they still sold very, very well compared to over 99% of games).

I don't like to look at games in isolation. Monster Hunter 3 sold systems, but most people who bought it probably saw some value in Wii otherwise. A bigger game would capture people on the fence, those who see a good bit of value but decide that it's not worth it, and some who saw some value in Wii, and even some who didn't see much they were interested in about it. This is why several big releases together make a bigger affect than if they're seperated.

On saying that, I think New Super Mario Bros. Wii will appeal to many people who currently don't own a Wii. It's the definition of a video game, still a hugely popular series, and even console versions have traditionally sold better than handheld ones, despite the handheld system selling better. Not to say the Wii version will sell better than NSMB on DS, especially in Japan, but it's not outside of possibility.

Games like Layton, Tomodachi Collection, Rhythm Tendoku and whatever have been games that have sustained good momentum for DS. Wii could still have games like that come up, along with the obvious biggies like NSMBW. Then there's DQX, but that's a long way off, and Nintendo need more than Zelda Wii and some sequels to Wii Sports and Wii Fit to push Wii up.

 

[Yoboman]

Wii isn't really behaving like PS1. PS1 started off slow and then really shot off a couple years after launch when things like FF VII started hitting. Wii started off hot, but it's about that two-years-after-launch time when they started having trouble finding the Next Big Thing.

Since I don't have decent weekly numbers for PS1 here's a shipment comparison--but do note both PS1 and PS2 numbers are Sony's old production numbers, so not perfectly comparable to the actual shipment numbers everyone uses today.

Come to think of it, perhaps PSP is not so unlike PS1. It too took a few years before it really shot off. Wii is still ahead of where PSP was at the same age, but that could change next year.

I'd like to see where PS3 is tracking next to PS1

 

[donny2112]

I'd like to see where PS3 is tracking next to PS1

Nintendo's the only company that still releases shipment numbers divided by region. Just looking at the sales LTD, it's just under half of what PS1 was at by this point.

 

[m.i.s.]

Wii's fortunes are discussed here on a regular basis but aren't individuals overlooking one obvious detail?

That even Nintendo weren't expecting the level of success upon the Wii's reception. Hence, ther decision to mitigate the risk with circa-2001 GCN chipset.

Satoru Iwata said they expected the Wii to be a secondary console alongside PS3 and 360. It was never intended to be a market leader console and not designed as such.

That Nintendo's inabliity to capitalise on the Wii's commercial success is not bearing fruit is because it was never intended to be a market leader.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

That even Nintendo weren't expecting the level of success upon the Wii's reception. Hence, ther decision to mitigate their losses with circa-2001 GCN chipset.

Losses?

 

[m.i.s.]

Losses?

Fixed.

 

[gerg]

Wii's fortunes are discussed here on a regular basis but aren't individuals overlooking one obvious detail?

That even Nintendo weren't expecting the level of success upon the Wii's reception. Hence, ther decision to mitigate their losses with circa-2001 GCN chipset.

Satoru Iwata said they expected the Wii to be a secondary console alongside PS3 and 360. It was never intended to be a market leader console and not designed as such.

That Nintendo's inabliity to capitalise on the Wii's commercial success is not bearing fruit is because it was never intended to be a market leader.

The Wii's selling badly because Nintendo doesn't want it to sell well?

To go from non-existent to market leader, with the baggage Nintendo had coming into this generation and still have? I think PS1 makes more sense than any other comparison. Yes, it's not 1:1 but it's certainly closer than Wii to PS2.

My problem with this line of thinking is that the Wii will probably be the PS1 to the Wii2's PS2 in the West as well, and there it's still selling better than the PS2.

Anyway, the graphs JoshuaJSlone posted were really informative. I think that if the Wii can ever get above 17 million sales, it will be a success.

 

[Durante]

The Wii's selling badly because Nintendo doesn't want it to sell well?

No, I think his point is that Nintendo wasn't prepared to support a market-leading console because they didn't expect it to be. I'm not sure I agree, but this technique of misrepresenting people's posts and then ridiculing that misrepresented point is used annoyingly often in these threads.

 

[gerg]

No, I think his point is that Nintendo wasn't prepared to support a market-leading console because they didn't expect it to be. I'm not sure I agree, but this technique of misrepresenting people's posts and then ridiculing that misrepresented point is used annoyingly often in these threads.

I didn't mean to misrepresent his post, so I apologize.

