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[Aquamarine]

Nintendo's operating profits (negative numbers = operating loss) by year:

FY3/2004: 107,683
FY3/2005: 111,522
FY3/2006: 90,349
FY3/2007: 226,024
FY3/2008: 487,220
FY3/2009: 555,263
FY3/2010: 365,567
FY3/2011: 171,076
FY3/2012: -37,320
FY3/2013: -20,000 (projected)
FY3/2014: 100,000 (Iwata's commitment)

(Units of measurement = Millions of yen)

The thing is, Nintendo's projections aren't unreasonable at all. In fact, their 2014 FY prediction is around 60% of what they made in 2011.

100 billion yen SHOULD NOT be a hard target for Nintendo to achieve, especially given their history throughout the past decade.

It's perfectly reasonable for an investor to be upset + want Iwata out if Iwata can't achieve this.

Nintendo has never had a year in the past 10 when one of their systems was losing money while the other one wasnt doing fantastically to pick up the slack, not to mention the vast increase in game development costs. I just dont see it being attainable if they have to pricecut.

Oh I know that... I'm just saying that from an investor's point of view, a 100 billion yen commitment is not some "lofty, unreasonable mark," given the size of Nintendo. It's a perfectly reasonable commitment that Nintendo SHOULD have been able to achieve if their management hadn't completely messed up the Wii U.

But yes, a 100 billion fiscal year does seem contingent on at least one of Nintendo's consoles doing very well worldwide.

The 3DS is mediocre outside of Japan, and the Wii U is failing worldwide. It would take a major, MAJOR paradigm shift to change Nintendo at this point.

In fact, if the Wii U sales don't pick up, I could see ANOTHER operating loss in FY 2014 for Nintendo. Now THAT would secure the future of Iwata....three years in a row of operating losses...

 

[VanWinkle]

Those games were released more than one year ago. Soul Sacrifice will be lucky to be in the Top 20 next month.

Is that (12-11-15) not a release date on Monster Hunter? Because that would put it at only a few months old. Unless that is something else entirely.

 

[test_account]

when was this? it's hilarious

Haha I don't know, but somehow I had it saved!!

I found it here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yneRfVCy3Lo

Swedish hockey it seems.

 

[michaelius]

Is that (12-11-15) not a release date on Monster Hunter? Because that would put it at only a few months old. Unless that is something else entirely.

That's release date of budget SKU

 

[Acquiescence]

one interesting conversation from last week MC thread regarding the possibility of vita sales going up:-















hongcha, you got it right.

It seems for all the critcism Pachter gets, there sure are some mouthpieces on Gaf who could give him a run for his money.

 

[VanWinkle]

That's release date of budget SKU

Ah okay. Figured it was something like that. Weird that they separate those.

 

[thehypocrite]

I dont know how you came to that conclusion,but miyamoto will likely retire or be put in a much smaller role if iwata leaves.

He is already being moved to a smaller role, however he is phrasing it as his idea (Lol) He is getting off the hook while Iwata is going to be put to pasture Wada style.

 

[L Thammy]

All charts launch-aligned. All numbers from Media Create.

Note, since this draws only from the top 10 it does not represent smaller titles.
e.g., software sales of zero are assumed if the console has no games in the top 10.

Tally of the number of titles for that platform in the top 20 for each week.
I can't find the top 20 for PS3's second week. It has been assumed as zero.

Feel free to criticize or point out mistakes.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Does the vita figure in the op include the bundle? Also the double pack sold 22k the first week, double that and it puts the vita at at least 180k. Add downloads and it should be well above 200k at this point.

Mess.

 

[thehypocrite]

Plan for Soul Sacrifice.

Release a lot of free DLC Missions.
In the Holidays release a Soul Sacrifie ultimate complete edition at a low price.
Announce Soul Sacrifice 2 for Holiday 2014.

 

[Laguna]

Somebody change the shirt name to Laguna, haha.

This is really "funny". Not only did he got punched in the face but his team also lost the game in the end. Quite ironic.