Nevertheless, after the Wii's first year of 3.6 million sales, did Nintendo not realise that the Wii would be the market leader? Furthermore, would they then not have had time enough to gain support for the console down the line? Essentially, the idea that Nintendo didn't believe that the Wii would be successful as it is only really holds for a very short time before its success became readily apparent.

 

[Spiegel]

I didn't mean to misrepresent his post, so I apologize.

Nevertheless, after the Wii's first year of 3.6 million sales, did Nintendo not realise that the Wii would be the market leader? Furthermore, would they then not have had time enough to gain support for the console down the line? Essentially, the idea that Nintendo didn't believe that the Wii would be successful as it is only really holds for a very short time before its success became readily apparent.

Yeah, it's an awful excuse.

 

[maeh2k]

Nintendo really isn't to blame here. It's the fault of the third parties. Looking at the Wii's third party lineup it never stood a chance to be as successful as the previous market leaders.
Except for Nintendo's own, all the big, hyped games are on other platforms.

 

[gerg]

Nintendo really isn't to blame here. It's the fault of the third parties. Looking at the Wii's third party lineup it never stood a chance to be as successful as the previous market leaders.
Except for Nintendo's own, all the big, hyped games are on other platforms.

And who could have convinced those third parties to put their games on the Wii? At the risk of repeating an oft-held discussion, that company would have been Nintendo. And that's why the fact that the Wii is essentially four or five million units behind the PS2 (at a comparative point in its lifetime) is so surprising - that's four or five million sales the Wii will most likely never have. And that's four or five million lots of $X profit that Nintendo may never have, plus all the software sales that would have accompanied those hardware sales. It's no longer a case of Nintendo conceding hardware sales for overall profit; it's a case of Nintendo conceding hardware sales and overall profit, and from that perspective it's hard not to consider that Nintendo has fucked the Wii in Japan.

Of course, this outlook is premature until the generation ends and the Wii really stops selling, but based on where the Wii is now a gloomy forecast is quite validated.

 

[Bebpo]

Nintendo really isn't to blame here. It's the fault of the third parties. Looking at the Wii's third party lineup it never stood a chance to be as successful as the previous market leaders.
Except for Nintendo's own, all the big, hyped games are on other platforms.

This fall Wii has arguably the best 3rd party lineup of all the systems. Especially for Japanese tastes.

FF game
Tales game
RE game
SH game
S&P2

Add in NSMB Wii and you have a lineup that's on par with any of the PS2 fall years. The difference is just that, unlike the PS2, the wii audience isn't buying the games.

 

[Durante]

Now that's stretching it a bit. A "FF game" on PS2 could have been FFX or even X-2, while the one on Wii is ... FFCCCB.

 

[schuelma]

This fall Wii has arguably the best 3rd party lineup of all the systems. Especially for Japanese tastes.

FF game
Tales game
RE game
SH game
S&P2

Add in NSMB Wii and you have a lineup that's on par with any of the PS2 fall years. The difference is just that, unlike the PS2, the wii audience isn't buying the games.

I think that's a vast oversimplification there. I do agree that this holiday's 3rd party lineup in Japan is actually solid..but the problem is right now there isn't much announced for 2010 and so this solid lineup won't mean much in the long run if that's the end of the line.

 

[Bebpo]

Now that's stretching it a bit. A "FF game" on PS2 could have been FFX or even X-2, while the one on Wii is ... FFCCCB.

Even as FF and RE and SH are spinoffs, I'd still argue it's a very strong 3rd party lineup. Fall 09 is the first time I've been constantly enjoying my Wii since launch.

 

[lyre]

No one in any territory gives a fuck about Sin and Punishment 2!

 

[wrowa]

Even as FF and RE and SH are spinoffs, I'd still argue it's a very strong 3rd party lineup. Fall 09 is the first time I've been constantly enjoying my Wii since launch.

SH? Are you speaking about Silent Hill? That's hardly a strong IP anymore. Already SH4 only sold 67k units in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

SH? Are you speaking about Silent Hill? That's hardly a strong IP anymore. Already SH4 only sold 67k units in Japan.

That's a lot more than FFCC!

 

[wrowa]

That's a lot more than FFCC!

Eh, maybe you should check SH4's first week sales

 

[Arpharmd B]

And who could have convinced those third parties to put their games on the Wii? At the risk of repeating an oft-held discussion, that company would have been Nintendo. And that's why the fact that the Wii is essentially four or five million units behind the PS2 (at a comparative point in its lifetime) is so surprising - that's four or five million sales the Wii will most likely never have. And that's four or five million lots of $X profit that Nintendo may never have, plus all the software sales that would have accompanied those hardware sales. It's no longer a case of Nintendo conceding hardware sales for overall profit; it's a case of Nintendo conceding hardware sales and overall profit, and from that perspective it's hard not to consider that Nintendo has fucked the Wii in Japan.

Of course, this outlook is premature until the generation ends and the Wii really stops selling, but based on where the Wii is now a gloomy forecast is quite validated.

Yeah I mean Nintendo has publicly admitted to dropping the ball in Japan. Really though, I thought they were being modest, and I thought the combination of Monster Hunter, price drop, Wii Fit Plus, Wii Sports Resort, and NSMBWii would have been enough for them to be cleanly ahead of Sony. But now that I see what is really going on (haven't followed these threads in some time) I'm very puzzled as to what happened here. They were not being modest after all.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Given the lack of first day sales and most likely any DSi LL sales not coming until Monday-Tuesday, good time to discuss about which next week titles we could predict. See Chris1964 list. Thought it'd be easier, but doesn't seem so. Last 2 puyo puyo games on both PSP or Wii didn't start in top30. Cooking Mama 2 didn't either. So I'm left with: Layton 4, Higurashi PSP, Joysound DX Wii, Momotaro 2010 Wii and Naruto 4 Wii. But quite a few questions about those: the Higurashi is a Mega Edition of a last year title on the same dates that managed top10 (so I suppose it'll be smaller), I'm not really sure if Joysound DX is a proper sequel or repackage or something, Momotaro on Wii isn't anywhere as strong as it was on PS2 or DS (previous one barely made top30), and Naruto on Wii has been going down with each new title (last one #24 start).

Some help would be appreciated

 

[schuelma]

Given the lack of first day sales and most likely any DSi LL sales not coming until Monday-Tuesday, good time to discuss about which next week titles we could predict. See Chris1964 list. Thought it'd be easier, but doesn't seem so. Last 2 puyo puyo games on both PSP or Wii didn't start in top30. Cooking Mama 2 didn't either. So I'm left with: Layton 4, Higurashi PSP, Joysound DX Wii, Momotaro 2010 Wii and Naruto 4 Wii. But quite a few questions about those: the Higurashi is a Mega Edition of a last year title on the same dates that managed top10 (so I suppose it'll be smaller), I'm not really sure if Joysound DX is a proper sequel or repackage or something, Momotaro on Wii isn't anywhere as strong as it was on PS2 or DS (previous one barely made top30), and Naruto on Wii has been going down with each new title (last one #24 start).

Some help would be appreciated

Wow...outside of Layton I'm not sure anything will break 30K. Maybe give Momotaro a chance?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Dragona's point:
Wii cannot achieve what PS2 did. Therefore, it is screwed.

Not quite. Nintendo sat on its ass and therefore screwed the potential of the Wii in Japan, when it was tracking to beat the PS2. Two fucking years ago.

My point is that Nintendo fucked the Wii in Japan. Hence:

I guess Dragona can speak for herself, but I'm pretty sure you've mischaracterized her point. As I understand it, the point of wiifucked.jpg is that Nintendo had a hit product, executed poorly, and now its sales are weak.

MS and Sony's poor performance isn't particularly germane.

Yay someone gets it!

 

[gkryhewy]

At least we've gotten past the point where LoudNinja shows up every week with a drumroll and hard nipples in anticipation of Dragona posting that chart. At least, I think we are.

 

[schuelma]

For anyone that follows the comgnet preorder rankings. NSMB Wii certainly looks like its going to be absolutely massive (like possibly coming close to or equalling NSMB DS's first week).

 

[Loudninja]

At least we've gotten past the point where LoudNinja shows up every week with a drumroll and hard nipples in anticipation of Dragona posting that chart. At least, I think we are.

huh? :/

 

[BlazingDarkness]

huh? :/

you got called out! ur popular

 

[Cygnus X-1]

For anyone that follows the comgnet preorder rankings. NSMB Wii certainly looks like its going to be absolutely massive (like possibly coming close to or equalling NSMB DS's first week).

I doubt. No evidence of such a hype behind the game.

 

[schuelma]

I doubt. No evidence of such a hype behind the game.

What evidence are you looking for?