 

[L Thammy]

                                                          Week1             LTD
PSV     Soul Sacrifice                                   105,863          143,456
                    
PSP     God Eater                                        276,104          617,828
PSP     God Eater: Burst (PSP the Best)                    3,602            3,602
PSP     GOD EATER BURST                                  267,178          436,158
                    
PSP     Phantasy Star Portable                           329,455          633,954
PSP     Phantasy Star Portable PSP the Best                 -              40,488
PSP     Phantasy Star Portable 2                         284,883          590,527
PSP     Phantasy Star Portable 2 (PSP The Best)                -           15,274
PSP     Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity               219,477          373,309
                    
PSP     Toriko: Gourmet Survival                          60,528          138,838
PSP     Toriko: Gourmet Survival! 2                       43,790          108,672
                    
PSP     Lord of Arcana                                    90,707          142,388
PSP     Lord of Apocalypse                                17,910           17,910
PSV     Lord of Apocalypse                                29,111           29,111
                    
DS      Monster Busters                                   15,658           61,009
DS      Monster Busters Powered                           15,329           47,648
                    
PSP     Valhalla Knights                                  14,089           64,506
PSP     Valhalla Knights 2                                34,562           89,004
PSP     Valhalla Knights 2: Battle Stance                 13,588           33,271
Wii     Valhalla Knights: Eldar Saga                       4,677           11,613
                    
3DS     E.X. Troopers                                     16,084           22,159
PS3     E.X. Troopers                                     11,359           11,359
                    
DS      Element Hunter                                     4,205           11,635
                    
PS2     Monster Hunter                                   120,640          288,559
PS2     Monster Hunter G                                 128,051          232,239
PSP     Monster Hunter Portable                          118,317          668,964
PS2     Monster Hunter 2                                 368,057          570,651
PSP     Monster Hunter Portable 2nd                      746,313        1,720,397
PSP     Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G                    823,265        2,452,111
Wii     Monster Hunter 3                                 582,548        1,070,743
PSP     Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village     280,521          548,968
PSP     Monster Hunter Portable 3rd                    2,146,467        4,502,446
PS3     Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD Ver.              282,960          404,501
PSP     Monster Hunter Portable 3rd (PSP the Best)        15,113          299,008
3DS     Monster Hunter 3G                                471,055        1,585,493
WiiU    Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate                        110,149          195,213

 

[VanWinkle]

Mess.

What's a mess?

 

[extralite]

It's called smart business strategy and something Nintendo should follow.

Why isn't Luigi's Mansion 2 not on Wii U also? Seems like a stupid business strategy not make your own games multiplatform across your own systems.

Hardware is too different to easily make the same games. Still, as we're seeing with Smash and Iwata's announcement of unifying handheld and console teams, cross platform does seem to play a role in Nintendo's future strategy.

So you don't think Wii U would have benefited from having LM2 on it as well?

Why make the game exclusive to 3DS?

The original LM for GC was one of the first games announced for the Wii U VC, iirc. That is similar to DQVII followed by DQX. Sell one game of a popular franchise on the more popular hardware first and hope that some of the same players will buy the other installment on the Wii U when they're finished with the 3DS one. So instead of putting the same game on both platforms they're putting similar games of the same franchise on both platforms, but leave a bit of time inbetween.

Also, as DeathCobra mentioned in last week's thread, LM2 is #1 on the eShop charts. And it's only the second game after AC to outsell all the cheaper DD-only titles (as well as the VC ones), in whatever timeframe is compared in the recent charts. DQVII and Paper Mario came close too but were second to AC which just kept selling enough for #1 until very recently. Other recent eShop #1s include Shaun the Sheep 3D videos and VC Oracle Zeldas.

As DD becomes more accepted, Gamecube VC could help the Wii U in the coming months. At least keep it above 10000.

 

[saichi]

Well that still excludes doubling the double pack sales which would probably add another 20k in units owned. Also the Vita is a first of its kind type device with regards to downloadable games. Every game is available to download and is easily accessible. Also SS fits the bill of a game that users would want on their Vita at all times and thus digital sales could be anywhere between 30-50k at this point. Which isn't too far fetched given the limited info we know about digital downloads on the Vita. so I think it has actually crossed 200k if you were to include all skus and it may not have as much retail legs because the digital version will offset it slightly.

Edit: actually that sku in the media create excludes the double pack all together, and perhaps the Vita bundle.

Famitsu number included bundle and double pack and it's at 145.998. adding 20K would make it at ~166K after 3 weeks. That's the sale pattern of a game that sells 200K at retail instead of 250K.

Also, I'm not sure how 50K for digital sales is not far fetched since it's over 30% of the retail sales. Is that the bar for VITA digital sales now?

By the way, what are everyone's expectations for DQ next week? I'd say that below 20k systems and 100k copies of the game should be the absolute minimum. There seems to be a vested effort to downplay the game, but it's far and away the most significant third party release we know of left for the system, it underperforming could have significant implications on future software announced from here on.

I don't think anyone is downplaying it. It is just you who have unrealistic expectation.

 

[erpg]

Soul Sacrifice's performance needs to be better. I'm really disappointed that it isn't catching on, given the positive impressions.

 

[GulAtiCa]

The original LM for GC was one of the first games announced for the Wii U VC, iirc.

I don't think GC VC on Wii U has even been mentioned other then a "maybe"

 

[VanWinkle]

Famitsu number included bundle and double pack and it's at 145.998. adding 20K would make it at ~166K after 3 weeks. That's the sale pattern of a game that sells 200K at retail instead of 250K.

Also, I'm not sure how 50K for digital sales is not far fetched since it's over 30% of the retail sales. Is that the bar for VITA digital sales now?



I don't think anyone is downplaying it. It is just you who have unrealistic expectation.

Some PlayStation guy said that on average a third of Vita game sales are digital.

 

[Trigonx]

That´s interesting since DoAD released at a time when the 3DS suffered its biggest difficulties and had a smaller userbase than PSV.

3DS hardware | week of release 17.240 | 18.324 | ltd 1.013.259
PSV hardware | week of release 41.073 | 36.028 | ltd 1.435.089

It´s concerning that it doesn´t sell well especially since it´s actually a competent fighting game, instead Senran Kagura beats it handily on both systems.

Senran Kagura benefited like DOA Dimensions did, they both released after a drought in games. DOA Dimensions came 3 months after 3ds launch. Senran Kagura came out after the holiday drought.

DOA5+ comes at the tail end of a packed release schedule.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

Hardware is too different to easily make the same games. Still, as we're seeing with Smash and Iwata's announcement of unifying handheld and console teams, cross platform does seem to play a role in Nintendo's future strategy.



The original LM for GC was one of the first games announced for the Wii U VC, iirc. That is similar to DQVII followed by DQX. Sell one game of a popular franchise on the more popular hardware first and hope that some of the same players will buy the other installment on the Wii U when they're finished with the 3DS one. So instead of putting the same game on both platforms they're putting similar games of the same franchise on both platforms, but leave a bit of time inbetween.

Also, as DeathCobra mentioned in last week's thread, LM2 is #1 on the eShop charts. And it's only the second game after AC to outsell all the cheaper DD-only titles (as well as the VC ones), in whatever timeframe is compared in the recent charts. DQVII and Paper Mario came close too but were second to AC which just kept selling enough for #1 until very recently. Other recent eShop #1s include Shaun the Sheep 3D videos and VC Oracle Zeldas.

As DD becomes more accepted, Gamecube VC could help the Wii U in the coming months. At least keep it above 10000.

I don't think GC titles for Wii U have ever been anounced.

 

[L Thammy]

Announce Soul Sacrifice 2 for Holiday 2014.

Interesting thing. Look at that list I posted. Besides the Monster Hunter series and Valhalla Knights 2, each of those games sold less than their previous installment.

Valhalla Knights 2 came after Portable 3rd (when the MH's shot from 600K to 1,700K). Seems to be the first one in the series to market the game as a MH-like title.

 

[pieatorium]

Some PlayStation guy said that on average a third of Vita game sales are digital.

That includes download only titles. afaik the only DD stuff we have heard is 10% for Miku and 15-20% for Ubisofts titles.

Other than that it's pointless to speculate.

 

[VanWinkle]

That includes download only titles. afaik the only DD stuff we have heard is 10% for Miku and 15-20% for Ubisofts titles.

Other than that it's pointless to speculate.

Oh did he end up clarifying that or are you assuming?

 

[pieatorium]

Oh did he end up clarifying that or are you assuming?

I thought it was mentioned in the thread, if it is unclear whether or not DD only titles are included that makes it even more pointless to discuss.

 

[saichi]

Some PlayStation guy said that on average a third of Vita game sales are digital.

Is that in Japan since we never have any confirmed report on that? The closest one we got is a Miku spokesperson says the standard is 10%.

 

[VanWinkle]

Is that in Japan since we never have any confirmed report on that? The closest one we got is a Miku spokesperson says the standard is 10%.

I don't know. You asked if 30% is the bar now and I said that a guy from Sony said that a third of sales are digital. That's the closest we have to an answer. Miku's digital sales may be 10% but that doesn't speak for all game's digital sales.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Miku also doesn't have as compelling an argument to own digitally that Soul Sacrifice does.

Soul Sacrifice's performance needs to be better. I'm really disappointed that it isn't catching on, given the positive impressions.

Without details of digital sales it is hard to know for sure if it is catching on. Have 20k or 50k downloaded the game? I think it is safe to assume at least 20k have so far. Then how many of the new owners are buying it digitally instead of at retail? I think it is hard to sing praises for SS or be down on it completely without knowledge of its digital performance.

 

[thehypocrite]

Interesting thing. Look at that list I posted. Besides the Monster Hunter series and Valhalla Knights 2, each of those games sold less than their previous installment.

Valhalla Knights 2 came after Portable 3rd (when the MH's shot from 600K to 1,700K). Seems to be the first one in the series to market the game as a MH-like title.

I think that it will improve it's performance if they play their cards right, Budget releases allow you to expose the IP to more consumers, thus increasing the potential for them to be enticed to pick on the sequel sooner. The game is still in the top 20 and we know that its performance on the digital front has it placed on the top of the charts. Sony has also announced extensive free DLC to sustain the presence of the title in the media. In addition we know that Sony is motivated to grow this new IP and it has been best performer of the portable initiatives, so they can put their marketing muscle behind it to expand.

They should release a new bundle of PSV+Soul Sacrifice Complete Edition for the holidays 2013.

 

[Celestial]

Soul Sacrifice's performance needs to be better. I'm really disappointed that it isn't catching on, given the positive impressions.

It is doing okay for Vita standars.Keep in mind there is the double pack and the digital sales.

 

[airmangataosenai]

By the way, do we have LTD comparisons for Wii U to Gamecube? I remember seeing a chart comparing since the Wii U launched but not showing figures week to week comparing it to Gamecube since its September 2001 launch.

 

[thiscoldblack]

Very happy for Vita and OPM2 sales. Hopefully, it continues this trend.

 

[L Thammy]

I think that it will improve it's performance if they play their cards right, Budget releases allow you to expose the IP to more consumers, thus increasing the potential for them to be enticed to pick on the sequel sooner. The game is still in the top 20 and we know that its performance on the digital front has it placed on the top of the charts. Sony has also announced extensive free DLC to sustain the presence of the title in the media. In addition we know that Sony is motivated to grow this new IP and it has been best performer of the portable initiatives, so they can put their marketing muscle behind it to expand.

They should release a new bundle of PSV+Soul Sacrifice Complete Edition for the holidays 2013.

I'm sure that it's possible to grow the IP. There's just not much precedent for games of its type doing that, so I don't think it's a likely scenario.

How did Soul Sacrifice's marketing compare to God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable's? Would the marketing costs inflate for the sequel in order to keep it at the original's sales level?

 

[Road]

By the way, do we have LTD comparisons for Wii U to Gamecube? I remember seeing a chart comparing since the Wii U launched but not showing figures week to week comparing it to Gamecube since its September 2001 launch.

one interesting conversation from last week MC thread regarding the possibility of vita sales going up:-

If OPM2 was supposed to be the Vita's next biggest game, someone forgot to tell Bandai Namco and Sony.

How do you read my post?

 

[MasterSheen]

By the way, do we have LTD comparisons for Wii U to Gamecube? I remember seeing a chart comparing since the Wii U launched but not showing figures week to week comparing it to Gamecube since its September 2001 launch.

Also want to see if Vita has passed Dreamcast yet.

 

[Celestial]

WOW i knew WiiU was doing bad in Japan but this is soooo bad.The worst thing though it is EU and USA where WiiU doesnt ''exist'' and have fallen even lower from Gamecube levels since January.

 

[airmangataosenai]

Thanks Road! Yeah, I remembered that wall of Gamecube sales from a while back but couldn't remember if it was supposed to hit it this week or the next one.

Also want to see if Vita has passed Dreamcast yet.

Pretty sure it's tracking above Dreamcast, but Dreamcast did somewhere well over 1 million units before it was totally killed off. Vita is at 1.4 million and up until recently it was tracking below Dreamcast.

 

[Lord_Byron28]

I expected a lot more from Luigi's Mansion.

What were people expecting from this? It did about as good as could be expected from a title that hasn't received an entry in 12 years and the original didn't set the world on fire either. It did great and doubled Paper Mario's debut which also had the holidays to help boost it.

 

[Currygan]

So can people stop saying 'we need to wait until next week to see how Vita does' now, then?

didn't people say the same about bad Vita sales and how the next holiday would be the real test?

 

[VanWinkle]

didn't people say the same about bad Vita sales and how the next holiday would be the real test?

Yup. Everyone is the same, with their own little fanboy agenda.

It's not doing well? Wait until next week!

It's doing too well? Wait until next week!

 

[Meier]

Very nice hold for the Vita. Be curious to see how long they can keep it up. Nintendo needs a big new hit to reassert dominance.. what is the next BIG game to launch? Anything until Pokemon?

 

[MasterSheen]

Very nice hold for the Vita. Be curious to see how long they can keep it up. Nintendo needs a big new hit to reassert dominance.. what is the next BIG game to launch? Anything until Pokemon?

Tomodachi Collection, right before Golden Week.

 

[Father_Brain]

didn't people say the same about bad Vita sales and how the next holiday would be the real test?

A lot of us, myself included, were overly pessimistic about how quickly Vita HW sales would drop after the initial price cut/SS bumps. It's completely fair to point that out, of course, but that doesn't mean that the price cut can be pronounced more than a short-term success yet.

Now, given the software lineup, if it actually manages to hold steady for the next couple weeks... then I'll have a lot more crow to eat than I've had thus far.

 

[AniHawk]

vita's doing a pretty good job of sticking around. i think sony might have been successful in altering its fate, at least in japan. its floor is probably a lot higher than the 7k-11k it was before.

wii u seems to have reached its own floor, which is 9k-11k. that's not too bad after literally no games have been hitting the machine.

luigi's mansion did really damn well for its first week. i honestly didn't expect those numbers- maybe half of what it did.

 

[Mpl90]

Luigi's debut vs. The Brother and The other Green hero (Famitsu)

[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 (Nintendo) - 301.080 / 301.080 / 100,00% 20/03/13

The Brother

[GCN] Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo) - 280.610 / 789.989 / 35,52% 19/07/02
[N64] Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) - 162.111 / 1.639.921 / 9,89% 23/06/96
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 344.698 / 1.825.838 / 18,88% 03/11/11
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.341 / 1.021.470 / 25,10% 01/11/07
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 337.569 / 1.012.632 / 33,34% 27/05/10

The other Green hero

[GCN] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo) - 287.346 / 742.609 / 38,69% 13/12/02
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Nintendo) - 386.234 / 1.143.570 / 33,77% 21/11/98
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (Nintendo) - 314.044 / 601.542 / 52,21% 27/04/00
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo) - 288.282 / 902.386 / 31,95% 23/06/07
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 320.940 / 740.109 / 43,36% 23/12/09
[WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) - 194.894 / 337.452 / 57,75% 23/11/11

 

[metalslimer]

Luigi's debut vs. The Brother and The other Green hero (Famitsu)

[3DS] Luigi's Mansion 2 (Nintendo) - 301.080 / 301.080 / 100,00% 20/03/13

The Brother

[GCN] Super Mario Sunshine (Nintendo) - 280.610 / 789.989 / 35,52% 19/07/02
[N64] Super Mario 64 (Nintendo) - 162.111 / 1.639.921 / 9,89% 23/06/96
[3DS] Super Mario 3D Land (Nintendo) - 344.698 / 1.825.838 / 18,88% 03/11/11
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy (Nintendo) - 256.341 / 1.021.470 / 25,10% 01/11/07
[WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 337.569 / 1.012.632 / 33,34% 27/05/10

The other Green hero

[GCN] The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo) - 287.346 / 742.609 / 38,69% 13/12/02
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (Nintendo) - 386.234 / 1.143.570 / 33,77% 21/11/98
[N64] The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (Nintendo) - 314.044 / 601.542 / 52,21% 27/04/00
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (Nintendo) - 288.282 / 902.386 / 31,95% 23/06/07
[NDS] The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (Nintendo) - 320.940 / 740.109 / 43,36% 23/12/09
[WII] The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Nintendo) - 194.894 / 337.452 / 57,75% 23/11/11

Dont see how anyone could be dissapointed it did great, LM3 definitely wont take a decade

 

[Afrit]

How do you read my post?

Not sure. I think it implies that Namco-Bandai and Sony didn't expect OP2 to be big for Vita.

While in reality, I think they might had higher expectation for the overall sales and it turn out to be decent only, but manged to push some Vitas.

 

[Celestial]

Very nice hold for the Vita. Be curious to see how long they can keep it up. Nintendo needs a big new hit to reassert dominance.. what is the next BIG game to launch? Anything until Pokemon?

Tomodachi Collection will be really big and with it's legs it will become the new Animal Crossing.It coming in golden week or a week before if i am not mistaken.

 

[matmanx1]

I expected sub 25k for Vita this week so that 37-41k number is surprising to me. I just completely underestimated the effect on hardware sales that having a good month of consistent software releases would have. Sub 25k next week? Certainly possible.

Good numbers for Luigi. The game sounds like it's the real deal so I'm glad for it's success. 3DS is hitting on all fronts right now and I hope it continues.

I'm a little disappointed in D2: Dimensions and DOA:5+. Both numbers seem low to me although they both might be the victim of being released into a crowded month with too many other titles stealing the show. I can't speak for the quality of D2 but DOA:5+ is an excellent port that deserves good sales. Maybe the rest of the world will pick up the slack although it is a port and it is on the Vita so probably not!

 

[saichi]

I don't know. You asked if 30% is the bar now and I said that a guy from Sony said that a third of sales are digital. That's the closest we have to an answer. Miku's digital sales may be 10% but that doesn't speak for all game's digital sales.

1. A third of sales are digital would mean that digital is at 50% of retail. So if we want to speculate, shouldn't we start assuming digital number is 50% of retail numbers in Japan?

2. If the information you posted was not for Japan market, it wouldn't be applicable. Japanese market is vastly different from the west. It wouldn't be the closest we have for an answer at all.

3. the 10% figure actually applies to all games based on the same source.

Nakanohito says that the download version of F sold about 10% of the package version. He believes this is a typical figure for games.

 

[thehypocrite]

I'm sure that it's possible to grow the IP. There's just not much precedent for games of its type doing that, so I don't think it's a likely scenario.

How did Soul Sacrifice's marketing compare to God Eater and Phantasy Star Portable's? Would the marketing costs inflate for the sequel in order to keep it at the original's sales level?

I think they are comparable, pretty much equal. In regards to your other questions I think it depends if famitsu increases their prices